Jon was rightfully "terminated" by the Watch

[snow is the man]

20 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, I can quote myself to reinforce a certain point here:

You can say exactly the same thing in regards to Jon's favoritism towards his little sister and Stannis. His duty is to the realms of men, not his sister or the king who happened to help him. What is the difference between a man like the Weeper and Roose or Ramsay? I tell you - there is none. Yet Jon makes no attempt to win the Boltons over to support him in his fight against the Others. If he can't do that why on earth should Bowen have be willing or eager to accept the help of a man like the Weeper, who actually slew dozens or even hundreds of good watchmen, his sworn brothers?

And in general - we should not even have to discuss the question whether Bowen Marsh was justified in killing Jon or whether was Jon in the right when he broke his vows. It is obvious that he is not. Not acknowledging that is essentially a denial of reality. George made it so that Jon made a mistake and got entangled in impossible choices. Admitting that he broke his vow or did something stupid or bad doesn't mean his actions aren't understandable or that he had any other choice.

And acknowledging that Bowen Marsh had more than just a point when he killed Jon does also not mean that we liked it that he died or that we wanted him do die (I did not). I didn't want Robb to die, either, but it was quite clear that he was in the wrong both when he crowned himself and when he broke his solemn promise to marry one of Lord Walder Frey's daughters. I also like it that Jon actually supports Stannis' cause and I want them both to kill as many Boltons and Freys as they can find. But that doesn't mean it is the right thing for Jon to do. He made mistakes and he got killed for that. He could have prevented it if he had been a little bit smarter and more aware of the feelings of the people around him. It is not that he wasn't warned repeatedly throughout the book that something of that sort might happen. Far from it, actually.

But the really interesting question is what this means for the story and characters and how it goes from there. 

Jon sent letters asking for help from everyone. Noone sent help.  And with stannis at the wall jon  was stuck between pissing off stannis who would have decimated the nights watch or at least killed jon and made sure the next lord commander was gonna do what he wanted if he thought jon didn't help him which would have been seen as treason

[snow is the man]

Also by killing jon they sent the nights watch into chaos. If they truly wanted to make a difference they could have sent word to the boltons about what was happening and said jon desserted the nights watch and bowen marsh and the rest would have actually helped the nights watch in their eyes by getting rid of the wildlings and throwing all responsibility on a deserter (jon in this scenario). Instead they went off and killed him which is gonna end up causing massive damage and since the big leaders of the nights watch (some at least) were a part of it they would be killed for it. So their will be no leadership until they got a new lord commander which will take a while.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, snow is the man said:

Jon sent letters asking for help from everyone. Noone sent help. 

That is actually not true. Aemon sent letters asking for help from all the kings and many lords (in the North, especially) against Mance and the wildlings. Prior to the return of the survivors from Craster and the Fist of the First Men they had no clear picture what had transpired up there.

The Old Bear made one attempt to inform the King on the Iron Throne but that was clearly not enough. If something like that fails the proper next step is to make another attempt not to bury your head in the sand.

Stannis and Jon combined could have made attempts to actually get some important people to listen. Most notably the Boltons or the Manderlys or both. Davos does not talk about the Others as the common enemy at White Harbor.

1 hour ago, snow is the man said:

And with stannis at the wall jon  was stuck between pissing off stannis who would have decimated the nights watch or at least killed jon and made sure the next lord commander was gonna do what he wanted if he thought jon didn't help him which would have been seen as treason

It is correct that Jon had to placate Stannis somewhat. And it was certainly his duty to assist Stannis in his fight against the Others. But he had no right to assist him in his campaign against the Boltons. In fact, he should have done his best to try to negotiate some sort of truce or alliance between Rose and Stannis.

1 hour ago, snow is the man said:

Also by killing jon they sent the nights watch into chaos. If they truly wanted to make a difference they could have sent word to the boltons about what was happening and said jon desserted the nights watch and bowen marsh and the rest would have actually helped the nights watch in their eyes by getting rid of the wildlings and throwing all responsibility on a deserter (jon in this scenario). Instead they went off and killed him which is gonna end up causing massive damage and since the big leaders of the nights watch (some at least) were a part of it they would be killed for it. So their will be no leadership until they got a new lord commander which will take a while.

Warning the Boltons does not unmake Jon's decision to lead a wildling army against Winterfell. The army would still have to be defeated, and the man at its head would have been the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. That would have been the end of the Watch. The lords just look for a pretext to disband it. Nobody really likes or respects the NW and their silly mission anymore. 

[Wm Portnoy]

9 hours ago, Sea Dragon said:

I don't know if Jon is really dead. I don't think George Martin would make Danaerys marry a zombie. I think what he did was stupid and dumb no matter what. 

Stupid and dumb.  Illegal.  Damaging to the defense of the wall.  Treason.  That cop out justification he gave at the town hall meeting to attack Ramsay was beyond laughable.  Yeah he's going to attack Ramsay for threatening the life of a lord commander who attacked him in his home first and tried to steal his wife.  Nobody bought that stupid excuse, Jon. 

One thing I want to add.  The Free folk are more loyal to Mance than they are to Jon.  I don't think they will take the crows on in battle to avenge the Snowball.  What they will instead do is just leave the wall to rescue their "king", Mance.  I am not fully convinced of the theory of Mance authoring the pink letter but he is enough of a scoundrel to do it. 

 

[Wm Portnoy]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis and Jon combined could have made attempts to actually get some important people to listen. Most notably the Boltons or the Manderlys or both. Davos does not talk about the Others as the common enemy at White Harbor.

That's because Stannis and Jon don't like the Boltons.  Personal feelings get in the way.

[kissdbyfire]

Just now, Wm Portnoy said:

That's because Stannis and Jon don't like the Boltons.  Personal feelings get in the way.

What's to like? Seriously, that's your argument?

[snow is the man]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is actually not true. Aemon sent letters asking for help from all the kings and many lords (in the North, especially) against Mance and the wildlings. Prior to the return of the survivors from Craster and the Fist of the First Men they had no clear picture what had transpired up there.

The Old Bear made one attempt to inform the King on the Iron Throne but that was clearly not enough. If something like that fails the proper next step is to make another attempt not to bury your head in the sand.

Stannis and Jon combined could have made attempts to actually get some important people to listen. Most notably the Boltons or the Manderlys or both. Davos does not talk about the Others as the common enemy at White Harbor.

It is correct that Jon had to placate Stannis somewhat. And it was certainly his duty to assist Stannis in his fight against the Others. But he had no right to assist him in his campaign against the Boltons. In fact, he should have done his best to try to negotiate some sort of truce or alliance between Rose and Stannis.

Warning the Boltons does not unmake Jon's decision to lead a wildling army against Winterfell. The army would still have to be defeated, and the man at its head would have been the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. That would have been the end of the Watch. The lords just look for a pretext to disband it. Nobody really likes or respects the NW and their silly mission anymore. 

that's bull. The north likes the NW. And they sent quite a few letters to everyone but noone listens.

[the snow dragon]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is actually not true. Aemon sent letters asking for help from all the kings and many lords (in the North, especially) against Mance and the wildlings. Prior to the return of the survivors from Craster and the Fist of the First Men they had no clear picture what had transpired up there.

The Old Bear made one attempt to inform the King on the Iron Throne but that was clearly not enough. If something like that fails the proper next step is to make another attempt not to bury your head in the sand.

Stannis and Jon combined could have made attempts to actually get some important people to listen. Most notably the Boltons or the Manderlys or both. Davos does not talk about the Others as the common enemy at White Harbor.

It is correct that Jon had to placate Stannis somewhat. And it was certainly his duty to assist Stannis in his fight against the Others. But he had no right to assist him in his campaign against the Boltons. In fact, he should have done his best to try to negotiate some sort of truce or alliance between Rose and Stannis.

Warning the Boltons does not unmake Jon's decision to lead a wildling army against Winterfell. The army would still have to be defeated, and the man at its head would have been the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. That would have been the end of the Watch. The lords just look for a pretext to disband it. Nobody really likes or respects the NW and their silly mission anymore. 

 Aemon sent letters to many lords and no body listened.Ser alliser thorne was sent with a wights hand and was mocked by iron throne.if nobody believed them till then, it is reasonable to think they wont believe now.A wise man would conclude that there is no hope in appealing again and again and decides to work with what is available at hand.so jon had to work with wildings and stanis.                        Stanis wasn't able to make people listen that he is rightfull king and Jeffrey and tomen are basterds,how do u think the talk about Others will work out.

As to the last point there is the history of lord commanders breaking their vows and were put to death but rest of the watch wasn't harmed.so why would the actions of this lord commander be the end of watch?                      Now you say the lords are just waiting for the excuse to end watch at same time proposing that jon should have pleaded to those same lords for help.

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Let's just settle the technicality, then we can get to what actually matters. Was Jon breaking the technical rules/laws/vows of the Night's Watch? Sure he was. Could Bowen Marsh feel justified in what he did? Again, sure. Was Marsh technically acting lawfully (according to the Night's Watch?) when he murdered his Lord Commander? I guess that could be argued, but it is perhaps a bit more murky.

But that is the question in this thread. You are acknowledging that he brought his fate on himself just as you acknowledge that Marsh may have had a point when he killed him.

Saying that doesn't make you a 'Jon hater'. I don't hate Jon. I actually liked his thoughts at the end of his second last chapter, about the war against the Others being his and all. But then he decided to lead an army against Winterfell instead of doing his duty. That sucked. Hard. And the fact that he was killed sucked even more. I don't want to read from the POV of quasi-zombie in the next books.

The fact that other characters also don't live up to their own standards is irrelevant in this question. Jon (repeatedly) broke a solemn vow for which there is only one punishment in this society. Death. The vow of the Night's Watch is the most solemn vow in Westeros and Jon broke it when he tried to kill Alliser Thorne, he broke it when he tried to run away, he broke it with Ygritte, he broke it when he helped Stannis against the Boltons, he broke it when he sent Mance down south, and he broke it when he decided to march a wildling army against Winterfell.

We learn how important this vow is in AGoT, repeatedly, Eddard Stark, Maester Luwin, Maester Aemon, and Yoren show us this. The only thing that makes the NW special is the fact that they take no part. They are above the mundane struggles. This is why the Realm can afford to send criminals up there. If the lords had reason to believe they would there band together and turn against the Realm they would not do this.

But Jon can't live up to this standards, and it is sad to see that people are unwilling to acknowledge this.

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Now, with that out of the way, here's the bigger issue. Who cares? The Night's Watch consists of about 500 dregs of society at the edge of civilization. Soon to be number closer to zero, once the Wall inevitably falls.

Well, if it does then things will be over, no? Or do you think some untrained and uncivilized wildlings or Northmen without food who have never made any attempt to hold the Wall will do it when the Others come?

The funny thing is that the vow of the NW, the vow those dregs of society also speak, is basically the only thing that ensures that those men 'live and die at their posts'.

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Rise up from the dead Jon Snow-Targaryen, and unleash your vengeance on all those who stand against you, I say.

Well, nothing wrong with that. I like cold-hearted people on a quest for revenge. That is why I very much like Catelyn how she is right now. But I'm pretty sure very few Jon fans would like Jon becoming a character who resembles Catelyn even remotely. If he is supposed to become a true hero with heroic qualities that deserve this name he should abandon the whole revenge thing. He is not going to defeat the Others if he is going to insist to continue his mad quest against the Boltons or kill all his assassins in a cruel fashion.

If he did go down that path he would most likely develop into a monster. Death is going to have its effects on him and if he is driven by revenge rather than compassion or a positive mission he most likely won't care about the Others all that much. Why should he?

8 hours ago, Wm Portnoy said:

That's because Stannis and Jon don't like the Boltons.  Personal feelings get in the way.

That is most likely part of the problem.

But the other is that this might just be a plot hole. Neither Stannis nor Jon nor anyone among the Watch ever discusses the possibility to send envoys to some lords, not even to lords in the North, to inform them about the threat of the Others. At best they write some letters, and Aemon's letters to the kings seemed to have stressed mostly the threat of the wildlings while also mentioning the wights they encountered in AGoT. The news about vast armies of wights and the Others themselves only traveled back to Castle Black with the survivors of the Fist and Craster's. It is a crucial plot element people often seem to forget that Sam failed to send a raven carrying a detailed message from the Fist. Aemon and the people there didn't know what had transpired there until much later.

This gets worse when Jon tells his men that he is going to extend his offer to men as worse as the Weeper but nobody suggests or points out that he may offer the Boltons or Lannisters a similar deal. They all have a common enemy and if you know you have a common enemy you most likely can't defeat on your own it is in your best interest to form a united front. If there is a group in Westeros that could try to do that it is the Night's Watch. But Jon completely fails at that job.

7 hours ago, snow is the man said:

that's bull. The north likes the NW. And they sent quite a few letters to everyone but noone listens.

The North still respects the NW but they, too, are pissed because they are no longer doing their job to keep the wildlings out of their lands. If a Lord Commander led a wildling army through their lands against Winterfell they would not look on that kindly. There would be repercussions after Jon's death and those could easily enough involve the end of the NW. It could be seen as a sign that the institution has become too corrupt to be saved. No Lord Commander has ever led an army of savages against the Seven Kingdoms. Not even the Night's King did that.

2 hours ago, the snow dragon said:

 Aemon sent letters to many lords and no body listened.Ser alliser thorne was sent with a wights hand and was mocked by iron throne.if nobody believed them till then, it is reasonable to think they wont believe now.A wise man would conclude that there is no hope in appealing again and again and decides to work with what is available at hand.so jon had to work with wildings and stanis.                        Stanis wasn't able to make people listen that he is rightfull king and Jeffrey and tomen are basterds,how do u think the talk about Others will work out.

Jon is not wrong in working with Stannis and the wildlings against the Others. Nobody ever said anything about that. But both Jon and Stannis are wrong in not trying to build a united front against the Others involving as many people and lords of Westeros as possible. They should have tried that first before attacking the Boltons.

There is quite some time in the beginning of ADwD for something like that. But Stannis makes no attempt to convince the powers in KL or really anyone what's going on up at the Wall. The man is smart and still has a reputation of honesty. Why isn't he trying to use that?

2 hours ago, the snow dragon said:

As to the last point there is the history of lord commanders breaking their vows and were put to death but rest of the watch wasn't harmed.so why would the actions of this lord commander be the end of watch?                      Now you say the lords are just waiting for the excuse to end watch at same time proposing that jon should have pleaded to those same lords for help.

We don't know how many men died alongside the Night's King (if he was killed) or Runcel Hightower or any of the other bad Lord Commanders. Presumably those men had considerable support among the Watch. Else the Watch would have brought them down and outsiders like the Stark would not have been forced to intervene.

Artos Stark was very pissed about the role the NW played in the death of his lordly brother after the battle at Long Lake (where Raymun Redbeard's army was defeated) and that just because the NW had allowed the wildlings to cross the Wall. If a Lord Commander would actually lead an army against Winterfell the Northmen should be pissed even more. Especially if they would lose the battle. Which, quite honestly, would be very likely. The wildlings are not disciplined, and if Ramsay has indeed defeated Stannis Jon and his army most likely would be crushed.

That is the other huge mistake Jon makes - he allows himself to be provoked by Ramsay. He acts without good intelligence. If Stannis isn't dead and wasn't defeated then this whole thing was for nothing. And if he is right then he cannot really hope to defeat Ramsay or take Winterfell because the wildlings are no proper army. Ramsay could hold Winterfell against them with a token force without any difficulty. And he sure as hell could crush them in a pitched battle.

[Bowen Marsh]

Good Afternoon Lady Barbrey.  Thank you for the support.

Where it so that I could take our crazed lord commander to a formal trial and an execution.  But the wildlings outnumbered us and those rabid maniacs will stand in the way.  Some of the comments suggested I might let Jon think he won, let him leave to attack, and then send a raven to warn the Boltons.  To this I say it is too risky.  The bird might not make it.  The wildlings have arrows that may fall any bird leaving Castle Black.  Stabbing Jon as soon as the opportunity presented itself was the best solution. 

Forever grateful,

Bowen Marsh

[Ralphis Baratheon]

20 minutes ago, Bowen Marsh said:

Good Afternoon Lady Barbrey.  Thank you for the support.

Where it so that I could take our crazed lord commander to a formal trial and an execution.  But the wildlings outnumbered us and those rabid maniacs will stand in the way.  Some of the comments suggested I might let Jon think he won, let him leave to attack, and then send a raven to warn the Boltons.  To this I say it is too risky.  The bird might not make it.  The wildlings have arrows that may fall any bird leaving Castle Black.  Stabbing Jon as soon as the opportunity presented itself was the best solution. 

Forever grateful,

Bowen Marsh

Will you spare Edd? it was not his fault Jon forced him into his plots.
 

[Bowen Marsh]

9 minutes ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Will you spare Edd? it was not his fault Jon forced him into his plots.
 

Dear Ser,

That is confidential company information.  I am not at liberty to divulge company intent.  We follow established corporate procedures whenever possible to deal with violations. 

Sincerely,

Bowen Marsh

P.S. our legal defense team drafted this form letter.

[kimim]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Do we know that for sure? Shouldn't people who know that ice-demons exist and use zombies to fight against mankind beyond the Wall be of the opinion to either ignore or peacefully overcome whatever other differences they have. For Jon, Stannis, the Watch, and the wildlings this is no abstract threat. They know firsthand or from reports they trust that those creatures exist.

If that was the case for me and I was a politician or person of power I'd try everything in my power to form a coalition or alliance against those monsters. Am I smarter than Jon Snow and Stannis?

That they should unite is a no brainer, as you say, but the point of the novels so far is that these people (including the Northerners) are so overcome by their dynastic ambitions and feuds and traditions that they can't. Look at Bowen Marsh. He hates the wildlings, and he will stick to that hate, whether the Walkers are coming or not.

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That is true but the North won't be able to defeat the Others anyway. What Stannis and Jon are doing right now is not helping with uniting the North. It is weakening it. Stannis by fighting the Boltons and Jon by taking the wildlings in while he doesn't have the food or the resources to do that properly.

That the North is in a weak position doesn't mean that it shouldn't try to defend itself. Stannis (and Jon, sorry) fighting the Boltons is necessary, as the North will not unite under the Boltons. On top of the RW, Ramsay is a maniac, a flaying madman who feeds people to dogs. There's no way to underplay that. He is not a person the North (or any other region) can remain united behind.

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The smart thing would have been to actually try to talk over this whole thing with all the lords of Westeros. And that would have been the duty of the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. He is not supposed to interfere, a fact that could have enabled him to send envoys to all the warring factions, from Dorne to the Wall. But he doesn't even make the attempt to do something like that.

1. Dynastic ambitions have torn Westeros apart, to the extent that many houses are now wiped out. 2. No one believes in the supernatural disaster awaiting humanity beyond the Wall. Not even NED, the Northerner incarnate, believed it. This is why the Watch is, as Mormont tells Tyrion, dying. Given the political atmosphere, Jon's letters would achieve nothing. Besides that, he does send letters, doesn't he? Mormont tried to let KL know and failed.
 

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They saw that. Bowen Marsh did agree with that. He accepted Jon's decision to allow Tormund and his people through the Wall. What he doesn't like is putting weapons in the hands of those people.

The expedition to Hardhome is a very bad idea because it most certainly would have been a suicide mission. There is pretty much no chance that those wildlings are going to be saved. Cotter Pykes's letters very much suggest that the Others are already there. The only way to help the people up there would be by ship. An expedition overland is pretty much doomed.

 

Marsh has been complaining about Jon's decision to allow wildlings in forever. He is never resigned to it; as I said earlier, his hatred of the wildlings prevents his being able to unite with them. He's a reflection of divided Westeros as a whole. 

As for handing weapons to the wildlings: thanks to the lack of interest in the Wall, the NW's numbers are depleted in the beginning of the novel. They're further depleted when Mormont takes them on his disastrous ranging. The Wall needs bodies, defenders, which is why Jon arms the wildlings. The wildlings are the only other human group that believes in the Walkers. They're the Wall's natural defenders.

The expedition to Hardhome might be suicidal, but it's needed. Either allow thousands of wildlings to be killed and added to the Walker army as wights, or attempt to prevent it. A suicide mission to prevent that is (imo) worth the losses.

 

EDIT: Jon's great fault is not in trying to get the wildlings into the NW, or in attempting to rescue those at Hardhome, or in siding (to an extent) with Stannis vs Boltons. Like his "father" Ned, he can't do politics. He treats Marsh and friends with contempt. He acts as if his role as LC is enough, and it isn't, and it's what kills him.

[Lord Varys]

45 minutes ago, kimim said:

That they should unite is a no brainer, as you say, but the point of the novels so far is that these people (including the Northerners) are so overcome by their dynastic ambitions and feuds and traditions that they can't. Look at Bowen Marsh. He hates the wildlings, and he will stick to that hate, whether the Walkers are coming or not.

Bowen might not be able to overcome his hatred of the wildlings - which is an understandable attitude, the man lost dozens men at the Bridge of Skulls - but Jon and Stannis are just as petty as Bowen if they are unable to overcome the feuds and ambitions they are involved. Jon Snow has no right to hate the Boltons. It more or less forbidden to him by virtue of his vow. But the NW traditionally fought the wildlings for hundreds of years. The idea that this should change now while Jon Snow can also decide to use the resources of the Watch for his own political goals is hypocritical in the extreme.

45 minutes ago, kimim said:

That the North is in a weak position doesn't mean that it shouldn't try to defend itself. Stannis (and Jon, sorry) fighting the Boltons is necessary, as the North will not unite under the Boltons. On top of the RW, there's one fact GRRM makes agonizingly clear: Ramsay is a maniac, a flaying madman who feeds people to dogs. He is not a person the North (or any other region) can remain united behind.

Roose is the Warden of the North, not Ramsay. You can reason with him. If somebody provided Roose with good evidence that the Others exist and are a major threat he would certainly take that into account. But there is evidence whatsoever that anybody ever tried to explain the situation to him.

And Ramsay - well, neither Jon nor Stannis actually know or care all that much about Ramsay. All they know about the man comes from the letters and the talk of some half-mad castrate (Theon). Stannis makes it pretty clear what he thinks of Ramsay. And for him the guy is essentially a joke. He has never fought a war nor won any major battle against an experienced battle commander. He didn't even receive the proper training of a knight.

But the issue there is that the idea of trying to convince the Boltons - or anyone in the South - that there is a major Others threat isn't even discussed. That doesn't make no sense. Either this is a plot hole (which I actually think more likely) or George intends to send the message that Stannis and Jon are morons, too.

It is not that it is brought up by someone and then the people in charge dismiss it out of the reasons you or others are giving. And since it isn't discussed we don't even know whether Stannis or Jon would actually hold such positions. I think they would have been smart enough to realize they should try to make such alliances if they actually thought about such a possibility.

45 minutes ago, kimim said:

The novel makes clear that 1. Dynastic ambitions have torn Westeros apart, to the extent that many houses are now wiped out. 2. No one believes in the supernatural disaster awaiting humanity beyond the Wall. Not even NED, the Northerner incarnate, believed it. This is why the Watch is, as Mormont tells Tyrion, dying. Given the political atmosphere, Jon's letters would achieve nothing. Besides that, he does send letters, doesn't he? Mormont tried to let KL know and failed.

If you want to do your duty you try again to convince the people in charge. And no, we don't know whether the lords of the North or the entire Realm would dismiss the threat of the Others if trustworthy reports would reach them, relayed by people they are likely to trust. If Jon had gone personally to White Harbor he sure as hell should have been able to make some impression there.

And Stannis' reputation is well known throughout the Seven Kingdoms. He wrote letters to the Lords of the North demanding their fealty but as far as we know he wrote no letters where he explained why came up to the Wall. It was not to defend the wildlings but to defend the Realm against the Others. Why doesn't he say that to the people he actually saved?

And why on earth are no many lords of the North only grudgingly and reluctantly supporting Stannis? Don't they know the man saved their collective asses when he crushed Mance Rayder? The North would have literally burned had Mance and his hundred thousand people crossed the Wall. They would have pushed on down south and would have taken everything they needed from the meager winter provisions the Northmen have left.

45 minutes ago, kimim said:

Marsh has been complaining about Jon's decision to allow wildlings in forever. He is never resigned to it; as I said earlier, his hatred of the wildlings prevents his being able to unite with them. He's a reflection of divided Westeros as a whole.

He has trouble accepting Jon's decisions but he does accept them. He helps him with collecting the valuables and making the deal. But his objections to the whole thing are based on very real facts:

1. The fact that the provisions of the NW are not nearly enough to feed many wildlings throughout the winter. There might be chances to get more food but those are not guarantees. And Jon never tells his officers about the deal he made with the Iron Bank.

2. The fact that many wildlings hate the Watch and are unwilling or incapable to adapt to the ways and customs of the Seven Kingdoms. Arming them is a major problem because you don't know whether they are going to remain true.

3. The political situation in Westeros as far as it can be judged if you are living at the Wall makes it very likely King Tommen will prevail. That means helping Stannis too much - or provoking the ire of the Iron Throne and the Northmen by allowing too many wildlings to cross the Wall - is likely to have dire consequences for the Wall.

I mean, we know that the structure of the series is not making it likely that the Others will make their move sooner rather than later but the characters don't know that. If the Others were biding their time only to attack late in the coming winter - say, in 3-4 years from now - Stannis, Jon, and Bowen might all be skinned alive by the Boltons or otherwise defeated by men in service of King Tommen. Or most of Jon's people might be dead of starvation and cold with the rest of them eating the corpses of the dead.

Jon Snow has no idea how hard winter is at the Wall, nor what happens up there if there is no food left. Bowen Marsh does. The very idea to feed people from the stores of the Watch in a world where you don't even know nor can predict how long winter is going to be is insane.

45 minutes ago, kimim said:

As for handing weapons to the wildlings: thanks to the lack of interest in the Wall, the NW's numbers are depleted in the beginning of the novel. They're further depleted when Mormont takes them on his disastrous ranging. The Wall needs bodies, defenders, which is why Jon arms the wildlings. The wildlings are the only other human group that believes in the Walkers. They're the Wall's natural defenders.

If they had the sense of honor, the ability, and the will to use them. This might be true for some of them but I very much doubt the Weeper or many of the other bad apples among them will stick to the promises they made.

45 minutes ago, kimim said:

The expedition to Hardhome might be suicidal, but it's needed. Either allow thousands of wildlings to be killed and added to the Walker army as wights, or attempt to prevent it. A suicide mission to prevent that is (imo) worth the losses.

If it is suicidal it isn't needed. A suicide mission means that most likely all of the men going to Hardhome will show up there as wights. They have no good weapons against either the Others or the wights. And we don't know how many wights the Others already have. Hundreds wights alone could be enough to completely eradicate the party that was supposed to go to Hardhome. But I doubt the Others have only a hundred.

Even if some of the men arrived at Hardhome how on earth should they be able to get thousands of people back to the Wall safely. The Others could very easily attack them, and using the wights they have already created at Hardhome as weapons against the entire group.

If you think about this it is just madness. They could do it with enough ships but they don't have any left. And even the ships seem to be under attack. I doubt that Cotter Pyke and his ships will return.

The proper way to try to deal with the Others is to actually get support from the Seven Kingdoms and get good and well-trained men from down there to man the Wall. Without such support they are all doomed.

[Bowen 747]

Sure it was a rightful termination.  This is Westeros and you saw from the very first chapter how much due process people do get.  Jon admitted to treason.  He formed his own wildling posse and boldly declared he will lead them to attack a Northern house.  What need for a trial when Jon made a very public admission.  The pink message is the written proof to back up his verbal confession. 

 

 

[Bowen 747]

4 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Will you spare Edd? it was not his fault Jon forced him into his plots.
 

I don't believe Dolorous Edd knew the reason for bringing those women to the wall.  It is even possible he never knew Mance was alive.  He is a sworn brother of the watch and his commander told him to transport those women on the list to the wall.  Edd surely raised an eyebrow but followed orders anyway.  He thought he was transporting pillow partners for some of Stannis' men. 

Edd would have protested if he had know what those women were for and what Jon was about to do.  He would expose Mance Rayder and Jon would be in a heap of trouble.

[kimim]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Bowen might not be able to overcome his hatred of the wildlings - which is an understandable attitude, the man lost dozens men at the Bridge of Skulls - but Jon and Stannis are just as petty as Bowen if they are unable to overcome the feuds and ambitions they are involved. Jon Snow has no right to hate the Boltons. It more or less forbidden to him by virtue of his vow. But the NW traditionally fought the wildlings for hundreds of years. The idea that this should change now while Jon Snow can also decide to use the resources of the Watch for his own political goals is hypocritical in the extreme.

If Jon is an oath breaker by virtue of siding against the Boltons, Marsh is an oath breaker by virtue of siding against the wildlings against his LC's orders. Jeor Mormont says it in Game: The primary purpose of the NW is not to fight the wildlings, but to protect the realms of men. Wildlings, as men, fall under the Watch's protection.

The NW was low on men at the beginning of Game. After Mormont's ranging, it's really, REALLY low on men, possibly down to 400 or so crows. That's not enough to protect the Wall. The Watch needs the wildlings, but Marsh can't accept that. His prejudice and history against the wildlings come between him and his oath's primary purpose, which is to protect the realms of men from the dead, icy things from beyond the Wall. I can't find a shred of defense for Marsh's behavior. Jon at least gets the numerical difficulties the Watch is facing.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Roose is the Warden of the North, not Ramsay. You can reason with him. If somebody provided Roose with good evidence that the Others exist and are a major threat he would certainly take that into account. But there is evidence whatsoever that anybody ever tried to explain the situation to him.

And Ramsay - well, neither Jon nor Stannis actually know or care all that much about Ramsay. All they know about the man comes from the letters and the talk of some half-mad castrate (Theon). Stannis makes it pretty clear what he thinks of Ramsay. And for him the guy is essentially a joke. He has never fought a war nor won any major battle against an experienced battle commander. He didn't even receive the proper training of a knight.

But the issue there is that the idea of trying to convince the Boltons - or anyone in the South - that there is a major Others threat isn't even discussed. That doesn't make no sense. Either this is a plot hole (which I actually think more likely) or George intends to send the message that Stannis and Jon are morons, too.

It is not that it is brought up by someone and then the people in charge dismiss it out of the reasons you or others are giving. And since it isn't discussed we don't even know whether Stannis or Jon would actually hold such positions. I think they would have been smart enough to realize they should try to make such alliances if they actually thought about such a possibility.

Roose is Warden, but Ramsay is his recently legitimized heir. Roose's hold on Ramsay is tenuous: Roose is TERRIFIED by his son's treatment of Arya. Ramsay? He doesn't care, nor can Roose make him care. Ramsay matters. Add him to his father's responsibility for the RW, and all I can conclude is that these two must go, for the North to unite.

...re failure to tell anyone else about the threat: I think it might have been a plot hole in the beginning, but by the time Dance comes around, it's probably hopeless. Westeros is tearing itself apart, with Cersei the idiot at the helm. I doubt that even Tywin would have given credence to rumors of creepy crawlies beyond the Wall. Cersei sure as hell won't, nor will anyone else. But sure, Jon should have tried.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If it is suicidal it isn't needed. A suicide mission means that most likely all of the men going to Hardhome will show up there as wights. They have no good weapons against either the Others or the wights. And we don't know how many wights the Others already have. Hundreds wights alone could be enough to completely eradicate the party that was supposed to go to Hardhome. But I doubt the Others have only a hundred.

Even if some of the men arrived at Hardhome how on earth should they be able to get thousands of people back to the Wall safely. The Others could very easily attack them, and using the wights they have already created at Hardhome as weapons against the entire group.

I think it's a gamble. The Watch is facing the certainty that the Walkers will turn every wildling at Hardhome into a zombie. Jon risks a few men to save himself the trouble of facing thousands of wightified wildlings. If he loses (and odds are he will) then he'll have to deal with thousands of wildling wights, plus a few NW zombies. If he wins, the Walker army is reduced by thousands. I'd take that gamble.

[HallowedMarcus]

On 16/06/2017 at 1:07 PM, Lord Varys said:

And while Jon's decision to save as many wildlings as he could from the cold and the Others was a reasonable decision it might still help the Others because it will drain the provisions of the Watch much quicker, meaning that whoever is left to defend the Wall when they finally make the move will be weaker than they could have been if they had no refugees to feed

   Have you forgotten on A Dance with Dragons that Jon Snow demanded from all the Wildlings Bronze, Silver, Gold and jewelry when they 'entered' the NW so he could melt them to have plenty of coins? Have forgotten that he spoke to a merchant to ensure provisions for the Winter?

[Lord Varys]

32 minutes ago, kimim said:

If Jon is an oath breaker by virtue of siding against the Boltons, Marsh is an oath breaker by virtue of siding against the wildlings against his LC's orders. Jeor Mormont says it in Game: The primary purpose of the NW is not to fight the wildlings, but to protect the realms of men. Wildlings, as men, fall under the Watch's protection.

Marsh would be an oath breaker if he killed Jon Snow because the man allowed the wildlings through the Wall. But that is not what I believe nor is it as of yet given as his main motivation. I think Marsh killed Jon because he broke his vow. And if we we believe the Pink Letter was actually opened and read in advance (as the smear of pink wax might indicate) then Marsh knew what would be coming and could have prepared his men to be ready should the Lord Commander do what he thought he would do - use this as pretext to break his vow and march against Winterfell.

The idea that Jon's assassination was a completely spontaneous deed is pretty unlikely. But I maintain my position - if Marsh had wanted to kill Jon because of the wildlings he should have done so before they crossed the Wall. Now they are there and he has to deal with them.

And I don't think he intends to kill them all.

Quote

The NW was low on men at the beginning of Game. After Mormont's ranging, it's really, REALLY low on men, possibly down to 400 or so crows. That's not enough to protect the Wall. The Watch needs the wildlings, but Marsh can't accept that. His prejudice and history against the wildlings come between him and his oath's primary purpose, which is to protect the realms of men from the dead, icy things from beyond the Wall. I can't find a shred of defense for Marsh's behavior. Jon at least gets the numerical difficulties the Watch is facing.

Again, think about the provisions thing. And what do you think Marsh intends to do with the wildlings now? I think he will try to make a deal. And if the Caesar parallel continues then he might actually get his deal, most likely because he may control the hostages already.

I don't think we are down to 400 black brothers. We had nearly 1,000 in the beginning, and Mormont only took 300 men with him, Marsh lost some at the Bridge of Skulls, but that would have been a joined force of Castle Black and Shadow Tower men. Those are the main losses as of yet. It could still be 500-600 men, or even more, in total.

Quote

Roose is Warden, but Ramsay is his recently legitimized heir. Roose's hold on Ramsay is tenuous: Roose is TERRIFIED by his son's treatment of Arya. Ramsay? He doesn't care, nor can Roose make him care. Ramsay matters. Add him to his father's responsibility for the RW, and all I can conclude is that these two must go, for the North to unite.

That is irrelevant. The people at the Wall don't know how Ramsay treats his bride. Therefore it doesn't figure into their decision-making process. And no, Roose is not afraid of his son nor is he terrified of his treatment of 'Arya'. Where are you getting that?

People also don't know exactly what role Roose played during the Red Wedding. They don't know that he killed Robb. They certainly suspect he had a hand in that but they don't know how crucial his role was.

Quote

...re failure to tell anyone else about the threat: I think it might have been a plot hole in the beginning, but by the time Dance comes around, it's probably hopeless. Westeros is tearing itself apart, with Cersei the idiot at the helm. I doubt that even Tywin would have given credence to rumors of creepy crawlies beyond the Wall. Cersei sure as hell won't, nor will anyone else. But sure, Jon should have tried.

Exactly, that is the point. The people at the Wall don't know what's going on in the South or how Cersei and others are fucking things up. And we can't treat them as if they do or should know. They don't. And thus they should have tried to inform some people.

And again - why not try to inform the Lords of the North? It does not have to be Roose - why not the other lords up there. Perhaps Stannis' envoys to Last Hearth talked about the Others. Could be. But in light of Davos' talk to Lord Wyman it would surprise me.

Quote

I think it's a gamble. The Watch is facing the certainty that the Walkers will turn every wildling at Hardhome into a zombie. Jon risks a few men to save himself the trouble of facing thousands of wightified wildlings. If he loses (and odds are he will) then he'll have to deal with thousands of wildling wights, plus a few NW zombies. If he wins, the Walker army is reduced by thousands. I'd take that gamble.

It is suicidal gamble.

If you look at the situation then it is quite clear that the Watch needs every man who can fight. They can't afford to lose more. But they would lose men on such a mission, either to the cold, some accidents along the route, or the Others/wights. Perhaps even to some wildling attacks conducted by the Weeper or other evil men.

And then there is the Wall. If the Horn of Winter is gone or not found they have little reason to fear that the Others can actually bring down the Wall. And whether there are hundreds or thousands of wights north of the Wall does not matter while they can cross it. The Wall defends itself, after all. It is full of magic.

And if the Others somehow can circumvent the Wall then they are doomed whether they save the wildlings or not. Because they can't be everywhere at once.

By the way - the Weeper is most likely going to attack the Bridge of Skulls again, and soon. He has a large portion Mance's warriors under his command and he is not going to compromise. Jon's offer won't reach him now (not that he would have accepted it) and it is very likely that he will cross the Bridge, destroy the Shadow Tower and then push on down to the South. And then will then be the end of Jon's attempts to convince the Northmen to trust the wildlings. Assuming such policies do survive his death.

4 minutes ago, HallowedMarcus said:

   Have you forgotten on A Dance with Dragons that Jon Snow demanded from all the Wildlings Bronze, Silver, Gold and jewelry when they 'entered' the NW so he could melt them to have plenty of coins? Have forgotten that he spoke to a merchant to ensure provisions for the Winter?

Nope, but you seem to get some details wrong. Jon made a deal with Tycho Nestoris for a loan. A loan that has not been realized yet because Tycho is still with Stannis. Cotter Pyke has taken Tycho's ships to Hardhome, making it potentially difficult for the man to return to Braavos. If he doesn't nothing will come of this deal.

In addition, money and gold is not food. They would have to buy it and get it to the Wall. That should be pretty difficult in winter, especially in light of the fact that many Westerosi will try to buy food from the places where there is still something to be had - both in Westeros and Essos.

[Wolf's Bane]

On 6/16/2017 at 4:32 PM, snow is the man said:

Also by killing jon they sent the nights watch into chaos. If they truly wanted to make a difference they could have sent word to the boltons about what was happening and said jon desserted the nights watch and bowen marsh and the rest would have actually helped the nights watch in their eyes by getting rid of the wildlings and throwing all responsibility on a deserter (jon in this scenario). Instead they went off and killed him which is gonna end up causing massive damage and since the big leaders of the nights watch (some at least) were a part of it they would be killed for it. So their will be no leadership until they got a new lord commander which will take a while.

Jon already sent the night's watch into chaos.  It was already in chaos when they stabbed him to death.  All the good that bringing the wildlings to their side of the wall, to help defend the wall, vanished when Jon decided he will take them south instead to fight against the realm they were supposed to protect.