About The Purple Wedding...

[Dreadscythe95]

I think that at this point we have strong clues that Joffrey was never the target of the poison and that things are more complicated. This was discussed in a previous thread and so I wanted to make a seperate post

There are two seperate persons who were poisoned imo.

1. Tyrion Lannister

2. Tywin Lannster (yup)

Tyrion was poisoned by The Tyrells. They wanted ot get rid of him because they realised his value to the Lannisters (and threat to them) and more importantly because they wanted Sansa and Tywin forced Tyrion to marry her.  

Tywin was probably poisoned the night that Tyrion killed him (or maybe he was poisoned in small doses for some time). Tyrion finds him in the toilet and we know that his corpse was smelling unusally badly. Martin doesn't stop refering to that fact many times during AFFC. The biggest possibility is that The Martells were poisoning Tywin for revenge. When he died everyone would blame Oberyn for the Murder and he would ask for a trial by combat. The Lannisters would probably pick The Mountain and Oberyn's vengeance would be complete. How did Oberyn poison him though? The answer is probably Shae, she was a Martell agent all along and this was probably the reason she approached Tyrion in the first place. Of course if that's the case then what about Amory Lorch, he should die for the vengeance plan to be true and there is no way for Oberyn to have predicted his death. Except if The Brave Companions were working for the Martells all along. Think of it. We know that The Brave companions betray Tywin lannister, the richest and strongest man in Westeros to align themselves with Roose Bolton, a far poorer man that was not even Warden of The North and this all happened when Amory Lorch had Harrenhal and Roose wanted to take it. Everything points out to a Martell conspiracy to kill everyone that has a part in Elia's murder.

As for Littlefinger, the biggest possibility is that he was lying when he said to Sansa that The Tyrells wanted to kill Joffrey. Littlefinger knew that The Tyrells had influenced Sansa a lot and he probably wanted to put her against them. Also Littlefinger probably played a part in convincing the Tyrells that Tyrion was a threat to them. Littlefinger seems to gamble a lot, he is an opportunit and he tries to turn every situation to his advantage.

 

From all the time I have spend on this forum I feel that this is the theory most people tend to agree, am I right?

[Putin]

Stannis threw the leech so usurper Joffrey Baratheon had to die, that is all that matters  , how exactly he died  its irrelevant.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

17 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

The answer is probably Shae, she was a Martell agent all along and this was probably the reason she approached Tyrion in the first place.

Idk about this. She didn't approach Tyrion, Tyrion had Bronn collect her for him. 

 

18 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Littlefinger knew that The Tyrells had influenced Sansa a lot and he probably wanted to put her against them.

I don't think the Tyrell's wanting to kill Joff would put Sansa against them, why would it? He has been unusually cruel & mean to her, she would likely welcome his death. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

19 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

From all the time I have spend on this forum I feel that this is the theory most people tend to agree, am I right?

I don't think so, this is the second time I've seen this particular theory presented, the first being in the thread you were speaking of. I think the most accepted version is that LF & Olenna conspired to poison Joff. 

[John Suburbs]

22 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

The answer is probably Shae, she was a Martell agent all along and this was probably the reason she approached Tyrion in the first place. 

Interesting thought about Shae. The problem is that she did not approach Tyrion. Bronn had taken her from some other knight in Tywin's service.

If I had to guess, I would say that Shae (and perhaps Bronn as well) were Littlefinger's creatures. Shae, after all, is exactly the kind of spy that LF would groom -- a master seductress who could get close to the high and mighty to learn their secrets. I can imagine he has dozens of Shaes all over Westeros, and this one happened to land Tyrion, and then Tywin. I'll also point to the fact that on at least three separate occasions, Shae begs Tyrion to serve him at the wedding, once stating bluntly "I've never seen pigeons fly out of a pie before."

Regarding Oberyn: many people think he poisoned Tyrion, and he very well could have. The only issue I have with the idea is that Oberyn just doesn't want to killed Gregor and Tywin; he wants to expose them and shame them before the entire realm is tyrants and child-murderers. So it might be as you say: Oberyn wanted to be accused of Tywin's murder so he could fight the Mountain. But that's kind of working it in reverse. Tywin is the ultimate target here. And I'd be interested in finding out exactly how Oberyn expected to be accused of the crime when all of this poisoning was being done in secret.

Regarding the PW: Lady Olenna and Littlefinger were the only plotters. Their only target was Tyrion, and Lady Olenna put the poison in his pie during the cutting ceremony. There was never any poison in the wine until Joffrey barfed it there.

[Dreadscythe95]

27 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Idk about this. She didn't approach Tyrion, Tyrion had Bronn collect her for him. 

 

I don't think the Tyrell's wanting to kill Joff would put Sansa against them, why would it? He has been unusually cruel & mean to her, she would likely welcome his death. 

Bron's true alliance is still unknown anyway, if he has any.

Sansa always considered The Tyrells to be kind and innocent. After that Littlefinger said to her that they play th same dirty game like everyoen else but he also pointed out that he wants to protect her from everyone.

[Dreadscythe95]

14 minutes ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

I don't think so, this is the second time I've seen this particular theory presented, the first being in the thread you were speaking of. I think the most accepted version is that LF & Olenna conspired to poison Joff. 

Really? if you mean a threat I made a long time ago I was inspired by some threats in here and a video from the channel Alt Shit X.

[Dreadscythe95]

5 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Interesting thought about Shae. The problem is that she did not approach Tyrion. Bronn had taken her from some other knight in Tywin's service.

We don't know actually if Bronn is a true friend of Tyrion in the series anyway.

6 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

If I had to guess, I would say that Shae (and perhaps Bronn as well) were Littlefinger's creatures. Shae, after all, is exactly the kind of spy that LF would groom -- a master seductress who could get close to the high and mighty to learn their secrets. I can imagine he has dozens of Shaes all over Westeros, and this one happened to land Tyrion, and then Tywin. I'll also point to the fact that on at least three separate occasions, Shae begs Tyrion to serve him at the wedding, once stating bluntly "I've never seen pigeons fly out of a pie before."

This could be as well but I don't see a reason why Littlefinger would want to kill Tywin Lannister since he made him Lord of Harrenhal

8 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And I'd be interested in finding out exactly how Oberyn expected to be accused of the crime when all of this poisoning was being done in secret.

 

Well, he did kind of sayd every 5 minutes to Tyrion about justice being served while he was famous for his poisoning skills. 

10 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Regarding the PW: Lady Olenna and Littlefinger were the only plotters. Their only target was Tyrion, and Lady Olenna put the poison in his pie during the cutting ceremony. There was never any poison in the wine until Joffrey barfed it there.

This could always be a safe bet because both had reasons to kill him. Also yeah Kittlefinger could be a part of Tyrion's poisoning as well, he still bluffed to Sansa. Still this doesn't explain who poisoned Tywin because I can't stop believing that he was poisoned because of the evidence that Martin gives.

[John Suburbs]

12 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

We don't know actually if Bronn is a true friend of Tyrion in the series anyway.

This could be as well but I don't see a reason why Littlefinger would want to kill Tywin Lannister since he made him Lord of Harrenhal

Well, he did kind of sayd every 5 minutes to Tyrion about justice being served while he was famous for his poisoning skills. 

This could always be a safe bet because both had reasons to kill him. Also yeah Kittlefinger could be a part of Tyrion's poisoning as well, he still bluffed to Sansa. Still this doesn't explain who poisoned Tywin because I can't stop believing that he was poisoned because of the evidence that Martin gives.

Yeah, Bronn is a puzzle. But aside from bringing Shae into Tyrion's orbit, he was also the one who kept Tyrion from being tossed out the Moon Door. Why would this benefit Littlefinger? Because the last thing he wants is for Tywin to have a grudge against Lysa Arryn and the Vale. He needs the Vale to stay out of it at this point. So Bronn could very well be LF's man, IMO.

Harrenhal is a nice prize, but realize that Littlefinger has no intention of ever setting foot in the castle. Secondly, the only way he would lose it is if he were discovered as Tywin's murderer, which isn't likely. So even with Tywin dead, LF would still be Lord of HH, Lord Paramount of the Riverlands, etc, and he only needs this to marry Lysa Arryn, which will have taken place by the time Tywin died anyway. Also, removing Tywin brings a lot of instability (aka chaos) to house Lannister and the realm, since it will be Joffrey and Cersei (who would remain as regent) running the show, with Margaery and Lady Olenna doing their best to weaken their power.

Yes, Oberyn wants justice, and he is good with poisons. But justice won't come through the quiet, secret death for the architect of the murders of his sister, niece and nephew. This would only serve to send Tywin Lannister down in history as one of the greatest lords that Casterly Rock has ever produced -- probably with a statue and streets named in his honor, etc. Justice must also include complete exposure of Tywin's role in those deaths so that his name only lives on in infamy and that no one ever names their child Tywin again, except for spite -- like Maegor. This is why he didn't just kill Gregor when he had him on the ground: he had to get him to admit is guilt first. The next step was to expose the man who gave the order.

Also, Oberyn is not in a position to slowly poison Tywin over a period of time, which seems to be what is happening. I think the book mentions them having one dinner together, and even then it would be very difficult to do while they are both sitting there across from each other. So if Ob did manage to do it with the Tears of Lys, then Tywin would have collapsed quickly, like Jon Arryn. Slow poisoning could only come from someone with steady access to Tywin, like Shae apparently. Then the question becomes: was she doing this at Littlefinger's request, or does she serve an even higher master?

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

56 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Bron's true alliance is still unknown anyway, if he has any.

Right, but there really isn't any evidence to suggest Shae is involved is what I'm saying. You said Shae approached Tyrion but she didn't, Bronn collected her for Tyrion. 

57 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Sansa always considered The Tyrells to be kind and innocent. After that Littlefinger said to her that they play th same dirty game like everyoen else but he also pointed out that he wants to protect her from everyone.

Yeah, I don't really recall that but I don't think wanting to kill Joff would be a point against them in her eyes, plus LF admits his own involvement too so it wouldn't really make sense for him to blame it on the Tyrells so that Sansa won't like them. 

58 minutes ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Really? if you mean a threat I made a long time ago I was inspired by some threats in here and a video from the channel Alt Shit X.

No, I'm talking about the thread you originally posted this post in. I didn't read all of that theory though. 

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, Dreadscythe95 said:

Tyrion finds him in the toilet and we know that his corpse was smelling unusally badly. Martin doesn't stop refering to that fact many times during AFFC. The biggest possibility is that The Martells were poisoning Tywin for revenge.

Readers think that it was just a coincidence, a good luck of Tyrion, that at the time when he got into Tywin's room, only Shae was there, while Tywin was in the bathroom.

I'm absolutely sure that Shae was working for Varys, and that it was Varys who arranged for Shae on that night to be with Tywin, for Tyrion to see her in Tywin's bed. Furthermore, I think that Varys gave Shae some sort of powder or potion to slip it into Tywin's wine.

Most likely, when he gave her that remedy, he told her that it's something that will make Tywin to desire her more, something to strengthen Tywin's potency, basically something like Viagra. Shae didn't knew that Varys set her up to be killed by Tyrion. Varys manipulated Jaime to talk with Tyrion about Tysha. And because of what Tywin did to Tysha, Tyrion wanted to go and face him one last time. Maybe, he wasn't planning to kill him, while he was climbing there. But when he got into Tywin's room, and saw there Shae, who was Tyrion's Tysha-Version2, for him her presence there, so soon after being reminded about Tysha's incident, was the last straw.

The medicine that Shae gave to Tywin, was a strong purgative/laxative, and because Tywin took it, he was spending that night on a toilet. And Varys placed that crossbow, with which Tyrion killed his father, directly above big chest, for Tyrion to be able to stand on that chest and to reach that weapon.

If Tywin was in his room together with Shae, when Tyrion came there, then Tyrion wouldn't have been able to overpower them both. Instead Tywin would have hit him a few times, and called for guards to take him back into the dungeon.

If that chest was standing somewhere else, and not directly under the crossbow, then Tyrion wouldn't have been able to reach it. And because that chest was sturdy enoght for Tyrion to stand on it, it was also too heavy for Tyrion to move elsewhere. Thus, if the chest wasn't exactly where it was, and if it wasn't high enough for Tyrion to reach from the top of it to the crossbow, or if it was too high for Tyrion to climb on top of it, then Tyrion wouldn't have had a weapon with which to kill Tywin.

If instead of a crossbow, there was some other weapon, like a sword or a longbow or a mace or spear, or any other weapon that is not a crossbow, then Tyrion wouldn't have been able to kill Tywin. He wouldn't have been able to draw a string of a longbow. If he used a sword or a spear against Tywin, then Tywin would have just kicked it out of Tyrion's arms, or grabbed it and took it away from Tyrion and then would have used it against him.

So yes there is a reason why GRRM was repeatedly pointing readers to Tywin's condition after his death. He smelled really bad, because he indeed was poisoned, with purgatives. But it wasn't done by Tyrells or Martells. It was done by Shae, and she was Varys' agent.

 

[Hugorfonics]

11 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Readers think that it was just a coincidence, a good luck of Tyrion, that at the time when he got into Tywin's room, only Shae was there, while Tywin was in the bathroom.

Tyrion was lucky thay Shae was in bed and not in full armor, but he didnt expect his girlfriend to be in his fathers bed anyway. He did however expect to find Tywin vulnerable

Quote

Waddling to the door, he listened a moment, then eased it open slowly. A lamp burned in a stone niche, casting wan yellow light over the empty hallway. Only the flame was moving. Tyrion slid out, holding the crossbow down against his leg.

He found his father where he knew he'd find him, seated in the dimness of the privy tower, bedrobe hiked up around his hips. At the sound of steps, Lord Tywin raised his eyes.

Tyrion gave him a mocking half bow. "My lord."

Some folk got bowel movements locked down to a schedule

Quote

By his elbow rested a massive leather-bound copy of Annals of the Black Centaur, Septon Jorquen's exhaustively detailed account of the nine years that Orbert Caswell had served as Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. There was a page for each day of his term, every one of which seemed to begin, "Lord Orbert rose at dawn and moved his bowels," except for the last, which said, "Lord Orbert was found to have died during the night."

 

[Dreadscythe95]

3 hours ago, Lyanna<3Rhaegar said:

Right, but there really isn't any evidence to suggest Shae is involved is what I'm saying. You said Shae approached Tyrion but she didn't, Bronn collected her for Tyrion. 

Yeah, I don't really recall that but I don't think wanting to kill Joff would be a point against them in her eyes, plus LF admits his own involvement too so it wouldn't really make sense for him to blame it on the Tyrells so that Sansa won't like them. 

No, I'm talking about the thread you originally posted this post in. I didn't read all of that theory though. 

Yeah, I mean that maybe Bronn is also an agent of The Martells. Actually there are still so many things that could be going on, xD. When will Mr Martin release TWoW, I want to learn so many things...

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Megorova said:

Readers think that it was just a coincidence, a good luck of Tyrion, that at the time when he got into Tywin's room, only Shae was there, while Tywin was in the bathroom.

I'm absolutely sure that Shae was working for Varys, and that it was Varys who arranged for Shae on that night to be with Tywin, for Tyrion to see her in Tywin's bed. Furthermore, I think that Varys gave Shae some sort of powder or potion to slip it into Tywin's wine.

Most likely, when he gave her that remedy, he told her that it's something that will make Tywin to desire her more, something to strengthen Tywin's potency, basically something like Viagra. Shae didn't knew that Varys set her up to be killed by Tyrion. Varys manipulated Jaime to talk with Tyrion about Tysha. And because of what Tywin did to Tysha, Tyrion wanted to go and face him one last time. Maybe, he wasn't planning to kill him, while he was climbing there. But when he got into Tywin's room, and saw there Shae, who was Tyrion's Tysha-Version2, for him her presence there, so soon after being reminded about Tysha's incident, was the last straw.

The medicine that Shae gave to Tywin, was a strong purgative/laxative, and because Tywin took it, he was spending that night on a toilet. And Varys placed that crossbow, with which Tyrion killed his father, directly above big chest, for Tyrion to be able to stand on that chest and to reach that weapon.

If Tywin was in his room together with Shae, when Tyrion came there, then Tyrion wouldn't have been able to overpower them both. Instead Tywin would have hit him a few times, and called for guards to take him back into the dungeon.

If that chest was standing somewhere else, and not directly under the crossbow, then Tyrion wouldn't have been able to reach it. And because that chest was sturdy enoght for Tyrion to stand on it, it was also too heavy for Tyrion to move elsewhere. Thus, if the chest wasn't exactly where it was, and if it wasn't high enough for Tyrion to reach from the top of it to the crossbow, or if it was too high for Tyrion to climb on top of it, then Tyrion wouldn't have had a weapon with which to kill Tywin.

If instead of a crossbow, there was some other weapon, like a sword or a longbow or a mace or spear, or any other weapon that is not a crossbow, then Tyrion wouldn't have been able to kill Tywin. He wouldn't have been able to draw a string of a longbow. If he used a sword or a spear against Tywin, then Tywin would have just kicked it out of Tyrion's arms, or grabbed it and took it away from Tyrion and then would have used it against him.

So yes there is a reason why GRRM was repeatedly pointing readers to Tywin's condition after his death. He smelled really bad, because he indeed was poisoned, with purgatives. But it wasn't done by Tyrells or Martells. It was done by Shae, and she was Varys' agent.

 

I'm not quite sure how you connect Shae to Varys. Or how Varys manipulated Jaime into confessing about Tysha when it was Jaime who forced Varys into releasing Tyrion in the first place.

Also, if Varys has a mind to kill Tywin through Shae, then wouldn't sending Tyrion into that mix be the last thing he would want to do? Suppose he got there before Tywin had his wine or before Shae had a chance to dose it? Why give Tyrion the exact directions to arrive at the exact location to upset his plans?

A chest next to a wall underneath a crossbow. Doesn't seem all that strange to me. And if not the crossbow, he would have used Tywin's own dagger lying right on the bedside table.

My bet is that Shae is Littlefinger's creature. And probably Bronn too. They both fit his MO as the types of operatives he would use. Varys uses children.

[Megorova]

18 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Also, if Varys has a mind to kill Tywin through Shae, then wouldn't sending Tyrion into that mix be the last thing he would want to do? Suppose he got there before Tywin had his wine or before Shae had a chance to dose it? Why give Tyrion the exact directions to arrive at the exact location to upset his plans?

Varys used Shae thru her to do two things - 1. to keep Tywin tied to a toilet, and 2. to make Tyrion go berserk after seeing Shae in Tywin's bed.

In early evening Varys sent Shae to Tywin's room. She slipped that potion into his wine. A bit later that substance started to work. It was going to affect Tywin for the rest of the night. He was going to stay in the bathroom for many hours after drinking that thing. So it doesn't matter when exactly Tyrion would have arrived into Tywin's chamber, because Tywin was out in the bathroom, and was going to stay there.

Tywin's death wasn't Varys' goal. His goal was to make Tyrion to kill Tywin, and make Jaime to become an accomplice in his father's death. The purpose of what Varys did, was to put a wedge between Lannisters, to separate them, to make them enemies of each other, to make it impossible for Tyrion to ever return home, and also it worsened relationship between Cersei and Jaime. Varys used tactic divide and conquer.

25 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Or how Varys manipulated Jaime into confessing about Tysha when it was Jaime who forced Varys into releasing Tyrion in the first place.

Jaime didn't knew that Varys had access to the dungeon. How would he know that? It was Varys who came to him, and intentionally let it slip that he have access to the dungeon, something like that he was there and talked with Tyrion, and thru that information made Jaime realise that Varys can get Tyrion out of the dungeon. Thus Jaime forced Varys to help him free Tyrion. But actually it was Varys' plan all along. Only he made Jaime think that it was Jaime's own idea. Varys is a master-manipulator.

Probably when he was discussing with Jaime how he will get Tyrion out, and where Tyrion will go after that, he said to Jaime something like - you won't ever see your brother, so if there's something that you want to tell him, or something for what you want to appologise to him, then this is your last chance. Of course he didn't said it in such a plain manner, he used other words, and he manipulated Jaime into thinking that he should make that confession about Tysha.

First he sent Shae to Tywin's room, for Shae to "incapacitate" Tywin. Then he went and manipulated Jaime into "forcing" Varys to free Tyrion, and to confess to Tyrion. Then he manipulated Tyrion into going up into Tywin's room. And when Tyrion got there, he saw Shae in Tywin's bed. The chest and the crossbow, and Tywin were exactly where Varys orchestrated them to be.

34 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

I'm not quite sure how you connect Shae to Varys.

Bronn is probably a member of Golden Company. Both him and Shae were working for Varys. It was Bronn who brought Shae to Tyrion. Varys intentionally inserted Shae into Tyrion's entorage, to have her spy after him. Probably originally he did it to find out what Tyrion knows about what happened at Winterfell, and whether Tyrion knows the truth about Cersei's children, and whether he is going to reveal it to anyone. But later, when he knew more about Tyrion, and found out that Tyrion could be useful, he decided to turn Tyrion into one of his agents. And for that to happen, it was necessary that Tyrion will loose support of his House, and whatever foothold he has in 7K. 

I think that when Catelyn left King's Landing, Varys sent Bronn and Chiggen to follow her to the North. But when she intercepted Tyrion at the Crossroads Inn, Varys ordered them instead to follow Tyrion. Bronn defended Tyrion at the Eyrie, because that way he planned to get close to him. He saved Tyrion's life, so after that Tyrion trusted him. Which made it easy for Bronn to plant Shae into Tyrion's bed. Did Tyrion ever told Shae about Tysha? Maybe, when she got him drunk and made him to talk and reveal his secrets. And then she reported all that back to Varys.

1 hour ago, John Suburbs said:

A chest next to a wall underneath a crossbow. Doesn't seem all that strange to me. And if not the crossbow, he would have used Tywin's own dagger lying right on the bedside table.

If that chest was higher than it was, then Tyrion wouldn't have been able to climb on top of it. He's a dwarf, he has disabled body, the movement of his joints is very limited, he often falls on flat ground, he has cramps and pains all the time, etc. And he had to climb all those steps up, and all that after being tired and underfed while he was imprisoned.

If it was a different chest, of a different heigh, or made from more flimsyer wood, if its lid wasn't sturdy enough to keep Tyrion's weight, then it would have broken under him, or didn't lifted him high enough.

And concerning Tywin's dagger - Tywin had longer arms and legs, thus he had longer reach than Tyrion. With a weapon like dagger, it would have been nearly impossible for Tyrion to get close enough to Tywin to wound him with a dagger. How long are Tyrion's arms? I bet that even with a dagger in his hand, he still had shorter reach than Tywin's arms. If he approached to Tywin closer than the length of Tywin's arms or legs, then Tywin could have just kicked him.

So realistically that crossbow was the only weapon with which Tyrion had an advantage over a person of normal heigh.

[Nevets]

Bronn works for Bronn and nobody else.  The level of coordination required is ridiculous.  His presence at the inn is coincidence, as is the meeting between Tyrion and Catelyn.  Trying to coordinate all that with the communication available would be impossible.

Shae was most likely spying on Tyrion for Tywin when she was killed.  He probably threatened or bribed her after he discovered her presence.

That Tywin was poisoned by Oberyn is possible, but unproven.

The Tyrells had no reason to want Tyrion dead.  Given that Sansa is a logical suspect and is carrying the murder weapon, they probably expected her arrest with Tyrion.  If Littlefinger promised to get Sansa out, they are fools.

Joffrey was a problem.  He would have been abusive, a problem in itself and as regards Loras.  He was also headstrong, and could only be manipulated into doing what he wanted anyway.  Good governance isn't among them.

So, Joffrey was the target, and Bronn and Shae are not working for either LF or Varys.

[Hugorfonics]

3 hours ago, Nevets said:

.The Tyrells had no reason to want Tyrion dead.  Given that Sansa is a logical suspect and is carrying the murder weapon, they probably expected her arrest with Tyrion.  If Littlefinger promised to get Sansa out, they are fools.

Olenna thought she was going to get Sansa out

Quote

"The wind has been at your hair, though." The little old woman reached up and fussed at the loose strands, tucking them back into place and straightening Sansa's hair net. "I was very sorry to hear about your losses," she said as she tugged and fiddled. "Your brother was a terrible traitor, I know, but if we start killing men at weddings they'll be even more frightened of marriage than they are presently. There, that's better." Lady Olenna smiled. "I am pleased to say I shall be leaving for Highgarden the day after next. I have had quite enough of this smelly city, thank you. Perhaps you would like to accompany me for a little visit, whilst the men are off having their war? I shall miss my Margaery so dreadfully, and all her lovely ladies. Your company would be such sweet solace."

Kidnapping Sansa to marry her off to a Tyrell requires one less imp in the world

[Nevets]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Olenna thought she was going to get Sansa out

Kidnapping Sansa to marry her off to a Tyrell requires one less imp in the world

While I am sure that they would have been quite happy to spirit Sansa away, they don't appear to be counting on it, and have made no arrangements to do so.

It is therefore highly unlikely to have been a motive for murder, and they have no other reason to wish Tyrion dead.

[Hugorfonics]

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

While I am sure that they would have been quite happy to spirit Sansa away, they don't appear to be counting on it

So why would Olenna say that?

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

, and have made no arrangements to do so.

Why do you think the Tyrells came to KL in the first place? Like, how long were they there before they tried to indoctrinate Sansa?

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

It is therefore highly unlikely to have been a motive for murder, 

I disagree. Sansa is the north. Thats half of westeros. Thats enough motive for any crime

11 hours ago, Nevets said:

, and they have no other reason to wish Tyrion dead.

They have no reason at all to want Joffrey dead

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, Megorova said:

Varys used Shae thru her to do two things - 1. to keep Tywin tied to a toilet, and 2. to make Tyrion go berserk after seeing Shae in Tywin's bed.

In early evening Varys sent Shae to Tywin's room. She slipped that potion into his wine. A bit later that substance started to work. It was going to affect Tywin for the rest of the night. He was going to stay in the bathroom for many hours after drinking that thing. So it doesn't matter when exactly Tyrion would have arrived into Tywin's chamber, because Tywin was out in the bathroom, and was going to stay there.

Tywin's death wasn't Varys' goal. His goal was to make Tyrion to kill Tywin, and make Jaime to become an accomplice in his father's death. The purpose of what Varys did, was to put a wedge between Lannisters, to separate them, to make them enemies of each other, to make it impossible for Tyrion to ever return home, and also it worsened relationship between Cersei and Jaime. Varys used tactic divide and conquer.

Jaime didn't knew that Varys had access to the dungeon. How would he know that? It was Varys who came to him, and intentionally let it slip that he have access to the dungeon, something like that he was there and talked with Tyrion, and thru that information made Jaime realise that Varys can get Tyrion out of the dungeon. Thus Jaime forced Varys to help him free Tyrion. But actually it was Varys' plan all along. Only he made Jaime think that it was Jaime's own idea. Varys is a master-manipulator.

Probably when he was discussing with Jaime how he will get Tyrion out, and where Tyrion will go after that, he said to Jaime something like - you won't ever see your brother, so if there's something that you want to tell him, or something for what you want to appologise to him, then this is your last chance. Of course he didn't said it in such a plain manner, he used other words, and he manipulated Jaime into thinking that he should make that confession about Tysha.

First he sent Shae to Tywin's room, for Shae to "incapacitate" Tywin. Then he went and manipulated Jaime into "forcing" Varys to free Tyrion, and to confess to Tyrion. Then he manipulated Tyrion into going up into Tywin's room. And when Tyrion got there, he saw Shae in Tywin's bed. The chest and the crossbow, and Tywin were exactly where Varys orchestrated them to be.

Bronn is probably a member of Golden Company. Both him and Shae were working for Varys. It was Bronn who brought Shae to Tyrion. Varys intentionally inserted Shae into Tyrion's entorage, to have her spy after him. Probably originally he did it to find out what Tyrion knows about what happened at Winterfell, and whether Tyrion knows the truth about Cersei's children, and whether he is going to reveal it to anyone. But later, when he knew more about Tyrion, and found out that Tyrion could be useful, he decided to turn Tyrion into one of his agents. And for that to happen, it was necessary that Tyrion will loose support of his House, and whatever foothold he has in 7K. 

I think that when Catelyn left King's Landing, Varys sent Bronn and Chiggen to follow her to the North. But when she intercepted Tyrion at the Crossroads Inn, Varys ordered them instead to follow Tyrion. Bronn defended Tyrion at the Eyrie, because that way he planned to get close to him. He saved Tyrion's life, so after that Tyrion trusted him. Which made it easy for Bronn to plant Shae into Tyrion's bed. Did Tyrion ever told Shae about Tysha? Maybe, when she got him drunk and made him to talk and reveal his secrets. And then she reported all that back to Varys.

If that chest was higher than it was, then Tyrion wouldn't have been able to climb on top of it. He's a dwarf, he has disabled body, the movement of his joints is very limited, he often falls on flat ground, he has cramps and pains all the time, etc. And he had to climb all those steps up, and all that after being tired and underfed while he was imprisoned.

If it was a different chest, of a different heigh, or made from more flimsyer wood, if its lid wasn't sturdy enough to keep Tyrion's weight, then it would have broken under him, or didn't lifted him high enough.

And concerning Tywin's dagger - Tywin had longer arms and legs, thus he had longer reach than Tyrion. With a weapon like dagger, it would have been nearly impossible for Tyrion to get close enough to Tywin to wound him with a dagger. How long are Tyrion's arms? I bet that even with a dagger in his hand, he still had shorter reach than Tywin's arms. If he approached to Tywin closer than the length of Tywin's arms or legs, then Tywin could have just kicked him.

So realistically that crossbow was the only weapon with which Tyrion had an advantage over a person of normal heigh.

Sorry, but I still don't see any evidence to conclude that Varys is setting all this up. Is there any text that shows Varys sending Shae to Tywin's room? Is there any reason to believe that Varys thought Tyrion would escape his cell until Jaime put a knife to his throat and ordered him to do it?

Varys did not go to Jaime. Exactly the opposite, in fact:

Quote

He had waited in the eunuch's chambers that night, when at last he had decided not to let his ittle brother die. As he waited, he had sharpened his dagger with one hand, taking a queer comfort from the scrape-scrape-scrape of steel on stone. At the sound of footsteps he stood beside the door. Varys entered in a wash of powder and lavender. Jaime stepped out behind him, kicked him in the back of the knee, knelt on his chest and shoved the knife up under his soft white chin, forcing his head up. "Why, Lord Varys," he'd said pleasantly, "fancy meeting you here."

Varys is the Master of Whisperers. He has access to the entire castle, including the black cells. Jaime is Lord Commander of the Kings Guard. He can enter the dungeons at any time. But to do it secretly, he needs Varys. Nobody else can do this, so there is no reason to believe that Jaime would only come to Varys because Varys manipulated him into doing it.

How is Varys ordering Bronn and Chiggen to suddenly start following Tyrion instead of Catelyn when he is all the way back in King's Landing?

It's a chest. How high do you imagine the typical chest is? What good is a flimsy chest? 

Tywin, unarmed, unarmored, with his drawers down sitting on the crapper. I doubt Tyrion would have had much trouble with the dagger.

Sorry, I just see a lot of baseless theorizing here with no actual text or facts to back it up, and even the theorizing falls in on itself. But good luck with it.