The Yronwood Dilemma

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

With the deaths of Cletus Yronwood and Quentyn Martell, the relationship between the Martells and Yronwoods is probably going be more precarious than it has been in years. The Yronwoods also have a history of participating in Blackfyre rebellion (3/5). Anders Yronwood has two known surviving children, Ynys, his heir by Dornish Law, and his younger daughter Gwynth (whom Quentyn wanted to marry).

With the emergence of fAegon and a possible sixth Blackfyre rebellion, Dorne must consider carefully whether they will ally with this new pretender. Dorne wishes for blood but Doran Martell is cautious. If he does not join fAegon and the failure of Quentyn's mission becomes known, Doran risks rebellion. Gwynth is a suitable match, and because fAegon has a claim to Dorne and the seven kingdoms,  he may rally many of the discontent Dornish houses to his cause spearheaded by the Yronwoods. To avoid this Doran must make common cause.

[Lord Varys]

Since both Quentyn and Cletus died, I don't think there will be much of an issue there. Quentyn was raised by Lord Anders, so the man might feel nearly as much pain for his loss than he feels for Cletus.

There could be a rift between the houses further down the road, but Arianne will decide whether Dorne stands with Aegon or not, and the Yronwoods should go along with this ... as long as things seem to go fine. If, say, Archibald Yronwood remained with Daenerys' people in Meereen then this connection could later cause the Yronwoods to join her further down the road.

Not that I expect that there will be much fighting in Dorne.

[Groo]

Arianne would give fAegon all of Dorne. If he's going to marry a daughter of a lessor house that opens up all kinds of possibilities. How about he marries Demara Redwyne and tries to get a bunch of the Reach to turn against the Tyrells? I actually hope nothing like that happens. After five books I don't really want some briefly mentioned character to suddenly play a prominent role. We have more than enough characters with screen time as it is.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Since both Quentyn and Cletus died, I don't think there will be much of an issue there. Quentyn was raised by Lord Anders, so the man might feel nearly as much pain for his loss than he feels for Cletus.

There could be a rift between the houses further down the road, but Arianne will decide whether Dorne stands with Aegon or not, and the Yronwoods should go along with this ... as long as things seem to go fine. If, say, Archibald Yronwood remained with Daenerys' people in Meereen then this connection could later cause the Yronwoods to join her further down the road.

Not that I expect that there will be much fighting in Dorne.

We know that Quent was sent to the Yronwoods as some sort of blood debt probably related to Roberts rebellion. The Yronwoods were kings in Dorne before the Martells. If Anders has sympathy for any Martell it would be Quent, but there is no reason not suspect such affection is extended to any other Martell. at the same time we know that it was Doran who sent quent's group on its mission. I think it is reasonable to assume that Anders will be resentful to Doran for what happened to both young men. If Arianne refuses the alliance for any reason, Yronwoods is fAegon's best choice for Dornish Allies, including the potential of marriage pact as I see it. the threat of this may be enough to force the alliance between Martell and fAegon.

I am curious to how Arch with effect the relationship with Dorne. if Martell joins fAegon and Dany becomes his enemy then the yronwoods may join Dany if they think it will earn them dorne.

3 hours ago, Groo said:

Arianne would give fAegon all of Dorne. If he's going to marry a daughter of a lessor house that opens up all kinds of possibilities. How about he marries Demara Redwyne and tries to get a bunch of the Reach to turn against the Tyrells? I actually hope nothing like that happens. After five books I don't really want some briefly mentioned character to suddenly play a prominent role. We have more than enough characters with screen time as it is.

If Arianne refuses him (and she probably shouldn't), Gwynth may give him probably most of dorne. and who is to say he will marry only one bride? Aegon the conqueror had two brides so why not fAegon?

from a pure literary standpoint maybe not, but George does have a habit of introducing important characters later on after briefly mentioning them. Really though this post has been more to express a conundrum that the Martells are in and a speculation to the consequences they may or may not influence the decisions making gong foreword. Im not saying this will happen, I'm saying the that this is one of the threats that makes the alliance necessary or any least hard to dismiss.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

We know that Quent was sent to the Yronwoods as some sort of blood debt probably related to Roberts rebellion. The Yronwoods were kings in Dorne before the Martells. If Anders has sympathy for any Martell it would be Quent, but there is no reason not suspect such affection is extended to any other Martell. at the same time we know that it was Doran who sent quent's group on its mission. I think it is reasonable to assume that Anders will be resentful to Doran for what happened to both young men. If Arianne refuses the alliance for any reason, Yronwoods is fAegon's best choice for Dornish Allies, including the potential of marriage pact as I see it. the threat of this may be enough to force the alliance between Martell and fAegon.

It didn't have anything to do with Robert's Rebellion but that duel between young Oberyn and Anders' grandfather which led to the old man's death.

But this was a long time ago, and literally nothing in the books intends so far that Lord Anders has severe issues with the Martells at this point.

And while Doran sent Quentyn on his mission, it would have been Lord Anders who allowed his heir and cousin to accompany Quentyn on this journey. Also, if you consider all that, Anders Yronwood must be privy to the Daenerys plan itself. His son and cousin accompanied Quentyn, and it makes no sense that this could happen if neither Doran nor Quentyn told Anders what the point of their journey was.

If Arianne were to refuse Aegon, then Aegon and his cause would likely be finished. Arianne Martell has to declare him Elia and Rhaegar's son. If she is not going to accept, then no other Dornishman will ... and most likely only very few other Westerosi.

I mean, we know Aegon is going to take Storm's End. If Arianne would not come around after that the people would interpret this as Dorne viewing as a doomed fake, no matter what he accomplished in the field so far. It would be the beginning of the end of his campaign.

2 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I am curious to how Arch with effect the relationship with Dorne. if Martell joins fAegon and Dany becomes his enemy then the yronwoods may join Dany if they think it will earn them dorne.

It doesn't have to be Dorne. They could just realize that Daenerys is the safer ticket, considering she has dragons and a large army.

You have to keep in mind that while the Yronwoods were once very powerful in Dorne they are no longer that powerful at this point. They are the most powerful Dornish house, but they no longer rule half of Dorne or so. Sunspear and House Martell have ruled Dorne for nearly a thousand years. Even if the Martells were to fuck things up, folks are not suddenly going view the Yronwoods as their new rulers.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

42 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It didn't have anything to do with Robert's Rebellion but that duel between young Oberyn and Anders' grandfather which led to the old man's death.

But this was a long time ago, and literally nothing in the books intends so far that Lord Anders has severe issues with the Martells at this point.

And while Doran sent Quentyn on his mission, it would have been Lord Anders who allowed his heir and cousin to accompany Quentyn on this journey. Also, if you consider all that, Anders Yronwood must be privy to the Daenerys plan itself. His son and cousin accompanied Quentyn, and it makes no sense that this could happen if neither Doran nor Quentyn told Anders what the point of their journey was.

Haha yeah your right about the cause. my mistake. But even if everything is settled blood feud-wise (which maybe it is maybe its not), The Yronwoods have a good claim to dorne as "bloodroyals" and a history of supporting backfire rebellions. maybe this generation will be another exception but I think its fair to assume any reasonably powerful great house would use this opportunity if they thought it would be to the benefit of their house. the Yronwoods should reasonably be considered rivals of the Martells for control of Dorne. Having lost both boys to Doran's plan (because even if Yronwood knows of it (I never claimed he didn't) that does not mean he can easily oppose it) and the most likely match between the two families with marriage (Quent and Qwyn), the claim of no longer amicable if not grievously harmed relations seems reasonable. If Doran does not look to the blackfyre (Targaryen/whatever) Anders should.

55 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If Arianne were to refuse Aegon, then Aegon and his cause would likely be finished. Arianne Martell has to declare him Elia and Rhaegar's son. If she is not going to accept, then no other Dornishman will ... and most likely only very few other Westerosi.

I mean, we know Aegon is going to take Storm's End. If Arianne would not come around after that the people would interpret this as Dorne viewing as a doomed fake, no matter what he accomplished in the field so far. It would be the beginning of the end of his campaign.

Yes if Dorne refuses Aegon, his conquest is finished, but the Martells aren't Dorne. that's why the yronwoods are dangerous in this situation. that's what i'm explaining. even if the Arianne says he's fake, other can claim she never knew him as a child. the Yronwoods could use him quite literally as a pretender to depose the Martells (just like Varys probably is), sealing thier alliance with the marriage pact originally meant for Quent. Many of the Dornish pretty much hate Doran and probably would rise (common men as well) to depose him.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

It doesn't have to be Dorne. They could just realize that Daenerys is the safer ticket, considering she has dragons and a large army.

You have to keep in mind that while the Yronwoods were once very powerful in Dorne they are no longer that powerful at this point. They are the most powerful Dornish house, but they no longer rule half of Dorne or so. Sunspear and House Martell have ruled Dorne for nearly a thousand years. Even if the Martells were to fuck things up, folks are not suddenly going view the Yronwoods as their new rulers.

yes to the first.

to the second... well so say House Hoare, House Gardener, House GreyIron, House Royce, House Stark, etc. Great houses and kingdoms get deposed and flipped in power with their subjects. it happens and Targaryens are a great catalyst for this type of change. its what conquers do. they get supporters by turning houses against there lords and change the script. If the Martells oppose or try to ignore Aegon, this is what they risk. I mean Robb stark was going to marry a Frey at one point. weirder marriages have been made for the sake of alliances, and even then, fAegon has a reasonably good claim on Dorne. not as good as his cousins, but good enough.

 

[Bernie Mac]

23 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

With the deaths of Cletus Yronwood and Quentyn Martell, the relationship between the Martells and Yronwoods is probably going be more precarious than it has been in years.

The Yronwoods knew what they were signing up, knew he was sending his son on a dangerous mission.

Noble sons put their lives in danger all the time, it comes with the territory. Karstark was not mad with Robb because his two sons died fighting for him, he was mad that their killer was still alive and not put to justice. He was furious that Jaime was released and took his revenge on other Lannisters. He also seems to have not been best pleased with what was happening in the North and possibly Robb's lack of response to it.

But dying in battle is something that is to be expected from sons in their world.

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Haha yeah your right about the cause. my mistake. But even if everything is settled blood feud-wise (which maybe it is maybe its not), The Yronwoods have a good claim to dorne as "bloodroyals" and a history of supporting backfire rebellions. maybe this generation will be another exception but I think its fair to assume any reasonably powerful great house would use this opportunity if they thought it would be to the benefit of their house. the Yronwoods should reasonably be considered rivals of the Martells for control of Dorne. Having lost both boys to Doran's plan (because even if Yronwood knows of it (I never claimed he didn't) that does not mean he can easily oppose it) and the most likely match between the two families with marriage (Quent and Qwyn), the claim of no longer amicable if not grievously harmed relations seems reasonable. If Doran does not look to the blackfyre (Targaryen/whatever) Anders should.

The Yronwoods have ancient claims to other parts of Dorne they now no longer control, but they do not have claims to all of Dorne which they never ruled. Nymeria unified Dorne, not the Yronwoods.

The last time the Yronwoods supported a Blackfyre was back in 236 AC during the Fourth Rebellion - that was a long time ago. There must have been reasons why they did that, of course, but my guess would be it had more to do with the Yronwoods wanting more autonomy from Sunspear or, perhaps, more lands under their direct control than the idea that they wanted to supplant the Martells as rulers of Dorne.

To do that, even a Blackfyre king would have to first conquer Dorne all over again and topple the Martells since they joined the Targaryen Realm peacefully. They have more rights than all the other lords who were properly conquered by the Targaryens and that likely means that the Iron Throne cannot just decide to take Sunspear from the Martells and give it to another house. Or declare Lord Yronwood Prince of Dorne instead of a Martell.

8 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Yes if Dorne refuses Aegon, his conquest is finished, but the Martells aren't Dorne. that's why the yronwoods are dangerous in this situation. that's what i'm explaining. even if the Arianne says he's fake, other can claim she never knew him as a child. the Yronwoods could use him quite literally as a pretender to depose the Martells (just like Varys probably is), sealing thier alliance with the marriage pact originally meant for Quent. Many of the Dornish pretty much hate Doran and probably would rise (common men as well) to depose him.

They certainly could try to do that, but so far nothing indicates that Lord Anders cares about Aegon. Aegon's supporters knew they need the Martells. I'm not sure they would much bother with Dorne if Arianne were to disappoint them. And then keep in mind that there are already Dornish armies in the passes. If Arianne were to reject Aegon then chances are that the Dornishmen would also fight against Aegon in the name of Tommen or Myrcella rather than just continue to sit on their asses. Once that starts, it would be very difficult for the Yronwoods to hook up with Aegon.

[Bowen Marsh]

The strength of Dorne is overestimated.  Civil war within will further weaken all of the Dornish families.  What is happening in Dorne is mirrored in the north.  The Martells, like the Starks, will be ousted and humiliated. 

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

whoops

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

18 hours ago, Bernie Mac said:

The Yronwoods knew what they were signing up, knew he was sending his son on a dangerous mission.

Noble sons put their lives in danger all the time, it comes with the territory. Karstark was not mad with Robb because his two sons died fighting for him, he was mad that their killer was still alive and not put to justice. He was furious that Jaime was released and took his revenge on other Lannisters. He also seems to have not been best pleased with what was happening in the North and possibly Robb's lack of response to it.

But dying in battle is something that is to be expected from sons in their world.

The Karstarks are a good example of how a loyal house can turn to treason. like Rickard, Anders lost a son fighting for his liege lords cause, in this case for fire and blood. Aegon does not have dragons but he is a "dragon" and his cause is more closely linked to the unrest in dorne than dany is (by blood at least) By being the son supposedly murdered. Elia was loved, as was Oberyn, but Doran is not loved. fAegon's cause is the donish cause, what the people want to fight for, what the mission to Meereen was for, so if the Martells decide not to pursue this war despite a hero standing ready to fight by there side, houses like the yronwoods may be inspired to treason. in this case not by murdering two boys, but by joining fAegons cause. 

and with the death of Quent and Cletus (the only two Martells and Yronwoods know to be friends) what is to stop Anders from turning his cloak? what fondness for the Martells, what loyalty, does he have left to stay his hand? 

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

They certainly could try to do that, but so far nothing indicates that Lord Anders cares about Aegon. Aegon's supporters knew they need the Martells. I'm not sure they would much bother with Dorne if Arianne were to disappoint them. And then keep in mind that there are already Dornish armies in the passes. If Arianne were to reject Aegon then chances are that the Dornishmen would also fight against Aegon in the name of Tommen or Myrcella rather than just continue to sit on their asses. Once that starts, it would be very difficult for the Yronwoods to hook up with Aegon.

I highly doubt that they would fight fAegons army for Lannisters when they wouldn't fight Tyrells for them. Lord Anders leads the men in the Boneway at present, and whose to say he won't pull a Frey or a bolton on the Martells? if Anders hears word of his son's death in the coming months he he probably conclude the marriage plan failed. sunken cost fallacy, his own son is dead, it's his fight now too. And if fAegon is seen as a Martell then they don't need to exterminate the Martells or conquer dorne, just depose doran with popular support and install fAegon. Anders has no sons left that we know of, but a daughter a s queen would be pretty good I bet. If fAegon avoids dorne for a while and wins enough victories in the stromlands to become a threat, Anders may consider it time to get on the winning side.

8 hours ago, Bowen Marsh said:

The strength of Dorne is overestimated.  Civil war within will further weaken all of the Dornish families.  What is happening in Dorne is mirrored in the north.  The Martells, like the Starks, will be ousted and humiliated. 

agreed you old pomegranate. I defining think we should expect some treachery if Doran doesn't call his spears. 

[TheLastWolf]

We can't have all the Dornish in fAegon's side can we?

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

The Karstarks are a good example of how a loyal house can turn to treason. like Rickard, Anders lost a son fighting for his liege lords cause, in this case for fire and blood. Aegon does not have dragons but he is a "dragon" and his cause is more closely linked to the unrest in dorne than dany is (by blood at least) By being the son supposedly murdered. Elia was loved, as was Oberyn, but Doran is not loved. fAegon's cause is the donish cause, what the people want to fight for, what the mission to Meereen was for, so if the Martells decide not to pursue this war despite a hero standing ready to fight by there side, houses like the yronwoods may be inspired to treason. in this case not by murdering two boys, but by joining fAegons cause. 

There is no indication that Doran Martell isn't loved. Folks want him to do something to avenge his siblings and stuff, and they are angry that he doesn't seem to do that. But there is no indication that anyone in Dorne thinks Doran Martell is a bad ruler in general or should be deposed.

The idea that the Yronwoods care all that much about how Dorne looks when it has a reluctant Prince is also not very convincing. Insofar as the Martells are the not-so-popular overlords of the Yronwoods, they wouldn't shed that many tears for either Elia or Oberyn. The death of the latter could have even made them smile in light of the fact what he did to Anders' grandfather.

10 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

and with the death of Quent and Cletus (the only two Martells and Yronwoods know to be friends) what is to stop Anders from turning his cloak? what fondness for the Martells, what loyalty, does he have left to stay his hand?

He has pretty much nothing to gain from any of that as long as Doran and Arianne are still around.

10 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I highly doubt that they would fight fAegons army for Lannisters when they wouldn't fight Tyrells for them. Lord Anders leads the men in the Boneway at present, and whose to say he won't pull a Frey or a bolton on the Martells? if Anders hears word of his son's death in the coming months he he probably conclude the marriage plan failed. sunken cost fallacy, his own son is dead, it's his fight now too. And if fAegon is seen as a Martell then they don't need to exterminate the Martells or conquer dorne, just depose doran with popular support and install fAegon. Anders has no sons left that we know of, but a daughter a s queen would be pretty good I bet. If fAegon avoids dorne for a while and wins enough victories in the stromlands to become a threat, Anders may consider it time to get on the winning side.

Aegon and his people will never try to install him as Prince of Dorne ... especially since there are quite a few Martells with better claims around in both Arianne and Trystane. And if Arianne were to reject Aegon - which isn't all that likely - then seems pretty far-fetched to me that Lord Yronwood - who didn't know Aegon either - would believe or want to believe that Aegon was Elia's son.

We can also not expect the Yronwoods to learn soon about Cletus and Quentyn since there is no direct contact between Meereen and Dorne at the moment. Especially Cletus' fate is not likely to be revealed until Drinkwater and/or Archibald Yronwood return to Dorne. Which may or may not happen eventually, depending on whether they survive the coming battles.

 

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication that Doran Martell isn't loved. Folks want him to do something to avenge his siblings and stuff, and they are angry that he doesn't seem to do that. But there is no indication that anyone in Dorne thinks Doran Martell is a bad ruler in general or should be deposed.

The idea that the Yronwoods care all that much about how Dorne looks when it has a reluctant Prince is also not very convincing. Insofar as the Martells are the not-so-popular overlords of the Yronwoods, they wouldn't shed that many tears for either Elia or Oberyn. The death of the latter could have even made them smile in light of the fact what he did to Anders' grandfather.

Doran did nothing when his sister and niece were killed (ostensibly). he did nothing when his brother was killed. the man is gouty he can't stand. he has given his people peace, but nobody notices peace, they notice violence and revenge. They notice the weakness of Doran Martell who lets other house walk all over dorne. im being hyperbolic but you get the point, he is a visibly weak seeming leader. that is often enough for banner men to challenge there liege lord. the dornish people care about how dorne looks. why would they love their seemingly weak and ineffectual ruler? his own daughter went behind his back and betrayed him. you ask what there is to indicate he I not loved, well, what has been shown to indicate that he is?

And now that Ander's son has fought and died for this cause (because that was what the marriage pact plan was), there is a good chance that he is set in it now. "its too Late, were fighting this war." fAegon is the opportunity to fight the war. refusing him would be saying "Anders I know your son died for my stupid scheme, but this person with an army who want to ally with us and fight our common cause and for the pride and revenge of dorne just doesn't do it for me. attack him." see how dumb that sound. the yronwoods don't have to care about Elia. they probably definitely don't care about Oberyn. They have lost their own person in this war now. sunken cost fallacy. he's not just gonna role over like "my son did for this cause and you want to abandon it? whatever"

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He has pretty much nothing to gain from any of that as long as Doran and Arianne are still around.

He has all of Dorne to gain, for his grandchildren. so far he has sacrificed a son and lost a potential marriage pact that would have given his grandchildren the same. he has plenty to fight for.

 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon and his people will never try to install him as Prince of Dorne ... especially since there are quite a few Martells with better claims around in both Arianne and Trystane. And if Arianne were to reject Aegon - which isn't all that likely - then seems pretty far-fetched to me that Lord Yronwood - who didn't know Aegon either - would believe or want to believe that Aegon was Elia's son.

We can also not expect the Yronwoods to learn soon about Cletus and Quentyn since there is no direct contact between Meereen and Dorne at the moment. Especially Cletus' fate is not likely to be revealed until Drinkwater and/or Archibald Yronwood return to Dorne. Which may or may not happen eventually, depending on whether they survive the coming battles.

 

 yeah and Robert baratheons people will never try to install him as king of the seven kingdoms. not when there are people with better claims then him like vis and Dany, ect. on his own side faegon has the best claim to dorne. if he goes to war with dorne at any point, the smart move would to be to take the rulership for himself. not that he has to rule out of dorne if he wins the crown. he can just put Anders up as regent of dorne. and Anders doesn't need to believe he is who he says he is. he just need reasonable belief that at the end of things, he and his house will get honors, lands, and riches. a reward for what they have sunk into this war.

And one way or another, story of the prince of dorne being burned to death by a dragon will reach dorne. knowledge that the plan flailed will become clear to those who knew it. that the dornish prince had but two attendants seems likely to find its way east seems perfectly likely as well. 

and if Doran refuses, and months go by with aegon winning his war, then news comes later, all the more reason for yronwood to change sides.

[Lord Varys]

2 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Doran did nothing when his sister and niece were killed (ostensibly). he did nothing when his brother was killed. the man is gouty he can't stand. he has given his people peace, but nobody notices peace, they notice violence and revenge. They notice the weakness of Doran Martell who lets other house walk all over dorne. im being hyperbolic but you get the point, he is a visibly weak seeming leader. that is often enough for banner men to challenge there liege lord. the dornish people care about how dorne looks. why would they love their seemingly weak and ineffectual ruler? his own daughter went behind his back and betrayed him. you ask what there is to indicate he I not loved, well, what has been shown to indicate that he is?

Well, actually the only bannerman who, to our knowledge, ever tried to topple and replace his liege lord during the main series was Roose Bolton. And he is a very cold fish. Even the Reynes and Tarbecks never tried to topple the Lannisters and take over the West. They seceded from Casterly Rock, deciding that Tytos Lannister was no longer their liege lord.

Something like that we could, perhaps, assume the Yronwoods would like, too.

But to supplant another house and take its place if it is the ruling house in your region should be all but impossible. Roose Bolton could try to pull that off because the Starks were down to boy lords and had lost their castle already. But even then he was dependent on the backing of the Lannisters and the Iron Throne.

Lord Yronwood could count on none of those things.

And about Doran: Some people don't like that he seemingly does nothing. But there is no indication that even some Dornish lords have issues with him, personally, or have problems with his rule. And Doran has a very effective system of informers and spies in place. He learned about Arianne's conspiracy in advance and he took steps to prevent it. Chances are very bad that his own bannermen could conspire against him without him knowing about it as soon as they start to think about it.

Even if the Yronwoods were to move against Doran, most of Dorne should stand with the Martells.

2 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

And now that Ander's son has fought and died for this cause (because that was what the marriage pact plan was), there is a good chance that he is set in it now. "its too Late, were fighting this war." fAegon is the opportunity to fight the war. refusing him would be saying "Anders I know your son died for my stupid scheme, but this person with an army who want to ally with us and fight our common cause and for the pride and revenge of dorne just doesn't do it for me. attack him." see how dumb that sound. the yronwoods don't have to care about Elia. they probably definitely don't care about Oberyn. They have lost their own person in this war now. sunken cost fallacy. he's not just gonna role over like "my son did for this cause and you want to abandon it? whatever"

Nobody is going to ask Anders opinion on that matter ... and we have no reason to assume he cares all that much about avenging murdered Martells.

But then - I don't think this scenario has much merit since I expect Arianne to side with Aegon, so Lord Yronwood will likely fight and, perhaps, die at Arianne's and Aegon's command. The Boneway army is closest to Storm's End, so if Aegon and Arianne team up the Dornish army might be there to help them deal with the Tyrell army.

2 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

yeah and Robert baratheons people will never try to install him as king of the seven kingdoms. not when there are people with better claims then him like vis and Dany, ect. on his own side faegon has the best claim to dorne. if he goes to war with dorne at any point, the smart move would to be to take the rulership for himself. not that he has to rule out of dorne if he wins the crown. he can just put Anders up as regent of dorne. and Anders doesn't need to believe he is who he says he is. he just need reasonable belief that at the end of things, he and his house will get honors, lands, and riches. a reward for what they have sunk into this war.

Anyone trying to conquer Dorne is a moron. That doesn't really work and is a very costly business even if it works. To rule Dorne, you would have to take Sunspear ... and that's not something a pretender who came to Westeros to take the Iron Throne and failed at that is likely to do. I mean, Aegon trying to take Sunspear after he failed at taking KL is a joke. Nobody would follow him.

2 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

And one way or another, story of the prince of dorne being burned to death by a dragon will reach dorne. knowledge that the plan flailed will become clear to those who knew it. that the dornish prince had but two attendants seems likely to find its way east seems perfectly likely as well. 

Honestly, go back and reread the circumstances around Quentyn's death. Daenerys had just disappeared, and in the very night of his death a coup was staged, and Quentyn himself was a footnote at that court. Very few people knew him, and even fewer people would have cared that he died. And he didn't die publicly but while trying to steal some dragons. Folks and Meereen learn that the dragons are loose, alright, but would Barristan Selmy publicly announce that Quentyn Martell tried to steal the dragons rather than, you know, just say that the dragons escaped?

Even if some news from Meereen get out of Slaver's Bay in the next couple of weeks - which isn't that likely since the war is likely to continue as the Volantenes are on their way - then this will be about the big things, not the foreign 'prince' who apparently died.

2 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

and if Doran refuses, and months go by with aegon winning his war, then news comes later, all the more reason for yronwood to change sides.

Doran won't make the call. He left that completely to Arianne. She has the code to send ravens to the armies in the passes. Doran trusts her to assess the situation and make the call.

In that sense - if Arianne were to refuse to support Aegon this wouldn't necessarily reflect badly on Doran or Trystane but only on Arianne herself. Assuming people cared about Aegon.

Technically, while nobody in Dorne knows about Quentyn's death both Doran and Anders might not be happy with the Aegon thing considering they both expected that Quentyn would return to Westeros with Daenerys as his wife and three dragons. What are they going to do if that still were to happen?

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, actually the only bannerman who, to our knowledge, ever tried to topple and replace his liege lord during the main series was Roose Bolton. And he is a very cold fish. Even the Reynes and Tarbecks never tried to topple the Lannisters and take over the West. They seceded from Casterly Rock, deciding that Tytos Lannister was no longer their liege lord.

Something like that we could, perhaps, assume the Yronwoods would like, too.

But to supplant another house and take its place if it is the ruling house in your region should be all but impossible. Roose Bolton could try to pull that off because the Starks were down to boy lords and had lost their castle already. But even then he was dependent on the backing of the Lannisters and the Iron Throne.

Lord Yronwood could count on none of those things.

during the main series yes, (also excluding Tully for Baelish) but as I claimed, it happens all the time in the history of asoiaf. we can name ten times its happened in the riverlands from Blackwoods to bracken, mudd and Hoare. in the reach with Gardner, in the iron islands with greyiron. most recently in the crowns lands with Targaryen by Baratheon. its is possible and it does happen. 

House Baratheon of Storms end had a powerful army when it attacked kingslanding, but with the feigned Ghost of renly, men switched sides mid battle. do you really think that dorne will love Doran more than their gallant and handsome resurrected dragon-prince?

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

And about Doran: Some people don't like that he seemingly does nothing. But there is no indication that even some Dornish lords have issues with him, personally, or have problems with his rule. And Doran has a very effective system of informers and spies in place. He learned about Arianne's conspiracy in advance and he took steps to prevent it. Chances are very bad that his own bannermen could conspire against him without him knowing about it as soon as they start to think about it.

Even if the Yronwoods were to move against Doran, most of Dorne should stand with the Martells.

That all we hear about him are complaints seems a likely indication of how popular a ruler he is. and don't be so sure he has some wide and powerful spy network. Doran finding out about the conspiracy could just as likely be and is openly suspected of as being treachery by one of Arianne's childhood friends. such would not be so surprising considering we have parallels like roose and bolton's boys. not to say Arianne is like Ramsey, but that Doran has an informant in "her" circle. from that we cannot know the extent to which he keeps spies in other courts in his realm, no more than we've seen from roose. Even him hearing about the plot against Tristian may have just come from Varys.

And if things happen quickly enough, like say the men Anders leads in the boneway follow his lead in allowing fAegon though, or helping him in a like capacity, then we have a large army of dornishmen assemble and helping the golden company + whoever to Sunspear.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Nobody is going to ask Anders opinion on that matter ... and we have no reason to assume he cares all that much about avenging murdered Martells.

But then - I don't think this scenario has much merit since I expect Arianne to side with Aegon, so Lord Yronwood will likely fight and, perhaps, die at Arianne's and Aegon's command. The Boneway army is closest to Storm's End, so if Aegon and Arianne team up the Dornish army might be there to help them deal with the Tyrell army.

it doesn't matter if anyone ask him on the Martell side. Doran just has to do nothing long enough for faegon to reach out to a growingly frustrated Anders like day did with the free companies, and make common cause. Dorne cries for blood, and the people there will support the house that gets it. he's in command there and as a great lord and a person, has some expected degree of ambition. the people want him to avenge Martells, and he has lost a son avenging dad Martells. now a thought dead Martell is asking for help and he just ignores it?

I also expect Arianne to side with fAegon. this post was just an explanation for a complication or Dilemma that exists in the Dornish realm that makes refusing such an alliance so dangerous to the martells. 

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Anyone trying to conquer Dorne is a moron. That doesn't really work and is a very costly business even if it works. To rule Dorne, you would have to take Sunspear ... and that's not something a pretender who came to Westeros to take the Iron Throne and failed at that is likely to do. I mean, Aegon trying to take Sunspear after he failed at taking KL is a joke. Nobody would follow him.

When did I ever claim he failed to take the iron throne in this scenario? A lord can have claim to more than one seat. Depending on support in different areas, he may eve conquer dorne before kings landing. at current Tommen stands to inherit Castely Rock and Strom's end and the iron throne. as his conquest progresses and he takes wives, say Gwyn Yronwood, the children with that wife may operate as house Targaryen of Dorne, a cadet to house Targaryen of kings landing with whatever wife he has there or whatever son he choses as inheritor.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Honestly, go back and reread the circumstances around Quentyn's death. Daenerys had just disappeared, and in the very night of his death a coup was staged, and Quentyn himself was a footnote at that court. Very few people knew him, and even fewer people would have cared that he died. And he didn't die publicly but while trying to steal some dragons. Folks and Meereen learn that the dragons are loose, alright, but would Barristan Selmy publicly announce that Quentyn Martell tried to steal the dragons rather than, you know, just say that the dragons escaped?

Even if some news from Meereen get out of Slaver's Bay in the next couple of weeks - which isn't that likely since the war is likely to continue as the Volantenes are on their way - then this will be about the big things, not the foreign 'prince' who apparently died.

Selmy himself made/ is making the arrangements to send Quent's bones back to Dorne. the iron fleet is at Meereen. if Dany and the fleet made common cause (or barristan more like), the one or two ships with the bones and Drink and/or Arch could drive in Dorne in a matter of months. 

Doran may hold out on faegon in hopes of allying with Dany instead especially if he sees faegon as a fake. when the news Dany isn't coming arrives, and if faegon is doing well in his reconquest, might not Anders see that as a proper time to switch sides? Doran might, but who knows how rejecting faegon and his claim will effect the relationship between Martell and faegon. no well I'd expect.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran won't make the call. He left that completely to Arianne. She has the code to send ravens to the armies in the passes. Doran trusts her to assess the situation and make the call.

In that sense - if Arianne were to refuse to support Aegon this wouldn't necessarily reflect badly on Doran or Trystane but only on Arianne herself. Assuming people cared about Aegon.

Technically, while nobody in Dorne knows about Quentyn's death both Doran and Anders might not be happy with the Aegon thing considering they both expected that Quentyn would return to Westeros with Daenerys as his wife and three dragons. What are they going to do if that still were to happen?

Arianne is her fathers heir. anything she does will reflect on him, and if doran passes in the meantime and she refuse faegon and then becomes ruler dorne, she will be seen as just another doran, or as weakness because she is a woman with a woman heart as a westerosi may derogatory put. it would hurt the Martell dorne relationship just as well, and that she would probably never saw faegon as a baby probably makes her denouncement that much less powerful.

the only choices are, join, wait, or reject and waiting may eventually become as dangerous as rejecting outright if a house turns cloak after faegon build up enough strength and/or takes waiting as rejection. news of quents death will reach first before Dany's decision to head west unless they happen both soon and at about the same time. and that is if she ever heads west.

[BlackLightning]

On 8/15/2021 at 11:25 PM, ash_what_ said:

We can't have all the Dornish in fAegon's side can we?

I actually think that the Daynes and the other Stony Dornishmen (i.e. the people and geography that gave birth to multiple Vulture Kings) will play a lead role in the revelation of Jon's true identity as Rhaegar Targaryen's trueborn heir. I think that they will support him.

On 8/14/2021 at 4:06 PM, Lord Varys said:

Not that I expect that there will be much fighting in Dorne.

Oh that's where we disagree.

Because I think that there will be a lot of fighting in Dorne.

On one hand, I believe Daenerys' main beachfront and continental foothold (at the very least for the Dothraki) will be in Dorne. There's too much foreshadowing and too much symbolism for that to not be the case.

• Ice vs. fire, north vs. south. An existential ice threat coming from north of the Wall, an existential fire threat coming south of the Red Mountains

On the other hand, I think that Dorne may be divided amongst themselves. Most of Dorne will support Aegon but I think some will be supporting Jon Snow and a few will be supporting Dany and/or the red priests. There is a reason why we are due an Areo Hotah POV of him travelling across the Dornish Peninsula hunting a Dayne.

[Lord Varys]

6 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Because I think that there will be a lot of fighting in Dorne.

On one hand, I believe Daenerys' main beachfront and continental foothold (at the very least for the Dothraki) will be in Dorne. There's too much foreshadowing and too much symbolism for that to not be the case.

• Ice vs. fire, north vs. south. An existential ice threat coming from north of the Wall, an existential fire threat coming south of the Red Mountains

On the other hand, I think that Dorne may be divided amongst themselves. Most of Dorne will support Aegon but I think some will be supporting Jon Snow and a few will be supporting Dany and/or the red priests. There is a reason why we are due an Areo Hotah POV of him travelling across the Dornish Peninsula hunting a Dayne.

I can't see anyone supporting Jon Snow in anything, least of all a Dornishman. Yes, the Daynes might know stuff, but that won't translate to political support. Areo is also the only Dornish POV left - and his journey to the Dayne lands could lead him anywhere. Arianne is also not very likely to return to Sunspear soon, especially if she were to become Aegon's queen. Then Trystane will become the heir to Sunspear and Dorne.

Also, anyone trying to invade or conquer Dorne would be a complete moron. Dorne is a hellish place to fight, has nothing to offer in goods or riches you might need to hire more troops, and you have to cross dangerous mountain passes which might be blocked by snow in winter.

Daenerys is never going to land in Dorne if she can help it. There is no reason why she should bother with that land. She wants the Iron Throne of Westeros, not a big desert. The way to take Westeros is to take the Iron Throne. There is a chance that this or that pretender will start campaigns to pacify other regions of the continent - but only after their place on the throne is secure. But even then an invasion of Dorne would make little sense considering the relative unimportance of the country.

The same would also be true for the Vale. Nobody is going to try to invade the Vale in winter because it wouldn't matter if you have a foothold there because you cannot get from the Vale to the rest of Westeros while snow blocks the mountain passes.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

 

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Also, anyone trying to invade or conquer Dorne would be a complete moron. Dorne is a hellish place to fight, has nothing to offer in goods or riches you might need to hire more troops, and you have to cross dangerous mountain passes which might be blocked by snow in winter.

Yeah because that really blew up in Nymeria's face. and its not like Dany has ships in her bay or a refuge population she may wish to move. there is no way Dorne is anywhere close to fracturing as a realm with the new pretenders with claims to the iron throne and Dornish ties popping up and demanding allegiance. and there is no way that dorne may become a more bearable temperature than further north with winter coming...

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Daenerys is never going to land in Dorne if she can help it. There is no reason why she should bother with that land. She wants the Iron Throne of Westeros, not a big desert. The way to take Westeros is to take the Iron Throne. There is a chance that this or that pretender will start campaigns to pacify other regions of the continent - but only after their place on the throne is secure. But even then an invasion of Dorne would make little sense considering the relative unimportance of the country.

yeah because of all the people reaching out to her for an alliance in wetseros, none of them are dornish. yeah because no kings exist or have been crowned in any other place, like old town or Riverrun. Everyone just assumes the person in kings landing is in charge, your'e right. and there is no way she might find some allies in dorne but also some enemies if she lands there and have to fight for her side to secure dorne first.

 

[Darth Sidious]

On 8/16/2021 at 12:25 AM, ash_what_ said:

We can't have all the Dornish in fAegon's side can we?

Civil war is sure to happen. Doran is the one holding them together and he is a sick man.