The second dance of dragons ?

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

That is the whole point. Firstly, why include this rumour?

To make the Cannibal even weirder and more special, perhaps? There are a lot of rumors and theories discussed in the books. We also don't buy the idea that Lann the Clever lived 312 years, that there was only one King Durran, that Sansa transformed into a winged wolf, or that Stannis is a skinchanger who took possession of the boar that killed King Robert.

The smallfolk also believes some dragon lives between Winterfell. Do we believe that? It is a fancy explanation for the hot springs, after all.

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

It is a total anomaly among all of the Dragons recorded in the book. And secondly, for it to be only a rumour, rather than an established fact, pretty much the only viable explanation is that he indeed disappeared for long periods, thus leading any serious scholar to discount the fanciful tale that he had in fact been observed by such and such a peasant's grandfather 40 years earlier. Such a tale would be scoffed at, and dismissed as the uneducated ramblings of a superstitious commoner.

Actually, if the Cannibal were absent for long periods of time then people would indeed consider the possibility that the dragon that came back wasn't him but another dragon entirely, possibly offspring of his. If he was away for decades (for which there is no evidence) then there wouldn't have been a way to determined whether black dragon #1 was the same as black dragon #2 or not.

As far as we know there are no dragon researchers in Westeros&Dragonstone, either. If nobody actually counts and oversees the dragons on the island then all the people living there would have were rumors and talk. Especially since one should assume that only the foolish people would actually look for a dragon. Most people would stay away from them. 

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for his lair. It was his current lair during the Dance that was well known - and presumably the lair he had been seen entering and emerging from during his latest period of activity. A period that likely extended back for some decades, as he was definitely known at the time to predate Sheepstealer.

So now we are assuming the Cannibal had more than just one lair? Why should we do that?

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Or let's put it differently. Either the smallfolk rumour is true or it is not. If it is not true, then there is nothing special about Cannibal, and he wasn't an old or long lived dragon at all. He was maybe 80 or so years old, and died at some point after the Dance. But if the smallfolk rumour IS true, and he was the same dragon from before 114BC, then the only way for it not to be a recorded fact would be for him to have vanished periodically, due to either hibernating or migrating to another location for extended periods of time.

The Cannibal is confirmed to have been the oldest of the wild dragons. That would make him somewhat older than (about) eighty years since we know that Sheepstealer hatched when the Old King was still young and we don't know when exactly that was - could have been in Jaehaerys I childhood. If that was the case the Cannibal would have hatched during the reign of the Conqueror before the birth of Jaehaerys I. He could have been one of the six dragons which hatched during Aegon's reign, for instance.

The whole cannibalism thing still makes him special as well as the fact that he disappeared without a trace. If he had died then his carcass would have been found. And many of the dragon carcasses that fell into the sea (or the Gods Eye) showed up again - Vhagar's, Arrax's, possibly even Vermax's. If the Cannibal had died of, say, old age in his lair or had fallen from the sky because he could no longer fly around, or if he had died somewhere on the island people would have found him. But apparently they did not. That's odd. Dragonstone and Blackwater Bay isn't some backwater like the Mountains of the Moon. Perhaps there are some cliffs or caves up there were a dragon could disappear without a trace. But not Dragonstone and the waters around it.

39 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Or became "petrified" by some magic (or the lack of it) and this would solve the apparent contradiction between the death of dragons and end of magic.

That is an interesting notion I forgot to mention above. Keep in mind that dragon eggs feel like stone and are very much connected to stone. Could it be that dragons also resemble stone under certain circumstances? We don't know, but it would not be implausible.

39 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

"Dragons," Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros... "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all."

Suggesting there are more "dragons" than people think.

Yeah, but both Aemon and Bloodraven would qualify as old dragons. It is difficult to say whether Moqorro is talking about people or literal dragons there. Drogon would qualify as a dark dragon, Viserion as a bright dragon. You can also go with a metaphorical interpretation of 'true' and 'false', say, a true dragon being a Targaryen staying true to the mission and a false one being one who betrays his friends, etc.

39 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

and in the HOTU visions

"Glowing like sunset, a red sword was raised in the hand of a blue-eyed king who cast no shadow. A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd. From a smoking tower, a great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire."

People have been wondering for years the meaning of this. As it sounds GRRM is stopping short of saying a stone dragon. Among the iterpretations are that it is some kind of metaphorical beast like a plague (greyscale), another creature that looks like a dragon but it isn't or some power unleashed by Melisandre (she is getting stronger at the wall and thinks she can create powerful shadows). The problem with the later interpretation is that Stannis seems to be already in the vision as the blue-eyed king and therefore implicitly Melisandre. 

The stone beast in relation to Dragonstone is an important point. Keep in mind that Mel and Selyse pushed Stannis to sacrifice Edric in ASoS so they could wake the stone dragons the Valyrians made to form the citadel of Dragonstone. And those stone dragons were also introduced as dreadful things back in Cressen's Prologue. There seems to be something there, a plot thread George might intend to explore in the future when the story returns to Dragonstone.

Now, I don't believe that anybody could revive the stone dragons in the Dragonstone citadel. But a huge dragon (the Cannibal) sort of turned to stone somewhere beneath the castle/in the bowels of the Dragonmount? Such a beast surely could be awakened by accident or resurrected by a huge blood sacrifice.

39 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Euron doesn't appear at all in the visions, or so we think. Why is he not there? Maybe the great stone beast is somehow related to him? Euron changed his plans regarding Dany and her dragons after his discussion with the Reader.

Unless the stone beast isn't going to have something to do with greyscale, tying it to Shireen and/or Connington, I'd expect Euron to be involved there. He is the important antagonistic figure not showing up in the House of the Undying despite the fact that he must already have been in George's mind at that point. The buildup for Euron begins in Theon's ACoK chapters, after all.

39 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Do we have some foreshadowing about the hatching of new dragons?

Nothing concrete but if there are additional dragon eggs there is no reason why there shouldn't be more dragons. One also expects that Dany's dragons might procreate sooner rather than later.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

16 hours ago, RumHam said:

Do you have the link to the exact quote? I remember what you mean but I thought there was some ambiguity. It's been a while, but I seem to recall he left the door open for a connection between skinchanging and the dragon-rider bond. 

<snip

I think I copied it down in a selection of SSMs that I found of particular interest. I'll check the files. You may be right about the ambiguity. I thought it was pretty well stated, but George is notorious for being very careful with his wording.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If the Cannibal is anywhere then he is still on Dragonstone. Dragonstone was introduced as a very creepy and eerie place with all those stone dragons and the Dragonmount in the background all the way back in Cressen's Prologue. With Stannis leaving no POV has been there in quite some time but that might change. Connington and/or Arianne might go there soon, considering that Aegon would won't to reclaim the ancestral stronghold of House Targaryen soon enough.

The Cannibal remained an unclaimed dragon until he disappeared. He would have had no reason whatsoever to go to Skagos. Sheepstealer might, if Nettles ever had any reason to leave the Mountains of the Moon (but I don't think she did, and thus I assume that both Nettles and Sheepstealer eventually died up there).

I remember a report from some Q&A where he was sort of reluctant to comment on the possibility of a skinchanger taking possession of a dragon.

<snip

I see your point, but I think it very unlikely that a dragon could be living on Dragonstone all these years with no one knowing about or mentioning it. Dragonstone being weird isn't a big deal, it was a Valyrian holding even before the Targaryens showed up. It's going to have creepy, dragon-themed architecture. 

The key point is that Cannibal disappeared, as you mention. How does a dragon disappear on the island he's spent his whole life, one that is not only inhabited but well known and frequently traveled to by mainlanders? How did he survive without taking cattle etc from the inhabitants holdings? 

No reason to go to Skagos. Do dragons need reasons to do things? I'm not being snotty here, it's a legitimate question. They are magical beings but they are also still animals. An animal will leave its natural environment for a number of reasons. Too many people. Too little food. Either of those could easily apply to Dragonstone. 

Now, why Skagos? A fair question. Keep in mind I'm not saying I think he's absolutely there, just that it's worth considering. Here's why Skagos: 1) convenient to the story because (a) interactions with Skagosi by mainlanders are extremely limited, (b) we'll have a POV there with Davos when he arrives (if he arrives) to collect Rickon and Shaggydog, and (c) much closer to both Winterfell and the Wall for purposes of fighting Others and wights; 2) fewer people in general, and fewer still who know how to kill a dragon that keeps eating their livestock; 3) if Cannibal were to leave his island home, he would most likely settle on another island if possible.

That report you mention may be the one RumHam and I are discussing. Definitely will find it, even if it's not in my files (though it will take me a lot longer).

[Free Northman Reborn]

23 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

To make the Cannibal even weirder and more special, perhaps? There are a lot of rumors and theories discussed in the books. We also don't buy the idea that Lann the Clever lived 312 years, that there was only one King Durran, that Sansa transformed into a winged wolf, or that Stannis is a skinchanger who took possession of the boar that killed King Robert.

The smallfolk also believes some dragon lives between Winterfell. Do we believe that? It is a fancy explanation for the hot springs, after all.

Actually, if the Cannibal were absent for long periods of time then people would indeed consider the possibility that the dragon that came back wasn't him but another dragon entirely, possibly offspring of his. If he was away for decades (for which there is no evidence) then there wouldn't have been a way to determined whether black dragon #1 was the same as black dragon #2 or not.

As far as we know there are no dragon researchers in Westeros&Dragonstone, either. If nobody actually counts and oversees the dragons on the island then all the people living there would have were rumors and talk. Especially since one should assume that only the foolish people would actually look for a dragon. Most people would stay away from them. 

So now we are assuming the Cannibal had more than just one lair? Why should we do that?

The Cannibal is confirmed to have been the oldest of the wild dragons. That would make him somewhat older than (about) eighty years since we know that Sheepstealer hatched when the Old King was still young and we don't know when exactly that was - could have been in Jaehaerys I childhood. If that was the case the Cannibal would have hatched during the reign of the Conqueror before the birth of Jaehaerys I. He could have been one of the six dragons which hatched during Aegon's reign, for instance.

The whole cannibalism thing still makes him special as well as the fact that he disappeared without a trace. If he had died then his carcass would have been found. And many of the dragon carcasses that fell into the sea (or the Gods Eye) showed up again - Vhagar's, Arrax's, possibly even Vermax's. If the Cannibal had died of, say, old age in his lair or had fallen from the sky because he could no longer fly around, or if he had died somewhere on the island people would have found him. But apparently they did not. That's odd. Dragonstone and Blackwater Bay isn't some backwater like the Mountains of the Moon. Perhaps there are some cliffs or caves up there were a dragon could disappear without a trace. But not Dragonstone and the waters around it.

That is an interesting notion I forgot to mention above. Keep in mind that dragon eggs feel like stone and are very much connected to stone. Could it be that dragons also resemble stone under certain circumstances? We don't know, but it would not be implausible.

Yeah, but both Aemon and Bloodraven would qualify as old dragons. It is difficult to say whether Moqorro is talking about people or literal dragons there. Drogon would qualify as a dark dragon, Viserion as a bright dragon. You can also go with a metaphorical interpretation of 'true' and 'false', say, a true dragon being a Targaryen staying true to the mission and a false one being one who betrays his friends, etc.

The stone beast in relation to Dragonstone is an important point. Keep in mind that Mel and Selyse pushed Stannis to sacrifice Edric in ASoS so they could wake the stone dragons the Valyrians made to form the citadel of Dragonstone. And those stone dragons were also introduced as dreadful things back in Cressen's Prologue. There seems to be something there, a plot thread George might intend to explore in the future when the story returns to Dragonstone.

Now, I don't believe that anybody could revive the stone dragons in the Dragonstone citadel. But a huge dragon (the Cannibal) sort of turned to stone somewhere beneath the castle/in the bowels of the Dragonmount? Such a beast surely could be awakened by accident or resurrected by a huge blood sacrifice.

Unless the stone beast isn't going to have something to do with greyscale, tying it to Shireen and/or Connington, I'd expect Euron to be involved there. He is the important antagonistic figure not showing up in the House of the Undying despite the fact that he must already have been in George's mind at that point. The buildup for Euron begins in Theon's ACoK chapters, after all.

Nothing concrete but if there are additional dragon eggs there is no reason why there shouldn't be more dragons. One also expects that Dany's dragons might procreate sooner rather than later.

Lord Varys

Let me start by saying that you know by now that I really enjoy our debates and discussions. However, they also leave me extremely frustrated at times. Mainly because - and in this instance I have a good example of it - of your habit of ocassionally using two directly contradictory points to argue for the same intended outcome that you favour. And usually, although it irks me immediately,  the issue then gets lost in the immensity of the text that follows in the rest of your always comperehensive posts. So allow me to hone in on the contradictory point before I lose my focus again.

The example in this case, is the issue of whether a Cannibal that predates 114BC would be noticed or not. In the earlier post on the topic, you insisted that if he had been around that long it would have been recorded. You in fact said:

"...we do know that this rumor is originates with the smallfolk and is discarded by the people who should know their stuff, notably Septon Barth and Grand Maester Munkun. Barth was the Hand of Jaehaerys I for forty years and interested in dragonlore. He would have had access to Dragonstone and any records that were kept there yet he had no reason to believe that this dragon was that old."

So with the above your argument was that if the dragon was really so old, people would have known about it and recorded it. So I duly addressed that point and explained at some length why that would not necessarily be the case if the dragon disappeared for long periods of time. And then, after I go to the effort of making this point, you respond with the following:

"As far as we know there are no dragon researchers in Westeros&Dragonstone, either. If nobody actually counts and oversees the dragons on the island then all the people living there would have were rumors and talk. Especially since one should assume that only the foolish people would actually look for a dragon. Most people would stay away from them. "

So how do I respond to such an argument. If you want the Dragon to be on the records, then you say Septon Barth and company would have studied the lore and recorded his existence. And if you don't want him to be in the records, you say there are no dragon researchers on Dragonstone, so nobody woudl actually know exactly which dragons live there.

As a fair and passionate debater, I'm sure you would agree that this is an argument I cannot win. What instead holds true here, is that you favour a certain answer, and will make the argument fit that answer.

Same with the lair issue. You say he only has one lair. But then you suggest there may be another hidden cave where he may have died/hibernated in in the cliffs or some such scenario.

All of the above options are possible. But none of them preclude or make less likely the idea that he predated the Targaryens. Your scenario is also possible. But the facts you use to try and prove it do not favor it any more than the alternative.

My view: I think the rumour is based on something tangible. Either a wild dragon lineage independent of the Targaryens dragons, or else a long lived vampire dragon in the shape of the Cannibal himself.

[Lost Melnibonean]

1 hour ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Yes, there is. And it's a risk posting in this forum when you haven't finished the available books, but that doesn't mean the rest of us can't make an effort. I must have missed where the OP stated how far he or she has read. All I remember is that they haven't read them all and that The George said there will be a second dance.

The OP knows about Aegon. 

[Lord Varys]

@Lady Blizzardborn

The hibernation/stasis idea thing. See above. I laid it out more than once ;-).

Basically the idea is that the entrance and/or parts of the lair of the Cannibal collapsed while he was inside. Thus he disappeared. But he survived, crept down into the heart of the volcano and fell into some sort of stasis there, kept alive by the magical heat of the fires of the earth (which are hotter than dragonfire) as well as the magical sustenance his previous dragon diet provided him with (the horror story trope that cannibalism can prolong your life).

In such a state the Cannibal wouldn't have needed to eat anything, just as the dormant dragon eggs from which Dany's dragons hatched must have retained some dormant traces of life from which living dragons could spring under the correct 'magical conditions'. If Dany's spell had created new dragons from scratch she could have done so without dragon eggs, presumably.

If we assume the Cannibal went to some other place then we have to deal with the question why the hell nobody saw a huge coal-black dragon flying around. The Cannibal was the largest of the wild dragons, possibly approaching Vhagar or Vermithor is size.

Skagos would also have been a rather crowded place during that Skagos Rebellion a few decades later. Surely the Starks would have picked up on those rumors about a dragon living on the island. People eventually learned where Nettles had gone, too.

Since I don't expect the Cannibal to become a 'good dragon' should he ever show up (i.e. one fighting against our main protagonists) I don't see him fighting the Others, either. A dragon feeding on dragons is precisely the kind of adversary to put against Dany's dragons. Especially since they are still pretty young.

@Free Northman Reborn

Sorry for the confusion. That is not intentional. Barth and Munkun lived during the reign of Jaehaerys I/Dance/Regency, and later on. The non-existing dragon researchers I was speaking about would have been among the smallfolk and the people not intimately associated with the Targaryens on Dragonstone and the Iron Throne later on. The people with whom those rumors about the Cannibal apparently originated. They would have told each other tales and rumors about those dragons that lived on the Dragonmount and the Targaryen hatcheries near/at the citadel of Dragonstone. But they would have never investigated those dragons in any professional manner. And a lot tales would have been spun about this black dragon who feeds on his own. That is weird and exciting.

In fact, we are the best examples for this kind of thing. We are also speculating about the Cannibal which is pretty much the same as Dragonstonian grandfather scaring his grandchildren at the hearth fire in winter, telling them a horror story about that old dragon that had been always up that mountain, even before the dragonlords came from the east.

Barth and Munkun (during whose lifetimes the Cannibal had been alive) would have heard stories about his absences and reappearances if such things were prone to happen. They (and then we as well, if this was important) should have heard about such things if they happened. They had access to Targaryen knowledge and lore about the dragons - their names, birth dates, color, etc., some things that wouldn't have been as easy available to the commoners. 

All I'm saying is that we should not yet by the idea that the Cannibal is insanely old by the time of the Dance. Not while we don't have all that much good evidence for that. That is usually my general approach to the story. You only buy into rumors and the like when evidence suggests that there might be something to them - in TWoIaF when magic is discussed. Then Barth is mostly/always right when Yandel cites him. George uses rumors a lot in the story to show how information is twisted and distorted when it spreads around. ASoS introduced that Jon Connington drank himself to death across the Narrow Sea. ADwD revealed that this was a purposefully spread lie.

Yandel and Gyldayn and not personally investigating rumors, they are referencing rumors the people living during the Dance referred to in their writings. You cannot say everything somebody put on paper is important or true. It isn't.

As to the lair: I suggested the entrance or part of his lair might have been destroyed by some eruption (or a similar thing) resulting in people believing he was gone. It actually would work better if only parts of the lair was collapsed since people eventually daring to pay it a visit would never have investigated it while the Cannibal was still there, so they would not necessarily have known how far it had originally extended into the mountain.

It is also possible that nobody saw the Cannibal for quite some time, and then there was some small eruption some time later, and people only realized later still that the lair of the Cannibal had probably been destroyed during that event. People would then not necessarily jump to the conclusion that he was dead - explaining why history recounts his disappearance at the end of the Dance rather than declaring him dead.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

@Lady Blizzardborn

The hibernation/stasis idea thing. See above. I laid it out more than once ;-).

Basically the idea is that the entrance and/or parts of the lair of the Cannibal collapsed while he was inside. Thus he disappeared. But he survived, crept down into the heart of the volcano and fell into some sort of stasis there, kept alive by the magical heat of the fires of the earth (which are hotter than dragonfire) as well as the magical sustenance his previous dragon diet provided him with (the horror story trope that cannibalism can prolong your life).

In such a state the Cannibal wouldn't have needed to eat anything, just as the dormant dragon eggs from which Dany's dragons hatched must have retained some dormant traces of life from which living dragons could spring under the correct 'magical conditions'. If Dany's spell had created new dragons from scratch she could have done so without dragon eggs, presumably.

If we assume the Cannibal went to some other place then we have to deal with the question why the hell nobody saw a huge coal-black dragon flying around. The Cannibal was the largest of the wild dragons, possibly approaching Vhagar or Vermithor is size.

Skagos would also have been a rather crowded place during that Skagos Rebellion a few decades later. Surely the Starks would have picked up on those rumors about a dragon living on the island. People eventually learned where Nettles had gone, too.

Since I don't expect the Cannibal to become a 'good dragon' should he ever show up (i.e. one fighting against our main protagonists) I don't see him fighting the Others, either. A dragon feeding on dragons is precisely the kind of adversary to put against Dany's dragons. Especially since they are still pretty young.

@Free Northman Reborn

Sorry for the confusion. That is not intentional. Barth and Munkun lived during the reign of Jaehaerys I/Dance/Regency, and later on. The non-existing dragon researchers I was speaking about would have been among the smallfolk and the people not intimately associated with the Targaryens on Dragonstone and the Iron Throne later on. The people with whom those rumors about the Cannibal apparently originated. They would have told each other tales and rumors about those dragons that lived on the Dragonmount and the Targaryen hatcheries near/at the citadel of Dragonstone. But they would have never investigated those dragons in any professional manner. And a lot tales would have been spun about this black dragon who feeds on his own. That is weird and exciting.

In fact, we are the best examples for this kind of thing. We are also speculating about the Cannibal which is pretty much the same as Dragonstonian grandfather scaring his grandchildren at the hearth fire in winter, telling them a horror story about that old dragon that had been always up that mountain, even before the dragonlords came from the east.

Barth and Munkun (during whose lifetimes the Cannibal had been alive) would have heard stories about his absences and reappearances if such things were prone to happen. They (and then we as well, if this was important) should have heard about such things if they happened. They had access to Targaryen knowledge and lore about the dragons - their names, birth dates, color, etc., some things that wouldn't have been as easy available to the commoners. 

All I'm saying is that we should not yet by the idea that the Cannibal is insanely old by the time of the Dance. Not while we don't have all that much good evidence for that. That is usually my general approach to the story. You only buy into rumors and the like when evidence suggests that there might be something to them - in TWoIaF when magic is discussed. Then Barth is mostly/always right when Yandel cites him. George uses rumors a lot in the story to show how information is twisted and distorted when it spreads around. ASoS introduced that Jon Connington drank himself to death across the Narrow Sea. ADwD revealed that this was a purposefully spread lie.

Yandel and Gyldayn and not personally investigating rumors, they are referencing rumors the people living during the Dance referred to in their writings. You cannot say everything somebody put on paper is important or true. It isn't.

As to the lair: I suggested the entrance or part of his lair might have been destroyed by some eruption (or a similar thing) resulting in people believing he was gone. It actually would work better if only parts of the lair was collapsed since people eventually daring to pay it a visit would never have investigated it while the Cannibal was still there, so they would not necessarily have known how far it had originally extended into the mountain.

It is also possible that nobody saw the Cannibal for quite some time, and then there was some small eruption some time later, and people only realized later still that the lair of the Cannibal had probably been destroyed during that event. People would then not necessarily jump to the conclusion that he was dead - explaining why history recounts his disappearance at the end of the Dance rather than declaring him dead.

His age before the Dance doesn't really affect his fate thereafter. It would merely add an additional layer of mystery and depth to the world, to me at least, if we had a dragon with a different geneology and with previously unknown magicallly granted longevity characteristics to it. Predating the Targaryens on Dragonstone would make it a true mystery dragon. Which would be thrilling. But not necessary for the future story.

As for the method by which he could be alive. I don't share your view that a mundane explanation such as a collapsed tunnel would explain his survival. You already agree with the premise that his canniballistic habits likely have a role to play in his potential longevity. (I might add then, if you agree with that, why insist that it only started relatively recently, rather than in years (or centuries) before 114BC. If the principle is sound, then the duration of the longevity could be almost anything.

In any case, regarding his fate. The tunnel collapse doesn't fit, for me. Why not just suggest that after the last dragons died, he lost his source of sustenance, and crawled into the depths of the mountain of his own volition to hibernate deep inside the volcano where no human could ever explore? Why the weird tunnel collapse idea?

I guess again, the difference is some type of mysterious intentional hibernation, rather than a freak accident that just got him stuck in some tunnel. The former appeals to me more.

But that is if he stayed at Dragonstone. I still have a liking for the Skagos idea. And again, in this case, I believe that the points you raise to refute it, are by no means established facts, or even real issues that support your argument. You ask why no one saw the dragon fly there? Because the world is friggin big, and there is a lot of empty sky out there. Maybe some herd boy in the Vale, or fisherman off of Widow's Watch did see him. But who was he gonna tell? The King's Landing Times? The Westeros Wide Web? It would have been a nice campfire tale in his village, and died out or faded to some localized folk tale within a generation. A brief glimpse of something black high up in the distant sky. If anyting. No one saw Flight MH370 either, and it is as big as dragon, in a vastly more populated world than Westeros is.

Secondly, Skagos itself is 300 miles long, cut off from the world, rugged, wild and insular. The map does not give one a true sense of the size of these lands. Skagos is the size of England. With maybe one tenth or one twentieth the population of medieval England. There are strong hints that it is volcanic in nature. And who knows how isolated some volcanic peak in its interior might be? For all we know some tribe of locals know about the beast, and worship it or something. Or saw it enter a volcanic vent only to never be seen again.

The point is, the options are numerous. I don't think any of them can be discounted simply by saying the dragon would have been seen or word would have spread. Same with the assertion that dead dragon corpses would always be seen. No they won't. If it fell into the deep ocean, the sharks would devour it and the heavy high iron content dragonbones would sink. Even in our own world there are planes that crash in mountains and are only discovered decades later. Imagine a dragon that fell in some rugged mountain terrain and decomposed before a human ever set eyes on it.

I fear that too many things are stated as certain common sense assertions, like a dragon would have been seen in this place or that, when logic requires no such thing. Too many possibilities are discounted due to incorrect statements of truth.

[Clegane'sPup]

22 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Way to spoil things for the OP who clearly stated they have not finished all the books yet.

I am an adult that fits the description of one of the dragons. You are an adult. I assume @Blueroses is an adult.

Below is what the OP said in the opening post.

On 2/1/2017 at 8:54 AM, Blueroses said:

I don't know if this has been discussed before but I didn't find any related subject, so I hope it's the right place to discuss it...

I haven't read all the books yet but I read a lot on the history of the world of ASOIAF on the internet, and when reading about the dance of the dragons

It is not my or anyone's responsibility to regulate spoiler material when the OP states the following.

On 2/1/2017 at 8:54 AM, Blueroses said:

I am a "Jon+Rhaegal" fan, because of RLJ, (even if I don't think Jon will fight the WW of the top of a dragon) and since I got this idea, it's been bothering me because I don't see Jon as someone who would go to war for a crown.

 

[Curled Finger]

On 2/2/2017 at 1:54 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Drogon is now fully bonded to Dany. No one can take him from her. She rode on top of him with her bloody cunnie, a mix of her own blood and a miscarriage.

Dany is important in Euron's plans but my take is she's not the priority.

 I doubt very seriously if Dany did indeed ride Drogon while in the process of miscarriage that their bond was secured, deepened or fulfilled.   The bond with dragons occurs while the dragon is in the egg.  

[rotting sea cow]

7 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

That was remarkably crude.  And uneducated.  A person shouldn't speak of a woman's functions if he has no idea what occurs.  I doubt very seriously if Dany did indeed ride Drogon while in the process of miscarriage that their bond was secured, deepened or fulfilled.   The bond with dragons occurs while the dragon is in the egg.  Please don't reply.   I can't take any more of that.  

As I said in a PM, I apologize for it. I edited the post to sound a little less rude.

Regarding the bond of the dragon, I do think it occurs during the egg or hatching process but the taming requires much more effort. Drogon is a particularly wild dragon (not a the level of Cannibal though) so he required particular strength to tame. He spat fire at Dany and almost her at the Daznak's Pit and didn't obey further orders from Dany afterwards.

And there is this interesting quote from GoT

"Yet when she slept that night, she dreamt the dragon dream again. Viserys was not in it this time. There was only her and the dragon. Its scales were black as night, wet and slick with blood. Her blood, Dany sensed."

That's why I think her blood was important there.

Apologies again, I'm not in this forum to troll or insult people. I participate in some political forums for that

[rotting sea cow]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yeah, but both Aemon and Bloodraven would qualify as old dragons. It is difficult to say whether Moqorro is talking about people or literal dragons there. Drogon would qualify as a dark dragon, Viserion as a bright dragon. You can also go with a metaphorical interpretation of 'true' and 'false', say, a true dragon being a Targaryen staying true to the mission and a false one being one who betrays his friends, etc.

Yes, I know. He might refer to Targaryens, dragon riders or literal dragons. Or a mix of everything. But it is nevertheless suggesting of more players in the alleged Dance 2.0.

The bright and dark do not refer to colors though. Neither the true and false refer to their possible missions.

Generally the 'false dragon' is interpreted as someone posing as a dragon, typically assumed being Aegon.  Another possibility I read today, is that Melisandre will be able to create a glamour stone creature able to breath shadow fire, which however won't be a dragon. So it could also fit in the HOTU vision and Moqorro prophesy.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The stone beast in relation to Dragonstone is an important point. Keep in mind that Mel and Selyse pushed Stannis to sacrifice Edric in ASoS so they could wake the stone dragons the Valyrians made to form the citadel of Dragonstone. And those stone dragons were also introduced as dreadful things back in Cressen's Prologue. There seems to be something there, a plot thread George might intend to explore in the future when the story returns to Dragonstone.

Yes, at some point we need to come back to Dragonstone.

Another possibility is that Davos smuggling of Edric Storm averted something and the 'great stone beast' will not happen. Similarly as Rhaego vision won't happen either. I'm not fully convinced of this however.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Now, I don't believe that anybody could revive the stone dragons in the Dragonstone citadel. But a huge dragon (the Cannibal) sort of turned to stone somewhere beneath the castle/in the bowels of the Dragonmount? Such a beast surely could be awakened by accident or resurrected by a huge blood sacrifice.

Yeah.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Unless the stone beast isn't going to have something to do with greyscale, tying it to Shireen and/or Connington, I'd expect Euron to be involved there. He is the important antagonistic figure not showing up in the House of the Undying despite the fact that he must already have been in George's mind at that point. The buildup for Euron begins in Theon's ACoK chapters, after all.

 Me too. I'm however puzzled that Quaithe never warn Dany about Euron. Neither about Marwyn although she might be in contact with him.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Nothing concrete but if there are additional dragon eggs there is no reason why there shouldn't be more dragons. One also expects that Dany's dragons might procreate sooner rather than later.

Well, the only eggs we have heard of, is the one that Euron claims to have 'thrown away' and the alleged egg under Winterfell. Maybe they will play some role, maybe not.  I will find strange that nobody in Lys, Volantis or Pentos (or even Westeros) possess some additional eggs.

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

His age before the Dance doesn't really affect his fate thereafter. It would merely add an additional layer of mystery and depth to the world, to me at least, if we had a dragon with a different geneology and with previously unknown magicallly granted longevity characteristics to it. Predating the Targaryens on Dragonstone would make it a true mystery dragon. Which would be thrilling. But not necessary for the future story.

Well, the Cannibal would essentially have to be Nessie if he was no Valyrian dragon. He would have to be a survivor from the day and age when they were still dragons in Westeros which seems to have been in the Dawn Age and perhaps also the Age of Heroes.

It could be that the Cannibal was brought to Dragonstone by some other dragonlord family - those who originally raised the Citadel, perhaps - but the idea of a dragon living there for thousands of years doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

As for the method by which he could be alive. I don't share your view that a mundane explanation such as a collapsed tunnel would explain his survival. You already agree with the premise that his canniballistic habits likely have a role to play in his potential longevity. (I might add then, if you agree with that, why insist that it only started relatively recently, rather than in years (or centuries) before 114BC. If the principle is sound, then the duration of the longevity could be almost anything.

In any case, regarding his fate. The tunnel collapse doesn't fit, for me. Why not just suggest that after the last dragons died, he lost his source of sustenance, and crawled into the depths of the mountain of his own volition to hibernate deep inside the volcano where no human could ever explore? Why the weird tunnel collapse idea?

The collapse idea is part of the reason why people concluded he disappeared as well as part of the explanation why he is no longer seen despite the fact that he is still on Dragonstone. He supposedly disappeared at the end of the Dance, and he did not only eat dragons. There weren't all that many dragons around, remember? And we know he was eating people as well as dragons, suggesting he might also have eaten various species of animals.

The idea is that the Cannibal had no interest in going into stasis or hibernation. He was forced to do this because he was cut off from the outside world. I don't think dragons do this kind of thing on a regular basis - if they did, a lot of the Targaryen dragons would have shown a similar behavior.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I guess again, the difference is some type of mysterious intentional hibernation, rather than a freak accident that just got him stuck in some tunnel. The former appeals to me more.

Well, I think you making him too special if you go with that.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But that is if he stayed at Dragonstone. I still have a liking for the Skagos idea. And again, in this case, I believe that the points you raise to refute it, are by no means established facts, or even real issues that support your argument. You ask why no one saw the dragon fly there? Because the world is friggin big, and there is a lot of empty sky out there. Maybe some herd boy in the Vale, or fisherman off of Widow's Watch did see him. But who was he gonna tell? The King's Landing Times? The Westeros Wide Web? It would have been a nice campfire tale in his village, and died out or faded to some localized folk tale within a generation. A brief glimpse of something black high up in the distant sky. If anyting. No one saw Flight MH370 either, and it is as big as dragon, in a vastly more populated world than Westeros is.

That would be a good argument if we could assume that a dragon the size of the Cannibal would have had any intention to fly directly to Skagos (Why should he do that? He is an animal!) and keep himself unseen during that time. Nettles might have flown to the Mountains of the Moon trying to hide her movements (say, only fly at night and stay hidden in some woods during the day, never coming close to major population centers) but the Cannibal is an unclaimed dragon. He is a top predator, as deadly you can get, a creature who preys on humans and other similar animals. He has as much reason to hide from humans as an eagle has reason to hide himself from a rabbit.

And then there is the the problem of the explanation why the hell the Cannibal should have gone to Skagos. There is no reason to assume this. Skagos would actually be less likely than, say, Driftmark, Claw Isle, Crackclaw Point, Massey's Hook, Estermont, or Tarth (because those regions/islands are closer to Dragonstone and we also have no idea how many people actually live there). Skagos is literally at the end of the world and it is exceedingly unlikely a dragon looking for food (which would be basically the only reason why he might leave Dragonstone permanently) would fly to that island rather than searching for it on the mainlands of Westeros. He could essentially be anywhere.

If you like the idea of a dragon on Skagos then better suggest that there might be some ancestral dragon in stasis up there rather than a dragon from Dragonstone migrated there for some reason.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Secondly, Skagos itself is 300 miles long, cut off from the world, rugged, wild and insular. The map does not give one a true sense of the size of these lands. Skagos is the size of England. With maybe one tenth or one twentieth the population of medieval England. There are strong hints that it is volcanic in nature.

There are hints about a volcano on Skagos? What are those?

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The point is, the options are numerous. I don't think any of them can be discounted simply by saying the dragon would have been seen or word would have spread. Same with the assertion that dead dragon corpses would always be seen. No they won't. If it fell into the deep ocean, the sharks would devour it and the heavy high iron content dragonbones would sink. Even in our own world there are planes that crash in mountains and are only discovered decades later. Imagine a dragon that fell in some rugged mountain terrain and decomposed before a human ever set eyes on it.

Dragon carcasses don't seem to decompose all that quickly and Arrax and Luke fell into Shipbreaker Bay yet they ended up on the shores a short time later. Even Vhagar eventually resurfaced from the depths of the Gods Eye - there are no technologies in Westeros allowing the people to actually go for dive to try to salvage sunken ships or dragon carcasses even if they are just a dozen meters down.

10 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I fear that too many things are stated as certain common sense assertions, like a dragon would have been seen in this place or that, when logic requires no such thing. Too many possibilities are discounted due to incorrect statements of truth.

The problem is giving a very specific agency to an animal. The Cannibal simply had no reason to go to Skagos. Do I completely dismiss the possibility that he might have ended up there? No. But in such a scenario Skagos never would have been his ultimate destination, and if this wasn't the case then he would have flown up there in an erratic manner, allowing him to be seen by pretty much everybody.

8 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

The bond with dragons occurs while the dragon is in the egg.

That is actually wrong. Daenerys hatched three dragons but she will only mount one of her three dragons at any given time. She could only claim Viserion or Rhaegal after Drogon had died. Historically, Prince Aenys also bonded with a dragon hatchling, not a dragon egg. Maegor, Viserys, Laena Velaryon, Aemond, Helaena, Addam, Ulf, and Hugh also mounted adult dragons who had had riders in the past.

Finally, we know from Aegon the Younger that a dragon, Stormcloud, had hatched from the egg given to him, following him around all the time suggesting some bond. Yet it is stated he still has to mount him. The mounting seals the deal, not being around a dragon or even making a spell to hatch some dragon eggs.

Dany seems to have completed her bond with Drogon when she mounted him in ADwD.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Generally the 'false dragon' is interpreted as someone posing as a dragon, typically assumed being Aegon.

I know that's the general interpretation but this is also somewhat faulty if we assume Aegon still has some Targaryen blood. Is a Blackfyre descendant through the female line no dragon? Perhaps Moqorro just liked to use a lot of contrasts in his figure of speech there. We just hear him talk we see the dragons he might have seen in his flames. And I like to believe that he is also implying that Tyrion is one of them. Dragons can snarl, after all.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Another possibility I read today, is that Melisandre will be able to create a glamour stone creature able to breath shadow fire, which however won't be a dragon. So it could also fit in the HOTU vision and Moqorro prophesy.

That sounds a lot like an ad hoc idea how the thing could still work. It is better to assume the three lies symbolized by the three visions are separate things - Stannis, Aegon, and possibly Euron or something he does.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Another possibility is that Davos smuggling of Edric Storm averted something and the 'great stone beast' will not happen. Similarly as Rhaego vision won't happen either. I'm not fully convinced of this however.

Me neither. But we'll have to wait and see.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Me too. I'm however puzzled that Quaithe never warn Dany about Euron. Neither about Marwyn although she might be in contact with him.

I think Quaithe literally saw Tyrion, Connington, Aegon, Quentyn, and Moqorro prepare to go to her with the help of the glass candle she seems to have. She didn't correctly foresee that Aegon and Connington would turn west instead of east, either.

Euron might actually have been the kraken she saw - until things changed and Victarion came instead.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Well, the only eggs we have heard of, is the one that Euron claims to have 'thrown away' and the alleged egg under Winterfell. Maybe they will play some role, maybe not.  I will find strange that nobody in Lys, Volantis or Pentos (or even Westeros) possess some additional eggs.

The Winterfell thing certainly allows there to be more eggs, just as Aegon's chests do. And if Viserion and Rhaegal mate in the near future there could be an entire clutch of fresh dragon eggs sooner rather than later. We don't know how many they usually produce but the last dragon left a clutch of five eggs, and Syrax also produced quite a few clutches throughout her life.

[Curled Finger]

Bleeding on a dragon completes a bond?  If that was true a man would have to be injured in order to bond.   I understand the logic behind "only death pays for life", but Danny has already paid for her dragons' lives.   I fail to understand how this menses at best and miscarriage at worst effected anything between Dany and Drogon.   It seems to me that in the chaos and horror of the events in the fighting pit, that Dany became finally ready to mount her dragon and he to allow her.   Can anyone explain this final requirement of blood being necessary to mount/command a dragon?  

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Bleeding on a dragon completes a bond?  If that was true a man would have to be injured in order to bond.   I understand the logic behind "only death pays for life", but Danny has already paid for her dragons' lives.   I fail to understand how this menses at best and miscarriage at worst effected anything between Dany and Drogon.   It seems to me that in the chaos and horror of the events in the fighting pit, that Dany became finally ready to mount her dragon and he to allow her.   Can anyone explain this final requirement of blood being necessary to mount/command a dragon?  

I admit it's a speculation from my part (not sure if I've seen it before)

There are probably many ways to tame a dragon. We have in this thread the case of Nettles and Sheepstealer, who was a wild dragon tamed by summer islander (?) giving the dragon a sheep every morning. Maybe others know better that story as well as similar ones.

Valyrians were said to use spells and sorcerous horns.  But even in the later case we have - according to Moqorro - that to claim the horn you need to use your own blood: Fire for blood, blood for fire.

One thing is clear, few if any, actually know how to hatch dragons and how to tame them. That knowledge was lost with the Doom of Valyria. It seems that even the Targaryens were not always 100% successful in their attempts. It may well be that there is no way to always succeed and failure, including death, is commonplace.

Daenerys succeeded thanks to her dragon strong instincts. She was able to hatch the dragons and claim them, who regarded her as their mother. IMO she has bond to the three of them, although is clear that from the beginning that Drogon was special.

In the fighting pit she was able to tame the Drogon for first time, but Drogon carried her wherever he wanted and he refused to carry her afterwards. In the last scenes of ADWD the things are a bit different.

"When the sound of his hooves had  faded away to silence, she began to shout. She called until  her voice was hoarse ... and Drogon came, snorting plumes of smoke. The grass bowed down before him.  Dany leapt onto his back. She stank of blood and sweat and fear, but none of that mattered.  To go forward I must go back,” she said. Her bare legs tightened around the dragon’s neck. She kicked him, and Drogon threw himself into the sky. Her whip was gone, so she used her hands and feet and turned him north by east, the way the scout had gone. Drogon went willingly enough; perhaps he smelled the rider’s fear"

And remember, there are good indications she had a miscarriage the night before.

We strongly suspect that the dragonlords of Valyria did something to their blood so they could better control the dragons. So blood is an important component in the birth, bonding and taming of dragons.

BTW, the Nettles story provides a hint how Tyrion may be able to tame Viserion. He certainly knows that tale.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 2/2/2017 at 5:50 PM, Clegane'sPup said:

I am an adult that fits the description of one of the dragons. You are an adult. I assume @Blueroses is an adult.

Below is what the OP said in the opening post.

It is not my or anyone's responsibility to regulate spoiler material when the OP states the following.

 

I wasn't speaking of responsibility but of courtesy.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 2/2/2017 at 5:04 PM, Lord Varys said:

@Lady Blizzardborn

The hibernation/stasis idea thing. See above. I laid it out more than once ;-).

Basically the idea is that the entrance and/or parts of the lair of the Cannibal collapsed while he was inside. Thus he disappeared. But he survived, crept down into the heart of the volcano and fell into some sort of stasis there, kept alive by the magical heat of the fires of the earth (which are hotter than dragonfire) as well as the magical sustenance his previous dragon diet provided him with (the horror story trope that cannibalism can prolong your life).

In such a state the Cannibal wouldn't have needed to eat anything, just as the dormant dragon eggs from which Dany's dragons hatched must have retained some dormant traces of life from which living dragons could spring under the correct 'magical conditions'. If Dany's spell had created new dragons from scratch she could have done so without dragon eggs, presumably.

If we assume the Cannibal went to some other place then we have to deal with the question why the hell nobody saw a huge coal-black dragon flying around. The Cannibal was the largest of the wild dragons, possibly approaching Vhagar or Vermithor is size.

Skagos would also have been a rather crowded place during that Skagos Rebellion a few decades later. Surely the Starks would have picked up on those rumors about a dragon living on the island. People eventually learned where Nettles had gone, too.

Since I don't expect the Cannibal to become a 'good dragon' should he ever show up (i.e. one fighting against our main protagonists) I don't see him fighting the Others, either. A dragon feeding on dragons is precisely the kind of adversary to put against Dany's dragons. Especially since they are still pretty young.

<snip

Thank you for the recap. I've been having chronic migraines and have been skipping some longer posts due to limiting my computer time.  Magical stasis makes some sense, but I have trouble believing it would mean he wouldn't have to eat for 100+ years. But let's say it's possible. Why can't he have lived in a tunnel on Skagos? The Skagosi trade, among other things, obsidian blades. Unless they are getting those from the mainland north of the Wall, that implies recent (geologically speaking, that is) volcanic activity on the island. There could be a nice cozy spot somewhere for a dragon to curl up.

There's no reason to assume no one saw him flying away. He hasn't been seen in more than a century. Any eye-witness reports of his leaving would have been long-since discarded as baseless legends if they were remembered at all. Also, he could have gone at night, when it was overcast. He was black. No one would have seen a thing. 

The Skagosi Rebellion was during the reign of Daeron II. Daeron's reign began 53 years after the Dance ended. That's more than a few decades, to my thinking. I wouldn't bet on the Starks hearing anything about a dragon, especially if it was in stasis as you suggest. If the Skagosi have any dragons at all, their best hope of ever reclaiming independence would be to have some locals succeed in taming said beast(s). Advertising a dragon's presence is more likely to bring mainlanders trying to tame or kill it.

Excellent point about Cannibal not being a good bet for a protagonist's dragon. He'd be more than 252 years old, bound to be cranky, and yes Dany's dragons would look like a lovely snack to him.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

On 2/1/2017 at 11:31 PM, RumHam said:

Do you have the link to the exact quote? I remember what you mean but I thought there was some ambiguity. It's been a while, but I seem to recall he left the door open for a connection between skinchanging and the dragon-rider bond. 

I dunno. I think that if you accept the magical powers of Dragonblood then you have to allow for the idea that (fictional) genetics might matter in other forms of magic. (see also: Kingsblood)

I think the main thing is that being of "magical" stock is never a guarantee of getting "the right drop" of blood and this is why the Valyrians interbred. 

Found it! Or at least one question. If I find another I'll let you know.

It was a Q&A at ConCarolinas in June 2014.

Q: What can you tell us about a warg dragon rider?

A: There is no history/precedent for someone warging a dragon. There is a rich history of the mythical bond between dragon and rider.  There have been instances of dragons responding to their riders even from very far away (hmm) which shows it is a true and very strong bond. We will learn more about this. Keep reading (we hear “keep writing” from the back of the room).

Link to source: http://www.staceysimms.com/george-r-r-martin-qa/

So yeah there's room for interpretation about it happening in the future.

[40 Thousand Skeletons]

14 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

In the fighting pit she was able to tame the Drogon for first time, but Drogon carried her wherever he wanted and he refused to carry her afterwards. In the last scenes of ADWD the things are a bit different.

"When the sound of his hooves had  faded away to silence, she began to shout. She called until  her voice was hoarse ... and Drogon came, snorting plumes of smoke. The grass bowed down before him.  Dany leapt onto his back. She stank of blood and sweat and fear, but none of that mattered.  To go forward I must go back,” she said. Her bare legs tightened around the dragon’s neck. She kicked him, and Drogon threw himself into the sky. Her whip was gone, so she used her hands and feet and turned him north by east, the way the scout had gone. Drogon went willingly enough; perhaps he smelled the rider’s fear"

And remember, there are good indications she had a miscarriage the night before.

We strongly suspect that the dragonlords of Valyria did something to their blood so they could better control the dragons. So blood is an important component in the birth, bonding and taming of dragons.

BTW, the Nettles story provides a hint how Tyrion may be able to tame Viserion. He certainly knows that tale.

That's an interesting thought. And she almost definitely had a miscarriage.

When she brought her fingers to her face, she could smell the blood on them. Am I dying? Then she saw the pale crescent moon, floating high above the grass, and it came to her that this was no more than her moon blood.

...

The moon is still a crescent, though. How can that be? She tried to remember the last time she had bled. The last full moon? The one before? The one before that? No, it cannot have been so long as that.

...

The sight of so much red frightened her. Moon blood, it's only my moon blood, but she did not remember ever having such a heavy flow. 

[Lord Varys]

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Thank you for the recap. I've been having chronic migraines and have been skipping some longer posts due to limiting my computer time.

Migraines are ugly. I had a few of those in recent months, including all those stupid auras were you can't read or type properly. But thankfully they don't seem to be returning.

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Magical stasis makes some sense, but I have trouble believing it would mean he wouldn't have to eat for 100+ years. But let's say it's possible. Why can't he have lived in a tunnel on Skagos?

He certainly could. But as I've said in another post directed at @Free Northman Reborn I don't see any good reason why the hell a riderless dragon should have flown to Skagos of all places? Why not to Driftmark, Crackclaw Point, Tarth, Estermont, or Massey's Hook? Why not to the Crownlands or King's Landing itself? If he left Dragonstone he would have presumably done so to feed elsewhere.

As a very large dragon he is a top predator. He would have no reason to try to hide himself from humans. And if he did not hide he would have been seen. By many people.

He surely could have ended up on Skagos eventually. But I see no reason why he should have gone up there directly. A rider could have taken him up there in such a fashion. But as far as we know he never had a rider.

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The Skagosi trade, among other things, obsidian blades. Unless they are getting those from the mainland north of the Wall, that implies recent (geologically speaking, that is) volcanic activity on the island. There could be a nice cozy spot somewhere for a dragon to curl up.

I'd assume that obsidian is prevalent in the lands beyond the Wall irregardless of recent volcanic activity. There is no hint that there are any volcanoes either on Skagos or beyond the Wall yet the Children still had an ample supply of obsidian weapons.

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

There's no reason to assume no one saw him flying away. He hasn't been seen in more than a century. Any eye-witness reports of his leaving would have been long-since discarded as baseless legends if they were remembered at all. Also, he could have gone at night, when it was overcast. He was black. No one would have seen a thing.

See above.

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

The Skagosi Rebellion was during the reign of Daeron II. Daeron's reign began 53 years after the Dance ended. That's more than a few decades, to my thinking. I wouldn't bet on the Starks hearing anything about a dragon, especially if it was in stasis as you suggest. If the Skagosi have any dragons at all, their best hope of ever reclaiming independence would be to have some locals succeed in taming said beast(s). Advertising a dragon's presence is more likely to bring mainlanders trying to tame or kill it.

The idea is that if the Cannibal had arrived there he would have been seen by the Skagosi and tales and rumors would have spread that the Starks and Northmen would have then heard when they invaded the island during the rebellion. If the Cannibal would be still alive on Skagos he would have eventually gone into some sort stasis, too, but prior to that he would have fed on beast and men alike. The Cannibal actually seems to be eating men on a regular basis.

9 hours ago, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Excellent point about Cannibal not being a good bet for a protagonist's dragon. He'd be more than 252 years old, bound to be cranky, and yes Dany's dragons would look like a lovely snack to him.

Well, one assumes they will grow in size quickly but, yeah, a battle between these three and the Cannibal could become pretty dangerous.

That is also a reason why I think the Cannibal should resurface on Dragonstone rather than Skagos. On Dragonstone there could be people to claim him at this point in the story (Aegon, Euron, possibly even Arianne or Varys) while him being on Skagos would complicate things in that regard.

And thinking about Dragonstone - if the guys down in the South eventually learn about the threat of the Others (Aegon certainly could receive letters from the Wall and actually read them) - then securing Dragonstone and shipping obsidian to the Night's Watch might become an important issue. With Pycelle being dead we'll also get a new Grand Maester sooner or later (assuming Haldon is not going to fill that spot for the time being after Aegon takes the throne) and that man could be more inclined to believe in stuff than Pycelle was.

[Blueroses]

Thank you Lady Blizzardborn for you courtesy, but since I started the books after season 6 and some internet digging, I am already pretty much spoiled. All the available material take some time to read, specially since I am trying to read them in English, I only stated I haven't read all the books yet in case if there are more "heavy" relevant foreshadowings that I might have missed.

On 01/02/2017 at 9:26 PM, Lady Blizzardborn said:

Some think Jon and Rhaegal are the obvious connection because of his very likely being Rhaegar's son, but others make a decent case for his association with the color white (Stark colors and Ghost) meaning he'll ride Viserion.

Well, that kinda makes sense too, but in this case I think it would had been better to have the dragons names inverted, associating by the way also Viseron to her antagonist/betrayer... Or may be I am according to much importance to the names/colors symbolism while it is not that important...

I read the discussion, while I knew about some wild dragons being present on dragonstone during the Dance, I was not aware of the possibility/theory of any of them survival, I find the theory of the Cannibal really interesting if the we can have a plausible explanation of its disappearance+survival for so long.

Any new dragon hatching would be nice, specially by the end or it's related to a major event but as already stated, wouldn't be relevant for the "second dance", and as far as the dragon hatching in sack of Winterfell, I can't see how a dragon could go completely unnoticed for so long.

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Blueroses said:

 

I read the discussion, while I knew about some wild dragons being present on dragonstone during the Dance, I was not aware of the possibility/theory of any of them survival, I find the theory of the Cannibal really interesting if the we can have a plausible explanation of its disappearance+survival for so long.

Yeah, as I've said the chances for a dragon to survive for a rather long time in some dormant state must be there. But then, dragons are magical creatures and George is completely free in making up rules governing their nature as he sees fit. He already has said that Dany's dragons will grow as large as the story needs them to be. A way to get at that would be to establish that feeding on humans greatly increases the speed in which dragons grow (adding a darker layer to the whole thing). But the Dothraki also have a lot of horses. If Drogon begins to devour a couple of horses each day in the next he should grow pretty large very fast.

17 minutes ago, Blueroses said:

Any new dragon hatching would be nice, specially by the end or it's related to a major event but as already stated, wouldn't be relevant for the "second dance", and as far as the dragon hatching in sack of Winterfell, I can't see how a dragon could go completely unnoticed for so long.

If the Targaryen dynasty survives and is restored to the Iron Throne/rule over Westeros (or even a larger empire) then it would make sense for the dragons to return as well. One or even two of Dany's dragons could die. But they certainly could have had offspring by then.