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Tygett Lannister

What will happen in Vale [TWOW spoliers]

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1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Several hundred?  A few dozen, maybe.  The Eyrie had a skeleton crew, so he's not getting a whole lot from there.  Nestor is happy to give political cover, but I don't know how far he is willing to put his neck out against his neighbors.  I think hostages would be a last gasp by Littlefinger, certainly not something he would do unless his back was to the wall.  Sansa's response would be interesting, to say the least.  

The idea isn't to openly declare them hostages, like with Theon being called a ward, it is just that everyone knows they are there.  Nestor already supported LF once when the lords declarant surrounded the gates of the moon.  All he would have to do is the exact same thing, simply man the walls and not open the gates.  Accept now instead of only having Robert Aryn, LF would have the children of everyone outside the gate, anyone storms the castle and their child dies.  It is the entire basis of having wards, Rickard Stark showed trust in Jon Aryn, and he gave Jon Aryn basically a promise by saying so long as you have my son I won't be attacking you.  

Any lord whose son is a winged knight will know that their son is in LF's possession.  The Eyrie had a skeleton crew when winter approached, but the others had simply already gone to the gates of the moon, where the larger garrison is.  All the men in that garrison would likely obey an order from LF, unless it was countered by an order from Nestor Royce.  In effect, those men are LF's too, and they number at least a few hundred as a strong castle would.

Take for example the idea that LF will manipulate the tournament so that Harry the Heir wins.(I personally believe Sansa will orchestrate a block on this using Lothor Brunes desire for Mya).  But lets say LF's plan works and Harry the Heir becomes a winged knight.  Royce and Waynwood are both partial to the boy having spent time raising him, they would not want to see him harmed.  Or Michael Redfort, same thing with his parents.  It is just 1 more piece of leverage for LF, he doesn't have to ever bring it up, but if people were thinking about taking him down, they would have to take the winged knights into consideration.

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14 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

I don't see LF getting angry at Sansa.

Not even if her tourney idea results in Harry's death? He seems to have a lot riding on Harry and every person has their breaking point. He probably would not shout or scream at her, but I could see him talking down to her like she's stupid and Sansa picking up on it. I mean at some point she might suspect that like Harry, she is just a pawn he's using, right? Or is she just team LF 100% no matter what?

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11 hours ago, Ralphis Baratheon said:

Not even if her tourney idea results in Harry's death? He seems to have a lot riding on Harry and every person has their breaking point. He probably would not shout or scream at her, but I could see him talking down to her like she's stupid and Sansa picking up on it. I mean at some point she might suspect that like Harry, she is just a pawn he's using, right? Or is she just team LF 100% no matter what?

You think LF is so stupid he wouldn't realize it wasn't Sansa's fault?

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11 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The idea isn't to openly declare them hostages, like with Theon being called a ward, it is just that everyone knows they are there.  Nestor already supported LF once when the lords declarant surrounded the gates of the moon.  All he would have to do is the exact same thing, simply man the walls and not open the gates.  Accept now instead of only having Robert Aryn, LF would have the children of everyone outside the gate, anyone storms the castle and their child dies.  It is the entire basis of having wards, Rickard Stark showed trust in Jon Aryn, and he gave Jon Aryn basically a promise by saying so long as you have my son I won't be attacking you.  

Any lord whose son is a winged knight will know that their son is in LF's possession.  The Eyrie had a skeleton crew when winter approached, but the others had simply already gone to the gates of the moon, where the larger garrison is.  All the men in that garrison would likely obey an order from LF, unless it was countered by an order from Nestor Royce.  In effect, those men are LF's too, and they number at least a few hundred as a strong castle would.

Take for example the idea that LF will manipulate the tournament so that Harry the Heir wins.(I personally believe Sansa will orchestrate a block on this using Lothor Brunes desire for Mya).  But lets say LF's plan works and Harry the Heir becomes a winged knight.  Royce and Waynwood are both partial to the boy having spent time raising him, they would not want to see him harmed.  Or Michael Redfort, same thing with his parents.  It is just 1 more piece of leverage for LF, he doesn't have to ever bring it up, but if people were thinking about taking him down, they would have to take the winged knights into consideration.

Yes this ofc he won't tell them you are hostages, but like family members will know I better not rebel against LF he has my son.

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This really turned into an exciting discussion.  I'm not sure the whole Winged Knights thing is a plot to take hostages.   Although I'm sure Frickin Little Finger has more than 1 motive in holding the tournament and awarding Winged Knights titles.  Sansa feels alive or pleased with the sounds of steel and training in the yard.   This bit shows us that Sansa has the education and skill to pull a big event off.   Something a queen should absolutely be able to do.   She hopes to herself that Harry will like her just a little bit.   LF encourages her to flirt, to touch him and to become elusive.   Little Finger wants HtH to fall for Alyane.   What I took away from the exchange is the hooking of Harry, not for Sansa to fall for him.  Sure it could be a block move against HtH marrying Miranda or another lady, but we all know LF has multiple reasons for everything he does.   I recall something about Sansa's red hair to become apparent in the lighting at dinner.  That tells me Sansa is about to be outed.  Will Royce confront her with her identity?  Is Sansa the key to ousting Little Finger? 

Sweet Robert is still a brat, but he's an observant brat with his own ideas about things.   If he became aware of Harry's duplicity or false allegiance without being told outright it is possible that he may be aware of Sansa's identity.   I hope she doesn't get saddled with him.   But I also hope he becomes more assertive and mature, taking control of his life for a change.  Truth is, Sansa is married and therefore unable to marry anyone.   Sansa as Sansa could be a big fat problem for Little Finger. 

We should see a surprise contestant in the melee.  That person should also be aware of Sansa's true identity.  All this leaves me wondering why no one seems to know who Mya Stone really is.  

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10 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

This really turned into an exciting discussion.  I'm not sure the whole Winged Knights thing is a plot to take hostages.   Although I'm sure Frickin Little Finger has more than 1 motive in holding the tournament and awarding Winged Knights titles.  Sansa feels alive or pleased with the sounds of steel and training in the yard.   This bit shows us that Sansa has the education and skill to pull a big event off.   Something a queen should absolutely be able to do.   She hopes to herself that Harry will like her just a little bit.   LF encourages her to flirt, to touch him and to become elusive.   Little Finger wants HtH to fall for Alyane.   What I took away from the exchange is the hooking of Harry, not for Sansa to fall for him.  Sure it could be a block move against HtH marrying Miranda or another lady, but we all know LF has multiple reasons for everything he does.   I recall something about Sansa's red hair to become apparent in the lighting at dinner.  That tells me Sansa is about to be outed.  Will Royce confront her with her identity?  Is Sansa the key to ousting Little Finger? 

Sweet Robert is still a brat, but he's an observant brat with his own ideas about things.   If he became aware of Harry's duplicity or false allegiance without being told outright it is possible that he may be aware of Sansa's identity.   I hope she doesn't get saddled with him.   But I also hope he becomes more assertive and mature, taking control of his life for a change.  Truth is, Sansa is married and therefore unable to marry anyone.   Sansa as Sansa could be a big fat problem for Little Finger. 

We should see a surprise contestant in the melee.  That person should also be aware of Sansa's true identity.  All this leaves me wondering why no one seems to know who Mya Stone really is.  

I don't Miranda Royce is a suitable for Harrold though I can see marriage happening in this scenario:

Sweet Robin dies, Nestor Royce betrays Littlefinger and has hold of Harrold (Harrold would have to stay at Gates of the Moon after tournament - him becoming Winged Knight) and then Nestor offers Harrold title of Lord Paramount of Vale in exchange for marrying Miranda. But even than if Harrold doesn't accepts his offer since he doesn't really have to, since who else can has any claim to Vale. I don't see how Nestor would benefit from chaos and civil war in Vale. And only person who has any claim to the Vale is daughter that was kidnapped by Burned men or her potential son.

Even though Nestor Royce seems to hold all the power once the tournament is over I don't think it is that simple for him to arrest Littlefinger and take regency and marry Miranda and Harrold. I don't think LF bought off whole debts of Vale lords but he is rather paying it in smaller parts. So if Nestor Royce does imprison Littlefinger all lord that Littlefinger is helping pay their loans will come knocking at his door saying: "Release legal Lord Protector of the Vale. He is supported by the King Tommen's decree and Lords declerant. You just want regency for yourself and have hold of Harrold." 

It should not be in interest of Vale Lords to have a Royce as a Lord Protector. That would mean Royce family would hold Runestone, Gates of the Moon, Eyrie, regency over Vale, Sweetrobin (this means they can choose where he shall be fostered, who he shall marry ...) and heir Harrold (who he shall marry ...). This would make them the most powerful house in Westeros. Other Vale Lords do not want such a strong liege lord. They are better of with a man that physically holds no land and helps them pay their debts and has no army or respect. Historically for example dukes of Holy Roman Empire elected Rudolf von Habsburg an an Emperor because he had little land and soldiers was very insignificant, though we all know how that ended (with half of the European nobility having Habsburg chin).

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42 minutes ago, Curled Finger said:

This really turned into an exciting discussion.  I'm not sure the whole Winged Knights thing is a plot to take hostages.   Although I'm sure Frickin Little Finger has more than 1 motive in holding the tournament and awarding Winged Knights titles.  Sansa feels alive or pleased with the sounds of steel and training in the yard.   This bit shows us that Sansa has the education and skill to pull a big event off.   Something a queen should absolutely be able to do.   She hopes to herself that Harry will like her just a little bit.   LF encourages her to flirt, to touch him and to become elusive.   Little Finger wants HtH to fall for Alyane.   What I took away from the exchange is the hooking of Harry, not for Sansa to fall for him.  Sure it could be a block move against HtH marrying Miranda or another lady, but we all know LF has multiple reasons for everything he does.   I recall something about Sansa's red hair to become apparent in the lighting at dinner.  That tells me Sansa is about to be outed.  Will Royce confront her with her identity?  Is Sansa the key to ousting Little Finger? 

Sweet Robert is still a brat, but he's an observant brat with his own ideas about things.   If he became aware of Harry's duplicity or false allegiance without being told outright it is possible that he may be aware of Sansa's identity.   I hope she doesn't get saddled with him.   But I also hope he becomes more assertive and mature, taking control of his life for a change.  Truth is, Sansa is married and therefore unable to marry anyone.   Sansa as Sansa could be a big fat problem for Little Finger. 

We should see a surprise contestant in the melee.  That person should also be aware of Sansa's true identity.  All this leaves me wondering why no one seems to know who Mya Stone really is.  

I suspect that most lords of the Vale do know, it's just that an unacknowledged bastard born of a lownborn mother has no claim whatsoever, along with no dowry/land/titles and would certainly have upset the Lannisters.  So more trouble than it's worth.

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54 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

I don't Miranda Royce is a suitable for Harrold though I can see marriage happening in this scenario:

Sweet Robin dies, Nestor Royce betrays Littlefinger and has hold of Harrold (Harrold would have to stay at Gates of the Moon after tournament - him becoming Winged Knight) and then Nestor offers Harrold title of Lord Paramount of Vale in exchange for marrying Miranda. But even than if Harrold doesn't accepts his offer since he doesn't really have to, since who else can has any claim to Vale. I don't see how Nestor would benefit from chaos and civil war in Vale. And only person who has any claim to the Vale is daughter that was kidnapped by Burned men or her potential son.

Even though Nestor Royce seems to hold all the power once the tournament is over I don't think it is that simple for him to arrest Littlefinger and take regency and marry Miranda and Harrold. I don't think LF bought off whole debts of Vale lords but he is rather paying it in smaller parts. So if Nestor Royce does imprison Littlefinger all lord that Littlefinger is helping pay their loans will come knocking at his door saying: "Release legal Lord Protector of the Vale. He is supported by the King Tommen's decree and Lords declerant. You just want regency for yourself and have hold of Harrold." 

It should not be in interest of Vale Lords to have a Royce as a Lord Protector. That would mean Royce family would hold Runestone, Gates of the Moon, Eyrie, regency over Vale, Sweetrobin (this means they can choose where he shall be fostered, who he shall marry ...) and heir Harrold (who he shall marry ...). This would make them the most powerful house in Westeros. Other Vale Lords do not want such a strong liege lord. They are better of with a man that physically holds no land and helps them pay their debts and has no army or respect. Historically for example dukes of Holy Roman Empire elected Rudolf von Habsburg an an Emperor because he had little land and soldiers was very insignificant, though we all know how that ended (with half of the European nobility having Habsburg chin).

Ah yes!  The clansmen I completely forgot.   As I read your response I thought it would be very interesting to see the clansmen show up at the melee and terrorize all the lords.  They've got good steel and armor.   They could pull this off--at least showing up for the melee.   I don't buy anyone locking Little Finger up.   He's too smart and slippery for that, but it would be satisfying to see his reputation as a ruler completely besmirched.   Yah, let's get him to Harenhall already!   

I do wonder what the clansmen really learned from Tyrion and if they could spirit Sansa, Sweet Robert or even Harry away.   What a delightful twist, Man! 

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55 minutes ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

I suspect that most lords of the Vale do know, it's just that an unacknowledged bastard born of a lownborn mother has no claim whatsoever, along with no dowry/land/titles and would certainly have upset the Lannisters.  So more trouble than it's worth.

Hiya Pup, good to see you.   Is it me or is the entire Vale/Little Finger thing just particularly complicated?   I understand Sansa even as herself has no claim on anything in the Vale.   Sweet Robert is her cousin.  Since the woman the clansmen made off with is off the table until we see her, who would get the Vale if Sweet Robert and Harry the Heir both met an untimely demise?   

Frickin Little Finger seems to thrive on chaos.  I wonder what chaos he is really planning for the Vale?   You bring up a great point with the Lannisters.   Little Finger is still considered an ally.  Would he really upset his relationship with the crown for a lousy mountain settlement?  Would he really show his hand in publicly?  Is Sansa a way to sever the ties and get the Vale their taste of war?   Your post has me thinking someone else will definitely be outing Sansa.   I'm still watching the melee!    

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1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Ah yes!  The clansmen I completely forgot.   As I read your response I thought it would be very interesting to see the clansmen show up at the melee and terrorize all the lords.  They've got good steel and armor.   They could pull this off--at least showing up for the melee.   I don't buy anyone locking Little Finger up.   He's too smart and slippery for that, but it would be satisfying to see his reputation as a ruler completely besmirched.   Yah, let's get him to Harenhall already!   

I do wonder what the clansmen really learned from Tyrion and if they could spirit Sansa, Sweet Robert or even Harry away.   What a delightful twist, Man! 

As far as I am concerned lords have a big army with them and that clansmen have bad weapons (that is why Lannisters give them "good steel"). Though I am not excluding a possibility of clansmen "ambushing" tournament. And problem is all clansmen that joined Tyrion are dead or in in Crownlands area so I don't know how would they influence other clansmen (maybe some could return home).

I hope he stays in Vale because Riverlands are completely expended and will only get worse due to winter.

1 hour ago, Curled Finger said:

Hiya Pup, good to see you.   Is it me or is the entire Vale/Little Finger thing just particularly complicated?   I understand Sansa even as herself has no claim on anything in the Vale.   Sweet Robert is her cousin.  Since the woman the clansmen made off with is off the table until we see her, who would get the Vale if Sweet Robert and Harry the Heir both met an untimely demise?   

Frickin Little Finger seems to thrive on chaos.  I wonder what chaos he is really planning for the Vale?   You bring up a great point with the Lannisters.   Little Finger is still considered an ally.  Would he really upset his relationship with the crown for a lousy mountain settlement?  Would he really show his hand in publicly?  Is Sansa a way to sever the ties and get the Vale their taste of war?   Your post has me thinking someone else will definitely be outing Sansa.   I'm still watching the melee!    

Sansa has hardly claim to Vale (only connection way is through being Lysa's heir) but she has claim to Riverlands and North of course. As for Vale strongest claim is probably Alys Stone (Harrold's daughter) and the other Harrold's child. This might result in civil war where two parties would support each child (one is not born and other is 2 years old so that means long regencies for the winner).

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24 minutes ago, Tygett Lannister said:

As far as I am concerned lords have a big army with them and that clansmen have bad weapons (that is why Lannisters give them "good steel"). Though I am not excluding a possibility of clansmen "ambushing" tournament. And problem is all clansmen that joined Tyrion are dead or in in Crownlands area so I don't know how would they influence other clansmen (maybe some could return home).

I hope he stays in Vale because Riverlands are completely expended and will only get worse due to winter.

Sansa has hardly claim to Vale (only connection way is through being Lysa's heir) but she has claim to Riverlands and North of course. As for Vale strongest claim is probably Alys Stone (Harrold's daughter) and the other Harrold's child. This might result in civil war where two parties would support each child (one is not born and other is 2 years old so that means long regencies for the winner).

My memory is not what it should be.   I remembered the Mountain Clansmen returning to the Vale.  Either way, maybe that's where the hostages come in--the Clansmen take them!   (More fun yet!)  I thought Little Finger's year (negotiated with the LD) was just about up.  I do hope they throw him out or better yet he has to slither away to a safe place.   Although, if Sansa goes public, Harrenhall wouldn't be the place to hide.   

I don't really understand how inheritance works.   Seems to be more a matter of who's the most powerful--like the Royce cousins didn't get Winterfell, Roose did.   I didn't mean to imply that Sansa would get the Vale.   Still, it seems to me that as a blood relative of Sweet Robert's she would get more support than Harry Hardying's bastards?  It doesn't matter, I don't see how Sansa has a claim on anything in the Vale, Riverlands or North (since Robb specifically excluded her from inheriting??).   

I'm spinning wheels trying to determine what 8 Winged Knights would be good for if not hostages...

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The food storyline seems to be just to justify why there will be this mass of food available there for when Sansa needs it later in the story.

What will happen is Harry will die, probably murdered in the tourney by Lyn, and Yohn will think LF had Harry killed because he didn't take to Sansa. Consequently Yohn will move against LF and civil war will erupt, he will come to get SR by force and thus seize control of the Vale, and the LF/Nestor side who has SR (and Sansa with them) will be forced, very bloodily, to retreat backwards until eventually their only option is back up the Eyrie. Yohn down the bottom with all the swords, Nestor and/or LF up top with SR and Sansa.

And that stand off will be the current situation when Tyrion arrives in the Vale on Viserion.

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21 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

The idea isn't to openly declare them hostages, like with Theon being called a ward, it is just that everyone knows they are there.  Nestor already supported LF once when the lords declarant surrounded the gates of the moon.  All he would have to do is the exact same thing, simply man the walls and not open the gates.  Accept now instead of only having Robert Aryn, LF would have the children of everyone outside the gate, anyone storms the castle and their child dies.  It is the entire basis of having wards, Rickard Stark showed trust in Jon Aryn, and he gave Jon Aryn basically a promise by saying so long as you have my son I won't be attacking you.  

Any lord whose son is a winged knight will know that their son is in LF's possession.  The Eyrie had a skeleton crew when winter approached, but the others had simply already gone to the gates of the moon, where the larger garrison is.  All the men in that garrison would likely obey an order from LF, unless it was countered by an order from Nestor Royce.  In effect, those men are LF's too, and they number at least a few hundred as a strong castle would.

Take for example the idea that LF will manipulate the tournament so that Harry the Heir wins.(I personally believe Sansa will orchestrate a block on this using Lothor Brunes desire for Mya).  But lets say LF's plan works and Harry the Heir becomes a winged knight.  Royce and Waynwood are both partial to the boy having spent time raising him, they would not want to see him harmed.  Or Michael Redfort, same thing with his parents.  It is just 1 more piece of leverage for LF, he doesn't have to ever bring it up, but if people were thinking about taking him down, they would have to take the winged knights into consideration.

I seriously doubt Jon Arryn was worried about Rickard Stark attacking him.  I think his fosterage of Ned was so Ned could see life beyond the North and meet new and interesting people; expand his horizons, essentially.  As for Theon, he was a hostage, and not only did everyone know, his family had agreed to it.

One problem with having the family members of opponents as winged knights is you put a bunch of potential spies in your household; possibly even a whole fifth column, if they band together.  That could be an ever greater detriment to Littlefinger than their potential value as hostages.  There is also the distinct possibility that they could influence Robert against LF.

If LF is going to arrange things (and I don't know how difficult that would be, especially in later rounds), I would expect him to choose mostly men he can trust, whose families back him.  This could further cement his relationship with them, and give Robert mentors who would be favorably inclined toward LF.  He might also choose those who would be unable to prevent, or are willing to allow, harm coming to Robert when the time came.

I can easily imagine LF arranging a murder in the early rounds, or putting up someone he regards as a potential threat against a strong opponent.  I'm not sure what his overall game plan is here, but I'm sure he has one.

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13 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

You think LF is so stupid he wouldn't realize it wasn't Sansa's fault?

Doesn't mean he wouldn't place some of the blame on her. Again, he seems to have a lot invested in Harry.

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As to the idea that the clansmen may show up, or even enter the melee: Does Timmett, son of Timmett, know his own lineage?

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17 hours ago, Tygett Lannister said:

As far as I am concerned lords have a big army with them and that clansmen have bad weapons (that is why Lannisters give them "good steel"). Though I am not excluding a possibility of clansmen "ambushing" tournament. And problem is all clansmen that joined Tyrion are dead or in in Crownlands area so I don't know how would they influence other clansmen (maybe some could return home).

I hope he stays in Vale because Riverlands are completely expended and will only get worse due to winter.

Sansa has hardly claim to Vale (only connection way is through being Lysa's heir) but she has claim to Riverlands and North of course. As for Vale strongest claim is probably Alys Stone (Harrold's daughter) and the other Harrold's child. This might result in civil war where two parties would support each child (one is not born and other is 2 years old so that means long regencies for the winner).

 

18 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Hiya Pup, good to see you.   Is it me or is the entire Vale/Little Finger thing just particularly complicated?   I understand Sansa even as herself has no claim on anything in the Vale.   Sweet Robert is her cousin.  Since the woman the clansmen made off with is off the table until we see her, who would get the Vale if Sweet Robert and Harry the Heir both met an untimely demise?   

Frickin Little Finger seems to thrive on chaos.  I wonder what chaos he is really planning for the Vale?   You bring up a great point with the Lannisters.   Little Finger is still considered an ally.  Would he really upset his relationship with the crown for a lousy mountain settlement?  Would he really show his hand in publicly?  Is Sansa a way to sever the ties and get the Vale their taste of war?   Your post has me thinking someone else will definitely be outing Sansa.   I'm still watching the melee!    

Timmet, son of Timmet of the Burned Men, led his people back to the Vale, and they have been raiding very intensely now that they have real steal weapons. Timmet is also the interesting one, because he is the only who could theoretically be the true heir, and there is also the connection between the Burned men and Nettles.

Shaga, son of Dolf, took his men into the Kingswood.

IDK who would be the heir after Harry.  He has a kid sure, but now were talking a bastard daughter through a lowborn.  Surely as someone else pointed out the Gulltown Aryns would push a claim.  My guess is that is a civil war.  Which could even be what LF wants.

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21 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

The food storyline seems to be just to justify why there will be this mass of food available there for when Sansa needs it later in the story.

What will happen is Harry will die, probably murdered in the tourney by Lyn, and Yohn will think LF had Harry killed because he didn't take to Sansa. Consequently Yohn will move against LF and civil war will erupt, he will come to get SR by force and thus seize control of the Vale, and the LF/Nestor side who has SR (and Sansa with them) will be forced, very bloodily, to retreat backwards until eventually their only option is back up the Eyrie. Yohn down the bottom with all the swords, Nestor and/or LF up top with SR and Sansa.

And that stand off will be the current situation when Tyrion arrives in the Vale on Viserion.

Royce vs Royce, unlikely.

 

21 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

My memory is not what it should be.   I remembered the Mountain Clansmen returning to the Vale.  Either way, maybe that's where the hostages come in--the Clansmen take them!   (More fun yet!)  I thought Little Finger's year (negotiated with the LD) was just about up.  I do hope they throw him out or better yet he has to slither away to a safe place.   Although, if Sansa goes public, Harrenhall wouldn't be the place to hide.  

Yes I checked some Clansmen returned and it is reported clansmen somehow got steel. And I feel like his year barely started, remember entire story is now lasting for some 3 years right?

21 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I don't really understand how inheritance works.   Seems to be more a matter of who's the most powerful--like the Royce cousins didn't get Winterfell, Roose did.   I didn't mean to imply that Sansa would get the Vale.   Still, it seems to me that as a blood relative of Sweet Robert's she would get more support than Harry Hardying's bastards?  It doesn't matter, I don't see how Sansa has a claim on anything in the Vale, Riverlands or North (since Robb specifically excluded her from inheriting??).   

I'm spinning wheels trying to determine what 8 Winged Knights would be good for if not hostages...

I don't know why Royces would ever have claim to Winterfell I guess you must have made a blunder there. Roose didn't get North through inheritance. Roose Bolton got North as reward for his "loyalty" to the crown after it was revoked from Starks by King Joffrey. She is Sweet Robins blood relative but usually inheritance goes down the family tree not up or horizontal (not sure if you know what I mean). Harry is without doubt heir of Sweet Robin and it makes all the sense his bastards would be next in line unless that lost daughter shows up with a son. Bastards could inherit when there would be no other options. Especially since you would get people fighting for influence over them because bastard claim is still weaker and they need more support. Well most of the lords wouldn't care if Robb disinherited her because only reason was her being hostage.

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4 hours ago, aryagonnakill#2 said:

Timmet, son of Timmet of the Burned Men, led his people back to the Vale, and they have been raiding very intensely now that they have real steal weapons. Timmet is also the interesting one, because he is the only who could theoretically be the true heir, and there is also the connection between the Burned men and Nettles.

Shaga, son of Dolf, took his men into the Kingswood.

IDK who would be the heir after Harry.  He has a kid sure, but now were talking a bastard daughter through a lowborn.  Surely as someone else pointed out the Gulltown Aryns would push a claim.  My guess is that is a civil war.  Which could even be what LF wants.

Yes you are right I wasn't sure before. But I find it unlikely Clansmen would be accepted as rulers since they are kind alike Wildlings to North.

Don't really think LF wants chaos and civil war in Vale.

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There is no way in hell that Littlefinger told Alayne/Sansa his true gameplan with these Vale lords, he never disclosed his true motives and ambitions to anyone, I doubt that he started now. His plan to marry Alayne to Harry the Heir is not his true plan at all. I think he is grooming Alayne to play the game of thrones as best as she can, but he also wants her to be dependent on him, that is his lusty, Tully fetish side - as in being Sansa's pimp for life.

He has titles now (Lord of Harrenhal, Lord Paramount of the Trident, and Lord Protector of the Vale), he has money, and the only thing he misses to have a true power in Westeros is an army. He is also very greedy and not content, he wants everything there is, and I believe his ultimate goal is to rule Westeros behind the scenes (because he is smart enough to understand he will never sit that iron chair, and it is better to stay in shadows and pull the strings of the puppets).

With all that in mind, and the fact that he is ordering Robert Arryn's poisoning, I believe Harry the Heir is an obstacle for him to gain full control of Vale banners in the immediate future. Harry is a full grown knight and man, and if he becomes Lord of the Eyrie, Littlefinger loses the game because he will have no influence over this man, and he potentially loses Sansa as his pawn because she also will not need him anymore and be independent with Lord of the Eyrie as her husband. 

I also agree that Winged Knights idea is to have hostages by the end of this tournament to solidify Littlefinger's power over some of these Vale lords. Littlefinger knows that Westeros is in chaos right now (some of which he created), and the opportunity to take advantage is now. He needs a considerable army to further his ambitions, and he needs it very soon.

What I think LF plans is to include Harry the Heir into Winged Knights so he takes control of the man away from the Waynwoods, also take on several others into the order as unofficial hostages to ensure Vale lords behave (Mychel Redfort, maybe even Lyn Corbray to better control the man as I doubt Littlefinger completely trusts the man, etc.), also manipulate Sansa into making Harry fall in love with her and marry her which is crucial because everyone in the Vale needs to know of this publicly, then dispose of Harry by "an accident" as soon as Sansa is pregnant, then get rid of Robert Arryn not long after and command the Vale through Sansa's kid (who might be his own).

Ultimately, I do believe Littlefinger's original plan will go to hell once something bad happens to Harry the Heir (he might have fathered some of his bastards by forcing himself onto the ladies, therefore, when Sansa plays too hard to get, he will try to rape her or something, I just think Harry is not "a knight in shining armor" type at all), where LF will have to adjust his plans and cancel his orders on poisoning Robert Arryn. Not to mention that I believe Sansa will nurture the little boy to good health, so she will have more and more influence on him. 

Yeah, the Vale storyline promises to be very good, and I can't wait.

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