Varysblackfyre321 Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, SeanF said: On the face of it, it seems that most Melenchon voters went for Le Pen. I'm doubtful that would be the case in Metropolitan France, though. Bizarrely, bookies are now offering 12-1 on Le Pen. 7 minutes ago, SeanF said: Bizarrely, bookies are now offering 12-1 on Le Pen. So far it looks pretty good for her no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: So far it looks pretty good for her no? Yes. If that pattern is repeated in Metropolitan France (and it’s a big if)she could well win. It has to be a much better chance than the 7% implied by current odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, SeanF said: Yes. If that pattern is repeated in Metropolitan France (and it’s a big if)she could well win. It has to be a much better chance than the 7% implied by current odds. To be clear the 7% chance of macron winning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Just now, Varysblackfyre321 said: To be clear the 7% chance of macron winning? 12-1 on Le Pen means that punters rate her chances at 7%. 1-12 would be a 7% chance of Macron winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 42 minutes ago, SeanF said: Yes. If that pattern is repeated in Metropolitan France (and it’s a big if)she could well win. It has to be a much better chance than the 7% implied by current odds. I mean, considering the polls had the margin at ~10 points, 7% is already really good odds. Without knowing anything else about a race, if someone was losing in the polls 45 to 55, I'd put their odds at around double that. Anywho, only about two hours til the exits are published... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Just now, DMC said: I mean, considering the polls had the margin at ~10 points, 7% is already really good odds. Without knowing anything else about a race, if someone was losing in the polls 45 to 55, I'd put their odds at around double that. Anywho, only about two hours til the exits are published... Yes, in most two horse races, the odds must be better than that (save for 2002, when it was clear Le Pen senior was going to be flattened). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Very crudely, Trump was within 1-sigma standard deviation while Le Pen is more in the 2-sigma range, you can guesstimate their odds just by assuming that (~32 percent for Trump and ~5% for Le Pen). Interestingly, Melenchon wants to be Prime Minister come June. Quote Mélenchon, a fervent opponent of both Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, pledged that if successful he would force whoever wins the keys to the Élysée tomorrow into an uncomfortable parliamentary “cohabitation” that would hamstring efforts by them to pass reforms the left opposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 5 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: I’m going to guess the polls will be off to a significant degree in le Pen’s favor with many disaffected leftists and progressives not feeling a point in once again having to save the liberal. It's true that the biggest threat to Macron is probably the very lead I'm citing, since it might give such voters the impression that they have the option to stay home as a protest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Trump won in 2015 in spite of all polls. Surely the same thing won't happen in France. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: Very crudely, Trump was within 1-sigma standard deviation while Le Pen is more in the 2-sigma range, you can guesstimate their odds just by assuming that (~32 percent for Trump and ~5% for Le Pen). Interestingly, Melenchon wants to be Prime Minister come June. I doubt if LREM will win a majority, even if Macron is re-elected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 1 minute ago, A True Kaniggit said: Trump won in 2015 in spite of all polls. Surely the same thing won't happen in France. @mormant Edit: the very lead I'm citing, since it might give such voters the impression that they have the option to stay home as a protest. That' s how Clinton lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said: Trump won in 2015 in spite of all polls. Surely the same thing won't happen in France. National polling was very accurate in 2016, correctly giving Clinton a small lead. It was the Electoral College that translated that into a Trump win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 Ipsos has the abstention rate at 28%, an increase from 25.4% in the second round of 2017, but not really a concerning one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, SeanF said: National polling was very accurate in 2016, correctly giving Clinton a small lead. It was the Electoral College that translated that into a Trump win. Does France have an equivalent to the EC? If not, YAY!, Macron wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said: Does France have an equivalent to the EC? If not, YAY!, Macron wins. No. 50% + 1 is enough. The real issue is how left wing voters from Round 1 break. In the West Indies, they broke for Le Pen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, SeanF said: National polling was very accurate in 2016, correctly giving Clinton a small lead. It was the Electoral College that translated that into a Trump win. The polling error in 2016 was about 2 points, which is almost exactly an average error for a presidential election. Both 2020 (in Trump's direction) and 2012 (in Obama's) had errors about double that, but OTOH the 2004 and 2008 polls were right on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, SeanF said: No. 50% + 1 is enough. The real issue is how left wing voters from Round 1 break. In the West Indies, they broke for Le Pen. If macron loses the left will be blamed of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Varysblackfyre321 Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 38 minutes ago, mormont said: It's true that the biggest threat to Macron is probably the very lead I'm citing, since it might give such voters the impression that they have the option to stay home as a protest. Or vote for le pen to send a message to macron or because the blow back to le pen would be so great that the left gets in power during the next elections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanF Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: Or vote for le pen to send a message to macron or because the blow back to le pen would be so great that the left gets in power during the next elections. Exit polls suggest a win of 56/44 or so for Macron, so the West Indies were an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mormont Posted April 24, 2022 Share Posted April 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said: Or vote for le pen to send a message to macron or because the blow back to le pen would be so great that the left gets in power during the next elections. This would be like blowing your own foot off as part of a cunning master plan to avoid doing the dishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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