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Dr. Eldon Tyrell

Daenerys, Viserys, and Syrio

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4 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

If he wanted to conquer the world he could've or Viserys I. But they didn't, so this seems to be wrong. 

House Targaryen could have expanded beyond Westeros but they chose otherwise.  I hold them in high regard for practicing responsibility and restraint.  The Dance of the Dragons was the saddest pages in their great history but every family will have its bad apples.  There were just many during that time frame. 

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@Megorova....Can't stuff simply be natural sometimes? You bring up Jaehaerys' children, and say that the ones who died in the cradle died because of the FM. But can't it simply be infant death? That stuff is common for medieval times. 

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2 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

@Megorova....Can't stuff simply be natural sometimes? You bring up Jaehaerys' children, and say that the ones who died in the cradle died because of the FM. But can't it simply be infant death? That stuff is common for medieval times. 

child mortality under seven was like 25-40% back then....

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Just now, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

child mortality under seven was like 25-40% back then....

That helps prove my point. Besides, by now, Alysanne had given birth quite a few times and was approaching the time where ASOIAF women can't give birth. 

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2 minutes ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

such was my intent :)

Thank you. To end this talk for now, until I'm back in the mood: Not everything has to be a conspiracy theory, @Megorova

Edited by Jaenara Belarys

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On 9/5/2021 at 5:48 PM, Megorova said:

No, they are not.

Yes, they are for the most, with few exceptions.

On 9/5/2021 at 5:48 PM, Megorova said:

I figured out that the Three-Eyed Crow is Shiera Seastar, that Septa Lemore's real name is Jeyne Swann and that she is the Perfumed Seneschal, that fAegon's parents are Barristan Selmy and Lemore, that Larra Rogare and Serenei of Lys was the same person, that Old Nan's real name is Alysanne Stark, that the Bastard of Harrenhal is a common ancestor of Catelyn Tully and Petyr Baelish, etc.

Based on what ?

On 9/5/2021 at 5:48 PM, Megorova said:

You may think that I'm exaggerating

Yes, you are exaggerating.

On 9/5/2021 at 5:48 PM, Megorova said:

36. Duncan the Tall (his parents were Daenerys Targaryen and Daemon I Blackfyre, so he was also a dragonseed and he also died because of the Faceless Men who caused the Summerhall's Burning together with the Blackfyres).

Daemon I Blackfyre and Daenerys Targaryen had Valyrian features, Duncan didn't have them, so he can't be their son.

On 9/5/2021 at 5:48 PM, Megorova said:

Now, why they did all of that? Why the Faceless Men infiltrated Targaryen court, for years impersonated Kingsguards, and were killing scores of dragonseeds? For the same reason why they caused the Doom of Valyria - to reduce population of dragonseeds/dragonriders.

If they really wanted to achieve that, then they would have killed Daenys the Dreamer and her family. This way no more worries about dragonriders, they would be gone forever.

On 9/5/2021 at 5:48 PM, Megorova said:

Though, their intentions are not to kill all Targaryens/all dragonseeds. For some reason they kept Dany and Viserys alive. And they didn't killed Robert Baratheon, and there are many other people with the blood of the dragon still present at Westeros, but the Faceless Men let them live. That's because their motives are complex.

How convenient for you, your theory just don't fit the facts, nothing more.

15 hours ago, Megorova said:

It just seems too convenient that those epidemies happened when the FM needed a cover for their activities.

You have to prove the FM genocidal activities before saying "it's just seems too convenient", don't put the cart before the horse.

15 hours ago, Megorova said:

Princess Daenerys had been Targaryen on both sides, with the blood of Old Valyria running pure through her veins, and those of Valyrian descent were not like other men.

Sadly she wasn't pure, her great-grandmother was a Massey, House of First Men origin. Besides the characters are not fully reliable and we have a perfect example here: they don't know anything about immune system or genetics. Targaryen clearly have a god complex who makes them believe they are above others, the Doctrine of Exceptionalism is nothing more than a doctrine, it's not supported by the facts.

16 hours ago, Megorova said:

The thing is - many readers (including me, until recently) have this misconceptions about Targaryens

Quite the opposite.

16 hours ago, Megorova said:

that they are not immune to common human diseases, that they suffer side-effects from imbreeding (though actually they don't) - such as low level of vitality for their babies and pregnant women, Targaryen-brand madness, various deformities or deviations (like Shiera Seastar's heterochromia, etc.).

Those are facts, not misconceptions.

 

Faceless men is your joker to ignore all the facts that contradict the exceptionalism bullshit made by Jaehaerys I to justify the incest's custom of his house, but it won't work. I do agree with those statements though:

On 9/5/2021 at 5:48 PM, Megorova said:

Now there's also Penroses and Plumms (descendants of Elaena Targaryen); Hightowers, Daynes, Arryns and Dondarrions (descendants of Rhaena Targaryen's 6 daughters); there's also Martells and their bannermen (descendants of Daenerys Targaryen and her half-Martell children that married with various Dornish Houses); there's Baratheons and their bannermen who were bloodrelated to them thru previous marriages.

This explains why Betha Blackwood was considered to be beneath Aegon V, while Jenna Dondarrion and Dyanna Dayne weren't.

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17 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Can't stuff simply be natural sometimes? You bring up Jaehaerys' children, and say that the ones who died in the cradle died because of the FM. But can't it simply be infant death? That stuff is common for medieval times. 

I agree, it is likely that some of those Targaryen-babies that died soon after birth or were stillborn, died naturaly; same as some of those Targaryen-women that died after childbirth, also could have died naturally, without involvement of the Faceless Men. Though there were definitely also several Targaryen-babies that were killed by FM. Such as Aegon II's Jaehaerys and Daeron (he lived for 6 months), and Jaehaerys I' Valerion (died two weeeks prior his first birthday).

Those childen had lived for several months after being born. Which means that they hadn't received any serious traumas during their birth, and also that they weren't born with defects - they had fully-developed and normally working hearts, lungs, stomaches able to digest food, etc. And those babies were dragonseeds, so there is no way that they could have later in their lives contacted some sort of disease from their environment - they were immune to all viruses and bacterias. Add to this also that they were well taken care off, well fed, kept in warmth, attended by wet-nurses, nanies and servants. 

So no, usual rules don't apply to them in this case - they were significantly well off than the average Medieval babies, so they couldn't have died because of those reasons that usually caused death to Medieval infants (such as contacting a disease, living in unhealthy and unsafe environment, receiving not enough food, because their mothers were starving peasants and ate not enough food to produce milk nutritious enough to sustain their babies, etc.).

Thus I'm sure that all of Jaehaerys I' children (except Saera and Vaegon) died because of the Faceless Men.

Their firstborn child, Aegon, died because his mother was attacked by assassins, she was guarded by Gyles Morrigen, and he was one of the Faceless Men. So he let those women to attack Alysanne, which later resulted in her child's premature birth and subsequent death. Alysanne's next child - Daenerys was poisoned by the Barefoot Girl who was an FM. The third one, Aemon, was killed by FM that were posing as Myrmen.

The fourth one, Baelon, his death looks like result of Appendicitis. Though, just look at what circumstances predated his death - he was chosen as the King's Hand and on that post replaced the previous one - Ryam Redwyne. Though the thing is is that Ryam Redwyne was a Faceless Man, and he was a Kingsguard. And when the King chosen him also as the King's Hand, he on purpose fucked up everything that he did as a Hand. So then he was dismissed from that post and was replaced by Baelon (but FM wanted a different guy on this post, thus they had to kill Baelon). And then Baelon went on a hunting trip and died. The next Hand - Otto Hightower, father of Queen Alicent Hightower and grandfather of Aegon II, looks very suspicious. It seems that either he also was at certain moment replaced by a Faceless Man, or that Otto Hightower had a common business with the Faceless Men, so that's why they let him become the Hand and then, when he was later replaced by Lyonel Strong, they (FM) possibly killed Lyonel for Otto to become the Hand again. And thus the Dance of the Dragons was (at least partially) orchestrated by the Faceless Men.

The fifth one, Alyssa - "The labor was long and difficult and Alyssa never fully recovered from the childbirth. She died within a year, at the age of twenty-four. Aegon died half a year later, not yet even a year old." - both mother and child were killed by FM. Because if their deaths were natural and caused by the traumas that the mother and the baby received from labour, then they would have died sooner, not nearly a year later.

The sixth, Maegelle - she was a septa and she died from greyscale. "Maegelle nursed children afflicted with greyscale, but became afflicted with greyscale herself and died in 96 AC.[3]" Just think about this - she was a septa and she frequently dealt with things like that (with attending sick people), she was experienced and took necessary safety measures not to contact that disease from her patients. Thus she got greyscale NOT from her patients. She was deliberately infected by the Faceless Men. They just used her patients being sick with greyscale as a cover for them infecting her with that disease. And even if she thought so herself and said to other people - How could this be? I was so careful, I took all safety measures, so how could I have got that disease from my patients? I coudn't have! - And nevertheless she did. Because aside from that source of infection (her patients) handling which she was careful, there was also another source somewhere in her environment, somewhere where she lived, and that source was inserted there by FM. Furthermore, considering that dragonseeds should be immune to all common diseases, including greyscale, it seems that whatever Maegelle died from, wasn't just an average greyscale. It's likely that the FM also used some sort of magic to make the disease to get to Maegelle thru her dragonseed immune system. So either it was greyscale+blood magic, or it was not a greyscale at all, instead it was a dark magic that made her death to look the same as what greyscale does to people. And the FM killed Maegelle because they tried to ruin Jaehaerys' relationship with Alysanne, for them to stop making more babies. But Maegelle was constantly butting in and making her parents to get back together each time after they quarreled. So she had to die.

The seventh, Vaegon - he was a maester, thus the FM let him be.

The eight, Daella - "Daella went into labor a fortnight too early, and had a long and troubled labor. Although her daughter, Aemma Arryn, was healthy, childbed fever began soon after the birth. Her fever only grew worse, and Daella eventually died, at the age of eighteen.[1]" It's likely that her labour was premature, long and troubled because the FM poisoned her. Her fever was caused by that poison. Maybe it was some sort of blood-magic. The FM know blood-magic, because that's how their face-masks work.

The ninth, Saera - she went to Essos and gave birth there to three children. What a coincidence - the Sealord had three dragon eggs, and to hatch them he needed exactly three dragonseed-babies. And out of 13 of Jaehaerys' children survived only those two that were either usefull for the FM (suh as Saera) or weren't butting into their business (like Vaegon).

The tenth, Viserra - her death looks like an accident. Though it is possible that either something was done to her horse, which caused it to go out of control, after which it then threw the rider off and Viserra broke her neck, or the guy with whose horse Viserra's horse collided, did it on purpose, because he was an FM.

The eleventh - "Gaemon died a few days into 74 AC, less than three months old.[1]" When he was born he was viable enough to live without life-support system of his mother's body. And thus his death several months later, wasn't because of natural causes.

The twelth - "Valerion was born in 77 AC after a troubled labor that left his mother, Queen Alysanne Targaryen, bedridden for half a year. Valerion was small at birth, similar to his brother Gaemon. The sickly babe was attended by half a dozen nurses. However, he died the following year, a fortnight before his first nameday.[1]" If he really was naturally unhealthy and weak, then he wouldn't have survived for nearly a year. And he did lived for that long because he was nearly constantly attended by multiple people, which made it difficult for FM to kill him fast, like to smother him with a pillow, and thus they had to take a long way - to poison him a bit every time there appeared an opportunity.

The thirteenth, Gael - they couldn't kill her when she was a child because - "She was cared for by Grand Maester Elysar and Septa Lyra, who nursed her through her first year.[2] After her sisters Alyssa, Daella and Viserra had died within the span of five years, Gael, together with her older sister Maegelle, became a comfort for her mother, Queen Alysanne. Gael became Alysanne’s constant shadow, and even slept with her in her bed.[2]"

- they couldn't get to her.

"In 99 AC, Gael disappeared from court. It was announced that she had died of a summer fever. After the deaths of King Jaehaerys and Queen Alysanne, it was revealed that Gael had been seduced and impregnated by a traveling singer. After Gael had given birth to a stillborn son, she had walked into Blackwater Bay and drowned, overwhelmed by her grief.[2][1]"

- I think that maybe that traveling singer was a Faceless Man. If he wasn't an FM, then GRRM would have revealed his name, and if he was just someone irrelevant for the plot, then GRRM wouldn't have wrote about him at all. That guy seduced Gael because Saera's three children failed to hatch dragon eggs that belonged to the Sealord, so the Sealord needed some other dragonseed-child. Thus he sent one of his people to Gael. In her case it seems fairly convinsing that her child really was stillborn, and then she commited suicide. Though I think that if the child had lived, then Gael's lover would have convinced her to take the baby and for the three of them to elope. And afterwards he would have brought her to Braavos, and then they would have had two more children. Maybe then the Sealord would have been able to get dragons for Braavos. Though because of the baby being stillborn, this plan failed. And later, during the Dance of the Dragons, the Sealord ordered his people to bring him little Maelor. But that plan also failed.

So back to the beginning of the list - 1. Aegon died because of an assassination attempt that happened because Gyles Morrigen (KG-FM) didn't protected pregnant Alysanne; 2. Daenerys - she was poisoned, 100%; 3. Aemon - was assassinated by the FM that were posing as Myrmen; 4. Baelon - his death could have been natural, if not for the circumstances that predated it; 5. Alyssa - died within a year after childbirth, and her baby died 6 months after her. If only she alone died, or if the baby died earlier, then I would have believed that their deaths were natural. Though the timing of their passing - so late after labour - makes their deaths suspicious. And thus I think that they both also were killed by the FM; 6. Maegelle - died supposedly from greyscale. And I would have believed in this caused of her death, that it was natural. Though I don't believe it, because of the role that Maegelle played in her parents' lives. She was an obstacle, and thus she was removed; 10. Viserra - her death looks like a result of an accident. Though 6 of her older siblings were killed, thus I don't believe that her death was an accident and not an assassination; 8, 11, 12. Daella, Gaemon, Valerion - all three of them died too late for the causes of their deaths to be the aftereffects of labour, or traumas received during labour, or the babies being born non-viable. I could have believed that their deaths were natural, if only their older seven siblings haven't died under suspicious circumstances, or from what was obviously an assassinations; 13. Gael - I would have believed that her suicide had nothing to do with the Faceless Men, if only GRRM hadn't mentioned that the man who seduced Gael was a traveling singer. Not just some bard or a singer, but specifically a TRAVELING SINGER, which means MUMMER. The Faceless Men ARE mummers; 7&9 Vaegon and Saera - doesn't it look suspicious to you that out of Jaehaerys' and Alysanne's children only those two lived long lives? The first one wasn't an obstacle or a threat for anyone, and the second one was usefull, as a dragonseed-breeder. So that's why the two of them lived and the other 11 died.

Look at the BIGGER PICTURE. 

17 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

child mortality under seven was like 25-40% back then....

In the royal families, or in the families of peasants?

Because those two categories lived in TOTALLY different conditions.

Thus, as those environmental elements that could have caused an infant's death, in the case with rich people we should remove hunger, cold/or heat, and filth (unsanitarity) from the child's surroundings. Which will lower that percentage, let's say -10% for each of those causes. Do you agree?

So then we'll have [25-40% - 10% (hunger) - 10% (cold/or heat) - 10% (unsanitarity) = 10% tops].

Furthermore, in case with dragonseeds we should also remove all diseases that are caused by viruser and bacterias. Which will lower that percentage at least twice. Do you agree?

Thus, if in case with peasant-babies in Medieval ages child mortality was 25-40%, then for royal dragonseed-babies child mortality should be 5%. And here we have Jaehaerys and Alysanne and their 13 children, 2 out of which died within a year after birth (Gaemon and Valerion) and Daenersy who died prior her 7th birthday.

3 out of 13 is 23%, which is FOUR+ TIMES HIGHER than the natural rate. Thus, their deaths weren't natural.

And, considering that out of 13 of Jaehaerys' children only 5 had lived beyond age 30 (Aemon died aged 37; Baelon died aged 44; Maegelle died aged 34; Saera died aged 34+, Vaegon lived a long life), which was an average life expectancy in Medieval ages

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy#Variation_over_time

, that's 38%.

Look what is written there about aristocrats:

"In Europe, around one-third of infants died in their first year.[14] Once children reached the age of 10, their life expectancy was 32.2 years, and for those who survived to 25, the remaining life expectancy was 23.3 years. Such estimates reflected the life expectancy of adult males from the higher ranks of English society in the Middle Ages, and were similar to that computed for monks of the Christ Church in Canterbury during the 15th century.[27]At age 21, life expectancy of an aristocrat was an additional 43 years (total age 64).[40]"

 Maegelle (septa), Vaelon (maester), Saera (whore) didn't lived a life of aristocrats, thus it would be only fair if we will remove them. So out of the remaining 10 only 2 had lived past age 30 (Aemon and Baelon), that's 20%.

Doesn't it look suspicious to you that even though natural rate of mortality for Targaryen-babies should have been 5%, instead it was 23%; and even though life expectancy in Medieval ages was 30 years, only 20-38% of Jaehaerys' children fitted into that range?

17 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

That helps prove my point.

Actually, it disproves your point.

16 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Not everything has to be a conspiracy theory, @Megorova

:rolleyes: Not everything is.

Though Jaehaerys I's children, same as the children of Aerys II, were killed by the Faceless Men. You'll see.

P.S. I had a feeling that Berserk's author Miura Kentaro will die before completing his work. That was back in 2006, when Berserk's releases (it's a manga/Japanese comics) were regular and the Author was only 40 years old, and there was absolutely no reason to think that he will die a bit less than 15 years later (he died earlier this year, aged 54). But I just KNEW. And I don't have this feeling concerning ASOIAF. Thus I'm sure that we will get TWOW and ADOS, and F&BV2. So let's wait. ^_^ And wait, and wait, and wait. :)

5 hours ago, Willam Stark said:
On 9/5/2021 at 6:48 PM, Megorova said:

I figured out that 1. the Three-Eyed Crow is Shiera Seastar, that 2. Septa Lemore's real name is Jeyne Swann and that she is the Perfumed Seneschal, 3. that fAegon's parents are Barristan Selmy and Lemore, 4. that Larra Rogare and Serenei of Lys was the same person, 5. that Old Nan's real name is Alysanne Stark, 6. that the Bastard of Harrenhal is a common ancestor of Catelyn Tully and Petyr Baelish, etc.

Based on what ?

I explained the basis for those theories here:

1.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159016-swan-song-part-416-shiera-seastar-a-cat-a-shadow-and-a-lying-crow/

2.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159077-swan-song-part-1416-the-perfumed-seneschal-and-the-mummers-dragon/

3.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159052-swan-song-part-1016-what-happened-at-the-kingswood/

4.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159015-swan-song-part-316-larra-rogare-a-chameleon-and-a-cat-woman/

5.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159020-swan-song-part-616-a-brown-haired-girl-and-a-knight-as-tall-as-hodor/

6.

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159021-swan-song-part-716-the-bastard-of-harrenhal/

+

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159078-swan-song-part-1516-the-false-prophet/

There's a lot to read, so if you aren't really interested in finding those answers, then don't bother with it.

5 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Daemon I Blackfyre and Daenerys Targaryen had Valyrian features, Duncan didn't have them, so he can't be their son.

If you're interested in this topic, then read this:

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159019-swan-song-part-516-the-real-cause-of-the-first-blackfyre-rebellion/

Also, we don't know what Dunk looks like, besides him being very tall and having blond hair. Though there are multiple clues in the books about his real identity.

5 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

If they really wanted to achieve that, then they would have killed Daenys the Dreamer and her family. This way no more worries about dragonriders, they would be gone forever.

Their goal is not a total annihilation of all dragonseeds. If that was so, then the current Sealord could have started from himself, because he is also partially Targaryen. Aegon IV is his ancestor, and thru Aegon's mother, Larra Rogare, the Sealord inherited skinchanging genes, same as Arya, who is also Larra's descendant.

You can read about it here:

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159080-swan-song-part-1616-exotic-fruits-on-family-trees/

Down, down, down to the sections "Skinchanging Genes" and "Furry Little Spies & Secondhand Cat". And here ->

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/159078-swan-song-part-1516-the-false-prophet/

read sections "Common Cause" and "Cats, Coins and Pearls".

5 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

the Doctrine of Exceptionalism is nothing more than a doctrine, it's not supported by the facts.

It does. None of the dragonseeds ever at Valyra and none of the Taragryens since Aenar the Exile ever got sick. Aenar and his family migrated to Dragonstone/Westeros in 114 BC, so little Daenerys that died in 60 AC, was the very first Targaryen in the past 174 years who got sick. None of the Targaryens ever before got sick <- that's a fact.

Could it be just luck that no one in their House ever got sick for 174 years, or was that so because they were really immune to all common diseases?

5 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

This explains why Betha Blackwood was considered to be beneath Aegon V, while Jenna Dondarrion and Dyanna Dayne weren't.

In my opinion Betha was Egg's cousin, same as Jenna and Dyanna also were their husbands' cousins, though their ancestors were legitimate, and Betha's mother, Mya Rivers (sister of Bloodraven and daughter of Aegon IV) was a bastard-born. I wrote about it in part 16, section "Patterns & Missing Pieces", the link is above.

5 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Faceless men is your joker to ignore all the facts that contradict the exceptionalism bullshit made by Jaehaerys I to justify the incest's custom of his house,

 

Targaryen immunity is a fact.

F&B - "Targaryens did not die of pox or the bloody flux, they were not afflicted with redspots or brownleg or the shaking sickness, they would not succumb to wormbone or clotted lung or sourgut or any of the myriad pestilences and contagions that the gods, for reasons of their own, see fit to loose on mortal men and women." <- that's a fact, none of them ever got those or other diseases. Jaehaerys didn't made this up.

Edited by Megorova

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4 hours ago, Megorova said:

In the royal families, or in the families of peasants?

Because those two categories lived in TOTALLY different conditions.

Thus, as those environmental elements that could have caused an infant's death, in the case with rich people we should remove hunger, cold/or heat, and filth (unsanitarity) from the child's surroundings. Which will lower that percentage, let's say -10% for each of those causes. Do you agree?

So then we'll have [25-40% - 10% (hunger) - 10% (cold/or heat) - 10% (unsanitarity) = 10% tops].

Furthermore, in case with dragonseeds we should also remove all diseases that are caused by viruser and bacterias. Which will lower that percentage at least twice. Do you agree?

Thus, if in case with peasant-babies in Medieval ages child mortality was 25-40%, then for royal dragonseed-babies child mortality should be 5%. And here we have Jaehaerys and Alysanne and their 13 children, 2 out of which died within a year after birth (Gaemon and Valerion) and Daenersy who died prior her 7th birthday.

3 out of 13 is 23%, which is FOUR+ TIMES HIGHER than the natural rate. Thus, their deaths weren't natural.

And, considering that out of 13 of Jaehaerys' children only 5 had lived beyond age 30 (Aemon died aged 37; Baelon died aged 44; Maegelle died aged 34; Saera died aged 34+, Vaegon lived a long life), which was an average life expectancy in Medieval ages

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy#Variation_over_time

, that's 38%.

Look what is written there about aristocrats:

"In Europe, around one-third of infants died in their first year.[14] Once children reached the age of 10, their life expectancy was 32.2 years, and for those who survived to 25, the remaining life expectancy was 23.3 years. Such estimates reflected the life expectancy of adult males from the higher ranks of English society in the Middle Ages, and were similar to that computed for monks of the Christ Church in Canterbury during the 15th century.[27]At age 21, life expectancy of an aristocrat was an additional 43 years (total age 64).[40]"

"Medieval children perished from natural deaths caused by disease or complications during childbirth and postpartum. In addition, infortunia, or accidental deaths, occurred around the household. Coroners’ inquests confirm that children attached themselves to their gender parent early on and perished performing chores, such as herding animals, ploughing fields, cooking, and doing laundry, alongside their parents and siblings. There are also cases of foul play, or suspicion of foul play, involving children. For instance, mothers and wet nurses were regarded with suspicion if children died under their care, especially in cases of overlaying. Overlaying occurred when women fell asleep on top of children and suffocated them while nursing in bed." 

"Although child death counts are difficult to confirm, historians of medieval childhood estimate that rates are similar to late-Tudor death counts, with 400-500 children out of every thousand dying before the age of ten. Approximately 124 (12.4%) children died between the ages of one and four, and fifty-nine (6%) perished between five and nine years of age. These statistics undoubtedly increased during times of famine and plague."

https://radicaldeathstudies.com/2019/08/20/child-death-and-parental-mourning-in-the-middle-ages/

"Environmental and social barriers prevent access to basic medical resources and thus contribute to an increasing infant mortality rate; 99% of infant deaths occur in developing countries, and 86% of these deaths are due to infections, premature births, complications during delivery, and perinatal asphyxia and birth injuries."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infant_mortality#Causes.   (more modern statistic)

I can't find the statistic but I think the historic rate of death by childbirth was between 16-25% but it could have been higher. I think it's still the sixth leading cause of death in women in the world today.

In addition I'd also like to add that Exposure as a cause of death seems relatively rare unless preformed intentionally and therefore unlikely to be reported/recorded statistically.

I have no dog in this fight btw, this is just information that any are free to use as they wish.

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On 9/1/2021 at 8:10 PM, Prince Rhaego Targaryen said:

Syrio is dead. We will never know if he knew Daenerys and Viserys. It is possible. Think about this. Darry and his companions saved the lives of the heirs to Westeros. They gave up their homes and lives to save the children. Syrio gave up his life to help Arya escape.  Darry and Syrio are alike.  They all lived in the same city. Would you say the chances are better than even that Syrio knew the Princess and her brother?

One line is enough to tell us.  A recollection from Dany of a balding blade master at the Sealord's place is confirmation.  The story is more interesting if they knew one another. 

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15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

"Medieval children perished from natural deaths caused by disease or complications during childbirth and postpartum.

When a Targaryen-baby died 3-6-11,5 months after its birth, isn't it obvious that in this case we can eliminate as a possible cause of death a complications or traumas recieved during the baby's birth? Because if there was a trauma or a complication like that, then the child wouldn't have lived for more that a few days or weeks after being born, it wouldn't have survived for months.

Diseases, as a factor that could have caused a baby's death, we can also cross out, because Targaryens had superior immunity and they didn't get sick, not for 174 years since Aenar and until Daenerys (who actually died from poisoning and not from a disease).

The Barefoot Girl, who was a Faceless Man, orchestrated death of Rego Draz, to prevent him from figuring out and revealing to Targaryens that what they think to be a disease, is actually a poisoning. Rego spoiled their (FMs) plans at Dragonstone. They provided Androw Farman with poison to kill his wife, but instead of killing her, he poisoned her ladies-in-waiting. If Rego didn't got involved, then Targaryens wouldn't have found out that those deaths at Dragonstone were not because of a disease.

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Even then, so lost was the queen in her grief that she did not realize what had happened. It was Rego Draz, the king’s Pentoshi master of coin, who first gave voice to suspicion when Jaehaerys assembled his small council to discuss the deaths on Dragonstone. Reading over Maester Anselm’s accounts, Lord Rego furrowed his brow and said, “Sickness? This is no sickness. A weasel in the guts, dead in a day…this is the tears of Lys.”

“Poison?” King Jaehaerys said in shock.

“We know more of such things in the Free Cities,” Draz assured him. “It is the tears, never doubt it. The old maester would have seen it soon enough, so he had to die first. That is how I would do it. Not that I would. Poison is…dishonorable.”

“Only women were struck down,” objected Lord Velaryon.

“Only women got the poison, then,” said Rego Draz.

When Jaehaerys gathered small council, Gyles Morrigen (who was Lord Commander of the Kingsguards and a Faceless Man) also was present there. And thus he knew that it was Rego, who enlightened Targaryens concerning the poisoning. Thus Rego had to die, not to butt in into FM's business in the future.

And in the next chapter the woman in the crowd, who shouted that Pentoshi brought Shivers to the 7K, also was a Faceless Man. Maybe she and the Barefoot Girl were masks of the same Faceless Man. To assure that the King will do what the FM wanted from him, one of them went with him - "Jaehaerys Targaryen himself rode forth to claim the body, surrounded by his Kingsguard." <- Gyles Morrigen (KG's LC & FM) was there to oversee that afterwards the Barefoot Girl will be sheltered by the Targaryens for her help with aprehending Rego's murderers.

That's how they killed two birds with one stone. ^_^

The girl (FM) led the guards to a man who she later (already after that guy's death) claimed was her father, and then she got place in the kitchens of the Red Keep. GRRM thru her even emphasized for the readers: "Then she told Her Grace that she wanted to work in the kitchens. “That’s where they keeps the bread.”"

Then the King and his family ate a modest meal. But even in the most modest meal there would be bread. So that's the sourse of Daenerys' death - the Barefoot Girl worked in the kitchens, where the cooks were making bread, and she poisoned some of it. And there was Gyles Morrigen present during the meal, to assure that Daenerys, only her and not someone else, will get the poisoned bread. And then she died and there was no Rego Draz anymore to tell to Targaryens that even though Daenerys' symptoms looks similar to the Shivers, they also look similar to the symptoms of the poisoning.

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Amidst the chaos, His Grace would lose another of his lords, not to the Shivers but to ignorance and hate. Rego Draz had never taken up residence in the Red Keep, though there was ample room for him there, and the king had made the offer many times. The Pentoshi preferred his own manse on the Street of Silk, with the Dragonpit looming above him atop the Hill of Rhaenys. There he could entertain his concubines without suffering the disapproval of the court. After ten years in service to the Iron Throne, Lord Rego had grown quite stout, and no longer chose to ride. Instead he moved from manse to castle and back again in an ornate gilded palanquin. Unwisely, his route took him through the reeking heart of Flea Bottom, the foulest and most lawless district of the city.

On that dire day, a dozen of Flea Bottom’s less savory denizens were chasing a piglet down an alley when they chanced to come upon Lord Rego moving through the streets. Some were drunk and all were hungry—the piglet had escaped them—and the sight of the Pentoshi enraged them, for to a man they held the master of coin to blame for the high cost of bread. One wore a sword. Three had knives. The rest snatched up stones and sticks and swarmed the palanquin, driving off Lord Rego’s bearers and spilling his lordship onto the ground. Onlookers said he screamed for help in words none of them could understand.

When his lordship raised his hands to ward off the blows raining down on him, gold and gemstones glittered on every finger, and the attack grew more frenzied still. A woman shouted, “He’s Pentoshi. Them’s the bastards brung the Shivers here.” One of the men pried a stone up from the king’s newly cobbled street and brought it down upon Lord Rego’s head again and again, until only a red mash of blood and bone and brains remained. Thus died the Lord of Air, his skull crushed by one of the very cobblestones he had helped the king lay down. Even then, his assailants were not done with him. Before they ran, they ripped off his fine clothes and cut off all his fingers to lay claim to his rings.

When word reached the Red Keep, Jaehaerys Targaryen himself rode forth to claim the body, surrounded by his Kingsguard. So wroth was His Grace at what he saw that Ser Joffrey Doggett would say afterward, “When I looked upon his face, for a moment it was as if I were looking at his uncle.” The street was full of the curious, come out to see their king or gaze upon the bloody corpse of the Pentoshi moneychanger. Jaehaerys wheeled his horse about and shouted at them. “I would have the name of the men who did this. Speak now, and you will be well rewarded. Hold your tongues, and you will lose them.” Many of the watchers slunk away, but one barefoot girl came forward, squeaking out a name.

The king thanked her, and commanded her to show his knights where this man might be found. She led the Kingsguard to a wine sink where the villain was discovered with a whore in his lap and three of Lord Rego’s rings on his fingers. Under torture, he soon gave up the names of the other attackers, and they were taken one and all. One of their number claimed to have been a Poor Fellow, and cried out that he wished to take the black. “No,” Jaehaerys told him. “The Night’s Watch are men of honor, and you are lower than rats.” Such men as these were unworthy of a clean death by sword or axe, he ruled. Instead they were hung from the walls of the Red Keep, disemboweled, and left to twist until they died, their entrails swinging loose down to their knees.

The girl who had led the king to the killers had a kinder fate. Taken in hand by Queen Alysanne, she was plunged into a tub of hot water for a scrubbing. Her clothes were burned, her head was shaved, and she was fed hot bread and bacon. “There is a place for you in the castle, if you want it,” Alysanne told her when her belly was full. “In the kitchens or the stables, as you wish. Do you have a father?” The girl gave a shy nod and admitted that she did. “He was one o’ them bellies you cut open. The poxy one, wi’ the stye.” Then she told Her Grace that she wanted to work in the kitchens. “That’s where they keeps the bread.”

The old year ended and a new year began, but there were few celebrations anywhere in Westeros to mark the coming of the 60th year since Aegon’s Conquest. A year before great bonfires had been lit in public squares and men and women had danced around them, drinking and laughing, whilst bells rang in the new year. One year later the fires were consuming corpses, and the bells were tolling out the dead. The streets of King’s Landing were empty, especially by night, the alleyways were deep in snow, and icicles hung down from the rooftops, long as spears.

Atop Aegon’s High Hill, King Jaehaerys ordered the gates of the Red Keep closed and barred, and doubled the watch on the castle walls. He and his queen and their children attended sunset services at the castle sept, repaired to Maegor’s Holdfast for a modest meal, and then retired to bed.

It was the hour of the owl when Queen Alysanne was awoken by her daughter shaking her gently by the arm. “Mother,” Princess Daenerys said, “I’m cold.”

There is no need to dwell on all that followed. Daenerys Targaryen was the darling of the realm, and all that could be done for any man was done for her. There were prayers and poultices, hot soups and scalding baths, blankets and furs and hot stones, nettle tea. The princess was six, and years past being weaned, but a wet nurse was summoned, for there were some who believed that mother’s milk could cure the Shivers. Maesters came and went, septons and septas prayed, the king commanded that a hundred new ratcatchers be hired at once, and offered a silver stag for every dead rat, grey or black. Daenerys wanted her kitten, and her kitten was brought to her, though as her shivering grew more violent it squirmed from her grasp and scratched her hand. Near dawn, Jaehaerys bolted to his feet shouting that a dragon was needed, that his daughter must have a dragon, and ravens took wing for Dragonstone, instructing the Dragonkeepers there to bring a hatchling to the Red Keep at once.

None of it mattered. A day and a half after she had woken her mother from sleep complaining of feeling cold, the little princess was dead.

Specific poisons cause specific symptoms. So to mask a poisoning the FM were selecting poisons that cause symptoms similar to a symptoms of a specific disease. These are symptoms of the Shivers:

"The marks of the disease were well-known. It began simply enough, with a chill. Victims would complain of being cold, throw a fresh log on the fire, huddle under a blanket or a pile of furs. Some would call for hot soup, mulled wine, or, against all reason, beer. Neither blankets nor soups could stay the progress of the pestilence. Soon the shivering would begin; mild at first, a trembling, a shudder, but inexorably growing worse. Gooseprickles would march up and down the victim’s limbs like conquering armies. By then the afflicted would be shivering so violently that their teeth would chatter, and their hands and feet would begin to convulse and twitch. When the victim’s lips turned blue and he began to cough up blood, the end was nigh. Once the first chill was felt, the course of the Shivers was swift. Death could come within a day, and no more than one victim in every five recovered."

Daenerys was killed with a poison that causes the same symptoms as the Shivers. Jaehaerys' son Baelon was killed with a poison that caused to the body the same thing as would have been from an Appendicitis. So even after he died, and they cut him open to find out the cause of his death, they haven't found anything that gave out that he was poisoned.

By killing little Daenerys, the Faceless Men set a precedent - that a Valyrian dragonseed, same as an average human, supposedly can get sick and to die from a disease - with her death Targaryens were made to believe that they are not immune. And thus from then on it was easy for the Faceless Men to kill Targaryens (and other dragonseeds) by using various poisons and masking them under the symptoms similar to the symptoms of diseases.

And when I was going thru lists of known in ASOIAF poisons, to determine with which poison exactly little Daenerys was killed, I realised that the Faceless Men not only used various poisons to kill Targaryens, they also used basilisk blood to make them crazy. They did this to Aerys II, and possibly to several other Targaryens too. Maybe Maegor the Cruel, Aerion Brightflame, Aemond One-Eye, Aegon II.

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

In addition, infortunia, or accidental deaths, occurred around the household. Coroners’ inquests confirm that children attached themselves to their gender parent early on and perished performing chores, such as herding animals, ploughing fields, cooking, and doing laundry, alongside their parents and siblings. <- (:lmao:)

You do realise that not only Targaryen-babies but also Targaryen-adults never did any housechores, because they had hundreds of servants who did for them everything?

I assure you that none of the Targaryens ever herded animals, ploughed fields, cooked their own food or did laundry (aside from Egg, who was a special case in his family), either on their own, or alongside their parents or siblings.

As I wrote before - there is a difference between peasants and royals. They lived completely different lives. And the childen of royals didn't had in their environments all those elements that caused death to peasant-babies.

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

For instance, mothers and wet nurses were regarded with suspicion if children died under their care, especially in cases of overlaying. Overlaying occurred when women fell asleep on top of children and suffocated them while nursing in bed."

Which is not the case with any of those Targaryen-babies whose deaths were mentioned in F&B.

Also, that sort of things usually happened because the mother, aside from taking care of her child, also did all the housework, and thus was exhausted and thus fell asleep while she was nursing, which resulted in this overlaying.

15 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

"Although child death counts are difficult to confirm, historians of medieval childhood estimate that rates are similar to late-Tudor death counts, with 400-500 children out of every thousand dying before the age of ten. Approximately 124 (12.4%) children died between the ages of one and four, and fifty-nine (6%) perished between five and nine years of age. These statistics undoubtedly increased during times of famine and plague."

Majority of those children died either from various diseases or in accidents. Which is not the case with those Targaryen-babies about whose death we know from the books. GRRM wrote that they just died/cause of death unknown. Though we can cross out as possible causes of death - diseases, accidents, overlaying, etc.

13 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

:bang:

Which is exactly my reaction to your stubborn inability to think out of the box, and to see at least a possibility that GRRM in his books could have wrote an additional layer of plot (Faceless Men amongst Kingsguards, killing scores of Targaryens (including little babies) and masking those assassinations under guises of diseases or accidents), that he is going to reveal in the future books.

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On 9/10/2021 at 7:50 AM, Megorova said:

Which is exactly my reaction to your stubborn inability to think out of the box, and to see at least a possibility that GRRM in his books could have wrote an additional layer of plot (Faceless Men amongst Kingsguards, killing scores of Targaryens (including little babies) and masking those assassinations under guises of diseases or accidents), that he is going to reveal in the future books.

"I have a wee proposition, if you wouldn't mind giving me a few moments of your time. Would ye consider....JUST SODDING OFF?!"

-The Hobbit, Battle of the Five Armies,

Dain Ironfoot, Lord of the Iron Hills. 

Calling people names isn't going to help you convince them. And in your quest to "think out of the box", you ventured into the realm of tinfoil hat, crackpot theories with no proof. I suppose you believe there's an Illuminati as well. 

Edited by Jaenara Belarys

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On 9/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, Megorova said:

Doesn't it look suspicious to you that even though natural rate of mortality for Targaryen-babies should have been 5%, instead it was 23%; and even though life expectancy in Medieval ages was 30 years, only 20-38% of Jaehaerys' children fitted into that range?

Targaryen are highly inbred which cause a lot of bad stuffs, I let you google that.

Nothing strange when you keep that in mind.

On 9/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, Megorova said:

Targaryen immunity is a fact.

No it's not, your quote is just a Targaryen claim, but it is not supported by the facts. Not getting sick doesn't mean you are immune to all common sickness, immune system doesn't work like that. I would have agree with you if this statement was from a SSM, but it's not the case, F&B has been written from maester Gyldayn PoV, not GRRM, don't forget that. Also the Targaryen from lord Aerion's bloodline (Aegon I's father) are not pure: they have Velaryon and Massey ancestry prior to Jaehaerys I, then Arryn, Rogare, Martell, Dayne and Blackwood ancestry.

On 9/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, Megorova said:

No textual basis for this one, you just assume that Shiera is the Three Eyed Crow because of some Arthurian legend which has no direct link with ASOIAF, you should be more focus on the text and less on other stories that fit your narrative. On Bloodraven's part, you forget that he was a brother of the Night Watch who are also called "crow", confirmed it "A … crow?” The pale lord’s voice was dry. His lips moved slowly, as if they had forgotten how to form words. “Once, aye. Black of garb and black of blood.”, he's a greenseer and Bran's new teacher now. Nothing contradictory here, people can have different nicknames and it seems to be the case for him.

On 9/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, Megorova said:

You didn't explain anything about Septa Lemore being Jeyne Swann here, just made randoms parallels that fit your narrative and said that she is fAegon's mother as if it's obvious when it's not. No textual basis for this specific part as well.

On 9/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, Megorova said:

No textual basis of Varys knowledge about the Promised Prince and any plan to give him birth. No clear explanation about Barristan's Blackfyre ancestry and why Varys would chose him rather than other candidates, you just assume he did because it fits your narrative.

On 9/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, Megorova said:

You cannot say for sure that two fictional characters have IDENTICAL hairlines based on illustrations. Larra and Serenei do look alike but that's all you can say with what you have, nothing more.

On 9/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, Megorova said:

This one is interesting, sounds more like a real theory.

On 9/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, Megorova said:

Really ?! Lord Lothson didn't had kid of his own blood because Aegon IV didn't allowed him to bang his wife ?! One of the worst arguments I’ve ever read, this forum will never stop surprising me...

On 9/9/2021 at 6:38 PM, Megorova said:

Also, we don't know what Dunk looks like, besides him being very tall and having blond hair.

We do know how he looks like: https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Duncan_the_Tall

Absolutely not like a Targaryen, while Daemon Blackfyre and Daenerys Targaryen (Aegon IV daughter) look like true Targaryen, not possible.

Except the 5th theory, these are pure fanfictions in which you rewrite the entire story with your own headcanon, there's a little of GRRM's writings in your swan songs. You have a real obsession for Targaryen, you see their seed almost everywhere and it's kinda cringe, you don't leave any place for plots that don't evolve them.

On 9/10/2021 at 4:50 PM, Megorova said:

Which is exactly my reaction to your stubborn inability to think out of the box, and to see at least a possibility that GRRM in his books could have wrote an additional layer of plot (Faceless Men amongst Kingsguards, killing scores of Targaryens (including little babies) and masking those assassinations under guises of diseases or accidents), that he is going to reveal in the future books.

Good lord, it's your job to convince us not the other way around, your obsession for Targaryen is getting creepy, go get help girl. Seriously.

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