UK Politics: Trumpy Cat Trumpy Cat Where Have You Been?

[Denvek]

Wouldn't the clear "not-like-Catalonia" line be the fact that the UK isn't in the EU? (as by the time of a hypothetical Scottish Yes vote Brexit would almost certainly have been completed).

[Chaircat Meow]

I love the subtitle of the current petition. The phrasing is so weird.

''We in Scotland are fed up of persecution by the SNP leader who is solely intent on getting independence at any cost. As a result, Scotland is suffering hugely.''

You can sign the petition here.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/180642

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

That would still need explaining, how Scotland is suffering as a result of IndyRef2?

[Werthead]

Sinn Fein also looking to get a unification referendum underway. That's really unlikely to fly (either the referendum or a vote in favour if it did), but the fact it's even on the table is startling.

Interesting arguments on C4 News. They point out that Scotland might be forced to join the Euro if it does gain independence, which would likely go down like a lead balloon.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Wouldn't they need to join the Euro if they managed to join the EU as a new member state anyway?

[Chaircat Meow]

Did Sturgeon actually say she wanted to rejoin the EU? Did not actually listen to her speech (could not be bothered). It is the SM they are mainly going on about, right?

[Werthead]

2 minutes ago, Notone said:

Wouldn't they need to join the Euro if they managed to join the EU as a new member state anyway?

Technically, although how flexible that "rule" is remains to be seen. The Euro itself is desperately unpopular even in countries where the EU itself is popular and being able to join the EU but not the Euro is quite tempting. Of course, supporters of the Euro want new members to be forced to join the Euro to help bolster it.

Scotland I suspect would like to "stay within" the EU (i.e. the rUK leaves but Scotland is still in it) but it appears that this will be impossible.

[Maltaran]

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Sinn Fein also looking to get a unification referendum underway. That's really unlikely to fly (either the referendum or a vote in favour if it did), but the fact it's even on the table is startling.

 

There is an actual provision for this in the Good Friday Agreement. I can't remember how one can be triggered, but I do recall they need to win referenda on both sides of the border to get a united Ireland.

[Chaircat Meow]

6 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Technically, although how flexible that "rule" is remains to be seen. The Euro itself is desperately unpopular even in countries where the EU itself is popular and being able to join the EU but not the Euro is quite tempting. Of course, supporters of the Euro want new members to be forced to join the Euro to help bolster it.

Scotland I suspect would like to "stay within" the EU (i.e. the rUK leaves but Scotland is still in it) but it appears that this will be impossible.

Sweden is in breach, I believe. It is hard to see how the EU forces someone to accept its currency, tbh.

It does go to show though, for all that pompous nationalists like to blather on about Scotland being a European country: Scotland only wants to be an EU member on British terms.

[Chaircat Meow]

A new poll for the Times by Yougov apparently reveals collapsing support for separatism. 57% Remain to 43% Leave. I can't get a hold of tables at the moment though. Yougov will put them out in due course.

This will poll could be an outlier though. Mori and BMG show a very different picture (albeit it this poll will have been partially conducted after Sturgeon's speech).

edit: got a bit excited with the 'collapsing' thing. The poll actually shows an insignificant swing to Remain from November, it just shows much higher support for the UK than the recent BMG and Mori polls.

further edit: survation poll, post-FM speech, 53/47 Remain/Leave, no changes from last poll.

[mormont]

11 hours ago, Werthead said:

Interesting arguments on C4 News. They point out that Scotland might be forced to join the Euro if it does gain independence, which would likely go down like a lead balloon.

Well, at present Scotland can't be forced to join, because it doesn't meet the convergence criteria. So it would actually be forbidden from joining.

But in the longer term, I understand that membership would be a goal, which leads to the somewhat bigger problem: while the EU would likely be happy to allow an independent Scotland to join, it wouldn't be happy to give us the exceptions and exemptions that existed for the UK. That might well deter a lot of Scottish voters who voted to Remain.

[DJDonegal]

In addition to the Euro, I believe the implementation of Schengen is also a requirement for new EU states. Another hurdle that I would imagine will be less than popular in an independent Scotland.

[mormont]

25 minutes ago, DJDonegal said:

In addition to the Euro, I believe the implementation of Schengen is also a requirement for new EU states. Another hurdle that I would imagine will be less than popular in an independent Scotland.

I'm not so sure about that. I'd be all in favour of Schengen. The major negative is usually considered to be easier migration, but remember that Scotland has different demographics and actually needs more immigration. That's not to say immigration is necessarily popular in Scotland, but many of the usual anti-immigrant arguments are harder to sell, as the failure of UKIP to take hold here has shown.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

The Biggest problem Scotland will face if it is in the Schengen zone, is that at the moment open board with the rest of the UK.  I'm assuming Scotland would like to keep that an open boarder as I assume its crossed a lot more often.

 

But I guess what might happen there in a hypothetical future may end up being similar to what happens with the Northern Irish boarder.

 

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

1 hour ago, mormont said:

I'm not so sure about that. I'd be all in favour of Schengen. The major negative is usually considered to be easier migration, but remember that Scotland has different demographics and actually needs more immigration. That's not to say immigration is necessarily popular in Scotland, but many of the usual anti-immigrant arguments are harder to sell, as the failure of UKIP to take hold here has shown.

Scotland has been relatively unaffected by immigration. I'm sure if they started to get london percentages of migrants then the local populace opinion might change quite rapidly 

[Chaircat Meow]

The petition calling on the British Parliament to block another referendum is now at 110,000 signatures.

 

[mormont]

4 minutes ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

Scotland has been relatively unaffected by immigration. I'm sure if they started to get london percentages of migrants then the local populace opinion might change quite rapidly 

Well, since more immigration in an area tends to be associated with less concern about immigration, I'm not sure it would. London, since you mention it, has a relatively relaxed attitude to immigration - in fact attitudes in Scotland and London are already fairly similar!

http://opinium.co.uk/divided-britain-exploring-attitudes-towards-immigration/

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

5 minutes ago, mormont said:

Well, since more immigration in an area tends to be associated with less concern about immigration, I'm not sure it would. London, since you mention it, has a relatively relaxed attitude to immigration - in fact attitudes in Scotland and London are already fairly similar!

http://opinium.co.uk/divided-britain-exploring-attitudes-towards-immigration/

Yes that is the standard argument , and I myself am a Londoner, voted remain and have very little issue with immigration.

but the argument ignores a number of factors. Mainly that london is made up of roughly 37% foreign born nationals already, people who have not really experienced the change in demographics in such a small space of time and don't have such a solid view of their nationality , that london has a large exodus of its native population due to a number of factors such as house prices. The south east voted for leave and that's where most of these people moved out to. They might not live in london any more but they know what it's like, and many areas outside of london are changing rapidly too. 

its just such an easy way to paint anyone concerned by immigration levels as ignorant racists, that these people don't know what they are talking about and are imagining a problem,  and that's what gets to me. It is entirely valid to have concerns about rapid immigration to an area and not be racist or thick.  

[Channel4s-JonSnow]

The difference is also that Scotland is almost entirely white British. That is not the case for london. As soon as that changes over a small space of time you just wait to see what happens. 

[mormont]

19 minutes ago, Channel4s-JonSnow said:

Yes that is the standard argument

It's not an argument: it's an observed fact that attitudes to immigration are a, more positive in areas with higher immigrant populations and b, already similar in Scotland and in London.

The idea that the relatively tolerant attitude in Scotland is down to lack of immigration while the relatively tolerant attitude in London is down to high immigration? That's an argument, and a poor one. One that appears to be an attempt to accommodate your belief that London levels of immigration in Scotland will produce a different reaction than London levels of immigration in London. But you offer no real reason to think that, other than that you believe it.