Who is the True Targaryen Heir?

[Sea Dragon]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We already got the Nissa Nissa parallel with Dany and the dragons. She tried to hatch the eggs three times, and the last time she realized what she had to do - burn her love. If you recall the actual scene on the pyre it is literally Drogo's spirit, his soul taking off into the afterlife on the back of his phantom horse who hatches the dragon eggs. He is the sacrifice. He and everything he could have given Dany (Rhaego, and a life with the Dothraki).

I don't think we are going to revisit that plot later again in the story. It came up in ACoK (shortly after Dany hatched the eggs to explain who she most likely is and who Stannis is not) but that's it. We won't get a bunch of people trying to tamper magical steel by murdering some women. That would be repetitive and strange.

And nobody is going to need some magic sword when Dany and Jon finally meet. They should be needing something bigger at that time. A magical sword is not going to help anyone to defeat the Others.

Everyone can inherit the Targaryen madness. Dany is Aerys II's child, but so was Rhaegar. He turned out pretty fine. Jon (or Aegon) could easily enough succumb to madness as Aerys II's grandchild. Both Prince Rhaegel and Prince Aerion had non-Targaryen mothers yet they succumbed to madness, too. 

My point was that Dany is the universally acknowledged heir and last known scion of House Targaryen right. As of yet nobody questions this. Aegon has a pretty good chance to challenge her on that considering he reached Westeros in her absence, has Rhaegar's old buddy vouch for him, and is likely to win the support of Dorne. Aegon can get himself declared 'Rhaegar's son' by popular vote. 

Jon won't be able to do that. He doesn't have the looks, he doesn't have the connections to Targaryen loyalists, and, quite frankly, nobody would believe his ridiculous story without good evidence. Which he cannot have. The world has Eddard Stark's word on the matter of his parentage. A man who was known to be a man of honor. Why should people suddenly doubt his word.

Yeah but with Jon and his dragon blood, he could ride a dragon and no one can fight that. And other people DO know about Jon's parents. When this happens then I can imagine lots of craziness to happen with people tripping all over their feet to try and sort things out.

[Lord Varys]

20 minutes ago, Sea Dragon said:

Yeah but with Jon and his dragon blood, he could ride a dragon and no one can fight that. And other people DO know about Jon's parents. When this happens then I can imagine lots of craziness to happen with people tripping all over their feet to try and sort things out.

Howland Reed would know. A crannogman of the Neck who are usually treated as scum by the people outside of that place. The Westerosi would not hold their breath if this guy told them some fancy fairy-tale.

Again, a lot of people know that Cersei's children are not Robert's. They received Stannis' letter, know Cersei and the Lannisters by reputation (and perhaps even personally), and realized that this is very likely true. They didn't see any evidence, of course, but they still heard a good tale.

But they don't allow 'the truth' influence their politics. The Lannisters are very powerful and they can profit ignoring those foul rumors.

Nobody in Westeros could profit in any way by believing some story about Ned Stark's bastard actually being Rhaegar Targaryen's son. Especially not after another such son just showed up half an hour ago.

During the Dance of the Dragons a bunch of alleged Targaryen bastards (or descendants of Targaryen bastards) claimed four riderless dragons. But that didn't make them all the sons of princes or kings. And neither would Jon mounting one of Dany's dragons. People already believing the Targaryen parentage tale could see it as evidence but people opposed to that idea could simply brush it aside. Who knows, perhaps Ned Stark fathered Jon Snow on some whore who was a great-great-granddaughter of Aegon the Unworthy?

The idea that the revelation about Jon's true heritage is going to cause much uproar and excitement in the political sphere is exceedingly unlikely. Unless, of course, the political situation drastically changes and Jon is somehow in the midst of a lot of Targaryen fan boys when that happens. But considering that he is in the North right now, and there are few such people up there, and he is not likely to have a huge army should he ever get down south in the meantime (I see him only going down south after the Wall has fallen) I simply see no convincing setting where he could force anybody to listen to this story of his.

Assuming he would even want other people to know this stuff. Right now he should better shut up or else Mel might burn him as a sacrifice. Later on that could change, of course, but we should keep in mind that Jon sees himself as Eddard Stark's son. The idea that he would like the idea that he was actually Lyanna's son by Rhaegar (and thus not Lord Eddard's son) isn't something that should make him very happy.

[Sea Dragon]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Howland Reed would know. A crannogman of the Neck who are usually treated as scum by the people outside of that place. The Westerosi would not hold their breath if this guy told them some fancy fairy-tale.

Again, a lot of people know that Cersei's children are not Robert's. They received Stannis' letter, know Cersei and the Lannisters by reputation (and perhaps even personally), and realized that this is very likely true. They didn't see any evidence, of course, but they still heard a good tale.

But they don't allow 'the truth' influence their politics. The Lannisters are very powerful and they can profit ignoring those foul rumors.

Nobody in Westeros could profit in any way by believing some story about Ned Stark's bastard actually being Rhaegar Targaryen's son. Especially not after another such son just showed up half an hour ago.

During the Dance of the Dragons a bunch of alleged Targaryen bastards (or descendants of Targaryen bastards) claimed four riderless dragons. But that didn't make them all the sons of princes or kings. And neither would Jon mounting one of Dany's dragons. People already believing the Targaryen parentage tale could see it as evidence but people opposed to that idea could simply brush it aside. Who knows, perhaps Ned Stark fathered Jon Snow on some whore who was a great-great-granddaughter of Aegon the Unworthy?

The idea that the revelation about Jon's true heritage is going to cause much uproar and excitement in the political sphere is exceedingly unlikely. Unless, of course, the political situation drastically changes and Jon is somehow in the midst of a lot of Targaryen fan boys when that happens. But considering that he is in the North right now, and there are few such people up there, and he is not likely to have a huge army should he ever get down south in the meantime (I see him only going down south after the Wall has fallen) I simply see no convincing setting where he could force anybody to listen to this story of his.

Assuming he would even want other people to know this stuff. Right now he should better shut up or else Mel might burn him as a sacrifice. Later on that could change, of course, but we should keep in mind that Jon sees himself as Eddard Stark's son. The idea that he would like the idea that he was actually Lyanna's son by Rhaegar (and thus not Lord Eddard's son) isn't something that should make him very happy.

I have not had a chance to read all of the extra books yet, but do you have to in order to understand the story? I would like to, but with classes I have such limited time. I assumed that the story we have is the story and the extra books were just about side characters and not the Song of Ice and Fire.

[The Twinslayer]

12 hours ago, Sea Dragon said:

I have not had a chance to read all of the extra books yet, but do you have to in order to understand the story? I would like to, but with classes I have such limited time. I assumed that the story we have is the story and the extra books were just about side characters and not the Song of Ice and Fire.

Everything you need to know to enjoy and appreciate the main series (A Song of Ice and Fire) is in the five main books:  Game of Thrones, Clash of Kings, Storm of Swords, Feast for Crows, and Dance with Dragons.  There is nothing in the "extra books" that you need to know in order to fully understand that story. 

The extra books are just that: extra.  They fill in some background information on the ancestors of the people in the main story, and there are a couple of characters from the extra books who are still alive (but very very old) when Game of Thrones begins.  But you will get all the information you need about them from the main series.

But if you want a real treat between other commitments, the Dunk and Egg stories are very short (you could read each one in an evening) and very good.  They are self-contained, meaning that you can read them without knowing anything about the main story.  But they also provide some fun/intersting background to the main series.

[Lord Varys]

12 hours ago, Sea Dragon said:

I have not had a chance to read all of the extra books yet, but do you have to in order to understand the story? I would like to, but with classes I have such limited time. I assumed that the story we have is the story and the extra books were just about side characters and not the Song of Ice and Fire.

You should read the Dunk & Egg stories as @The Twinslayer has said. They give you some background on Maester Aemon's little brother who became King Aegon V as well as about the three-eyed crow. And you get a glimpse on Walder Frey when he was still a little shit.

Historically there are also precedents for commoners/bastards becoming dragonriders during the Dance of the Dragons, a Targaryen civil war where most of the dragons were killed, but that didn't turn out all that well for them. That could be a hint that Jon Snow claiming a dragon (especially while there might already be other dragonriders around) is not necessarily going to make everybody worship him.

In addition, Dany's dragons are still quite small compared to the dragons during the Dance.

[Free Northman Reborn]

On ‎2017‎/‎02‎/‎14 at 4:13 PM, Lord Varys said:

No, it is not because this mystery might be resolved in a way people do not expect. There is no reason to believe that the question who is king in the end matters all that much. Not in light of the threat of the Others. And the mystery of Jon's parentage might have no impact whatsoever in the political sphere. The Others certainly wouldn't care whether he was born in wedlock or not.

And who knows? Perhaps all the heroes will die in the fight against the Others, or rather the three big heroes, Jon, Dany, and Tyrion? Aegon's child by Arianne could be propped up on the Iron Throne, and there could be some positive regency council established considering of people like Brienne, Davos, Sansa, and Asha. 

Right, because we have reason to believe that there is a reborn Nissa Nissa. Drogo was Nissa Nissa if there ever was one, and he is long dead. But Drogon is still warm, just as Drogo had been.

If Jon has to sacrifice somebody for some reason Arya has to die. She is the one he wants to save in ADwD, and that's the reason why she would have to die if you talk in terms of sacrifices. They have to hurt. Dany and Jon don't even know each other.

Oh, come on now, this question is easily answered. Dany is the true and only heir of House Targaryen because nobody else is left. They are all dead, even Bloodraven and Aemon (who long lost any claims to anything by joining the NW). Knowing 'the truth' doesn't change things. A lot of people know 'the truth' about Cersei's children but they still sit the Iron Throne. Jon being revealed to be some Targaryen child doesn't teleport him on the Iron Throne. Just as nobody cared about 'the revelation' that Daeron II was a bastard and Daemon Blackfyre the true king.

Even if Jon had not joined the NW (which he did) there is no reason to believe that the revelation about his true heritage (however this is going to be revealed) can supplant Daenerys or Aegon (or even Tyrion, if he gets legitimized as a Targaryen by Daenerys) as the rightful Targaryen heir in the eyes of the public because he cannot hope to convince anyone of his parentage and legitimate birth.

Not after Aegon pulled the same stunt off (and lost to Daenerys). That would be an utterly ridiculous storyline.

And yet, we have Barristan incrementally revealing bits of the truth around Rhaegar and Lyanna to Daenerys, we have Jaime Lannister potentially moving on an arc North, possibly becoming a type of Criston Cole parallel "Kingmaker" in the endgame. We have Bran and Bloodraven clearly invested in Jon's identity as "King", as expressed by Mormont's Raven, we have Sansa moving into an influential role in the Vale, we have Jon named as Robb's heir to the North and Riverlands. And we have Tyrion Lannister who is likely to become the heir to Casterly Rock, and a personal friend of Jon's, who will likely ferret out the truth of the secret soon enough too. He is remarkably perceptive and intelligent, after all.

We even have some hints that Edrick Dayne has been exposed to people with insight into Jon's origins in distant Dorne. Not to mention that if Jon Connington learns the truth, he might feel more loyalty to Rhaegar's son, after Aegon has died.

So while you say that the vast majority of people in the Realm would laugh off some claim by some frog eater that Jon is the Dragon Prince, it is the people with power that count, and we KNOW that a number of them will realise the truth before the end. Specifically, and quite plausibly, we could have:

Sansa as regent of the Vale being convinced of the truth by Bran,

The North and Riverland's rulers being convinced of the truth, by Bran/Howland Reed and other clues that will undoubtedly emerge,

And Tyrion, the potential ruler of the Westerlands learning the truth through a number of sources, be they Barristan, Jaime, or even other sources only he may have access to.

That is 4 of the Seven Kingdoms' potential rulers, with Dorne hardly having any reason to like Dany after she kills off Aegon and had already killed off Quentyn. We don't know what will be left of the Reach by the time the wars against Euron, Aegon and Daenerys are done, but we may well be in a position then where a majority of the major players in Westeros are aware of Jon's status. And if the situation is dire enough, may want a unifying figure to unite Westeros against the Others.

The proposed marriage between Jon and Dany might well then be the way to achieve this unification.

In any case, my point is that you only need to convince the ruling Stark (be it Bran), the ruler of the Vale (potentially Sansa), the ruler of the Riverlands (either Edmure or Robb's heir, which would be Jon/Bran), and say Tyrion or Jaime as the remaining heirs to the Westerlands, and you will have the biggest part of the Seven Kingdoms supporting Jon.

You don't need to convince every unnamed petty lord and landed knight in the realm. Only the guys at the top. And as it happens, many of them have close connections to Jon. So it is not nearly as unthinkable as you make it sound. 

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

And yet, we have Barristan incrementally revealing bits of the truth around Rhaegar and Lyanna to Daenerys, we have Jaime Lannister potentially moving on an arc North, possibly becoming a type of Criston Cole parallel "Kingmaker" in the endgame.

Barristan could have some additional information on the Rhaegar-Lyanna affair, but he has certain neither evidence nor proof for the Jon Snow thing. How could he?

Jaime most certainly isn't on some kind of northern story. How on earth came you up with that? He is in the Riverlands, and nobody in the Riverlands is going north right now. Why should they? Jaime is obsessed with his guilt about Rhaegar's children right now, and Rhaegar's son is in the Stormlands, not in the North.

Quote

We have Bran and Bloodraven clearly invested in Jon's identity as "King", as expressed by Mormont's Raven, we have Sansa moving into an influential role in the Vale, we have Jon named as Robb's heir to the North and Riverlands.

Even if we assume Bloodraven knows the truth about Jon's ancestry there is no good reason to believe he actually intends to make him king. If he did so, he should have tried to convince him not to the black.

And Sansa is not going 'to rule the Vale'. Even if she did, why on earth should support Jon as a pretender to the Iron Throne?

Robb's last will wouldn't be worth anything if Jon Snow isn't his half-brother/Eddard Stark's son. He did not legitimize/name Rhaegar Targaryen's son by Lyanna Stark his heir. He talked about a boy he thought was his half-brother.

Quote

And we have Tyrion Lannister who is likely to become the heir to Casterly Rock, and a personal friend of Jon's, who will likely ferret out the truth of the secret soon enough too. He is remarkably perceptive and intelligent, after all.

Aha. Last I looked even people with intelligence had to have hints to resolve a riddle. Tyrion has no reason to believe Jon Snow is anything but Eddard Stark's bastard.

Quote

We even have some hints that Edrick Dayne has been exposed to people with insight into Jon's origins in distant Dorne. Not to mention that if Jon Connington learns the truth, he might feel more loyalty to Rhaegar's son, after Aegon has died.

Jon Connington is not going to survive Aegon. Edric Dayne and the Daynes in general might know stuff, but why should anyone believe the Daynes? What evidence do they have?

Quote

So while you say that the vast majority of people in the Realm would laugh off some claim by some frog eater that Jon is the Dragon Prince, it is the people with power that count, and we KNOW that a number of them will realise the truth before the end. Specifically, and quite plausibly, we could have:

Sansa as regent of the Vale being convinced of the truth by Bran,

And how does Sansa then convince the Lords of the Vale of this? By her magical power of mind control? Sansa is not going to be regent of anything. She isn't a woman grown. In addition - you have no reason to believe Bran can know speak to everybody at will with his super powers. If that was so easy that Bloodraven would have done that a long time ago.

Quote

The North and Riverland's rulers being convinced of the truth, by Bran/Howland Reed and other clues that will undoubtedly emerge,

If you can't even imagine how this is going to work out you should not even suggest it. Even if it worked - why the hell should anybody believe some tree face/voice in his dreams or some filthy frog eater?

Quote

And Tyrion, the potential ruler of the Westerlands learning the truth through a number of sources, be they Barristan, Jaime, or even other sources only he may have access to.

I guess he is going to read ASoIaF and then figure everything out.

Quote

That is 4 of the Seven Kingdoms' potential rulers, with Dorne hardly having any reason to like Dany after she kills off Aegon and had already killed off Quentyn. We don't know what will be left of the Reach by the time the wars against Euron, Aegon and Daenerys are done, but we may well be in a position then where a majority of the major players in Westeros are aware of Jon's status. And if the situation is dire enough, may want a unifying figure to unite Westeros against the Others.

Yeah, right, the more powerful factions who are bled later in the war will end up weaker in the end despite the fact that war continues in the North and the Riverlands. The North and the Riverlands are already done. They don't matter as political powers on the grand scale of things, especially not in winter with no food and resources. They can continue to try to get their revenge and punish the traitors but they will never play with the grown-ups again.

And the Vale is not going to stay out of the war until after Daenerys has arrived. They have to commit themselves to a pretender eventually - either Dany or Aegon (or Euron) but certainly not Jon. If it was Jon then we are getting boring tourneys and feasts in Sansa's chapters until ADoS (or even longer).

Even if the North, the Riverlands, and the Vale would declare for Jon they would have no strength to make Dany (or anyone) care about that. They don't have the numbers to challenge Aegon or Daenerys, especially not after the battles they still have to fight.

Dorne certainly has no reason to support Lyanna's bastard in anything. They would not look kindly on Jon at all.

6 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

The proposed marriage between Jon and Dany might well then be the way to achieve this unification.

If it goes that way then Dany will essentially make a beggar a king. This is not going to be an arranged marriage amongst equals. There is not even a reason to assume they will have time for negotiation and crap in the middle of winter. They are not likely to meet before the Wall falls because Dany most certainly won't land in the North of all places.

Quote

In any case, my point is that you only need to convince the ruling Stark (be it Bran), the ruler of the Vale (potentially Sansa), the ruler of the Riverlands (either Edmure or Robb's heir, which would be Jon/Bran), and say Tyrion or Jaime as the remaining heirs to the Westerlands, and you will have the biggest part of the Seven Kingdoms supporting Jon.

Bran is not going to rule anything. He is a cripple, and the Northmen don't follow cripples. He is never going to leave that cave alive. And we have no reason to believe that he has to.

Even if he did - newflash! - he is still a boy. Nobody is going to take him seriously or obey his commands. People might even want to kill him if they find out what he is and what he can do. Making men your puppets isn't exactly something that's popular in Westeros...

Quote

You don't need to convince every unnamed petty lord and landed knight in the realm. Only the guys at the top. And as it happens, many of them have close connections to Jon. So it is not nearly as unthinkable as you make it sound. 

No, the guys at the top have to convince their underlings. Else you get to face a thing that is usually called 'a rebellion'. I think you know what that is. The idea that a majority of the people of Westeros would support the claim of 'the Targaryen' Jon Snow against a true Targaryen princess (or even a boy with Valyrian looks who claims he is the only son of Rhaegar people know existed) is laughable. Winter has come, and they all have better things to do than to die in a pointless war. That at least will be the situation when this thing finally comes out.

Even right now nobody would give a shit about that. What do you think Jon would do when somebody had told him about his parentage in the chapter before he was killed? He would have most likely have had a good laugh, and then he would have continued with his duty as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

23 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

Also, in ASOS, Jaime says he considered naming a new Targaryen heir after Aerys died -- and he thinks first of Viserys and only after that of Aegon.

It's funny that you mention Jaime because if Aerys had actually done it Jaime would had knew about it and would had said it. Since Jaime had never mentioned it, it likely that never happened.

[The Twinslayer]

3 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

It's funny that you mention Jaime because if Aerys had actually done it Jaime would had knew about it and would had said it. Since Jaime had never mentioned it, it likely that never happened.

That is like saying that just because Ned never mentions or thinks about his mother, he never had one, even though the world book says he had a mother whose name was Lyarra. 

Also, we can't know that "Jaime had never mentioned it [so] it likely never happened" because as of now Jaime is still alive and he only became a POV character in ASOS.  So there is still time.  Just like there is still time for Jaime to mention other things that we know happened but which he hasn't mentioned yet.  For example Jaime tells us that "Aerys packed the queen off to Dragonstone with Prince Viserys," but fails to mention that Willem Darry went with them.  Or when he says that during the wildfire plot, "my brothers were all away," and tells us where Jon Darry, Barristan, and Lewyn were, but fails to mention where Hightower, Dayne and Whent were. 

But I think Jaime did tell us that Viserys came before Rhaegar's children. "'Shall I proclaim a new king as well?'  Crakehall asked, and Jaime read the question plain:  Shall it be your father, or Robert Baratheon, or do you mean to try to make a new dragonking?  He thought for a moment of the boy Viserys, fled to Dragonstone, and of Rhaegar's infant son Aegon, still in Maegor's with his mother.  A new Targaryen king, and my father as Hand.  How the wolves will howl..."

If the order of succession was Aegon then Viserys, why did Jaime think of Viserys first and then of Aegon? 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Jon's Queen Consort said:

It's funny that you mention Jaime because if Aerys had actually done it Jaime would had knew about it and would had said it. Since Jaime had never mentioned it, it likely that never happened.

Nonsense. Jaime killed Aerys II. He didn't give a fig about what that man decreed. The new Targaryen king would have been Jaime's choice, not Aerys'.

I guess you also believe Jon Snow is Eddard Stark's son because he said he is and never thinks of him as Lyanna's son in his chapters. Surely he would have thought of that fact in his chapters if it were true.

But we really don't have to go that far:

1. There is no proof that Jon Snow is Rhaegar's son.

2. There is no proof that Jon Snow was born in wedlock.

3. There is no proof that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married.

4. There is no reason to assume anybody in Westeros would consider the child of bigamist trueborn if it is from the second wife (and even if the boy was considered to be trueborn that doesn't make him a member of the royal family and legible to inherit something - you have to be presented to the king to become an official member of the royal family).

5. There is no reason to assume anybody would believe the fairy-tale story that Jon Snow is Rhaegar Targaryen's secret son rather than what Eddard Stark claimed he is- his bastard.

6. And even if some people believed - nobody would care. Jon Snow is politically insignificant. The Targaryen loyalists have Aegon and Dany to play with, they don't need a boy with Stark looks claiming he is a Targaryen. If the looks of Cersei's children 'prove' that they are not Robert's, then Jon's looks most definitely 'prove' he is not Rhaegar's.

[Sea Dragon]

Hi again. I just have a question. When in the book timeline did Aerys make Viserys the heir, and I am guessing at the same time removed Rhaegar from being the rightful heir? I am wondering because the last thing Rhaegar said to Jaime was that he was going to change things when he got back, but he does not get back because he dies at the Ruby Ford. So I guess I am wondering if Rhaegar never knew he was removed as heir (disinherited) because he still seems to think he has power or authority to make changes. Something he cannot do if he has no "right" to.

Thanks.

[Luddagain]

Lolys Stokeworth - with King Bron

[khal drogon]

Aerys making Viserys heir has become insignificant. I don't think any Westerosi lord is going to reject fAegon citing that. Even Dany will not back her claim by saying Rhaegar is disinherited.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Sea Dragon said:

Hi again. I just have a question. When in the book timeline did Aerys make Viserys the heir, and I am guessing at the same time removed Rhaegar from being the rightful heir? I am wondering because the last thing Rhaegar said to Jaime was that he was going to change things when he got back, but he does not get back because he dies at the Ruby Ford. So I guess I am wondering if Rhaegar never knew he was removed as heir (disinherited) because he still seems to think he has power or authority to make changes. Something he cannot do if he has no "right" to.

Rhaegar was never formally disinherited, at least not as far as we know. His father considered doing it prior to Harrenhal, and some of Aerys' cronies were pushing him to do it but as far as we know it never came to do.

At least not until the Lyanna affair. What happened thereafter we simply don't know yet. Rhaegar not returning to Dragonstone/court and instead going underground with Lyanna could easily enough not the rather weird explanation that he was lovesick and no longer cared about his family and duty to the Realm. One assumes that neither Rhaegar nor Lyanna wanted Aerys to run amok and burn Rickard and Brandon nor would any of them have wanted that Ned and Robert rebel against the Iron Throne.

It is easily imaginable that Aerys saw the 'abduction' of Lyanna as 'proof' that this Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy he saw brewing at Harrenhal finally was revealing itself. And if that is the case then Rickard and Brandon would actually have been killed for conspiring with Rhaegar against the king, and Aerys wouldn't have believed them that they were actually opposed to the whole Lyanna affair as much as the king himself must have been. Now, if that was the case, then it is not unlikely that Aerys demanded Rhaegar's head, too, thus forcing his son to go underground.

If that was the case then his views must have eventually changed, though, since he eventually recalled Rhaegar to court, presumably because people at court and the unfolding rebellion could convince him that Rhaegar was, in fact, not working with the rebels.

In that sense Rhaegar might have been disinherited/attainted at one point but had long been pardoned by the time he took command of the Targaryen army and died at the Trident.

Prince Viserys was made Aerys' new heir only after the news of Rhaegar's death reached the Red Keep. Instead of choosing Rhaegar's son Prince Aegon as his new heir, Aerys picked his own son, Prince Viserys. That he was made Prince of Dragonstone, too, in the very same process is pretty evident by the fact that he actually sent Viserys to Dragonstone and kept Aegon, Rhaenys, and Elia as hostages against Dorne.

2 hours ago, khal drogon said:

Aerys making Viserys heir has become insignificant. I don't think any Westerosi lord is going to reject fAegon citing that. Even Dany will not back her claim by saying Rhaegar is disinherited.

Again, it is not Rhaegar who was disinherited, but Prince Aegon himself. And that is significant, of course. Daenerys might also challenge Aegon's claim that he is Rhaegar's son, but she can also stress the point that she is the chosen and anointed heir of the last crowned Targaryen king, who himself was the son and chosen heir of Aerys II. Daenerys is the daughter and sister of kings, while Aegon is just the grandson of a king whose claim was actually dismissed by said royal grandfather.

[Free Northman Reborn]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Rhaegar was never formally disinherited, at least not as far as we know. His father considered doing it prior to Harrenhal, and some of Aerys' cronies were pushing him to do it but as far as we know it never came to do.

At least not until the Lyanna affair. What happened thereafter we simply don't know yet. Rhaegar not returning to Dragonstone/court and instead going underground with Lyanna could easily enough not the rather weird explanation that he was lovesick and no longer cared about his family and duty to the Realm. One assumes that neither Rhaegar nor Lyanna wanted Aerys to run amok and burn Rickard and Brandon nor would any of them have wanted that Ned and Robert rebel against the Iron Throne.

It is easily imaginable that Aerys saw the 'abduction' of Lyanna as 'proof' that this Rhaegar-Stark conspiracy he saw brewing at Harrenhal finally was revealing itself. And if that is the case then Rickard and Brandon would actually have been killed for conspiring with Rhaegar against the king, and Aerys wouldn't have believed them that they were actually opposed to the whole Lyanna affair as much as the king himself must have been. Now, if that was the case, then it is not unlikely that Aerys demanded Rhaegar's head, too, thus forcing his son to go underground.

If that was the case then his views must have eventually changed, though, since he eventually recalled Rhaegar to court, presumably because people at court and the unfolding rebellion could convince him that Rhaegar was, in fact, not working with the rebels.

In that sense Rhaegar might have been disinherited/attainted at one point but had long been pardoned by the time he took command of the Targaryen army and died at the Trident.

Prince Viserys was made Aerys' new heir only after the news of Rhaegar's death reached the Red Keep. Instead of choosing Rhaegar's son Prince Aegon as his new heir, Aerys picked his own son, Prince Viserys. That he was made Prince of Dragonstone, too, in the very same process is pretty evident by the fact that he actually sent Viserys to Dragonstone and kept Aegon, Rhaenys, and Elia as hostages against Dorne.

Again, it is not Rhaegar who was disinherited, but Prince Aegon himself. And that is significant, of course. Daenerys might also challenge Aegon's claim that he is Rhaegar's son, but she can also stress the point that she is the chosen and anointed heir of the last crowned Targaryen king, who himself was the son and chosen heir of Aerys II. Daenerys is the daughter and sister of kings, while Aegon is just the grandson of a king whose claim was actually dismissed by said royal grandfather.

Forgive me, but who is she supposed to make this case to? There is no court of law in Westeros. No Supreme Court who decides this. Either she will conquer Westeros, or she will be irrelevant. None of the lords care about the legitimacy of her claim just for the sake of it.

Or at least, if they are at the point of considering a return to Targaryen rule rather than some Baratheon or Lannister, then they aren't going to care about the nuances of who comes firsts, Dany or Aegon or some other heir that is yet to be revealed (cough Jon cough).

 

[Lord Varys]

Just now, Free Northman Reborn said:

Forgive me, but who is she supposed to make this case to? There is no court of law in Westeros. No Supreme Court who decides this. Either she will conquer Westeros, or she will be irrelevant. None of the lords care about the legitimacy of her claim.

Are you kidding me? There will be a propaganda war both before and while they are drawing the swords and butchering each other. Dany's and Aegon's people both will use any means they might have to convince the undecided to declare for their side. Aegon and Arianne are likely going to play the 'Mad King's daughter' card (as Mace already seems to be doing in the Epilogue when he declares Dany is 'as mad as her father' as well as the 'women have no claims/come after all the men' card. Not to mention him painting Dany as an evil foreign conqueror.

Dany is likely to play 'the Mother of Dragons' card (the dragons are a divine sign proving that I am the rightful monarch of Westeros - that fits well with the special meanings dragons had as symbols of power and legitimacy in the history of the Targaryen dynasty), in addition there can be the 'Aegon is not Rhaegar's son' card as well as the 'even if Aegon were Rhaegar's son it doesn't really matter because his claim is not as good as mine' card.

Dany cannot know whether Aegon is Rhaegar's son until she actually investigates the whole and (sharply) questions Varys, Illyrio, or perhaps Lemore (assuming she ever gets around to doing that). Some tales/theories of the Tattered Prince or Tyrion aren't proof of anything, not for her, and certainly not for the lords in Westeros who are going to declare for Aegon in the weeks and months to come, while Dany still hangs out in the Dothraki Sea.

And why do you think nobody would care about the legitimacy about Dany's claim but a lot of people are supposedly going to care about the legitimacy/relevance/whatever of Jon Snow's claim (whose vow 'to wear now crowns, hold no lands, and father no children' definitely makes all such speculations pretty much irrelevant)? Dany certainly could also conquer Westeros over the dead bodies of all the Westerosi (she might actually have the strength to literally kill all the opposition) but I don't think that will be necessary. I think quite a few people in Westeros will actually care about Dany's claim, and join, especially if Aegon's star is going to sink as quickly as it is rising right now.

And we still have no idea what Euron is going to do. He could actually deal with Aegon long before Dany arrives. If these two ever meet in battle or clash in any other way I'd not put much money on Aegon.

[Free Northman Reborn]

46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Are you kidding me? There will be a propaganda war both before and while they are drawing the swords and butchering each other. Dany's and Aegon's people both will use any means they might have to convince the undecided to declare for their side. Aegon and Arianne are likely going to play the 'Mad King's daughter' card (as Mace already seems to be doing in the Epilogue when he declares Dany is 'as mad as her father' as well as the 'women have no claims/come after all the men' card. Not to mention him painting Dany as an evil foreign conqueror.

Dany is likely to play 'the Mother of Dragons' card (the dragons are a divine sign proving that I am the rightful monarch of Westeros - that fits well with the special meanings dragons had as symbols of power and legitimacy in the history of the Targaryen dynasty), in addition there can be the 'Aegon is not Rhaegar's son' card as well as the 'even if Aegon were Rhaegar's son it doesn't really matter because his claim is not as good as mine' card.

Dany cannot know whether Aegon is Rhaegar's son until she actually investigates the whole and (sharply) questions Varys, Illyrio, or perhaps Lemore (assuming she ever gets around to doing that). Some tales/theories of the Tattered Prince or Tyrion aren't proof of anything, not for her, and certainly not for the lords in Westeros who are going to declare for Aegon in the weeks and months to come, while Dany still hangs out in the Dothraki Sea.

And why do you think nobody would care about the legitimacy about Dany's claim but a lot of people are supposedly going to care about the legitimacy/relevance/whatever of Jon Snow's claim (whose vow 'to wear now crowns, hold no lands, and father no children' definitely makes all such speculations pretty much irrelevant)? Dany certainly could also conquer Westeros over the dead bodies of all the Westerosi (she might actually have the strength to literally kill all the opposition) but I don't think that will be necessary. I think quite a few people in Westeros will actually care about Dany's claim, and join, especially if Aegon's star is going to sink as quickly as it is rising right now.

And we still have no idea what Euron is going to do. He could actually deal with Aegon long before Dany arrives. If these two ever meet in battle or clash in any other way I'd not put much money on Aegon.

I expected the question regarding why people will care about Jon's claim if they don't care about Dany's. And my answer to that was pre-prepared:

Because, as I said, we will have the rulers of key regions with personal reasons to want Jon in charge, plus there will be a selfish need for them to promote unity at that point - the threat of the Others. It won't be out of some love or loyalty to Rhaegar Targaryen. It will be because Jon is someone they need or prefer as king, either out of familial loyalty, or perhaps in combination with a distaste for some foreign Mad Queen invader with Dothraki hordes at her back.

But as I said, Jon is not going to play this propaganda war you talk about. If he does become king, it will be because his supporters orchestrate it, not because he is seeking the Throne.

I continue to believe that Westeros will end up split in roughly two halves. With Dany ruling over the Reach, Stormlands and Crownlands, and Jon de facto ruler over the North, Vale and Riverlands. The Westerlands and Dorne can go either way, depending on what role Bran plays in Jaime's redemption arc (the man who crippled him). I suspect Tyrion will be the one that then arranges the alliance between the two halves - perhaps by marriage between Jon and Dany, perhaps not. And that the Realm will then be united in this way to face the Others.

So a war between Jon and Dany will never transpire.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Because, as I said, we will have the rulers of key regions with personal reasons to want Jon in charge, plus there will be a selfish need for them to promote unity at that point - the threat of the Others. It won't be out of some love or loyalty to Rhaegar Targaryen. It will be because Jon is someone they need or prefer as king, either out of familial loyalty, or perhaps in combination with a distaste for some foreign Mad Queen invader with Dothraki hordes at her back.

The Riverlands should be easily enough ripe for the taking for either Aegon or Daenerys. The North and the Vale cannot help them in winter, and they are far to weak to resist the dragon when he comes knocking, regardless who he might be. And you forget that half the Riverlords stood with Rhaegar Targaryen at the Trident. These people will rediscover their Targaryen loyalties long before Jon Snow learns the truth about his parentage.

In fact, Aegon might call on the help/moral support of those people pretty soon, just as he might deploy some troops to help them oust the Lannisters and deal with the Freys. The Lannisters are Aegon's enemies, too, and the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Aegon's way to Riverrun and the other Riverlords is a lot shorter than the distance between the Wall or Winterfell and the Riverlands.

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

But as I said, Jon is not going to play this propaganda war you talk about. If he does become king, it will be because his supporters orchestrate it, not because he is seeking the Throne.

But those supporters you imagine will exist won't have a reason to make him king, either. That is the whole point. Nobody has any reason to want to make Jon king. Not even Bloodraven does. Else he would have tried to prevent him for speaking his vow. 

4 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I continue to believe that Westeros will end up split in roughly two halves. With Dany ruling over the Reach, Stormlands and Crownlands, and Jon de facto ruler over the North, Vale and Riverlands. The Westerlands and Dorne can go either way, depending on what role Bran plays in Jaime's redemption arc (the man who crippled him). I suspect Tyrion will be the one that then arranges the alliance between the two halves - perhaps by marriage between Jon and Dany, perhaps not. And that the Realm will then be united in this way to face the Others.

Can you in any way lay out what the hell the Vale is going to do in the meantime of all this? Are we going to get chapter upon chapter where Sansa is overseen food ships taking off for the Wall, or what? The Lords of the Vale wanted to go to war since AGoT. Do you think they will really continue to sit on their asses while Aegon is challenging the Lannisters (Sansa's sworn enemies) and the Tyrells? They can make difference down there, and they will have make a decision on that issue sooner rather than later, long before news about Jon's death, the Others, or anything else what's going on in the North right now will reach them.

When winter has finally set in the South, too, the cavalry of the Vale cannot really make a difference. And it is not mutually exclusive that Sansa/Littlefinger/Harry support Aegon and (eventually) go up North, too, to install Sansa as Lady of Winterfell. In fact, the road to Winterfell could go by way of King's Landing. If the Vale plays somewhat the role of a kingmaker for Aegon, saving his ass in a dire situation, then Sansa could demand that she be confirmed as Lady of Winterfell irregardless what Robb's will might have decreed (and irregardless whether her younger brothers are still alive or not). That could only help her cause. In addition, Littlefinger could try to gain another position at court this way, and permanently confirm his status as Lord of Harrenhal.

Jaime has made it clear that he is not after worldly power, especially not after Casterly Rock. He will play no role in the politics of the West in the future.

I very much doubt the Realm will be united in any way by the time the Others make their move. That is against the spirit of the entire narrative. The Realm will be united while it is suffering the effects of the fall of the Wall and the attacks of the Others, it won't be united prior to that. The whole point of those pointless civil wars is to weaken the Realm. George wants to destroy the good guys before they face the big bad, and when they finally do face the evil guys we'll have to see whether they are still strong enough to defeat them or not.

That is why there is not going to be a confrontation between Dany and Jon. They will first meet each other when the Others already have become a very real thing in everybody's mind, and claims won't matter all that much in that scenario. Power struggles might still matter during the Second Dance, but I don't think Jon is going to feature in that one, at least not as a pretender or participating faction.

Although we should never underestimate the effect Aegon's existence could have on Jon if he found out about his parentage around that time. Aegon would then be his half-brother, a closer relation than his Stark cousins. He might try to reach out to him and/or try to negotiate a peace/alliance between him and Stannis (if the man is still alive at that point). He would certainly try to convince Aegon that the Wall is under a severe threat and as king he has to support the Night's Watch (or whoever is holding the Wall at that time).

[Free Northman Reborn]

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Riverlands should be easily enough ripe for the taking for either Aegon or Daenerys. The North and the Vale cannot help them in winter, and they are far to weak to resist the dragon when he comes knocking, regardless who he might be. And you forget that half the Riverlords stood with Rhaegar Targaryen at the Trident. These people will rediscover their Targaryen loyalties long before Jon Snow learns the truth about his parentage.

In fact, Aegon might call on the help/moral support of those people pretty soon, just as he might deploy some troops to help them oust the Lannisters and deal with the Freys. The Lannisters are Aegon's enemies, too, and the enemy of my enemy is my friend. Aegon's way to Riverrun and the other Riverlords is a lot shorter than the distance between the Wall or Winterfell and the Riverlands.

But those supporters you imagine will exist won't have a reason to make him king, either. That is the whole point. Nobody has any reason to want to make Jon king. Not even Bloodraven does. Else he would have tried to prevent him for speaking his vow. 

Can you in any way lay out what the hell the Vale is going to do in the meantime of all this? Are we going to get chapter upon chapter where Sansa is overseen food ships taking off for the Wall, or what? The Lords of the Vale wanted to go to war since AGoT. Do you think they will really continue to sit on their asses while Aegon is challenging the Lannisters (Sansa's sworn enemies) and the Tyrells? They can make difference down there, and they will have make a decision on that issue sooner rather than later, long before news about Jon's death, the Others, or anything else what's going on in the North right now will reach them.

When winter has finally set in the South, too, the cavalry of the Vale cannot really make a difference. And it is not mutually exclusive that Sansa/Littlefinger/Harry support Aegon and (eventually) go up North, too, to install Sansa as Lady of Winterfell. In fact, the road to Winterfell could go by way of King's Landing. If the Vale plays somewhat the role of a kingmaker for Aegon, saving his ass in a dire situation, then Sansa could demand that she be confirmed as Lady of Winterfell irregardless what Robb's will might have decreed (and irregardless whether her younger brothers are still alive or not). That could only help her cause. In addition, Littlefinger could try to gain another position at court this way, and permanently confirm his status as Lord of Harrenhal.

Jaime has made it clear that he is not after worldly power, especially not after Casterly Rock. He will play no role in the politics of the West in the future.

I very much doubt the Realm will be united in any way by the time the Others make their move. That is against the spirit of the entire narrative. The Realm will be united while it is suffering the effects of the fall of the Wall and the attacks of the Others, it won't be united prior to that. The whole point of those pointless civil wars is to weaken the Realm. George wants to destroy the good guys before they face the big bad, and when they finally do face the evil guys we'll have to see whether they are still strong enough to defeat them or not.

That is why there is not going to be a confrontation between Dany and Jon. They will first meet each other when the Others already have become a very real thing in everybody's mind, and claims won't matter all that much in that scenario. Power struggles might still matter during the Second Dance, but I don't think Jon is going to feature in that one, at least not as a pretender or participating faction.

Although we should never underestimate the effect Aegon's existence could have on Jon if he found out about his parentage around that time. Aegon would then be his half-brother, a closer relation than his Stark cousins. He might try to reach out to him and/or try to negotiate a peace/alliance between him and Stannis (if the man is still alive at that point). He would certainly try to convince Aegon that the Wall is under a severe threat and as king he has to support the Night's Watch (or whoever is holding the Wall at that time).

My assessment is that the War for the South is going to be messy, bloody and devastating for all concerned. Since the West and Riverlands are largely viewed as subdued/leaderless at the moment, I don't see them significantly involved - if at all - in Aegon's campaign. Neither the Vale, who has been kept aside for a purpose when the time is right, and not to expend their carefully preserved strength in a useless campaign to briefly install Aegon as King.

So Aegon's war will involve Dorne, the Stormlands, the Reach and the Crownlands. Of course, it will be a threefold war, also involving Euron's campaign in the distant South. The eventual winner will of course be Aegon, with Euron either being defeated by him, or still hanging around as a threat by the time Dany arrives.

Then, when Daenerys arrives, it will be Aegon, with the full support of Dorne, the new rulers of the Reach, the Stormlands and whatever forces the Crownlands can raise, against Daenerys's foreign hordes. I estimate that Aegon will easily be able to raise 20k men from Dorne, 50k from the Reach and say 20k from the Stormlands, giving him a force approaching 100k just from those regions. This will be one side of the Dance, with Dany and her foreigners representing the other side.

If the Starks are back in power by this time, along with their vassals the Tullys, and their allies in the Vale, they can keep their Northern Alliance out of this petty dynastic squabble. I don't expect Jon's identity to be revealed at this point. Instead, the Northern Alliance will band together out of mutual familial and loyalty ties, and stay out of the Dance of the Dragons.

Then, when Dany and Aegon have devastated the South, Dany will gain supremacy of the southernmost part of Westeros, leaving the Northern faction as a powerblock facing her now relatively devastated southron block. Most likely, the two factions will be fairly evenly balanced, at which point Tyrion - the obvious link between Daenerys and Jon, will play matchmaker to unify the two regions.

By this time, the Others will be raising corpses all across Westeros, meaning that unity comes already too late, but at least humanity will finally awaken to the existential threat facing it. And then the final battle, and the bittersweet ending, with Dany dying and Jon taking over as the Targaryen on the Iron Throne - a role he will accept out of duty, and not out of choice.

Bittersweet ending indeed.

[Lion of the West]

As Lord Varys has mentioned Danaerys is indeed the Targaryen heir if you would count it from that direction, with Aerys II naming Viserys and Viserys naming Danaerys heir. To that also comes, as Protagoras pointed out, that Danaerys has three dragons so should be able to "prove" divine providence in regards to her right to be seen as the foremost Targaryen around. All in all legitimacy and symbolism would be on Danaerys' side. Now this has seldom been enough to win the throne but its a rather clear boost to the propaganda machine of the Mother of Dragons in regards to those people looking for a Targaryen to support. Naturally provided that Danaerys does arrive soon. If Aegon can win victories an potentially claim the Iron Throne itself, that will make wonders in building a name for himself, regardless of legitimacy.