Ashara, post Harrenhal possibilities

[Alexis-something-Rose]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

But I don't think it is a stretch at all to think that there was a face to face between Rhaegar and Brandon after Rhaegar's defeat of Brandon and before Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna, and that it wasn't a completely boring, uneventful face to face. I, for one, would love to know if such a thing occurred, and what was said and/or done during it.

There is another thing to add to this. Whatever was discussed could have easily fallen apart after the crown of roses, but that is until Lyanna fessed up to her brothers about entering the lists. There's a really good possibility that by the time the tourney came to a close, Brandon wasn't so angry with Rhaegar anymore. He would have been there to witness Aerys ordering that the mystery knight be found and he would have been to see what Rhaegar brought him instead. I think Ashara may have really entered Brandon's orbit between the tourney and Lyanna's supposed kidnapping.

About her hair color. Hair color really isn't the issue. Hair color can be changed, so unless there's colored contacts in Essos, then Lemore's eye color wouldn't be a notable one and purple is a color worthy of note. And if the author wanted to mask her eye color, he could have had her dying her hair a pale blond and put out the story that she was Lyseni. Varys is from Lys, Illyrio told us he found Serra in Lys.  

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Where do you get that from? As far as I can tell, Ashara's hair color is never described other than "dark," which could just as easily be brown as black. I don't think it is possible Tyrion just overlooked purple eyes.

Lemore being described as handsome is not a big deal at all in determining whether Lemore could be Ashara. It is 300 AC, not 281 AC. And beauty does not automatically work like that. 

Well, on her pictures the hair is usually very dark. It is not a color I'd describe as brown. But, sure, that's a contentious issue.

If Ashara was around twenty at Harrenhal, then she would be only a few years older than Cersei in 300 AC. And Cersei is still a stunning beauty, perhaps no longer as beautiful as she was at twenty, but still beautiful.

Lemore is never described as a great beauty, nor as a former great beauty (and one can see whether a person in middle or even old age was once beautiful or whether he or she was not - you see that in the facial features).

[Sly Wren]

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Flip the script and ask yourself why Tyrion doesn't mention Lemore's eye color? Is it because they are totally unremarkable? Your own evidence works against you.

Wait--why? I've been off the boards for a while (family crisis) so am likely to be slow of brain and thus fully missing your point--but I'm lost here. 

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Tyrion mentions eye color more than any other character? I haven't done the search, but I accept your premise.

On the bolded--proof that you are sane and that I am not.

7 hours ago, SFDanny said:

But surely, not all the eye coloring that he mentions is because the coloring is remarkable. One would then expect him then to comment on Lemore's eyes if they are unremarkable or knock-you-on-your-ass-buckle-your-knees exotic. Yet he doesn't mention them in this particular case.

Exactly--though there are some people he takes time to notice their eye color. IE:  takes a while before we learn that Shae's eyes are black--Tyrion takes his time mentioning it. But for women whose eyes are remarkable--he notes them right quick--Sweets, some of the girls at Chataya's, Chataya's eyes--they are all striking. And he tells us the color right out.

All that said--none of this undermines your overall analysis of the potential importance of Ashara--I need to dig back into that part of your analysis. . . . 

[The Map Guy]

4 hours ago, Ygrain said:

"The straw on the floor stank of urine. There was no window, no bed, not even a slop bucket."

Add to it that Brandon hadn't washed for a couple of weeks. Really, who would miss a chance for a dungeon sex?

That's from Ned's imprisonment right?

If you truly love someone, you would take care of their needs. If Ashara made the effort to sneak into the dungeon, she can at least bring in buckets, clean water and a towel. Its not hard at that point. And its not like Aerys would personally visit Brandon in the dungeon and take a sniff to make sure he smells bad.

 

4 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Yeah, thing's working against Ashara having freedom of movement within the Red Keep or in and out of King's Landing:

- being Dornish
- being a companion of Elia Martell
- being a sister of Rhaegar's best friend and ally

The rebellion hasn't happened yet at this point, Elia is not a hostage yet.

Arthur may be there, may not be there....but IF Elia was in Kings Landing at this point, Ashara and Brandon would be in the Red Keep together. She would find some way into the dungeon if she was in love. Being the hottie younger sister of a fellow Kingsguard doesn't hurt her chances. Also, there are secret tunnels there too.

If Ashara's movements are denied in and out of King's Landing....when and how did she end up in Starfall? Ashara is not a hostage here, which I think the OP is suggesting.

[Bael's Bastard]

7 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

Arthur may be there, may not be there....but IF Elia was in Kings Landing at this point, Ashara and Brandon would be in the Red Keep together. She would find some way into the dungeon if she was in love. Being the hottie younger sister of a fellow Kingsguard doesn't hurt her chances. Also, there are secret tunnels there too.

Arthur was almost certainly one of the half a dozen closest friends and confidants that Rhaegar had set off with by the start of 282 AC, when Elia and Aegon, and presumably Elia's companion Ashara, were still on Dragonstone. It seems likely that Arthur never again returned to King's Landing, and we know that Rhaegar, who was with him, did not return to King's Landing until after the Battle of the Bells the next year in 283 AC.

We don't know when Aerys brought Elia to King's Landing, or whether she was already there when Brandon was imprisoned. But whether Elia was there before the ordeal with Brandon, or whether Aerys brought her there sometime after, it seems unlikely that Ashara would have been permitted to leave the Red Keep if she had been there or been brought there with Elia after Arthur went missing with Rhaegar.

Being the sister of KG Arthur Dayne would have done Ashara no more good than being the niece of KG Lewyn Martell did Elia. They were both considered part of the Rhaegar faction at odds with the Aerys faction, and that was even before the abduction and executions and all that. All being the niece of KG Lewyn did was enable Aerys to threaten him into action with her life, and it is likely that Aerys would have done the same with KG Arthur if Ashara had been present in King's Landing.

26 minutes ago, The Map Guy said:

If Ashara's movements are denied in and out of King's Landing....when and how did she end up in Starfall? Ashara is not a hostage here, which I think the OP is suggesting.

By having been somewhere where Aerys and his men couldn't take her hostage. She presumably accompanied Elia to her wedding in early 280 AC, and might have accompanied her to King's Landing to present Rhaenys in 281 AC if Elia actually went with Rhaegar (which we don't know that she did). Perhaps they spent some time at King's Landing prior to the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, if Barristan's comment is taken to mean that Ashara had actually been at court in King's Landing.

Otherwise, we don't really have anything placing her in KL for long periods of time. Elia and baby Aegon are placed on Dragonstone at that start of 282 AC, so it makes sense that Ashara would have been there with her, and it is possible that she left Dragonstone before or when Aerys sent for Elia and her children.

[The Map Guy]

12 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I don't understand your claim Ashara that is guilty of something. I haven't claimed she is, other than, if she is Septa Lemore, of being part of Varys's conspiracy. Who are her enemies? In this scenario, those who overthrew the Targaryens and killed Rhaegar, Elia, and their children. By helping to attempt to put "Aegon" on the Iron Throne she gets some measure of revenge.

You can be harsh if you like, but I use all the details we know of Ashara to construct this theory. It is only that the parameters are set by so little facts. If you choose to not take it seriously, that is all up to you and you're welcome to do so.

What I meant by "guilty of association" means that Ashara hanging out with Elia and Rhaegar automatically implies she is part of the conspiracy. But like I said before, there are no textual evidence or symbolic evidence to suggest that she would do that.

Is it possible? Yes if GRRM hinted some more details about Ashara...but it wouldn't need a fake suicide attempt, a suicide that everyone in Westeros already knows.

There is nothing to suggest she would fake her own death, but A LOT more reasons why she would actually commit suicide as the book said.

Faking her death for revenge?

Her stillborn died. The gods' fault.

Her lover died (assuming its Brandon). Aerys' fault, he is dead.

Her brother died, Ned's fault. He is currently dead now.

Elia died, Tywin's fault. He is also currently dead.

Rhaegar died, Robert's fault. He is currently dead too.

 

If Ashara was indeed Lemore, I find it more believable if she survives her failed suicide jump, instead of faking one.

 

 

[The Map Guy]

21 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Arthur was almost certainly one of the half a dozen closest friends and confidants that Rhaegar had set off with by the start of 282 AC, when Elia and Aegon, and presumably Elia's companion Ashara, were still on Dragonstone. It seems likely that Arthur never again returned to King's Landing, and we know that Rhaegar, who was with him, did not return to King's Landing until after the Battle of the Bells the next year in 283 AC.

We don't know when Aerys brought Elia to King's Landing, or whether she was already there when Brandon was imprisoned. But whether Elia was there before the ordeal with Brandon, or whether Aerys brought her there sometime after, it seems unlikely that Ashara would have been permitted to leave the Red Keep if she had been there or been brought there with Elia after Arthur went missing with Rhaegar.

Being the sister of KG Arthur Dayne would have done Ashara no more good than being the niece of KG Lewyn Martell did Elia. They were both considered part of the Rhaegar faction at odds with the Aerys faction, and that was even before the abduction and executions and all that. All being the niece of KG Lewyn did was enable Aerys to threaten him into action with her life, and it is likely that Aerys would have done the same with KG Arthur if Ashara had been present in King's Landing.

By having been somewhere where Aerys and his men couldn't take her hostage. She presumably accompanied Elia to her wedding in early 280 AC, and might have accompanied her to King's Landing to present Rhaenys in 281 AC if Elia actually went with Rhaegar (which we don't know that she did). Perhaps they spent some time at King's Landing prior to the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, if Barristan's comment is taken to mean that Ashara had actually been at court in King's Landing.

Otherwise, we don't really have anything placing her in KL for long periods of time. Elia and baby Aegon are placed on Dragonstone at that start of 282 AC, so it makes sense that Ashara would have been there with her, and it is possible that she left Dragonstone before or when Aerys sent for Elia and her children.

Eh....feels like we are doing a circle from the OP. This whole debate was trying to pinpoint where Ashara is.

As to your speculations about Catelyn and Ashara Dayne... sigh... needless to say, All Will Be Revealed in Good Time. I will give you this much, however; Ashara Dayne was not nailed to the floor in Starfall, as some of the fans who write me seem to assume. They have horses in Dorne too, you know. And boats (though not many of their own). As a matter of fact (a tiny tidbit from SOS), she was one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing, in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar.

-GRRM

Rhaegar married Elia in 280AC, "the first few years" implies two or more years.

And going around the circle again, which is more correct? The heavily detailed TWOIAF? Or GRRM's SSM (which is probably more plot-driven than detail-driven)?

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

Quote

Rhaegar had chosen Lyanna Stark of Winterfell. Barristan Selmy would have made a different choice. Not the queen, who was not present. Nor Elia of Dorne, though she was good and gentle; had she been chosen, much war and woe might have been avoided. His choice would have a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia's companions . . . though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess looked like a kitchen drab. (The Kingbreaker, ADWD)

Ashara was a young maiden, so she could have been in the same age bracket as Lyanna, Cersei and Jaime. And she had not been long at court. 

The timeline of Rhaegar and Elia's marriage is actually small enough that we can work out her movements more easily than other characters's.

We know Elia traveled to Dorne before Harrenhal. She took Rhaenys with her and went home. Arianne remembers holding Rhaenys. And we know that on the way back, she and her escort were going through the kingswood when they were attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood. We have some of that story from Ulmer the Outlaw about putting an arrow through Gerold Hightower's hand and stealing a kiss from a Dornish princess.

If Ashara hadn't been in King's Landing for that long, there's a good chance she traveled with Elia from Dorne to King's Landing in 281. 

This thread and the one on Aegon/Varys has finally settled me on Lemore's possible identity.

[SFDanny]

4 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Rhaegar married Elia in 280AC, "the first few years" implies two or more years.

And going around the circle again, which is more correct? The heavily detailed TWOIAF? Or GRRM's SSM (which is probably more plot-driven than detail-driven)?

 

Just replying to the bolded part. I did this already, but once again. Rhaegar and Elia are married in early 280 AC. In fact we can say it is in the first three months of 280. Why? Because Rhaenys is also born in 280 AC. For both those things to take place along with a normal pregnancy it means Rhaenys must be born in the last quarter of that year. I do know it is possible that we could have a baby conceived before the marriage, but I find that exceedingly unlikely. This is not a love match or one of lust. It is a arranged marriage. If Ashara is with Elia in the time of the wedding up to when they move to Dragonstone that shows Ashara is in King's Landing one of the two or more years.

Because we know Elia and Rhaegar bring Rhaenys to King's Landing to be shown to Aerys and Rhaella AND we know Elia was bedridden for six months after Rhaenys birth we can say it is almost certain that this visit, likely including Ashara, takes place after the first three months of 281 AC. This then is evidence that Ashara was likely in King's Landing in the first two years, or to quote again the SSM, the "first few years" after the marriage. The evidence provided from TWoIA&F and the main series verifies the truth of the SSM in this minor regard rather than contradicts it. That is true about the rest of the SSM as well, excepting the "shocking" editorial decision to move part of Martin's reveal to a later volume than ASoS.

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Ashara was a young maiden, so she could have been in the same age bracket as Lyanna, Cersei and Jaime. And she had not been long at court. 

The timeline of Rhaegar and Elia's marriage is actually small enough that we can work out her movements more easily than other characters's.

We know Elia traveled to Dorne before Harrenhal. She took Rhaenys with her and went home. Arianne remembers holding Rhaenys. And we know that on the way back, she and her escort were going through the kingswood when they were attacked by the Kingswood Brotherhood. We have some of that story from Ulmer the Outlaw about putting an arrow through Gerold Hightower's hand and stealing a kiss from a Dornish princess.

If Ashara hadn't been in King's Landing for that long, there's a good chance she traveled with Elia from Dorne to King's Landing in 281. 

This thread and the one on Aegon/Varys has finally settled me on Lemore's possible identity.

It's an excellent thought, but do we know Ulmer's story doesn't come from when Elia travels north to the wedding? It would parallel what we know of the Lord Commander under Robert escorting Cersei to King's Landing. That would put it in late 279 AC to 280 AC. 

Spoiler

The part about Arianne remembering holding Rhaenys comes from TWoW spoiler chapters if I remember correctly. If I'm right it would be good to put it in spoiler tags. This could mean Elia went home with Rhaenys and Ashara, but it could also mean a trip of Arianne to Dragonstone with her father or uncle. That would be interesting as well. Am I missing something? Is there another reference that I'm forgetting of a trip to Dorne?

 

[Ygrain]

10 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

That's from Ned's imprisonment right?

If you truly love someone, you would take care of their needs. If Ashara made the effort to sneak into the dungeon, she can at least bring in buckets, clean water and a towel. Its not hard at that point.

Lol, I'd say that sneaking and bringing buckets of water are mutually exclusive, even if you have a full freedom of the castle.

BTW, when Ashara sneaks in, who do you suggest opens the door for her?

10 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

And its not like Aerys would personally visit Brandon in the dungeon and take a sniff to make sure he smells bad.

I don't think he took care about hygiene and proper sanitation, either. The place is as uninviting for sex as it gets, and I highly doubt that even Brandon himself would be in the mood.

10 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

The rebellion hasn't happened yet at this point, Elia is not a hostage yet.

And she is definitely not in KL at this time. Why should she go there on her own, without Rhaegar, with a baby son and recovering from the childbirth that nearly killed her? It's not clear how much time passed in between but if she was bedridden after the birth of Rhaenys for six months, there is no reason to assume that her recovery after Aegon's birth was miraculously fast.

10 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Also, there are secret tunnels there too.

Does Ashara now have DnD rogue skills to find secret entrances?

 

[Rufus Snow]

7 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Does Ashara now have DnD rogue skills to find secret entrances?

Indeed. Dungeon Sex Fetish is slash.

Imagine: the person you love is locked up, facing a death penalty at the hands of a cruelly insane king.

You have: the ability to sneak past the guards, possibly even have their sympathy as someone seems to unlock the doors whilst you're bogged down with buckets and towels, and your skill set allows you to find hidden tunnels...

The question is: do you have a quickie then leave your lover to die?

... or do you try to help them escape, even though there's a risk of death there, too?

 

Given a choice between a furtive shag and a chance to save a lover's life, I doubt many people would choose the former over the latter.

[The Map Guy]

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Lol, I'd say that sneaking and bringing buckets of water are mutually exclusive, even if you have a full freedom of the castle.

BTW, when Ashara sneaks in, who do you suggest opens the door for her?

I don't think he took care about hygiene and proper sanitation, either. The place is as uninviting for sex as it gets, and I highly doubt that even Brandon himself would be in the mood.

And she is definitely not in KL at this time. Why should she go there on her own, without Rhaegar, with a baby son and recovering from the childbirth that nearly killed her? It's not clear how much time passed in between but if she was bedridden after the birth of Rhaenys for six months, there is no reason to assume that her recovery after Aegon's birth was miraculously fast.

Does Ashara now have DnD rogue skills to find secret entrances?

 

IF Brandon was Ashara's only love from the Tourney. We can all agreed, that as her first & only (esp from the female perspective) she has a heavy attachment to Brandon. Being coincidentally in the Red Keep at the same time, she would make every effort to take care of him. Given her situation as Elia's companion and sister of a kingsguard, she has a 99% better chance than any other girls in King's Landing to have access to the dungeon. It could be simply that she was let in the dungeon by the guards since she knew them. It also helps being an attractive girl with her sad puppy-dog haunting violet eyes, asking for a favor...girls like that get away with a lot more things lol.

 

1 hour ago, Rufus Snow said:

Given a choice between a furtive shag and a chance to save a lover's life, I doubt many people would choose the former over the latter

Perhaps escape was out of question. Perhaps she didn't know Brandon was going to be executed. She probably thought Aerys would give him mercy and make him take the black. No one in King's Landing thought Rickard & Brandon were going to die the way they did.....and because they died the way they did, it sparked the Rebellion. I think a lot of people thought Ned was going to be given a chance to take the black after making treasonous comments, because they knew executing him meant war. (another great parallel btw)

The 1999 SSM is plot-driven, which I think at anytime, GRRM can remember all his plots, known or secret. GRRM mentions Catelyn, Ashara, being with Elia in Kings Landing for 2+ years, plus the fact she is the brother is a kingsguard, plus the fact that Brandon is in King's Landing too.....its fits that Ashara is part of Ned's, Catelyn's, and Brandon's plot line....and it is a great simple secret story with brilliant parallels. The secret dungeon sex theory links all these facts....and it is a secret. Also, it connects Barristan's "soon after" comment better than any other scenario.

The 2014 TWOIAF is detailed-driven, and even GRRM can't remember all these little details. And as SFdanny's math suggested, its not impossible that Elia was in King's Landing when Brandon was there even though she was at Dragonstone immediately after the Tourney.

I don't think in 1999, GRRM has the fAegon story ready. Could all this contribute to fAegon in later stories? Yes absolutely, but there is still a 1996 unsolved mystery of Ashara, AND fAegon could still be fake.

 

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

I highly doubt that even Brandon himself would be in the mood

Cmon, really? Not in the mood? Brandon? Or any guy locked up in a dungeon? Esp if a beautiful girl, who found her way into your dungeon and attended your needs? lol

 

 

[Alexis-something-Rose]

12 hours ago, SFDanny said:

It's an excellent thought, but do we know Ulmer's story doesn't come from when Elia travels north to the wedding? It would parallel what we know of the Lord Commander under Robert escorting Cersei to King's Landing. That would put it in late 279 AC to 280 AC. 

I am going strictly by what Barristan said about Ashara. A young maiden, not long at court. If you can pin down Ashara's actual age and I personally don't think she was that much older than Cersei, then I think it gives you an idea when she would have left Dorne for the big times. 

The wiki puts the attack on Elia and her escort at 280, before the wedding. If it was in the WoIaF, then I don't remember it, but I'm fine going with that. It doesn't change just how tight the timeline between the wedding happening up to the end of 282 is. Rhaegar and Elia were married 2 years (or almost 2 years) before he vanished with Lyanna and his Kingsguard. 

The whole SSM talking about the first few years doesn't add up with what GRRM gave us afterward, imo. But maybe I don't interpret it the same way you do because of my language barrier.

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

IF Brandon was Ashara's only love from the Tourney. We can all agreed, that as her first & only (esp from the female perspective) she has a heavy attachment to Brandon.

Oh? And where does it say that Brandon was her first? Or that she saw their affair as more than just a tumble with a hottie?

 

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

Given her situation as Elia's companion and sister of a kingsguard, she has a 99% better chance than any other girls in King's Landing to have access to the dungeon.

Agreed - but 99% out of next to zero is still next to zero...

 

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

It could be simply that she was let in the dungeon by the guards since she knew them.

A huuge assumption here. Noble girls don't hang out with guards, and Ashara as Elia's companion is a stranger to KL. There is very little basis to assume that the guards would be inclined to risk Aerys' wrath for her.

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

It also helps being an attractive girl with her sad puppy-dog haunting violet eyes, asking for a favor...girls like that get away with a lot more things lol.

Not if it can make you a toast.

Plus, you haven't elaborated how Ashara came to know the secret tunnels.

 

1 hour ago, The Map Guy said:

Cmon, really? Not in the mood? Brandon? Or any guy locked up in a dungeon? Esp if a beautiful girl, who found her way into your dungeon and attended your needs? lol

Hate to break it on you but lack of food, water, light and the like can undo the libido like nothing else.

2 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

The question is: do you have a quickie then leave your lover to die?

I wouldn't know, a quickie would be like the last thing on my mind.

[SFDanny]

5 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I am going strictly by what Barristan said about Ashara. A young maiden, not long at court. If you can pin down Ashara's actual age and I personally don't think she was that much older than Cersei, then I think it gives you an idea when she would have left Dorne for the big times.

You probably already know this, but we can't pin down Ashara's actual age. All we have is a broad range for her age from a SSM in which Martin is asked about both Howland Reed's and Ashara's ages, and his responses tell us they would both be in their thirties at the time in which the question was asked about. That would be after the publication of A Storm of Swords and before the publication of A Feast for Crows. Meaning the two characters would be somewhere in their thirties in the year 300 AC in which ASoS closes. All we can be sure of is that Ashara is 30 to 39 years old after the events at the Purple Wedding, if she is still alive. Which places her age at Harrenhal as anywhere from 11 to 20. Needless to say, I think Ashara's description at the tourney likely puts her into the latter half of that range. My guess is she is close to Ned's age of 18 and Brandon's age of 19 when the tourney takes place. Maybe 17 or 18? Which is not much older than Cersei's age of 15 during the tourney. So, maybe 16 or 17 at Elia's marriage.However, we can't rule out anything within the ten year range at this point.

I will say that my theory, which includes Ashara being Septa Lemore, is consistent with Tyrion's guess of Lemore's age being "past forty." It is likely that Septa Lemore, having lived on a riverboat for a good length of time, will look somewhat older than a woman who has lived a pampered life at court.

6 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The wiki puts the attack on Elia and her escort at 280, before the wedding. If it was in the WoIaF, then I don't remember it, but I'm fine going with that. It doesn't change just how tight the timeline between the wedding happening up to the end of 282 is. Rhaegar and Elia were married 2 years (or almost 2 years) before he vanished with Lyanna and his Kingsguard.

While I didn't consult the wiki, my estimate of between 279 and the first three months of 280 fits with that source's estimate. Perhaps the author of the wiki entry has a reason to eliminate 279 from the possibilities  that I don't know about. I'll see if I can find out. Early 282, likely the first quarter, is a good estimate for when Rhaegar "abducts" Lyanna. A lot of things have to happen after that event and the end of 282 AC.

 

6 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

The whole SSM talking about the first few years doesn't add up with what GRRM gave us afterward, imo. But maybe I don't interpret it the same way you do because of my language barrier.

This I don't understand. Not only is it clear it does "add up" but it is clear that the only way one gets to it not adding up is by changing the meaning of the words Martin used in his SSM interview. The word "in" does not mean "for the duration of." 

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

On 9/7/2018 at 4:40 AM, SFDanny said:

Yes. While I have no problem with the idea Varys would change his loyalties if it suits him, I do think it is important to know just how powerful his relationship to Aerys has made him. By feeding the king's paranoia, he keeps Aerys tied to him for his worldview. It's not just the "lickspittle lords" of the council who would benefit from Aerys replacing Rhaegar as his heir with Viserys. It is also Varys. Rhaegar's move to deal with the king's madness is in direct opposition to all of these men's interests and power. In the chaos of Aerys's madness these men grow richer and more powerful. So, when we view the history of Rhaegar's and Varys's relationship, this has to be the story that dominates how they view each other. Could Varys approach Rhaegar and/or Elia with an olive branch and a proposition to help them? Including a proposition to help get Aegon out of King's Landing? Again, absolutely yes. But for the two of them to ever trust him? I think no, never. Of course in extreme situations narrowed choices can force unlikely allies.

I don't think it would necessarily be changing loyalties. Is informing the king of actual plots against him "feeding paranoia"?  I know that Barristan says that the rot in Aerys's reign began with Varys, but Yandel's account shows us that Aerys had begun to spiral before Varys ever set foot on Westerosi soil.

And we know what kind of potential "traitors" Varys points out to those in power.

Varys covered his mouth with his hand. "You are very cruel to say so. One last matter. Lady Tanda gave a small supper last night. I have the menu and the guest list for your inspection. When the wine was poured, Lord Gyles rose to lift a cup to the king, and Ser Balon Swann was heard to remark, 'We'll need three cups for that.' Many laughed . . ."

Tyrion raised a hand. "Enough. Ser Balon made a jest. I am not interested in treasonous table talk, Lord Varys."

Tyrion was clever enough not to act on such news. Aerys would have had the man arrested. And worse. And we know that this kind of information was among the stuff reported to Aerys by Varys:

His Grace's growing madness had become unmistakable by that time. From Dorne to the Wall, men had begun to refer to Aerys II as the Mad King. In King's Landing, he was called King Scab, for the many times he had cut himself upon the Iron Throne. Yet with Varys the Spider and his whisperers listening, it had become very dangerous to voice any of these sentiments aloud.

Varys's power - in Westeros - did originate with Aerys, that is completely true. But that doesn't mean that Varys informing the king of Rhaegar's plot was an attempt to grow even more powerful and rich. I think the fact that Varys in 281 AC did exactly what he was hired to do - that is, informing the king of the plotting going on against him - is sometimes neglected. Rhaegar, we have reason to believe, was plotting against his father, That Varys, should he discover clues to this plot, would reported it to the king, should not have been a surprise to Rhaegar.

Which is also part of the reason as to why I find Barristan's claim (as reported by Stannis) so interesting, and I certainly hope we will learn much and more about Aerys's court during the final years of his reign. Because it might give us an answer to the question of what the relationship between Varys and Rhaegar was. 

 

On 9/7/2018 at 4:40 AM, SFDanny said:

All of which reinforces Martin's "complicated" description. I expect we will find out more, or at least I certainly hope so. Here, let me continue a theme I see in Martin's writing. Complicated and powerful women. Not that I have any claim of ownership to that obvious observation, but I like to keep reminding myself of it when I try to understand this story. If I don't my daughter and her mother will kick my ass, but that is another story. Anyway, I think Elia fits this pattern, not just in her relationship to Rhaegar, but also to her brothers. Which is a long way of saying what pisses off the Martell brothers may well not be what Elia sees as important. So, even assuming Elia can communicate with her brothers, they may not agree with each other on what to do. I hope we find out find out what Elia knew, and who she agreed with, if anyone, before this series ends. I find these relationships fascinating and don't want Elia to be left as a hopeless woman with no power or plans of her own. My bias.

You and me both!

 

On 9/7/2018 at 4:40 AM, SFDanny said:

What that means to my theory in my opening post is that I don't want to assume that even if it is Elia who makes the plans to smuggle Aegon out, it doesn't necessarily follow that she would want Aegon to go to Sunspear. She may have hope of controlling Aegon's fate by having him the hands of people who follow her orders, not her brothers.

One question that arises if Rhaegar and Elia tasked Ashara with keeping Aegon safe, and Varys joining in the plan only after both Rhaegar and Elia had died, is this: Why would Ashara (Lemore) agree to lie to Aegon about how the plot went down? Why let the child believe that it was Varys who had rescued him?

 

On 9/7/2018 at 4:40 AM, SFDanny said:

I do believe that the stories told by different people are clues to when, where, and how they heard them. Noting that if a woman named Wylla, who claimed she was the mother of Ned's child is NOT part of any soldiers gossip tells us it is highly unlikely that Wylla and Jon were known to anyone before Ned leaves his troops at Storm's End. That the people of Starfall think Wylla is Jon's mother tells us that Jon is first known publicly when either she, or she and Ned, arrive in that city. For the purposes of this thread, it is interesting that Ashara isn't thought of as a candidate to be Jon's mother in Starfall. If she is, it likely means she wasn't pregnant and deliver in Starfall when Jon was born. Then the people would know she was Jon's mother. Was she someplace else during this time?

Which brings us to the question: When did Ashara conceive? When did she give birth? Did she conceive during Harrenhal, when she "turned to Stark"? Or, when she was "dishonored" at the same tourney?  Or, did she become pregnant only later, and give birth not in mid-282 AC, but closer to late 283/early 284 AC, considering Barristan tells us she committed suicide "shortly after" her daughter had been stillborn? What time period does Barristan consider to be short?

Harrenhal might very well have been the place where she conceived a child, although that would most likely contradict Barristan's assessment (or, the time period of slightly more than a year is considered a short time period in his mind, in which case, no issue is present). Or not, if indeed her suicide quickly followed the birth of her daughter.

All a long way of saying that she uncertainty there is (to us readers) about when Ashara was pregnant. Because even if she had given birth around the time of Jon's birth, according to Barristan, Ashara gave birth to a daughter. (Do we have any reason do doubt that information?) Knowing that she had given birth to a girl, why would the Starfall garrison believe she had given birth to a son instead?

It would also, I suppose, entirely depend on where she gave birth.  However, I consider Starfall to be the most likely location at the moment.

[Lord Varys]

15 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

You and me both!

Don't expect much in this regard. If Queen Rhaella was just a pawn, being imprisoned and raped and clawed by her royal brother-husband, then Elia shouldn't have had any more power - especially not considering that she never shows any active part or agenda of her own in any of the hints we have been given at this point.

Rhaegar was just 'fond' of Rhaegar - which seems to be a euphemism for 'Rhaegar didn't love her but suffered her presence/didn't resent her', not an indication that they were very close or friends and confidants. If George had wanted to send such a message we would have gotten a description like 'Rhaegar and Elia were very close' or 'Elia was Rhaegar's closest friend', etc.

She fails to give Rhaegar the sons he wanted, Rhaegar publicly humiliates her at Harrenhal, he leaves her back on Dragonstone, and he takes no precaution to protect her person from any dangers she might have to face thanks to whatever he did or planned to do.

Rhaegar may not have wanted Elia to suffer after she couldn't give him more children but it seems pretty clear that their marriage was effectively over after that. And there is no indication that there was anything left of their relationship that could be saved after Rhaegar's return - and if it was and we don't yet know anything of that, then Rhaegar clearly made no attempt to repair that relationship since there is no indication he spent any time with Elia or his children after his return.

15 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

One question that arises if Rhaegar and Elia tasked Ashara with keeping Aegon safe, and Varys joining in the plan only after both Rhaegar and Elia had died, is this: Why would Ashara (Lemore) agree to lie to Aegon about how the plot went down? Why let the child believe that it was Varys who had rescued him?

That is the crux which makes this whole 'Ashara Dayne might be involved in the Aegon plan as we know it' idea break down. There is no reason not to tell Aegon that Varys saved him when that's not the case and the people telling Aegon that story do know it.

And one assumes the story of the Pisswater Prince is *wrong* even if Varys actually did save the real Aegon - it sounds like the kind of story one would tell young Aegon. A story where the death of the other child has some meaning - Varys most likely wouldn't have to have to buy a child from parents who did not want it, but would have rather just taken a Lysene slave child with Valyrian features. But it makes more sense to tell the boy a story where the parents didn't even want the child that died, not a story about a child which was taken from his parents by force (slavery).

15 minutes ago, Rhaenys_Targaryen said:

Which brings us to the question: When did Ashara conceive? When did she give birth? Did she conceive during Harrenhal, when she "turned to Stark"? Or, when she was "dishonored" at the same tourney?  Or, did she become pregnant only later, and give birth not in mid-282 AC, but closer to late 283/early 284 AC, considering Barristan tells us she committed suicide "shortly after" her daughter had been stillborn? What time period does Barristan consider to be short?

Harrenhal might very well have been the place where she conceived a child, although that would most likely contradict Barristan's assessment (or, the time period of slightly more than a year is considered a short time period in his mind, in which case, no issue is present). Or not, if indeed her suicide quickly followed the birth of her daughter.

I think I've laid out above somewhere that the whole 'Ashara is Jon's mother' idea would completely break down if Ashara had actually conceived a child at Harrenhal and Eddard Stark had only seen her again when he returned Dawn. That wouldn't make much sense.

The time passed between a stillbirth in 282 AC and her suicide could still work, but the story would work much better if Ashara actually had had this stillbirth closer to her own death in 283 AC. We have no clue when exactly she died.

I'm also pretty sure that there must have been *something* between Ned and Ashara - else the Stark men would have known that Brandon was the one dishonoring/impregnating Ashara, and not Ned. Brandon Stark would have had no reason to keep it a secret that he took the maidenhead of as beautiful a maiden as Ashara Dayne. That would have been a conquest to brag about - especially to Ned, but also to all his other buddies.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

@SFDanny, this has been a fun thread with interesting speculation. I have nothing to add, but your thread and some of the replies have opened another door for me as to who Septa Lemore might be. If Aegon is the real deal and I personally believe that he is, then there's only one person in the world who can vouch for him and that's the woman who gave birth to him.

And yes, I know exactly how it sounds.

[SFDanny]

2 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

@SFDanny, this has been a fun thread with interesting speculation. I have nothing to add, but your thread and some of the replies have opened another door for me as to who Septa Lemore might be. If Aegon is the real deal and I personally believe that he is, then there's only one person in the world who can vouch for him and that's the woman who gave birth to him.

And yes, I know exactly how it sounds.

I very much want to thank you for you contributions to the thread and for taking the time to read my thoughts. I'll look forward to reading more of your posts, either here or elsewhere.