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Paxter

Aussie Thread: Democracy Sausage

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Labor are in a quandary with the leadership contest: Albo and Plibs are decent retail politicians and are certainly a lot less robotic than Shorten. But they are in the left faction, which is not going to help things along in Qld. 

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Australian election: Pollsters unsure how they got it so wrong

Hmmm, I haven't really looked into it, but how wrong did they really get it? It sounds like the polls were saying (on a nation-wide 2-party poreference basis) it was 51(2)/49(8) to Labour. That's margin for error stuff. It ended up being 50.9/49.1 the other direction, which is totally within reality for the pre-election polling. And if it really was substantially the North Queensland outcome that made a difference, localised effects can be missed in national polling.

Greens get 10% of the vote and 1 seat. Bob Katter gets 0.5% of the vote and 1 seat. PV is better than FPP, but not by that much. 

 

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Labor are in a quandary with the leadership contest: Albo and Plibs are decent retail politicians and are certainly a lot less robotic than Shorten. But they are in the left faction, which is not going to help things along in Qld. 

The only thing the left needs to do is not talk about killing off polluting industries that employ a lot of their traditional base, but rather talk about how many jobs are going to be created in those very same communities. Don't tell coal-miner families their mining days are numbered. Tell them about how many higher paying, safer and more satisfying jobs there there will be in the community outside of mining. Let coal mining die a natural death rather than make its murder a central pillar of the manifesto.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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1 hour ago, Jeor said:

I suspect a lot depends on how much the Coalition can woo the Centre Alliance. If they can't, they'll have to cobble together deals with all the crazies and I'm guessing that will result in some pretty dodgy business. Probably not a bad thing if Morrison tries to govern as a moderate Liberal - it's popular with the wider electorate and has broader appeal (ala Turnbull), and for now at least he can't get outflanked on the right by anyone especially threatening.

There is still potential for a lot of people to be harmed by this continuance of the worst of the policies from their last term (I can't hammer how horrifically harmful robodebt is enough) but on the selfish front I know I'll be OK if this is what happens. What scares me is if Morrison's "this was a miracle" wasn't a linguistic turn but literal - he's a Pentecostal with pretty out there religious views and if he (and his church) decide that this win was god ordained to fight back against the "sin" of the last years like same sex marriage things could get bad for me. I think his majority is tiny enough and the senate too opposed for that to actually happen after the postal survey, but I don't like to ignore how much "divine right" can twist a persons thinking.

Hopefully he just wanted the crowd to respond to his "I believe in miracles" with "where're you from you sexy thing"

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Hmmm, I haven't really looked into it, but how wrong did they really get it? It sounds like the polls were saying (on a nation-wide 2-party poreference basis) it was 51(2)/49(8) to Labour. That's margin for error stuff. It ended up being 50.9/49.1 the other direction, which is totally within reality for the pre-election polling. And if it really was substantially the North Queensland outcome that made a difference, localised effects can be missed in national polling.

Greens get 10% of the vote and 1 seat. Bob Katter gets 0.5% of the vote and 1 seat. PV is better than FPP, but not by that much. 

 

Couldn’t agree more! The “end of polling” lines being spun ATM are really quite hilarious. People who predicted a Labor landslide are just looking for something to blame.

@karaddin: I’m not a fan of that aspect of Morrison either. But I still think he’s way better than Tony and that he will largely govern from the centre.

Edited by Paxter

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Apparently one of the betting agencies paid out on a Labor win last thursday. That's a pretty expensive mistake.

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Banks and Health Insurers surged on the markets today. Evidently expecting obscene profits for the next three years.

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Albanese vs Bowen? *sigh*

Surely the Labor Right has more talent than that!?

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Perhaps as a post script to Folau's Rugby contract being terminated, and him choosing not to appeal:

Quote

An Australian journalist has shared claims that Wallabies staff believed Israel Folau was looking for a way out of life as a professional sportsman.

Folau was officially sacked from his multi-million dollar contract with Rugby Australia during the week over social media posts that hit out against gay and transgender people.

Many assume the cross-code footballer will look to continue his sporting career in some form in the future, however Sydney Morning Herald chief sports writer Andrew Webster has suggested otherwise.

Speaking on Channel Nine's Sports Sunday, Webster said the former Wallabies fullback had grown tired after more than a decade in professional sport.

[Career] suicide by social media? The added benefit is that he's a martyr/hero to his congregation and millions of Christians around the world. Even if it comes out that he did this in part because he wanted out, he'll still be a hero.

It's possible, but I'm not sure it's very believable. Some people do retire at their peak, but I'd be more inclined to believe it was a move to prematurely end his player contract if it happened after the world cup. Folau hasn't been in a RWC world cup winning squad, and I would have thought he'd have liked to have one more crack at that before exiting professional sport.

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1 hour ago, Paxter said:

Albanese vs Bowen? *sigh*

Surely the Labor Right has more talent than that!?

I was really hoping for Plibersek. Oh well. It'll be hard to be less charismatic than Shorten at least.

Really don't know where Labor goes policy wise from here. Drop the economic stuff and just run on the environment & energy? I feel like it was the franking credits that did the most damage outside of Queensland. Though they lost the most in the suburbs which would be least impacted by that. Frankly, it feels like north Queensland is lost for the next decade. They should write it off and focus where they can win, but that's probably my bias showing and not a great strategy.

As an anecdote I had an interesting conversation with a security guard here at work. He said he voted Lib because Labor was going to raise taxes on him. This is a guy in his 40s, who I'd be very surprised if wasn't on the lower end of the income scale. Just goes to show that scare campaigns work.

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5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Perhaps as a post script to Folau's Rugby contract being terminated, and him choosing not to appeal:

[Career] suicide by social media? The added benefit is that he's a martyr/hero to his congregation and millions of Christians around the world. Even if it comes out that he did this in part because he wanted out, he'll still be a hero.

It's possible, but I'm not sure it's very believable. Some people do retire at their peak, but I'd be more inclined to believe it was a move to prematurely end his player contract if it happened after the world cup. Folau hasn't been in a RWC world cup winning squad, and I would have thought he'd have liked to have one more crack at that before exiting professional sport.

Australia aren't really in a position at the moment where they'll be threatening to win the world Cup. 

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4 hours ago, lessthanluke said:

Australia aren't really in a position at the moment where they'll be threatening to win the world Cup. 

Haha thanks for that drive-by post Lurky!

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1 hour ago, Paxter said:

Haha thanks for that drive-by post Lurky!

You're always welcome Pax! 

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Apparently over 11,000 people in Australia googled moving to New Zealand on Sunday, compared the the usual weekly average of about 2,000. 

You'd think that this was about the outcome of the election, but some of us have a different theory:

https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/crikey-its-not-their-election-result-thats-making-aussies-want-fly-coop-nz

Quote
  1. We can kill possums and even make them into pies in New Zealand where the forest-eating pests are the scourge of our native birdies. If you kill a possum in Australia, you go to jail. 
  2. The KFC chicken Double Down, currently only available in New Zealand. 
  3. Road cones. We have more per capita than anywhere in the free world.
  4. Kiwi rain is the best rain and the "new gold".
  5. The fibrous glory of our Vogel's bread.

But, while spiders, snakes and Australian accents keep most Kiwis at home, volcanoes and earthquakes tend to help Australians stay put.

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Moving to Auckland is already our long term plan and the main impact this election had on it is further locking in inaction on climate change. The increasing heat in Sydney is the primary reason we want to move, assuming we can when the time comes.

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Posted (edited)

Looks like Albo is a certainty now, with Bowen withdrawing as he knows he doesn’t have the numbers. I think he’ll be a decent interim opposition leader, but I’m not convinced he will be the right person for the job in three years’ time.

ETA: Hmm maybe Chalmers will run against him but I don’t think that will work either. Chalmers might be a shrewd long term pick though.

Edited by Paxter

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6 hours ago, Paxter said:

Looks like Albo is a certainty now, with Bowen withdrawing as he knows he doesn’t have the numbers. I think he’ll be a decent interim opposition leader, but I’m not convinced he will be the right person for the job in three years’ time.

What makes you think Albo wouldn't be a good PM candidate? He seems to be pretty popular and has had experience in government and political skill (presumably you don't become Leader of the House if you're a numpty). I would've thought he'd have as good a chance as any in the Labor party to win the next election.

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Posted (edited)
55 minutes ago, Jeor said:

What makes you think Albo wouldn't be a good PM candidate? He seems to be pretty popular and has had experience in government and political skill (presumably you don't become Leader of the House if you're a numpty). I would've thought he'd have as good a chance as any in the Labor party to win the next election.

I worry about him being typecast and easily dispatched by the Liberals as a crusty, inner-city lefty. He’s a standard bearer of the Labor left and I don’t see him being able to turn things around for the ALP in Qld, which as 2007 showed is the main Labor pathway to Government. Chalmers by contrast is more conservative and a Queenslander.

The main thing in Albo’s favour is that he connects a lot better with voters than pretty much anyone on Labor’s front bench.

Edited by Paxter

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23 hours ago, karaddin said:

Moving to Auckland is already our long term plan and the main impact this election had on it is further locking in inaction on climate change. The increasing heat in Sydney is the primary reason we want to move, assuming we can when the time comes.

Auckland is the most familiar move a Sydney-sider can make. But if it's not essential to move there for job purposes I'd strongly suggest you look elsewhere. If it needs to be upper North Island I'd suggest looking at Whangarei. It's city-fied enough that you don't feel you've left civilization behind, and it's got a far better climate than Auckland. But how small are you willing/able to go and retain your sanity? I'm a man of simple needs, if there's a movie theater, good internet and a KFC I'm happy.

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24 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Auckland is the most familiar move a Sydney-sider can make. But if it's not essential to move there for job purposes I'd strongly suggest you look elsewhere. If it needs to be upper North Island I'd suggest looking at Whangarei. It's city-fied enough that you don't feel you've left civilization behind, and it's got a far better climate than Auckland. But how small are you willing/able to go and retain your sanity? I'm a man of simple needs, if there's a movie theater, good internet and a KFC I'm happy.

We're city people through and through. I grew up in a semi country area (out in the country but culturally influenced by a lot of well off people that had moved from Sydney) so I know how I feel about smaller areas. Brook feels even more strongly and needs to be in a bigger city. We also derive a lot of emotional support from seeing other queer people around which tends to rely on being a certain size. 

I've seen the comparisons between Sydney and Auckland a lot, but one of the important ones here is that it looks quite similar to Sydney's climate minus 2-3 degrees, so the thinking is after 2 degrees of warming it will be closer to the Sydney climate we like. In what way is Whangarei's better? The issue with other Australian cities is that the ones with a cooler climate (Melb, Adelaide) already have extreme heat worse than inner Sydney during summer which will only get worse and will still be a bit too cold for me in winter. Hobart is too cold. 

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