u.s. politics: now guaranteed to contain no less than 35% u.s. political content

[Kalbear]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Smart money is The Kush if you allow resignations to count as being fired. He apparently didn't tell the Senators in their private hearing that he was using a private email address to conduct government affairs. Given that the main attack on Clinton was her email use, it's hard to see him lasting too much longer. 

Kushner would be a real interesting test, in that he'd be the first family member that Trump actively trusts as family being ousted. I'm pretty reluctant to call that likely, even with all the smoke around him. 

I'll go to the easy scapegoat and call on Sarah Sanders. 

[Fez]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Smart money is The Kush if you allow resignations to count as being fired. He apparently didn't tell the Senators in their private hearing that he was using a private email address to conduct government affairs. Given that the main attack on Clinton was her email use, it's hard to see him lasting too much longer. 

He's still family though. I think it'll be either Pruitt (who's own use of taxpayer money has started getting a lot of press too, even if Price had been overshadowing it until now) or Mnuchin (if the tax cut effort fails or drags on too long and has had his own serious scandals).

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

5 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It does, but it underplays it.

The real thing that it fails to understand is that McConnell is not interested in any way, shape or form in actual legislative wins, because he wants less legislation. He wants to make it virtually impossible to pass most laws, period. The most telling thing from McConnell's time as majority leader is that Republicans are laser-focused on passing laws via only one means - reconciliation - and blocking basically anything else that doesn't work that way. 

What this article seems to think is a bug is a feature for Republicans. 

Instead, Republicans get a supreme court that will decide on narrow margins the fairly broad rights of citizens and corporations, repealing of  tax codes and health care, some budget boosts that will increase the deficit and executive orders that can be done via fiat. This is a massive win and something that is likely to succeed for the next 20 years as a plan, as no matter what almost no legislation will be passed and SCOTUS will remain conservative for a while. 

Sure, I agree with all of that. The writer is clearly writing with a (D) bias here.

That said, this proclivity for blocking has come back to bite him on the ass when something comes up that he actually wants to pass, right? This inclination of his has resulted in him being deficient at the sort of consensus building that say Reid was fairly handy at.

[Morpheus]

Pruitt has had a lot of success at demolishing the EPA from the inside and satisfying his buddies in the fossil fuel industry. He might survive a scandal.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

25 minutes ago, Fez said:

He's still family though. I think it'll be either Pruitt (who's own use of taxpayer money has started getting a lot of press too, even if Price had been overshadowing it until now) or Mnuchin (if the tax cut effort fails or drags on too long and has had his own serious scandals).

But that's kind of my point. He'll get cut loose to protect himself. But that said, yeah, those are good options too. 

ETA:

Now that I think about it, Mnuchin is a really good bet. The NYT has a great article which I'll link below about how much Trump could save in taxes if something like the proposed tax reform goes through. The Trumps would likely save over $1b on the repeal of the estate tax alone:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/09/28/us/politics/trump-tax-benefit.html

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Kushner would be a real interesting test, in that he'd be the first family member that Trump actively trusts as family being ousted. I'm pretty reluctant to call that likely, even with all the smoke around him. 

I'll go to the easy scapegoat and call on Sarah Sanders. 

While not exactly the same, didn't he sort of throw Don Jr. under the bus after he met with the Russian lawyer? Because if I recall correctly, Trump was the one that wanted the letter changed and after the negative fallout he basically said that he had nothing to do with it. 

Sanders is also interesting, and there are rumors that Trump wants Hope Hicks to eventually have the job, but I don't see SHS getting fire. I think it's more likely that she quits, but I'm less convinced of that than I was before.

[Kalbear]

5 minutes ago, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

Sure, I agree with all of that. The writer is clearly writing with a (D) bias here.

That said, this proclivity for blocking has come back to bite him on the ass when something comes up that he actually wants to pass, right? This inclination of his has resulted in him being deficient at the sort of consensus building that say Reid was fairly handy at.

Kind of? Repealing the ACA would have probably been worse for Republicans than keeping it, broken promises and all. The main limiting factor isn't building consensus or not (which he doesn't want anyway) - it's that he can't do very many good pieces of legislation in the framework of reconciliation. So he's kind of stuck in that way.

But while this does hurt him somewhat, the failure mode of congress not being able to get anything done is a feature for him, and a good failure option. He basically has set it up so that 95% of the time congress can do nothing, and 5% it can do something evil. 

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

While not exactly the same, didn't he sort of throw Don Jr. under the bus after he met with the Russian lawyer? Because if I recall correctly, Trump was the one that wanted the letter changed and after the negative fallout he basically said that he had nothing to do with it. 

Oh sure, he'll lie about these things. But that's Trump anyway. Trump lied about why Flynn got canned, he lied about Spicer, he lied about Mooch, he lied about everyone. That's no big deal.

But actually firing someone in the family would be a big deal, and piss Ivanka off. I'm not sure he wants to do that because it would suck for him personally. I mean, in all this massive carnage and bad press about Kushner, he has had zero responsibility taken away or even been chided in any way. Kushner won out over Bannon. Kushner won out over mooch. 

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sanders is also interesting, and there are rumors that Trump wants Hope Hicks to eventually have the job, but I don't see SHS getting fire. I think it's more likely that she quits, but I'm less convinced of that than I was before.

Her openly lying recently to cover Trump's lies is getting a lot of pressure. My bet is that we get another skewering of her on SNL and she'll be gone. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

Kind of? Repealing the ACA would have probably been worse for Republicans than keeping it, broken promises and all. The main limiting factor isn't building consensus or not (which he doesn't want anyway) - it's that he can't do very many good pieces of legislation in the framework of reconciliation. So he's kind of stuck in that way.

That's one way to look at it, I suppose, but only if you buy that he truly didn't want to pass one of these repeal and replace bills. I didn't get that impression. 

[Kalbear]

Just now, Manhole Eunuchsbane said:

That's one way to look at it, I suppose, but only if you buy that he truly didn't want to pass one of these repeal and replace bills. I didn't get that impression. 

He didn't want to particularly much. He wants to move to taxes. He always has. He wanted to back the first time, and the second time. Especially since losing out on a lot of the benefits that the ACA provides would actually be harmful to a lot of his constituents, and Kentucky isn't as heavily conservative as it could be. 

He also wants Trump to shut the fuck up already. 

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

3 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

He didn't want to particularly much. He wants to move to taxes. He always has. He wanted to back the first time, and the second time. Especially since losing out on a lot of the benefits that the ACA provides would actually be harmful to a lot of his constituents, and Kentucky isn't as heavily conservative as it could be. 

He also wants Trump to shut the fuck up already. 

But the tax thing becomes a lot harder without the repeal and replace, right? I don't know. I have a hard time buying that he didn't want these first two attempts to go through. The look of frustration on his face when McCain gave the thumb's down on the 2nd bill seemed pretty genuine to me.

Of course he wants Trump to shut up. Join the fucking club, Yertle.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

2 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Oh sure, he'll lie about these things. But that's Trump anyway. Trump lied about why Flynn got canned, he lied about Spicer, he lied about Mooch, he lied about everyone. That's no big deal.

But actually firing someone in the family would be a big deal, and piss Ivanka off. I'm not sure he wants to do that because it would suck for him personally. I mean, in all this massive carnage and bad press about Kushner, he has had zero responsibility taken away or even been chided in any way. Kushner won out over Bannon. Kushner won out over mooch. 

That's an interesting point. Makes one wonder if Trump would take the fall to protect his kids or would he throw them all under the bus to try to save himself. Everything Trump's ever said and done makes the latter seem plausible, but on the other hand the only thing he loves besides himself are his kids. 

4 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Her openly lying recently to cover Trump's lies is getting a lot of pressure. My bet is that we get another skewering of her on SNL and she'll be gone. 

Yeah, but that's nothing new, and I'm sure Trump likes that she's willing to tell absurd lies to defend him. The reason I think she'd quit first is because she looks so defeated. My lunch break at work coincides with the press briefings so I get to see a lot of them, and she looks like she's losing faith. The SNL aspect is interesting, but I think she's a harder target to mock than some of the other WH staffers that they've eviscerated.   

[A Horse Named Stranger]

2 hours ago, Kalbear said:

The main reason is that of the 34 seats that are going to be on the block, only 10 I believe are Republican-held, and all of those are pretty well in R territory. Democrats have to defend a significantly larger amount. In this case gerrymandering doesn't matter - but state values do, and those are pretty decisively in favor of Republicans in 2018. 

I was aware that senate seats are state races, that's why I asked, how the House Republicans can feel that their majority is in any danger, with all the gerrymandering. But of course, if it's mainly deep red states and Democrat held seats that are up for reelection then it's a tall order.

[Kalbear]

7 minutes ago, Notone said:

I was aware that senate seats are state races, that's why I asked, how the House Republicans can feel that their majority is in any danger, with all the gerrymandering. But of course, if it's mainly deep red states and Democrat held seats that are up for reelection then it's a tall order.

As to why the House feels a bit bad - because it's a midterm, the opposition party usually comes and votes more during midterms, and the gerrymandering was built to withstand about a 10-15 point swing and still retain majority - and right now, the base congressional race is about +10 for Democrats and is getting better for Democrats. 

I still don't buy that this will happen, mind you, but there are a lot of people who can see a narrow Democratic majority victory, and the median prediction is like a gain of 20 seats for dems. 

[denstorebog]

Christ, did anyone see the last video message from the San Juan mayor? "If anybody out there is listening to us, we are dying, and you are killing us with the inefficiency."

This is borderline out of some sci-fi horror movie shit. "If anybody out there is listening." Fitting, since the Trump administration is managing  to distort information out of Puerto Rico as if it was separated from the rest of the world by light years, not just a bigly ocean of water.

Seriously, if Trump manages to come out on top of this, succesfully portraying himself as an efficient commander-in-chief, the media bubble is truly and veriafiably air tight.

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

^^^^

Yeah, his reactions so far have been really bizarre. Like he keeps bringing up their debt. Hey, howsabout we feed these people, get them the medicine they need, get the power back on, then we can talk finances.   

[Manhole Eunuchsbane]

 

/We didn't light it, but we're trying to fight it

[Dr. Pepper]

1 hour ago, Sword of Doom said:

http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/28/politics/facebook-anti-administration-activists/index.html

Totally not a problem. Totally not what fascists do.

I'm seeing on the internets some conservatives claiming that all admins do this sort of thing and it's perfectly normal and I'm just like wuh?  Like, they believe it so much that I'm starting to think I'm the crazy one.  Like maybe it's true.  

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

CALLED IT! 

(Well sort, resign is basically the same as being fired)

*rounds the bases slow as f* 

Have their ever been so many firings/resignations in the first year?

[maarsen]

26 minutes ago, Dr. Pepper said:

I'm seeing on the internets some conservatives claiming that all admins do this sort of thing and it's perfectly normal and I'm just like wuh?  Like, they believe it so much that I'm starting to think I'm the crazy one.  Like maybe it's true.  

Have their ever been so many firings/resignations in the first year?

Actually, Nixon had his enemies list. Back then I would have given anything to be on it. I was much too young then being in high school. For those that were listed it was a badge of honour. 

[Martell Spy]

 

Huh, the blue state Republicans don't want to pay for the tax reform party. I guess they believe that there should be honor among thieves. This seems a lot like the border adjustment tax fiasco. I really hope the Republicans don't come rummage through my couch for loose change, having failed to take it from sick people and New York Republicans.

There’s Always Infrastructure
The Republican tax plan is already in trouble.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2017/09/the_republican_tax_plan_is_already_in_trouble.html

The numbers are in: Trump's tax plan is a bonanza for the rich, not the middle class
Multi-millionaires get more than $700,000 back. The poorest fifth gets $60.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/9/29/16384274/big-six-tax-reform-congress-trump-tax-policy-center

Bad Job
Why corporate America is so much more awful than it used to be.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/interrogation/2017/09/why_companies_and_ceos_treat_their_workers_like_garbage.html