If Ashara =Lemore, what's the sequence of events?

[corbon]

On 2/28/2020 at 8:20 AM, The Green Bard said:

Only under the assumptions you and OP make.  My scenario would make it not the case.  OP did ask for how we all think it could happen.  

Well duh. If the OP says "assume x is true. what is the sequence of events", then we actually have to assume X is true, for the purposes of the thread.

On 2/28/2020 at 8:20 AM, The Green Bard said:

I have, many times.  Clearly, that he tells Catelyn to never "ask me about Jon," so I agree that you are right in that, at least.  However, he forbids mention of her name, so to further conclude that Ashara wasn't part of his focus is presumptive IMO.  

That alone isn't what makes me conclude Ashara isn't his focus.
Ned himself indicates his focus is Jon. And Ned himself, in any conversation about Jon's mother, tries to shut things down if he can, regardless of whether its Ashara or Wylla or anyone else.
What you have in this conversation is an unreliable narrator. Catelyn is focused on Ashara, both before and after the conversation. Her focus bleeds through to the reader, but match Ned's actual words and the results with his own foucus and the pattern of his behaviour, and you see Catelyn leads the reader wrong.

Quote

That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother¹, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband's soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys's Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur's sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face.

That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. "Never ask me about Jon²," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know. And now I will learn where³ you heard that name⁴, my lady." She had pledged to obey; she told him; and from that day on, the whispering⁵ had stopped, and Ashara Dayne's⁶ name was never heard in Winterfell again.

Whoever Jon's mother⁷ had been, Ned must have loved her fiercely, for nothing Catelyn said would persuade him to send the boy away. It was the one thing she could never forgive him. She had come to love her husband with all her heart, but she had never found it in her to love Jon. She might have overlooked a dozen bastards for Ned's sake, so long as they were out of sight. Jon was never out of sight, and as he grew, he looked more like Ned than any of the trueborn sons she bore him. Somehow that made it worse. "Jon must go," she said now.

 

1 The whole paragraph is showing Catelyn's focus, before she asked him.
2 Ned shows his focus
3 This is what Ned actually asked her. Not about the name, but about the source of rumours that Catelyn has been listening too and led her to ask about Jon's mother. If you were to capitalise one word from that sentence to show the importance, it would be "where"' not "that" or "name".
4 Ned still isn't bothered by Ashara, so little he doesn;t even need to say her name. He wants the source of the rumours to quell them, and thats all. Ashara is insignificant.
5 The whispers stopped. Ned got to the source that he asked for and stopped rumours about Jon's mother.
6 This is Catelyn's focus again. Yes, Ashara's name wasn't heard again. But you can bet your bottom dollar that neither was any other rumour about Jon's mother.
7 Even after, Catelyn is still stuck on her own focus, misunderstanding Ned due to her own focused thoughts even though he told her explicitly what mattered to him.
 

On 2/28/2020 at 8:20 AM, The Green Bard said:

Further, my reading of it is that if the anecdote were ONLY to illustrate how he wanted protect Jon, then forbidding "that name" is counterproductive.  That people in the realm (Cersei, for instance) think Jon to be Ashara Dayne's son makes it a good alibi.  Forbidding mention of the (presumably fake) mother's name is counter to this alibi, yet Ned is adamant about it. 

You aren't Ned.
Ned's policy is to shut down conversation whenever he can control it. We see it with Catelyn and Robert. Ned never tries for alibis, he always tries to shut the conversation down. Rumours are out there that he can't control (Cersei, Fisherman's daughter for example) but when he can he tries to shut them down.

This is actually smarter than using fake alibis. Alibis can be disproven, which then begs the question of why would Ned lie.

On 2/28/2020 at 8:20 AM, The Green Bard said:

 If you believe that the house with the red door was in Braavos, just tell me now so we can either argue this, or if you are firmly convinced, then I can just stop now, and avoid that frustration.

I see no reason for it not to be in Braavos. The whole lemongate argument is extremely stupid. Yes, lemons are not natural in that climate, but they can survive in similar climates and rich people like exotics in their gardens and can afford the care necessary to help such plants survive.

On 2/28/2020 at 8:20 AM, The Green Bard said:

Mainly what I am saying here is that I still have no reason to think that the events that brought A=L to fAegon were any earlier than the ones that brought JonCon to the boy.  The rest of my tinfoil is merely explaining what she could have been doing in the meantime. 

Who cared for Baby (f)Aegon before JonCon was brought into the fold?
How was JonCon convinced that (f)Aegon was real?
How does the conspiracy plan to convince the bulk of Westerosi Targaryen supporters that (f)Aegon is real.

Those questions, combined, indicate that if L=A, she was in it from a very very early stage.
Note also that not only does JonCon call/think of Lemore as a "Lady" (westerosi noblewoman), she is clearly high enough in the conspiracy to argue with him openly at some length, despite her apparent low position and his apparent overall command.
I think Lemore is higher in the conspiracy than JonCon is.

[corbon]

On 3/3/2020 at 12:21 PM, lehutin said:

However, in Tyrion VI (ADWD), we have this:

On 3/3/2020 at 12:21 PM, lehutin said:

Lemore had changed out of her septa’s robes into garb more befitting the wife or daughter of a prosperous merchant. Tyrion watched her closely. He had sniffed out the truth beneath the dyed blue hair of Griff and Young Griff easily enough, and Yandry and Ysilla seemed to be no more than they claimed to be, whilst Duck was somewhat less. Lemore, though … Who is she, really?

At that point, Tyrion was no longer being a horny pervert.

Err, no.
Lets expand that out a bit.

Quote

Lemore had changed out of her septa's robes into garb more befitting the wife or daughter of a prosperous merchant¹. Tyrion watched her closely². He had sniffed out the truth beneath the dyed blue hair of Griff and Young Griff easily enough, and Yandry and Ysilla seemed to be no more than they claimed to be, whilst Duck was somewhat less. Lemore, though … Who is she, really? Why is she here? Not for gold, I'd judge. What is this prince to her? Was she ever a true septa?³

Haldon took note of her change of garb as well. "What are we to make of this sudden loss of faith? I preferred you in your septa's robes, Lemore."
"I preferred her naked⁴," said Tyrion.
Lemore gave him a reproachful look. "That is because you have a wicked soul. Septa's robes scream of Westeros and might draw unwelcome eyes onto us."
She turned back to Prince Aegon. "You are not the only one who must needs hide."⁵
 

4 shows Tyrion was still absolutely a horny pervert. 

On 3/3/2020 at 12:21 PM, lehutin said:

He was actively trying to figure out whether Lemore might've been someone else like Griff and Young Griff.

This is misleading. Remember earlier when Tyrion said he actively knew she had secrets and didn't care? thats been the case right up until this quote.
Her change into Westerois garb(1) instead of septa's robes, spark his interest(2). But its literally for a moment or so, he's literally just then deciding to think about her secrets and question her identity(3). Yet within moments, before he really has time to dwell on things, the conversation moves on and shortly after Tyrion is separated from the party.
Tyrion never actually spends any time thinking about Lemore's secrets. He goes from actively ignoring them, to suddenly deciding maybe they were interesting, to quickly moving on and losing contact with her.
 

On 3/3/2020 at 12:21 PM, lehutin said:

So I agree that it would be a literary cheat for Tyrion to fail to notice purple eyes, which are repeatedly stated to be one of Ashara's most striking and defining features.

And yet, the real world most famous purple eyed woman in history, often doesn't look like she has purple eyes unless she is using suitable makeup or accessories.
Ashara Dayne at court has almost no description. Just a beautiful young woman, who yes, has purple eyes, a distinctive feature when young and making oneself as attractive as possible at great parties and events.
Lemore is 20 years older now, has lived a very different lifestyle for nearly all of that, and is actively trying to hide her identity.
I don't agree that having Tyrion not notice purple eyes when he is both literally and metaphorically not looking is a literary cheat. It is in fact realism. Put Elizabeth Taylor, hiding her identity in relative drab, living a rough-ish life for a decade or more, at age 40 odd, and most people wouldn't have noticed her eyes being purple either, if they weren't looking for them.

[corbon]

On 3/8/2020 at 6:57 AM, Angel Eyes said:

Here's my suggestion: After Ned returns Dawn to Starfall and departs with Howland Reed and Jon Snow, Varys arrives with Aegon son of Rhaegar. He persuades her to take the identity of a septa and fake her death. Ashara writes a suicide note, tosses a pair of shoes out the window, and takes on the identity of Septa Lemore.

Thats more or less what I said, though without Varys on board. I doubt he could afford to be away from court at that time. 
Just add a little uncertainty. Maybe after Ned departs, maybe while he is still there, maybe even just before he arrived.
Maybe the babe is Aegon, maybe its the pisswater prince.
Maybe there's a note, maybe there isn't.
Maybe Ashara's family are in on it, maybe they aren't.

[lehutin]

7 minutes ago, corbon said:

4 shows Tyrion was still absolutely a horny pervert. 

Touché

 

8 minutes ago, corbon said:

But its literally for a moment or so, he's literally just then deciding to think about her secrets and question her identity(3).

Eh, even in your numbered sequence, there's 6 sentences that separate (2) from (3):

1. He had sniffed out the truth beneath the dyed blue hair of Griff and Young Griff easily enough, and Yandry and Ysilla seemed to be no more than they claimed to be, whilst Duck was somewhat less.
2. Lemore, though … Who is she, really?
3. Why is she here?
4. Not for gold, I'd judge.
5. What is this prince to her?
6. Was she ever a true septa?

I agree that he hasn't been thinking about this over multiple chapters, but at least the way I read that particular chapter, at that moment, Tyrion was seriously thinking about whether Lemore might be someone else just as Griff was actually JonCon etc. and he "watched her closely."

 

As for not noticing purple eyes, it's been a while since I've read The Mystery Knight. It's true that it took most of the novella before Dunk recognized that "John" has "Egg's eyes."

 

But that's Dunk the Lunk, thick as a castle wall. Tyrion is supposed to be far more perceptive.

[corbon]

On 3/8/2020 at 1:26 PM, The Map Guy said:

ANYONE WHO THINKS ASHARA = LEMORE ... EXPLAIN TO ME THIS:
"Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch. The storm lord drank down the knight of skulls and kisses in a wine-cup war. The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench. {Bran II ASOS}

Jon Con and Septa Lemore are hanging out with each other in ADWD. How come Jon Con never thinks about it?

Because of conspiracy discipline. He's been doing this for 15 years or so. But he knows, thats why he calls Lemore Lady in less guarded moments as the conspiracy starts to come forth.
GRRM is not ready for the reveal yet, but JonCon is no longer needing to hide it the same, so he is starting to relax the conspiracy discipline.

 

On 3/9/2020 at 7:14 AM, The Green Bard said:

IWhy is everybody so dead set against Ned having once had feelings for Ashara? 

Because that was the early setup, but its clear now that it was a red herring.
We got that idea right from the start, from Catelyn's memory, though re-examining that memory we can clearly see that we have been swayed by Catelyn's lens and not paid close attention to what Ned actually said and did.
Then we got apparent backup from Cersei, who was literally jus throwing possibilities at Ned without any knowledge.
Then we heard from Ned Dayne, though its apparent he is a cluesless little boy repeating gossip he doesn't fully understand (Ned was bonking Wylla while in love with Ashara? Not the Ned we've seen nor the Ned Robert grew up with) and is from an unrealiable source (its House Dayne, at first glance, they ought to know. But Allyria (almost certainly) and Ned (certainly) are just kids who weren't even born at the time. They don;t have any intimate knowledge of the relationships they describe.
Plus we got Meera's story - though looked at closely it doesn't actually indicate that Ned liked Ashara.
Its a very good setup.

But its clearly a setup.
Not only is each source clearly unreliable, there's also evident reasoning as to why they would falsely reach those conclusions.
More importantly, the conclusion doesn't fit Ned's thoughts or behaviour, nor make sense in the wider purpose.
Plus Harwin, whose seems to confirm it, actually literally denies it. And he's the one person closest to the facts we hear from, outside Ned (and Robert, who believes something entirely different).
Then on top of that you've got the Barristan factor. The man who crushed on Ashara, who thinks she was dishonoured at Harrenhal, looked to Stark and ended up committing suicide. Yet he has nothing but respect for Ned.

It can be a bit frustrating when something is so clear and obvious but people literally refuse to pay attention to the data, so people appear 'dead set' against it.

On 3/9/2020 at 7:14 AM, The Green Bard said:

N+A=J is not a very compelling theory, so I can't think this as a reflexive defense of R+L=J...  Maybe he had feelings for her, maybe he didn't.  Maybe he had a crush and it went nowhere, or maybe they fell in love, as Edric thinks.  Maybe it was unrequited; maybe she rejected him. Maybe she did at first, but changed her mind / got a better offer.  Maybe she hooked up with Brandon or Howland.  There are so many scenarios people have contemplated.  What scenario are we pushing and / or trying to avoid in advocating the narrative that he couldn't have had feelings about her? 

Frankly I don't care if Ned had a little bit of a crush on her or not. I just don't think its possible that he ever acted on it. Not from character, not from his thoughts or actions, not from the thoughts or memories of those who were around at the time.

On 3/9/2020 at 7:14 AM, The Green Bard said:

I've admitted throughout this thread that I think Brandon is the most likely father of her child, based upon Barristan's testimony and that of Barbrey Dustin. 

I agree. Also note that in Meera's story, Ashara danced with Ned because Brandon asked her to. Thats not conclusive or anything, but perhaps indicates she was hanging out with Brandon and they were perhaps mutually into each other, so to speak.

On 3/9/2020 at 7:14 AM, The Green Bard said:

I also happen to think she could be the "fisherman's daughter." 

The fisherman's daughter is nice and simple and has no need of complication.  

On 3/9/2020 at 7:14 AM, The Green Bard said:

I don't think that any of these ideas change whether she may eventually have become Septa Lemore, something I think less likely than those ideas above.  Certainly, I think that Brandon getting with Ashara could color Ned's opinion of her negatively. 

And why would that be? I can't see any reason why.

On 3/9/2020 at 7:14 AM, The Green Bard said:

Those are my biases.  What is everyone else's bias?

The facts. The text. Consistency and characterisation. Realism.
At least that is what I aim for. 

[corbon]

17 minutes ago, lehutin said:

Touché

 

Eh, even in your numbered sequence, there's 6 sentences that separate (2) from (3):

1. He had sniffed out the truth beneath the dyed blue hair of Griff and Young Griff easily enough, and Yandry and Ysilla seemed to be no more than they claimed to be, whilst Duck was somewhat less.
2. Lemore, though … Who is she, really?
3. Why is she here?
4. Not for gold, I'd judge.
5. What is this prince to her?
6. Was she ever a true septa?

I agree that he hasn't been thinking about this over multiple chapters, but at least the way I read that particular chapter, at that moment, Tyrion was seriously thinking about whether Lemore might be someone else just as Griff was actually JonCon etc. and he "watched her closely."

Yep. And how long was that moment? 10 seconds? 30 seconds? During which time he formulated questions, rather than thought about answers?
Lets call it from the time she emerged in the new garb until the time the conversation moved on. A couple of minutes maybe? And again, he's not really thinking about answers to questions - apart from a quick dismissal of one option - he's thinking about what questions there might actually be.

Frankly, Tyrion never actually spends any time thinking about Lemore's mysteries. They only just come up, as interesting then he's gone.

17 minutes ago, lehutin said:

As for not noticing purple eyes, it's been a while since I've read The Mystery Knight. It's true that it took most of the novella before Dunk recognized that "John" has "Egg's eyes."

But that's Dunk the Lunk, thick as a castle wall. Tyrion is supposed to be far more perceptive.

Well, thats horny vs naked for ya.

[The Map Guy]

4 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

On 3/8/2020 at 11:56 PM, The Map Guy said:

They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived

The above phrasing would have cleared things up.  Speaking of good writing, it would also have satisfied Hemingway's minimalist philosophy.  Still I take you point, and I'll chew on it. 

They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived to ride away means 7 combatants vs 3 combatants, but only 2 survived the conflict

They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived means 7 combatants vs 3 combatants, but out of the total 10, 2 were living and the other 8 were zombies during the conflict

4 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

I had the idea because a voyage from Dragonstone to the Braavosi coastline and then to Dorne would be a very close parallel to the voyage Myrcella takes.

Bravo for the Braavosi parallel. I like parallelism, but I don't think that was George's intention for newborn Dany. Tyrion had a good tactical plan for Myrcella.

Dany was born on Dragonstone and went to Braavos with Darry and Viserys. This is what is given to us.

Why would she be in Dragonstone, and then Dorne, and then Braavos? Without Viserys?

What is the point? How does it contribute to the story later?

4 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

1) Is the comic book considered canon?

I asked the board that and initially Ran said no, he didn't think so. I read a message from GRRM and I thought he said no as well, but I misread it.

But after re-reading his message, and having GRRM's name listed as the "writer" and "author" on the cover of the comics, I believe they are canon.

For the HBO Show, Season 8, the credits show that the episodes are "based on GRRM's ASOIAF".

The comic books have GRRM as the "author".

The comics CANNOT contain every single word of the novels, and had to be shorten by adapters.

I believe GRRM contributed in approving scripts of the comics, as well as approving the illustrations.

GRRM loves comics, and after the HBO abomination ruined his life's work, I'm sure he is keeping his eyes close to the comics. If there was something drastically wrong with the comics, he would definitely point it out. It may be his only chance to get it an faithful adaption of ASOIAF right, without being rushed. D&D changed a lot of things, and rushed it in the end. They had to fill in non-canon blanks on their own, and I'm sure it disgusted GRRM.

Anyways, the very first graphic novel of AGOT was from May 2012. The latest edition of the graphic novels is halfway through ACOK, from October 2019.  Plenty of time to catch up to ADOS when it comes out (I hope).

Off Topic:
In this latest edition, we finally get to meet Meera Reed! And comic-Meera is actually pretty! (no offense to Ellie Kendricks)
And for those who are curious, yes comic-Meera and comic-Jon look alike in the ACOK comics, more than Kit & Ellie.
Comic-Meera actually has her knots, while TV-Meera has her untangled.

Anyways, for anyone who still has a sour taste in their mouth from HBO Season 8, pick up the AGOT & ACOK graphic novels to satisfy your ASOIAF canon taste buds! Six total available now: 4 AGOT and 2 ACOK.

 

4 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

While under normal circumstances I would find your complete tinfoil fascinating, somehow, all this filling in the blanks you are doing makes me wonder how you have the standing to have criticized it in your comment only just above it.  

Thanks ... I think? ... actually I don't quite follow what you mean
When I theorize things, I fill in blanks that are empty ... like Mance's fate in future books.
If I have to erase something that is already written by GRRM so I can re-fill it with tinfoil ... I better have good evidence, a good reason and a good conclusion. Jon being Ned's son and Ramsay writing the Pink Letter are good examples to challenge.

I don't see how new-born Dany being in Dorne can contribute to the story, unless it is for R+L=D, which is logistical mess anyways. 

4 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

23 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

I see a lot of trees in the palace gardens of the mighty Sealord of Braavos in this canon photograph.

Notably, no red doors are discernable.

I was focusing on the argument that trees don't grow in Braavos, despite the canon photograph of trees in a certain area of Braavos.

But if you are asking for a red door, I would like to see one too in a canon map of Sunspear or any place in Dorne.

But I understand it would be hard, since all the maps are 2-dimensional and only show one side of the buildings, and nothing behind the buildings.

 

ASHARA ASHARA ASHARA

[The Map Guy]

48 minutes ago, corbon said:

Because of conspiracy discipline. He's been doing this for 15 years or so. But he knows, thats why he calls Lemore Lady in less guarded moments as the conspiracy starts to come forth.
GRRM is not ready for the reveal yet, but JonCon is no longer needing to hide it the same, so he is starting to relax the conspiracy discipline.

OH I get it! Tyrion doesn't have that conspiracy discipline. That is why he always checks out Lemore's handsome naked body instead of her purple eyes!  Not even once!

But that doesn't explain why Jon Con never tried to hook up with Ashara/Lemore.
Barristan still thinks about Ashara and her purple eyes to this day.
Unless Jon Con is gay.

OR Jon Con did hook up with Ashara, and Young Griff is actually ... Young Griff! Jon Con conspiracy-discipline himself to forget all of this too!

Soo many options ... too bad it doesn't matter when Young Griff gets his head smashed by Zombie Mountain.

[lehutin]

10 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Unless Jon Con is gay.

Isn't it all-but-confirmed that Jon Con is gay?

Quote

Q: Is a certain POV character in ADWD gay?

A: "I can't answer without spoiling, but if you're talking about what I think you're talking about, then yes."

 

[The Green Bard]

15 hours ago, corbon said:

"assume x is true. what is the sequence of events", then we actually have to assume X is true

What?  I did assume that Ashara is Lemore.  Thats the X that's in the title.  Then in the post, OP pivoted and said "My presumption would then be that...".  At this point they are giving an interpretation, i.e. their take on the question.  I don't need to take their timeline.  The whole point is to suggest your own timeline or "sequence of events", which I did.

15 hours ago, corbon said:

Who cared for Baby (f)Aegon before JonCon was brought into the fold?

His mother, Serra.

15 hours ago, corbon said:

How was JonCon convinced that (f)Aegon was real?

  You need only convince A=L first, not four years earlier. 

15 hours ago, corbon said:

You aren't Ned.

Nor is anyone else on this board.  It's my whole point.  We can't know for sure.  I've presented an alternate reading of the text.  

15 hours ago, corbon said:

And yet, the real world most famous purple eyed woman in history, often doesn't look like she has purple eyes unless she is using suitable makeup or accessories.
Ashara Dayne at court has almost no description. Just a beautiful young woman, who yes, has purple eyes, a distinctive feature when young and making oneself as attractive as possible at great parties and events.
Lemore is 20 years older now, has lived a very different lifestyle for nearly all of that, and is actively trying to hide her identity.
I don't agree that having Tyrion not notice purple eyes when he is both literally and metaphorically not looking is a literary cheat. It is in fact realism. Put Elizabeth Taylor, hiding her identity in relative drab, living a rough-ish life for a decade or more, at age 40 odd, and most people wouldn't have noticed her eyes being purple either, if they weren't looking for them.

This I totally agree with.  Add to that Griff dyes his hair blue.  Tyrion happens to think he has blue eyes....  but does he really?  And if not, under a blue sky, might Tyrion not make the same mistake with A=L?

On the subject of hiding your identity, which Lemore admits she is doing, look at the essay on recognition that I link to on the prior page.  

14 hours ago, corbon said:

But its clearly a setup.

Clearly.  No question.  It being a setup doesn't meant there was never anything there.

14 hours ago, corbon said:

Frankly I don't care if Ned had a little bit of a crush on her or not.

 Thank God somebody here can admit even the tiniest sliver of possible nuance here.  That is literally all I ask. 

14 hours ago, corbon said:

perhaps indicates she was hanging out with Brandon and they were perhaps mutually into each other

I'm surprised that Meera's story hasn't been talked about more in this thread.  The exact quote is:

Quote

but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench

On first read, the words "on behalf of" imply that Ned wanted to dance with her.  It could easily be that Brandon wanted him to dance with her to embarass the shy Ned, or that Ned wanted to dance with her but not for the reason of courting her, perhaps to share a message or something.  Your interpretation may be right, too.  In the case that Brandon was sent by Ned or Howland or somebody to talk to her, this might be the first moment Brandon noticed her. 

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived means 7 combatants vs 3 combatants, but out of the total 10, 2 were living and the other 8 were zombies during the conflict

Lol, #truth

EDIT:  On second though, wouldn't that be They had been seven against three, yet only two had been living.

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Why would she be in Dragonstone, and then Dorne, and then Braavos? Without Viserys?

What is the point? How does it contribute to the story later?

The only point I can think of  of going to dorne without Viserys would be to separate the heirs, just like with Bran and Rickon.  This has to be the 4th time I've said this.  The point of re-uniting with Viserys is much less obvious or clear.  I think there is a possibility that whoever would choose to put her back with him might not have her best interests in mind (meaning probably it was Varys).  Most Lemongate supporters tie it to R+L=D.  Most R+L=J fanatics completely reject lemongate because of that alone.  To me, it feels like throwing the baby out with the bathwater. I am only thinking through the feasibility *or not" of lemongate in an R+L=J world.   

There is a narrative progression to lemongate.  It is not just that people see a latitude issue and created a conspiracy theory about it. TBC the R+L=D part of it is a conspiracy theory, but not the lemon part.  In AGoT, The only mentions about lemons are in relation to sweets (lemon cakes) or to the house with the red door (a mysterious place).  Then, in ASoS the topic changes.  The author mentions that Lemons are from Dorne, and / or couldn't be grown in places like the Riverlands (ASoS-Ary II).  The Dornish plot is being developed in this same volume, complete with it's own mention of Dornish lemons (ASoS-Tyr V).  Lemons are further mentioned as being from Dorne as we get deeper into that plot in AFfC (TCotG, TQM).  Throughout this, lemons and lemon cakes are continually mentioned for the rich, even as the scarcity of lemons is increasing due to the war; it begins to be a theme. Early in ADwD, Stannis has lemons, even as the night's watch has run out.  

Then you get the sample chapters from TWoW

Spoiler

which amps it up to 11.  Continuing the theme of scarcity for the poor but largess for the rich, in TWoW Alayne I there is a twelve feet tall lemon cake, but Baelish is noted to have sent for them from Dorne. Finally, in the Mercy chapter, Raff complains that about the lack of lemons in Braavos, and his cohort asks can't you read a bloody map.  It is this last one that I consider most significant.  

I do think the author is giving us a sign post.  It may be pointing to the high and mighty in Braavos.  It may be that I am right and it is pointing to Dorne.  It may be that in ASoS the author is closing plot hole by laughing at himself for not being able to read a map when he published AGoT.  (winds Spoiler follows)

Spoiler

I don't think he needs to double down on it in Winds, though.  

That is why I think the progression is more likely to be pointing to the hose with the red door being in Dorne.  Obviously I could be wrong. 

GRRM closes plot holes. (Wild Cards spoiler)

Spoiler

 In wild cards, he had a throwaway line about the child of an Ace being an Ace.  Then in the next volume, the other author mentioned that the odds of that are astronomical.  What did George, the editor do?  He had to add some back story about the person whose child was an Ace using Genetic modification on the child threw mental telepathy in utero to make them become an Ace, just to close the plot hole.  

He hasn't closed this one and he at least recognizes the tension between lemon trees and Braavos, whether or not he considers it a plot hole. Many times though, his mysteries and foreshadowing follow the type of progression I see here, before a reveal. 

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

OH I get it! Tyrion doesn't have that conspiracy discipline. That is why he always checks out Lemore's handsome naked body instead of her purple eyes!  Not even once!

Devil's advocate, if George is setting up a mystery as to who Lemore is (which he clearly is), wouldn't mentioning her purple eyes be giving the game away if she really is meant to be Ashara?

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

that trees don't grow in Braavos,

I don't think I ever tried to argue the opposite.  Or a least, when I discussed it I nodded to the sealord exception. 

13 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

OR Jon Con did hook up with Ashara, and Young Griff is actually ... Young Griff! Jon Con conspiracy-discipline himself to forget all of this too!

This is clearly true! Lol, so glad to be here for your Eureka moment. End of thread. 

[corbon]

16 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

But that doesn't explain why Jon Con never tried to hook up with Ashara/Lemore.
Barristan still thinks about Ashara and her purple eyes to this day.
Unless Jon Con is gay.

Err, you didn't get that?

Aside from that, people don't have to hook up y'know.

2 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

You need only convince A=L first, not four years earlier. 

I'm struggling to make sense of this.

If Ashara (Lemore) is just as new on the scene as JonCon - ie 4 years late, then she has no credibility either. How the heck would she know the 5 year old kid is the same as the one year old child she hasn't seen for at least 4 years.
She is only credible to JonCon if she's been with the child for virtually all of that time. Which neatly ties in with the 1 yr old child's need for a mother figure, and convincing the rest of Westeros.

If Ashara=Lemore then the f(Aegon) came from Westeros (real Aegon or pisswater prince) and has nothing to do with Serra. Ashara was on board right from her supposed suicide.
There's no way that a 4 year gap in the chain of custody from age 1 to 5 is credible to anyone.

2 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Nor is anyone else on this board.  It's my whole point.  We can't know for sure.  I've presented an alternate reading of the text.  

Things tend to work better if you stay consistent with the characters as presented by GRRM.

2 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

On first read, the words "on behalf of" imply that Ned wanted to dance with her. 

On a sloppy first read. We are led that way, sloppily, because of the prior setups. I certainly was until I re-evaluated after ADwD.
However, this is not 'the' (singular) actual implication of those words. Its only one possibility of several. An equal implication, for example, is that Brandon did it not because Ned wanted it, but because Brandon thought it would be good for Ned. 
If I choose water over soda on behalf of (for) my kids, its not because they want it, its because it will work out better for them!
Its still possible of course, that Ned did want to dance with her and thats the only reason Brandon asked her to dance with Ned. Doesn;t fit the characterisations we have or what we see both inside and outside Ned's head though.

2 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

It could easily be that Brandon wanted him to dance with her to embarass the shy Ned,

Or to try to get the shy Ned to participate in the biggest party of his life.
Or to try to break Shy-Ned-on-the-benches out of himself and get him involved with girls and dancing and fun.
etc etc

 

[The Green Bard]

53 minutes ago, corbon said:

Things tend to work better if you stay consistent with the characters as presented by GRRM.

Except when every one has used a passage in an R+L=J write-up, because of all the set-ups we are supposed to now ignore as we are now enlightened, apparently?

[corbon]

29 minutes ago, The Green Bard said:

Except when every one has used a passage in an R+L=J write-up, because of all the set-ups we are supposed to now ignore as we are now enlightened, apparently?

?
Setups from other characters who don't actually have a direct connection to the situations they refer to are not characterisation as presented by GRRM. Characterisation presented by GRRM is how characters act and think as written by him, and at a second remove, as how other characters who have a direct personal connection perceive them.

For example:
Direct characterisation - > GRRM gives us Ned's own thoughts and actions and we can see a coherent characterisation emerges directly.
Second tier/remove - > GRRM gives us Robert's words about Ned, which are not always accurate (eg Wylla is Jon's mother) but fit the characterisation GRRM gave us directly (eg never-they-boy-you-were and that-one-time).
False setups -> Catlyn wondering about Ashara, whom she never met, and Ned's relationship with Ashara, from before she ever met Ned. Or Cersei's wild thrusts. Or cleverer, Ned Dayne's words, which must be true since he's a Dayne and discussed it with Ashara's own sister - except he wasn't born at the time and likely neither was Allyria, and his story doesn't fit the characterisation of Ned.

[The Map Guy]

11 hours ago, lehutin said:

22 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Unless Jon Con is gay.

Isn't it all-but-confirmed that Jon Con is gay?

5 hours ago, corbon said:

22 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

Unless Jon Con is gay.

Err, you didn't get that?

I can read a map pretty well, but my gaydar is terrible. Once at a bar, some random guy tried to chat and buy me a drink. I didn't think much of it until all my friends started laughing about it.

 

So let me get this straight ... Jon Con is gay? Gay for Rhaegar right?
That would be soo weird because of a parallel:

Littlefinger -> Catelyn -> Alayne/Sansa
Jon Con -> Rhaegar -> Young Griff/fAegon

Yuck!!! C'mon Jon Con, fAegon is just a virgin boy!!!

 

8 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

22 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

They had been seven against three, yet only two had lived means 7 combatants vs 3 combatants, but out of the total 10, 2 were living and the other 8 were zombies during the conflict

Lol, #truth

EDIT:  On second though, wouldn't that be They had been seven against three, yet only two had been living.

English is a weird complicated language

8 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

Most R+L=J fanatics completely reject lemongate because of that alone.

Lemongate: "That lemon tree is important! Dany has been in Dorne and she was lied to her entire life! This can mean R+L=D and BABY SWAP!"
Anti-Lemongate: "Dany was never in Dorne like the story gives us, just let go of the lemon tree science! It doesn't mean anything!"

There is another solution!!!!! And it is sooo easy!!

Easy Peasy Lemon Squeezy: Oberyn Martell, the RED Viper of DORne, brought over a lemon tree as gift to Viserys and Daenerys during the signing of the marriage pact in Braavos.

Look how easy it was!! This is probably to least tinfoillest theory I have ever written.

It sets up an ADOS conversation where Dany asks Doran to prove his family were Targaryen loyalists after Robert's Rebellion.

Doran mentions the lemon tree and Daenerys is like "SHEEEEEETT Dornishman, that is all you had to say!"

 

9 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

22 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

OH I get it! Tyrion doesn't have that conspiracy discipline. That is why he always checks out Lemore's handsome naked body instead of her purple eyes!  Not even once!

Devil's advocate, if George is setting up a mystery as to who Lemore is (which he clearly is), wouldn't mentioning her purple eyes be giving the game away if she really is meant to be Ashara?

Lemore is fake Elia Martell!

The real Elia Martell had her head squished by the Mountain, along with Aegon's head. The con-story would be that it was the pisswater prince and pisswater queen that got their heads smashed, and Elia + Aegon escaped.

Lemore is pretending to be someone she is not. That is the mystery!

But after fAegon dies in battle, Lemore tells Arianne that she is Aunt Elia and requests safe passage to Dorne.
Arianne sends a letter to Doran ... but Doran doesn't open it, thinking it may be bad news ... like Arianne's death.

After he finally decides to open the letter, he finds out that not only is Arianne is not dead, but his sister Elia is alive too! It is WONDERFUL news about Doran's sibling!! Doran starts planning a welcome back party for his sister.
And then (f)Elia shows up at Dorne and Doran is like "who the f**k are you???"

Its like that Simpson's episode about Michael Jackson coming to Springfield. Everyone gets worked up about the news, until they discover MJ is a fraud.

 

TWOW Parallels

Spoiler

 

Every reader knows Jeyne Poole is conning Stannis for safe passage. As readers, we kind of giggle about this, knowing something Stannis doesn't know ... as if we were part of the deception too.

But GRRM gets us back with Lemore conning Arianne, Doran and us the readers ... by pretending to be Elia.

 

And yes, Elia doesn't have interesting purple eyes ... just like Lemore doesn't have interesting purple eyes!

[The Green Bard]

On 3/10/2020 at 10:31 PM, The Map Guy said:

There is another solution!!!!! And it is sooo easy!!

You gave me that link about three responses ago. I read it and commented on it. I don't have any reason to this that it is anymore or less likely.  I wouldn't say it is definitely wrong.  

[The Map Guy]

9 hours ago, The Green Bard said:

You gave me that link about three responses ago. I read it and commented on it. I don't have any reason to this that it is anymore or less likely.  I wouldn't say it is definitely wrong.  

I know, but Lemongate & R+L=D & baby swap are complicated ideas ... and admit it, it is really for the sake of trying to prove the R+L=J theory wrong.

I understand. I spent countless hours researching because I would love to be the one that proves R+L=J wrong too (the things I do for love ... but I won't do that: R+L=D ... and I say that with Loathing)

But when theorizing theories, there is something called Occam's Razor ... where the simplest solution is usually correct.
If more assumptions are required, there better be DAMNING evidence to support it ... otherwise the theory with the least assumptions and the simplest solution is probably correct.

 

Let's take the apocalyptic coronavirus as an example ... how did it all start? Let us take two theories for example, which one is more likely?

Occam's Razor: A biological weapon/virus was injected into a bat in the biolab in Wuhan, China. The bat escaped into the ventilation system, but as it reached outside, it was blinded by the daylight & runs into a wall across the street. A local Wuhanese picks it up and sells it at the food market across the street from the biolab.

Complicated & Less Plausible Theory: The singer Meat Loaf has passed away without public knowledge, but was resurrected by his cult fandom as a Bat ... the Bat Out of Hell, hell bent for the apocalypse of the world. He flies in search of Ozzy Osburne at night, to join forces ... but when daylight broke, he became blind. He ends up in Wuhan, China because of his blindness, and a local person picks him up and eats him. And now the apocalypse starts, thanks to the Bat Out of Hell.

Also no one thinks Meat Loaf passed away, because the actor that plays Hot Pie from HBO GoT is warging his dead body.

So which of these two coronavirus origin theories is more plausible?

 

Off-topic:
Anyways, I love that song, awesome lyrics:

The Sirens are Screaming, and the Fires are Howling
Way down in the valley tonight
There's a man in the shadows with a gun in his eye
And a blade shining oh so bright
There's evil in the air and there's Thunder in the sky,
And a killer's on the bloodshot streets
And down in the tunnels where the deadly are rising
Oh, I swear I saw a young boy down in the gutter
He was starting to foam in the heat

Oh, baby you're the only thing in this whole world
That's pure and good and right
And wherever you are and wherever you go
There's always gonna be some Light,

[...]

If I gotta be damned, you know I want to be damned
Dancing through the night with you!

And OMG those suspenders at the 3:08 mark ROCKS!!!

 

 

And I'm sure somewhere, George is thinking about this dark joke ... where our current global pandemic and apocalypse started with a bat from hell. It is a very serious matter ... but at the same time, its not hard to giggle a little bit: his Bat from Harrenhell.

 

[The Green Bard]

9 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

I know, but Lemongate & R+L=D & baby swap are complicated ideas

Sure.  I am not arguing all 3 though, only the first.  u/hollowaydivision wrote the best stand-alone defense of it on reddit, independent of the other 2.  To me, none of the possible implications of GRRM's repeatedly reminding us of the lemon / lattitude issue clearly fits your definition of Occam's razor.  I am fine living in a world of ambiguity and the hypothetical around this issue and many more.  For instance, the possibility that AD = L or AD = GR or even AD = GR = L, is why I am here.

I love the take on bat out of hell.  The whole record is amazing in it's own imagery.  Your tie to ASoIaF certainly reminds me of the slander about Sansa sprouting the wings of a bat and escaping kings landing, which I cover in this essay.

It's too bad Ashara Dayne's mother's identity is unknown.  If she also can tie it back to Harrenhal, Sansa's experience might foreshadow a reveal about her living through her tower fall.  GRRM may even be planning to add it!  This is of course highly unlikely.

[Frey family reunion]

On 3/10/2020 at 3:16 PM, corbon said:

On a sloppy first read. We are led that way, sloppily, because of the prior setups. I certainly was until I re-evaluated after ADwD.
However, this is not 'the' (singular) actual implication of those words. Its only one possibility of several. An equal implication, for example, is that Brandon did it not because Ned wanted it, but because Brandon thought it would be good for Ned. 

I don't think this is fair reading of the text.  The story is told through Meera but it originated by Howland.  Howland is a friend of Ned's who shared bread with Ned at Harrenhal and then traveled with Ned through during some parts of the war.  They continued correspondence after the war.

If Howland indicated that Brandon approached Ashara on behalf of Ned who was too shy to do it himself, the only reasonable interpretation was the Ned was interested in Ashara but he was too shy to approach her himself.  And Howland would have been in a position to know this through his relationship with Ned.

If the story just read that Brandon approached her on behalf of Ned, then perhaps you would have a point.  But the fact that Brandon was acting on behalf of Ned because Ned was too shy to approach her himself, lead to only one reasonable conclusion from the text.

[lehutin]

8 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

If Howland indicated that Brandon approached Ashara on behalf of Ned who was too shy to do it himself, the only reasonable interpretation was the Ned was interested in Ashara but he was too shy to approach her himself.

We don't know that Ned was too shy to approach Ashara himself. All we know from Meera's story is that Ned was too shy to leave his bench:

Quote

The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench.

Perhaps Ned wanted to approach Ashara, but we don't know that for certainty from Howland/Meera's story.

 

Besides, Ned himself never reminisces about Ashara or this dance, as I've said ad nauseam. In contrast, the "white sword" still has painful feelings of unrequited love for Ashara nearly two decades later:

Quote

Even after all these years, Ser Barristan could still recall Ashara’s smile, the sound of her laughter. He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes.

...

She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her...of all his failures, none haunted Barristan Selmy so much as that.

 

[Frey family reunion]

2 hours ago, lehutin said:

We don't know that Ned was too shy to approach Ashara himself. All we know from Meera's story is that Ned was too shy to leave his bench:

Perhaps Ned wanted to approach Ashara, but we don't know that for certainty from Howland/Meera's story.

 

Besides, Ned himself never reminisces about Ashara or this dance, as I've said ad nauseam. In contrast, the "white sword" still has painful feelings of unrequited love for Ashara nearly two decades later:

 

Sigh.  Sometimes I think you guys argue just for the sake of arguing.  I suppose you could interpret it that Ned was just a bad dancer and was too embarrassed to get out the dance floor so Brandon decided he’d get Ashara to teach Ned the waltz.  Or Brandon decided that Ned needed to get laid so he randomly picked out Elia’s lady in waiting, deciding that she and Ned had waited long enough.

Or you know, you can interpret it from the only logical reading of the text.  Ned was smitten by the lovely gal with the laughing purple eyes, but was too shy to ask her to dance.  So his big, bold brother took it upon himself to help his younger brother out.  And there enough noticeable interactions afterwards between Ned and Ashara at the tourney to generate the tale at Winterfell that Ned and Ashara may have whispered sweet nothings at Harrenhal and shared a kiss or perhaps something more.

And Ned wouldn’t have been the only one smitten by Ashara Dayne.  We know for a fact that Selmy was.  There is also the possibility that the original narrator of the story was as well.  After all Howland’s recount of the tourney seemed to fixate on every single person that Ashara danced with at the tourney.  Much like Lysa Tully fixated on who Petyr danced with back at Riverrun.

Now having said that, I don’t necessarily assume at all that Ned was the one who dishonored Ashara.  (Even though I am very suspicious that Ashara’s true purpose at Harrenhal may very well have been as a seductress).  After all Ned is the honorable sort.  And if Ned wasn’t willing to go “all the way” at the tourney, it just so happens that he had a lusty brother who probably would have been.

As for the lack of Ned’s “reminiscence” of Ashara, it may very well have been that their relationship, whatever it consisted of isn’t a fond memory for Eddard.  Maybe one of the reasons that Ned forbids her name from being mentioned at Winterfell.

Finally, as for the “white sword” that Ashara was dancing with, why do you assume it was Barristan?  I think it’s much more likely that the White Sword Ashara was dancing with, was her brother, Arthur.  After all, he is the White Sword who wielded the white sword.  And it fits in with her other dance partners.  Jon Connington, and Oberyn Martell.  All people who are in Rhaegar and Elia’s inner circle, unlike Barristan.  Here is the hint, Ashara is in the clique and she probably shared secrets with Rhaegar, Elia, Arthur, Jon, and Oberyn that Barristan wasn’t privy to.