Renly Baratheon the Early Years.

[frenin]

13 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Renly has no idea about that, does he? Or rather: You have no textual evidence that he knew about that because George didn't care about developing Relny enough so we understand what he is about.

"The Lannisters are not merciful". That sentence came from Renly's own lips.  He knew that his days were numbered with him in power.

 

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei would never do that - she is not in favor of a Tyrell alliance. Besides, as I've said, Loras and Renly can make Margaery the Lady of Storm's End and form an anti-Lannister alliance without actually crowning Renly. This is possible. Just as it would be possible for Renly to do all that with the ultimate goal to make himself king while not rushing things - sort of like Varys and Illyrio first wanted to Viserys III as a puppet and not rush things with Aegon.

Cersei would not do it but Tywin and Tyrion and every Lannister with brain would.

Mace wants his daughter to be Queen, it's not possible.

 

16 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

No, the best way of doing that is just to kill Cersei - or to remove her with the help of others. And one of those others could actually have been Tywin Lannister. If Renly the Fool had not crowned himself he could have been Hand of the King under a Lord Regent Tywin Lannister.

Likely killed under the orders of Lord Regent Tywin Lannister. 

Tywin wanted to deal with Stannis and Renly before he knew what they were up to.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

7 minutes ago, Ran said:

Yeah. Theories of Renly sitting on the sidelines or actually joining the Lannisters are nonstarters.

A nonstarter is the idea that a man has to make himself to protect himself from a woman. That is just nonsense. As is the Stannis apologetic nonsense that the man had to run to Dragonstone because 'Cersei was going to kill him, too' and 'He couldn't tell Robert about what he believed about the twincest because Robert would never possibly believe.'

All those are wrong dichotomies that aren't in the text.

And with Renly things are the least clear - we just don't know in detail what the thought and why he did when he did it. We just get post hoc justification like 'I had to crown myself because your husband didn't accept my offer'. Such things don't explain anything. Especially not if you compare them to the intricate explanations and motivations George gives to characters he cares about.

I will concede that one can be of the opinion that Renly working with Cersei may have made little sense, but I'm never going to concede that he had to make himself to save himself from her or the Lannisters in general. That is faulty reasoning, and I think the best confirmation for that is Tywin's genuine offer to make peace with Stannis after the Blackwater.

[Ran]

Renly as Hand of the King for Joffrey alongside Tywin....

17 minutes ago, frenin said:

"The Lannisters are not merciful". That sentence came from Renly's own lips.  He knew that his days were numbered with him in power.

Don't you understand that a character saying something is not the same as giving us insight into their views? Words are wind! 

 

[Lord Varys]

16 minutes ago, Ran said:

Renly as Hand of the King for Joffrey alongside Tywin....

On what level is that more ridiculous as Tywin staffing Joff/Tommen's council with Tyrells? Isn't that also him sharing power with powerful people pretending to compromise?

16 minutes ago, Ran said:

Don't you understand that a character saying something is not the same as giving us insight into their views? Words are wind! 

But the point here is that we don't know whether Renly as a person is more merciful than the Lannisters nor that Renly was an innocent guy simply fearing for his life and not, effectively, Cersei 2.0 willing to go as far as she to secure his power at court. The Margaery plot indicates he was willing to go very far considering there was actually no precedent for replacing one queen with another since the Conquest. Renly was willing to muddy the succession and throw Robert's court into chaos just to replace Cersei with Margaery. That makes him Cersei's equal - cuckolding the king isn't worse than Renly's plan.

Where is the difference between Renly and Cersei? Renly wanted to arrest Cersei and the royal children, including the designated king, which was treason twice over, whereas Cersei just ended up arresting Ned, and never intended to execute him despite his knowledge. She wasn't that merciless, now, was she?

And again, Tywin was willing to make peace with Stannis ... whereas Renly and Stanns tried to kill each other and were unwilling to compromise. Who is more merciful and who is less merciful?

[Morte]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Here the problem is that we don't know any details - do Renly and Cersei fear/hate each other because both want to dominate court and they know that about each other? Then both Cersei and Renly would be vile schemers seeing each other as rivals they have to destroy - and then Renly certainly doesn't 'defend himself by crowning himself' but actually follows his ultimate heart's desire to be king.

That's the problem: We don't know anything why and how their relationship went that bad. Especially if we consider that Renly would not be in his position very long, maybe one year or two?

52 minutes ago, Ran said:

I am not sure of that, myself. It seems to me a conclusion that anyone could have reached in his position, all things considered. I suppose Loras might have said, well, you should be king, then, and Renly ran with the idea... but I suspect it's something he could have come up with on his own easily enough.

Both is possible, I just don't see him running away from KL with the idea already formed, because I think his offer to Ned was genuine and he is essentially offering the power to Ned (according to Robert's will).

[frenin]

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Renly was willing to muddy the succession and throw Robert's court into chaos just to replace Cersei with Margaery. That makes him Cersei's equal - cuckolding the king isn't worse than Renly's plan.

Cersei's actions are treason and were the catalyst for one of Westeros's most devastating wars.  

Renly's simply isn't.

 

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Where is the difference between Renly and Cersei? Renly wanted to arrest Cersei and the royal children, including the designated king, which was treason twice over, whereas Cersei just ended up arresting Ned, and never intended to execute him despite his knowledge. She wasn't that merciless, now, was she?

Nothing Renly wanted to do was treason. Renly wanted to separate Cersei from the kids and put them under Ned's, the designated regent and now legal guardian of the children, watch.

 

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And again, Tywin was willing to make peace with Stannis ... whereas Renly and Stanns tried to kill each other and were unwilling to compromise. Who is more merciful and who is less merciful?

Tywin wasn't willing to make peace with Stannis, Tywin never answered Alester's letter.

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, Morte said:

That's the problem: We don't know anything why and how their relationship went that bad. Especially if we consider that Renly would not be in his position very long, maybe one year or two?

That is what I really would like to know. Both on Renly's end on Cersei's - with details about Renly's life as a young boy when Robert and Cersei first married, etc.

17 minutes ago, Morte said:

Both is possible, I just don't see him running away from KL with the idea already formed, because I think his offer to Ned was genuine and he is essentially offering the power to Ned (according to Robert's will).

From Renly's POV the point of that offer seems to me to give him control of the royal family and a crucial position in the new regency government. I cannot interpret Renly indifferently abandoning Ned as him having been very genuine there. He made an offer that would give him power, at the expense of the dying Robert and the emotional well-being/safety of his brother's children, but he was not willing to help Ned deal with any succession troubles unless he, Renly, profited from that to degree he wanted - which apparently included the arrest/neutralization of the queen. If Renly had been a decent person he would have at least Ned known that unless he was agreeing to his offer he could not count on him at all because he would then leave court immediately.

If you think about Ned's own severe issues with Cersei - both before and after he learns about the twincest - Renly comes across as a very cold fish there. And there is no explanation as why that is. What has Cersei ever done to Renly that he fears/hates her so much? Nothing, as far as we know.

And if one takes the Cressen narrative of 'Renly the rain god' seriously, then Renly must have always dreamed of the crown himself. That was the ultimate means to be at the center of attention, and it is the part he enjoys very much in ACoK - and basically the only justification he gives for crowning himself. 'Look at me, look at how glorious and beautiful and great a king I'm going to be.'

The idea that the idea to become king himself goes back to Tyrell ambition or an afterthought after Ned refuses his offer doesn't really convince me. Especially in light of the fact that the only Tyrells around Renly are Margaery and Loras. Garlan and Willas and Mace and none of the uncles, cousins, and women accompanied the progress/campaign despite the fact that Mace was named Renly's Hand. This indicates that the Tyrells themselves kept a curious distance to this king they supposedly made.

Instead, I think he may have started considering how he could get the throne from the moment he knew Robert was dying. And it makes sense that he would not admit this neither to Ned nor Catelyn since the former would not consider disinheriting/passing over/murdering Robert's children, nor the latter find it particularly great that he may have wanted to use her husband as pawn in his plan to seize the throne for himself.

[Morte]

26 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is what I really would like to know. Both on Renly's end on Cersei's - with details about Renly's life as a young boy when Robert and Cersei first married, etc.

Let's start a petition to Martin! But after he managed to finish TWoW, please?

27 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

From Renly's POV the point of that offer seems to me to give him control of the royal family and a crucial position in the new regency government. I cannot interpret Renly indifferently abandoning Ned as him having been very genuine there. He made an offer that would give him power, at the expense of the dying Robert and the emotional well-being/safety of his brother's children, but he was not willing to help Ned deal with any succession troubles unless he, Renly, profited from that to degree he wanted - which apparently included the arrest/neutralization of the queen. If Renly had been a decent person he would have at least Ned known that unless he was agreeing to his offer he could not count on him at all because he would then leave court immediately.

But we don't know what Renly thinks in that conversation. We just have Ned's view, who might look just as cold and stubborn (and honour-bound in a dire situation) for Renly, so I wouldn't judge him on this. We simply know too little.

35 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that the idea to become king himself goes back to Tyrell ambition or an afterthought after Ned refuses his offer doesn't really convince me.

Well, here we must agree to disagree, because I simply can't decide when and how Renly came up with the idea of becoming king. I'm quite sure it isn't in KL, but - I'm repeating myself, sorry - we simply don't know.

29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And if one takes the Cressen narrative of 'Renly the rain god' seriously, then Renly must have always dreamed of the crown himself. That was the ultimate means to be at the center of attention, and it is the part he enjoys very much in ACoK - and basically the only justification he gives for crowning himself. 'Look at me, look at how glorious and beautiful and great a king I'm going to be.'

I wouldn't give much about Cressen's, or for that part Donal Noye's, accounts about the B-boys. What I see in Cressen's story is a very lonely child without any friends his own age playing stories he has been told by the Maester with himself... Because who should he play with?

[Ran]

2 hours ago, Morte said:

But we don't know what Renly thinks in that conversation. We just have Ned's view, who might look just as cold and stubborn (and honour-bound in a dire situation) for Renly, so I wouldn't judge him on this. We simply know too little.

I feel like we did know, because he says:

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"I lacked the strength to act alone, so when Lord Eddard turned me away, I had no choice but to flee. Had I stayed, I knew the queen would see to it that I did not long outlive my brother."

And the thing is, we know that he is right, because it's pretty clear that Cersei wants Renly and Stannis dead. Renly understands it's because he and she didn't get along and she's power-hungry, Varys understands it's because those things but also because she doesn't want the black-haired, blue-eyed "uncles" (especially the one who has reason to believe they are not Robert's children) around reminding everyone that her kids don't look very much (at all) like their alleged father.

His offer to Ned was genuine, and his offer to Ned was the only chance Ned had. When Ned rejected it, Renly really had no choice, as he says. 

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I'm quite sure it isn't in KL

100% agreement. He was completely genuine in his offer in helping Ned secure the regency and did not at that time think of the crown. This has to come after he learns of Ned's arrest at the very earliest, which he may have thought extremely likely but since it wasn't absolutely sure there was no point starting to draw up plans when Ned could have surprised him and come out the other end in charge of the children and King's Landing without his help.

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I wouldn't give much about Cressen's, or for that part Donal Noye's, accounts about the B-boys.

Yep. As George said, their accounts say as much about them as it does about the Baratheon boys. Cressen's particular love for Stannis makes him take Renly in a particular way

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What I see in Cressen's story is a very lonely child without any friends his own age playing stories he has been told by the Maester with himself... Because who should he play with?

Indeed. And to say that his behavior as a boy meant that oh, of course he wanted the crown because he always wanted to be the center of attention... was Robb plotting to be a king when he shouted that he was the Young Dragon when playing with Jon? Jeebus. The main thing that Cressen's recollection of Renly as a boy tells us is the very thing he says -- he liked colorful and beautiful things, was extroverted, had a lively imagination. None of this means he spent any time in KL thinking that he ought to be king. 

[Bernie Mac]

3 hours ago, frenin said:

 

 

Tywin wasn't willing to make peace with Stannis, Tywin never answered Alester's letter.

That letter was never sent. Salladhor told Alester he had a man who could deliver a letter to Tywin, but clearly Salladhor sold Alester out and Alester ended up arrested. At least that is how it reads to me.

I think Tywin would have turned down such a deal. idiotic to cede Dragonstone and the Stormlands to Stannis, even if it was for the shorterm, when he had just been beaten, but it also does not seem that he was aware of the Florents willing to make a deal.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Morte said:

Let's start a petition to Martin! But after he managed to finish TWoW, please?

The point being is that George already can do stuff like that in TWoW - he would just have Stannis complain some more about stuff we don't already know, i.e. that he didn't like Robert very much, and have him bitch a little bit about Renly instead. He could give us great insight into Robert's reign while Jon Arryn was still around and how Littlefinger and Renly got their positions, etc.

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But we don't know what Renly thinks in that conversation. We just have Ned's view, who might look just as cold and stubborn (and honour-bound in a dire situation) for Renly, so I wouldn't judge him on this. We simply know too little.

I think we can judge as a cold and calculating guy for abandoning Ned to those merciless Lannisters.

But the be actually precise, let's look at the actual exchange:

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Cayn and Tomard were helping Ned across the bridge when Lord Renly emerged from Maegor’s Holdfast. “Lord Eddard,” he called after Ned, “a moment, if you would be so kind.”

Ned stopped. “As you wish.”

Renly walked to his side. “Send your men away.” They met in the center of the bridge, the dry moat beneath them. Moonlight silvered the cruel edges of the spikes that lined its bed.

Ned gestured. Tomard and Cayn bowed their heads and backed away respectfully. Lord Renly glanced warily at Ser Boros on the far end of the span, at Ser Preston in the doorway behind them. “That letter.” He leaned close. “Was it the regency? Has my brother named you Protector?” He did not wait for a reply. “My lord, I have thirty men in my personal guard, and other friends beside, knights and lords. Give me an hour, and I can put a hundred swords in your hand.”

“And what should I do with a hundred swords, my lord?”

“Strike! Now, while the castle sleeps.” Renly looked back at Ser Boros again and dropped his voice to an urgent whisper. “We must get Joffrey away from his mother and take him in hand. Protector or no, the man who holds the king holds the kingdom. We should seize Myrcella and Tommen as well. Once we have her children, Cersei will not dare oppose us. The council will confirm you as Lord Protector and make Joffrey your ward.”

Ned regarded him coldly. “Robert is not dead yet. The gods may spare him. If not, I shall convene the council to hear his final words and consider the matter of the succession, but I will not dishonor his last hours on earth by shedding blood in his halls and dragging frightened children from their beds.”

Lord Renly took a step back, taut as a bowstring. “Every moment you delay gives Cersei another moment to prepare. By the time Robert dies, it may be too late…for both of us.”

“Then we should pray that Robert does not die.”

“Small chance of that,” said Renly.

“Sometimes the gods are merciful.”

“The Lannisters are not.” Lord Renly turned away and went back across the moat, to the tower where his brother lay dying.

This makes it clear that Renly actually had no intention to harm or even seize Cersei there - at least not according to his suggestion. He wanted to control the person of the future king and the persons of his two siblings. Not Cersei.

He expects Cersei to fight Ned on the matter of the regency - and he is correct there - but he doesn't indicate directly there that he expects Cersei to kill either him or Ned.

That he later says he expected Cersei to kill him and had to crown himself in 'self-defense' means nothing when you keep in mind it happened after Ned's execution and was said to Ned's widow who he lied to a couple of times in their conversation (support from Dorne, possibly army size, and definitely the idea that Stannis would stand with him, Renly, against the Lannisters).

The question one has to interpret here is whether one thinks Renly thinks the 'evil Lannisters' would have been not merciful to Lord Renly the charming and nice royal uncle, or Lord Renly the scheming, evil traitor who wanted to replace the rightful Queen of the Seven Kingdoms with a Tyrell pawn.

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Well, here we must agree to disagree, because I simply can't decide when and how Renly came up with the idea of becoming king. I'm quite sure it isn't in KL, but - I'm repeating myself, sorry - we simply don't know.

I'm not saying he knew that himself already, but I'm sure he started to see himself as king more and more while he was looking on the dying ruin of Robert's body. Renly isn't particularly concerned with his brother's death, he is calm and in control and thinks and speaks politics. He doesn't care about Robert and his family or even Ned, only what's in it for him in all that. Perhaps he wasn't sure how to gain the crown for himself yet, perhaps he wasn't even sure he would dare claim it for himself, but he must have been thinking about it. Everybody who eventually lays claim to a throne has thought about the prospect many times before - especially any person with as a weak a legal claim as Renly.

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I wouldn't give much about Cressen's, or for that part Donal Noye's, accounts about the B-boys. What I see in Cressen's story is a very lonely child without any friends his own age playing stories he has been told by the Maester with himself... Because who should he play with?

Well, the issue there is if we those judgments aren't worth anything - and George himself actually made it clear that he doesn't think Noye's assessment is 'the truth' - then they don't have a much of a point in the narrative.

The overall characterization of 'King Renly' in ACoK is that Renly wanted to be king because he felt like it and because he thought he could do a good job. That's basically the gist of the Cressen assessment as well, both in the anecdote about young Renly as well as what comes up in Cressen's talk about Renly in the Prologue. Renly as we meet him later in the book pretty much fits the Cressen description. In that sense I feel pretty confident to draw a line from Cressen to Renly's self-involved speeches.

With Noye's that different since the man never knew Renly all that well, nor is his copper analogy a good assessment of the character but rather a sort of meta-foreshadowing of his early demise and his general insignificance as a character. And it might prove to be a meta-foreshadowing in the case of Stannis as well, since we can be reasonably certain that George is going to break Stannis before he allows him to die. It might be the sacrifice of Shireen that's going to break Stannis, or some other heinous thing he does, but before he dies or kill himself he will be a broken shell of the man he once was. That is something like we can expect - and Noye would have then sort of foreseen that.

The one real mischaracterization of Noye's would be Robert as 'true steel'. Renly is right in his assessment that he was a much better version of Robert than Robert himself - and he would have been a much better king, husband, and father than Robert ever was. Even with all the issues that his violent rise to throne would have inevitably caused.

1 hour ago, Ran said:

I feel like we did know, because he says:

It seems to me that Renly is wrong there that he didn't have the strength to act alone. I mean, count the men Ned had left at that point. How many guardsmen did he have left? Twenty? How much of a difference would those men have made in coup in the night with Renly 100+ men sneaking inside Maegor's Holdfast and overwhelming what guardsmen were stationed there (couldn't have been that many).

Ned would have given Renly legitimacy since he was the Hand and the future regent, but he couldn't have offered him a lot of muscle.

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And the thing is, we know that he is right, because it's pretty clear that Cersei wants Renly and Stannis dead. Renly understands it's because he and she didn't get along and she's power-hungry, Varys understands it's because those things but also because she doesn't want the black-haired, blue-eyed "uncles" around reminding everyone that her kids don't look very much (at all) like their alleged father.

Again, we don't know why Renly and Cersei didn't get along - perhaps it was because both of them were power-hungry and not just one of them. You seem to have the impression Renly was some nice guy with no ambition.

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His offer to Ned was genuine, and his offer to Ned was the only chance Ned had. When Ned rejected it, Renly really had no choice, as he says. 

We can agree that Renly may have then felt he had no other choice but to leave. But he certainly had dozens of other choices aside from crowning himself. And that is the major issue I have - that faulty dichotomy of 'Renly as Cersei's innocent victim' or 'Renly the self-defense king'.

I mean, do you really believe Renly crowning himself king had no effect on how the administration of King Joffrey would view him? Like the crowning of Robb later did also change their approach to the Starks?

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100% agreement. He was completely genuine in his offer in helping Ned secure the regency and did not at that time think of the crown. This has to come after he learns of Ned's arrest at the very earliest, which he may have thought extremely likely but since it wasn't absolutely sure there was no point starting to draw up plans when Ned could have surprised him and come out the other end in charge of the children and King's Landing without his help.

Thinking about the crown is not the same as having a plan. My idea is that Renly could have had already designs at the crown and/or supreme power in KL when he made his offer to Ned - he could have intended to ride Ned to power, so to speak, become the other big guy in the regency government, then take Robert's place as Margaery Tyrell's husband, gaining more and more power until he could rid himself of Joffrey and make himself king. That wouldn't have been that hard, necessarily.

Once he left the capital he certainly wouldn't have known what to do at once, and I'd be the last one to doubt that Ned's arrest would have influenced his decision, just as said decisions would have been influenced if Ned had prevailed with Littlefinger's help because he had agreed to not crown Stannis and go along with Joffrey for the time being.

And speaking about that: I've long believed that this offer Littlefinger's there was genuine, and that Littlefinger's idea to eventually make Renly king wasn't an idea out of nowhere - instead it may have been something Littlefinger knew Renly actually wanted. From a pragmatic point of view the horse Littlefinger and Slynt were backing after they arranged Ned's execution wouldn't have been Joff - who they had been actively undermining with this - but Renly. Littlefinger and Slynt could have handed the city over to a King Renly knocking at the door with his huge army bloodlessly considering they controlled the City Watch.

It is only Tyrion's arrival and the dismissal of Slynt that makes such a scenario more difficult. But from the perspective of a man like Littlefinger Renly was the man to back. Stannis was impossible for him as king, and was lacking support. The Lannisters were too haughty, with Cersei's refusal to grant Littlefinger Sansa's hand triggering his decision to kill Ned so they would have more problems, but Renly was a guy with whom Littlefinger got along splendidly.

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Indeed. And to say that his behavior as a boy meant that oh, of course he wanted the crown because he always wanted to be the center of attention... was Robb plotting to be a king when he shouted that he was the Young Dragon when playing with Jon? Jeebus. The main thing that Cressen's recollection of Renly as a boy tells us is the very thing he says -- he liked colorful and beautiful things, was extroverted, had a lively imagination. None of this means he spent any time in KL thinking that he ought to be king. 

See above. The impression we are going to get is that Renly's character is what caused him to want to be king. And this seems to be a correct assessment. Cressen doesn't just talk about colorful things and stuff - he talks about a boy who liked to be the center of attention. That's different than merely being extrovert. The crucial stuff there is that Renly used the whole 'Look at me' phrase:

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It was just the sort of notion that would appeal to Renly Baratheon; a splendid new order of knighthood, with gorgeous new raiment to proclaim it. Even as a boy, Renly had loved bright colors and rich fabrics, and he had loved his games as well. “Look at me!” he would shout as he ran laughing through the halls of Storm’s End. “Look at me, I’m a dragon,” or “Look at me, I’m a wizard,” or “Look at me, look at me, I’m the rain god.”

The bold little boy with wild black hair and laughing eyes was a man grown now, one-and-twenty, and still he played his games. Look at me, I’m a king, Cressen thought sadly. Oh, Renly, Renly, dear sweet child, do you know what you are doing? And would you care if you did? Is there anyone who cares for him but me?

To me, Cressen certainly misjudges Renly's character insofar as he believes Renly would consider what he is doing a game - he knows what he is doing and he knows what he wants and how to get it and what he has to do to get it. There he seems to make the same mistake as he does with Stannis, being unable to believe the man would be capable of murdering his own brother. That is a common flaw in parents or surrogate parents, being unable to understand that (your) children no longer are children - and nice and innocent like children.

But he is dead-on as to what character flaws in Renly cause him to enjoy the prospect of being king.

17 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

That letter was never sent. Salladhor told Alester he had a man who could deliver a letter to Tywin, but clearly Salladhor sold Alester out and Alester ended up arrested. At least that is how it reads to me.

I think Tywin would have turned down such a deal. idiotic to cede Dragonstone and the Stormlands to Stannis, even if it was for the shorterm, when he had just been beaten, but it also does not seem that he was aware of the Florents willing to make a deal.

Might be I'm wrong there, would have to double-check that. However, if Alester never started to even broach the subject with Tywin the man would be completely innocent and Stannis' arresting and eventually executing him all the more condemning. It would rank among his worst acts so far, to be honest.

Addendum: Yes, you are right, it is as bad as that. Thus this is just 'attempted treason done with the best of intentions which wouldn't have been binding to Stannis even if it had been accepted by Tywin'.

Although I'd say that Alester's belief Tywin would accept such a bargain - especially sind it involved Stannis publicly retracting his claims about Cersei's children - is actually pretty realistic. Especially in the aftermath of the Red Wedding where the Lannisters should try their best to appear somewhat less cruel and bloodthirsty.

But it is clear I was wrong with the claim that Tywin actually accepted this idea.

[Ran]

1 hour ago, Bernie Mac said:

I think Tywin would have turned down such a deal. idiotic to cede Dragonstone and the Stormlands to Stannis, even if it was for the shorterm, when he had just been beaten, but it also does not seem that he was aware of the Florents willing to make a deal.

True. That said, Tywin also did not send out any demands  or offers for Stannis's surrender. The basic point remains that Tywin never considered Stannis a person he could or should deal with diplomatically. He was an implacable enemy to be destroyed, not someone who could be coaxed into surrender, from the very start. 

[Lord Varys]

30 minutes ago, Ran said:

True. That said, Tywin also did not send out any demands  or offers for Stannis's surrender. The basic point remains that Tywin never considered Stannis a person he could or should deal with diplomatically. He was an implacable enemy to be destroyed, not someone who could be coaxed into surrender, from the very start. 

For Stannis we have evidence how Tywin viewed him - but we don't have such evidence for his view of Renly. You cannot treat the Lannisters en bloc, especially with the template is Cersei, and you cannot treat Renly and Stannis en bloc, either.

Stannis isn't a guy you can easily negotiate with - but Renly is a different guy. If 'the Lannisters' can treat with Lysa Arryn and Doran Martell, there is no reason why they couldn't treat with Renly under certain circumstances - one of which would be Renly not declaring himself king.

[Peach King]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Renly has no idea about that, does he? Or rather: You have no textual evidence that he knew about that because George didn't care about developing Relny enough so we understand what he is about..

I feel he does know about that, since he tells Ned the Lannisters have no mercy and that he expected Cersei to oppose them. Also, we aren't told exactly why Cersei had problems with Renly either, or why Stannis had problems with the Lannisters, but I'm sure GRRM didn't think he'd have to go into that level of detail since the answers are obvious.

Renly didn't want Cersei around because she was much more influential than him or Stannis , he knew how she dealt with people who posed a danger to her son's life (the Mycah incident for one, and maybe similar things occurred during Renly's time at court), and because she is the daughter of a man known for his treachery and brutality (and a sister of one too). 

Cersei didn't like Renly because she doesn't like anyone. Especially anyone who could combat her power. 

Rhaenyra and Alicent were at odds as soon as Alicent had two sons, which challenged the succession. 

Also Cersei is not subtle, nor is Joffrey - I'm sure the frequent glares or spiteful comments would be enough to tell he wouldn't be welcome in a Lannister controlled court. The first time we see Renly, Joffrey looked at him with the "outmost contempt". 

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Cersei would never do that - she is not in favor of a Tyrell alliance. Besides, as I've said, Loras and Renly can make Margaery the Lady of Storm's End and form an anti-Lannister alliance without actually crowning Renly. This is possible. Just as it would be possible for Renly to do all that with the ultimate goal to make himself king while not rushing things - sort of like Varys and Illyrio first wanted to Viserys III as a puppet and not rush things with Aegon.

Yeah but Tywin would do that. Besides a major factor why Cersei didn't want Margaery married to Joffrey was because she was "Renly's leavings" but that wouldn't be a factor here. There is no reason for the Tyrells to settle for Margaery being Lady of Storm's End  when they could make her queen.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

No, the best way of doing that is just to kill Cersei - or to remove her with the help of others. And one of those others could actually have been Tywin Lannister. If Renly the Fool had not crowned himself he could have been Hand of the King under a Lord Regent Tywin Lannister.

There is no guarantee Renly is ever given the Handship by Tywin. Tywin would understand that you shouldn't give your potential enemies too much power. Renly might be the Lannisters' friend today, but he might not be tomorrow, and Tywin understands treachery all too well, considering what he did to Aerys. 

There is no reason for Renly to think Tywin would be accommodating - Tywin is hated and feared by all for the Reynes and Tarbecks and for the Sack of King's Landing. 

What's more likely is that Tywin takes on the role of both Hand and Regent. Or gives the Regent position to Kevan. But when Renly was last in KL, it was Cersei he was afraid of, and it was Cersei who assumed the reins of power, so Renly was thinking of his rebellion in terms of what Cersei or Joffrey would do.

[Lord Varys]

54 minutes ago, Peach King said:

I feel he does know about that, since he tells Ned the Lannisters have no mercy and that he expected Cersei to oppose them. Also, we aren't told exactly why Cersei had problems with Renly either, or why Stannis had problems with the Lannisters, but since we're all reasonably smart here I'm sure GRRM didn't think he'd have to go into that level of detail.

George didn't bother to develop Renly as a character all that much. Nor did he bother to develop Cersei very much in AGoT. The first time we get a real glimpse at her as a character is in the first Tyrion chapter in ACoK - when they actually discuss politics.

54 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Renly didn't want Cersei around because she was much more influential than him or Stannis , he knew how she dealt with people who posed a danger to her son's life (the Mycah incident for one, and maybe similar things occurred during Renly's time at court), and because she is the daughter of a man known for his treachery and brutality (and a sister of one too). 

That is all speculation and as I told you already - there is no indication Renly gave a damn about the Mycah incident. He ridiculed Joffrey in front of the assembled court, using this whole thing as an opportunity to mock the Heir Apparent.

54 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Cersei didn't like Renly because she doesn't like anyone. Especially anyone who could combat her power. 

Rhaenyra and Alicent were at odds as soon as Alicent had two sons, which challenged the succession. 

Also Cersei is not subtle, nor is Joffrey - I'm sure the frequent glares or spiteful comments would be enough to tell he wouldn't be welcome in a Lannister controlled court. The first time we see Renly, Joffrey looked at him with the "outmost contempt". 

Sure, we know they don't like each other, nobody ever doubted that. But who don't like each other can still work together and I still want to actually know why they don't like each other and not come up with explanations myself. I don't read books because I don't want to know things but to know them ;-).

54 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Yeah but Tywin would do that. Besides a major factor why Cersei didn't want Margaery married to Joffrey was because she was "Renly's leavings" but that wouldn't be a factor here. There is no reason for the Tyrells to settle for Margaery being Lady of Storm's End  when they could make her queen.

That is all not a given. When Renly leaves even the regency thing isn't settled - will it be Ned or Cersei? If it had been Ned things would have been different, if Ned hadn't been executed Sansa may have remained Joff's betrothed ... and the crucial thing is that Loras Tyrell didn't like the Lannisters much, either, did he? First, because Renly apparently didn't like them, and because of that whole Gregor Clegane affair, one assumes.

The idea that the Tyrells would go to bed with the Lannisters unless Renly declares himself king and marries Margaery is ridiculous.

54 minutes ago, Peach King said:

There is no guarantee Renly is ever given the Handship by Tywin. Tywin would understand that you shouldn't give your potential enemies too much power. Renly might be the Lannisters' friend today, but he might not be tomorrow, and Tywin understands treachery all too well, considering what he did to Aerys. 

Tywin staffed his entire council with Tyrells, and intended to bring in even more with Garth. Why should Renly be more dangerous than a bunch Tyrells? And of course there is no guarantee for anything in a hypothetical scenario. I'm not saying Renly and Tywin should have worked together, I'm saying those were options Renly could have tried to take or considered before deciding to crown himself and thus burn bridges with, effectively, any decent and law-abiding person in the Realm, including his own family.

54 minutes ago, Peach King said:

There is no reason for Renly to think Tywin would be accommodating - Tywin is hated and feared by all for the Reynes and Tarbecks and for the Sack of King's Landing. 

Tywin is feared and respected all across the Seven Kingdoms. He is hated by some, but definitely not by all. And the man can be reasonable, even tries to teach reason to his royal grandson.

54 minutes ago, Peach King said:

What's more likely is that Tywin takes on the role of both Hand and Regent. Or gives the Regent position to Kevan. But when Renly was last in KL, it was Cersei he was afraid of, and it was Cersei who assumed the reins of power, so Renly was thinking of his rebellion in terms of what Cersei or Joffrey would do.

The regent is the guy in charge, not the Hand, so in a scenario where the offices would be split up Tywin would keep the regency, not hand it to somebody else.

Bottom line is - I don't see Renly as a nice guy who 'self-defended' himself all the way to crown. That's just nonsense. I see him as a pragmatic, calculating guy with a pleasant demeanor who knew what he wanted - which, ultimately, was the Iron Throne. Which, in my opinion, is why he decided to crown himself.

If he hadn't had that ultimate design he would have shown more caution after he left court. He would have called his banners, would have teamed up with the Tyrells, would have contacted Stannis, would have tested the waters if there was a way to break the Lannister hold on the regency government peacefully - say, by ways of a Great Council.

Only people who want to be king crown themselves.

If crowning yourself was the only way to protect yourself from the Lannisters why didn't Doran Martell secede from the Iron Throne after Robert's death? Or better still - why didn't he crown himself King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men on the basis that he was a descendant of King Aegon IV Targaryen - claim-wise that would have been almost as good as 'Renly's claim' (that is hyperbole, to a point)? Why didn't Lysa Arryn crown her son Robert King of Mountain and Vale again - his Arryn blood gives him claim for that and it definitely would have sent the message to the Iron Throne that the Vale was against the Lannisters?

There we see that this wasn't the only way, that many other roads were theoretically and practically available for Renly. The issue just is that the man didn't want to (try to) take any of those roads. Or George didn't bother enough with the character to explain why he did what he decided to do.

I mean, we discussed this earlier already - I want to know why the hell all the Reach and the Stormlands thought so little of Robert Baratheon and his legal children that they would want Robert's youngest brother to be king? I think this is an underdeveloped plot line. That worked somewhat back in ACoK when apparently nobody though much about blood claims since neither Robert nor Renly had much of a blood claim to the Iron Throne - but even then this didn't fit well together with Ned's and Robb's clear view on succession issues - but when it was revealed that the Baratheons basically were next in line after the children of Aerys II and Rhaella it doesn't fit at all that those people following Renly would buy his narrative that nobody cares about claims and stuff.

[The Grey Wolf]

@Lord Varys

The Stormlands are 1) The most underwritten (in ASOIAF, TWOIAF, F & B V1) and 2) The least cohesive (nevermind what we are told about Dorne).

[Peach King]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George didn't bother to develop Renly as a character all that much. Nor did he bother to develop Cersei very much in AGoT. The first time we get a real glimpse at her as a character is in the first Tyrion chapter in ACoK - when they actually discuss politics.

Let's not derail things - the original point is that Renly did know Cersei was out to get him.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is all speculation and as I told you already - there is no indication Renly gave a damn about the Mycah incident. He ridiculed Joffrey in front of the assembled court, using this whole thing as an opportunity to mock the Heir Apparent.

 

 

It is not speculation, we are told the Lannisters are feared and hated by the people of KL and we are told why. And as I have said before, I didn't mean to imply Renly had his conscience troubled by what happened to Mycah, it's just that it would give him a good idea of what to expect from Cersei.

Renly to Cersei is what Jon is to Catelyn, someone who her husband brought home (or to court) all of a sudden, someone who could challenge her children's claims to Winterfell (or the throne).

Btw, I don't think Renly ever says he hated the Lannisters. He fears them though, and for good reason.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Sure, we know they don't like each other, nobody ever doubted that. But who don't like each other can still work together and I still want to actually know why they don't like each other and not come up with explanations myself. I don't read books because I don't want to know things but to know them ;-).

So you're saying you want GRRM to spoonfeed you.

Even if they were allies, it's a precarious peace - as we see from ASOS and AFFC, Cersei absolutely hates the Tyrells and tries to undermine them at every turn. 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is all not a given. When Renly leaves even the regency thing isn't settled - will it be Ned or Cersei? If it had been Ned things would have been different, if Ned hadn't been executed Sansa may have remained Joff's betrothed ... and the crucial thing is that Loras Tyrell didn't like the Lannisters much, either, did he? First, because Renly apparently didn't like them, and because of that whole Gregor Clegane affair, one assumes.

Renly had doubts about Ned winning a power struggle unless they struck when Robert lay dying, and as it turns out, he was right.

Renly was fine with Ned being Regent, it was Cersei he had problems with.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that the Tyrells would go to bed with the Lannisters unless Renly declares himself king and marries Margaery is ridiculous.

It is not ridiculous, it's the logical outcome.  Even if it's not a logical outcome, it's a significant risk. Olenna tells us that Mace wanted Margaery to be queen and that the idea of a grandson on the throne makes him puff up. This is an opportunity to do all that without ever becoming traitors, and Joffrey was mostly an unknown entity by that time in ACOK so they wouldn't be troubled by that either.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin staffed his entire council with Tyrells, and intended to bring in even more with Garth. Why should Renly be more dangerous than a bunch Tyrells? And of course there is no guarantee for anything in a hypothetical scenario. I'm not saying Renly and Tywin should have worked together, I'm saying those were options Renly could have tried to take or considered before deciding to crown himself and thus burn bridges with, effectively, any decent and law-abiding person in the Realm, including his own family..

He didn't make any of them Hand, did he? Even if Tywin and Renly worked together - Cersei would still be regent. Tywin and Kevan weren't able to cow her into giving up the position. 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Tywin is feared and respected all across the Seven Kingdoms. He is hated by some, but definitely not by all. And the man can be reasonable, even tries to teach reason to his royal grandson.

He is hated by the majority, no one even came to his funeral. And Renly wouldn't know about Tywin's conversations with Joffrey. What he would know is that Tywin backstabbed his own king to keep the Lannisters in power.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The regent is the guy in charge, not the Hand, so in a scenario where the offices would be split up Tywin would keep the regency, not hand it to somebody else.

OK, so Tywin would be Regent, and Kevan would be Hand. No space for Renly.

Also there's no reason why Cersei wouldn't be Regent, and Tywin Hand, like what actually happened. 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Bottom line is - I don't see Renly as a nice guy who 'self-defended' himself all the way to crown. That's just nonsense. I see him as a pragmatic, calculating guy with a pleasant demeanor who knew what he wanted - which, ultimately, was the Iron Throne. Which, in my opinion, is why he decided to crown himself.

If he hadn't had that ultimate design he would have shown more caution after he left court. He would have called his banners, would have teamed up with the Tyrells, would have contacted Stannis, would have tested the waters if there was a way to break the Lannister hold on the regency government peacefully - say, by ways of a Great Council.

Only people who want to be king crown themselves.

Who ever argued Renly was a good guy? All I've said is that crowning himself was the best choice in a sea of bad choices. 

He did team up with the Tyrells - and the condition required was that he made Margaery queen. Any scenario where Renly rebels against the Lannisters and tries to make himself Regent to Joffrey is foolish for many reasons, reasons which I've already spelled out. 

Since Stannis is seen as a dutiful man, Renly had no reason to believe he would rebel against Joffrey.

As for a Great Council, it takes months to convene, as the last Great Council showed (which took a half year). The realm was also at war and travel wasn't safe. Also AFAIK only kings can call Great Councils .

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If crowning yourself was the only way to protect yourself from the Lannisters why didn't Doran Martell secede from the Iron Throne after Robert's death? Or better still - why didn't he crown himself King of the Andals, the Rhoynar, and the First Men on the basis that he was a descendant of King Aegon IV Targaryen - claim-wise that would have been almost as good as 'Renly's claim' (that is hyperbole, to a point)? Why didn't Lysa Arryn crown her son Robert King of Mountain and Vale again - his Arryn blood gives him claim for that and it definitely would have sent the message to the Iron Throne that the Vale was against the Lannisters?

There we see that this wasn't the only way, that many other roads were theoretically and practically available for Renly. The issue just is that the man didn't want to (try to) take any of those roads. Or George didn't bother enough with the character to explain why he did what he decided to do.

Dorne and The Vale are basically impregnable, unlike Storm's End.

Doran didn't secede from the Iron Throne or crown himself because he wanted a Targaryen restoration. Which is why he planned to marry Arianne to Viserys, and failing that, Quentyn to Daenerys.

Lysa didn't crown Robert Arryn king because she didn't need to - the Eyrie is impregnable.

See, this just underlines my point - even when Doran "allied" himself with the Lannisters, he was secretly plotting behind their backs to put a Targaryen on the throne. The Sandsnakes and Arianne even wanted to kill all Lannisters and make Myrcella queen. And Cersei was against the betrothal from the very beginning, so it's reasonable to think she would be against Renly being Hand, or being on the Small Council, or maybe even Renly having Storm's End, since it was supposed to go to Tommen, anyway. Why should Renly play politics with Cersei when he could just get rid of her.

[Peach King]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The idea that the idea to become king himself goes back to Tyrell ambition or an afterthought after Ned refuses his offer doesn't really convince me. Especially in light of the fact that the only Tyrells around Renly are Margaery and Loras. Garlan and Willas and Mace and none of the uncles, cousins, and women accompanied the progress/campaign despite the fact that Mace was named Renly's Hand. This indicates that the Tyrells themselves kept a curious distance to this king they supposedly made.

 

That's not true. From a Catelyn chapter in ACOK:

Quote

The golden rose of Highgarden was seen everywhere: sewn on the right breast of armsmen and servants, flapping and fluttering from the green silk banners that adorned lance and pike, painted upon the shields hung outside the pavilions of the sons and brothers and cousins and uncles of House Tyrell.

 

Quote

Renly isn't particularly concerned with his brother's death, he is calm and in control and thinks and speaks politics. He doesn't care about Robert and his family or even Ned, only what's in it for him in all that. Perhaps he wasn't sure how to gain the crown for himself yet, perhaps he wasn't even sure he would dare claim it for himself, but he must have been thinking about it. Everybody who eventually lays claim to a throne has thought about the prospect many times before - especially any person with as a weak a legal claim as Renly.

Not true - Ned notices he's not calm or in control, in fact he's sweating and agitated, and he's also pacing around the room.

Second part is also not true - We don't know what goes on in Renly's mind.

Third part is also not true, Cressen says Renly is impulsive and so does Catelyn, it's perfectly in character for him to crown himself on the spur of the moment. 

[Lord Varys]

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Let's not derail things - the original point is that Renly did know Cersei was out to get him.

He did not know this. He claims this post hoc after Ned had been executed by Joffrey when talking to his widow. And he doesn't actually use words that suggest execution there, he seems to be talking about covert murder - Cersei would have seen that he didn't live that long. That smells to me like this standard 'women are evil poisoners' slander. Cersei did a lot of ugly things but so far she never poisoned anyone, nor ever commanded or considered something like that.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

It is not speculation, we are told the Lannisters are feared and hated by the people of KL and we are told why. And as I have said before, I didn't mean to imply Renly had his conscience troubled by what happened to Mycah, it's just that it would give him a good idea of what to expect from Cersei.

Kingslanders loathe them because of that sack, but that's just the Kingslanders. And yes, Cersei is proud and vain, and people dislike that she has the ear of the king and stuff, but that's standard issue. A lot of people in high places are loathed by people who would like to be in their place. The kind of rumor Cat brings to Ned - about the pride of the Lannister queen growing with each year actually sounds like straight out of a fairy-tale book. Could be Snow White's stepmother talking to her magic mirror.

The idea that a queen can easily afford to execute a brother of the old and uncle of the new king easily doesn't hold much water. As things stand Ned's execution nearly destroyed the Lannister reign, if they had also executed Renly they wouldn't have survived that.

And again - the issue here is that I don't buy for a moment Renly was happy with just being the Master of Law of new King Joffrey. He wanted more, and he wanted that with Ned's help, and he correctly estimated Cersei wouldn't give it to him if she ran the new government. So he left. And he did not crown himself to save his life. He had already saved his life/freedom by running away.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Renly to Cersei is what Jon is to Catelyn, someone who her husband brought home (or to court) all of a sudden, someone who could challenge her children's claims to Winterfell (or the throne).

There is no indication that Renly came to court 'all of a sudden', nor is his mere existence a reason for Cersei - even a Cersei who gave the king no legitimate children - to see him as a threat. For that, there has to be more. Much more, in fact, considering that Renly was just a boy when Cersei and Robert married and Cersei could easily enough become some sort of surrogate mother to him.

This is the kind of underdevelopment I'm talking about here. If this didn't happen in a vacuum then there is a Renly-Cersei history spanning fifteen years, most of Renly's life. And there would be a history why that relationship ended the way it did. But we don't know anything about that at all.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Btw, I don't think Renly ever says he hated the Lannisters. He fears them though, and for good reason.

He never says he fears them - he just says he expects Cersei to prepare for a fight and that the Lannisters are not merciful - which we don't know whether it refers to his fear or his fear for Ned. Keep in mind that unlike Renly Ned was the guy who had actually taken the Lannisters head on. He was the one whose wife abducted Tyrion, he was the one who came to blows with Jaime in the streets. Renly and Cersei's men never fought over anything.

This is also part of the Baratheon underdevelopment issue - Renly has no personal guard with him, no equivalent to the Stark and Lannister household guards (which he should have as a member of the royal family and a great lord in his own right), just as there are no Baratheon men whatsoever in the city or at court. Robert doesn't seem to have any Stormlander buddies at all, and neither does Renly until ACoK.

And if there were severe tensions between the Lannisters and Lord Renly, then we would have to expect there to be tensions between their retinues and retainers - their men coming to blows in inns and in the yard, etc. But there is none of that, either. People of high birth usually express their displeasure openly for all the world to see - just as they don't keep their grudges privately. The Blacks and Greens also didn't hate each other privately.

But Renly-Cersei is just underdeveloped. As is Stannis-Cersei.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

So you're saying you want GRRM to spoonfeed you.

I just want more context and an actual plot and not just some cryptic lines I can then use to create my own narrative. This is especially annoying with Renly's obscure Margaery plot - how the hell did Renly think he could replace Cersei with Margaery exactly? How would that have worked? And how did Cersei think Robert could actually set her aside as a wife when she had given him three children, was the daughter of the most powerful man in the Realm to whom the Crown was very much indebted.

This all feels as if it has little to no substance, very much unlike later plot points which feel and are much more developed.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Even if they were allies, it's a precarious peace - as we see from ASOS and AFFC, Cersei absolutely hates the Tyrells and tries to undermine them at every turn. 

Cersei changes due to all the stuff that happens to her, but Cersei isn't 'the Lannisters'.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

It is not ridiculous, it's the logical outcome.  Even if it's not a logical outcome, it's a significant risk. Olenna tells us that Mace wanted Margaery to be queen and that the idea of a grandson on the throne makes him puff up. This is an opportunity to do all that without ever becoming traitors, and Joffrey was mostly an unknown entity by that time in ACOK so they wouldn't be troubled by that either.

No, that isn't the logical outcome at all. For one, as you would know, Mace's favorite son, Loras Tyrell, flees from court with Renly. Are you going to tell me Loras would have advised his old man to marry Margaery to the son of the woman he just ran away from? If the Tyrells had any intention to marry Margaery to Joffrey why the hell didn't Loras tell his lover that he can run away himself - and stayed at court offering Queen Cersei the swords and gold and support of House Tyrell if King Joffrey would marry his sister?

After all, if we believe Renly didn't want the crown at the time of the escape, and if a marriage alliance was the price he had to pay to the Tyrells, then Loras could have arranged this match for Margaery with King Joffrey much easier if he had stayed behind.

There are other weird issues there, too. Renly wanted to get a hundred men for Ned, and he fled not with Loras and himself alone, but he and Loras left behind the Redwyne twins, Loras's own first cousins and pretty crucial and high-ranking people. Why was that?

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

He didn't make any of them Hand, did he? Even if Tywin and Renly worked together - Cersei would still be regent. Tywin and Kevan weren't able to cow her into giving up the position. 

Tywin rules once he arrives in the capital, no matter the title. Cersei never really pushed the issue, although she could have and if she had played her cards right she may have been able to put the old man into his place. But she was her father's daughter and accustomed to obey him.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

He is hated by the majority, no one even came to his funeral. And Renly wouldn't know about Tywin's conversations with Joffrey. What he would know is that Tywin backstabbed his own king to keep the Lannisters in power.

Well, I'm not sure they invited the entire Realm to his funeral, but, sure, the Kingslanders didn't love him. But we have no idea how unpopular Cersei is, for instance. Sure she is Tywin's daughter and a haughty and prideful woman, so she wouldn't be that popular, but she is also very beautiful so I doubt everybody hated her while she was Robert's queen for over ten years.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Who ever argued Renly was a good guy? All everyone said is that crowning himself was the best choice in a sea of bad choices. 

And this what I contest because crowning yourself in his position was actually the worst choice he could make - and something he also could have known. Just as Robb could have known that crowning himself was a pretty sure way to get himself killed. It is not that difficult to figure that out because it limits the options you have - you lose a lot of political leeway. You have to behave like a king if you want to be one. You cannot compromise the way a lord could, you cannot swear fealty to another king unless you want to lose face and your crown and the respect of your lords and bannermen. And you make yourself a target, as Renly learned when he drowned in blood. Stannis would have never killed him if he hadn't crowned himself.

If you assume 'Renly knew that Cersei would kill him because of ... reasons' then I say 'Renly must have known that Stannis would never suffer him as king and would rather hire a Faceless Man to murder than ever do him homage as a king'. And I'd say this is actually more likely true since Renly would have known Stannis much better than Cersei, especially since Stannis never keeps his feelings for himself. The idea that Stannis would ever sink so low as to do homage to his younger brother is insane - and Renly should have known this.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

He did team up with the Tyrells - and the condition required was that he made Margaery queen. Any scenario where Renly rebels against the Lannisters and tries to make himself Regent to Joffrey is foolish for many reasons, reasons which I've already spelled out. 

We don't know anything about conditions there. Such a condition was made when Margaery married Joffrey, but we have no idea how the decision to crown Renly was made ... or whether the Tyrells made it a condition that Renly marry Margaery. Could very well be Renly wanted to be king, told Mace to support him, and demanded that they give him Margaery's hand in marriage.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Since Stannis is seen as a dutiful man, Renly had no reason to believe he would rebel against Joffrey.

So he has every reason to believe Cersei wants to kill him, but no reason to believe his dear brother Stannis also dislikes Cersei and that Cersei also wants to do away with Stannis? How, pray, did Renly figure out the former but overlooked the latter? Was Cersei-Stannis being 'mortal enemies' some sort of secret?

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

As for a Great Council, it takes months to convene, as the last Great Council showed (which took a half year). The realm was also at war and travel wasn't safe. Also AFAIK only kings can call Great Councils .

Cat suggests such a council. It would have been doable. It may not have been an official Great Council, but the one appointing the last regency government of Aegon III also was no official Great Council. If Renly had gotten the Martells, Tyrells, Hightowers, Arryns, his brother Stannis, and the Tullys/Starks on the same page to take away the regency from the Lannisters then this would have happened. If the Lannisters had continued hostilities, those allies would have raised their own troops, would have crushed Tywin in the field, would have seized capital and court, and would have appointed a regency government for King Joffrey - like the lords did with Aegon III repeatedly.

43 minutes ago, Peach King said:

Dorne and The Vale are basically impregnable, unlike Storm's End.

Storm's End was also never taken by storm.

53 minutes ago, Peach King said:

That's not true. From a Catelyn chapter in ACOK:

None of those brothers and uncles and cousins do show up in ACoK. They aren't with Renly at Bitterbridge or Storm's End. There are Tyrell men with Renly, but no actual Tyrells besides Margaery and Loras ... unless, perhaps, some fourth cousins or so who weren't important enough attend war councils. If the fathers and brothers of Alla and Megga and Elinor had been with Renly they would have been seen by Catelyn, and they would have attended the war council.

This seems to be another mistake, just as the claim that there were Hightowers with Renly - AFfC makes it crystal clear that Lord Leyton didn't send any men to Renly, so either Cat was mistaken about the Hightower sigil there, or some distant cousins of the main Hightower branch joined Renly on their own accord - or there were Hightower men in service to the Tyrells who depicted Hightower colors and sigils - like men-at-arms from Oldtown in Lady Alerie's service, or something like that.

All that causes considerable issues if you want to assess the actual size of Renly's army and the houses who actually supported him - which then in turn causes issues in assessing the total strength of the Reach. If Renly truly had 100,000+ men without having any actual Hightower men - and possibly also without having (m)any men from the Hightower bannermen, then we would have to add a couple of ten thousand men to the total strength of the Reach (all the untapped Hightower reserves).

One can tweak things a little bit by assuming that very few Stormlanders were in Renly's army, but that doesn't make much sense, either, so this is just a mess.

[Morte]

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The point being is that George already can do stuff like that in TWoW - he would just have Stannis complain some more about stuff we don't already know, i.e. that he didn't like Robert very much, and have him bitch a little bit about Renly instead. He could give us great insight into Robert's reign while Jon Arryn was still around and how Littlefinger and Renly got their positions, etc.

That would be nice, yes.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

This makes it clear that Renly actually had no intention to harm or even seize Cersei there - at least not according to his suggestion. He wanted to control the person of the future king and the persons of his two siblings. Not Cersei.

He expects Cersei to fight Ned on the matter of the regency - and he is correct there - but he doesn't indicate directly there that he expects Cersei to kill either him or Ned.

I found the conversation quite straightforward for a place there every wall has ears. Also Ned does understand Renly quite well here, he just thinks it isn't honourable and underestimates the danger he is in.

And of course Renly wants Ned to control Cersei though her children - how else? The moment King Bob is dead the power goes over to the Lord Protector - or the Queen, if there isn't a Lord Protector - because the king would be a minor.

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

See above. The impression we are going to get is that Renly's character is what caused him to want to be king. And this seems to be a correct assessment. Cressen doesn't just talk about colorful things and stuff - he talks about a boy who liked to be the center of attention. That's different than merely being extrovert. The crucial stuff there is that Renly used the whole 'Look at me' phrase:

Quote

It was just the sort of notion that would appeal to Renly Baratheon; a splendid new order of knighthood, with gorgeous new raiment to proclaim it. Even as a boy, Renly had loved bright colors and rich fabrics, and he had loved his games as well. “Look at me!” he would shout as he ran laughing through the halls of Storm’s End. “Look at me, I’m a dragon,” or “Look at me, I’m a wizard,” or “Look at me, look at me, I’m the rain god.”

Well, for me it seem quite normal for a child raised alone without family and friends by a Maester and a castellan to try to get their attention (while they would have to do their jobs), when there isn't anybody else around for him to play with.

2 hours ago, Peach King said:

As for a Great Council, it takes months to convene, as the last Great Council showed (which took a half year). The realm was also at war and travel wasn't safe. Also AFAIK only kings can call Great Councils .

Imho the main problem is that by the time Renly crowns himself the time window for a Great Council was firmly shut: With Robert's testament ignored and Lord Stark in a black cell(!) and then dead, this opportunity was out of question. It would have been one had Stannis called for it while Robert laid dying, or had Ned called one at this moment.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

This seems to be another mistake, just as the claim that there were Hightowers with Renly - AFfC makes it crystal clear that Lord Leyton didn't send any men to Renly, so either Cat was mistaken about the Hightower sigil there, or some distant cousins of the main Hightower branch joined Renly on their own accord - or there were Hightower men in service to the Tyrells who depicted Hightower colors and sigils - like men-at-arms from Oldtown in Lady Alerie's service, or something like that.

The Hightower seems to ignore the whole of the Game of Thrones altogether, but that's a different, albeit interesting detail.