UK Politics - summer edition

[williamjm]

10 hours ago, mormont said:

Nearly nil, I would say. Any backbench Tory you haven't heard of was likely selected by a local party stuffed with the very people who are now muttering about 'backsliding' on Brexit, who talk about 'ungrateful colonials' without irony, and who think Rees-Mogg is a bit of a moderate.

I did think there's a good chance I won't be any happier with the obscure Tories, but I wasn't sure if that would stop them having a chance of being elected - this is the same electorate that selected IDS in the past and put Andrea Leadsom into the last two.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

7 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

You use the word "thought" there as if you've changed your mind on that. If so, that would be a very silly thing to do.

Nah, more like a bit surprised that Werthead's post sounded a bit like that an outstanding May speech (Better don't ask the goverment what Brexit can do for you, ask what you can sacrifice for Brexit), would have changed that much, with regards to  non-Tories looking with a mixture of bemusement and horror at Boris and Jacob, while the rank and file Tories value their credentials as party leaders.

Anyhow. Small question for @mormont or any other resident Scot. Your take on the new Ireland post Brexit idea floating around. That the Irish Island as a whole would be regarded as part of the customs union and that the border and customs checks are performed on goods entering the Island. I mean from Scottish perspective I'd probably be fuming, that NI (as the only other part of the UK having voted remain) would get to more or less remain thanks to some geographical fluke. While Scotland is bound to go out with Wales and England.

Follow up questions how likely is that proposal gonna work with the DUP May's vote supply.

Meanwhile the EU-UK Trade under WTO rules bubble is not bursting, yet. But it's not really not as easy as Brexiteer oracles predicted. Fun fact, Brexit is wonderful idea Donnie and his goverment are one of the countries applying pressure there. :')

[Werthead]

Quote

 

Your take on the new Ireland post Brexit idea floating around. That the Irish Island as a whole would be regarded as part of the customs union and that the border and customs checks are performed on goods entering the Island.

 

I believe the Irish government has explicitly ruled this out. They have zero interest in any obstacles being put in front of visitors or goods entering the Republic from the rest of the EU, even if the British government pays for it. You seem to be visualising it as Northern Ireland being excluded from the rest of the UK and kept as part of Ireland and the EU, but the Irish government's view of the plan is that it's Ireland being half-dragged out of the EU with the UK.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I think the EU could always try to sweeten the pot for the Republic a bit. There are two European agencies moving out of London and looking for a new home. I can see one of them going to Ireland, in part to make up for the losses of the decreasing UK Ireland trade.

[Werthead]

BBC Newsnight reporting that the Royal Marines will lose their two assault ships which would effectively make it impossible for them to carry out their core mission of amphibious assaults. If they're going to do that, they should probably considering abolishing the marines altogether. Fecking hell.

[Liffguard]

35 minutes ago, Werthead said:

BBC Newsnight reporting that the Royal Marines will lose their two assault ships which would effectively make it impossible for them to carry out their core mission of amphibious assaults. If they're going to do that, they should probably considering abolishing the marines altogether. Fecking hell.

Technically it would still be possible to do helo operations off an aircraft carrier, and the RFA Bay class ships can operate smaller amphibious craft. But yeah, practically speaking without Bulwark and Albion or equivalent replacements then amphibious operations will become incredibly difficult. Considering the corps is set to lose over a thousand personnel anyway, it does make me very concerned for their future. UK defense is being hollowed out. The MOD is far too concerned with big prestige projects like supercarriers at the expense of far more unglamorous but essential capabilities.

[mormont]

14 hours ago, Notone said:

Anyhow. Small question for @mormont or any other resident Scot. Your take on the new Ireland post Brexit idea floating around. That the Irish Island as a whole would be regarded as part of the customs union and that the border and customs checks are performed on goods entering the Island. I mean from Scottish perspective I'd probably be fuming, that NI (as the only other part of the UK having voted remain) would get to more or less remain thanks to some geographical fluke. While Scotland is bound to go out with Wales and England.

There's a bit more to it than 'a geographical fluke', and I wouldn't be annoyed if NI got a special deal. Heck, it's going to have to get some kind of special deal. But this one doesn't strike me as any more workable than any of the other bright ideas that have been floated.

It remains one of the biggest disgraces of modern British politics that there was so little serious discussion of this issue in the referendum campaign.

[polishgenius]

So the starting gun on the backbench rebellion against May has been fired... by Grant Shapps.

 

 

...yeah, I'm not sure he's got the authority or popularity within the party to pull that one off.

[Maltaran]

38 minutes ago, polishgenius said:

So the starting gun on the backbench rebellion against May has been fired... by Grant Shapps.

 

 

...yeah, I'm not sure he's got the authority or popularity within the party to pull that one off.

At least half the names on the list will be his own aliases

[Werthead]

A leadership challenge now would be insane. The new leader would immediately come under fire to hold a general election to get a personal mandate like May did (after the shit the Tories gave Gordon Brown over not having an election for three years) and at present the Tories would risk losing that election. This is the only thing keeping May in power. In addition, none of the prospective heavy hitters want to deal with Brexit, as they know it will likely wreck their careers and long-term reputations. Johnson is only 53, he may be thinking that even if Labour gets in in the next year or two and has two terms, he'd still have a shot at coming back later on, whilst right now it's a poisoned chalice.

We now have a new twist: the US authorities putting the squeeze on Bombardier, whose Northern Ireland facilities are located in DUP territory, and the DUP wanting the government to do everything possible to protect Bombardier or retaliate against Boeing (who employ far more people on the UK mainland). If the DUP deems that the government is not protecting their constituents, they are capable of tearing the government down.

Fun times.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Well, it's certainly entertaining. And it's saving Labour the embarassment of sorting their act out, while in power.

Maybe some Labour insiders can help me out, but from what I gathered from the outside it looks like there atm from different ideas for Labour's future. The Corbynistas, the Blarites, and some strange UKIP Labour apparently advocated by Kate Hoey. So I am really not sure, that another election is in the best interest of Labour (short term taking back power is always a good idea), but the Tory sideshow is at least keeping Labour out of the headlines. During a general election they might suddenly be forced to figure out what they envision for the country (apart from ending austerity, and demanding to know the whereabouts of May's moneytree).

[Werthead]

Labour are getting good mileage out of "strategic vagueness", basically keeping their options open on a number of topics to see how things pan out (most notably Brexit). Another election would force them to have to make final ideas on those policies, which could misfire if they misjudge the public mood.

[The Marquis de Leech]

On 08/10/2017 at 5:24 AM, Notone said:

Well, it's certainly entertaining. And it's saving Labour the embarassment of sorting their act out, while in power.

Maybe some Labour insiders can help me out, but from what I gathered from the outside it looks like there atm from different ideas for Labour's future. The Corbynistas, the Blarites, and some strange UKIP Labour apparently advocated by Kate Hoey. So I am really not sure, that another election is in the best interest of Labour (short term taking back power is always a good idea), but the Tory sideshow is at least keeping Labour out of the headlines. During a general election they might suddenly be forced to figure out what they envision for the country (apart from ending austerity, and demanding to know the whereabouts of May's moneytree).

There always are.

The Labour Civil War is still actually simmering, in the form of the Left having an eye to Corbyn's eventual successor, and the Right complaining about alleged cultism, but the bulk of the PLP are now quite happy to ride the post-June Corbyn wave. The 1983 comparisons have completely vanished, for a start. 

[Rorshach]

Re: borders and Ireland, there probably will be some deal or other. Norway is a example here. We’re certainly not in the EU (rejected twice in referendums), but we are part of the Schengen area simply because excluding us would be unworkable. 

Our border with Sweden is very long indeed, and unpatrolled just about everywhere.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Yes, but you still have custom checks up there.

[Rorshach]

2 hours ago, Notone said:

Yes, but you still have custom checks up there.

Sort of. You may be stopped, looking for smuggled goods and such, but the sporadic checks do not really rise to customs checks.. 

Also, you can easily get around it if you want by taking the train, walking, or taking one of the several lesser roads across. 

How is that inside the EU, btw? Tax free on airports still a thing?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

That's for the "individual" traffic. But for trucks running goods from Norway into Sweden (the EU) it's a bit different. Traffic of goods.

One sec (no idea why I write that in a forum post) I will look up a youtube link from BBC's newsnight, when they looked into a Norway solution for Ireland. Anyway, here you go.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xq-ysPcjG-8

Yes, an Irish solution might look like something like that. But if I am not mistaken, the Irish border is more frequented than the Norway-Sweden one. And goods would take longer to travel south, which would be somewhat of a nuisance for companies in the Republic.

[Rorshach]

Ok, thanks!

I’ll just ask some more, because this isn’t something I know too much about. Why would you assume it’s more frequented? Length of the border? Probably, but if the solution is emulated, it would not mean much for everyman. 

As for goods, yes, they would indeed take longer time - but how much comes through NI? I would assume most goods for ROI comes via ports, which would change irregardless of the NI border? Am I missing much here?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I've heard/read somewhere, that the Irish border is more frequented than the entirety of the eastern border of the EU. I really can't find the source anymore (unfortunately). So I simply assumed that Sweden-Norway is not quite in the same league. What I could find however is this.

It's from wikipedia (I know, I know). 

Quote

The border is linked with 200 border crossing points (to 300^[17]). While UK is a member of European union, every month, around 177,000 lorries and 208,000 vans, and 1,850,000 cars cross that border. Additionally around 30,000 people cross the border daily because they don't live and work on the same side.^[18]

 

So if you or anybody else can provide numbers that show the traffic between Norway and Sweden is higher, than I'll happily concede that point.

 

Edit.

If I am not mistaken, the Irish dairy industry will be particularly annoyed over such an arrangement. As quite a bit of the milk comes from farms in the north. And vice versa. Let's assume there's no deal for Britain and no special deal for NI. Now it's time to add some tariffs to the milk. Which might even be the least of their worries.

Edit 2:

Small interesting Politico article on the Sweden Norway model for Post Brexit Ireland.

[Rorshach]

Well, poking around in official documents (National Plan for Transportation, found here), it seems that monthly (my maths) about 1.200.000 cars pass between Norway and Sweden, and 162.000 trucks/lorries (the plan didn’t make a distinction). So NI/ROI sees more transport.