HBO's THE NEVERS to air in April 2021

[Kalbear]

3 hours ago, Werthead said:

I mean, I wouldn't be gobsmacked if they did let the show go after one season, but that's far more likely if the ratings for the rest of the season tanked, which we haven't seen any evidence of so far.

HBO cares a lot less about ratings than other streaming services; it cares about critical acclaim, word of mouth, subscriptions drivers and repeat watches - and how all of those things blend in with the cost of the show. It also cares about branding to a large degree, and if the Nevers is popular but not particularly special then it might not stay around. 

Based on that criteria I think they're almost certainly waiting for the back half of the eps before making any decisions, but I also suspect they'll likely cut bait unless it's a very big, critical success. The biggest draw previously for this was that all the fans of Joss would sign up to watch it, and that is, uh, not as awesome as it once was. 

[Werthead]

17 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

HBO cares a lot less about ratings than other streaming services; it cares about critical acclaim, word of mouth, subscriptions drivers and repeat watches - and how all of those things blend in with the cost of the show. It also cares about branding to a large degree, and if the Nevers is popular but not particularly special then it might not stay around. 

Based on that criteria I think they're almost certainly waiting for the back half of the eps before making any decisions, but I also suspect they'll likely cut bait unless it's a very big, critical success. The biggest draw previously for this was that all the fans of Joss would sign up to watch it, and that is, uh, not as awesome as it once was. 

I think that's a reasonable point, but there is another factor in that they also need a lot more content for HBO Max, way more than HBO previously produced, and there seems to have been something of a tug of war between HBO and HBO Max, with HBO proper not entirely happy about the branding (they seem to think it should have been a Warner Brothers-branded platform), dilution of their quality control and the "throw it at the wall and see what sticks" strategy that WB are borrowing from Netflix.

Or to put it another way, if The Nevers does well on HBO Max it might have more of a chance to stick around (versus being cancelled due to a mediocre showing on HBO itself) because they're desperate for more content to shove on HBO Max and they haven't got that many original shows going on there at the moment.

[Lord of Rhinos]

7 hours ago, Werthead said:

I mean, the idea that in 2021 - or even moreso five or ten years from now - you can have a new TV show or movie where the head writer/showrunner/director can't be interviewed or talked about by his cast or crew is utterly preposterous. That is not a situation anyone else will put themselves in.

Multiple actors, animators and staff have refused to work with Lasseter and Skydance, some resigning from projects that were in progress. In addition, Lasseter's behaviour, although complained about, has not resulted in legal or even internal disciplinary procedures, whilst clearly Whedon's behaviour generated that in at least two different areas (with Fisher and Gadot) on Justice League alone (and we don't know what internal procedures may have been followed on Buffy and Angel in the 2000s, given that Whedon's behaviour was known about at the time, just not publicised).

Skydance also hasn't released any material with his name attached yet as director, and I doubt will do so in the future. And you have to dig pretty deep in the credits of The Old Guard (not exactly a high-profile film that set the world on fire) to find Lasseter's name; he was not involved in any significant capacity.

 

Master of None season 3 is dropping in four days.  I haven't seen Aziz Ansari out doing any promotion for it besides a behind the scenes video.

Lasseter got fired from the most powerful job in the animated world due to his behavior.

The Old Guard was one of the most viewed movies on Netflix the year it came out.

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

We don't know how the rest of the show has done, but the first episode was a huge success on both HBO and HBO Max. On that basis they should have gotten a Season 2 renewal already, and are probably holding fire only because they have the second half of the season coming up to give them more data.

cost of COVID protocols (which are considerable and killed off GLOW Season 4 on Netflix even after they'd started shooting and had finished at least one episode in full).

We don't know how the Nevers has been faring on HBOMAX but Nielsen HBO ratings are public. There is no reason HBO should be doing a season two renewal when the back half of season one hasn't been filmed yet.

Glow season 4 being cancelled was far more complicated then Covid protocols. HBO would have had to cancel the Nevers before it aired if they wanted to blame it on Covid.  Covid protocols are on the way out.

[Zorral]

3 hours ago, Karlbear said:

HBO cares a lot less about ratings than other streaming services

You are speaking of an HBO that exists no longer as it has sold out to multiple behemoths, who literally buy and sell HBOs every day. Who have their own agendas.

[Werthead]

8 hours ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

Master of None season 3 is dropping in four days.  I haven't seen Aziz Ansari out doing any promotion for it besides a behind the scenes video.

Ansari's misconduct allegations were related to a single and very specific incident which seems to have been consensual and Ansari fully apologised to the other person for any discomfort they felt. There have been no reports of long, repeated and sustained behaviour over a career of thirty years, as in Whedon's case. Nevertheless, you can bet that Ansari is now on amber alert and further misconduct would lead to a ceremonial dumping by Netflix (though his show seems to be on the decline with critics at least, and Netflix is rarely renewing shows past a third season for any reason).

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Lasseter got fired from the most powerful job in the animated world due to his behavior.

The Old Guard was one of the most viewed movies on Netflix the year it came out.

 

Netflix's reporting algorithm and the way it can be gamed makes this doubtful, or rather, it may have well been "one of the most viewed movies on Netflix the year it came out" but in the real world that is a somewhat meaningless statement when they count anyone who has watched more than 2 minutes of a film as a full viewing; in some cases it may take 2 minutes to realise you've put the wrong film on. The Old Guard generated virtually zero discussion, hype or debate and was, at best, in the conversation for 24 hours and most people have already forgotten it existed.

Lasseter did not write or direct the film, was not required to expected to take part in any PR or marketing, and his name is buried a long way down the credits.

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We don't know how the Nevers has been faring on HBOMAX but Nielsen HBO ratings are public. There is no reason HBO should be doing a season two renewal when the back half of season one hasn't been filmed yet.

HBO traditionally renews shows for a second season even when the first season has done relatively poorly so they can assess long-term success with a completed full two seasons. HBO extremely rarely cancels shows after just one season for any reason: The Outsider is the last time they cancelled a show despite good critical buzz and growing ratings and that was three years ago when they weren't content-hungry for HBO Max (Vinyl at least had the excuse of much poorer ratings and a very mixed critical reception).

With The Nevers the fact that they have not done so might be a sign of a lack of faith in the product, but more likely it's because they have indeed broken the season in two and can assess its performance at two separate release times. Also the filming and production circumstances have been unusual.

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Glow season 4 being cancelled was far more complicated then Covid protocols. HBO would have had to cancel the Nevers before it aired if they wanted to blame it on Covid.  Covid protocols are on the way out.

It was not. COVID protocols have added between $500,000 and $1 million per episode to the cost of any TV show, which for a modest, cult success like GLOW was not enough to sustain it. The costs for GLOW were also greater because as a show about wrestling, it required regular physical contact between the actors in a way that other shows did not require (where between greenscreens and closeups, it wasn't always necessary for two actors in a scene to be shot together) and the entire cast to be bubbled together for the duration of filming, which Netflix did not consider viable.

At least here in the UK (where The Nevers is filmed), COVID protocols remain very firmly in force and will for some time to come.

[Annara Snow]

12 hours ago, Karlbear said:

HBO cares a lot less about ratings than other streaming services; it cares about critical acclaim, word of mouth, subscriptions drivers and repeat watches - and how all of those things blend in with the cost of the show. It also cares about branding to a large degree, and if the Nevers is popular but not particularly special then it might not stay around. 

Based on that criteria I think they're almost certainly waiting for the back half of the eps before making any decisions, but I also suspect they'll likely cut bait unless it's a very big, critical success. The biggest draw previously for this was that all the fans of Joss would sign up to watch it, and that is, uh, not as awesome as it once was. 

HBO (which is not a streaming service, though it has its own streaming service, but that may have been a typo on your part) cares more about critical acclaim than ratings? Then why did it keep True Blood on for 7 seasons?

Edited May 20, 2021 by Annara Snow

[Annara Snow]

50 minutes ago, Werthead said:

 

HBO traditionally renews shows for a second season even when the first season has done relatively poorly so they can assess long-term success with a completed full two seasons. HBO extremely rarely cancels shows after just one season for any reason: The Outsider is the last time they cancelled a show despite good critical buzz and growing ratings and that was three years ago when they weren't content-hungry for HBO Max (Vinyl at least had the excuse of much poorer ratings and a very mixed critical reception).

 

Three years ago? The Outsider aried in 2020 and was broacast later that year, abouy 7 months ago. I know we all feel like 2020 lasted years, but... 

[Werthead]

6 minutes ago, Annara Snow said:

Three years ago? The Outsider aried in 2020 and was broacast later that year, abouy 7 months ago. I know we all feel like 2020 lasted years, but... 

Got that mixed up with Here and Now, which I think was the last show HBO cancelled after one season before The Outsider. But that show got 300,000 first-run viewers, jack shit more in streaming and was slated by the critics, so much less surprising.

The Nielsens for The Nevers were running at around 500-600,000 in first night airings for episodes 1-4, which isn't spectacular but is okay (Lovecraft Country ran between 600,000 and 800,000, probably on a similar budget, and has a second season amberlight), and after the typical Episode 2 drop there was steady growth from episode to episode. But not a big enough data set to argue convincingly either way, so I can see HBO waiting until the second drop and looking carefully at the HBO Max figures (which I suspect are more encouraging).

[Kalbear]

5 hours ago, Annara Snow said:

HBO (which is not a streaming service, though it has its own streaming service, but that may have been a typo on your part) cares more about critical acclaim than ratings? Then why did it keep True Blood on for 7 seasons?

True blood was not a great ratings driver for a while, but it did drive subscriptions. It was also super cheap by comparison to a lot of other things. True blood dvds also sold well when that was a thing. 

HBO is also not solely a streaming service, but it operates in similar paradigms. It is not commercial based(though apparently thats changing soon), makes its revenue through people keeping on the service, cares about buzz and acclaim and has a specific brand. True blood for a while fit all of that. 

[Werthead]

56 minutes ago, Karlbear said:

True blood was not a great ratings driver for a while, but it did drive subscriptions. It was also super cheap by comparison to a lot of other things. True blood dvds also sold well when that was a thing. 

HBO is also not solely a streaming service, but it operates in similar paradigms. It is not commercial based(though apparently thats changing soon), makes its revenue through people keeping on the service, cares about buzz and acclaim and has a specific brand. True blood for a while fit all of that. 

True Blood was, in Season 1, HBO's biggest ratings hit since The Sopranos and Sex and the City. It was overtaken by Game of Thrones later on, but between 2007 and 2013 or so, it was HBO's biggest show, by far. It was relatively cheap, but only compared to HBO's really big-budget fare, it wasn't that cheap compared to some other HBO shows.

HBO caring "only" about critical acclaim went out the window around the time of True Blood, but it does remain a factor, if not as much as it once did. They seem to be happy these days at having some shows which are critical darlings (and preferably mega cheap), some shows which are trashy and huge, and others which are inbetween.

[aceluby]

The thing about True Blood that I think people forget is that it did have quite a bit of critical acclaim the first few seasons.  It had 16 Emmy nominations and 4 Golden Globe nominations.  It really had a problem of going on too long where people remember some of the awful choices in later seasons (blegh... Billith....) over the high quality that was presented in the first few seasons.  Dexter is another show that aired at the same time that fell to this same fate.  GoT to a lesser degree, but the last 2-3 seasons being mediocre to downright awful cast a pretty big shadow over the entire series as well.

Edited May 20, 2021 by aceluby

[Lord of Rhinos]

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Ansari's misconduct allegations were related to a single and very specific incident which seems to have been consensual and Ansari fully apologised to the other person for any discomfort they felt. There have been no reports of long, repeated and sustained behaviour over a career of thirty years, as in Whedon's case. Nevertheless, you can bet that Ansari is now on amber alert and further misconduct would lead to a ceremonial dumping by Netflix (though his show seems to be on the decline with critics at least, and Netflix is rarely renewing shows past a third season for any reason).

So what? You said that doing a show in 2021 where the writer/director didn't do press was utterly preposterous and no company would do it.  Yet Netflix is doing it right now.

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Netflix's reporting algorithm and the way it can be gamed makes this doubtful, or rather, it may have well been "one of the most viewed movies on Netflix the year it came out" but in the real world that is a somewhat meaningless statement when they count anyone who has watched more than 2 minutes of a film as a full viewing; in some cases it may take 2 minutes to realise you've put the wrong film on. The Old Guard generated virtually zero discussion, hype or debate and was, at best, in the conversation for 24 hours and most people have already forgotten it existed.

Lasseter did not write or direct the film, was not required to expected to take part in any PR or marketing, and his name is buried a long way down the credits.

What are you talking about? Who do you think has "gamed" Netflix's algorithm?  Why do you think the vagaries of Netflix's method of counting viewership matters when comparing Netflix films' performances relative to one another? If the Old Guard is so forgettable why is it nominated for a Hugo?

None of which changes Lasseter publicly being MeToo'd and let go by Disney and then immediately landing a job as head of a different animation studio.

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With The Nevers the fact that they have not done so might be a sign of a lack of faith in the product, but more likely it's because they have indeed broken the season in two and can assess its performance at two separate release times. Also the filming and production circumstances have been unusual.

It is a sign the season is months away from being complete.

The Outsider was always a limited series.  It wasn't cancelled.

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At least here in the UK (where The Nevers is filmed), COVID protocols remain very firmly in force and will for some time to come.

The U.K. literally began loosening up Covid protocols yesterday.

[Zorral]

Pertinent to this discussion about the future for HBO / the Nevers, who or whatever that is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/17/business/warnermedia-group-discovery-merger.html

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....Both WarnerMedia and Discovery have invested heavily in streaming. WarnerMedia has spent billions building HBO Max, which together with the HBO cable network has about 44 million customers. Discovery has 15 million global streaming subscribers, most of them for its Discovery+ app....

....It’s likely the new company will take a page from Disney’s playbook and offer a bundle of streaming services at a discount. WarnerMedia is also still planning to launch an ad-supported streaming service sometime this year.

But streaming is still a money-losing game, and traditional cable networks continue to generate billions in profits even as fewer people are tuning in every day.

The new company expects to generate $52 billion in sales and $14 billion in pretax profit by 2023. Streaming will be a big driver of that growth and is estimated to bring in $15 billion in revenue.

But the company will also be saddled with $58 billion of debt. The combined business could spend as much as $20 billion a year on developing content, but it’s unclear how much of that money will be allocated to streaming versus traditional cable....

 

 

Discovery, which appears the dominant in this merger, doesn't do scripted shows. So its experience with same, including the all-important 'gut' for what will work and what won't, is undeveloped.

[Werthead]

1 hour ago, Lord of Rhinos said:

So what? You said that doing a show in 2021 where the writer/director didn't do press was utterly preposterous and no company would do it.  Yet Netflix is doing it right now.

For a low-key show that's unlikely to be renewed after this one (based on Netflix's outright stated reluctance to go beyond three seasons for anything other than their biggest mega-hits), for a creator who was not accused of anything as long-term as Whedon and who has admitted and apologised for his behaviour. There is a significant difference here.

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What are you talking about? Who do you think has "gamed" Netflix's algorithm?  Why do you think the vagaries of Netflix's method of counting viewership matters when comparing Netflix films' performances relative to one another? If the Old Guard is so forgettable why is it nominated for a Hugo?

Judging things' worth on whether they were nominated for a Hugo or not - in this year - is 

I'm not sure why people are bringing The Old Guard up. Lasseter was named head of Skydance Animation, which involved some clause that got him a producer's credit on Skydance's live-action projects. He literally had nothing to do with the film and you have to go sifting through the credits to find he had anything to do with it.

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None of which changes Lasseter publicly being MeToo'd and let go by Disney and then immediately landing a job as head of a different animation studio.

Which led to Emma Thomas and other castmembers and crew walking off the projects they were working on.

Lasseter has also not been named as a writer or director on any project so far, and at the moment seems to be only be working as an executive. If an animated movie comes out with his name on it in a notable role, you can absolutely bet that the situation will blow up again.

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The Outsider was always a limited series.  It wasn't cancelled.

The Outsider was envisaged as an ongoing series. Season 2 was partially scripted and ready to go when HBO cancelled it. The actors had multi-year contracts in place. Stephen King confirmed that Season 2 was ready to go as far as he was concerned, and everyone seems to have been a bit surprised that HBO did not move forwards with it.

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The U.K. literally began loosening up Covid protocols yesterday.

For everyday life, yes (and at the rate the Indian variant is spreading, maybe not for long), but not for filming. The UK filming protocols were updated three days ago and remain stringent, and these protocols are the conditions under which, for example, House of the Dragon is currently filming in Leavesden.

[Ran]

I've been pondering why the Victorian setting. Not for thematic reasons, but for plot reasons. Spoilers through the mid-season finale:

Spoiler

This happens to mirror some thoughts from the fan subrreddit that someone posted, but it was something I have been pondering since we saw the episode on Monday. 

One obvious reason for, "Why 1896?" is just if they say, "That's as far as back as the Galanthi can go, that's it, no other explanation."  Which is fine.

But more intriguing would be if Whedon and co. put some thought into what era of time might be best poised to influence the future of humanity in a positive direction. It seems to me that the fin de siècle period offers a lot of advantages that go beyond the obvious "before the World Wars". It's an era of the professionalization of science, some of the greatest minds of 20th century science are in many cases students at this point (assuming history has not altered too much, Einstein's a university student) and so might be all the more receptive to whatever new knowledge comes around, it's an era of increasingly-rapid spread of information and knowledge (Marconi's already got a radio factory), it's post-Industrial Revolution but before the environmental effects take a global scale, and so on.

And, also, it's the point in time and the British Empire is still strongly centralized through its vast bureaucratic and diplomatic apparatus, the greatest empire the world had yet seen. If the government embraced the Galanthi's science and technology, it'd rapidly spread through much of the world thanks to the empire where the sun never sets. Of course, one possible side-effect to all that is that the British Empire could leverage its technological superiority into tightening its grip -- both on its possessions and the possessions of others -- and I could imagine how that would be bad. Especially if the Galanthi advanced them very quickly to nuclear power, only for the boffins to come up with the atomic bomb decades early...

 

 

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, Ran said:

Spoiler

It seems to me that the fin de siècle period offers a lot of advantages that go beyond the obvious "before the World Wars". 

 

Spoiler

 

Yet, if this 1896 is not Our 1896, how does this matter at all?

One could have as easily chosen for scientific and communications innovations pretty much any decade after the Napoleonic Wars: steam, railroads, the telegraphy, geology, biology, chemistry, astronomy, and the Empire was fully in place by the 1860's -- the only big difference between 1896 and 1856 is, at least in the USA, abolition of slavery.  Origin Of Species is published right on the eve of the war that ends formal, overt slavery as part of the legal system in the USA, in 1859.

Further, in 1896, no more than in 1863, did we have antiobiotics, though we were moving in on the germ theory in the 1860's, which made it possible for Koch to recognize the organisms that created two of the greatest killers of all, cholera and tuberculosis.  But full understanding of it didn't come into its own until some time later (surgeons and doctors still paraded their filthy operating coats and had dirty hands, and women still died in droves -- as they still would into the future -- from unhygienic birthing by male doctors).

 

 

[Ran]

45 minutes ago, Zorral said:

  Hide contents

 

Yet, if this 1896 is not Our 1896, how does this matter at all?

One could have as easily chosen for scientific and communications innovations pretty much any decade after the Napoleonic Wars: steam, railroads, the telegraphy, geology, biology, chemistry, astronomy, and the Empire was fully in place by the 1860's -- the only big difference between 1896 and 1856 is, at least in the USA, abolition of slavery. 

 

 

Spoiler

Radio. The discovery of the electron. The telephone. All those theoretical physics geniuses of the late 19th/early 20th century. Those are the standout differences, to my mind. And it's far back enough from WWI that one can hope to avert that in due time.

 

Edited May 20, 2021 by Ran

[Lord of Rhinos]

6 hours ago, Werthead said:

For a low-key show that's unlikely to be renewed after this one (based on Netflix's outright stated reluctance to go beyond three seasons for anything other than their biggest mega-hits), for a creator who was not accused of anything as long-term as Whedon and who has admitted and apologised for his behaviour. There is a significant difference here.

There's nothing low-key about Master of None.  Its Netflix's most critically acclaimed comedy and if Anzari decides he wants to do more then Netflix will happily let him.  Regardless he's not out there doing press for the show  which is the thing you said was utterly preposterous.

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Judging things' worth on whether they were nominated for a Hugo or not - in this year - is 

I'm not sure why people are bringing The Old Guard up. Lasseter was named head of Skydance Animation, which involved some clause that got him a producer's credit on Skydance's live-action projects. He literally had nothing to do with the film and you have to go sifting through the credits to find he had anything to do with it.

I judged whether or not a movie was mostly forgotten when people are nominating it for awards six months later.

But really I just want to hear about what sort of conspiracy you're sure gamed Netflix's algorithm. I mean the Old Guard couldn't have been popular because you didn't see enough tweets about it.

 

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Which led to Emma Thomas and other castmembers and crew walking off the projects they were working on.

Lasseter has also not been named as a writer or director on any project so far, and at the moment seems to be only be working as an executive. If an animated movie comes out with his name on it in a notable role, you can absolutely bet that the situation will blow up again.

What cast members left aside from Emma Thompson? And how does the movie moving forward without her show Hollywood won't work with Lasseter?

Lasseter has a writing credit on Toy Story 4 which came out a year and a half after the story of his serial harassment came out and I don't recall anyone caring.

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The Outsider was envisaged as an ongoing series. Season 2 was partially scripted and ready to go when HBO cancelled it. The actors had multi-year contracts in place. Stephen King confirmed that Season 2 was ready to go as far as he was concerned, and everyone seems to have been a bit surprised that HBO did not move forwards with it.

Literally from your link "Season 1 was undoubtedly a success for HBO, but the creators and network initially agreed on making it as a limited series. When season 2 was proposed, the network never anticipated expanding it beyond the current story arc. " Reading comprehension is your friend.

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For everyday life, yes (and at the rate the Indian variant is spreading, maybe not for long), but not for filming. The UK filming protocols were updated three days ago and remain stringent, and these protocols are the conditions under which, for example, House of the Dragon is currently filming in Leavesden.

When general guide lines loosen up business guide lines follow suit.

[Ran]

Spotify and other streamers have Mark Isham's The Nevers original soundtrack up. It's a good listen. "Mrs. True" is charming and the instrumentation in "The Event" is just gorgeous. And Eleanor Tomlinson provided the voice for "The Song of the Touched". Whedon picked the perfect composer for this.

Some more thoughts on the setting:

Spoiler

Besides the things listed above, I forgot to mention that Planck is on the verge of proposing his quantum hypothesis and the incredibly rapid development of theoretical physics that follows it. And also, material sciences are more substantially advanced -- aluminum became commercially viable in the late 1880s, the first really useful transistors are just a few short years away [though it looks like Penance may have already come up with them], ditto the first useful plastics.

ETA:

Oh, also, this is an interesting featurette if one's interested in more detail on the VFX design of a particular something-or-other from the finale, plus some details from Jane Espenson that seem to head off some of the more out there theories I've seen:

 

Edited May 21, 2021 by Ran

[Annara Snow]

3 hours ago, Ran said:

Spotify and other streamers have Mark Isham's The Nevers original soundtrack up. It's a good listen. "Mrs. True" is charming and the instrumentation in "The Event" is just gorgeous. And Eleanor Tomlinson provided the voice for "The Song of the Touched". Whedon picked the perfect composer for this.

 

Eleanor Tomlinson sung multiple times on Poldark, so I wasn't surprised to see her sing in another role. She's even released an album called Tales from Home in 2018.