I am not convinced by Lemongate

[kissdbyfire]

I’m not talking about the abomination, I’m not even talking about lemongate. There was a discussion on how scientifically accurate genetics is or isn’t in Westeros, I had these quotes and I posted them. Yes, they’re talking about the abomination, but the issues they’re discussing - the ridiculously dominant Baratheon genes for black hair are and how inbred a child of Jon & Dany would be - are exactly the same in the books. 

[Gilbert Green]

8 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I’m not talking about the abomination, I’m not even talking about lemongate. There was a discussion on how scientifically accurate genetics is or isn’t in Westeros, I had these quotes and I posted them. Yes, they’re talking about the abomination, but the issues they’re discussing - the ridiculously dominant Baratheon genes for black hair are and how inbred a child of Jon & Dany would be - are exactly the same in the books. 

I still don't understand what you are saying.  Yes, of course it is true that if you followed the Baratheon family tree far enough you would eventually get to blonds.  You would also eventually get to Targaryens as well.  Was the contrary ever claimed?  Ultimately this is about a man from a predomonantly black-haired family who just happens to have only dominant black haired genes.  King Robert is the one who is a man-whore, and the one from whom most of Jon Arryn's evidence is derived.  Why is this impossible?

[the trees have eyes]

9 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Like what?  I agree that a little girl was born on Dragonstone during a storm, and was given the name "Daenaerys" and fled with Ser Darry.  But AFAIK we are entirely dependent on Viserys for concluding that the Dany we know is that same little girl.

If Rhaella's child died then that's the end of the "Dany" storyline because Viserys is heir and there is absolutely no reason to pretend that the dead child actually lived.  Some random baby just happened to have Valyrian features to be substituted?  How would they know the baby would grow to look like a classic Targaryen?  The idea is flimsy but you know this.

[Alester Florent]

9 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

I still don't understand what you are saying.  Yes, of course it is true that if you followed the Baratheon family tree far enough you would eventually get to blonds.  You would also eventually get to Targaryens as well.  Was the contrary ever claimed?  Ultimately this is about a man from a predomonantly black-haired family who just happens to have only dominant black haired genes.  King Robert is the one who is a man-whore, and the one from whom most of Jon Arryn's evidence is derived.  Why is this impossible?

"Grand Maester Malleon recorded he last mating between stag and lion, some ninety years ago, when Tya Lannister wed Gowen Baratheon, third son of the reigning lord... Thirty years before that a male Lannister had taken a Baratheon maid to wife. She had given him three daughters and a son, each black-haired. No matter how far back Ned searched in the brittle yellowed pages, always he found the gold yielding before the coal."

It's not just Robert's bastards. It's every Baratheon for at least 120 years, six or seven generations - and since Ned apparently goes back as far as possible it presumably goes back all the way to Orys and Argella. For a dominant black-haired gene to be preserved in all children of both sexes over that length of time IRL would be extraordinarily improbable.

For that matter, how come all the Lannisters have maintained their golden hair consistently over the same period if the golden-hair gene is apparently recessive?

[Gilbert Green]

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

"Grand Maester Malleon recorded he last mating between stag and lion, some ninety years ago, when Tya Lannister wed Gowen Baratheon, third son of the reigning lord... Thirty years before that a male Lannister had taken a Baratheon maid to wife. She had given him three daughters and a son, each black-haired. No matter how far back Ned searched in the brittle yellowed pages, always he found the gold yielding before the coal."

It's not just Robert's bastards. It's every Baratheon for at least 120 years, six or seven generations - and since Ned apparently goes back as far as possible it presumably goes back all the way to Orys and Argella. For a dominant black-haired gene to be preserved in all children of both sexes over that length of time IRL would be extraordinarily improbable.

So.  He searches back 120 years, and finds TWO (count 'em) TWO examples.  Maybe a few others.

In the case of the Baratheon maid who birthed 4 black-haired Lannisters, it could be that she had some recessive blond gene, and never passed it on simply by luck of the draw.  But after 4 children, the odds are sufficiently against this that the more likely explanation is that, like King Robert, she simply was not a carrier of the recessive blond gene.  But this explanation need only apply to her and to King Robert, not every Baratheon that ever lived.

The other examples are presumably less striking.  We don't even know how many children they had.  Some of these COULD have been carriers of recessive blond gene(s).   But only having one or two black-haired kids would not be enough to rule that out.

And as for the many Baratheons who married black-haired spouses, some of them COULD have been carriers of recessive blond genes, but never had a chance to pass to have the gene manifest even if it was passed on.

1 hour ago, Alester Florent said:

For that matter, how come all the Lannisters have maintained their golden hair consistently over the same period if the golden-hair gene is apparently recessive?

Cousin marriages.  Also, has it been that consistent?   You just quoted me an example of 4 black-haired Lannisters.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Alester Florent]

7 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

So.  He searches back 120 years, and finds TWO (count 'em) TWO examples.  Maybe a few others.

Good grief, seriously? The point is that Ned searches the book thoroughly and cannot find a single counterexample. GRRM gives us two because he is a good writer and doesn't feel the need to quote what the text itself describes as a dry and ponderous tome in full to demonstrate what we need to know: the Baratheon hair gene is super-dominant.

 

7 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Cousin marriages.  Also, has it been that consistent?   You just quoted me an example of 4 black-haired Lannisters.

Yet despite this the current generations of Lannisters - all of them out to second cousins - have blond hair. We know the Lannister family tree for six generations and in all that time there is only one cousin marriage (Tywin and Joanna). The implication further being that the Lannisters have been blond for at least 120 years based on Ned's research.

This is a bizarre hill to die on. I have been searching for a direct quote but from what I have always understood, GRRM himself has admitted that he is not a geneticist and ASoIaF genetics are plot-driven rather than realistic.

[Gilbert Green]

3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

If Rhaella's child died then that's the end of the "Dany" storyline because Viserys is heir and there is absolutely no reason to pretend that the dead child actually lived.  

The reason is because noble girls are routinely used as playing pieces for the forging of military and political alliances, and are well known to be useful for this purpose.

Which is how Dany (whether real or fake) was in fact used.  But it is not necessary to have a specific husband in mind when the scheme was first formulated.

See also the Fake Arya scheme for a similar logic in action.  But I forget.  Had a husband already been decided upon when Fake Arya first began her training?

3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

Some random baby just happened to have Valyrian features to be substituted?  How would they know the baby would grow to look like a classic Targaryen? 

You obtain a replacement child at the age of 3, 4, or 5.  After a suitable period of training, you reintroduce her to the world at 6, 7 or 8.  Not much chance of hair and eye color changing much after this point.  And if anyone wants to know where she's been, you say she's been in hiding to protect her from the hired knives of King Robert.

It's hugely more feasible than the Fake Arya scheme.  Not only do you work with a younger and more malleable child, but you may actually stand assured that the real child isn't going to suddenly show up, because you may have secret-but-sure knowledge that the real child is dead.  And far fewer people are going to be in the position to say "Wait, that's not her; that's actually so-and-so."  

3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

The idea is flimsy but you know this.

About a thousand times less flimsy than the Fake Arya plot.  But I think this subplot, involving a minor character, is a clue and foreshadowing of something more major.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Gilbert Green]

6 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Good grief, seriously? The point is that Ned searches the book thoroughly and cannot find a single counterexample.

So what?  Why would he necessarily find a single counter-example?  Do you think that black haired families don't exist in the real world?  Do you really think this is scientifically inexplicable?

6 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

GRRM gives us two because he is a good writer and doesn't feel the need to quote what the text itself describes as a dry and ponderous tome in full to demonstrate what we need to know: the Baratheon hair gene is super-dominant.

GRRM never discussed genes at all.  He said that the black hair itself was dominant in the family.   This is explicable if most members of the family historically (it does not need to be ALL) have had had no recessive blond genes.

6 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Yet despite this the current generations of Lannisters - all of them out to second cousins - have blond hair.

When blonds marry blondes you tend to get blonds.  I guess Lannister gentlemen prefer blondes.

[Frey family reunion]

20 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

From what we know of each of them, Rhaegar and Viserys look very similar except that Rhaegar is a bit taller (we don't know how much)

Here’s the exact quote:

Quote

“Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second 
glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother’s hair, but he was taller, 
and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac.

 

[Alester Florent]

1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

Here’s the exact quote:

Thanks. So they look similar enough that their sister confuses them at first glance - that seems about what you'd expect.

[Frey family reunion]

15 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

And you don't think this is perhaps because at the age of thirteen he was thrown out on the street to fend for himself, while Aerys and Rhaegar were raised as heirs to the throne in King's Landing?

To be fair, he had been living for a time in Illyrio’s manse.  And Illyrio’s household is definitely not short on food.  Yet despite these surroundings, Viserys remained gaunt.  My guess is his nervous nature, and gauntness could be attributed to his obsession with regaining his throne.  It was basically consuming him.

[kissdbyfire]

13 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Thanks. So they look similar enough that their sister confuses them at first glance - that seems about what you'd expect.

And to drive the point further, we’re talking about a sister who had never met her older brother. 

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

If Rhaella's child died then that's the end of the "Dany" storyline because Viserys is heir and there is absolutely no reason to pretend that the dead child actually lived.  Some random baby just happened to have Valyrian features to be substituted?  How would they know the baby would grow to look like a classic Targaryen?  The idea is flimsy but you know this.

I don’t personally subscribe to the theory that Rhaella’s child actually died.  Instead I think she was used as coin to arrange the marriage alliance with Dorne.  

But for whatever reason that Viserys and Darry are no longer in possession of Viserys’ sister, the reason they would have to obtain a substitute is simple.  She’s the only coin that they can use to try and gain an army for Viserys.  That’s what daughters are often used for in this world, they are used to create alliances.

So if they already used Viserys’ real sister to forge an alliance with Dorne (and perhaps Tyrosh), then they need another coin for Viserys to gain an army (which is what Dorne was requiring of him).  

We already know that Dorne wants to keep their alliance with Viserys a secret, so they wouldn’t advertise that they were now in possession of Viserys’ sister. This secrecy opens up the door to create the fiction that Viserys’ sister hasn’t already been given to create an alliance.  

So they would need a girl that could pass for Viserys sister.  (Just like Illyrio and Varys needed a boy that could pass for Rhaegar’s son).  

My guess is like Illyrio and Varys may have done for Young Griff, Dorne turned to a pillow house or a brothel.  We know from the Worldbook, that Aerys would frequent brothels.  My guess is that he wasn’t the only one of Targaryen descent that has.  We also know that the deceased Lord of Velaryon had a bastard son, so it’s also possible that he frequented the same brothels during the time he lived in King’s Landing as Aerys’ Master of Ships.  My guess is just like the “maternal line” of Blackfyre may have existed in the pillow houses of Lys, a maternal line of Targaryens and Velaryons may have existed in the brothels of King’s Landing. 

We also know that unlike Rhaegar, Oberyn is known for frequenting brothels.  He’s also known for collection children.  It wouldn’t surprise me if he came into possession of a girl with multiple Targaryen/Velaryon ancestry.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Gilbert Green]

53 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

But for whatever reason that Viserys and Darry are no longer in possession of Viserys’ sister, the reason they would have to obtain a substitute is simple.  She’s the only coin that they can use to try and gain an army for Viserys.  That’s what daughters are often used for in this world, they are used to create alliances.

Yes, I don't think it is a critical issue what happened to the original child.   GRRM is perfectly capable of supplying whatever details when the time comes.  She could be alive or she could be dead.  It could go either way, and I think the Fake Arya plot illustrates this.

Rhaella's history is the main reason for thinking the child died.  It was what happened to most of Rhaella's children.  But the laws of probability don't limit the options of an author, if he has a reason to want her alive.

I am amused by the notion of Wylla Manderly being the "real Dany", because of the irony of Wylla being so rabidly pro-Stark.  Also, green hair not as normal for White Harbor as it is for Tyrosh.

53 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

So if they already used Viserys’ real sister to forge an alliance with Dorne (and perhaps Tyrosh), then they need another coin for Viserys to gain an army (which is what Dorne was requiring of him).  

This idea feels wrong to me.  If one pays with the same coin twice, someone is going to eventually know they have been betrayed.  Maybe both parties will feel betrayed because of the doubt sowed.  It is like debasing your own currency by printing money, only worse.  It seems far more likely that the secret was meant to be kept forever.  In the Fake Arya plot, for instance, there is no plan to capture the real Arya and use her a second time.  She is merely presumed dead.

53 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

My guess is like they may have done for Young Griff, they turned to a pillow house or a brothel.  

They turned to Baby Aegon's cousin, Quentyn Martell, who is also a Martell/Valyrian mix due to Blackfyre heritage.  They sent Frog to the Yronwoods as "Quentyn"; and sent Quentyn to Norvos as "Young Griff" to stay with his Blackfyre mother Lemore/Mellario.  The Lysene pillow house story (whether true or not) dates back to grandpa Illyrio and grandma Serra.  Just my own guess.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Frey family reunion]

26 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

This idea feels wrong to me.  If one pays with the same coin twice, someone is going to eventually know they have been betrayed.  Maybe both parties will feel betrayed because of the doubt sowed.  It is like debasing your own currency by printing money, only worse.  It seems far more likely that the secret was meant to be kept forever.  In the Fake Arya plot, for instance, there is no plan to capture the real Arya and use her a second time.  She is merely presumed dead.

Well that depends on how dispensable the party they are planning on duping is.  Which is why I think Dany gets sold to a barbarian.

The assumption is that the barbarian is going to be more easily duped into thinking Dany is the real deal.  And secondly, they don’t intend on having a long term relationship with him.  My guess is his horde was to be used as canon fodder to weaken King’s Landing, so they can swoop in and save the day.

Dany, if she’s not the real deal, would be completely dispensable.  Illyrio doesn’t even think she was going to survive the Dothraki Sea.  I’m not 100% sure that Viserys wasn’t also considered dispensable as well.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Frey family reunion]

27 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Yes, I don't think it is a critical issue what happened to the original child.   GRRM is perfectly capable of supplying whatever details when the time comes

I think he already has with the green haired daughter of the Archon of Tyrosh.

This is probably why green hair gets sent to Dorne when Viserys and Dany came to Tyrosh.  They didn’t want Dany coming into contact with Viserys’ real sister.  

It also explains why the Archon’s brother was at Dany’s wedding shower.  Tyrosh is part of the conspiracy.  

Which might explain why originally GRRM intended for Dany to have grown up in Tyrosh, only to change it to Braavos.  

[Gilbert Green]

13 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Here’s the exact quote:

Another tidbit of info is that, according to Cersei, his face is broad, or at least broader (and comelier) than that of Aurane Waters.  Unclear how this compares to Viserys.  Viserys' face is described as "pinched", which I suppose does not necessarily mean it is not naturally broad -- maybe just his gauntness affecting his features.  Certain illustrations do depict Rhaegar as having a broader face than Viserys, but I am unsure how much this is based on guidance from GRRM.

[Gilbert Green]

12 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Well that depends on how dispensable the party they are planning on duping is.  Which is why I think Dany gets sold to a barbarian.

The assumption is that the barbarian is going to be more easily duped into thinking Dany is the real deal.  And secondly, they don’t intend on having a long term relationship with him.  My guess is his horde was to be used as canon fodder to weaken King’s Landing, so they can swoop in and save the day.

Dany, if she’s not the real deal, would be completely dispensable.  Illyrio doesn’t even think she was going to survive the Dothraki Sea.  I’m not 100% sure that Viserys wasn’t also considered dispensable as well.

I agree that Dany is treated as dispensable.   But that wedding was very public.  It affects the family honor.   Nobody is going to want to marry your sister if you publicly play tricks like that.

But Viserys might be mad enough to do it anyway, and as for Illyrio, he might not care; as he probably regards Viserys as dispensable as well.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Tyrosh Lannister]

Can someone tell me if lemongate is true how does it affect the story besides Danys childhood home not being braavos ?

[Nevets]

1 hour ago, Tyrosh Lannister said:

Can someone tell me if lemongate is true how does it affect the story besides Danys childhood home not being braavos ?

It would mean that she was Rhaegar's child instead of Aerys's, and Jon's sister instead of his aunt.  She would still be a Targaryen princess though, and the last member of her House.  As Rhaegar's child, she might be less prone to madness than if she were Aerys's, though makes her story less interesting, not more.  Half the fun of her story is wondering if she loses it.  So yeah, it would seem to be much ado about nothing, so to say.

There is also the possibility that she and Viserys spent time someplace they weren't supposed to be, like Dorne.  That could raise questions about what the Dornish were up to.  Tyrosh has also been mentioned, though I fail to see the point there.

Edited April 13, 2023 by Nevets