NFL 2017 Preaseason: Zeke the Freak to Sit 6 Weeks

[Maithanet]

21 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Come on man, I’m at work. I don’t have the time to write you an essay on why three of the least talented rosters in the NFL combined would still be a meh team.

Fair enough, I'll wait, it is a slow day here. 

Denver's defense was an all time great, no argument there.  But a lot of that was that it was a defense with no real weaknesses, deep talent at secondary and one truly great pass rusher in Miller.  I think that the Tyrannosaur's defense would be similarly solid across the board, similarly deep in the secondary and between guys like Leonard, Garrett and Collins could likewise generate some real (and immediate) pass rush.  So the potential is there to be a great defense as well.

However, my other point is that they don't have to be great.  A very good defense would be sufficient.  Denver's offense was 25th in the league.  A lot of that was because the quarterback was terrible, but the O-line and running back would be much better on the Tyrannosaurs than the Broncos, whereas the TE and WR would be at least as good up top, and with better depth.  You put together a solid group like that and even a mediocre quarterback like Kessler could succeed.  I think that even with a bad quarterback, the offense could still put up numbers comparable to the  Bills last year (18th in passing, 10th overall). 

Assume slightly above average special teams (12th in the league), which with 3 teams to pick from seems perfectly reasonable.  Assume an offense like the Bills last year, relying on the run, and nothing special at passing the ball. 

Now let's say that the Jag's defense from last year improves from 12th to 5th.  To me this seems very conservative with the depth of talent they're adding.  The 5th rated defense last year was Seattle, with a DVOA of -10.6%.  Buffalo's 10th rated offense was 10.7%.  The #12 special teams adds 0.8%.  That is a team DVOA of 22.1%.  Last year, that's the second best team in the league after New England (24%).  That's a contender. 

Sure, the Tyrannosaurs aren't an overwhelming favorite, but I never said they would be.  I said they'd make the playoffs and be a contender if luck goes their way.  And I don't know how you'd argue they wouldn't be, since I feel like I'm being pretty conservative with these assumptions. 

EDIT:  Grammar

[briantw]

4 hours ago, Maithanet said:

The Broncos won the Super Bowl with a terrible quarterback.  Not a so-so quarterback, not a mediocre quarterback, a really terrible one.  And the Jets/Browns/Jags would be more talented than that Denver squad. 

I don't have a PFF subscription, so I can't break down how dominant each player on these teams is, but a combined team would be better than Denver's, and I don't think it would be particularly close.  In 2015 Denver had a mediocre O line (17th in DVOA).  In comparison Cleveland's 2017 O line is ranked #2 on PFF, and they could take guys from Jacksonville and NYJ to help with depth. 

Their front 7 on defense would be more talented than Denver's.  The linebackers lack one dominant guy like Miller, but PFF ranks their units at #14 (Jax), #18 (NYJ) and #24 (CLE).  So there's talent there.  If you take Jacksonville's unit and add talented guys like Leonard Williams, Myles Garrett and Jamie Collins, you've got a helluva squad.  And of course, when you combine three teams, depth is going to be far better than what Denver had. 

On the secondary, Jacksonville is already ranked 6th for 2017, and you could take standouts from Cleveland (Joe Haden if he's healthy and Jamar Taylor) and NYJ (Mo Claiborne was excellent last year, Jamal Adams).  That's gonna be a great unit and great depth.

Running backs?  Well, a unit with Leonard Fournette, Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell is going to have no trouble running through holes the O line opens up.  This is clearly better than what Denver had in 2015 (in case you're forgetting, CJ Anderson was the starting running back for Denver, and he was ranked 28th in the NFL that year on FO. 

Offensive weapons?  The Browns have two TEs in Barnridge and first rounder Njoku.  Take the Jags recievers and add in Britt and Coleman, you've got a solid and very deep squad. 

Across the board, this is a better unit than what Denver had in 2015.  The only problem is quarterback.  And while Kessler looks like he isn't going to win the starting job in Cleveland, if the Brown Jaguars Riding Jets had this much talent, they'd probably go with the experienced, mediocre guy to avoid rookie mistakes.  And with this much talent around him?  Kessler might join Trent Dilfer in worst QB to win the Super Bowl.  Kaepernick would make this team a SB favorite, they're far more talented than the SF teams he led to the NFCCG. 

1. Gary Barnidge no longer plays for the Browns.  I assume he's gone back to his true calling: replacing sprinkler systems and landscaping.  However, Seth DeValve looks like he's going to be pretty good, and should be a big part of the Browns' passing game this year.

2. I think Kizer would probably end up being the QB.  He already won the Browns job, and he's got a big arm that would be ideal for throwing to all the Jags receivers, plus Britt and Coleman.  He also doesn't have the stink on him that Bortles and Henne do.  We know those guys suck.  We don't know if Kizer sucks yet.

[Maithanet]

3 minutes ago, briantw said:

1. Gary Barnidge no longer plays for the Browns.  I assume he's gone back to his true calling: replacing sprinkler systems and landscaping.  However, Seth DeValve looks like he's going to be pretty good, and should be a big part of the Browns' passing game this year.

2. I think Kizer would probably end up being the QB.  He already won the Browns job, and he's got a big arm that would be ideal for throwing to all the Jags receivers, plus Britt and Coleman.  He also doesn't have the stink on him that Bortles and Henne do.  We know those guys suck.  We don't know if Kizer sucks yet.

Yeah, like I said these are not my teams, so I'm going to miss some roster movement.  Barnidge rated pretty decently last year, interesting that he isn't on a roster.

And yes, I agree that Kizer is probably going to win the starting job this year.  But I maintain that the 2017 Browns are in a different situation than the 2017 Tyrannosaurs would be, and thus starting a guy with at least some experience like Kessler would make more sense.  Even better would be to sign Kaep or trade a couple of the many decent players who aren't going to make the cutdown from 90 to 53 of this superteam for one of the better backups in the league. 

[briantw]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Yeah, like I said these are not my teams, so I'm going to miss some roster movement.  Barnidge rated pretty decently last year, interesting that he isn't on a roster.

And yes, I agree that Kizer is probably going to win the starting job this year.  But I maintain that the 2017 Browns are in a different situation than the 2017 Tyrannosaurs would be, and thus starting a guy with at least some experience like Kessler would make more sense.  Even better would be to sign Kaep or trade a couple of the many decent players who aren't going to make the cutdown from 90 to 53 of this superteam for one of the better backups in the league. 

I think they cut Barnidge because they had just drafted Njoku and they drafted DeValve last year (in the third I think...may have been the fourth) and wanted to clear room for him to be the primary TE this year while Njoku learns the position.  Both guys are young and stellar athletes, whereas Barnidge didn't break out until like his age 29 season and had a limited shelf-life.  He just didn't make sense for a team in year two of the rebuild.  I am surprised he hasn't caught on anywhere else yet, though.

Yeah, starting Kessler might make more sense, but ultimately I think they'd start the best QB, and that appears to be Kizer right now.  He's easily outplayed Osweiler thus far to the point that they just announced he's starting week three.  And given that Kessler has been the third QB throughout the entire process, it's pretty clear that he's not winning the job either.  I think they see Kessler for what he is...a career back-up.  He's a guy you have on your roster because you know that, if your starter gets hurt, he's decent enough to come in and manage games, but he's not good enough to win them for you either.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

 I like The Tyrannosaurus Jets but the only way I can seem to work in a Florida/Ohio reference is to have them play at the University of Miami at Ohio.

[Rhom]

Just as a bit of a thought exercise... I thought I'd rank the NFL starting QBs and see where I'd slot Kaepernick in there.  Keep in mind that I am a Niners fan who was ready for Kaep to leave before the protests started and was high on him prior to Harbaugh leaving.  So going off the depth chart that I found here I'm placing them in a rough order of 1-32, then will see where I'd stick the tatt'd up, afro wearing, public enemy number one (who can't read defenses or make a short to intermediate pass).

Okay... nevermind the 1-32... that's too hard.  I'm going to take my rough 1-32 and put them into tiers.  Trying to decide who is more terrible between Bortles, Goff, Siemian, and Tolzien is too tough.  (I used Tolzien instead of Luck... but otherwise I stuck with their depth chart.  So I have Osweiller over Kizer and Moore over Cutler for now.)

Top
Brady

Next Up
Rodgers
Breesus
Ryan
Carr

Top Ten(ish)
Stafford
Newton
Roethlisberger
Eli
Palmer
Wilson

Guys outside the Top Ten but definitely better than the others
Rios
Prescott
Cousins
Winston
Mariota
Dalton
Flacco

Legit starters... but the team is definitely looking for their QB
Savage
Wentz (maybe that title isn't fair... but this is his tier in my book)
Bradford
Hoyer

These guys really have starting NFL jobs???
Osweiller
Moore (or Cutler here if you'd like)
Tyrod Taylor (I had to actually use his first name because I didn't think people would know who he was)
McCown
Tolzien (or the corpse of Andrew Luck... successful resurrection would put him up in the top tenish easily)
Glennon
Siemien
Goff
Bortles

So looking over that list... I would comfortably put Kaepernick into that Savage/Wentz/Bradford category without any qualms.

[Jace, Extat]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Matthew Stafford’s name has been mentioned a lot lately because he’s up for a new contract, and there’s a brutal stat that’s being brought up too. He’s 5-46 against teams who end the season with a winning record. Yikes!

Yeah, I get angry beyond reason every time I hear this turd stat compiler celebrated. He's fine, nothing more.

1 hour ago, Rhom said:

Just as a bit of a thought exercise... I thought I'd rank the NFL starting QBs and see where I'd slot Kaepernick in there.  Keep in mind that I am a Niners fan who was ready for Kaep to leave before the protests started and was high on him prior to Harbaugh leaving.  So going off the depth chart that I found here I'm placing them in a rough order of 1-32, then will see where I'd stick the tatt'd up, afro wearing, public enemy number one (who can't read defenses or make a short to intermediate pass).

Okay... nevermind the 1-32... that's too hard.  I'm going to take my rough 1-32 and put them into tiers.  Trying to decide who is more terrible between Bortles, Goff, Siemian, and Tolzien is too tough.  (I used Tolzien instead of Luck... but otherwise I stuck with their depth chart.  So I have Osweiller over Kizer and Moore over Cutler for now.)

Top
Brady

Next Up
Rodgers
Breesus
Ryan
Carr

Top Ten(ish)
Stafford
Newton
Roethlisberger
Eli
Palmer
Wilson

Guys outside the Top Ten but definitely better than the others
Rios
Prescott
Cousins
Winston
Mariota
Dalton
Flacco

Legit starters... but the team is definitely looking for their QB
Savage
Wentz (maybe that title isn't fair... but this is his tier in my book)
Bradford
Hoyer

These guys really have starting NFL jobs???
Osweiller
Moore (or Cutler here if you'd like)
Tyrod Taylor (I had to actually use his first name because I didn't think people would know who he was)
McCown
Tolzien (or the corpse of Andrew Luck... successful resurrection would put him up in the top tenish easily)
Glennon
Siemien
Goff
Bortles

So looking over that list... I would comfortably put Kaepernick into that Savage/Wentz/Bradford category without any qualms.

You have Matt Ryan above Wilson? You're out of your mind.

Also, is it weird that I have a sick desire to see Andrew retire at this point?

[Rhom]

20 minutes ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

You have Matt Ryan above Wilson? You're out of your mind.

Also, is it weird that I have a sick desire to see Andrew retire at this point?

Hell yes I have Matt Ryan above Russell Wilson, because I think he plays a style of ball that translates to longevity in the league.  The Seahawks have allowed their offensive line to become downright offensive.  

At this point, I think anyone who truly cared for his safety and didn't want to see his arm amputated at the shoulder would prefer to see that for him.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

@Maithanet,

I don't want to waste your time spinning in circles, so I'll just say this. I will concede that 6 games may have been too low, but they are a fringe playoff team at best, and if they were to make it in, chances are better than not that they get bounced in the first round, and they'd probably get skunked. I think your analysis of the Tyrannosaurs' defense is spot on, they would absolutely have a shot at being a top 5 defense. But I just don't see how this offense would sniff anything near the top 10. They'd have a great O-line and a solid RB rotation, but I'm not sold on this receiving core at all. Their TEs would be fine, but the WRs are not very good (sorry I don't have hard data to back this claim up, but I looked at a few sites that ranked each teams receiving core and all three teams were in the bottom third with the Jets being last in all of them). The two best WRs from these three teams from last year are gone (Pryor and Marshall) and what's left is a collection of OK guys. Unless I missed someone, the best WR on the Tyrannosaurs is Allen Robinson, who has had one good season and was the main benefactor from Bortles Time. Everyone else seems either average at best or unproven talent. Now that in and of it self doesn't automatically sink a team, but it sure can when paired with either a bad QB or a young inexperienced QB. The Tyrannosaurs will be a tough defensive-ground and pound team, but their lack of an effective passing game will hold them back from being a contender. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Pony Queen Jace said:

Yeah, I get angry beyond reason every time I hear this turd stat compiler celebrated. He's fine, nothing more.

He's so inconsistent. I feel like in one game he'll look like a top 8 QB and in another he'll look like a bottom 8 QB. 

[Jace, Extat]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

He's so inconsistent. I feel like in one game he'll look like a top 8 QB and in another he'll look like a bottom 8 QB. 

He's literally a full time Bottles. Putting up chunk gains against prevent defenses and dumping off to RBs who average 50 yac.

Eta: seriously I don't understand what makes shitty teams play defense against the Lions like they're the 04 Colts. THEY CAN'T RUN OR BLOCK! MAN DEFENSE PLUS 5 RUSHERS = SACK / DOUBLE TEAM GOLDEN GATE AHH THE LINE = STAFFORD KILLS HIMSELF

[briantw]

11 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

@Maithanet,

I don't want to waste your time spinning in circles, so I'll just say this. I will concede that 6 games may have been too low, but they are a fringe playoff team at best, and if they were to make it in, chances are better than not that they get bounced in the first round, and they'd probably get skunked. I think your analysis of the Tyrannosaurs' defense is spot on, they would absolutely have a shot at being a top 5 defense. But I just don't see how this offense would sniff anything near the top 10. They'd have a great O-line and a solid RB rotation, but I'm not sold on this receiving core at all. Their TEs would be fine, but the WRs are not very good (sorry I don't have hard data to back this claim up, but I looked at a few sites that ranked each teams receiving core and all three teams were in the bottom third with the Jets being last in all of them). The two best WRs from these three teams from last year are gone (Pryor and Marshall) and what's left is a collection of OK guys. Unless I missed someone, the best WR on the Tyrannosaurs is Allen Robinson, who has had one good season and was the main benefactor from Bortles Time. Everyone else seems either average at best or unproven talent. Now that in and of it self doesn't automatically sink a team, but it sure can when paired with either a bad QB or a young inexperienced QB. The Tyrannosaurs will be a tough defensive-ground and pound team, but their lack of an effective passing game will hold them back from being a contender. 

I think people are holding a down year against Robinson very unfairly.  He had some of the worst QB play in the league to deal with last year, and much like Hopkins he really suffered for it.  Jacksonville also spent less of their games in garbage time, which meant less of Bortles just chucking it up and praying and more short routes and running the ball.  Robinson was considered one of the absolute best young receivers in the league a little over a year ago, and I don't think he suddenly became untalented over night.  He just had Bortles throwing to him, and Bortles is a dumpster fire with arms.

I'd be totally sold on a WR core that includes Robinson, Kenny Britt, Marqise Lee (who broke out last year), and Corey Coleman.  That's one of the best top to bottom receiver groups in the league if you give them anything other than shit at QB.  Kenny Britt had a thousand yard season with the Rams last year!  A thousand yards!  With the Rams!  I don't even know who started the first half of the season at QB for the Rams.  Do you?  I do know that whoever it was sucked.  And Goff was even worse than Bortles when he did start playing toward the end of the year.  

And that's not even bringing up Njoku and DeValve, both of whom look like they could be great receiving TEs.  Njoku averaged ten yards after the catch in college.  Do you have any idea how absurd that stat is?  Every time he caught the ball he got you ten more yards from that point.  That is absolutely insane.  He probably won't give much this year, but he could be an absolute monster in a year or two.  Plus, the Jets have Sefarian-Jenkins, who has had some issues off the field, but who is one of the most efficient TEs in the league when he actually gets targeted.  

[Rhom]

Not strictly related... but didn't know where else to post.

Maybe ESPN should have kept Kanell in the purge instead...

Quote

Police were called to the scene where they reportedly found Ryen Russillo, host of “The Russillo Show” on ESPN Radio, in a bedroom around 3:30 a.m. A condo resident told police he heard someone enter his home, but assumed it was a family member until Russillo reportedly walked in the bedroom.

“Officers found the defendant, later identified as Ryen August Russillo, lying on the bed in the south bedroom naked except for his pants around his ankles,” a probable cause affidavit obtained by the Jackson Hole News & Guide states.

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

15 hours ago, briantw said:

I'd be totally sold on a WR core that includes Robinson, Kenny Britt, Marqise Lee (who broke out last year), and Corey Coleman.  That's one of the best top to bottom receiver groups in the league if you give them anything other than shit at QB.  

Eh, in my eyes that’s just a group of OK dudes.You look at the depth and say, “Wow!!!,” but it doesn’t change the fact that the ones are pretty average, especially with marginal QB play.

[Maithanet]

15 hours ago, briantw said:

I'd be totally sold on a WR core that includes Robinson, Kenny Britt, Marqise Lee (who broke out last year), and Corey Coleman.  That's one of the best top to bottom receiver groups in the league if you give them anything other than shit at QB.  Kenny Britt had a thousand yard season with the Rams last year!  A thousand yards!  With the Rams!  I don't even know who started the first half of the season at QB for the Rams.  Do you?  I do know that whoever it was sucked.  And Goff was even worse than Bortles when he did start playing toward the end of the year. 

I agree that lineup would be a very good unit, there are only a couple of teams I'd say have better options than that.  In general, I feel like teams with 4 good receivers are often better than teams with an elite WR1 and a bunch of JAGs around him.  Lots of teams can adjust to double cover one very good reciever, but when you have four guys who are at least decent, you can find a mismatch because very few teams have four DBs that can really play. 

16 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

@Maithanet,

I don't want to waste your time spinning in circles, so I'll just say this. I will concede that 6 games may have been too low, but they are a fringe playoff team at best, and if they were to make it in, chances are better than not that they get bounced in the first round, and they'd probably get skunked. I think your analysis of the Tyrannosaurs' defense is spot on, they would absolutely have a shot at being a top 5 defense. But I just don't see how this offense would sniff anything near the top 10. They'd have a great O-line and a solid RB rotation, but I'm not sold on this receiving core at all. Their TEs would be fine, but the WRs are not very good

I disagree that the WRs are not very good, I think they're at least a top 10 unit.  Those four guys were rated as #19 (Lee), #28 (Britt), #73 (Robinson) and #89 (Coleman).  Robinson however, was rated #8 in 2015, and Coleman was a rookie last year, so there's reason to expect improvement from both of them.

And the team I was comparing this offense to was last year's Bills, we're not talking about worldbeaters here.  That team had a below average O line (16th in run blocking, 31st in pass blocking), good running backs, and mediocre receivers (Woods, Watkins and Goodwin were rated 46th, 64th and 88th on FO).  They also had Tyrod Taylor, who is indeed better than anyone on the Tyrannosaurs, but hardly some unstoppable offensive force. 

I'm confident that with a much better O line and better receivers that you could close the gap between the Tyrannosaurs quarterback (be it Kessler or Kizer) and Tyrod Taylor.  Because they are as good or better everywhere else on offense. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I’m just not seeing it. Again, every site I’ve looked at has the 2017 Browns and Jets as two of the worst WR cores in the league and the Jags at best are middle of the pack, and that’s all based on one good season from Allen when he got a lot of garbage time yards and TDs. And you’re still going to have marginal QB play unless Kizer is this year’s Dak. I wouldn’t trust that team.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

New hypothetical. Which team would be better, the San Francisco Ramming Bears or the Tyrannosaurs?

[Maithanet]

13 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’m just not seeing it. Again, every site I’ve looked at has the 2017 Browns and Jets as two of the worst WR cores in the league and the Jags at best are middle of the pack, and that’s all based on one good season from Allen when he got a lot of garbage time yards and TDs. And you’re still going to have marginal QB play unless Kizer is this year’s Dak. I wouldn’t trust that team.

My point, that I feel like is coming up over and over again, is the NFL teams are talented.  And even a terrible unit (be it receivers, O line, whatever) almost always has at least one guy who is above average, if not better.  There are a few exceptions, like this year's Jets receivers who got rid of their two veteran receivers only to have the only proven young guy (Enunwa) get hurt.  But that is the rare exception, and even if you're just taking receivers from the Browns and Jags, between those two teams you have a very strong group of pass catchers.

[Maithanet]

17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

New hypothetical. Which team would be better, the San Francisco Ramming Bears or the Tyrannosaurs?

Oh man, breaking down just the Tyrannosaurs was kind of a lot of work.  If you want to put together who is on the Golddigging RamBears, I'll compare them, but I'm not going to do the leg work on that one. 

[Prince of the North]

17 hours ago, briantw said:

I think people are holding a down year against Robinson very unfairly.  He had some of the worst QB play in the league to deal with last year, and much like Hopkins he really suffered for it.  Jacksonville also spent less of their games in garbage time, which meant less of Bortles just chucking it up and praying and more short routes and running the ball.  Robinson was considered one of the absolute best young receivers in the league a little over a year ago, and I don't think he suddenly became untalented over night.  He just had Bortles throwing to him, and Bortles is a dumpster fire with arms.

I'd be totally sold on a WR core that includes Robinson, Kenny Britt, Marqise Lee (who broke out last year), and Corey Coleman.  That's one of the best top to bottom receiver groups in the league if you give them anything other than shit at QB.  Kenny Britt had a thousand yard season with the Rams last year!  A thousand yards!  With the Rams!  I don't even know who started the first half of the season at QB for the Rams.  Do you?  I do know that whoever it was sucked.  And Goff was even worse than Bortles when he did start playing toward the end of the year.  

And that's not even bringing up Njoku and DeValve, both of whom look like they could be great receiving TEs.  Njoku averaged ten yards after the catch in college.  Do you have any idea how absurd that stat is?  Every time he caught the ball he got you ten more yards from that point.  That is absolutely insane.  He probably won't give much this year, but he could be an absolute monster in a year or two.  Plus, the Jets have Sefarian-Jenkins, who has had some issues off the field, but who is one of the most efficient TEs in the league when he actually gets targeted.  

Yeah, he's backing up Sam Bradford in Minnesota this year (i.e. Case Keenum).