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A Horse Named Stranger

UK politics: The tale of an old (Ber)crow who flew down from the cuckoo's nest...

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3 minutes ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Eh, the things I am hearing it is more up in the air than that. An extension to early 2020 could be agreed even if the UK fails to come up with a coherent plan (likely). It has not been decided yet, European Council might say Yay or Nay. A no-deal Brexit is not in the interests of the EU27, regardless of the fact it would cause more damage to the UK than them.  

May 2019 (EU elections) was a date given by Verhofstadt I think (could'Ve also been somebody else), pointing out that the upcoming EU election will cause some major headaches otherwise.

Just checked.

Of course the European council might have different ideas, but for anything beyond EU elections the UK has to present a way forward, and I am with him on that one. It's really bothersome to get dragged into the UK's domestic mess.

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Just now, A Horse Named Stranger said:

May 2019 (EU elections) was a date given by Verhofstadt I think (could'Ve also been somebody else), pointing out that the upcoming EU election will cause some major headaches otherwise.

Just checked.

Of course the European council might have different ideas, but for anything beyond EU elections the UK has to present a way forward, and I am with him on that one. It's really bothersome to get dragged into the UK's domestic mess.

Yea, I know Verhofstadt started squealing about it but it is not his decision. And he brought it up because it started to become a live prospect. 

 

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Be that as it may, but an extension just for the sake of the extension seems utterly pointless. Of course no deal hurts, but this can't go on for all eternity. I mean to stomach three more years of this Westminster Dumpster fire is tough ask.

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Why would telling remainers that a 2nd referendum would take more than a year to organise and run be a reason for remainers to accept that a 2nd referendum is not possible and give up on the idea?

Haven't we been told that the EU would extend the deadline if there were meaningful steps being taken to navigate the process, and if a second referendum actually offered remain as an option wouldn't the EU be pretty supportive of the prospect of the whole Brexit thing being overturned?

Nigel Farage thinks leave would win a second referendum easily, and if that's the case then wouldn't leavers be OK (but not necessarily happy) for a second referendum to finally put any remain nonsense to bed? So if remainers are keen for another vote, and the leaver-in-chief is confident of winning another vote, there doesn't seem to be too much political risk in having another vote.

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56 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Why would telling remainers that a 2nd referendum would take more than a year to organise and run be a reason for remainers to accept that a 2nd referendum is not possible and give up on the idea?

Haven't we been told that the EU would extend the deadline if there were meaningful steps being taken to navigate the process, and if a second referendum actually offered remain as an option wouldn't the EU be pretty supportive of the prospect of the whole Brexit thing being overturned? 

A referendum is indeed one of the scenarios in which the deadline would be prolonged. However there's atm very little appetite on the frontbenches of both major parties. So that could only happen if the backbenchers go indeed behind the backs of Corbyn and his shadow cabinet, and May and her insane clown posse.

But just an extension with the UK deadlocked and unable to move forward in any direction seems pointless (note a referendum is a move towards a direction). The EU elections are really a crucial imo. The seats have been reallocated under the assumption that the UK will indeed have left by then. If the UK is still hanging around in that weird limbo state halfway out the door, then what? As long as they are members they have a right to be represented at the EU parliament. So what to do? Cancel the reallocation and hold the election as if nothing happened (I was about to say happening, but then again, that is exactly the problem with the UK)? What if the UK leaves halfway thru the next term? And honestly speaking, nobody wants Farrage there for the next term, particularly after the UK left. So you can see the reasoning for saying make up your mind before the next election, we have no interest whatsoever in getting drawn into this mess of your making.

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14 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

He's asking for something not in the power of a British PM to grant.

There's very little this particular British PM has the power to grant. Nevertheless, she's happily entertaining people from all sides of the spectrum right now who are asking her for things she has no power to grant, including that she should rule out a hard Brexit, that she should unilaterally set a time limit for the backstop, etc.

Now, do I believe that Corbyn's precondition here is a tactical move to keep him away from this mess? Probably. I don't think anyone can doubt that I am seriously sceptical of Corbyn's approach to Brexit. But let's be adults. We do not need to adopt this overly literal, pedantic view of a political condition. We've already discussed what Corbyn means by this request: stop using hard Brexit as a threat to force through your rejected deal. If May were to respond by saying 'while I cannot necessarily prevent a hard Brexit happening due to factors beyond my control, I'm happy to do whatever I can to take hard Brexit off the table in order to make progress for the good of the country', Corbyn would have to accept that. 

But May will not do that, because she actively wants to talk up hard Brexit. It is her entire strategy. That is what is going on. We all know that. So let's not get bogged down in literalism. 

13 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Also, Corbyn agrees with sitting down with terrorists, like the IRA and Hamas, with no preconditions. But when it comes to the democratically elected PM of the UK he sets impossible preconditions. 

May has also set impossible preconditions. 

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Question: Can the EU impose an A50 extension on the UK to save it from itself. Ultimate humiliation and very unlikely I realise. But is it actually possible to do that?  Or do you need the leaving member to officially request it, can't see that option built into A50. But doesn't mean it's not an option. 

I realise i'm just at the stage that I want the 'adults in the room' to step in and do something and the only adults I can see are in the EU right now. 

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The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

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2 minutes ago, Nevarfeather said:

Question: Can the EU impose an A50 extension on the UK to save it from itself. Ultimate humiliation and very unlikely I realise. But is it actually possible to do that?  Or do you need the leaving member to officially request it, can't see that option built into A50. But doesn't mean it's not an option. 

I realise i'm just at the stage that I want the 'adults in the room' to step in and do something and the only adults I can see are in the EU right now. 

No, I don't think so. And it wouldn't make a lot of sense if there was. Leavers argued the EU is that hostile super power that takes sovereignty away from the national parliaments and effectively rules over the citizens of all those enslaved member states. For the EU to step in and say, you know what, we effectively forbid you to leave on your desired exit date, that is as self-defeating argument, if there ever was one. So the UK has to actively ask for an extension.

 

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Oh agree, it would politically be extremely distasteful for all sides. 

Like i say it was just a wish that there were some adults in the room with the power to do something! Guess not :-( 
 

A stockpiling-we-will go then
 

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56 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

 So the UK has to actively ask for an extension.

 

Doesn't have to actively ask though, just agree with it if the EU27 all state they'll give an extension. Only a pedantic point, but it doesn't have to be requested. Only agreed.

It's not much I know. Gives me small hope as this was the UK doesn't have the humiliation of 'going begging' but could paint it that EU are desperate and the UK is just being nice. That sort of spin. Maybe. 
 

 

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This AM Brit commentators have been patiently explaining to US interviewers why nobody wants Theresa May's job, no matter where their chair sits on the political spectrum -- so she stays. For some reason this seems too complicated for US interviewers to grasp.

 

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3 hours ago, Zorral said:

This AM Brit commentators have been patiently explaining to US interviewers why nobody wants Theresa May's job, no matter where their chair sits on the political spectrum -- so she stays. For some reason this seems too complicated for US interviewers to grasp.

 

I imagine Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn both want it.

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7 hours ago, mormont said:

There's very little this particular British PM has the power to grant. Nevertheless, she's happily entertaining people from all sides of the spectrum right now who are asking her for things she has no power to grant, including that she should rule out a hard Brexit, that she should unilaterally set a time limit for the backstop, etc.

All fair points, however, it does not really change the fact, that she can't promise there won't be no deal.

7 hours ago, mormont said:

We've already discussed what Corbyn means by this request: stop using hard Brexit as a threat to force through your rejected deal. If May were to respond by saying 'while I cannot necessarily prevent a hard Brexit happening due to factors beyond my control, I'm happy to do whatever I can to take hard Brexit off the table in order to make progress for the good of the country', Corbyn would have to accept that. 

Yes, that would be a reasoable response, I am not sure Corbyn couldn't refuse, or if he'd stomp his feet and claim it was insufficient. But that is a rather academic discussion of what would Jezer do.

7 hours ago, mormont said:

But May will not do that, because she actively wants to talk up hard Brexit. It is her entire strategy. That is what is going on. We all know that. So let's not get bogged down in literalism. 

True, however just saying let'S not get bogged down in literalism feels awfully dismissive.

7 hours ago, mormont said:

May has also set impossible preconditions. 

That's indeed a valid criticism. But again, if she had tried to get a feeling of where there might be majority in the commons instead of placating the DUP and her ERG nutters and selling unicorns to the British public (Lancaster and Chequers), she might actually have gotten some sort of deal that passes the commons. But then again, that would be country before party.

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20 hours ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Eh, the things I am hearing it is more up in the air than that. An extension to early 2020 could be agreed even if the UK fails to come up with a coherent plan (likely). It has not been decided yet, European Council might say Yay or Nay. A no-deal Brexit is not in the interests of the EU27, regardless of the fact it would cause more damage to the UK than them. 

Obviously, even this could not rule out no-deal. 

I'm pretty sure they'd extend A50 if it looked as if agreement was in sight, and a few more weeks were needed to deal with the subsequent legislation.

They won't extend it just so that we can argue among ourselves for a while longer

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There's a report of an impending general election in the New Statesman, although I expect if would result in a House of Commons very similar to the present one.

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21 minutes ago, SeanF said:

I imagine Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn both want it.

I suspect Boris doesn't want it until after we've actually Brexited, so he can blame all the problems on other people.

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8 hours ago, mormont said:

There's very little this particular British PM has the power to grant. Nevertheless, she's happily entertaining people from all sides of the spectrum right now who are asking her for things she has no power to grant, including that she should rule out a hard Brexit, that she should unilaterally set a time limit for the backstop, etc.

Now, do I believe that Corbyn's precondition here is a tactical move to keep him away from this mess? Probably. I don't think anyone can doubt that I am seriously sceptical of Corbyn's approach to Brexit. But let's be adults. We do not need to adopt this overly literal, pedantic view of a political condition. We've already discussed what Corbyn means by this request: stop using hard Brexit as a threat to force through your rejected deal. If May were to respond by saying 'while I cannot necessarily prevent a hard Brexit happening due to factors beyond my control, I'm happy to do whatever I can to take hard Brexit off the table in order to make progress for the good of the country', Corbyn would have to accept that. 

But May will not do that, because she actively wants to talk up hard Brexit. It is her entire strategy. That is what is going on. We all know that. So let's not get bogged down in literalism. 

May has also set impossible preconditions. 

Sometimes what people see as a threat is really a warning. If your doctor says you must undergo chemotherapy or your tumour will kill you, and you think other treatments are better for you, you don't say, take the tumour off the table and stop threatening me with it. 

May could say she'll take no-deal off the table but such words would be as empty and meaningless as your doctor taking the tumour off the table, unless she revoked article 50, which she probably needs the consent of Parliament to do and Corbyn is opposed to. 

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1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Sometimes what people see as a threat is really a warning. If your doctor says you must undergo chemotherapy or your tumour will kill you, and you think other treatments are better for you, you don't say, take the tumour off the table and stop threatening me with it. 

May could say she'll take no-deal off the table but such words would be as empty and meaningless as your doctor taking the tumour off the table, unless she revoked article 50, which she probably needs the consent of Parliament to do and Corbyn is opposed to. 

Taking No Deal off the table means taking Brexit off the table, since you have to revoke A50.  I expect that would require legislation.  The PM sending an e-mail to Brussels would face legal challenge.

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1 hour ago, Chaircat Meow said:

Sometimes what people see as a threat is really a warning. If your doctor says you must undergo chemotherapy or your tumour will kill you, and you think other treatments are better for you, you don't say, take the tumour off the table and stop threatening me with it. 

May could say she'll take no-deal off the table but such words would be as empty and meaningless as your doctor taking the tumour off the table, unless she revoked article 50, which she probably needs the consent of Parliament to do and Corbyn is opposed to. 

This... is not analogous, sorry.

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