What Needs to Be Accomplished

[The Piper Report]

9 hours ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

We have literally been told already 

 

Where?  When?  Cersei says it is Ashara Dayne.  Cat thinks its Ashara Dayne.  There are many obvious clues that point to Ashara Dayne, but clues also pointing to Jon being R + L.  Now it's more than likely he is the son of R + L, but we haven't "literally" been told that.

Unless you are referring to the show, but this thread isn't about the show.

[Victor Newman]

A lot will happen in the next two books but be prepared for many questions to remain unanswered.  Every material that has been released is stingy on confirmation.  They raised more questions than gave answers.   I am convinced that the different stories do not have to converge.   I believe the stories below will have a resolution.

Dothraki Sea

We last left our young hero with her dragon in the middle of the Dothraki Sea.  Surrounded by an unfriendly khalasar no less.  The prophecy says the stallion will be the khal of khals and the entire world will be his khalasar.  We now know that the maegi murdered Rhaego but that did not prevent the prophecy from coming true.  It will happen with a khaleesi instead of a khal though and with a dragon instead of a horse.  A dragon is much superior to a horse.  Khaleesi will go to the mother of mountains and win over the crones.  She will bind the khalasars to her will and use them to stop the slave trade.  Irony is an important literary tool in this series.   Jorah the slaver is now helping fight against the masters.  Ned Stark cut off Gared's head and he in turn lost his own head.  The biggest irony here is the biggest slavers in the world will be used to stop the slave trade, the Dothraki.

Battle for Mereen

I've got a bad feeling about this.  Superior numbers trump superior strategy, in my opinion.  The masters have the numbers on land and on the sea.  The good guys have enemies in their backs, the Harpy within the city walls and the fickle sell swords.  The masters have a lot of gold to buy the sell swords to their side.  I think Ser Barristan and Victarion will die in this battle.   The Shavepate will manage to hold the city together until his queen arrives with her Dothraki.  This will not happen until near the end of  book 6.  

Penny and Tyrion

Will survive the battle for Mereen.  The sell swords are more interested in gold.  They will seize the first ships they can and sail for Westeros.  

Battle for Winterfell

We already know what happened.  Roose Bolton won.  We will get flashbacks of that battle.  Ramsay will flay the wildlings.  

Castle Black

Bowen Marsh and the watch will put down Wun.  They will take Jon's corpse and put him in the cells temporarily.  Jon is dead.  He might warg into his wolf and carry on like that from then on.  There is no going back to human form.  The wildlings will leave the wall to confront the Boltons.  

King's Landing

Trial by combat.  The mountain will fight somebody.  I don't know who but he will be invincible.  His helm will come off during the battle and we will see Robb Stark's head sewn on his shoulders.  The Sand Snakes will go berserk and assassinate the mountain after the trial.  

North of the Wall

Brynden Rivers will try to convince Bran to stay but fail.  Bran wants to go back to Winterfell to be with the wolf pack.  Jon is now a wolf.  Arya will probably be one too by this time.  Jojen and Meera died in the cave.  Hodor carries Bran back to Winterfell, somehow, some way.

Citadel

Samwell learns just enough about the Long Night.  He leaves with Gillie to go back to the wall.  Little Sam is with them.  To hell with Jon's orders, right.  They will make it out or they will get captured by Euron.  

Braavos

The FM fail to catch Arya before she got on a boat for Westeros.  She makes it to the Riverlands and kills a few more Freys before they kill her.  She wargs into Nymeria.  Maybe she meets Stoneheart, maybe not.

Riverlands

Jaime and Brienne die.  The Brotherhood kills them.  

Dorne

Will side with Aegon.  Aegon will fight the forces of the Lannisters and the Tyrells.  And lose.  

The final outcome is hard to predict, but this is how I see things playing out.

1. Dany will leave the bulk of the Dothraki to enforce her ban on the slave trade and promise to return.  She will take her Unsullied and a few Dothraki khalasar to Westeros.  Her dragons will be with her.  Westeros will be in the middle of winter by this time.  All they can do is kill the white walkers and their wights.  They will not be able to change the weather.  
2. This is a story where the families and the political factions hate each other for good reasons.  Those dicks preaching northern independence, Iron Island independence, Dornish revenge, hoarding grain for profit, are the enemies of survival.  The Starks hate the Freys.  The Martells hate the Lannisters.  The Baratheons hate the Targaryens.  People are afraid of the Dothraki.  Westeros want nothing to do with the wildlings.  The reasons may be good with some but they have to put that aside for survival.  When it comes to survival, a smart Westerosi would reach out his and and welcome the Dothraki because he needs their help.  If they're stupid enough to reject the most powerful cavalry in the world, well, those dumbasses in Westeros deserve to get wighted.  And they will.  
3. Tyrion, Jaime, and Cersei will die.  Tyrion is the second betrayal and he will get cooked for his crime.  The Starks (Jon, Arya, and Rickon) who still have their direwolves will survive as wolves.  The Starks have a pattern of betrayal.  I believe they will commit their biggest act of betrayal against humanity in order to save their own skins.  The pack loyalty is strong.  They will side with the white walkers in exchange for their lives.  Daenerys will turn into a dragon, as foretold in Game of Thrones.  All that live and breath will flee before the shadow of her wings.  She too gets a second life in Drogon.  But she will fly back to Slaver's Bay with Drogon and rule, if she survives.  Bran will bond himself to the heart tree in the ruins of Winterfell and live on as the last greenseer.  
4. Most of Westeros will be frozen for a long time.  I agree with the prediction of a massive departure from there.  Destinations will be the Summer Isles, Dorne, the disputed lands, etc.  This is what gives the last book its name.  A Dream of Spring.  The story will end while it's still winter.  Daenerys will make it back to Essos, if she survives and finally embrace her role as the mother to the free people of slaver's bay.  Theon and Asha will go back to the Iron Islands and sit the Seastone chair.  One of them will.  The Sand Snakes will die during their fight with the Lannisters.  Aegon will be killed by the Lannisters.  Asha will defeat Euron with the help of Daenerys.  Ned Dayne, Big Walder, Wyllas Tyrell, and Robert Arryn will probably survive if they're smart enough to leave Westeros or at least move as far south as they can.  Daenerys will keep her promise and take Missandei back to Naath.  

 

[Dorian Martell's son]

6 hours ago, The Piper Report said:

Where?  When? 

The thing we must not mention. Admit it. You know it in your heart...... 

[The Coconut God]

5 hours ago, The Piper Report said:

Unless George changes something I'm convinced she will go to Westeros and meet up with Jon Snow.  The reason I think is, besides the obvious plot developments, is something that George said.  I can't remember the source for this claim, whether I read it in an article or heard it from the directors or one of the actors in the show, but during Season 1 of the show when George was on set quite frequently, he told the cast that (I'm paraphrasing) the main point of the story is to get Jon and Danny together.  Everything is working up to that.

So unless Jon goes to Essos, and for the life of me I can't think of any reason why he would, it seems evident Dany will go to Westeros.  Now, whether she and Jon will hook up is a different story (hook up as in hook up, not meet up).  I like to think they were going to initially, but GRRM may be getting burnt out with the story and wants it to end so he might completely remove that particular subplot.

George did intend Dany to reach Westeros initially. He did make a comment about it, but that was in 2001, when he said A Dance with Dragons was supposed to be about her arrival in Westeros. This was before he decided to drop the 5 year gap and do the AFFC split. Obviously, in the actual ADwD Dany gets nowhere near Westeros and Essos gets more development than ever before; with George recently confirming that he is still planning to finish in two books, it is at least possible that he has decided to shift some locations around in order to make the story work without the gap without stretching over too many books.

Specifically, George had tied himself to Meereen at the end of ASoS by Dany specifically stating that she was going to stay there and learn to rule. In 5 years, it would have made sense for Dany to leave behind a stable city and even make some future conquests, but without the gap George would actually have to show her progress, greatly increasing the number of chapters needed before Dany would arrive to Westeros in a believable, thematically coherent manner.

I believe that initially Dany was supposed to be in the process of conquering the South when the Wall fell and Jon came to her leading refugees from the North. Instead, she will be conquering Essos and Jon will be bringing his refugees there. Aegon was introduced to replace Dany's invasion, since an invasion of Westeros was also foreshadowed and required for a few other dangling plot lines. It is important to note that the main story beats are still the same for the main characters. It may seem bigger than the other changes done to the original outline because it's a change to locations rather than characters, but in fiction it's the same thing. George himself said that the locations are "characters" as well.

As to how and why Jon would go to Essos, here's a bullet point explanation:

• The Others breach the Wall while Jon is out of commission.
• Stannis attempts to fight them and loses. Keep in mind that without Jon around, the Night's Watch and Tormund's wildlings wouldn't work with him, and the northern lords may betray him after they get what they want from him (Winterfell).
• When he wakes up/is resurrected, Jon inherits an extremely shitty situation, with a very small, ill-equipped army and much of the North overrun by wights.
• The survivors, northerners and wildlings, retreat to White Harbor.
• Robb's will is revealed and Jon becomes King in the North; the wildlings agree to follow him as well.
• Ravens are sent to the south to warn them about the Others, but Cersei and Aegon are busy fighting and don't believe it.
• The Others attack the city and are desperately held back while the Manderly Fleet is filled with refugees.
• Jon leads his people to Braavos, the closest port, where he hopes he can claim his loan and use it to buy food for his people from the other Free Cities and maybe reunite with Jeyne Poole, who he thinks is Arya.
• Braavos grants him the loan, but doesn't allow them to stay in the city; Jon and his people must travel in land to find a place to call their own.
• Jon eventually encounters Dany as she advances west to conquer the continent.

[Three-Fingered Pete]

40 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

As to how and why Jon would go to Essos, here's a bullet point explanation:

• The Others breach the Wall while Jon is out of commission.
• Stannis attempts to fight them and loses. Keep in mind that without Jon around, the Night's Watch and Tormund's wildlings wouldn't work with him, and the northern lords may betray him after they get what they want from him (Winterfell).
• When he wakes up/is resurrected, Jon inherits an extremely shitty situation, with a very small, ill-equipped army and much of the North overrun by wights.
• The survivors, northerners and wildlings, retreat to White Harbor.
• Robb's will is revealed and Jon becomes King in the North; the wildlings agree to follow him as well.
• Ravens are sent to the south to warn them about the Others, but Cersei and Aegon are busy fighting and don't believe it.
• The Others attack the city and are desperately held back while the Manderly Fleet is filled with refugees.
• Jon leads his people to Braavos, the closest port, where he hopes he can claim his loan and use it to buy food for his people from the other Free Cities and maybe reunite with Jeyne Poole, who he thinks is Arya.
• Braavos grants him the loan, but doesn't allow them to stay in the city; Jon and his people must travel in land to find a place to call their own.
• Jon eventually encounters Dany as she advances west to conquer the continent.

 

You forgot:

• Jon encounters Arya in Braavos and we have our first happy reunion while also exposing the fArya ploy for what it is and giving Jon a rallying cry to build his claim and forces on.

[The Coconut God]

4 hours ago, Trefayne said:

 

You forgot:

• Jon encounters Arya in Braavos and we have our first happy reunion while also exposing the fArya ploy for what it is and giving Jon a rallying cry to build his claim and forces on.

I wish!  But I think George is too evil for that. 

I think Arya will be very apprehensive towards Jon and won't reveal herself to him at this point. Keep in mind she has no way of knowing the whole story. I doubt the refugees will be allowed to disembark in the city proper, so she won't be able to hear much gossip directly from them. She may learn about the Others, but probably not about details like Robb's will, Jon's resurrection, the Grand Northern Conspiracy, Stannis, etc.

From her perspective, it will look like he abandoned his Night's Watch vows to become king, and then abandoned Winterfell and the North to take his followers to Essos. Depending on how she finds out about Jeyne Poole, she might even think Jon was in on passing that girl as her, or at least was clueless enough not to tell the difference even though he knew them both.

Arya might be very disillusioned with Jon after he passes through Braavos. Maybe disillusioned enough to throw away Needle and fully embrace the Faceless Men... at least until later on when she will be sent to kill the tyrant Dany.

[Lady Rhodes]

11 hours ago, The Piper Report said:

Unless George changes something I'm convinced she will go to Westeros and meet up with Jon Snow.  The reason I think is, besides the obvious plot developments, is something that George said.  I can't remember the source for this claim, whether I read it in an article or heard it from the directors or one of the actors in the show, but during Season 1 of the show when George was on set quite frequently, he told the cast that (I'm paraphrasing) the main point of the story is to get Jon and Danny together.  Everything is working up to that.

So unless Jon goes to Essos, and for the life of me I can't think of any reason why he would, it seems evident Dany will go to Westeros.  Now, whether she and Jon will hook up is a different story (hook up as in hook up, not meet up).  I like to think they were going to initially, but GRRM may be getting burnt out with the story and wants it to end so he might completely remove that particular subplot.

Oh, I definitely think they will meet up.  I recall seeing the same interview, I think it was leading up to Season 7 release, perhaps? The hopeless romantic in me wants nothing more than for Jon and Dany to end up together, ruling Westeros. But that isn't how George works. So, I suspect that a) one of them will die, b)Westeros is a Macguffin for Dany and she either ends up back in Meereen, ruling, or decides to fly past the Sunset Sea, conquering other kingdoms. I think it would fit the "bittersweet" ending for Dany to get the throne, only to realize she. does. not. want. it.

10 hours ago, Victor Newman said:

This will not happen until near the end of  book 6.

He has already said that the battle for Meereen is going to take place towards the beginning of the book.  I think if he waited until the end of Winds for the Meereen arc to conclude, there would be people rioting with pitchforks.

10 hours ago, Victor Newman said:

His helm will come off during the battle and we will see Robb Stark's head sewn on his shoulders.

I don't agree with many of your points, but I think this is a possibility because, and someone correct me if I am mistaken, but I believe Joffrey ordered Robb's head to be sent to King's Landing.

5 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

but without the gap George would actually have to show her progress, greatly increasing the number of chapters needed before Dany would arrive to Westeros in a believable, thematically coherent manner

I think this was a big part of the problem between Storm and Feast/Dance.  Jon and Dany, specifically, have to become believable, formidable leaders in a relatively short span of time.  Tyrion achieved that believability in Clash.  Granted, I understand why he discarded the 5YG, but it makes Sansa's arc in the Vale, Arya's time in Braavos, Jon as Lord Commander, Bran as 3EC, and Dany as a formidable ruler a lot more...believeable? But you have the issue of Dorne - a response was needed after Oberyn's death.  Tyrion - what would he have been doing all of this time? Ceresi - all of a sudden she is a competent ruler? the Others and Wildlings - they have stopped tormenting the Wall?  It is like real life - life keeps moving, even if it would be nice for it to stop while the kids grow up...but that doesn't happen. 

[Three-Fingered Pete]

2 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

I wish!  But I think George is too evil for that. 

I think Arya will be very apprehensive towards Jon and won't reveal herself to him at this point. Keep in mind she has no way of knowing the whole story. I doubt the refugees will be allowed to disembark in the city proper, so she won't be able to hear much gossip directly from them. She may learn about the Others, but probably not about details like Robb's will, Jon's resurrection, the Grand Northern Conspiracy, Stannis, etc.

From her perspective, it will look like he abandoned his Night's Watch vows to become king, and then abandoned Winterfell and the North to take his followers to Essos. Depending on how she finds out about Jeyne Poole, she might even think Jon was in on passing that girl as her, or at least was clueless enough not to tell the difference even though he knew them both.

Arya might be very disillusioned with Jon after he passes through Braavos. Maybe disillusioned enough to throw away Needle and fully embrace the Faceless Men... at least until later on when she will be sent to kill the tyrant Dany.

 

Wow! You are one cruel god, Coco.

[The Coconut God]

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I think this was a big part of the problem between Storm and Feast/Dance.  Jon and Dany, specifically, have to become believable, formidable leaders in a relatively short span of time.  Tyrion achieved that believability in Clash.  Granted, I understand why he discarded the 5YG, but it makes Sansa's arc in the Vale, Arya's time in Braavos, Jon as Lord Commander, Bran as 3EC, and Dany as a formidable ruler a lot more...believeable? But you have the issue of Dorne - a response was needed after Oberyn's death.  Tyrion - what would he have been doing all of this time? Ceresi - all of a sudden she is a competent ruler? the Others and Wildlings - they have stopped tormenting the Wall?  It is like real life - life keeps moving, even if it would be nice for it to stop while the kids grow up...but that doesn't happen. 

This was certainly part of George's reasoning, yes, but taking the time to show how your characters learn poses a problem too, because then the narrative risks becoming unbalanced.

A major arc such as the War of the Five Kings took three books to play out. Dany's anti-slavery campaign will probably clock at two books and a half, if not more, and that's without counting the first two books, where you could still argue that slavery is an important theme in her story. If we look at character specific arcs, Jon has 6 chapters spread over two books between meeting Ygritte and sleeping with her for the first time. 5 more chapters pass until Ygritte is killed. Jaime also spent 6 chapters developing his relationship with Brienne to the point where he went back to save her from the bear pit; 9 chapters until he gives her Oathkeeper (I'd say 10 for that arc, because Catelyn's chapter where she frees him is relevant too). Considering that no character except Ned has ever had more than 12 chapters per book, and the average is closer to 8, six chapters from a single PoV means 1/2 to 3/4 of a book to develop a relationship we can be invested in.

If Dany arrives to Westeros in the middle of TWoW, which is the earliest possible (and can only be done by cutting plot points in Essos, if they are not cut it will be the end of TWoW), that leaves a maximum of one book and a half for Dany vs Ironborn. Dany vs Aegon, Dany + Jon and Fire vs Ice. Those are way too many plot lines, and way too little narrative space for even one of them be on par with the Wot5K. What's the point of introducing Aegon as an antagonist for Dany if their conflict will be established, reach its climax and conclude over 1/3 of a book? How invested will we be in a Jon + Dany relationship (either alliance or romance) if it happens over 3 chapters from each of them, 1. "Hello, nice to meet you", 2. "Let's have a chat", 3. "I love you/trust you"? Even Dany's relationship with Daario was deeper than that. How will the story as a whole feel if a character spends a book and a half learning a lesson and 1/3 of a book completing the arc for which that lesson was required? I am skeptical of all.

This is why I think the best solution would be for Dany to have a single arc over ADwD, TWoW and ADoS, the Conquest of Essos, with her relationship with Jon developing over approximately a book and a half. The other plot lines are red herrings. Aegon is a foil for Cersei and the south, Euron is an antagonist for Sansa, the dornish and other future refugees, and the Others will ravage Westeros, but Dany will not get to fight them.

[The Coconut God]

21 minutes ago, Trefayne said:

Wow! You are one cruel god, Coco.

Thank you, I try! 

[Lady Rhodes]

56 minutes ago, The Coconut God said:

This was certainly part of George's reasoning, yes, but taking the time to show how your characters learn poses a problem too, because then the narrative risks becoming unbalanced.

A major arc such as the War of the Five Kings took three books to play out. Dany's anti-slavery campaign will probably clock at two books and a half, if not more, and that's without counting the first two books, where you could still argue that slavery is an important theme in her story. If we look at character specific arcs, Jon has 6 chapters spread over two books between meeting Ygritte and sleeping with her for the first time. 5 more chapters pass until Ygritte is killed. Jaime also spent 6 chapters developing his relationship with Brienne to the point where he went back to save her from the bear pit; 9 chapters until he gives her Oathkeeper (I'd say 10 for that arc, because Catelyn's chapter where she frees him is relevant too). Considering that no character except Ned has ever had more than 12 chapters per book, and the average is closer to 8, six chapters from a single PoV means 1/2 to 3/4 of a book to develop a relationship we can be invested in.

If Dany arrives to Westeros in the middle of TWoW, which is the earliest possible (and can only be done by cutting plot points in Essos, if they are not cut it will be the end of TWoW), that leaves a maximum of one book and a half for Dany vs Ironborn. Dany vs Aegon, Dany + Jon and Fire vs Ice. Those are way too many plot lines, and way too little narrative space for even one of them be on par with the Wot5K. What's the point of introducing Aegon as an antagonist for Dany if their conflict will be established, reach its climax and conclude over 1/3 of a book? How invested will we be in a Jon + Dany relationship (either alliance or romance) if it happens over 3 chapters from each of them, 1. "Hello, nice to meet you", 2. "Let's have a chat", 3. "I love you/trust you"? Even Dany's relationship with Daario was deeper than that. How will the story as a whole feel if a character spends a book and a half learning a lesson and 1/3 of a book completing the arc for which that lesson was required? I am skeptical of all.

This is why I think the best solution would be for Dany to have a single arc over ADwD, TWoW and ADoS, the Conquest of Essos, with her relationship with Jon developing over approximately a book and a half. The other plot lines are red herrings. Aegon is a foil for Cersei and the south, Euron is an antagonist for Sansa, the dornish and other future refugees, and the Others will ravage Westeros, but Dany will not get to fight them.

Hmm. I agree with what you are saying in regards to rushed arcs, but I am not sure if I am believing your end point about the Conquest of Essos. I think that is going to happen quicker than you think - my rationale being that the biggest part of an arc is for the character to get to a certain point emotionally - I think that is what Dance was all about. 1/2-3/4 of winds will be her achieving Fire and Blood incarnate, 1/4 to 1/2 half her starting to see things differently that continues on into Dream.

[The Piper Report]

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Hmm. I agree with what you are saying in regards to rushed arcs, but I am not sure if I am believing your end point about the Conquest of Essos. I think that is going to happen quicker than you think - my rationale being that the biggest part of an arc is for the character to get to a certain point emotionally - I think that is what Dance was all about. 1/2-3/4 of winds will be her achieving Fire and Blood incarnate, 1/4 to 1/2 half her starting to see things differently that continues on into Dream.

It's also possible that once Dany returns to Meeran (sp? I listen to audiobooks, don't read them) the city could basically be destroyed from the battle with nothing to rule over and fix.  She could very well think that her attempt here was fruitless and all of her closest advisors (Selmy) are dead from her own failed desire to change things here, and she would then choose to go to Westeros.

Although Coconut God has some good points, and it definitely opens the door for the story to end up in Essos, I think the beginning of the story and end of the story will be symbolically connected.  The main point of the story was the Iron Throne.  GRRM took it from the War of the Roses.  The first book was called a Game of Thrones.  Fire and Blood tells the Targaryen Dynasty on the Iron Throne.  Westeros is the Iron Throne and the Iron Throne is Westeros.  I can't see the Iron Throne not being used in some fashion for the end of the story.

I do think it's possible that Westeros may be destroyed by the end the series, and all of the main character board ships to Essos to try and find a nice place to live.  That could also be bitterweet.  Dany has to head back to Essos due to Westeros being destroyed.  She knows she has to try to end slavery once again but she knows she failed last time.  She's hoping this time she will be successful but she doesn't know for sure and we the readers don't know.

The book ends with all surviving main characters heading to a new continent, their futures unknown to them and us; with only the hope that they will find happiness and accomplish what they desire

[The Mother of The Others]

5 hours ago, The Coconut God said:

From Arya's perspective, it will look like he abandoned his Night's Watch vows to become king, and then abandoned Winterfell and the North 

Oooooooooh!   [Pointing like a first grader].     Jon's in trouble!    That's a new angle.    But part of Arya's deal is she examines, so Jon should pass her test.

 

Ha!  When the exodus leaves from westeros and heads to the summer isles, that exile in king Robert's court will finally have the troop support he's been asking for all along.  In a way.  That's a good gag to end on after a horrific finale.

[The Coconut God]

4 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Hmm. I agree with what you are saying in regards to rushed arcs, but I am not sure if I am believing your end point about the Conquest of Essos. I think that is going to happen quicker than you think - my rationale being that the biggest part of an arc is for the character to get to a certain point emotionally - I think that is what Dance was all about. 1/2-3/4 of winds will be her achieving Fire and Blood incarnate, 1/4 to 1/2 half her starting to see things differently that continues on into Dream.

I'm not sure how much shorter it can get. Sure, the emotional arc is the most important, but there are plot elements that were set up already, and there's the question of pacing to simulate the passage of time. Even if we don't get any PoVs from Camp Dany for their travel from Meereen to Westeros, we still need a good chunk of chapters from other characters to create a sort of "time gap" in between. If we eliminate a number of chapters that were spread out throughout the book, we won't be able to to assign as many consecutive chapters to those characters at a later point in the story.

Let's apply your original question to Dany's campaign, as it was left in ADwD. What needs to be accomplished there? WARNING! There may be some spoilers for you below if you didn't finish ADwD (but then again, the link I gave you earlier had some as well if you read it ).

1. Dany needs to recruit the Dothraki. This would surely take several chapters, 3 at a bare minimum, more likely 4. We need to find out how Khal Jhaqo will receive her, and she made him a promise in AGoT that needs to pay off. Then she needs to get to Vaes Dothrak, which was prophesied, and then all the khalasar must assemble before we find out how exactly she will recruit them. Ideally, this how would be a hint at how loyal we can expect them to be. Is she a goddess to them and they will follow her blindly like the Unsullied, or is there a catch that can create conflicts later? On top of all this, there has to be some sort of threat that creates tension throughout this min-arc, such as a khal or more who would rather slay her dragon and enslave her.

2. A resolution must be achieved in Meereen. While the Battle of Fire itself will likely play out while Dany is doing her thing with the Dothraki, she has to show up at some point and deal with the aftermath, since Meereen is part of her story. We need at least one Dany chapter to settle Meereen, or Slaver's Bay as a whole. I'd say as many as 2 or 3 depending on how things play out, but 1 at the bare minimum. We must learn what is to happen to her loyal freedmen and what Dany's feelings and concerns are towards this. Does she think the freedmen will be able to handle themselves? Does she intend to take them with her? Does she think Meereen is doomed, and if so does she feel responsible? Does she care? Is she going to leave any dissenters behind? Are the freedmen and ghiscari loyalists on board with her decisions, or do they think she's screwing them over? How did this whole anti-slavery arc impacted Dany, what does this say about her character, and how do we, as readers, view her now? A good resolution would touch on most of these questions.

3. How does Dany react to what the other characters have done? This is hard to escape because it's related to the plot. How is Dany going to react to Barristan dethroning Hizdhar? Will she believe he was connected to the Harpy? How will she react when whoever the Harpy was will be revealed to her? How will she react to Quentin's attempt to steal a dragon? Will she understand? Will she think he got what he deserved and throw her bones in the sewers? Will she anticipate that his death might cause her trouble with his family? Will she believe Brown Ben? Will she be happy with the role Skahaz has played? Will she continue her relationship with Daario if he is alive? How will she react if he's dead? How will she receive Tyrion? How will Tyrion earn her trust? How will she receive Victarion if he's still there? What will he do? How will she react if manages to steal a dragon and flees? How will she receive Moqorro and his red god? Will he offer her anything? Will he ask her to go to Volantis, and if so, will she refuse or accept? Will there be any peace deal with Qarth? Will Xaro negotiate it? If so, how will she receive him? How will she react to anything unexpected that might happen to the other characters, such as Missandei and Grey Worm, during the Battle of Fire. These questions don't necessarily need to be answered from Dany's PoV, but they're still part of the Meereen story and they still need to be resolved (mostly) before she moves forward.

4. What is Dany's new goal? Like the previous point, this doesn't need to take a chapter on its own, but it needs to be established (and there are only so many things that can happen in a single chapter if we want it to be coherent). We know she has embraced "fire and blood", and that might be expanded upon in her Dothraki chapters, but that's more a way of dealing with things than a goal in itself. She settles things in Slaver's Bay, how and why does she move forward? Does head for Westeros? Does she continue to abolish slavery in the Free Cities? Does she do both (the Free Cities are on her way after all)? What or who motivates her?

5. What about Volantis? ADwD established a lot of things about Volantis. There is a Volantene army headed for Meereen. Which side is it going to fight on? What impact will that have on Dany? What motives do the red priests of Volantis have? Do they want anything specific for their town, or do they just want to follow Dany wherever she goes? And what about the Widow of the Waterfront? Will she play a part? She told Jorah to tell Dany that they are waiting for her. Does it matter who will win their elections? Are all the detailed descriptions of Volantis and its surroundings and the things we learned about its people and culture meant to set up the place for some action in TWoW, or is it just empty world building?

6. What about Pentos? Pentos has been a part of the story from the start. Will it play a bigger par? Will we revisit Illyrio's manse? Will the foreshadowing about it being vulnerable to the Dothraki pay off? Is the Tattered Prince important, or is he just a red herring? What's gonna happen to him?

7. How will Dany react to Aegon? First of all, she needs to find out about him. Will Tyrion tell her? Will he be painted as genuine or as fake? What will Dany believe? Will she care? Will she rush to his aid, like Tyrion thought? Tyrion's cocksuredness when he said that, her reaction to Quentin and her new awakening as more than a savior makes me think she won't. However, will she rush to challenge him? Will she, on the contrary, be motivated to stay on Essos and expand her empire there, now that another Targaryen with a better claim has already gone to Westeros? Does she need to go to Pentos to find out who he is? Does Tatters know? If she does go to Westeros, how will they initiate contact? Will they parlay first? Will Dany plan to marry him? Will she threaten him with fire and blood? Will she claim he is illegitimate from the start, like Stannis did when starting his war? How long would a war last? How does it segue into the plot with Jon and the Others?

8. How will Dany react to Euron? He has a means to control dragons, a Valyrian armor and a powerful fleet. Will he challenge Dany's crossing? If so, there needs to be an arc about the conflict with him before establishing her arrival. Will there be a dance of dragons with Euron? Will they even communicate? Will Victarion warn her about him? How much of her forces will he cost her? Will the Dothraki keep following her if she gets them killed at sea and starts losing dragons in battle? Will Euron still be a thing afterwards, or will she kill him during the crossing? If the former, what part will he play? Will, on the contrary, Euron start as an ally and love interest for Dany? If so, how long will it take for their relationship to be established? What will they do together? What will break them apart? Will it cost her anything? Again, how will Euron be defeated?

9. How will Dany interact with the lords of Westeros? How will her conquest be set up? Will she attempt to win any alliances, or will she just attack and ask for submissions? Will we see Dany taking a stance relative to some of the houses we care about, big and small? Will we see some of these lords come to Dany to offer allegiance? Will there be a political fight for supporters with Aegon? Will there be scenes with messengers from Dorne, from the Vale, from the Riverlands, from the Reach? Will Dany visit any of these places? Will Tyrion be sent to the Westerlands to rally people to Dany's cause? What situation will the North be in when she arrives? How will her relationship with Jon play out? How many chapters would it take to deal with so many scattershot locations? Will she fight some of these houses? Will they stand a chance? What will she do with those she defeats?

10. What about the Others? As the series's Chekhov's gun, they have to take a meaningful part of the story, unless George cheats and they dn't show up until the epilogue. Will that happen? If not, how will the war with them play out? How will Dany learn about them? What will she think and how will it affect her priorities? Will she needs convincing to fight them? Will it cost her the crown or her dragons? Will she be alive for the resolution?

 

As you can see, these are a hell of a lot of plot lines and minor arcs, and I kind of skimmed them there at the end because I grew tired typing. I do not think there is room for all of these in two books, even with convergences. Something has to give. I think Westeros is the better choice, because the story would stay true to the plot lines established in ADwD, and the "loss" can be framed as a huge series-defining twist and turn into a win (unless fans are really hung on her fighting for the Iron Throne).

Of course, there are alternatives. He might chop up the Essos plot lines and use either Aegon or the stolen dragon as a motivating factor for her to leave. The Volantene can just join her with the red priests taking the city off-screen, and Tatters can just tell Dany what Illyrio's plot was and die, to spare her the trip to Pentos. Abandoning Meereen can be framed either as "they'll be fine" or as Dany becoming more selfish.

The hardest thing to swallow for me would be the Dothraki following her across the Poison Water without Dany proving herself in any way, like a bunch of mindless units from an RTS game, but I guess that's a matter of opinion and taste. George can probably get away with giving Dany a second convenient army who follows her blindly with no strings attached.

Another interesting option would be to remove Dany and Jon as PoV characters and tell their stories from other people's perspectives from now on. He could probably gain a lot of page space by cutting characterization and inner thoughts from the two main chars. It might even be cool not to know what Jon is thinking post-resurrection, but I still think this would be cheating.

[The Coconut God]

1 hour ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Oooooooooh!   [Pointing like a first grader].     Jon's in trouble!    That's a new angle.    But part of Arya's deal is she examines, so Jon should pass her test.

It might not be as bad as bad as Arya throwing Needle away and hating Jon, but I still think it would be more convenient for the story if she doesn't reveal herself this early. She was cautious with Bolton and it paid off then, perhaps now she will take the same approach but she will be wrong about it?

This may be a bit of a crazy interpretation, but the text suggests that animals (and therefore possibly wargs) can see through the faces the Faceless Men wear. Here's a passage from The Ugly Little Girl:

Quote

When she stopped to watch and listen for a moment, Tagganaro glanced at her without recognition, but Casso barked and clapped his flippers. He knows me, the girl thought, or else he smells the fish.

Casso is nicknamed King of Seals, and if the Exodus happens, Jon could be seen, at least symbolically, as a "King of Seals" too. We learned from Davos that the seals leave White Harbor when bad luck is afoot, and Manderly's merman sigil could be compared with a seal. Wildlings would also be dressed in seal skins, and the Braavosi recently freed some wildlings from slavers which they may use as a frame of reference for Jon's people, so that comparison might actually be drawn in the text.

1 hour ago, The Mother of The Others said:

Ha!  When the exodus leaves from westeros and heads to the summer isles, that exile in king Robert's court will finally have the troop support he's been asking for all along.  In a way.  That's a good gag to end on after a horrific finale.

Quite brilliant, I actually hadn't thought of that.  The Westerosi won't all leave at once in an organized fashion, so there may well be a group who decides to go with the exiled king. We might not learn if they succeed or not, but it would be a cool way to tie him into the plot. Let's just hope they'll be able to slip past Euron!

[Darth Sidious]

4 hours ago, The Piper Report said:

It's also possible that once Dany returns to Meeran (sp? I listen to audiobooks, don't read them) the city could basically be destroyed from the battle with nothing to rule over and fix.  She could very well think that her attempt here was fruitless and all of her closest advisors (Selmy) are dead from her own failed desire to change things here, and she would then choose to go to Westeros.

Although Coconut God has some good points, and it definitely opens the door for the story to end up in Essos, I think the beginning of the story and end of the story will be symbolically connected.  The main point of the story was the Iron Throne.  GRRM took it from the War of the Roses.  The first book was called a Game of Thrones.  Fire and Blood tells the Targaryen Dynasty on the Iron Throne.  Westeros is the Iron Throne and the Iron Throne is Westeros.  I can't see the Iron Throne not being used in some fashion for the end of the story.

I do think it's possible that Westeros may be destroyed by the end the series, and all of the main character board ships to Essos to try and find a nice place to live.  That could also be bitterweet.  Dany has to head back to Essos due to Westeros being destroyed.  She knows she has to try to end slavery once again but she knows she failed last time.  She's hoping this time she will be successful but she doesn't know for sure and we the readers don't know.

The book ends with all surviving main characters heading to a new continent, their futures unknown to them and us; with only the hope that they will find happiness and accomplish what they desire

Just because Jon Snow failed at the Wall does not mean Daenerys Targaryen will fail in Meereen.  She is much more capable than Jon.  Daenerys' campaign to end slavery will be successful.  Otherwise, she will not leave for Westeros.  Making slavery illegal and having the Dothraki enforce the law is a good start.  There will still be pockets of resistance but the fact that she was able to liberate so many people from slavery is a great start.  Certainly enough to inspire the slaves of Volantis to dream about rebellion against their evil masters.  

 

[Darth Sidious]

19 hours ago, Victor Newman said:

This is a story where the families and the political factions hate each other for good reasons.  Those dicks preaching northern independence, Iron Island independence, Dornish revenge, hoarding grain for profit, are the enemies of survival.  The Starks hate the Freys.  The Martells hate the Lannisters.  The Baratheons hate the Targaryens.  People are afraid of the Dothraki.  Westeros want nothing to do with the wildlings.  The reasons may be good with some but they have to put that aside for survival.  When it comes to survival, a smart Westerosi would reach out his and and welcome the Dothraki because he needs their help.  If they're stupid enough to reject the most powerful cavalry in the world, well, those dumbasses in Westeros deserve to get wighted.  And they will. 

This is so true.  

[Lady Rhodes]

@The Coconut God no worries! This is my second read of Dance. Nothing spoiled!

i have actually thought about this in a similar format to what you have suggested. A key thing, I think, is that once some plot lines converge, we gain more page per narrative arc. I know Martin has said that Tyrion and Dany are still apart for a large portion of the book. Let’s take Dance, though, as an example. It is 1040 pages. Split that in half - 520. (I realize this may differ depending on edition but it should be similar.) Tyrion has twelve chapters and Daenerys had ten. If we assume that the word and chapter count will be similar and that they meet halfway,  that would be 11 chapters within 520 pages telling the same narrative arc. And this doesn’t count other characters that may be introduced! So I think there will be a lot of pages to tell a lot of things. 

As far as Dany accomplishing things, I think it will go (assuming ten chapters):

1) capture and travel to Vaes Dothrak

2)arrival at Vaes dothrak 

3) meeting with dish khaleen

4) escape from Vaes Dothrak

5) return to meereen

At this point, I think most chapters are going to be from others perspectives and then we will have Dany ones interspersed.

 

 

 

 

 

[Curled Finger]

On 11/20/2018 at 2:56 PM, King Aegon I Targaryen said:

I think he knows some kind of dangerous information that is detrimental to House Martell. Maybe the man is of Targaryen descent, or he knows about what happened at the Tower of Joy or something. I don't doubt the guy is skilled with a sword, he is a Dayne after all, but I don't see how one man who is skilled at arms can be considered dangerous in the grand scheme of things. 

 

I always thought Darkstar was the most dangerous man in Dorne because he listened to Arienne's fool plan. 

[Euron III Greyjoy]

9 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I always thought Darkstar was the most dangerous man in Dorne because he listened to Arienne's fool plan. 

Well, I really cant argue against that. Though that would also make the likes of Arys Oakheart, Garin, Andrey Dalt, and Sylva Santagar the most dangerous men and women in Dorne aswell.  xD