Did Jon Have a Say on Operation Arya Extraction?

[Hugorfonics]

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But Stannis doesn't give shit about that

Of course he does. He wanted to utilize the freefolk as an auxiliary unit, the best way for that is to keep it's commanders commanding 

41 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And he would listen to Jon's expertise on this guy.

I suppose that's true

41 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Information. That's why they keep him around.

About the Dotbishmans wife?

I agree that Mance is invaluable to the effort, but the fact remains is that Stannis isn't about the effort. He's going south to play come in the castle with the Ironborn and Frey, how can Mance be used for that?

I guess, infiltrating Winterfell and stuff, but is this the information Stannis wants that your alluding to?

43 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

She does interact with Mance in her chapter, not with anybody connected to the Edric thing.

Fair enough. Still not the best argument, it's a novel after all and GRRM goes for theatrics instead of reading out the game plan. For instance Tyrion doesn't really think about what his chain will do in acok, only with hindsight or a clear understanding can we see what he's up to 

45 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Even if they could get around that (I don't see how

You know, just wait out back. Watch the car, have a smoke.

46 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

do you think Jon Snow wouldn't, you know, tell Stannis about Mance being alive? Confront him about lying to him and the world? It just makes no sense that Mel would even show Jon who Rattleshirt actually is if it was a secret she was keeping from Stannis.

Id think Jon would keep his mouth shut on the off chance Stannis decides to burn him again.

What's with the secrecy? Why did Stannis gift Mance in the guise of Bones and not just tell him, I'm giving you Rayder?

[BalerionTheCat]

21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Stannis knew that Rattleshirt was Mance. Do you think the guy is stupid? He would never allow such a creature on his council if he didn't know it was Mance. Nor would he give him to Jon who loathes him if he didn't know it was Mance.

Never thought about it before. How could Stannis not know Mance is still alive?

But I did as you said. Read again, carefully. And I found that: "I had my doubts as well, Snow, but why not let her try? It was that, or let Stannis roast me".

I read it as: "Stannis was to burn me. No way out. Only Mel would hide me".

And it makes sense. No way Stannis could control the Free Folk while Mance is alive. So long as he is officially dead, maybe. Or not. But once Mance is discovered, and it will happen at some point, he will lose what little control he has. Stannis can't allow that. Can't allow this kind of "play" with a pretender king.

Rattleshirt in Stannis council? For all his council knew, he was Rattleshirt. No one can say Stannis has no humour. Anyway, Rattleshirt was a Free Folk leader. He was no worse than some of Stannis' knights. And smarter and experienced than all of them together. Anyway. Stannis didn't keep him for his battles to come. He gave him to Jon and the NW. The most wanted wildling after the Weeper! Another joke. IMO, he was expecting the NW to kill him. He would not have done that if he thought he was Mance and wanted him alive.

And why Mel would do that? Deceive Stannis? She certainly thinks she knows better than him. Knew he would not agree. Maybe she still thinks she can gain the Free Folk to her cause?

Anyway, I don't see it important for what to come. Maybe just to make Stannis a bit more like the fool. Or Melisandre a solitary player.

[sweetsunray]

21 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

But I did as you said. Read again, carefully. And I found that: "I had my doubts as well, Snow, but why not let her try? It was that, or let Stannis roast me".

The glamor was Stannis' condition.

Mel cares zero about Westerosi laws. Jon's argument can only have value for Stannis.

[BalerionTheCat]

59 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

The glamor was Stannis' condition.

I don't think. But no matter.

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Mel cares zero about Westerosi laws. Jon's argument can only have value for Stannis.

I don't think anyone cared about that.

[sweetsunray]

7 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

I don't think anyone cared about that.

Mel says the argument was what saved Mance's life

[Springwatch]

On 4/10/2023 at 12:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

Good writing goes beyond "character-building". It includes character-growth. Remember Stannis' remark to Davos about the hawk - when one doesn't work, try a new one.

Yes... but he wants to change the hawk, not himself. There's a lot of consistency in Stannis right through the books - even in Asha's chapter she talks about his justice (harsh). His manner is much the same. This is all consistent with the quote about black iron breaking before it bends (it'd be disappointing if there's not some kind of payoff for that quote). The pressure is falling on his moral compass, I think - Mel encouraging him to burn his enemies, sacrifice Edric, may Shireen later.

But he'll never be a smooth liar or a perfectly performing hypocrite. Years of acting school could not do that for him, he hasn't the talent for it.

On 4/10/2023 at 12:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

I dismissed none. I pointed out that instead it goes deeper than that. Davos losing his fingers and yet being rewarded with knighthood and a keep is a famous example.

The Davos judgement is fine as it is. Lords have a lot of freedom in how they do 'justice', and losing fingers is indeed a known punishment for theft (Tarly: "For theft, I will take a finger.[...]")

On 4/10/2023 at 12:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

And Jon gave Stannis a loophole, or rather an argument that Mel knew she could persuade Stannis with.

Stannis is not Mr Loophole, the slippery lawyer. He's a rigid thinker, and even Mel struggles to change his mind (Edric, the leeches).

On 4/10/2023 at 12:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

Your character perception of Stannis is superficial. Remember the "hawk". Speaking of unfair deceptions: how about Stannis preventing ships that came close to Dragonstone to sail further to and from KL, the year of 298: he was deceiving and preparing to rebel while Robert lived and Ned Stark arrived at KL. I guess that was "just" and "justice" too?

Stannis knows of the twincest, and rightly predicts a war of succession. When Stannis puts his territories on a war footing, he'd consider it perfectly correct to restrict people's rights. It's war.

On 4/10/2023 at 12:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

Doesn't he? Initially he rails against people believing he would ever harm his brother's bastard that he fetched from SE. Several chapters later he is one order away from doing it, if Davos had not rescued the boy. In that time, he begins to look more gaunt than he already was (and he's not making shadow babies anymore). Notice also what Mel does when Jon reveals he's intent on sending Gilly away.

Mel is not just trying to provide an argument for Stannis to forbid Jon sending Gilly away with a baby. She is touching her ruby, and putting pressure onto Stannis.

But Jon reveals Gilly was not just Craster's wife, but his daughter too, and her son the product of this disgusting incest. It provokes an emotion of disgust by Stannis that overcomes any magical pressure Mel attempted to put on Stannis to copy her argument.

Stannis' ruby is also not directly on his skin, but a part of the fake Lightbringer.

Theoretically I'm very interested in Stannis being controlled by the ruby, but I see little sign of it yet. Mel was practically begging him for Edric, but he was just as likely to be guided by his onion knight, and Mel's major weapon was not magic, or even charm, but the moral dilemma of killing one individual to safeguard the entire world.

Mel touching her ruby does sound like she's reaching for fire magic, but not necessarily the controlling kind. It could be she was trying to focus on the latest set of fire visions, to find the right interpretation of what Jon is telling her. It reminds me a little bit of knights touching their sword hilts to help them focus on their duty. If Stannis starts touching the ruby before making a decision, the theory becomes proven I think.

On 4/10/2023 at 12:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

• It is not a figure of speech. The man blames Mance for his daughter being taken by raiders north of the Wall.
• The point is that Stannis is irritated by the demand of a skull of someone who's life he just saved
• Pity that despite just having reread all the necessary chapters and you claiming to not have that bad a memory of it, you just mistakenly argued "he's killing Mance anyway": the war room chapter comes AFTER the burning of Rattleshirt.

Stannis is always irritated by people making demands of him. Anyway, if he's a liar, he can always send a false skull.

On 4/10/2023 at 12:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

Ah, so you agree at least that Mel is basically telling Jon that Stannis saved Mance on Jon's argument.

It was sarcasm. If Stannis says no and Mel says yes, the wise choice is to believe Stannis.

On 4/10/2023 at 12:00 AM, sweetsunray said:

Mel is manipulative, and yes, fudges the truth where she needs, but she also will not make claims about Stannis (in her own darn POV) to  Jon, when she hopes to make both men allies, and these men talk, write and discuss tactics with one another.

Not really claims, and definitely with fudge.

It's a funny thing, but Mance could be of use for his knowledge, for his leadership, for his king's blood, or even as a wine cup - but it turns out he's not used for any of those things. Instead Mel lets him loose on a quest that could be left to others (especially if they focus on the road, not Winterfell).

If Stannis saved Mance to gain his knowledge etc, then he would not consent to letting Mance go, and absolutely not for the purpose of stealing Lord Ramsay's lawful bride.

I say again, it's much simpler if Mel hid the swap from Stannis. Mel is full of trickery, Stannis is obstinate, 'Mance' and 'Rattleshirt' both get their share of king's justice. Everything fits, everything works. **

Why do we need anything different? What is the payoff for this huge theory anyway? It adds nothing.

 

ETA ** Mel's agony serves a purpose too!

[BalerionTheCat]

1 hour ago, sweetsunray said:

Mel says the argument was what saved Mance's life

Hum. If Stannis had decided (which I doubt) to spare Mance because Jon requested it, he would not have made this travesty of execution. It will be disastrous when the truth will be visible. He would better have made a show of magnanimity before the Free Folk. But it's definitely not the style of Stannis.

[sweetsunray]

31 minutes ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Hum. If Stannis had decided (which I doubt) to spare Mance because Jon requested it, he would not have made this travesty of execution. It will be disastrous when the truth will be visible. He would better have made a show of magnanimity before the Free Folk. But it's definitely not the style of Stannis.

It is not because Jon requested it, but because Jon gave a legal argument - the law stops at the wall.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Never thought about it before. How could Stannis not know Mance is still alive?

But I did as you said. Read again, carefully. And I found that: "I had my doubts as well, Snow, but why not let her try? It was that, or let Stannis roast me".

I read it as: "Stannis was to burn me. No way out. Only Mel would hide me".

You can read it that way, but that's not written there. The sentence written there also fits with the idea that Stannis forced Mance to choose between certain death through fire or them trying to disguise him as another person.

Obivously the glamor suggestion came from Mel. She would have reiterated Jon's 'the law ends at the Wall' argument in private conversation with Stannis, suggesting the glamor as a way how they could keep Mance around.

3 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

And it makes sense. No way Stannis could control the Free Folk while Mance is alive. So long as he is officially dead, maybe. Or not. But once Mance is discovered, and it will happen at some point, he will lose what little control he has. Stannis can't allow that. Can't allow this kind of "play" with a pretender king.

Nah, Mance was broken by Stannis in the battle. His kingship ended there. He had to burn so Stannis can keep face - not allow a deserter to live, not allow pretender king to live.

And one imagines the price of the whole thing definitely was that Mance Rayder was dead for good. Mance would never again show up under that name.

3 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Rattleshirt in Stannis council? For all his council knew, he was Rattleshirt. No one can say Stannis has no humour. Anyway, Rattleshirt was a Free Folk leader. He was no worse than some of Stannis' knights. And smarter and experienced than all of them together. Anyway. Stannis didn't keep him for his battles to come. He gave him to Jon and the NW. The most wanted wildling after the Weeper! Another joke. IMO, he was expecting the NW to kill him. He would not have done that if he thought he was Mance and wanted him alive.

Sorry, but Rattleshirt is a thug. And this thug sits on Stannis' innermost war councils, the ones where his thug knights (Horpe, Farring, Suggs, Massey, etc.) actually do not have a voice? Stannis would have to be an utter moron to keep this guy around - and to talk and listen to him.

Rattleshirt is also no prominent wildling leader. There are just a couple of people in his raiding party, no?

Stannis wants Mance to remain at the Wall and advise Jon. That's why he gives him to him. Stannis wouldn't give Jon a man he loathed - especially not a guy like Rattleshirt. He would give Jon permission to kill the guy.

3 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

And why Mel would do that? Deceive Stannis? She certainly thinks she knows better than him. Knew he would not agree. Maybe she still thinks she can gain the Free Folk to her cause?

And that would then be the reason why she thinks in her own POV chapter - quite accurately, I think - that the wildlings are a dooomed people?

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

On 4/10/2023 at 7:14 PM, Lord Varys said:

And it is not just that Mance is handed to Jon by Stannis repeatedly - he also swears himself to Jon. He is his man now. There is no question about that.

When does this happen repeatedly? Stannis gives fRattleshirt to Jon, once, that I recall. 

 

There obviously is question about it, hence the people who disagree lol 

On 4/10/2023 at 7:38 PM, Lord Varys said:

But Stannis doesn't give shit about that. And he would listen to Jon's expertise on this guy.

Sure he does. 

 

On 4/10/2023 at 7:38 PM, Lord Varys said:

Even if they could get around that (I don't see how), do you think Jon Snow wouldn't, you know, tell Stannis about Mance being alive? Confront him about lying to him and the world? It just makes no sense that Mel would even show Jon who Rattleshirt actually is if it was a secret she was keeping from Stannis

I highly doubt Jon will confront Stannis about it. Why would he? I agree Stannis probably knows though. 

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

18 hours ago, BalerionTheCat said:

Never thought about it before. How could Stannis not know Mance is still alive?

But I did as you said. Read again, carefully. And I found that: "I had my doubts as well, Snow, but why not let her try? It was that, or let Stannis roast me".

I read it as: "Stannis was to burn me. No way out. Only Mel would hide me".

And it makes sense. No way Stannis could control the Free Folk while Mance is alive. So long as he is officially dead, maybe. Or not. But once Mance is discovered, and it will happen at some point, he will lose what little control he has. Stannis can't allow that. Can't allow this kind of "play" with a pretender king.

Rattleshirt in Stannis council? For all his council knew, he was Rattleshirt. No one can say Stannis has no humour. Anyway, Rattleshirt was a Free Folk leader. He was no worse than some of Stannis' knights. And smarter and experienced than all of them together. Anyway. Stannis didn't keep him for his battles to come. He gave him to Jon and the NW. The most wanted wildling after the Weeper! Another joke. IMO, he was expecting the NW to kill him. He would not have done that if he thought he was Mance and wanted him alive.

And why Mel would do that? Deceive Stannis? She certainly thinks she knows better than him. Knew he would not agree. Maybe she still thinks she can gain the Free Folk to her cause?

Anyway, I don't see it important for what to come. Maybe just to make Stannis a bit more like the fool. Or Melisandre a solitary player.

You make a really good argument for Stannis not knowing, IMO. I was fairly certain he did, but maybe not. I read that passage the same as you. Stannis wanted to burn me, Mel was the only one who would hide me. 

But like you said, isn't going to make much difference in the end. 

[BalerionTheCat]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You can read it that way, but that's not written there

Maybe. Or not. I keep both options open.

"had my doubts", "let her try" What could fail if Mel and Stannis agreed?

"the laws of men end at the Wall". That is for men taking the black, forgetting their past. Not for deserters. No mercy for them.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Mance was broken by Stannis in the battle. His kingship ended there.

Not for the Free Folk. It's not how they chose who they follow.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Mance would never again show up under that name

Unless dead for good, Mance was to show again. It was inevitable.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And that would then be the reason why she thinks in her own POV chapter - quite accurately, I think - that the wildlings are a dooomed people?

Sometime you don't think something will work, but you try anyway. Because if you don't try, it will not work. It's your duty to help. Your consience.

20 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

It is not because Jon requested it, but because Jon gave a legal argument - the law stops at the wall.

She is playing a tight game at the end of the chapter. Not exactly saying Stannis graced Mance.

Quote

"Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law ..."

"A gift from the Lord of Light … and me."

The last line of chapters are always the "punch lines".
Her. Not a gift from Stannis. Almost saying it aloud.

[three-eyed monkey]

Stannis definitely knew about the switch. It had to be his idea. He is the one who sees a value in Mance, not Mel. The dilemma Stannis faced was that people were calling for Mance to be executed for oathbreaking, and Stannis feels he has to uphold the law, but he didn't want to lose Mance, who he sees as a piece in the game. Mance did not say that Stannis wanted to burn him, he said he was given a choice between get burned or get glamoured and he chose to get glamoured.

Stannis and Mance talked for hours, and the result was that Mance chose to bend the knee (for now), which suggests he was getting something from the negotiation. Mance wanted to get his people south of the Wall and supposedly keep them there, so there is common ground between Mance and Stannis. Mance only bent the knee to achieve this, and Stannis then delivered his part of the bargain.

Mance knows much about the true enemy, sure, that information is helpful, but Stannis is also trying to win the game of thrones. Stannis wants to bind the wildlings to his cause. We can see some of the steps of his plan clearly and we can fill in the blanks based on what we know of Westeros.

We know Stannis plans on wresting the Gift from the Watch, it makes perfect sense that the purpose of that is to have somewhere to settle the wildlings and essentially add them to the North, which he is in the process of trying to win.

It's clear that Stannis plans on marrying Val to the Lord of Winterfell, to seal a peace between the wildlings and the northmen, which is why he keeps insisting that she is a wildling princess and why he gets her to wear a bronze crown. A princess makes the marriage seem more legit in the eyes of the kneelers. The problem is that the free folk don't see it that way because Val is not a princess.

Jon told him that Mance is the only one who could bind the wildlings to his cause, and this is one of the main reasons Stannis wants to keep Mance alive. It's why he entrusted "Rattleshirt" to Jon while he was gone. Stannis needs Mance to bind the wildlings to his cause, the same way a king needs a lord in the Seven Kingdoms to rule over their smallfolk. Stannis wants Mance to give up his false kingship and become essentially his "lord of the gift" or whatever, a new lordship created in the north that fits the wildlings into the existing feudal structure of the realm. Stannis hopes the wildlings stay loyal to Mance, while Mance's son is kept as a hostage in order to keep Mance loyal to him. Again, that's no different than how things often go in the Seven Kingdoms, like when Jaime demanded hostages in the Riverlands. Stannis would have no need for a hostage if he thought Mance had been burned.

Mel is trying to win Jon over, so of course she is going to say he's a gift from her. This is true anyway. Stannis was gone. She was the one who came up with the plan to retrieve Jon's sister using "Rattleshirt". Stannis knew nothing about that part of plan, so that much was Mel.

[Lyanna<3Rhaegar]

On 4/12/2023 at 2:43 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis definitely knew about the switch. It had to be his idea. He is the one who sees a value in Mance, not Mel.

I don't disagree that Stannis knew but Mel must see some value in him right? Isn't she the one that presents the argument to keep him alive to Stannis? 

On 4/12/2023 at 2:43 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis and Mance talked for hours, and the result was that Mance chose to bend the knee (for now), which suggests he was getting something from the negotiation. Mance wanted to get his people south of the Wall and supposedly keep them there, so there is common ground between Mance and Stannis. Mance only bent the knee to achieve this, and Stannis then delivered his part of the bargain.

But it was ultimately Jon's decision to allow them through & weren't they already through when Stannis is talking to Mance? I might be remembering that wrong. 

On 4/12/2023 at 2:43 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Jon told him that Mance is the only one who could bind the wildlings to his cause, and this is one of the main reasons Stannis wants to keep Mance alive. It's why he entrusted "Rattleshirt" to Jon while he was gone.

I'm not following. Stannis needs Mance to bind the wildlings to his cause, I get but why does that equate him entrusting him to Jon? 

He is already bound to Melisandre via the ruby & they hold his son hostage. 

[sweetsunray]

1 hour ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

Isn't she the one that presents the argument to keep him alive to Stannis? 

She was not interested in Mance, until Jon gave that many arguments to Stannis to save his life and clarifies that Mance's son will not serve to bind the wildlings to Stannis, not until Stannis himself allows that Mance is an intelligent man and the best man to bind the wildlings to him.
 

Quote

 

"[...]The only man who can bind them to your cause is Mance Rayder."

"I know that," Stannis said, unhappily. "I have spent hours speaking with the man. He knows much and more of our true enemy, and there is cunning in him, I'll grant you. Even if he were to renounce his kingship, though, the man remains an oathbreaker. Suffer one deserter to live, and you encourage others to desert. No. Laws should be made of iron, not of pudding. Mance Rayder's life is forfeit by every law of the Seven Kingdoms."

"The law ends at the Wall, Your Grace. You could make good use of Mance."

 

So, Stannis expresses unhappiness that he must execute a man he regards as useful and cunning, respects in his way. And Jon gives the legal argument that could persuade Stannis. It's quite clear that with a little nudge and assurances from Mel on Mance's trustworthiness, Stannis would almost be relieved to not execute Mance. So, when Jon is about to depart, she tells Stannis that she will "show" Jon to his rooms. And on her way over she tells Jon that she will inspect her fires about Mance.
 

Quote

Lady Melisandre rose from her place near the hearth. "With your leave, Sire, I will show Lord Snow back to his chambers."

"Why? He knows the way." Stannis waved them both away. "Do what you will. Devan, food. Boiled eggs and lemon water."

After the warmth of the king's solar, the turnpike stair felt bone-chillingly cold. "Wind's rising, m'lady," the serjeant warned Melisandre as he handed Jon back his weapons. "You might want a warmer cloak."

"I have my faith to warm me." The red woman walked beside Jon down the steps. "His Grace is growing fond of you."

"I can tell. He only threatened to behead me twice."

Melisandre laughed. "It is his silences you should fear, not his words." As they stepped out into the yard, the wind filled Jon's cloak and sent it flapping against her. The red priestess brushed the black wool aside and slipped her arm through his. "It may be that you are not wrong about the wildling king. I shall pray for the Lord of Light to send me guidance. When I gaze into the flames, I can see through stone and earth, and find the truth within men's souls. I can speak to kings long dead and children not yet born, and watch the years and seasons flicker past, until the end of days." (aDwD, Jon I)

And in her own POV Mel confirms she has checked her flames on Mance's trustworthiness.

Quote

Melisandre paid the naked steel no mind. If the wildling had meant her harm, she would have seen it in her flames. Danger to her own person was the first thing she had learned to see, back when she was still half a child, a slave girl bound for life to the great red temple. It was still the first thing she looked for whenever she gazed into a fire. (aDwD, Melisandre)

She does have her doubts at times, when he complains about having to wear the bones for the glamor and talks of wanting to die the same way he lived.

Quote

 

"The spell is made of shadow and suggestion. Men see what they expect to see. The bones are part of that." Was I wrong to spare this one? "If the glamor fails, they will kill you."

The wildling began to scrape the dirt out from beneath his nails with the point of his dagger. "I've sung my songs, fought my battles, drunk summer wine, tasted the Dornishman's wife. A man should die the way he's lived. For me that's steel in hand."

Does he dream of death? Could the enemy have touched him? Death is his domain, the dead his soldiers. (aDwD, Melisandre)

 

She has no thoughts of Mance as being significant as she believes Stannis and Jon are, nor has she seen anything bad about him. Her doubts are purely related to his words. Overall, he's a tool to her, a tool she checked in her fires to see whether he would be a danger or not. 

This "background check by flame watching" is what she would have relayed to Stannis, reminding him of Jon's argument.

So how is Mance a tool to Mel? As a binding agent between Stannis and Jon: both men would be happy. And she wants both men to be a team.

[Springwatch]

On 4/12/2023 at 7:43 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Stannis needs Mance to bind the wildlings to his cause, the same way a king needs a lord in the Seven Kingdoms to rule over their smallfolk.

To do that, he'll need to reveal Mance as himself, and decree that Mance gets a pass from the deserter's death sentence.

So why not do that at the start? Because when the wildlings and northmen discover they have been fooled by a fake execution, they will be enraged and forever suspicious of Stannis and his red witch.

[three-eyed monkey]

13 hours ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

I don't disagree that Stannis knew but Mel must see some value in him right? Isn't she the one that presents the argument to keep him alive to Stannis?

Mel sees Mance has value to Stannis, and she wants Stannis to succeed. If Stannis did not value Mance, then Mel would have no motive to keep him alive, and Jon would not have the means to keep him alive. Stannis needs Mance to bind the wildlings to his cause, but the law says Mance must die. Jon presented the argument to keep Mance alive, the laws end at the Wall. Mel provided how to do it with her glamour.

13 hours ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

But it was ultimately Jon's decision to allow them through & weren't they already through when Stannis is talking to Mance? I might be remembering that wrong. 

They started to file through after the burning.

Jon and Stannis are on the same page about this pretty much since the king arrived, but for different reasons. Jon wants to make a common cause against the Others. Stannis wants to bind the wildlings to his cause. However, Stannis is the one in the commanding position at the Wall, due to his strength versus the strength of the Watch. If Stannis didn't want the wildlings in his kingdom, then there was probably little Jon could have done about it while Stannis was still at the Wall, but this was never an issue because they both wanted the same thing.

Stannis talked with Mance for hours, probably once Mance was brought to him after the battle. What the king wanted, which was to bring the free folk into his realm, is the same as what Mance is trying to achieve, which is to get the free folk south of the Wall. Mance has every motive to play along with the king's demands and bend the knee, for now, because that will get his people through the Wall. So in fact Jon, Stannis, and Mance all have the same goal in this respect, but for different reasons.

14 hours ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

I'm not following. Stannis needs Mance to bind the wildlings to his cause, I get but why does that equate him entrusting him to Jon? 

Stannis wants "Rattleshirt" to be kept safe until he returns, because the king has plans for Mance. But before he can put those plans into action, Stannis first needs to deal with his other enemies and win the North. While he's gone he gifts "Rattleshirt" to Jon, essentially making him Jon's responsibility.

14 hours ago, Lyanna&lt;3Rhaegar said:

He is already bound to Melisandre via the ruby & they hold his son hostage. 

Yes, Stannis has entrusted Mance to Mel primarily, as she is obviously in on the switch.

3 hours ago, Springwatch said:

To do that, he'll need to reveal Mance as himself, and decree that Mance gets a pass from the deserter's death sentence.

So why not do that at the start? Because when the wildlings and northmen discover they have been fooled by a fake execution, they will be enraged and forever suspicious of Stannis and his red witch.

Yes, Stannis will need to reveal and pardon Mance, if he is to use him to keep the free folk loyal. There's no getting around that. But Stannis first needs to advance the rest of his plan before he is in a position to do it. Right now, Stannis has little authority in the North, the northmen have no love for him and failed to pay homage, etc. The North is seemingly back under the yolk of the Iron Throne by way of the Boltons.

However, if Stannis can win the north, which he is currently in the process of trying to do by defeating the Bolton's, then he will be in a much stronger position. If the Bolton's are replaced by Stannis, preferably restoring Winterfell to a Stark who is loyal to Stannis, and the North takes up Stannis's cause and accepts him as king, which is what Stannis needs to achieve if he is to challenge for the Iron Throne, then revealing Mance and installing a new lord over the settlers on the Gift would be much easier as the recognized king. This is if everything goes according to plan for Stannis.

The wildlings are unlikely to be enraged by the false execution. Stannis will become the guy who didn't kill The Mance rather than the guy who did. Mance is still alive and the free folk are settled on the Gift with the Wall between them and the Others, which is more or less what they set out to achieve. If there was some trickery used to achieve it, then so be it.

As for the North, Stannis is hoping he can win them to his cause. He wants to use them in his campaign against the Lannisters in King's Landing. He wants them to bend the knee, but what is he offering them? As Davos told Wyman, Stannis is offering justice and vengeance. Vengeance for Ned, and the Young Wolf, and the Red Wedding. Justice for the Freys and Lannisters and Boltons. Stannis needs to win their hearts to his cause if they are to march south with him and be of use in battle. He needs to give them something they want. If he can turn northern eyes south and get them focused on vengeance, then Mance will not be such an issue.

Stannis will still have to seal a peace between the wildlings and the northmen, of course. Marrying Val to his Lord of Winterfell is part of his plan in that regard but if the wildlings are to settle the gift then they will need a lord over them like any other region of the north, the northmen should agree with that, and who better for the task than Mance? Especially when his son is a ward of the Lord of Winterfell or the king. Not burning Mance might enrage some northmen but the reason why Stannis didn't burn Mance makes sense and some will see that. If Mance is the only man who can keep the wildlings in line, so to speak, then it is better for the north that he is still alive.

[Springwatch]

On 4/14/2023 at 2:30 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

Yes, Stannis will need to reveal and pardon Mance, if he is to use him to keep the free folk loyal. There's no getting around that. But Stannis first needs to advance the rest of his plan before he is in a position to do it. Right now, Stannis has little authority in the North, the northmen have no love for him and failed to pay homage, etc. [snip]

Being open about Mance from the beginning would at least make Stannis look strong and principled. He did override the objections of the northern lords when he settled wildlings on the Gift - it didn't lose him support.

On 4/14/2023 at 2:30 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

The wildlings are unlikely to be enraged by the false execution. Stannis will become the guy who didn't kill The Mance rather than the guy who did. Mance is still alive and the free folk are settled on the Gift with the Wall between them and the Others, which is more or less what they set out to achieve. If there was some trickery used to achieve it, then so be it.

Strongly disagree. The burning of the king sealed the defeat of the wildlings, and it was in that mood of despair that they burned their sacred weirwoods and submitted to Stannis. So of course they'll be angered that they were taken for fools at such a tragic moment. Doubly so that at that time, Stannis was promising to give them justice at the same time as burning a man alive for a crime he did not commit.

On 4/14/2023 at 2:30 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

As for the North, Stannis is hoping he can win them to his cause. He wants to use them in his campaign against the Lannisters in King's Landing. He wants them to bend the knee, but what is he offering them? As Davos told Wyman, Stannis is offering justice and vengeance. Vengeance for Ned, and the Young Wolf, and the Red Wedding. Justice for the Freys and Lannisters and Boltons. Stannis needs to win their hearts to his cause if they are to march south with him and be of use in battle. He needs to give them something they want. If he can turn northern eyes south and get them focused on vengeance, then Mance will not be such an issue.

As above, is Stannis still big on justice or not?

What he should be doing is sharing news of the Others and wights with his potential allies. That would give him a good enough reason to keep Mance alive, because of his knowledge. But at any point there'll be huge objections to Mance setting up a wildling kingdom in the Gift.

On 4/14/2023 at 2:30 PM, three-eyed monkey said:

[snip] Not burning Mance might enrage some northmen but the reason why Stannis didn't burn Mance makes sense and some will see that. If Mance is the only man who can keep the wildlings in line, so to speak, then it is better for the north that he is still alive.

Knowledge is the good reason. Because the northern lords have been living with wildling raids for a long time - they understand pretty well that wildlings are proud to be uncontrollable. (There's even a quote from Mance, irrc, saying how hard it is to get the wildlings to do anything, but I don't remember enough of it to find it again.)

And yes, the northerners will be angered when the truth of the burning comes out. They were deceived; it was an unjust and hypocritical act, and it was done by the sorcery of a foreign witch priestess. Not a good look.

The disadvantages are too big, the advantages too small. Mance has very limited control over his people. Stannis has heard most of what he knows already (and other wildlings probably know more). And Mance can't even be hidden very long. He takes off his bones, and the glamour fades. And he can talk freely (e.g. the gift from Lady Red remark) - so he can reveal himself. So why bother? If Stannis wants Mance alive, he could just announce from the start that he's being held for interrogation, as long as necessary.

The false burning does not work for Stannis. He did not want it. He did not know about it.

[BalerionTheCat]

14 hours ago, Springwatch said:

The false burning does not work for Stannis. He did not want it. He did not know about it.

Exactly. This false burning is a lie, a trickery, a deception. And is at the opposite of Stannis' values. How Stannis could expect the Free Folk to believe anything from him after that? Possibly Stannis miscalculated. But he gained eternal distrust of the Free Folk by this act... If he has not been deceived himself.

[three-eyed monkey]

13 hours ago, Springwatch said:

The false burning does not work for Stannis. He did not want it. He did not know about it.

He did want it. He has motive to keep Mance alive. Mel's only motive to save Mance derives from serving Stannis.

He did know about it. This is confirmed. Mel told Jon Mance owed Jon his life, because Stannis is not someone to go against the law, but Jon advised him that the law ended at the Wall. That advice to Stannis, who is the one in a dilemma about keeping Mance alive or executing him to uphold the law, is what saved Mance's life. Stannis obviously feels that by staging the fake burning north of the Wall means it's not something that concerns the laws of the Seven Kingdoms.

13 hours ago, Springwatch said:

As above, is Stannis still big on justice or not?

Above all, Stannis is big on winning the throne. To do that, he needs to win the north which he had hoped to do by replacing the Boltons with Jon in Winterfell. He needs to bind the wildlings to his cause, which he plans on doing using Mance who is the only one who can do that. And he needs to seal a peace between the wildlings and northmen, by marrying Val to his new Lord of Winterfell. At the end of Dance, these are the goals he is working towards. He's still planning ahead towards the throne, as we see with the Iron Bank and the sellswords and the potential Greyjoy heirs, but these are his immediate goals regarding the North. And Jon, Mance, Val and Monster are central to them.

As for justice, Stannis is big on it. Stannis is also big on the law, but we should differentiate between the two. His claim to the throne is based on the law, so he cannot go against it. He says the law should be iron not pudding, which we should expect from someone whose claim is the true one according to the law. Justice is another matter.

Stannis portrays himself as just because people generally want a king that is just, so it's a selling point for any king as justice in the Seven Kingdoms is meant to flow from the king. Varys describes Stannis as a truly just man, but one of the main themes of the story is that the line between vengeance and justice is often blurred. Stannis would bring justice to the realm by removing Cersei's abominations from the throne they have no right to by law, replacing them as the lawful king, and then scouring the court clean of malignant influences like Varys and Littlefinger. Sure, that's on the surface but beneath it there is a strong sense that he is also driven by a want for revenge against all those who have slighted him over the years.

Justice is the concept that everyone gets what they deserve. In that sense, the throne would be the ultimate justice for Stannis, as far as he is concerned. The law says it is his, not Joffrey or Tommen's or Renly's or anyone else. He always did his duty to Robert, not because he was his brother but because he was his king. He feels he did everything right. He says it's now his duty by law to take the throne, but he clearly feels that he's also earned it and deserves it.

His quest for the throne is what drives Stannis, that is his primary goal. The law that says he is king is the law he is most concerned about. Him getting what he deserves is the justice he is most concerned about. Stannis was iron, strong and inflexible, but he has an arc and he is changing. He emerged from the furnace on the Blackwater as tempered steel. He's far more willing to do whatever is necessary to achieve his goal, and that includes finding a loophole in the law if it is needed or carrying out fake executions.

We haven't even touched on his deepest desires and the role of his shadow, but my point is that Stannis is a far deeper character than what is portrayed at the surface.