U.S. Politics: Moscow on the Potomac

[OldGimletEye]

17 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

I think my shock is more that people who voted for him continue to support him and/or pretend that he's not completely unhinged or that the things he says and does don't matter.  My mind still doesn't not undersatnd how this happens.

I really wish I understood how conservative sorts of people updated their priors. I know quite a few conservative sorts of people personally and I still don't understand it exactly.

[Kalbear]

Turns out the source of the intel was Israel.

Good thing they're not that big of a deal in the region

[Relic]

Meanwhile,  this is the news Trump voters are ingesting - 

 

 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

4 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Turns out the source of the intel was Israel.

Good thing they're not that big of a deal in the region

It's all good. Jared Kushner is going to bring peace to the Middle East. He's all over that shit.

[Altherion]

14 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

But apart from whether Trump thinks he's right or wrong, he's admitting to being a leaker in the same tweet where he admonishes the intel community for not finding the leakers. Not to mention that Trump has a history of 'leaking' his own information by pretending to be his publicist.  

I think my shock is more that people who voted for him continue to support him and/or pretend that he's not completely unhinged or that the things he says and does don't matter.  My mind still doesn't not undersatnd how this happens.

In this case, it's pretty straightforward. The President chose to share some information with a foreign government. We don't know why he did this -- it may be that he got something in return, it may be that he believes their use of it against a common enemy outweighs the operational concerns or it may simply be a gesture of good will. In any case, there is nothing illegal or wrong about what he did and it is not a leak: the President is the principal architect of our foreign policy and it is his right to use the information gathered by the executive branch as he deems fit.

The real problem is that the contents of the President's private conversation with a foreign ambassador were sent to the Washington Post. This is far more damaging to the US than anything Trump has done and not just because the source of the information is now probably not happy about how it was used, but because foreign diplomats now know that the US intelligence services cannot be trusted to keep communications with the President secret when such communications can be used to score political points against him.

[OldGimletEye]

I say when you have orange swamp thing slime all over you, why just take one shower? You might need two or three.

You might even need a power washer. Like maybe the Power Wash Super Heavy Duty Ultra Maximum, with jet engine upgrade, to get the job done.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/15/business/media/mika-joe-kellyanne-conway.html

Quote

Mika Brzezinski said during Monday’s broadcast that she heard Ms. Conway denounce the candidate in private after promoting him on television.

“She would get off the air, the camera would be turned off, the microphone would be taken off, and she would say ‘Blech, I need to take a shower,’ because she disliked her candidate so much,” Ms. Brzezinski said of Ms. Conway.

 

[Kalbear]

Just now, Altherion said:

 In any case, there is nothing illegal or wrong about what he did and it is not a leak: the President is the principal architect of our foreign policy and it is his right to use the information gathered by the executive branch as he deems fit.

It's information shared from a foreign government with specific instructions on not to disseminate. It is certainly his right to use it as he sees fit - just like it is his right to invoke a nuclear war on Australia, tomorrow, if he so chooses - but that does not make it 'right'. Furthermore, it was not his information to share, and therefore it absolutely is a leak. 

Just now, Altherion said:

The real problem is that the contents of the President's private conversation with a foreign ambassador were sent to the Washington Post. This is far more damaging to the US than anything Trump has done and not just because the source of the information is now probably not happy about how it was used, but because foreign diplomats now know that the US intelligence services cannot be trusted to keep communications with the President secret when such communications can be used to score political points against him.

This is a great Breitbartian take. I'm sure that losing one of the main HUMINT sources on ISIS is not nearly as important as the press reporting that he divulged this to an adversary government.

Given that we know that the leak came from people who were actually part of his campaign and openly supported him, 'scoring political points' here is probably not the goal.

[Tywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Nope, it's not. There is literally nothing that Trump cannot declassify which is illegal for him to do so. Classification is a system based entirely on the power of the Executive branch to keep information that POTUS deems important somewhat secret. That's it.

Now, that declassification can come with some MAJOR problems - allies can and will stop helping us with intel, it can cause major negotiations to fail, it can cause actual military operations to end. It can be considered a massive violation of the oath of office. But it isn't illegal. 

I should have phrased that better. It's not illegal, but it may not have been within his Executive powers either (there really isn't much precedent for this). I've heard a couple of intel analysts/specialists say as much. It wouldn't lead to any legal issues outside of impeachment, but as you say, it could and probably will destroy multiple ally intel sharing operations.

[Kalbear]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

I should have phrased that better. It's not illegal, but it may not have been within his Executive powers either (there really isn't much precedent for this). I've heard a couple of intel analysts/specialists say as much. It wouldn't lead to any legal issues outside of impeachment, but as you say, it could and probably will destroy multiple ally intel sharing operations.

It's within his granted powers - just like the lawfare blog says, it's also within his powers to post the nuclear codes on a post-it note, and it's within his powers to order a first nuclear strike on, say, Madagascar. Those are all powers he has. What this violates is the code to 'protect and defend the US' oath he took. 

[mormont]

41 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

But apart from whether Trump thinks he's right or wrong, he's admitting to being a leaker in the same tweet where he admonishes the intel community for not finding the leakers. Not to mention that Trump has a history of 'leaking' his own information by pretending to be his publicist.  

Yeah. But Trump has never seen this as a problem. His entire life is built on the foundation of 'it's OK when I do it'. A thing might be awful when other people do it: but he's always justified. You're mean, I'm strong. You're unprincipled, I'm pragmatic. You're leaking, I'm deciding to disclose for an excellent reason. There is no hypocrisy in Trump's mind, none at all, and he would regard it as absurd to suggest that there ever could be.

2 minutes ago, Altherion said:

In this case, it's pretty straightforward. The President chose to share some information with a foreign government. We don't know why he did this -- it may be that he got something in return, it may be that he believes their use of it against a common enemy outweighs the operational concerns or it may simply be a gesture of good will.

You are literally inventing excuses for him here, not for the first time.

2 minutes ago, Altherion said:

In any case, there is nothing illegal or wrong about what he did and it is not a leak: the President is the principal architect of our foreign policy and it is his right to use the information gathered by the executive branch as he deems fit.

The real problem is that the contents of the President's private conversation with a foreign ambassador were sent to the Washington Post. This is far more damaging to the US than anything Trump has done and not just because the source of the information is now probably not happy about how it was used, but because foreign diplomats now know that the US intelligence services cannot be trusted to keep communications with the President secret when such communications can be used to score political points against him.

If you think the source wasn't going to find out before it was leaked to the press, you're kidding yourself.

[Maithanet]

10 minutes ago, Altherion said:

In this case, it's pretty straightforward. The President chose to share some information with a foreign government. We don't know why he did this -- it may be that he got something in return, it may be that he believes their use of it against a common enemy outweighs the operational concerns or it may simply be a gesture of good will. In any case, there is nothing illegal or wrong about what he did and it is not a leak: the President is the principal architect of our foreign policy and it is his right to use the information gathered by the executive branch as he deems fit.

Just because the President has a right to do something does not mean he cannot be questioned for doing it.  If the fallout for this is other countries are less willing to share intelligence with us (as it looks now), that is a HUGE blunder on his part.  At the moment we don't know whether he performed this disclosure intentionally (which would indicate very bad judgement) or unintentionally (which would indicate that he doesn't understand basic security procedures and is totally unfit for office). 

[Altherion]

6 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It's information shared from a foreign government with specific instructions on not to disseminate. It is certainly his right to use it as he sees fit - just like it is his right to invoke a nuclear war on Australia, tomorrow, if he so chooses - but that does not make it 'right'. Furthermore, it was not his information to share, and therefore it absolutely is a leak.

It certainly is his information to share. It is not possible to say whether it is right or not without knowing what he intended to achieve by doing this and whether it worked.

7 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

This is a great Breitbartian take. I'm sure that losing one of the main HUMINT sources on ISIS is not nearly as important as the press reporting that he divulged this to an adversary government.

To the extent that any sources were lost, they were lost because of the leaks to the press, not because of the original statement. Russia has no motivation to do anything about these sources (especially since the information is now being shared with them).

10 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Given that we know that the leak came from people who were actually part of his campaign and openly supported him, 'scoring political points' here is probably not the goal.

How do you know who the leak came from?

[Dr. Pepper]

21 minutes ago, Altherion said:

 

The real problem is that the contents of the President's private conversation with a foreign ambassador were sent to the Washington Post. This is far more damaging to the US than anything Trump has done and not just because the source of the information is now probably not happy about how it was used, but because foreign diplomats now know that the US intelligence services cannot be trusted to keep communications with the President secret when such communications can be used to score political points against him.

See!!!  The way people like the above trip all over themselves to absolve Trump of any wrong doing is simply astonishing.  It fails all reasoning.  It's absurd.  For those like the one quoted, Trump simply can never be wrong.  It's always someone else's fault.  So much for the party of personal responsibility.  

We're doomed.

[Kalbear]

Just now, Altherion said:

It certainly is his information to share. It is not possible to say whether it is right or not without knowing what he intended to achieve by doing this and whether it worked.

From the perspective of the intel agency that gave him that information - a foreign one - it was absolutely not his right to share. This really isn't a hard concept. If I tell you a secret and explicitly say 'don't tell anyone' and you then tell someone, you are in the wrong. 

Now, you might be able to justify why you did it and have good reasons for it, but you did not have the 'right' to share it in the basic concept of exchanging that information. And if you violate that right, the obvious consequence is that that entity will likely not share with you again, as you are no longer trustworthy. 

Just now, Altherion said:

To the extent that any sources were lost, they were lost because of the leaks to the press, not because of the original statement. Russia has no motivation to do anything about these sources (especially since the information is now being shared with them).

Depending on the source - which the original post indicated - Russia has every motivation to end that source and kill that source, because it is apparently a source in Syria. In fact, that apparently was the primary reason it was released to the press - because that person told Trump this was dangerous and Trump did it anyway, and now that source could be killed (as well as us losing future intel). 

Russia is not an ally of the US in Syria, and has every motivation to actively go after intel sources there. 

Just now, Altherion said:

How do you know who the leak came from?

There have been reports of who this came from - and why. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

25 minutes ago, Altherion said:

The real problem is that the contents of the President's private conversation with a foreign ambassador were sent to the Washington Post. This is far more damaging to the US than anything Trump has done and not just because the source of the information is now probably not happy about how it was used, but because foreign diplomats now know that the US intelligence services cannot be trusted to keep communications with the President secret when such communications can be used to score political points against him.

That's an interesting point, but he's still at fault for even that. If his Administration is a fucking sieve, that's a "you" problem, not an "us" problem. This angle does nothing to exonerate him of this mess. Either way you slice it, he fucked up.  

[Hereward]

41 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Turns out the source of the intel was Israel.

Good thing they're not that big of a deal in the region

No, the source is being claimed to be Israel. If it's Jordan, the best thing they can do is try to blame Israel to protect Jordan's operation. No-one in the region is going to hate Israel any more than they already do, after all. I wonder how much it cost to get Israel to take the rap.

[Altherion]

15 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

There have been reports of who this came from - and why. 

But that's at most a secondary source. The interesting question is who managed to get access to this information in the first place: it's a discussion between a President and an ambassador and there weren't too many people in the room.

11 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

That's an interesting point, but he's still at fault for even that. If his Administration is a fucking sieve, that's a "you" problem, not an "us" problem. This angle does nothing to exonerate him of this mess. Either way you slice it, he fucked up.  

I agree with you on this. It is surprising that despite constant leaks, there hasn't been a single public story about a leaker being punished. These people should be hunted down and purged.

[Kalbear]

Just now, Hereward said:

No, the source is being claimed to be Israel. If it's Jordan, the best thing they can do is try to blame Israel to protect Jordan's operation. No-one in the region is going to hate Israel any more than they already do, after all. I wonder how much it cost to get Israel to take the rap.

Okay, multiple confirmations have indicated it's Israel, and there's also speculation that the ME/Europe trip is cancelling Trump's trip to Israel. 

But you're right, it could be a trick. 

[Kalbear]

Just now, Altherion said:

But that's at most a secondary source. The interesting question is who managed to get access to this information in the first place: it's a discussion between a President and an ambassador and there weren't too many people in the room.

My understanding is that all of these conversations - especially with foreign governments that are adversarial - are monitored, and the official memo given out internally listed all that was spoken of. Anyone in that chain could read that, and anyone involved in that chain could be concerned.

Just now, Altherion said:

I agree with you on this. It is surprising that despite constant leaks, there hasn't been a single public story about a leaker being punished. There people should be hunted down and purged.

Yep, what we really need above all else is to make sure that the Trump admin is less transparent

[Fez]

1 minute ago, Hereward said:

No, the source is being claimed to be Israel. If it's Jordan, the best thing they can do is try to blame Israel to protect Jordan's operation. No-one in the region is going to hate Israel any more than they already do, after all. I wonder how much it cost to get Israel to take the rap.

Probably more than it otherwise would've been now that there's a brand new controversy over some of Trump's advance team not committing to saying if the Western Wall was in Jerusalem (wtf? that's never been the question), and the saga of whether or not Trump will move the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem becoming an issue again.