“Reports of their deaths have been greatly exaggerated”

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, divica said:

One thing I think I have never seen debated is what was jon plan after defeating the boltons. who would rule the north? how to convince people he isn't abandoning the nw and marching his personal army of wildlings to rule over the north? how to make peace between the northern people around and the wildlings? How to convince the northern lords the others are real and that the besides all the problems the north has at the moment they need to man the wall.

 

His plan was to intercept Ramsay before he could make it to the Wall. There's no plan on who will rule the North, I think that's a bridge that would be crossed when they got there. Jon thinks it's at least possible Stannis died, so he probably thinks that, for now, Roose will remain Warden. That's not his immediate concern, his immediate concern is the situation at the Wall. 

[divica]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

His plan was to intercept Ramsay before he could make it to the Wall. There's no plan on who will rule the North, I think that's a bridge that would be crossed when they got there. Jon thinks it's at least possible Stannis died, so he probably thinks that, for now, Roose will remain Warden. That's not his immediate concern, his immediate concern is the situation at the Wall. 

But if he kills ramsay then if roose is alive he would be coming for him/the nw. And if I remember correctly it is jon that says to stannis if he marches with wildlings to winterfell the north would unite against him. 

A plan " we will go out and kill ramsay" doesn't solve the problem at all. And it can even make thing worse by making the nw a common enemy to all northern lords.

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, divica said:

But if he kills ramsay then if roose is alive he would be coming for him/the nw. And if I remember correctly it is jon that says to stannis if he marches with wildlings to winterfell the north would unite against him. 

Roose knows his situation is very precarious. What is he going to do, march out of the safest castle in the North in very harsh weather to March for 3 weeks (in good weather, so it would  be longer than that) and then, what? Arrives at the Wall and does what? He's in no position to do that and he knows it. 

8 minutes ago, divica said:

A plan " we will go out and kill ramsay" doesn't solve the problem at all. And it can even make thing worse by making the nw a common enemy to all northern lords.

What problem doesn't it solve? 

What are you saying? The whole north hates the Boltons, even if they brlieve Barbrey is an ally - and I don't think she is. 

[csuszka1948]

57 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

His plan was to intercept Ramsay before he could make it to the Wall. There's no plan on who will rule the North, I think that's a bridge that would be crossed when they got there. Jon thinks it's at least possible Stannis died, so he probably thinks that, for now, Roose will remain Warden. That's not his immediate concern, his immediate concern is the situation at the Wall. 

 

That doesn't make any sense. If Roose is the Warden, then Jon should write to him and negotiate with him, because his son is his subordinate and he can order him back.

The weather is pretty bad so marching from WF to Castle Black would take a long time and most Northern lords would be unwilling to follow Ramsay on such a quest. Why doesn't Jon prepare for battle somewhere close to the Wall? He has much better chances of winning there and he would have the (almost) full support of the NW and wildlings in such a case.

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

Why is that quote proof for this?

As I understood it, Varamyr took away the possibility of second life from an old Haggon whose human body was on the brink of death by claiming his beast as his own and (not long) after that Haggon died weeping. His spirit didn't die in Greyskin, it died in his human body (weeping).

If Jon dies, his spirit will go into a wolf to live a second life, but that doesn't mean that when the connection betwen his 'second life' and his original body is reestablished (by Melisandre resurrecting him), his spirit cannot 'go back'.  

Two times in the Prologue Varamyr remembers driving out Haggon's spirit from Greyskins and Haggon's spirit dying.  Read it for yourself. 

 

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

Q: And Jon Snow, too, is drained by the experience of coming back from the dead on the show.

To paraphrase the Hound; fuck the show. 

[csuszka1948]

40 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Roose knows his situation is very precarious. What is he going to do, march out of the safest castle in the North in very harsh weather to March for 3 weeks (in good weather, so it would  be longer than that) and then, what? Arrives at the Wall and does what? He's in no position to do that and he knows it. 

 

Yes, you are on spot.

Roose and Ramsay are probably in no position to march on the Wall and wouldn't get much support from the other Northern lords for such an endeavor. Then answer me, why in the hell does Jon respond to their empty threats by marching out to give battle to them?

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

That doesn't make any sense. If Roose is the Warden, then Jon should write to him and negotiate with him, because his son is his subordinate and he can order him back.

Ramsay is a deranged psycho, the whole North knows this. What could Jon hope to achieve by writing to Roose Bolton? Puhleeese. 

3 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

The weather is pretty bad so marching from WF to Castle Black would take a long time and most Northern lords would be unwilling to follow Ramsay on such a quest. Why doesn't Jon prepare for battle somewhere close to the Wall? He has much better chances of winning there and he would have the (almost) full support of the NW and wildlings in such a case.

Because he doesn't necessarily want Ramsay near CB, especially now w/ everything that's going on. I also imagine he may have hopes of bumping into Mance and/or some of the spearwives who could need help, although this is just a guess. 

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, LongRider said:

To paraphrase the Hound; fuck the show

Hear, hear!

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Yes, you are on spot.

Roose and Ramsay are probably in no position to march on the Wall and wouldn't get much support from the other Northern lords for such an endeavor. Then answer me, why in the hell does Jon respond to their empty threats by marching out to give battle to them?

Sigh. It's not THEIR empty threats, it's Ramsay's threats. And the issue is, Jon knows some things in the letter are true, he also knows Ramsay is a deranged psycho. He has to take Ramsay's threats seriously, he can't afford not to. 

 

[sweetsunray]

On 4/19/2023 at 1:36 AM, Castellan said:

But Kevan - I really don't think a crossbow is anything to laugh at. He's dead.

He wasn't killed by crossbow bolt, but 6 little birds with knifes who cut him up, after he was quarreled.

[Mithras]

On 4/19/2023 at 12:27 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Jon’s not dead. The “amount of blood” is exactly what you’d expect from a head wound, as any kid who’s ever tripped and got a cut to their forehead would tell you. 
Kevan is very dead. 

Agreed. There are a lot of characters that survived far worse than Jon's condition. Mance and the shadowcat for example. Or Aegon II. Or Sandor. Even Bran should not have survived if not for his direwolf.

[sweetsunray]

20 hours ago, divica said:

Either because ghost was agressive against a bull belonging to a wildling skinchanger and therefore jon decided to lock him up in his room or because it was a plot by the others. This could explain the steward's reaction or bowen's tears (they are a bit of an exageration given he didn't seem to care all that much about jon). 

Much of the weirdness is Others related.

Ghost is aggressive in the morning only/early in the day, even towards Jon himself. Only time animals ever snarl or become aggressive to their handler is when the Others are near. In fact, only time Ghost ever warned Jon off in an aggressive manner before was the night that Othor had crept to Jeor'd officein aGoT. Jon blames the stink of the boar, but at the time snowclouds are rolling in from the north. Jon looks to the Wall and the sky above, right before the Ghost incident, and sees a snowsky. If in CB you look at the Wall and the sky above, you're looking north. Raven is screaming snow in agitation as well at the time.

Much later Ghost sniffs Marsh in a domination stance. Many readers speculate Ghost is suspicious of Bowen at the time, but George very much describes the body language of  relaxed dominant stance of a wolf when Ghost sniffs Bowen and Yarwick. By then the snowstorm has started, and the wind is blowing from the south instead. The raven isn't agitated anymore either.

So, these are our detective clues give by George that Ghost and the raven smelled the Others nearness on the initial northern wind, but after the wind turned and the Others were downwind, Ghost and the raven calm down. And George already hinted at this "smell the Others" in the prior chapter. Borroq' boar is never aggressive to Ghost when meeting, but slightly later commences to take an aggressive posture right after snuffling his environment and snow has been falling. Borroq then warns Jon (with an ugly smile) that they're coming, meanng the Others, and to shut the gate well and good. Borroq is the last of Tormund's rearguard, who remained as last of the wildlings to cross in case the Others attacked the sick, weak in the camp. Borroq is the last, because as a skinchanger he is the first to be aware if his animal smells the Others.

Bowen's tears are a normal reflex to extreme cold. When it's extremely cold our eyes get dehydrated, and tear ducts automatically start to water to fix this. Bran has tears flowing right before the snow buried wights attack him before BR's cave. Chett has tears too the night of the attack of the Fist of the First Men.

@LongRider

There is one other mention of a smoking wound: when the Other stabs Small Paul, and pulls himself over the Others' sword to reach the Other, but then falls away (taking the Others' sword away).

Quote

The wights had been slow clumsy things, but the Other was light as snow on the wind. It slid away from Paul’s axe, armor rippling, and its crystal sword twisted and spun and slipped between the iron rings of Paul’s mail, through leather and wool and bone and flesh. It came out his back with a hissssssssssss and Sam heard Paul say, “Oh,” as he lost the axe. Impaled, his blood smoking around the sword, the big man tried to reach his killer with his hands and almost had before he fell. (aSoS, Samwell I)

But aside from the Others' cold presence/nearness, something is going on with Jon himself: something is happening to him that makes Wyck wave his hands in alarm (wasn't me - response), right after the blood welled from his neck is a hint to it. And then Bowen Marsh's dagger for the stomach is weird too, beyond the smoking wound. Jon is said to "wrench" the dagger free. The abdomen is soft tissue. Normally, there's no need to "wrench" it. Wrenching is something you do if it's stuck in a hard surface, like wood or ice.

[LongRider]

21 hours ago, divica said:

This is something that almost everyone forgets. If people want to use the prologue to predict what will happen to jon then they should remember that in order for him to get back to his body grrm would need to create new magic that would push jon's spirit out of ghost and back into his own body. 

About the idea that Jon's spirit can go back to a reanimated body, doubtful this would happen.  Why?  The body is reanimated, however, it's still dead and can a 2nd life spirit inhabit a dead body?  Not convinced this is the case, and as mentioned above, GRRM would have to create a new magic.  Also, we don't know if Mel can reanimate a dead body.  Let's not forget, the first time Beric was reanimated, Thoros was giving him funeral rites and Beric coming back was totally unexpected.  So far, there is no indication that Mel can do the same. 

Quote from the wiki 'According to George R. R. Martin, Beric is no longer a living being after his first death; his heart does not beat and blood does not flow through his veins. In Martin's own words, Beric is "a wight animated by fire instead of by ice".[33]

Having Mel bring Jon back from the dead would be to create a wight, is that what's really wanted?

[LongRider]

6 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

There is one other mention of a smoking wound: when the Other stabs Small Paul, and pulls himself over the Others' sword to reach the Other, but then falls away (taking the Others' sword away

Thanks for this SSR!  One just has to ask the Search program the right question.  Can get tricky.   Cheers!  

Also, Small Paul's wound smoked when stabbed by an Other's sword, Bowen isn't an Other, just a dork.  Curious.  

[divica]

26 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

Bowen's tears are a normal reflex to extreme cold. When it's extremely cold our eyes get dehydrated, and tear ducts automatically start to water to fix this. Bran has tears flowing right before the snow buried wights attack him before BR's cave. Chett has tears too the night of the attack of the Fist of the First Men.

 

I can support the first part of your post about ghost sensing the other and being agressive because of that. But this part I don't agree. Bowen's tears are clearly an emotional response. It doesn't make sense to have him cry while stabing jon if it is just a consequence of the extreme cold. grrm could have him crying in any other situation...

34 minutes ago, sweetsunray said:

But aside from the Others' cold presence/nearness, something is going on with Jon himself: something is happening to him that makes Wyck wave his hands in alarm (wasn't me - response), right after the blood welled from his neck is a hint to it. And then Bowen Marsh's dagger for the stomach is weird too, beyond the smoking wound. Jon is said to "wrench" the dagger free. The abdomen is soft tissue. Normally, there's no need to "wrench" it. Wrenching is something you do if it's stuck in a hard surface, like wood or ice.

the dagger can be stuck due to jon wearing leather or chainmail. I think to conclude something more is going on you have to add all that is happening. Jon's grip problems, despite being ready for an attack he doesn't see bowen, he is unconscious after only 2 stab wounds that might not be that serious but was able to ride a direwolf for hours despite being injured by several arrows, references to smoking wounds but not blood...

However I would say that wick's response and bowen's tears are indicators that something weird is also happening to the guys attacking him. It looks like they are being forced to do it against their will...

[sweetsunray]

9 minutes ago, divica said:

Bowen's tears are clearly an emotional response. It doesn't make sense to have him cry while stabing jon if it is just a consequence of the extreme cold. grrm could have him crying in any other situation...

It's the extreme cold of the Others that causes the eyes to tear. That this is an emotional response is an assumption, though I admit George wants you to assume this. There's no other situation before for Bowen's eyes to water than this one, because the Others are present and becoming active the moment that Jon's neck is grazed.

[divica]

37 minutes ago, LongRider said:

About the idea that Jon's spirit can go back to a reanimated body, doubtful this would happen.  Why?  The body is reanimated, however, it's still dead and can a 2nd life spirit inhabit a dead body?  Not convinced this is the case, and as mentioned above, GRRM would have to create a new magic.  Also, we don't know if Mel can reanimate a dead body.  Let's not forget, the first time Beric was reanimated, Thoros was giving him funeral rites and Beric coming back was totally unexpected.  So far, there is no indication that Mel can do the same. 

Quote from the wiki 'According to George R. R. Martin, Beric is no longer a living being after his first death; his heart does not beat and blood does not flow through his veins. In Martin's own words, Beric is "a wight animated by fire instead of by ice".[33]

Having Mel bring Jon back from the dead would be to create a wight, is that what's really wanted?

I could see the advantage of having fire wights or whatever coldhands is. It is the only realistic way we can have a character go to the heart of winter or be imune to the ww cold. If jon's fate is to be something akin to the last hero it could make sense that grrm wants to use this oportunity to make him something that can survive the extreme cold.

My problem with this narrative is that jon hasn't explored his skinchanging abilities or whatever happens when he gets mad that seems to make him stronger and now he would have more magical abilities? And jon's whole arc is about the living vs the dead and now he becomes one of the dead reanimated by a god he doesn't believe?

I don't know if it would make sense. And if mel has the power to reanimate the dead why shouldn't she use it on several more people from now on? 

[LongRider]

4 minutes ago, divica said:

My problem with this narrative is that jon hasn't explored his skinchanging abilities or whatever happens when he gets mad that seems to make him stronger and now he would have more magical abilities? And jon's whole arc is about the living vs the dead and now he becomes one of the dead reanimated by a god he doesn't believe?

I don't know if it would make sense.

I read Varamyr's chapter more as an info dump about wargs then as an outline about what will happen to Jon Snow.  As you say, Jon has not come into his skinchanging and warging abilities because he has been suppressing them.  Varamyr and Borroc have both noticed it and when Tormund first met Jon he mentioned to Jon that he liked wargs, so Jon's abilities are there for those who can see them.  Interestingly, Mel does not realize that Jon has these powers.  

Bran mentioned to Bloodraven after his first skinchanging and flying of a raven that there was someone else in the bird and BR told him that was right and skinchangers and warg spirits go into their familiars upon their deaths.  The ADWD prolouge brings us up to speed on this.  Does this forshadow Jon going into Ghost, then back into his dead body?  Realy doubt it. 

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, Mithras said:

Agreed. There are a lot of characters that survived far worse than Jon's condition. Mance and the shadowcat for example. Or Aegon II. Or Sandor. Even Bran should not have survived if not for his direwolf.

Yes!  I made a short list a few weeks ago, will add Aegon II to it, and it's just a partial list, as there may be more I haven't found or forgotten.  

Mance was badly injured by a shadowcat and his life despaired of. He was saved by a Woods Witch and the rest is history. This might serve as a precedent

There is more precedent than just Mance for Jon being alive rather than dead:

Bran badly injured from a fall, saved with the help of direwolves and the The Eyed-Crow. (magic)

Dany, burned on Drogo's funeral pyre, lived through it by magic.  What sort of magic?  I'm not sure.

Tyrion, very badly injured during battle of Blackwater.  Nursed back to health.

Davos, should have drowned during battle of Blackwater, didn't.

Sandor, could be dead, or could be nursed back to health by the Elder Brother. 

[Curled Finger]

To Bowen & Mutineers' tears...it could be they are remorseful for their actions.  It cannot be an easy thing to kill your LC even when you feel it is the right thing to do.  These men don't strike me as natural killers, just misguided bureaucrats and workmen.  The entire final scenes are fraught with emotion running high and it is cold as all get out, no reason it couldn't be a mixture of wicked cold and emotion.