Ashara, post Harrenhal possibilities

[Alexis-something-Rose]

10 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Here we have some disagreement. I think Rhaegar has a very, very good reason for never bringing Lyanna to King's Landing and it all centers on not letting Aerys have control of her. What Aerys does with Elia and her children in his blackmail of Dorne is exactly what Aerys would do with Lyanna. Her life would be in danger if the rebels did not lay down their arms and submit to Aerys's "justice."

I agree that he would have tried to use her as blackmail against the north (and Rhaegar himself), but I'm not sure he would have harmed her, although there's still that massively loose thread of the KotLT. One thing that I do tend to go back to is what did Aerys promise his son (if he promised him anything at all that is). You and I are in agreement that the reason he went back to KL was because Elia and the children were there. Did Aerys promise him that no harm would come to Lyanna if he returned? 

I do have a question, actually, because I keep seeing speculation that Ashara was at the ToJ. Would anyone believe that Lyanna, Rhaegar, the KG were holed up at the tower for like a year and beyond if the tower was named Watchtower #3 rather than the tower of joy?

And question #2 (and I'm not a huge fan of bringing in the World book), on the off chance that Aegon was spirited away from King's Landing, is there a chance that Aerys may have found out about this and used it as one of the reasons he decided to pybass Aegon and name Viserys his heir?

[Bael's Bastard]

@SFDanny

Thank you for elaborating on your theory! I appreciate the work you put into conveying your thoughts on the matter.

I don't believe that Septa Lemora = Ashara Dayne, or that Ashara faked her death and is still alive today, or that baby Aegon was saved by anyone from the Sack of King's Landing. That said, I commend you for outlining a for the most part plausible case for your theory, that attempts to work within the framework of the facts we know, or think we know.

I would agree that it is among the possibilities that Ashara was on Dragonstone with Elia in early 282 AC, and that she was in Starfall by around mid-282 AC.

Since Rhaegar and Elia lived on Dragonstone, and since Ashara was one of Elia's companions leading up to the Harrenhal Tourney at the end of 281 AC, she was most likely on Dragonstone with Elia before the Harrenhal Tourney. And since Elia returned to Dragonstone and had baby Aegon by the start of 282 AC, just months later, it is likely that Ashara returned to Dragonstone with her after the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC.

And if Ashara was indeed impregnated at the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, we would expect her child, whatever its gender and whatever its fate, to have come around mid-282 AC. And if an unwed Ashara impregnated at the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC began to show at the start of 282 AC, it would make sense for her to have left for Starfall. 

But I think Selmy's admittedly sometimes imprecise recollection gives us reason to consider the possibility that Ashara's pregnanacy occurred quite a bit later than the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC. Selmy seems to believe that Ashara threw herself from a tower soon after she'd had a stillborn daughter, mad with grief for the child she'd lost, and perhaps for the man who'd dishonored her at Harrenhal.

Ashara being believed to have thrown herself off a tower in late 283 AC or early 284 AC could hardly be called "soon after" a child delivered in mid-282 AC, whatever its gender or fate. And what of the man who Selmy believes dishonored her at Harrenhal? If it be Brandon (which I am not positive about), he died in 282 AC. Not sure what you think about this.

Perhaps Selmy's "soon after" is a poor recollection, or perhaps it is just a poor choice of words for what he knows was a year to a year and a half between these tragedies and Ashara's alleged suicide. But at the very least, it opens up the possibility that Selmy believes Ashara was impregnated in late 282 AC or in 283 AC, and believes the alleged loss of her child was much more recent than mid-282 AC when she allegedly threw herself off a tower in 283 AC-284 AC.

Which is all a long winded way of saying that it is possible that, if she truly conceived a child at some point, there is a possibility it might have been well after Harrenhal in late 281 AC. And if that is the case, it really keeps open the possibilities of when she would have started to show, and when she might have been required to leave Elia's services, whether on Dragonstone or in King's Landing.

We can agree that we know Ashara was one of Elia's ladies in late 281 AC, and that she was at Starfall in late 283 AC or early 284 AC. In between, there are a lot of possibilities, no doubt by the author's design.

I could also agree that Varys wouldn't be the first person Rhaegar and/or Elia would trust the life of their only son Aegon to. But I think we must also consider the Varys we meet in the series, and the relationships he develops with our POV characters. Those relationships should warn us against assuming that Varys is 100% on this side or that side, even without taking into account that Varys has his own personal plots.

I think it is possible that Varys had as nuanced a relationship with Rhaegar as he is shown to have with Ned and Tyrion, and which he no doubt has and has had with other characters. As he tells Ned, he feeds Littlefinger choice whispers, sufficient so that he thinks he is his, just as he allows Cersei to believe he is hers, and no doubt this is the way of it for most or all such relationships he has had since coming to Westeros.

We shouldn't be surprised that Varys informed Aerys of Rhaegar's intentions at Harrenhal if he learned of them, whether it threw a wrench in Rhaegar's plans, or whether it was Rhaegar's desire all along to show the realm wha Aerys had become. But neither should we be surprised if we were to learn that Varys informed Rhaegar of impending things he had heard or was aware of either.

Varys is someone who will keep secrets when it suits him to, but will also reveal secrets when it suits him, or when he feels he has no choice. It is something he is also very honest about when confronted by a Ned or a Tyrion about his seemingly two-faced nature. He is willing to keep Tyrion's secret of Shae, but admits that if Cersei were to ask what he knows of Shae, he would not lie to her.

Again, not to say that Rhaegar and/or Elia would have been quick to trust him with the life of their only son. But Varys is skilled at using the information he has acquired, including using the dangers their loved ones face.

He uses the danger Sansa faces to get Ned to make a particular decision that he claims will help save her life, even though in this case he is unwilling or unable to get her to freedom, or get Ned to freedom, as it will implicate him, and he is not yet done using his position to aid his own plots.

He is willing to keep Tyrion's secret about Shae, and is seemingly willing to help Tyrion sneak her away, but the danger to Shae while she remains is always present, as he acknowledges he will tell if asked. He eventually saves Tyrions live by sneaking him out, demonstrating his ability to do so, though this does prove he did so in the case of Aegon.

Personally, I think the story about sneaking Aegon out was created by Varys after the fact. An opportunity Gregor Clegane unintentionally gave him when he smashed baby Aegon's face in. But I acknowledge that the waters are just muddy enough to make Varys's story possible, if not plausible.

An Ashara Dayne might help explain how a Varys was able to get a Jon Connington on board, but I am not sure such a proof would have been necessary to get him on board. Whether there is an Ashara or not to lend credibility, Connington is faced with the choice to believe that Aegon is dead or that this child is Aegon. And just the possibility that he could be forsaking Rhaegar's son by refusing to take part could be enough to manipulate him into taking part.

As for the rest of the realm, many will have good reason to support AeGriff whether they buy the story or not. I don't think an Ashara or someone else to vouch for AeGriff's provenance is necessary. I suspect many of the smallfolk will buy it, believing Rhaegar's son was back from his perceived death to save them from the Lannisters. Most great lords have no good reason to sink with the Lannister boat. And AeGriff can win the support of the North and the Riverlands just by paying lip service to the restoration of the beloved Starks and the Tullys against the hated Boltons and Freys. And the Martells will be in no rush to support the Lannisters against AeGriff's claim whether they believe him real or fake.

Furthermore, I think securing Daenerys's hand was intended to make up for any credibility AeGriff or his story may be perceived by some to lack, in addition to absorbing the power she had acquired for herself. If Lemore = Ashara, then no doubt she would have been used to win over Daenerys too, but I don't think that plot requires an Ashara, just as I don't think securing Connington requires an Ashara.

The story of Varys sneaking out the child and him standing here today might not sound like the most plausible, but all of these people, whether Connington or Daenerys, are forced to deal with the questions of what if it really is him, and do you want to take the chance that it isn't?

Just some thoughts, I look forward to discussing further.

[Bael's Bastard]

On 9/3/2018 at 7:58 AM, Ygrain said:

Unlike the rest, here I am in 100% agreement, I don't see them working with Varys, either. The story of the Pisswater Prince is not corroborated by anything and anyone, and as such, highly suspicious.

However, I would like to propose another possible scenario for the baby swap - one in which Aegon was actually never in KL. Some time during the Rebellion, Elia and her children came to KL. I think it is a safe bet that this wasn't Elia's idea, that it was ordered by Aerys. Now, if Ashara stayed (perhaps due to the return of winter weather and then problems in pregnancy), and gave birth, at DS, Elia and Ashara could organize a quick swap to protect the supposed PTWP. Ashara would then take "her" baby to Starfall, and be devastated when her baby was murdered in the Sack.  - A similar scenario, a lady-in-waiting substituting her baby for the prince and the substitute getting killed, is actually presented in the Accursed Kings, which GRRM acknowledged as an inspiration.

- The problem is, a second prince in hiding seems redundant for the story, there are hints at an impostor and the historical parallels also provide quite a number of impostors during turbulent times.

Also, let us not forget the theory with Allyria being B+A :-)

That is a really interesting idea. The detail that Elia lived on Dragonstone helped make it much more possible that her Aegon was never brought to King's Landing in the first place. And a swap could make it plausible for Ashara to have given birth to a child conceived way back at Harrenhal in later 281 AC, but to have not killed herself over its death until after she was visited by Ned in 283-284 AC.

But in such a scenario, where she conceived at Harrenhal in late 281 AC, gave birth in mid-282 AC, and the child was murdered during the sack in 283 AC, we almost certainly have to look for a father other than Brandon Stark, because of the coloring. And we'd still need to sense of why Selmy considers her death to have been "soon after" the death of her stillborn daughter, though that's not insurmountable.

[The Map Guy]

27 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

"soon after"

Damn this "soon after"....messing up the timeline from Harrenhal

Unless Ashara and Brandon Stark spent some time together while they were at King's Landing after the abduction of Lyanna.....

[Bael's Bastard]

13 hours ago, The Twinslayer said:

This is an interesting theory and I will give it some more thought.  But one thing jumped out at me upon initially reading it. You quote a pre-ASOS SSM in which GRRM supposedly said that we would learn in ASOS that Ashara was "one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar."  

The odd thing about this, of course, is that (1) that information did not make it into ASOS, and (2) we later learned via the world book that contrary to that old SSM, Elia did not live in King's Landing "in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar":  rather, Elia lived on Dragonstone during that time, as indicated in a passage you cite from the world book. 

For purposes of your theory, I think this creates some confusion about where Ashara was between the tournament at Harrenhal and the time she jumped off the Palestone Tower that is not reflected in your analysis here.  Do you see that as an issue?  In my view, all it means is that that old SSM was probably an off-hand remark and that none of it should be taken very seriously.  The information about Ashara contained in the world book is more likely to be accurate.  

It might not have made it into ASOS, but it made it into ADWD, where Selmy recalls Ashara having been "not long at court" and "one of Elia's companions" at the time of the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC. Not sure why your are nitpicking that it didn't show up in ASOS, and chose not to acknowledge that it shows up in ADWD, when the reference in ADWD retains the essence of the SSM, that Ashara was not only not nailed down at Starfall, but was actually with Elia for some amount of time after her marriage to Rhaegar in 280 AC.

[The Sleeper]

1 hour ago, Bael's Bastard said:

@SFDanny

We shouldn't be surprised that Varys informed Aerys of Rhaegar's intentions at Harrenhal if he learned of them, whether it threw a wrench in Rhaegar's plans, or whether it was Rhaegar's desire all along to show the realm wha Aerys had become. But neither should we be surprised if we were to learn that Varys informed Rhaegar of impending things he had heard or was aware of either.

This scenario did occur to me, that the tourney at Harrenhal was ultimately a ploy to expose Aerys to the realm and Varys's part was to get him there. It would be the best argument that Rhaegar could have made and it is also a very Varys thing to do. It also sounds like something that Varys would conceive, allowing him to be on good terms with both sides. It is my favorite scenario about the tourney. 

[Rufus Snow]

Wow, too many twists and turns to answer everyone... but what I'm beginning to wonder, is whether this 'Pisswater Prince' might actually have been Ashara's SON conceived at Harrenhal with (unknown for now...) Ashara's appearance could lead to her bearing a child easily taken for a Targling. Then Ashara and Elia doing a baby-swap could be possible, and also Ashara's supposed suicide 'a short while' after the death of her stillborn daughter/baby son makes more sense too. Once she hears that 'baby Aegon' is dead, then she would know it was her own switcheroo son instead.

Having said all that, I had sided with the 'Ashara's still alive' camp, with the suicide a fake, as hinted by lack of a body. I'd also decided against Ashara being Lemore because of 'the eyes that didn't bark in the night' - Tyrion closely studies every scintilla of Lemore's body, yet fails to notice her eyes. Yet Ashara's eyes are said to be particularly striking, so Lemore =/= Ashara. I still like the idea that Ashara may be Jyana Reed, having wound up there after getting Aegon safely across to Essos, possibly with Varys help, possibly with Varys intervening after the fact

[Bael's Bastard]

2 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

This scenario did occur to me, that the tourney at Harrenhal was ultimately a ploy to expose Aerys to the realm and Varys's part was to get him there. It would be the best argument that Rhaegar could have made and it is also a very Varys thing to do. It also sounds like something that Varys would conceive, allowing him to be on good terms with both sides. It is my favorite scenario about the tourney. 

Yeah, I am not sure where I land on the nature of Varys's acquisition of that information. Did Rhaegar try and fail to conceal his intentions from Varys, or did he want Varys to relay this idea to Aerys to provoke him into action?

Did Rhaegar speak or write of his intentions in a way he knew Varys would hear themand relay them to Aerys?
Did Rhaegar tell Varys his intentions knowing he would relay them to Aerys?
Did Rhaegar  tell Varys to relay his intentions to Aerys?

My initial thought was that it was pretty straightforward. Rhaegar was plotting, Varys found out and told Aerys, and Rhaegar's plans were ruined by Aerys's attendance. I am still not sure that isn't what happened.

But I think it is very possible that Rhaegar eventually came to believe that the only way he would be able to make any changes is if the lords of the realm were to actually witness what Aerys had become.

I don't want to derail this thread with how Varys came to know Rhaegar's intentions, but since Varys and whether Rhaegar and/or Elia would trust him was brought up, I thought it was important to note that we shouldn't think Varys today operates extremely different than how Varys operated in the time of Rhaegar, Elia, and Aerys.

I think Varys's conversations with Ned and Tyrion, and the implications about his dealings with Cersei, are very informative in hinting at how he operated with Aerys and Rhaegar. I am sure he gave Aerys every reason to have faith in him, whereas I could see Rhaegar being more skeptical like a Ned or Tyrion. Nevertheless, I would be shocked if Varys didn't give Rhaegar reason to see his skill and usefulness, even if he understood he could just as easily hurt him as help him.

In other words, I don't think Varys was "on Aerys's side" in the conflict between Aerys's faction and Rhaega'rs faction. I am sure he gave Aerys every reason to believe he was "his," but I am just as certain that he did not limit his choice whispers to Aerys and his favorites. I could very easily see him throw Rhaegar some bones just as he threw Ned and Tyrion. But if it came down to it, he wasn't going to keep Rhaegar's secrets from the king if he asked the right question(s).
 

[Bael's Bastard]

14 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Wow, too many twists and turns to answer everyone... but what I'm beginning to wonder, is whether this 'Pisswater Prince' might actually have been Ashara's SON conceived at Harrenhal with (unknown for now...) Ashara's appearance could lead to her bearing a child easily taken for a Targling. Then Ashara and Elia doing a baby-swap could be possible, and also Ashara's supposed suicide 'a short while' after the death of her stillborn daughter/baby son makes more sense too. Once she hears that 'baby Aegon' is dead, then she would know it was her own switcheroo son instead.

Having said all that, I had sided with the 'Ashara's still alive' camp, with the suicide a fake, as hinted by lack of a body. I'd also decided against Ashara being Lemore because of 'the eyes that didn't bark in the night' - Tyrion closely studies every scintilla of Lemore's body, yet fails to notice her eyes. Yet Ashara's eyes are said to be particularly striking, so Lemore =/= Ashara. I still like the idea that Ashara may be Jyana Reed, having wound up there after getting Aegon safely across to Essos, possibly with Varys help, possibly with Varys intervening after the fact

The idea of a child Ashara conceived at Harrenhal being swapped for Aegon is interesting, but would almost certainly require a father other than Brandon Stark. Ashara had purple eyes, but she had dark hair, so was unlikely to produce a fair haired child with Brandon.

[SiSt]

While I've only skimmed through the thread I just recently found something that may be relevant to at least narrow down some possibilities, or explore some other directions for this. Maybe everyone knows this quote, but on the other hand, maybe everyone else have missed it on previous reads? 

Quote

He is a man of the Night's Watch, she thought, as he sang about some stupid lady throwing herself off some stupid tower because her stupid prince was dead. The lady should go kill the ones who killed her prince. And the singer should be on the Wall. When Dareon had first appeared at the Happy Port, Arya had almost asked if he would take her with him back to Eastwatch, until she heard him telling Bethany that he was never going back. "Hard beds, salt cod, and endless watches, that's the Wall," he'd said. "Besides, there's no one half as pretty as you at Eastwatch. How could I ever leave you?" He had said the same thing to Lanna, Cat had heard, and to one of the whores at the Cattery, and even to the Nightingale the night he played at the House of Seven Lamps.

This seems to me like the kind of offhand hint that GRRM tends to enjoy.

[The Twinslayer]

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

It might not have made it into ASOS, but it made it into ADWD, where Selmy recalls Ashara having been "not long at court" and "one of Elia's companions" at the time of the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC. Not sure why your are nitpicking that it didn't show up in ASOS, and chose not to acknowledge that it shows up in ADWD, when the reference in ADWD retains the essence of the SSM, that Ashara was not only not nailed down at Starfall, but was actually with Elia for some amount of time after her marriage to Rhaegar in 280 AC.

The point here is that the SSM places Elia and Ashara in King's Landing together in the early years of Elia's marriage to Rhaegar.  But the world book says that Elia was on Dragonstone at that time.  So the SSM is just wrong.  

And it is not just a case of moving information from ASOS to ADWD, because Barristan does not place Ashara in King's Landing during those years.  He places her "at court."  Given that she was a companion to Elia and Elia lived on Dragonstone, the "court" Barristan is referring to is not Aerys' court in King's Landing.  It is Rhaegar's court on Dragonstone.  It is possible that Ashara never once set foot in King's Landing.   

Which, to me, calls into question the entirety of the SSM, which is not really about where Ashara lived before the Harrenhal tournament but about whether it was logistically possible for Ned and Ashara to be Jon's parents.  

On a related note, the information about Ashara being "dishonored at Harrenhal" is phrased in an interesting way.  It does not say that she was dishonored during the tournament.  It says she was dishonored "at Harrenhal."  What if she stayed at Harrenhal with the Whents after the tournament and was caught there when winter returned after the end of the False Spring?  In that case, she would have still been "at Harrenhal" when Ned Stark marched past early in the war (or if he went there on his way to or from Riverrun right before or right after his wedding to Catelyn).  

That would place Ned and Ashara together at just the right time for him to dishonor her "at Harrenhal" and for her to have a baby (or stillbirth) and then disappear "soon after."    

[Alexis-something-Rose]

2 hours ago, SiSt said:

This seems to me like the kind of offhand hint that GRRM tends to enjoy.

Always thought it was about RxL. Prince dies, his lady throws herself from the tower where she had been waiting for him.

[SFDanny]

On 9/3/2018 at 9:07 PM, The Twinslayer said:

This is an interesting theory and I will give it some more thought.  But one thing jumped out at me upon initially reading it. You quote a pre-ASOS SSM in which GRRM supposedly said that we would learn in ASOS that Ashara was "one of Princess Elia's lady companions in King's Landing in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar."  

The odd thing about this, of course, is that (1) that information did not make it into ASOS, and (2) we later learned via the world book that contrary to that old SSM, Elia did not live in King's Landing "in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar":  rather, Elia lived on Dragonstone during that time, as indicated in a passage you cite from the world book. 

For purposes of your theory, I think this creates some confusion about where Ashara was between the tournament at Harrenhal and the time she jumped off the Palestone Tower that is not reflected in your analysis here.  Do you see that as an issue?  In my view, all it means is that that old SSM was probably an off-hand remark and that none of it should be taken very seriously.  The information about Ashara contained in the world book is more likely to be accurate.  

The Twinslayer, I hesitated to respond to this because I'm sure I already let my disagreements be clearly known on your misinterpretation of the SSM in question, and saw no reason to repeat them. However, for those who didn't read my earlier responses to your idea here, let me restate my thinking again.

Martin often makes editorial changes about which book whole chapters will appear. He makes changes about when he will release bits of information as well. And he sometimes flat out changes his mind about where the story will go. Any long time reader of George's works and his public statements will know this. So in evaluating the worth of old public statements, written or oral, we, the readers, need to keep that all in mind. What Martin said years ago may well not be true today for many reasons, and we should look to see if we can verify old statements by looking for either newer ones that contradict the older ones, or, even better, newer published material that contradict or confirm the older material.

If that was what you did with this particular SSM then I would applaud your efforts. But instead what you do is distort what newer material says and what the the old SSM says in order to discredit a different section of this SSM. To be sure, the planned volume of publication of the material telling us Ashara was one of Elia's lady companions changed from A Storm of Swords to A Dance with Dragons, but that editorial decision has nothing to do with the continuing validity of the content of what Martin said in 1999.

But more importantly, what you do is seize on what you see as a contradiction between one part of Martin's remarks in 1999 and use that to say all of the old SSM is now wrong. Nothing could be further from the truth.

1. Was Ashara "one of Princess Elia’s lady companions in King’s Landing in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar" as the SSM in question states? Clearly the answer to Ashara being a Lady companion is correct as Ser Barristan tells us in his comparison of Elia to Ashara saying that "[h]is choice would have been a young maiden not long at court, one of Elia's companions ... though compared to Ashara Dayne, the Dornish princess was a kitchen drab."                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               So, the main content of Ashara's relationship spoken of in 1999 is verified in the text of A Dance with Dragons, not contradicted by it. It is only the "in King's Landing in the first few years after Elia married Rhaegar" part of this you find is somehow proven wrong. But even this pedantic nitpick is wrong as a proof even part of the SSM is invalid. What The World of Ice & Fire tells us is not what you say it does. The section about Rhaegar deciding to take up residence in Dragonstone and move from King's Landing doesn't say how long after the marriage the move takes place, nor does it say the two never comes back to King's Landing during this time. In fact, it tells us that they do. When they bring Rhaenys, at an unknown age, back to King's Landing to be presented to Aerys and Rhaella. In short, we have evidence that Elia and Rhaegar, along with Ashara presumably, are in King's Landing in 280 AC and likely back in King's Landing for a time in 281 AC. Which would make the 1999 statement still true. One shouldn't mistake the word "in" for the phrase "for the duration of," but you do. Now, that doesn't mean Martin didn't make a change here. He may well have decided at a later date to have this move to Dragonstone take place. It's just that your "evidence" doesn't show it, anymore than it invalidates this content or any other content of the old SSM.
2. The old SSM also clearly states that Ashara is not "nailed to the floor in Starfall" and this whole essay is an example of how the books continue to verify the possibility Ashara travels and is not stuck in Starfall. There are very few points that we can say Ashara was in this place at this time between Harrenhal and her supposed suicide in Starfall. So, this then is another part of the SSM that rather than provide evidence that it is no longer valid, you provide nothing to contradict what Martin said in 1999. Certainly your distortion of Ashara's time in King's Landing doesn't have anything to do with where she was between Harrenhal and when she supposedly "jumped off the Palestone Tower."
3. Lastly, let's not leave out the real reason for your crusade against this old SSM. It has nothing to do with how long Ashara was in King's Landing, nor what she did after Harrenhal, and it doesn't have anything to do any changes in which book this information appears. It is all because this is the same old SSM in which Martin famously answers the question about the age difference between Jon and Daenerys, saying "no, Jon was not born 'more than a year' before Dany ... probably eight or nine months or thereabouts." The effort centers around discrediting this statement by George and any suspicion you can cast on its validity, no matter how you distort the text, or how you tie unrelated content to each other to do so. What you need to do, The Twinslayer, is show how this statement is no longer true. And here is the irony in your effort. The more information we have about Jon and Dany's namedays shows that they fall within the timeframe George spoke of in 1999. And the more we know about this topic the more we know that efforts to place Jon's conception during Ned's trip to Starfall is ridiculous and contradicted by the evidence.

Twinslayer, I have no problem discussing this last question - in an appropriate thread - but be honest about what your are doing, and don't distort evidence to try to make it say something it doesn't.

[SFDanny]

12 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

@SFDanny

Thank you for elaborating on your theory! I appreciate the work you put into conveying your thoughts on the matter.

Thank you as well! I very much enjoyed reading your thoughts on this subject.

12 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I don't believe that Septa Lemora = Ashara Dayne, or that Ashara faked her death and is still alive today, or that baby Aegon was saved by anyone from the Sack of King's Landing. That said, I commend you for outlining a for the most part plausible case for your theory, that attempts to work within the framework of the facts we know, or think we know.

I would agree that it is among the possibilities that Ashara was on Dragonstone with Elia in early 282 AC, and that she was in Starfall by around mid-282 AC.

Since Rhaegar and Elia lived on Dragonstone, and since Ashara was one of Elia's companions leading up to the Harrenhal Tourney at the end of 281 AC, she was most likely on Dragonstone with Elia before the Harrenhal Tourney. And since Elia returned to Dragonstone and had baby Aegon by the start of 282 AC, just months later, it is likely that Ashara returned to Dragonstone with her after the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC.

And if Ashara was indeed impregnated at the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC, we would expect her child, whatever its gender and whatever its fate, to have come around mid-282 AC. And if an unwed Ashara impregnated at the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC began to show at the start of 282 AC, it would make sense for her to have left for Starfall.

My purpose here is to show a possibility based on a very sketchy framework of facts. As such, I certainly don't think a great many readers are going to leap up to say I have it all right. I don't claim to have it all right. There are parts I feel confident about, and other parts less so.

I appreciate the agreements we do have here.

12 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

But I think Selmy's admittedly sometimes imprecise recollection gives us reason to consider the possibility that Ashara's pregnanacy occurred quite a bit later than the Harrenhal Tourney in late 281 AC. Selmy seems to believe that Ashara threw herself from a tower soon after she'd had a stillborn daughter, mad with grief for the child she'd lost, and perhaps for the man who'd dishonored her at Harrenhal.

Ashara being believed to have thrown herself off a tower in late 283 AC or early 284 AC could hardly be called "soon after" a child delivered in mid-282 AC, whatever its gender or fate. And what of the man who Selmy believes dishonored her at Harrenhal? If it be Brandon (which I am not positive about), he died in 282 AC. Not sure what you think about this.

As someone who has lived about as long as Ser Barristan is supposed to have done, I don't seem to have as big a problem with his use of "soon after" to mean a year or two after. It seems life speeds up as we grow older. But this could obviously be colored by my personal bias, and a senile mind. I'm kidding about the last part. Or at least I hope so. But let me ask you, who is your candidate for the father of Ashara's stillborn daughter if she is conceived later than Harrenhal? Late enough to meet your definition of "soon after." Here we are talking about a child approximately the same age as Jon and Robb, I think. Was Ashara with Ned? Was she with Rhaegar? We agree a later pregnancy leaves out Brandon. Still my favorite candidate for the father of Ashara's child. Who is your candidate and why do you think Ashara was dishonored at Harrenhal if she didn't have a child conceived there?

12 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Perhaps Selmy's "soon after" is a poor recollection, or perhaps it is just a poor choice of words for what he knows was a year to a year and a half between these tragedies and Ashara's alleged suicide. But at the very least, it opens up the possibility that Selmy believes Ashara was impregnated in late 282 AC or in 283 AC, and believes the alleged loss of her child was much more recent than mid-282 AC when she allegedly threw herself off a tower in 283 AC-284 AC.

Which is all a long winded way of saying that it is possible that, if she truly conceived a child at some point, there is a possibility it might have been well after Harrenhal in late 281 AC. And if that is the case, it really keeps open the possibilities of when she would have started to show, and when she might have been required to leave Elia's services, whether on Dragonstone or in King's Landing.

I should say, I have advanced the idea in the past, that we may find out that there is a meeting of Ashara and Ned during this time. But, honestly, I think that may well be just Martin trying to keep a Ned and Ashara romance as a possibility for as long as he can. But you never know. Perhaps Ashara walked into Ned's camp under a peace banner one night and stayed a few days to see if a peace between the rebels and Rhaegar could be worked out. Total complete wild guess based on absolutely nothing, but Martin is going to have to do something more than he has done if he wants to keep the possibility of Ashara being Jon's mom alive. Which is a very long winded way of saying I don't dismiss the possibility. I just want some evidence that backs it up.

13 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

 

We can agree that we know Ashara was one of Elia's ladies in late 281 AC, and that she was at Starfall in late 283 AC or early 284 AC. In between, there are a lot of possibilities, no doubt by the author's design.

I could also agree that Varys wouldn't be the first person Rhaegar and/or Elia would trust the life of their only son Aegon to. But I think we must also consider the Varys we meet in the series, and the relationships he develops with our POV characters. Those relationships should warn us against assuming that Varys is 100% on this side or that side, even without taking into account that Varys has his own personal plots.

I think it is possible that Varys had as nuanced a relationship with Rhaegar as he is shown to have with Ned and Tyrion, and which he no doubt has and has had with other characters. As he tells Ned, he feeds Littlefinger choice whispers, sufficient so that he thinks he is his, just as he allows Cersei to believe he is hers, and no doubt this is the way of it for most or all such relationships he has had since coming to Westeros.

We shouldn't be surprised that Varys informed Aerys of Rhaegar's intentions at Harrenhal if he learned of them, whether it threw a wrench in Rhaegar's plans, or whether it was Rhaegar's desire all along to show the realm wha Aerys had become. But neither should we be surprised if we were to learn that Varys informed Rhaegar of impending things he had heard or was aware of either.

Varys is someone who will keep secrets when it suits him to, but will also reveal secrets when it suits him, or when he feels he has no choice. It is something he is also very honest about when confronted by a Ned or a Tyrion about his seemingly two-faced nature. He is willing to keep Tyrion's secret of Shae, but admits that if Cersei were to ask what he knows of Shae, he would not lie to her.

Again, not to say that Rhaegar and/or Elia would have been quick to trust him with the life of their only son. But Varys is skilled at using the information he has acquired, including using the dangers their loved ones face.

He uses the danger Sansa faces to get Ned to make a particular decision that he claims will help save her life, even though in this case he is unwilling or unable to get her to freedom, or get Ned to freedom, as it will implicate him, and he is not yet done using his position to aid his own plots.

He is willing to keep Tyrion's secret about Shae, and is seemingly willing to help Tyrion sneak her away, but the danger to Shae while she remains is always present, as he acknowledges he will tell if asked. He eventually saves Tyrions live by sneaking him out, demonstrating his ability to do so, though this does prove he did so in the case of Aegon.

I agree with almost all of this. I think Varys is only entirely on his own side. He excels at playing other people against each other to his benefit. But, just as Ned never really trusts him, I think Rhaegar and Elia have too much experience with his work for Aerys to ever fully trust him.

13 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Personally, I think the story about sneaking Aegon out was created by Varys after the fact. An opportunity Gregor Clegane unintentionally gave him when he smashed baby Aegon's face in. But I acknowledge that the waters are just muddy enough to make Varys's story possible, if not plausible.

My version also has Varys creating a story after the fact. But again, my main problem with this being Varys's tale created out of thin air is the five-year gap in Connington's contact with "Aegon." I agree these are muddy waters and too many shapes of things beneath the surface can't be made out.

13 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

An Ashara Dayne might help explain how a Varys was able to get a Jon Connington on board, but I am not sure such a proof would have been necessary to get him on board. Whether there is an Ashara or not to lend credibility, Connington is faced with the choice to believe that Aegon is dead or that this child is Aegon. And just the possibility that he could be forsaking Rhaegar's son by refusing to take part could be enough to manipulate him into taking part.

As for the rest of the realm, many will have good reason to support AeGriff whether they buy the story or not. I don't think an Ashara or someone else to vouch for AeGriff's provenance is necessary. I suspect many of the smallfolk will buy it, believing Rhaegar's son was back from his perceived death to save them from the Lannisters. Most great lords have no good reason to sink with the Lannister boat. And AeGriff can win the support of the North and the Riverlands just by paying lip service to the restoration of the beloved Starks and the Tullys against the hated Boltons and Freys. And the Martells will be in no rush to support the Lannisters against AeGriff's claim whether they believe him real or fake.

Furthermore, I think securing Daenerys's hand was intended to make up for any credibility AeGriff or his story may be perceived by some to lack, in addition to absorbing the power she had acquired for herself. If Lemore = Ashara, then no doubt she would have been used to win over Daenerys too, but I don't think that plot requires an Ashara, just as I don't think securing Connington requires an Ashara.

The story of Varys sneaking out the child and him standing here today might not sound like the most plausible, but all of these people, whether Connington or Daenerys, are forced to deal with the questions of what if it really is him, and do you want to take the chance that it isn't?

Just some thoughts, I look forward to discussing further.

A couple of things. I think you make and error by assuming things were planned to be as they are in the aftermath of the chaos of the War of the Five Kings. Varys, and maybe Illyrio, have been planning this for 17 years and those plans have to include a way of persuading the Prince of Dorne that Young Griff is Aegon, whether that is the truth or not. The small people may be wiling to rise against the Lannisters, but that wasn't always the case. The noble allies of the Targaryens are not so powerful and organized after Robert's triumph to have much chance winning against six of the seven High Lords and their loyal houses. Chaos is needed, and maybe Varys thinks he can manufacture it at any time, but winning must include Dorne. At least at the start. That as we see, even in this most chaotic time, needs proof which Doran Martell will believe, because, as he makes clear, he only plays games he can win. Being Varys's tool to back a pretender isn't going to work. Varys must have a plan to persuade Doran that "Aegon" is who he says he is, and Jon Connington can't do that. Varys can't do that. And Illyrio sure as hell can't do that. Ashara Dayne can do that, if she can convince Doran that she smuggled Aegon out and raised him in the Free Cities, and on that riverboat on the Rhoyne. To me, she is the only person that can accomplish that. Ser Richard Lonmouth may appear out of nowhere, but he wasn't on that boat teaching Aegon his lessons.

[The Sleeper]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

A couple of things. I think you make and error by assuming things were planned to be as they are in the aftermath of the chaos of the War of the Five Kings. Varys, and maybe Illyrio, have been planning this for 17 years and those plans have to include a way of persuading the Prince of Dorne that Young Griff is Aegon, whether that is the truth or not. The small people may be wiling to rise against the Lannisters, but that wasn't always the case. The noble allies of the Targaryens are not so powerful and organized after Robert's triumph to have much chance winning against six of the seven High Lords and their loyal houses. Chaos is needed, and maybe Varys thinks he can manufacture it at any time, but winning must include Dorne. At least at the start. That as we see, even in this most chaotic time, needs proof which Doran Martell will believe, because, as he makes clear, he only plays games he can win. Being Varys's tool to back a pretender isn't going to work. Varys must have a plan to persuade Doran that "Aegon" is who he says he is, and Jon Connington can't do that. Varys can't do that. And Illyrio sure as hell can't do that. Ashara Dayne can do that, if she can convince Doran that she smuggled Aegon out and raised him in the Free Cities, and on that riverboat on the Rhoyne. To me, she is the only person that can accomplish that. Ser Richard Lonmouth may appear out of nowhere, but he wasn't on that boat teaching Aegon his lessons.

Arianne sample chapters

Why didn't she then? The Golden Company have made landfall, conquered castles and made contacts. Why was it Connington that wrote the letter to Doran? Doran declaring for Aegon apart from the military matters would go a long way towards establishing his legitimacy. This would be the opportunity for Ashara to plead to Doran either via correspondence or better yet visit him in person and to persuade him that Aegon is indeed his nephew.

7 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

Always thought it was about RxL. Prince dies, his lady throws herself from the tower where she had been waiting for him.

I had assumed that the song had been inspired by Ashara and wondered who the Prince was supposed to be. 

And by the way, how does Robert think Lyanna died? Or for that matter the rest of Westeros? 

[SFDanny]

21 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

I agree that he would have tried to use her as blackmail against the north (and Rhaegar himself), but I'm not sure he would have harmed her, although there's still that massively loose thread of the KotLT. One thing that I do tend to go back to is what did Aerys promise his son (if he promised him anything at all that is). You and I are in agreement that the reason he went back to KL was because Elia and the children were there. Did Aerys promise him that no harm would come to Lyanna if he returned?

Would he have harmed Lyanna? I think he would. Aerys has obviously proven himself more than capable of horrendous things by this point. So, I don't confuse him with even a desperate Theon, who I'm not sure he would have killed Beth Cassel. Aerys enjoyed killing people in terrible ways, so I can't think of anything that would stop him from doing the same to Lyanna if he didn't get his way.

The idea that Hightower is some long distance executioner waiting for Aerys's order to kill Lyanna if Rhaegar doesn't obey is a gruesome possibility, but it seems to me Ser Gerold understands Aerys's madness and is unlikely to do so. I would think Dayne and Whent would try to prevent any such action.

21 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

I do have a question, actually, because I keep seeing speculation that Ashara was at the ToJ. Would anyone believe that Lyanna, Rhaegar, the KG were holed up at the tower for like a year and beyond if the tower was named Watchtower #3 rather than the tower of joy?

I'm taking this question is given in a rather tongue-in-cheek manner? Obviously, Rhaegar named it the "tower of joy" and had his reasons for doing so. We don't know they are there all of this time, but I suspect they are for most of it. Who knows, the place may have come with spectacular views of the Red Mountains, and the Prince's Pass. Prime real estate, no doubt. I'm more interested to find out which local lord or lady had this old watchtower on his/her lands, and how much he/she knew about these secret visitors?

22 hours ago, Widow's Watch said:

And question #2 (and I'm not a huge fan of bringing in the World book), on the off chance that Aegon was spirited away from King's Landing, is there a chance that Aerys may have found out about this and used it as one of the reasons he decided to pybass Aegon and name Viserys his heir?

An "off chance"? Certainly, but I suspect not. The child in Elia's custody is still there. One would think it might be killed if a switch was discovered.  Just my guess. I do think Aerys's delusional mind had more than enough reasons (Dornish treachery at the Trident?) to bypass Aegon in favor of Viserys.

[SiSt]

3 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

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  Reveal hidden contents

Why didn't she then? The Golden Company have made landfall, conquered castles and made contacts. Why was it Connington that wrote the letter to Doran? Doran declaring for Aegon apart from the military matters would go a long way towards establishing his legitimacy. This would be the opportunity for Ashara to plead to Doran either via correspondence or better yet visit him in person and to persuade him that Aegon is indeed his nephew.

 

I had assumed that the song had been inspired by Ashara and wondered who the Prince was supposed to be. 

And by the way, how does Robert think Lyanna died? Or for that matter the rest of Westeros? 

It makes a lot more sense to connect this to Ashara, as "throwing herself from a tower" is her story. There's no mention of Lyanna doing anything of the sort. Could still be nothing, but I think it's much more likely a hint regarding Ashara than anything else. 

[Lord Varys]

I still see no reason why we should bring Ashara into the entire Aegon plot thing. Why did Connington or Illyrio tell Aegon the story about 'the Pisswater Prince' when that's not what supposedly happened? Why should we assume Ashara had anything to do with the entire plot?

Yes, it would have been a great idea to hide Aegon before he even went to KL - but what evidence do we have that this did happen? Where is the evidence that Rhaegar Targaryen thought his wife and family were in danger? Apparently they were safe enough so that he could abandon them and take at least two Kingsguard with him. Rhaegar also believed he would defeat Robert - he made no precautions for that case, either.

And when we look at Cersei then she did not make any attempts to get Tommen out of the city before it became very clear that the city would soon be attacked or besieged. That is the time when you send your children away, not when everything is still alright.

The idea that Lyanna was in any way an important hostage makes no sense. She always was effectively Rhaegar's hostage - he could have killed at any point throughout the war. But this fact didn't stop them from waging a war, just as it later doesn't stop Robb or Tywin.

We don't know anything about the family dynamics, but never mind how we spin it makes no sense for Aerys to allow Rhaegar to command his armies if he is actually blackmailing or threatening his own son. You don't give such a person enough power to break the hold you believe you have over him by force.

If Aerys trusted Rhaegar to lead his troops he would likely not have blackmailed him. 

On 9/4/2018 at 6:21 AM, SFDanny said:

On the contrary, I think I've given extremely strong reasons for Aegon's parents to want to hide him from Aerys. We have actual evidence of Aerys using Elia and Aegon has hostages. If that isn't a reason to try to get him away from Aerys, then I don't know what is.

But that only happens during an actual war. Back before said war started there would have been no reason for that kind of thing - and even if it was, Rhaegar does not appear like a man to make preparations for things he did not expect to come true (i.e. his own defeat and death, for instance).

The idea that a baby swap could happen at KL within the Red Keep and Maegor's Holdfast is also not very convincing - at least if it were done without Varys' help. Considering Aerys' mistrust of the Dornishmen one would assume that Ashara would not be granted much freedom in the castle.

On 9/4/2018 at 6:21 AM, SFDanny said:

May I remind you, LV, that the story as we have it has an Aegon the possibly dead prince, Aegon as the possibly fake prince, AND Aegon the possibly real prince. Whether the story needs them is not something I created. George did. I do take note of your vote for Aegon the dead prince.

I mean that there is simply no indication in the text whatsoever that anybody but Varys and Elia were involved in a possible baby swap. Why do we imagine there was another in addition to that one? Or that the story about that one is simply not just a lie and there was no baby swap whatsoever?

On 9/4/2018 at 6:21 AM, SFDanny said:

I agree the Pisswater Prince tale, as we have it from Varys via Young Griff, doesn't sound very plausible. Which is why I wrote this piece. I would not be so categorical about the fate of the "Targaryen ship" at this point in the story. The Lannisters have not shown their treachery yet, the Tyrell army and the Redwyne fleet are still in the field and at sea, and the walls of King's Landing are well manned and the royal fleet exists to evacuate the royal family if necessary. The defeat at the Trident is a severe blow, but the war isn't over until Aerys opens the gates to the Lannisters. Of interest here, would be if we knew Elia has knowledge of the Pyromancer plot. We don't know that.

Varys could have told her about the likelihood of the Targaryen ship sinking. He would have had all the information. And the question he would have put to her to get her child is that she either trust him on this or the mercy of the rebels (or Aerys II, when he decides that he doesn't want his city and throne to fall into enemy hands).

Aegon was definitely in more danger after the Trident than before and, like with Tommen later, under a considerable risk to be caught in a besieged city.

On 9/4/2018 at 6:21 AM, SFDanny said:

I think your time line is off, LV. The quote from Jaime makes clear that Rhaegar returning and Aerys using Elia as hostage via a message sent through Prince Lewyn, as well as Ser Barristan and Ser Jon Darry rallying the remnants of Connington's army all take place roughly around the same time. Where exactly the Dornish troops are throughout this time isn't really relevant. The message Aerys sends to the Dornish, and possibly to Rhaegar, is.

We actually do not know that Lewyn Martell rode to Dorne and raised those 10,000 men there. It is implied that Doran Martell called his banners and ended up sending those men up north when Aerys made it clear that his sister and nephew and niece would have to pay for his reluctance. Lewyn is sent down south to take command of those Dornishmen, but he is not Aerys' errand boy to Sunspear.

See above how the hostage idea involving Rhaegar/Aerys doesn't make much sense.

On 9/4/2018 at 6:21 AM, SFDanny said:

I don't think we know where Rhaegar trains his army. I would think near King's Landing makes the most sense for reasons of supply, but we just don't know for sure. We also have at least one example right before the Trident in which Jaime tells us of Rhaegar being present in the city. A judgement that the Crown Prince is not in the city and not in communication with his wife all through this period after Rhaegar comes north really has nothing to support it.

We do know from Jaime that Rhaegar is not in the city for most of his time after his return. That is why Rhaegar never learns anything about the wildfire plan - which is already in the making at this time. That is at least what Jaime tells us. He apparently comes back to court to take his leave of his father and mother and then commands Jaime to stay with Aerys.

But there doesn't seem any indication that Rhaegar spent much time with Elia and the children or cared to get them out of the city. If he had wanted to take them out of Aerys' power surely he could have made an attempt to send them all back to Dragonstone. Especially after the Dornishmen had arrived.

I mean, now that Rhaegar commanded the troops what should have Aerys done? Threaten his son with killing his family if he didn't comply? Wouldn't that meant that Rhaegar, in turn, had just said - 'Well, dad, then go and command your army yourself!' or 'Well, then I better make you my hostage now, dad. And come to think of it - why not present the rebels with your head? Perhaps then there is no reason for a campaign?'

On 9/4/2018 at 6:21 AM, SFDanny said:

We agree that Ashara does not likely deliver her child at court. Which is why I suggested Starfall as the most likely location for this event.

As to the role Ashara played during the war, let me just once again point out how wide open Martin has left the possibilities. I respect your opinion, LV, but we disagree here.

The problem here simply is that the only persons Ashara is, at this point, truly connected to in a meaningful way is Eddard Stark, possibly Brandon Stark, Barristan Selmy, Elia Martell, and Jon Snow.

Nothing in the text connects her in a meaningful manner with either Rhaegar or Aegon Targaryen.

And for the possibility of Ashara being the mother of Jon Snow to make even remote sense there must have been an opportunity for her and Ned to meet at one point during the war. The idea that anybody could believe Ashara was the mother of Jon Snow when his supposed parents last met at Harrenhal for the tourney makes not much sense.

That is why I think Ashara would be at other places but KL during the war, places where she may have met and interacted with Ned Stark.

The idea that she stayed at Harrenhal - with Lyanna, perhaps - after the tourney to give birth to her 'stillborn daughter' there could make more sense. Perhaps she would then even be a witness of the abduction, (personally) telling Brandon or Ned about it? And then later she and Ned actually meet after he comes down to the Riverlands with his army. Ashara and Ned then part when it becomes clear that Hoster demands that Ned marry Catelyn in his brother's stead and a 'heartbroken' Ashara returns to Starfall where she kills herself (or not) after Ned pays her one last visit.

In the end I, personally, find the idea that Ned actually did have a love interest other than Catelyn rather intriguing. No match had been arranged for him, so he was free to look for a bride.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

5 hours ago, The Sleeper said:

I had assumed that the song had been inspired by Ashara and wondered who the Prince was supposed to be. 

This is like Tom singing the Maiden of the Tree in Arya's presence back in ASOS, imo. But a song that a black brother (connected to Jon), singing about a lady who was a in tower and killed herself after her prince died, while Arya is sitting there, screams Lyanna to me, not Ashara. 

Quote

And by the way, how does Robert think Lyanna died? Or for that matter the rest of Westeros?

I think Ned would have told him she died of a fever. 

[The Map Guy]

Thanks for the fun read, but I have one big question: Ashara only has a few key mentions in ASOIAF, one was where she dances with a couple of fellas in Harrenhal....what was GRRM's purpose for that in your theory?

Your theory and other theories gives Ashara a political agenda and baby swapping capabilities...I just don't see that. Ashara is just a poor tragic girl who lost her stillborn child, her lover, and her brother. Ashara has purple eyes like Dany as Barristan suggested, but that is because Dany has seen the same thing. Dany also lost her stillborn child, her lover, and her two brothers.

 

17 hours ago, SiSt said:

He is a man of the Night's Watch, she thought, as he sang about some stupid lady throwing herself off some stupid tower because her stupid prince was dead. The lady should go kill the ones who killed her prince.

In regards to the song about the stupid woman jumping out of the tower, and Arya suggesting the woman should of went on a rampage instead...this is where Ashara and Dany differ. Ashara killed herself, but Dany went on a rampage.

 

8 hours ago, SFDanny said:

We agree a later pregnancy leaves out Brandon.

Well no...have you guys ever heard of the Dungeon Sex Theory?

IMO, GRRM wrote Ashara Dayne as Brandon's tragic forbidden love, which Ned discovers Ashara's story in Starfall. Rhaegar was Lyanna's tragic forbidden love, which Ned discovers Lyanna's story in TOJ. These were the lieS Ned brought home to Winterfell: Jon Snow as his own bastard, and the fact that Brandon cheated on Catelyn while they were betrothed. Ned brought home Brandon's sin and Lyanna's sin.

This version of Ashara+Brandon hits almost every point GRRM has mentioned about her so far. But it requires two plausible "what ifs":
- Brandon slept with Ashara at Harrenhal in 281 AC (answering a question the fandom have debated for years), but she did not get pregnant
- Brandon slept with Ashara again in King's Landing in 282 AC during his imprisonment (answering a question of THIS post) and she did get pregnant

With the little that GRRM gives us, we see Ashara as:
1. a beautiful young woman with violet eyes
2. have danced or talked with five fellas at Harrenhal - Barristan, Oberyn, Jon Con, Ned and Brandon Stark
3. a maid that was dishonored, possibly by a Stark
4. Elia's companion in King's Landing
5. Arthur Dayne's sister
6. Having a love story with Ned, recalled by her younger sister Allyria
7. a mother grieving over her stillborn daughter
8. a sister grieving over her brother's death
9. a woman grieving over her lover's death
10. committed suicide over a broken heart SOON AFTER her stillborn

1. GRRM just want to emphasize how beautiful Ashara, the maid, is...giving her a notorious feature, her haunting violet eyes
2. The wild wolf leaves a strong impression on Ashara after speaking on his shy brother's behalf
3. A not-so-single Brandon sleeps with her, dishonoring her maidenhood. And if the public found out, Ashara loses her honor by becoming a noble-home-wrecker
4. Being Elia's companion puts Ashara in King's Landing sometimes...the focus year is 282 AC, where Brandon is in the dungeons
5. Being Arthur's sister, a kingsguard, Ashara would have access to the dungeons. There, big brave bad-boy Brandon and the beautiful Ashara reminisce about their romance at Harrenhal the year before, and how any day could be the last day of his life. They have kinky dungeon sex, but this time Ashara gets pregnant.
6. Ashara lies to her younger sister Allyria about her crush (because that is what sisters do). If Ashara confess about Brandon, it would jeopardize his honor and her honor. (We find this out in Arya's ASOS chapter while talking to Ned Dayne. It's funny because Harwin mentions there in no stain in honor IF Ned Stark and Ashara were in love since Ned was not betrothed to Catelyn yet....but that is not the same case for Brandon....sneaky GRRM reversals). So Ashara lied to Allyria that she was in love with Ned because it would of been less suspicious and less soap-operaish.
7. Brandon's and Ashara's daughter was a stillborn in 283 AC, about the time Ned arrives to Starfall after TOJ
8. Ashara grieves Arthur's death over a misunderstanding at TOJ. Ned saw Arthur as Lyanna's abductor, and not Lyanna's protector. Arthur saw Ned as the usurper's second-hand man, and not Lyanna's brother. And they fight to the death over this misunderstanding.
9. Ashara learns from Ned that Lyanna was never kidnapped...which this misunderstanding led to Brandon's execution
10. With her daughter dead, her lover dead, her brother dead....Ned now asks Ashara to help take care of baby Jon Snow. Ashara looks at Jon Snow, the spawn of the misunderstandings that killed Brandon and Arthur, she could not handle it anymore and commits suicide.

Ned went to Starfall to return Dawn, and more importantly to acquire a ship to bring baby Jon Snow North. It was also an opportunity to see his crush, Ashara, even though Ned was betrothed to Catelyn. But there he learned about Brandon's dishonorable actions and how it was a dick-move to him and Catelyn. But this stillborn girl was his niece. At the same time, he cannot tell anyone, for the honor of his house...especially to Catelyn.

This "Dungeon Sex Theory" addresses every mention of Ashara in the books while keeping the timeline consistent, esp the "soon after" part....and its not that complicated or twisty. I just believe GRRM mainly created Ashara Dayne's tragic female character to the story to add more burden on Ned, who is trying to clean up after his siblings. Ashara is really for Ned's, Brandon's, and Catelytn's plot line. I really can't see Ashara with political ambitions.

Sorry if this bites your theory, but you were asking where Ashara could be between 281 AC and 283 AC.