NFL 2018 Draft: On The One Hand...

[Maithanet]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

I completely agree. If the Giants don’t trade out and don’t take a QB, they’re complete idiots. That’s why the Colts move was so great. They were never going to take a QB, and clearly were going to take Nelson, Chubb, Barkley or one of the top DBs. They will now likely still have their pick of the bunce plus three second round picks. If they play this right, that means they just acquired four starters who should be impact players.

Particularly because the rumor mill is that this is a weak draft for top end talent and that there's only 16 or so guys with real first round grades.  But that this is a strong draft for day 2 talent, and that a lot of those guys are still going to be starters. Picking up second round picks is always a good idea, and that might be particularly the case this year. 

Also, it's a good thing for Houston that Deshaun Watson looked so good, because otherwise their management would be getting an earful for trading the #25 pick in 2017 and the #4 pick in 2018 for the #12 pick in 2017. 

[Bronn Stone]

If what we are seeing is true and the Browns are choosing between Allen and Mayfield (and have them close) it makes ZERO sense for them to pick either #1 overall.

99.9% chance one of those guys is there at #4 and you get your pick of the lot at #1.  As I've suggested before, I think Barkley is a LaDainian-type talent who can give you a decade of top RB play.

Another path they may be considering is trading #4 to get even more picks after having taken a QB at #1.  Again, if so, bad plan.  Trade #1 and get a bigger payout and still get one of your top 2 at #4.

[briantw]

2 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I wouldn’t say zero chance, but it’s less likely than it was a month ago. Word is that they are now debating between Allen and Baker. After watching Rosen say Baker and Darnold suck, I’d want him even more.

I would absolutely say zero chance.  They're taking a QB at one.  I'm also damn near certain it won't be Allen, as everything I've heard is that it'll be between Darnold, Mayfield, and possibly Rosen.  I think the Allen stuff is just a smokescreen, or more likely his agent is just paying people to hype his client up so he goes higher than he should.  Allen shouldn't even be going in the first round, let alone first overall.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

26 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Particularly because the rumor mill is that this is a weak draft for top end talent and that there's only 16 or so guys with real first round grades.  But that this is a strong draft for day 2 talent, and that a lot of those guys are still going to be starters. Picking up second round picks is always a good idea, and that might be particularly the case this year. 

Also, it's a good thing for Houston that Deshaun Watson looked so good, because otherwise their management would be getting an earful for trading the #25 pick in 2017 and the #4 pick in 2018 for the #12 pick in 2017. 

Agreed. Rumor in town is the Vikings want to trade back to get more day two picks. I’ve heard this draft is deep at a lot of positions, but oddly not WRs. I listened to a podcast the other day and they were breaking down how the spread offense, combined with the lack of decision making required from college players, is ruining QBs and WRs. They may have a point, specifically with the latter.

This also reminds me of a study I read a while back, I think from 538, which basically argued that you should always trade your first round pick if you don’t have a top pick and/or there isn’t a player available that you’re drooling over. I can’t remember the details, but I believe their conclusion was that the best way to maximize draft value was to stockpile third and fourth round picks while keeping your second round pick.

[Maithanet]

7 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

If what we are seeing is true and the Browns are choosing between Allen and Mayfield (and have them close) it makes ZERO sense for them to pick either #1 overall.

99.9% chance one of those guys is there at #4 and you get your pick of the lot at #1. 

?? How does that follow?  The rumor mill is that the Jets want Mayfield, so there's every reason to think he'll get gone at #3.  If you take Barkley at #1, then the Giants could easily trade back for a team that wants a quarterback.  Yeah, it's possible that team will take Darnold, but nowhere near certain.  If the Browns staff is confident that Mayfield and Allen are the #1 and #1A talents at quarterback, why would you assume that other teams are incompetent? 

You're overthinking this.  Taking Barkley #1 on the assumption that your quarterback will still be available at #4 is silly.  If they really want Barkley, trade with the Giants to go from #4 to #2, it wouldn't cost much.  Personally, I will be surprised if Barkley is taken in the first 3 picks.  It's possible, but I doubt it.  I think the Browns and Jets take a quarterback, the Giants either take Chubb or trade down with a team that also wants a qb. 

[Maithanet]

9 minutes ago, briantw said:

I would absolutely say zero chance.  They're taking a QB at one.  I'm also damn near certain it won't be Allen, as everything I've heard is that it'll be between Darnold, Mayfield, and possibly Rosen.  I think the Allen stuff is just a smokescreen, or more likely his agent is just paying people to hype his client up so he goes higher than he should.  Allen shouldn't even be going in the first round, let alone first overall.

I don't think Rosen is in the running.  I've heard contradictory rumors about both Darnold and Mayfield, so who knows.  But I agree with you it's hard to imagine anyone taking Allen #1 overall.  He has so many flaws. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

19 minutes ago, Bronn Stone said:

If what we are seeing is true and the Browns are choosing between Allen and Mayfield (and have them close) it makes ZERO sense for them to pick either #1 overall.

99.9% chance one of those guys is there at #4 and you get your pick of the lot at #1.  As I've suggested before, I think Barkley is a LaDainian-type talent who can give you a decade of top RB play.

Another path they may be considering is trading #4 to get even more picks after having taken a QB at #1.  Again, if so, bad plan.  Trade #1 and get a bigger payout and still get one of your top 2 at #4.

The Browns have three second round picks, including the first and the third in that respective round.  I also believe they have a number of day two picks next year. At some point you have to stop acquiring picks. Furthermore, the Browns need to get their QB. 1-31 over two seasons is devastating if they don’t have something to show for it. I understand why it would be tempting to trade one of the picks, but it would be a mistake. They must take a QB first overall and then either grab Nelson, Chubb or Barkley with the fourth pick.

[briantw]

2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

I don't think Rosen is in the running.  I've heard contradictory rumors about both Darnold and Mayfield, so who knows.  But I agree with you it's hard to imagine anyone taking Allen #1 overall.  He has so many flaws. 

The fact that we've heard absolutely nothing about Rosen in the running makes me think he absolutely is.  We've heard about every other QB but not Rosen, and that seems really fucking weird to me considering that he's clearly the most pro-ready prospect in this draft.  Unless his shoulder injury was flagged, which you'd think we'd have heard about by now, methinks there's a smoke screen at work.

[Rhom]

58 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Must read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/25/sports/nfl-owners-kaepernick.html

Leadership by focus group.

[Maithanet]

Just now, briantw said:

The fact that we've heard absolutely nothing about Rosen in the running makes me think he absolutely is.  We've heard about every other QB but not Rosen, and that seems really fucking weird to me considering that he's clearly the most pro-ready prospect in this draft.  Unless his shoulder injury was flagged, which you'd think we'd have heard about by now, methinks there's a smoke screen at work.

Smokescreens only take you so far.  Teams can say they're between two guys when they really know, or they're increasingly interested in guy #3 lately, but they almost never talk up 2-3 quarterbacks for months and then go with mystery man #4 on draft night.  At the very least, that would require a level of discipline very rarely seen in the NFL. 

[Rhom]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

The Browns have three second round picks, including the first and the third in that respective round.  I also believe they have a number of day two picks next year. At some point you have to stop acquiring picks. Furthermore, the Browns need to get their QB. 1-31 over two seasons is devastating if they don’t have something to show for it. I understand why it would be tempting to trade one of the picks, but it would be a mistake. They must take a QB first overall and then either grab Nelson, Chubb or Barkley with the fourth pick.

I think you and I have said before that the Browns need to do something different.  Take the George Costanza approach.  Whatever you think is the right move... do the opposite.

Take Barkley at 1.  Take Chubb at 4.  Package those three second round picks and trade with Cincy for the 21st pick and take Lamar Jackson (I read today that Cincy is interested in taking Lamar as are Pittsburgh and New Orleans).  Its definitely not conventional wisdom, but conventional has gotten the Browns one playoff appearance since returning to the league.  (QB'd by Tim Couch just as a reminder.)

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

21 minutes ago, briantw said:

I would absolutely say zero chance.  They're taking a QB at one.  I'm also damn near certain it won't be Allen, as everything I've heard is that it'll be between Darnold, Mayfield, and possibly Rosen.  I think the Allen stuff is just a smokescreen, or more likely his agent is just paying people to hype his client up so he goes higher than he should.  Allen shouldn't even be going in the first round, let alone first overall.

I agree that Allen should not be a first rounder. What’s the difference between him and Kizer? And for the record, I really like Kizer, but you DO NOT take a project player that high. I don’t care what their upside is. You find projects on day two. See Hunter for the Vikings. Great measurables with bad college stats. They rebuilt him into a potential elite edge rusher. But you never take that dude in the first round.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

14 minutes ago, Rhom said:

I think you and I have said before that the Browns need to do something different.  Take the George Costanza approach.  Whatever you think is the right move... do the opposite.

Take Barkley at 1.  Take Chubb at 4.  Package those three second round picks and trade with Cincy for the 21st pick and take Lamar Jackson (I read today that Cincy is interested in taking Lamar as are Pittsburgh and New Orleans).  Its definitely not conventional wisdom, but conventional has gotten the Browns one playoff appearance since returning to the league.  (QB'd by Tim Couch just as a reminder.)

Well to be fair I’ve laid out several scenarios, but that was one of them. The only difference is I’d take Nelson at four. I don’t get Chubb to the Browns.

[briantw]

14 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I agree that Allen should not be a first rounder. What’s the difference between him and Kizer? And for the record, I really like Kizer, but you DO NOT take a project player that high. I don’t care what their upside is. You find projects on day two. See Hunter for the Vikings. Great measurables with bad college stats. They rebuilt him into a potential elite edge rusher. But you never take that dude in the first round.

Yeah, given that the Browns just traded away one project QB with horrible accuracy, it would seem incredibly foolish to draft another one, especially at number one overall.  And while I'm not yet sold on Dorsey, I don't think he's that dumb.

[Rhom]

36 minutes ago, briantw said:

Yeah, given that the Browns just traded away one project QB with horrible accuracy, it would seem incredibly foolish to draft another one, especially at number one overall.  And while I'm not yet sold on Dorsey, I don't think he's that dumb.

Which is exactly why I think they may do it.

[Jace, Extat]

That leaked audio is STUNNING!

I figured the owners would be much more belligerent.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, briantw said:

Yeah, given that the Browns just traded away one project QB with horrible accuracy, it would seem incredibly foolish to draft another one, especially at number one overall.  And while I'm not yet sold on Dorsey, I don't think he's that dumb.

The importance of intelligence is highly overrated in professional sports when it comes to the front office. Unless you have a Bill Belichick, or inversely, a Jim Tomsula, it’s really all the same. You hire scouts, cap experts and media relations folks and hope for the best. Literally everyone who posts here could do the job of GM. Well, everyone except Week.

[Week]

5 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Well, everyone except Week.

[Jace, Extat]

Never has my new signature been more appropriate.

Amid all these rumors of the Patriots and Lamarr Jackson I realize... I want him to go to NE.

Of course I do, don't look at me like that! I didn't ask to love the kid. But I want what's best for him. And what's best is that den of vipers in New England.

It sickens me to even imagine. And that's why I know it's right.

[Rhom]

4 minutes ago, Pony Empress Jace said:

Never has my new signature been more appropriate.

Amid all these rumors of the Patriots and Lamarr Jackson I realize... I want him to go to NE.

Of course I do, don't look at me like that! I didn't ask to love the kid. But I want what's best for him. And what's best is that den of vipers in New England.

It sickens me to even imagine. And that's why I know it's right.

Something that feels so right can't be wrong.  Just let it happen Jace.  Give in to your feelings.