Jon's Coming Battle with Ramsay

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[Evolett]

On 10/2/2022 at 3:28 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

Did washer women know Abel was Mance? We don't know as far as I recall and Theon certainly doesn't know since when they talk to Theon about him they only talk of Abel, not Mance

And why would the women mention Mance's true name to Theon? The whole party is on a secret and dangerous mission to kidnap Ramsay's bride. Revealing Mance's identity to Theon is a no go and a risk they cannot take. Mance spent years uniting the Freefolk, visiting villages, negotiating with leaders, fighting clans. It's highly likely most of the freefolk know what he looks like. Whether the spearwives were aware of Mance's identity thus depends a lot on if the glamour was still intact at Winterfell. I think it wasn't. There are clearly situations when upholding the glamour is difficult for Mel such as during the burning of the real Rattleshirt. What effect might a great distance between the master and slave ruby have on the glamour? Theon's POVs provide us with his observations, most of which are quite detailed. Correct me if I'm wrong but I don't recall him mentioning the Lord o' Bones armour which Melisandre prescribed as being essential to maintaining the glamour. Mel also chides him for not wearing it at times. When Mel introduces her plan to have him rescue Arya, Mance comments on no one ever trusting Rattleshirt than fools, suggesting that in general, the LoB wasn't favourably regarded by the Freefolk. A scenario where Mance disguised as Rattleshirt goes to Mole's Town to recruit the spearwives to keep up appearances followed by later revealing his identity to gain their trust seems likely to me. And again, with Theon and Jeyne escaped and two spearwives dead, there is no way the rest of the women and Mance weren't rounded up, interogated and tortured. Even if the women weren't aware of Mance's identity, it's entirely possible that Mance volunteered relevant information in a desperate attempt to stop the flaying of his spearwives.

On 10/2/2022 at 3:28 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

And how does he assume that they manage to do that with all those snow storms etc? From Winterfell to Castle Black is a long journey even with horses and that is before the winter storms we witnessed. From Stannis' camp to Castle Black is a long one as well.

It would be obvious that Theon and Jeyne landed in the middle of Crowfood's camp outside the walls and so would receive aid to continue their escape. Two destinations would be Stannis's camp or the Wall. I would also argue that the loss of his bride spured Ramsay on to press the attack on Stannis in full force as soon as possible. 

On 10/2/2022 at 3:28 PM, Corvo the Crow said:

Why would Ramsay sent a letter to Jon asking his bride, that is supposedly Arya, Jon's sister but is in fact Jeyne, back? Why? What does he hope to accomplish?

How would a lord who makes no attempt to retrieve his stolen bride look in the eyes of his supporters?
Jeyne still underpins his claim to Winterfell. Some may have doubts but for all intents and purposes she has been confirmed by Theon and been accepted by most as Ned Stark's daughter. If the worst comes to the worst for the Boltons and Jeyne is confirmed as false, they can always point at Littlefinger, the culprit who produced Jeyne in the first place, and Theon for keeping silent about her identity as well as claim to have been duped by both. That may not go down well with some of their northern supporters but it absolves the Boltons from any blame regarding the false bride. 

There is another aspect that is given no consideration in arguments over the letter's veracity. It's the fact that Roose is Warden of the North and Ramsay Lord of Winterfell and the accompanying role of assissting the NW in defending the Wall that goes with the position. Bowen Marsh was very much against Jon's plans regarding the wildlings. Aiding Stannis was another issue. All these were treacherous acts in his eyes. That Bowen Marsh reported everything going on at the Wall to Roose, the new Warden, including Jon's dealings with Stannis, Val's involvment in contacting Tormund, his allowing the wildlings, arch enemies of the North, through the gates of Castle Black, etc. etc. is more than just likely. What would Roose's response to these first hand accusations against LC Jon be? He would have to take action, even more so because Jon is a defacto Stark and potential danger to his rule (even if that danger soley involves recognising "Arya" as false). 

Clydas' reaction to Ramsay's letter felt very strange to me. It was a nasty piece of work, but why was he so filled with fear? Was he privy to some secret information? Clydas helped with the ravens after Aemon's and Sam's departure. He had access to them and could easily have sent birds off to Winterfell with messages from Bowen Marsh. Karstark had infiltrated Stannis, giving away information to Roose. I suspect the Boltons were also part of the conspiracy against Jon and that the decision had been made to eliminate him, to be carried out by Bowen Marsh and cronies. I also think the letter was the signal, the signature "Trueborn Lord of Winterfell" the cue for the go-ahead. Ramsay's in depth knowledge of those mentioned in the letter (except for Mance) is then self-explanatory. And his demand for fArya from Jon the ultimate twist. With Jon dead, Jeyne cannot be identified as false by a solid witness. In the event of Jon's death,  Ramsay can have his bride back, no problem at all. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Evolett

[Corvo the Crow]

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Edited July 30, 2023 by Corvo the Crow

[the trees have eyes]

On 10/3/2022 at 3:28 AM, Nevets said:

Of course he wants FArya back.  She's his hostage against the Northerners.  Without her safety to worry about, there's nothing stopping them from tearing him into itsy bitsy pieces.  Her absence probably isn't known yet, but it will be, and he needs her back.

Indeed, (F)Arya is essential to his claim to WF succeeding.  Until she bears him an heir he can claim to be the grandchild of Ned Stark he is on incredibly shaky ground.  He needs her back to cement his claim and establish his dynasty.  And as you say she is his hostage for the Northern Lords' good behaviour.  Without her he's a bastard Bolton in a Stark castle with no legitimacy and a whole host of enemies.

Tywin proposed the same marriage-inheritance plan to Tyrion but with Sansa as bride.  That plan would collapse as well if Sansa ran off without Tyrion having an heir.

I'm surprised there is an argument Ramsay doesn't want or need (F)Arya back.

[The Gizzard of Oz]

On 9/27/2022 at 8:09 AM, Craving Peaches said:

I think there is not enough evidence to determine whether Jon is dead or just badly injured, and so whether he would have to be resurrected or just recover from his injuries. If Jon is dead I don't think he would stay dead. Or at least the body won't.

There are evidence.  Not proof, I grant you.  But there are quite solid evidence.  The blood loss, loss of consciousness, and the number of knife entry points.  The primitive medicine of his time means blood transfusion and the like are not going to take place.  Too bad Qyburn is not there to try his methods on Jon Snow.  

[csuszka1948]

On 9/9/2022 at 10:09 PM, Craving Peaches said:

I just feel like it would be more compelling if Jon were to fight Ramsay rather than Stannis. To Stannis, Ramsay is just another opponent, just another obstacle on the path to the throne. Meanwhile, the conflict for Jon  is personal, and I like the symbolism of Jon defeating Ramsay.

 

 

 

I think these kind of vengeance quests tend to end in failure or have a profound cost.

On 9/9/2022 at 10:09 PM, Craving Peaches said:

I agree that Roose is more interesting overall, but I find the contrast between Jon and Ramsay very interesting which is why I think he should fight him rather than Stannis.

If Jon when recovered chooses to go after Ramsay, I don't think he'd need to gather a new army as most of the people going to support him the first time round would still be there...unless something rather drastic happens while Jon is not there. But given how outnumbered the conspirators would be I'm not sure how likely this is. But you could be right. I always thought the main purpose of the attack was so that Jon would learn the hard way that people don't all share his view and also to trigger some sort of change in Jon's character.

I think a scenario where Stannis wins but Ramsay escapes and then Jon has to fight him later could be a possible compromise.

 

 

 

Yes, I agree and I feel something along these lines could happen.

My favorite is this: 

 

Edited June 25, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Craving Peaches]

4 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

I think these kind of vengeance quests tend to end in failure or have a profound cost

I don't think it would be a vengeance quest though... It would probably be a the same as what Jon was trying to do earlier, which was to defend the Watch from Ramsay. Now originally Jon was quite vengeful about it. But hopefully when he comes back he has a bit more introspection.

[SeanF]

On 10/15/2022 at 2:08 AM, The Gizzard of Oz said:

There are evidence.  Not proof, I grant you.  But there are quite solid evidence.  The blood loss, loss of consciousness, and the number of knife entry points.  The primitive medicine of his time means blood transfusion and the like are not going to take place.  Too bad Qyburn is not there to try his methods on Jon Snow.  

OTOH, the freezing cold would mean blood loss would be limited.

[LongRider]

7 hours ago, SeanF said:

OTOH, the freezing cold would mean blood loss would be limited.

Only blood from one wound was mentioned, not from the others.  Horse and Rory were with him, and Jon didn't feel the fourth knife because they stopped it.  Many of the watchmen, free folk and Selye's' men ran out to where the giant was so he can have help right away.  Val may have healer skills as do some of the other spearwives.  This didn't happen in a vacuum.

Edited June 25, 2023 by LongRider

[The Gizzard of Oz]

On 6/25/2023 at 5:28 AM, SeanF said:

OTOH, the freezing cold would mean blood loss would be limited.

I hope not.  I'm backing Dany's claim.  I have a theory on what happened to Jon and will post it later. 

[LongRider]

Just now, The Gizzard of Oz said:

I have a theory on what happened to Jon and will post it later. 

In two weeks, right?

[The Gizzard of Oz]

5 minutes ago, LongRider said:

In two weeks, right?

In a few minutes.  Are you thrilled?  I'm sure you are. 

[csuszka1948]

Honestly, Ramsay seems to be a 'dark mirror' of Jon rather than a shadow.

Jon wants Winterfell, but he doesn't secretly desire to torture for fun.

 

Similarly, Euron might be a dark mirror of Dany - using magic and dragons to enslave people, and Moquorro foresaw him as Dany's greatest enemy.