Jon’s only failure as Lord Commander

[sifth]

21 hours ago, James West said:

 It was meant as a joke.  Right?  Jon was a terrible lord commander.  Mild-mannered, reasonable Bowen Marsh was pushed to the limits by Jon's incompetence.  

Your turn to pretend Jon Snow is the worst human to ever live. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by sifth

[Fist of the Dragon]

Please correct me if I am wrong

AGoT Jon III

''Castle Black is not a true castle, as it has no walls to defend it to the west, east, or south. Only the Wall stands to the north. It consists of several stone towers and timber keeps''

I see that some of you are saying that Jon should stay in Castle Black and face Ramsay's army there,but considering the above paragraph and that most of the Nigth's Watch castles from the south are indefensible or destroyed,why does Jon have to stay at the wall and face Boltons there when evereyone ramsay wants is there (well exept Reek and Arya)

I don't think Jon decided after two hours of taiking with Tormund to suddenly march in to the heart of enemy with three thousand wildings.He probably had something on his mind and we will finally find out.

[kissdbyfire]

On 5/3/2023 at 3:54 PM, Fist of the Dragon said:

Please correct me if I am wrong

AGoT Jon III

''Castle Black is not a true castle, as it has no walls to defend it to the west, east, or south. Only the Wall stands to the north. It consists of several stone towers and timber keeps''

I see that some of you are saying that Jon should stay in Castle Black and face Ramsay's army there,but considering the above paragraph and that most of the Nigth's Watch castles from the south are indefensible or destroyed,why does Jon have to stay at the wall and face Boltons there when evereyone ramsay wants is there (well exept Reek and Arya)

I don't think Jon decided after two hours of taiking with Tormund to suddenly march in to the heart of enemy with three thousand wildings.He probably had something on his mind and we will finally find out.

Welcome to the forums.

You are not wrong. In fact, as far as I’m concerned, you’re spot on. 

[LongRider]

On 5/3/2023 at 11:54 AM, Fist of the Dragon said:

I don't think Jon decided after two hours of taiking with Tormund to suddenly march in to the heart of enemy with three thousand wildings.

We don't know how many wildings would go with Jon.  Three thousand is how many crossed the Wall, many have been sent to other castles and not all of them would agree to go with him. 

[kissdbyfire]

32 minutes ago, LongRider said:

We don't know how many wildings would go with Jon.  Three thousand is how many crossed the Wall, many have been sent to other castles and not all of them would agree to go with him. 

I also agree that there’s stuff from the convo between Jon and Tormund that will make a lot of things clearer. I don’t think Martin hid that chat from the readers for shits and giggles. 

[Fist of the Dragon]

On 5/23/2023 at 11:22 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Welcome to the forums

Thank you. I'm not very good at English, but I'll try my best

 

On 5/23/2023 at 11:45 PM, LongRider said:

We don't know how many wildings would go with Jon.  Three thousand is how many crossed the Wall, many have been sent to other castles and not all of them would agree to go with him.

You are right. However, I think you get my point.

[csuszka1948]

On 5/3/2023 at 7:54 PM, Fist of the Dragon said:

Please correct me if I am wrong

AGoT Jon III

''Castle Black is not a true castle, as it has no walls to defend it to the west, east, or south. Only the Wall stands to the north. It consists of several stone towers and timber keeps''

I see that some of you are saying that Jon should stay in Castle Black and face Ramsay's army there,but considering the above paragraph and that most of the Nigth's Watch castles from the south are indefensible or destroyed,why does Jon have to stay at the wall and face Boltons there when evereyone ramsay wants is there (well exept Reek and Arya)

I don't think Jon decided after two hours of taiking with Tormund to suddenly march in to the heart of enemy with three thousand wildings.He probably had something on his mind and we will finally find out.

 

 

 

 

 

Ramsay's army? Who would follow that madman in attacking the Watch? I don't think most of the Northerners would be willing to do it. Ramsay is not even the official head of House Bolton.

Is everyone Ramsay wants here? No, Ramsay will take WEEKS, probably more than a month to arrive, and Jon can send away the people Ramsay wants. That's also plenty of time to prepare defenses and the Black Brothers would help him.

How is it better to meet him in an unknown battlefield? Sorry, I don't really see it. The whole thing was based on trusting Mel's visions ('if she could spot a letter, she can spot an army) and the desire to save Arya before Ramsay catches her.

The best explanation for Jon's plan is that he wanted to ally with the Weeper. He has tens of thousands of wildlings and with them he might be able to genuinely take WF.

Edited May 28, 2023 by csuszka1948

[LongRider]

1 hour ago, csuszka1948 said:

The best explanation for Jon's plan is that he wanted to ally with the Weeper. He has tens of thousands of wildlings and with them he might be able to genuinely take WF.

Where in the text is there info about this?  Tens of thousands?  I've looked but can't find any.      (pops some yummy popcorn)

[kissdbyfire]

22 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Where in the text is there info about this?  Tens of thousands?  I've looked but can't find any.      (pops some yummy popcorn)

Exactly this. Also, last we heard of him, the Weeper was north of the Wall, no? 
(pass me some of that delicious looking popcorn, please)

[LongRider]

1 minute ago, kissdbyfire said:

Exactly this. Also, last we heard of him, the Weeper was north of the Wall, no? 
(pass me some of that delicious looking popcorn, please)

Not only is the Weeper north of the Wall, could the land beyond the Wall support tens of thousands?   

Here is a big bowl of popcorn for you.  The salt is on the table if you want it.  I don't use butter, too greasy, so it's vegen popcorn too.   

[kissdbyfire]

5 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Not only is the Weeper north of the Wall, could the land beyond the Wall support tens of thousands?   
 

Yup, he has a small-ish group w/ him but I’ll be shocked if they number more than 100, and I think I’m being generous here.

5 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Here is a big bowl of popcorn for you.  The salt is on the table if you want it.  I don't use butter, too greasy, so it's vegen popcorn too.   

Cheers, and yay!

 

[Fist of the Dragon]

3 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Ramsay's army? Who would follow that madman in attacking the Watch? I don't think most of the Northerners would be willing to do it. Ramsay is not even the official head of House Bolton.

Arya means Winterfell for Ramsey. Without him, how can he claim the lordship of Winterfell among the northerners? And for this, he will not need most of the northerners, he will definitely have his soldiers.

 

3 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Is everyone Ramsay wants here?

When did I say all the people he wants are in Castle Black? How does Ramsay know this? Like any other sane person, he comes to the conclusion that Arya, who ran away with Reek, will go to Jon.

 

3 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

How is it better to meet him in an unknown battlefield?

What do you mean by unknown battlefield? Doesn't Jon know the north well?

 

4 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

No, Ramsay will take WEEKS, probably more than a month to arrive, and Jon can send away the people Ramsay wants. That's also plenty of time to prepare defenses and the Black Brothers would help him.

Even if, based on your arguments, we think that Ramsay just made an empty threat and no one will follow him (and even if he does it will take weeks to get through the blizzard) then Jon is a complete idiot with this decision. But Martin never does that to him and uses his intelligence and talent instead, but he is probably rawer and has weaknesses that make him killable.
When Jon reads the pink letter, he has no reason to believe that Stannis is dead. Anyway, he knows enough about Ramsay and his sinister reputation is such that Jon immediately decides to do anything. So I don't know why he should hand over those who Ramsay wants to buy time.

4 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

The best explanation for Jon's plan is that he wanted to ally with the Weeper. He has tens of thousands of wildlings and with them he might be able to genuinely take WF.

Weeper? tens of thousands of wildlings?How did you reach this conclusion?

[kissdbyfire]

52 minutes ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

Arya means Winterfell for Ramsey. Without him, how can he claim the lordship of Winterfell among the northerners? And for this, he will not need most of the northerners, he will definitely have his soldiers.

Agree. 

52 minutes ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

When did I say all the people he wants are in Castle Black? How does Ramsay know this? Like any other sane person, he comes to the conclusion that Arya, who ran away with Reek, will go to Jon.

Apart from calling Ramsay “sane”, I agree w/ everything. It’s worth remembering also that, while many of the lords at Winterfell for the wedding may know Jeyne is not Arya, they are in a difficult position and more or less have to swallow the lies and pretend to believe it. That’s not the case w/ Jon. So, it would make sense even for Jeyne to try to reach CB - Jon has known her all her life and would be a good choice of someone who might want to help her - *but* if she does get there, the consequences for Ramsay are terrible since Jon will know she’s not Arya and he won’t keep it a secret. 

52 minutes ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

What do you mean by unknown battlefield? Doesn't Jon know the north well?

Exactly. 

52 minutes ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

Even if, based on your arguments, we think that Ramsay just made an empty threat and no one will follow him (and even if he does it will take weeks to get through the blizzard) then Jon is a complete idiot with this decision. But Martin never does that to him and uses his intelligence and talent instead, but he is probably rawer and has weaknesses that make him killable.
When Jon reads the pink letter, he has no reason to believe that Stannis is dead. Anyway, he knows enough about Ramsay and his sinister reputation is such that Jon immediately decides to do anything. So I don't know why he should hand over those who Ramsay wants to buy time.

The thing w/ the time it would take Ramsay to get to CB - and that would be upwards of 3 weeks, and probably a lot more than that - it would take Jon just as long to reach Winterfell! 
And while Ramsay is a stupid brute who often acts impulsively, Jon is a good strategist - remember his advice to Stannis?. So it is likely that Jon would have factored in the travel time for both himself and Ramsay, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he thought there would be a more than good chance of the two of them meeting somewhere along the way. I won’t be shocked if he had a few spots picked out for a possible meet up. 

52 minutes ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

Weeper? tens of thousands of wildlings?How did you reach this conclusion?

I know, I have no idea where these thousands of free folk idea came from.

[LongRider]

45 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

So, it would make sense even for Jeyne to try to reach CB - Jon has known her all her life and would be a good choice of someone who might want to help her - *but* if she does get there, the consequences for Ramsay are terrible since Jon will know she’s not Arya and he won’t keep it a secret. 

Wait till he sees the whip marks on Jenye's back and she tells Jon of Littlefinger's brutality.  I don't expect Jon to do anything about that, but the discovery of them and why they are there, could definitely get out. 

45 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Jon is a good strategist - remember his advice to Stannis?. So it is likely that Jon would have factored in the travel time for both himself and Ramsay, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he thought there would be a more than good chance of the two of them meeting somewhere along the way.

Unknown battlefields perhaps? Jeyne reaching CB could have terrible results for Ramsay (yay!) and perhaps contributes to the downfall of Littlefinger. (another yay!) 

[Fist of the Dragon]

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

Apart from calling Ramsay “sane”

I agree that Ramsay is a full-fledged sadist, but he is not stupid and shows cunning at the right time.
But yes, the word ''sane'' is a little too much for him who enjoys torturing others.

[kissdbyfire]

4 minutes ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

I agree that Ramsay is a full-fledged sadist, but he is not stupid and shows cunning at the right time.
But yes, the word ''sane'' is a little too much for him who enjoys torturing others.

Here we disagree a bit, because I think he is indeed quite stupid. He has a low cunning, but that’s as far as I’m willing to go irt Ramsay’s intellect. 

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, LongRider said:

Wait till he sees the whip marks on Jenye's back and she tells Jon of Littlefinger's brutality.  I don't expect Jon to do anything about that, but the discovery of them and why they are there, could definitely get out. 
 

I’m not sure he wouldn’t, actually. I think Jon, clearly and unapologetically, chose love (honour) over duty in this scene: 

“It was signed,

  
    Ramsay Bolton,
    Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.
    “
”Snow?” said Tormund Giantsbane. “You look like your father’s bloody head just rolled out o’ that paper.”

<snip>

“I won’t say you’re wrong. What do you mean to do, crow?”

  Jon flexed the fingers of his sword hand. The Night’s Watch takes no part. He closed his fist and opened it again. What you propose is nothing less than treason. He thought of Robb, with snowflakes melting in his hair. Kill the boy and let the man be born. He thought of Bran, clambering up a tower wall, agile as a monkey. Of Rickon’s breathless laughter. Of Sansa, brushing out Lady’s coat and singing to herself. You know nothing, Jon Snow. He thought of Arya, her hair as tangled as a bird’s nest. I made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell … I want my bride back … I want my bride back … I want my bride back …

  “I think we had best change the plan,” Jon Snow said.”

He once made the choice of staying put and not going south to join Robb. He did his duty. 
I really love how Martin wrote this passage. Because it’s Tormund’s comment about Ned’s chopped head rolling out of the letter that triggers Jon’s subsequent thoughts. The last paragraph quoted is basically duty - what he’s been told all his life, the Watch takes no part, this is treason, yadda yadda yadda - versus love, and then he decides to change the plan. And while we don’t know what the whole plan is yet, we do know he chose love and he was right. 
And I know many, many readers believe it was the wrong decision because “duty above all else”, and look at maester Aemon, he TOLD JON that he was once in a similar position and he chose duty bla bla bla. And since Aemon is ancient and likeable and wise, he must be right? Right? Nope. 
But back to what Jon would or wouldn’t do, I think the real question is what would he be able to do? I suppose a lot would depend on the timing… but even if he can’t do anything immediately, I’m pretty sure he won’t forget it. 

1 hour ago, LongRider said:

Unknown battlefields perhaps?

I don’t know, I was thinking more along the lines of strategic spots where he’d have a tactical advantage? 

1 hour ago, LongRider said:

Jeyne reaching CB could have terrible results for Ramsay (yay!) and perhaps contributes to the downfall of Littlefinger. (another yay!) 

Double yay indeed! I think I’m looking forward to Littlefinger’s excruciatingly painful demise even more than Ramsay’s! 

[csuszka1948]

3 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

Arya means Winterfell for Ramsey. Without him, how can he claim the lordship of Winterfell among the northerners? And for this, he will not need most of the northerners, he will definitely have his soldiers.

 

Roose Bolton is the Warden of the North, not Ramsay. 

The Dreadfort itself doesn't have more soldiers than Jon at Castle Black.

3 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

 

When did I say all the people he wants are in Castle Black? How does Ramsay know this? Like any other sane person, he comes to the conclusion that Arya, who ran away with Reek, will go to Jon.

 

Yes, he will go to Jon. Jon knows the place of the battlefield and he can prepare adequately, and everyone would help defending the Wall from such a madmen.

3 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

 

Even if, based on your arguments, we think that Ramsay just made an empty threat and no one will follow him (and even if he does it will take weeks to get through the blizzard) then Jon is a complete idiot with this decision. But Martin never does that to him and uses his intelligence and talent instead, but he is probably rawer and has weaknesses that make him killable.
When Jon reads the pink letter, he has no reason to believe that Stannis is dead. Anyway, he knows enough about Ramsay and his sinister reputation is such that Jon immediately decides to do anything. So I don't know why he should hand over those who Ramsay wants to buy time.

 

No, every character makes bad decisions guided by their emotions, Jon is no exception. He realized that Ramsay is a monster, and wanted to kill him before he could potentially recapture his sister, because Arya wasn't with him, Arya was on the run. 

I am not saying that the plan he and Tormund made was awful, but I don't think the idea of marching out of Castle Black was wise and he completely failed to realize how announcing that "I am marching to Winterfell while you go to another 'Great Ranging' to Hardhome" looks in the eyes of the Black Brothers. 

3 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

Weeper? tens of thousands of wildlings?How did you reach this conclusion?

 

Because Mance thinks that the majority of his warriors (originally composed of 30 thousand wildlings) is with the Weeper, and even Tormund managed to gather 3-4 thousand fighting men, so the Weeper probably has 10 thousand or more. These fighters would be very helpful.

In his 11th chapter, Jon says that he needs men like the Weeper.

Besides, Mel thinks that the Weeper doesn't matter, which makes it very likely that he does. :-)

I admit that this excellent post about Jon's potential plotline in TWOW also influenced me: 

 

 

[csuszka1948]

21 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I’m not sure he wouldn’t, actually. I think Jon, clearly and unapologetically, chose love (honour) over duty in this scene: 

He once made the choice of staying put and not going south to join Robb. He did his duty. 
I really love how Martin wrote this passage. Because it’s Tormund’s comment about Ned’s chopped head rolling out of the letter that triggers Jon’s subsequent thoughts. The last paragraph quoted is basically duty - what he’s been told all his life, the Watch takes no part, this is treason, yadda yadda yadda - versus love, and then he decides to change the plan. And while we don’t know what the whole plan is yet, we do know he chose love and he was right. 
And I know many, many readers believe it was the wrong decision because “duty above all else”, and look at maester Aemon, he TOLD JON that he was once in a similar position and he chose duty bla bla bla. And since Aemon is ancient and likeable and wise, he must be right? Right? Nope. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I disagree. The point is not duty above all things, but doing the right thing over doing the easy thing.

Sticking to your vows and doing your 'duty' is not always a good thing - what matters is doing the right thing, Jaime's kingslaying or Dany 'betraying' the Astapori are perfect examples. Stannis's storyline - culminating in the burning of his daughter - is probably a warning about the danger of doing 'your duty' above all else.

However, Jon is the Commander of the NW and in this position his actions reflect on the rest of the NW. Doing the right thing to them - and the realm, in general - is more important than doing the right thing to his sister out of love, and staying in Castle Black and preparing for a possible attack absolutely seems to be the right course of action to me. 

Edited May 28, 2023 by csuszka1948

[kissdbyfire]

25 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

Roose Bolton is the Warden of the North, not Ramsay. 

The Dreadfort itself doesn't have more soldiers than Jon at Castle Black.

4 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

Where did @Fist of the Dragon say Ramsay was Warden of the North? He didn’t, he said Ramsay is lord of Winterfell, which he is b/c of his marriage to fArya.