Will Dorne openly declare for Aegon?

[Makk]

I'm pretty sure Arianne is going to figure out he isn't the son of Rhaegar and Elia. GRRM loves tormenting his characters with hard choices, he is not writing all these Arianne chapters and getting inside her head to miss this opportunity. I am less certain what she will decide from there but suspect she will ultimately decide to write down War (not support him) despite desperately wanting what he offers.

[Lord Varys]

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Delegating authority to one's agents in the field, for the sake of quick reaction during wartime, in no way implies intent to abdicate any of one's own authority. 

At the cost of delay, sure.  I'm sure he also delegated authority to Obara, and Tyene, and Nymeria and the generals of his armies in the field, when he sent them on their respective missions.

Anyway, the choice he authorized Arianne to make basically amounted to "act now" or "wait".  The decision enter the war in support of Aegon seems the only irrevocable decision he authorized her to make.  Which, if that interpretation is correct, is a pretty heavy clue as to which way he is leaning.  He did not, as far as I can tell, authorize Arianne to deliver to (f)Aegon a declaration of war against him.  

You have a rosy view of the man who manipulated her into a Stockholm Syndrome type loyalty to him, by holding her in solitary confinement for so long that she was desperately grateful for his attention.  On some level, Doran is still using her. 

And he still dispenses information on a need-to-know basis.  The reason we see Doran through the eyes of Arianne and Hotah, is because these people only hear what he says, and cannot know what he thinks.

Even in medieval times, people could and did survive with gout for many decades.  Which is a long enough time that gout was generally not considered a fatal disease even then - or perhaps I should say especially then.  Just a very painful one.

What is our point of contention? I said Doran left the decision to decide whether Aegon is Elia's son or not as well as the decision whether to finally attack the regime of King Tommen or not to Arianne, and that's a fact of the story you agree with. Why do you have to pretend we are not on the same page here?

That Doran didn't abdicate as Prince of Dorne is equally clear, but the decision of war or peace is no longer his. He left that to Arianne.

Doran didn't even make clear whether Arianne's call about war or peace should or has to hinge on her buying the story of Aegon's 'true identity'. She could make a calculated (or cynical) choice to support a fake pretender if her conclusion that Dorne plus Aegon's forces were enough to weaken or defeat the forces of King Tommen until such a time that Daenerys and Quentyn finally show up.

Doran wants to avenge his family. That is his agenda. The safety of Dorne and the Dornish people in that game is also important, but working only with genuine pretenders isn't. And he trusts his daughter that she has the same priorities now, and her POV actually indicates his assessment of her character is right there.

As for the gout: Doran clearly suffered from the disease for years, perhaps even a decade, and it got visibly worse between AFfC and ADwD. Both Arianne and Areo think Doran looks very bad when they last see him.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I guess "drinks wine as if it were water" is just your way of saying "he drinks wine", which is I think all one can actually tell from the text.  And I've heard that wine is actually not terrible for gout sufferers - beer being far far worse -- though I'm sure you know better.  You know everything, and you are always 100% sure.

If you are not confident enough to present your case in a convincing manner, I suggest you try to get over your uncertainties ;-).

16 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

There is also a possibility that there will be rebellion against house Martell. After all leader of that house is very sick and tired man and his heir just happens to be away from Dorne and Doran seemed to made him very unpopular among the people. Or house M is now weaker that it has ever been. So if someone wants to rebel and remove Martells as overlord of Dorne now would be right time to do it.

That is not very likely in light of the fact that there isn't the slightest indication that so much as a single Dornish lord loathes Doran or Arianne to a significant degree. The Yronwoods have traditional issues with the Martells, but they never tried to topple them and at this point Lord Anders is one of Doran's leal generals in the Boneway.

There is still a chance that Sunspear and, especially, the Water Gardens might be attacked and sacked/burned ... but not by Dornishmen but by Euron and his Ironborn. Both castles are close to the shore, and Euron's magics allow him control over weather and wind (he attacked the Shield Islands in a manner that allowed him to complete surprise them).

Euron might do that after he has dealt with the Redwynes, taken the Arbor, and learned about Aegon's existence - and the Martells' decision to support him. The boy is going to complicate his plans, so one way to start to break him and Arianne might be to destroy Sunspear, kill Doran, and mutilate and torture Trystane. Chances that he is going to succeed are great at the Water Gardens, less so, if Doran and Trystane were both at Sunspear. The castle is pretty formidable. And the Dornishmen would come to Sunspear's defense as soon as they learned about an attack. Also, both Doran and Trystane might be spirited away in time if there is a lot of fighting before Euron's forces can storm the castle.

Euron will move east in the future, anyway. He wants the Iron Throne and to try to take it, he has to sail up the Narrow Sea. Taking a stop at Sunspear might come in handy on the way in any case. One would also expect that he is going to expect Daenerys and Victarion around the Stepstones to ensure they don't take the Iron Throne without him.

Such an attack could easily mark one the beginning of Aegon's decline. If he succeeds quickly and is crowned king in splendor and might at the Great Sept in front of a cheering crowd - possibly with Arianne at his side as his queen - and he then learns that his uncle/father-in-law and cousin/brother-in-law were brutally murdered he is likely to do something rash. Not to mention what something like that might do to Arianne.

[rotting sea cow]

10 hours ago, Makk said:

I'm pretty sure Arianne is going to figure out he isn't the son of Rhaegar and Elia. GRRM loves tormenting his characters with hard choices, he is not writing all these Arianne chapters and getting inside her head to miss this opportunity. I am less certain what she will decide from there but suspect she will ultimately decide to write down War (not support him) despite desperately wanting what he offers.

Arianne got her own motivations to join team Aegon as the whole idea of King Quentyn makes her uneasy. However, I don't think Arianne will ever feel attracted by Aegon. Once Daemon Sand joins Aegon's kingsguard, things might get spicy.

 

[Mister Smikes]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

What is our point of contention? I said Doran left the decision to decide whether Aegon is Elia's son or not as well as the decision whether to finally attack the regime of King Tommen or not to Arianne, and that's a fact of the story you agree with.

No, I don't agree with either of those things.  At best, they are things Arianne has been led to believe, and even that is not entirely clear.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Why do you have to pretend we are not on the same page here?

We're not on the same page.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That Doran didn't abdicate as Prince of Dorne is equally clear, but the decision of war or peace is no longer his. He left that to Arianne.

Absolutely disagree.  The most that is clearly established is that Doran asked Arianne to send ravens.  

Arianne may (possibly) believe that Doran gave her the authority to order an attack in support of Aegon's invasion.  If she does believe it it may (possibly) even be true.  But even if it is true, and the armies have been authorized by Doran to act the moment they get a raven from Arianne, Doran retains the authority to order such an attack himself.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran didn't even make clear whether Arianne's call about war or peace should or has to hinge on her buying the story of Aegon's 'true identity'.

Yeah, that's one of many things we don't know.

My guess would be that Doran already knows what fAegon looks like, and fully expects Arianne to see what he sees, a boy with Valyrian features and a noticeable Martell family resemblance.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

She could make a calculated (or cynical) choice to support a fake pretender if her conclusion that Dorne plus Aegon's forces were enough to weaken or defeat the forces of King Tommen until such a time that Daenerys and Quentyn finally show up.

In my opinion, Doran has already made the cynical choice to support a fake pretender.  But he does not want Arianne to know that.  He wants Arianne to conclude that he is real.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Doran wants to avenge his family. That is his agenda. The safety of Dorne and the Dornish people in that game is also important, but working only with genuine pretenders isn't.

Agreed.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And he trusts his daughter that she has the same priorities now, and her POV actually indicates his assessment of her character is right there.

Disagree.  Arianne is still being manipulated.  Her POV chapters, and the rose-colored glasses through which she views her relationship with her father, only show the continued success of her Stockholm Syndrome conditioning.  (Doran gave her paternal attention after exposing her to an extended solitary confinement and separating her from all her friends).  And even if Arianne could be trusted in the long term, she is not good at keeping secrets, and Doran dispenses information on a need-to-know basis.  That Doran means to support a fake pretender is simply not something Arianne needs to know.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As for the gout: Doran clearly suffered from the disease for years, perhaps even a decade,

So what?  Even if it were as much as a decade (which is speculation), he may have 5, 10, 15, 20, or 25 years more to live.  By which time the war will be over.  Whether what ultimately kills him is internal organ failure connected to gout is neither here nor there, and perhaps not even something a medieval doctor could assess.  

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

and it got visibly worse between AFfC and ADwD. Both Arianne and Areo think Doran looks very bad when they last see him.

Areo thinks his legs look bad, yes, worse, no.  He says nothing about him getting visibly worse.  And of course, in that chapter he is not as sick as he pretends.  He tells Balon he is ill and must go to bed when actually he is going to plot with the Sand Snakes.  As for Arianne, she sees Doran stand the last time she saw him.   That would have been news to Areo, who thinks Doran's legs have been useless for 3 years.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If you are not confident enough to present your case in a convincing manner, I suggest you try to get over your uncertainties ;-).

I'm fine with uncertainty.  I don't know when Doran is going to die, and I don't think you do either.  

But fine.  If you want me to be more certain, I have now concluded that there is no text that says Doran drinks wine like water.  I think you made it up.  But I'm not inflexible, and will happily change my mind if you provide the quote.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

No, I don't agree with either of those things.  At best, they are things Arianne has been led to believe, and even that is not entirely clear.

We're not on the same page.

Absolutely disagree.  The most that is clearly established is that Doran asked Arianne to send ravens.  

Arianne may (possibly) believe that Doran gave her the authority to order an attack in support of Aegon's invasion.  If she does believe it it may (possibly) even be true.  But even if it is true, and the armies have been authorized by Doran to act the moment they get a raven from Arianne, Doran retains the authority to order such an attack himself.

Yeah, that's one of many things we don't know.

My guess would be that Doran already knows what fAegon looks like, and fully expects Arianne to see what he sees, a boy with Valyrian features and a noticeable Martell family resemblance.

In my opinion, Doran has already made the cynical choice to support a fake pretender.  But he does not want Arianne to know that.  He wants Arianne to conclude that he is real.

Agreed.

Disagree.  Arianne is still being manipulated.  Her POV chapters, and the rose-colored glasses through which she views her relationship with her father, only show the continued success of her Stockholm Syndrome conditioning.  (Doran gave her paternal attention after exposing her to an extended solitary confinement and separating her from all her friends).  And even if Arianne could be trusted in the long term, she is not good at keeping secrets, and Doran dispenses information on a need-to-know basis.  That Doran means to support a fake pretender is simply not something Arianne needs to know.

So what?  Even if it were as much as a decade (which is speculation), he may have 5, 10, 15, 20, or 25 years more to live.  By which time the war will be over.  Whether what ultimately kills him is internal organ failure connected to gout is neither here nor there, and perhaps not even something a medieval doctor could assess.  

Areo thinks his legs look bad, yes, worse, no.  He says nothing about him getting visibly worse.  And of course, in that chapter he is not as sick as he pretends.  He tells Balon he is ill and must go to bed when actually he is going to plot with the Sand Snakes.  As for Arianne, she sees Doran stand the last time she saw him.   That would have been news to Areo, who thinks Doran's legs have been useless for 3 years.

I'm fine with uncertainty.  I don't know when Doran is going to die, and I don't think you do either.  

But fine.  If you want me to be more certain, I have now concluded that there is no text that says Doran drinks wine like water.  I think you made it up.  But I'm not inflexible, and will happily change my mind if you provide the quote.

I'm not sure what's the point of all that speculations about the inner workings of Doran's mind are supposed to accomplish.

The man has no need to pretend. He is the Prince of Dorne, after all. He commands. If he believed Aegon was fake and if he wanted to join him in any case, he would tell that to Arianne. There would be no need to send her to the Stormlands - which is actually a dangerous mission which could get her imprisoned or killed.

Also, Doran not knowing what's going on with Quentyn and Daenerys has no motivation to hook up Arianne with a Targaryen prince if there is still a chance that Queen Daenerys and King Quentyn come knocking at their door next week. After all, an alliance between Aegon and Dorne might be sealed with a marriage between Aegon and Arianne - and that would seriously complicate things if Dany and Quentyn showed up.

Instead, we know what the point of Arianne's mission. She is to find out what's going on and to assess the general situation and what it means for their plans and then make a call. That is why she was given permission and the means to direct the armies.

Doran certainly still could send his own ravens to the armies - but he clearly wants his daughter to make that call for him. Because he himself doesn't go to the Stormlands to meet Aegon himself.

Your Stockholm Syndrome idea also goes against the text. For one, Arianne and her father were never enemies. Doran never wanted to disinherit her and she understands now that this was a misunderstanding on her part. She also understands that her father and her uncle worked together all those years and that they actually had plans to avenge their family on the Lannisters.

Arianne is now part of those plans, she is genuinely on board with her father's plans and goals. You are also wrong that Arianne cannot keep secrets. She couldn't do that all that well when she made her little conspiracy but she is much more careful now. Still, nobody said anything about her having completely changed or her having become a super plotter.

I really don't care much about your or anyone's speculation about Doran's natural life span - I don't expect the books to cover all that much time nor do I expect Doran Martell to die a natural death. But I think it is clear that Doran himself doesn't expect to live much longer due to his general condition and part of the reason why he sent Arianne to Aegon is that he wants to prepare his daughter for her role as the future Princess of Dorne. She will be the one to lead the Dornish armies once fighting begins. First by sending the letters, later by joining the armies and taking supreme command over the forces.

And that is going to be very signficant, politically if (or when) Aegon and Arianne hook up, because Arianne is not just going to be his queen consort but a Ruling Princess in her own right with two armies 20,000 strong. That will give her considerable leeway with Aegon and his people, especially if the Golden Company were to suffer heavy casualties further down the road.

[SeanF]

Yes.  Doran, Arianne, and the Sand Snakes are all pretty much on the same page now.  It's no longer a case of Whether (they go to war) but When. Over and above that, Arianne's POV chapter suggests she very much likes her father's plan that she become Queen of the Seven Kingdoms. So, I think they'll team up with Aegon, regardless of whether they believe he's genuine or not.  With Ser Kevan Lannister dead, they'll never get a better chance to strike at their enemies than now.

[rotting sea cow]

8 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Yes.  Doran, Arianne, and the Sand Snakes are all pretty much on the same page now. 

Yes and no. On one hand, they now understand better what Doran has been doing and why. On the other, they still got their own motivations. You have Obara and her weird obsession with Oldtown. I expect her to show up there at some point. Tyene and Nym still want to extract vengeance and kill Tommen. They might still want to queen Myrcella. Arianne got her complexes with Quentyn and might marry Aegon for not other reason than to avoid the King Quentyn scenario.

Doran thinks he is playing chess cyvasse with them but, as Littlefinger rightly assert, the pieces have their own motivations.

 

8 minutes ago, SeanF said:

It's no longer a case of Whether (they go to war) but When. Over and above that, Arianne's POV chapter suggests she very much likes her father's plan that she become Queen of the Seven Kingdoms. So, I think they'll team up with Aegon, regardless of whether they believe he's genuine or not.  With Ser Kevan Lannister dead, they'll never get a better chance to strike at their enemies than now.

Dorne will join Aegon. No question here. When and How are more interesting. Arianne has indeed the command of the armies and could send ravens as soon as she declares for Aegon. I don't think it will be immediately. There is a battle to be fought with uncertain outcome. Arianne will want any seal the deal with marriage, but JonCon will likely oppose at least at first. At some point Gerris Drinkwater and Archibald Yronwood will return to Dorne with Quentyn's bones and speaking badly of Daenerys. Areo Hotah will return from his hunting in Dayne's lands and report whatever he discovered there. And something will happen in King's Landing with Nym and Tyene.

As you can see, you have an explosive mix that could go in many directions, but with the same end result.

 

[Mister Smikes]

8 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes and no. On one hand, they now understand better what Doran has been doing and why. On the other, they still got their own motivations. You have Obara and her weird obsession with Oldtown. I expect her to show up there at some point. Tyene and Nym still want to extract vengeance and kill Tommen. They might still want to queen Myrcella. Arianne got her complexes with Quentyn and might marry Aegon for not other reason than to avoid the King Quentyn scenario.

Right.  One difference between them is that certain of the Sand Snakes are definitely down with the murder of Lannister children, while Arianne is not.  

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Doran thinks he is playing chess cyvasse with them but, as Littlefinger rightly assert, the pieces have their own motivations.

Sure.  But on the other hand, Doran certainly knows things that we do not.

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Dorne will join Aegon. No question here. When and How are more interesting.

I think he is already pretty much committed to (f)Aegon as far as his preferences go.  But I think he is genuinely nervous about Aegon's ability to win.  The suggestion that (f)Aegon may have shown up without dragons is making him very nervous.  He's not lying to Arianne about that, at least.  

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Arianne has indeed the command of the armies and could send ravens as soon as she declares for Aegon.

Right.  It shows how heavily Doran is leaning toward Aegon, that he is on a knife edge between "act now for Aegon" and "wait a bit more".  And his delegation of some part of this decision to Arianne, of all people, merely because he expects her to get some confirmation of Aegon's strength before he does, shows how torn he is between the need to act quickly and the need to wait for more information.

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I don't think it will be immediately.

I'm not so sure of that.  When Arianne finds out exactly how it was that Aegon took Storms End, she may well be impressed enough to send the right raven.

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There is a battle to be fought with uncertain outcome.

I imagine this is one of the things Arianne will find out about before she sends her raven.

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Arianne will want any seal the deal with marriage, but JonCon will likely oppose at least at first.

Maybe.  But things are really down to the wire, and Doran's back is up against a wall.  I doubt he will be waiting for any marriage deals, unless he can get them without undue delay.

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At some point Gerris Drinkwater and Archibald Yronwood will return to Dorne with Quentyn's bones and speaking badly of Daenerys.

I don't think this will happen.  And if it does, it will be too late to affect Doran's decision.

Anyhow, it was only Gerris (not Archie) who pretended to have a grievance against Dany, and Gerris was only acting.

And if even Archie thinks Gerris sounds stupid, what will Doran think?  It was Doran who pointed out to the Sand Snakes that Oberyn's death was brought about by his own actions.  That argument is triply-true for Quentyn.

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Areo Hotah will return from his hunting in Dayne's lands and report whatever he discovered there.

IMHO, he won't.  Hotah, Obara and Darkstar will join forces, and either launch an attack on the Reach, or wait in place for further orders.  Probably the former. This is not the time to wage war against a vassal who, however evil, wants war with the Iron Throne.

My own sense of story is that GRRM and Doran have teased us long enough, put all the pieces in place, and the shit is about to hit the fan.  I think the waiting and caution and procrastination are about to end.

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And something will happen in King's Landing with Nym and Tyene.

IMHO, any arrival by Myrcella at King's Landing is the end of the line as far as Doran's procrastination is concerned.  He may have been able to fool Ser Balon, but Cersei can tell the difference between Myrcella and Rosamund.  The real Myrcella was slain by Darkstar's poisoned blade, and Doran knows that Myrcella's death means war with the Iron Throne.

 

[Lord Varys]

22 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Yes and no. On one hand, they now understand better what Doran has been doing and why. On the other, they still got their own motivations. You have Obara and her weird obsession with Oldtown. I expect her to show up there at some point. Tyene and Nym still want to extract vengeance and kill Tommen. They might still want to queen Myrcella. Arianne got her complexes with Quentyn and might marry Aegon for not other reason than to avoid the King Quentyn scenario.

Doran thinks he is playing chess cyvasse with them but, as Littlefinger rightly assert, the pieces have their own motivations.

I don't think there will time for much of that. Arianne will decide whether to join Aegon or not in her third chapter. If she doesn't, Aegon will fail and she will be stuck at Storm's End. While it is conceivable that Golden Company will win an original victory over the Tyrell army, that will still lead him nowhere if no major house joins him with their entire strength. Only that can have a ripple effect on other powerful houses. And Randyll Tarly is far too good a general to be defeated by such a small army.

Nym and Tyene might do stuff in KL, but only things that support Aegon and Arianne directly or indirectly. They will not try to fuck with Doran and Arianne after they made their vow. Crowning Myrcella was never truly Tyene's plan - it was Arianne's plan Tyene suggested to Doran on her behalf. And that is a plan that could have only worked while Myrcella was still in Dorne - which she no longer is.

I think the crucial thing for the Sand Snakes in KL will be the public revelation of Gregor Clegane as an undead monster doing Cersei's bidding. That the Dornishmen can neither accept nor forgive. And news about that could reach Arianne at Storm's End, too. The castle isn't that far from KL.

Murdering Tommen and Myrcella is something Arianne and Aegon would only profit from ... if it is done at a time when they are closing in on the city.

Arianne's secret motivation to join Aegon might have to do with her desire to become queen herself ... but we can expect that while she doesn't know about Quentyn she might only try to use Aegon as a tool to harm or defeat the Lannisters. To discard him later when Dany and Quentyn show up. That plan will change when she learns about Dany's marriage to Hizdahr and her alleged death. The news about Quentyn - which should arrive much later - will cause her to view Daenerys as a threat and an enemy.

What Areo and Obara will do is completely unclear, but they definitely don't have the strength to attack Oldtown.

[SeanF]

On 8/25/2021 at 11:37 AM, rotting sea cow said:

Yes and no. On one hand, they now understand better what Doran has been doing and why. On the other, they still got their own motivations. You have Obara and her weird obsession with Oldtown. I expect her to show up there at some point. Tyene and Nym still want to extract vengeance and kill Tommen. They might still want to queen Myrcella. Arianne got her complexes with Quentyn and might marry Aegon for not other reason than to avoid the King Quentyn scenario.

Doran thinks he is playing chess cyvasse with them but, as Littlefinger rightly assert, the pieces have their own motivations.

 

Dorne will join Aegon. No question here. When and How are more interesting. Arianne has indeed the command of the armies and could send ravens as soon as she declares for Aegon. I don't think it will be immediately. There is a battle to be fought with uncertain outcome. Arianne will want any seal the deal with marriage, but JonCon will likely oppose at least at first. At some point Gerris Drinkwater and Archibald Yronwood will return to Dorne with Quentyn's bones and speaking badly of Daenerys. Areo Hotah will return from his hunting in Dayne's lands and report whatever he discovered there. And something will happen in King's Landing with Nym and Tyene.

As you can see, you have an explosive mix that could go in many directions, but with the same end result.

 

Agreed.  Arianne would object to killing Tommen, but I expect Jon Con and the Sand Snakes have other ideas.  I imagine the latter would ruthlessly purge anyone associated with the outgoing regime, after the capital falls.
 

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

I think that Doran will have reserves due to his caution but the opportunity to get revenge on the Lannisters, his pain and grudge when he'll hear about Quentyn's death and Arianne likely going beyond his instructions to marry Aegon and become his queen will cement Dorne in Aegon's side and make it a definitive opponent to Daenerys once she finally arrives and decides to take the Iron Throne for herself. 

[Isobel Harper]

Arianne's arch is setting her up to be both a hostage and a diplomat.  Doran can and would play both of these to his advantage. 

Doran won't follow through with supporting the Lannisters during this invasion,  how his hands are supposedly tied with Arianne being "captured."  Meanwhile in Aegon's court, Arianne will continue to be Doran's eyes and ears, collaborating with her dad and buying time for him on the inside, chiefly making excuses for why her father hasn't sent troops yet and soothing it out for him.

Doran's long-term goal?  Not sure.  Is it to enact Dornish Law?  To put one of his children on the throne?  Both?  Abolish the monarchy?  Personally, I nurse the theory that Arianne is a Blackfyre descendant via her mother, Mellario of Norvos; Dornish Law claim (ie, the line descending from Daena Targaryen) might give her a shot at the throne, with the right (legal and military) allies and political circumstances.