Jon’s only failure as Lord Commander

[LongRider]

18 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

I am not saying that the plan he and Tormund made was awful, but I don't think the idea of marching out of Castle Black was wise and he completely failed to realize how announcing that "I am marching to Winterfell while you go to another 'Great Ranging' to Hardhome" looks in the eyes of the Black Brothers.

Jon only discussed the bare bones of his plan in the Sheildhall, and Saint Bown Marsh over-reacted with the Attack of the Stewards^TM  which was obviously a completely logical and rational response.       There was no mention of the Weeper during the Shieldhall meeting so assuming he would be tapped by Jon to go after Ramsy and then agree to bring his thousands and thousands of men south of the Wall with him is quite remarkable.    

Saint Bowen did not allow for Jon to have a chance to explain his plan to the Black Brothers, better just to, oh I don't know, keep to his vows by murdering his Lord Commander!  Who broke vows?  

[kissdbyfire]

8 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Jon only discussed the bare bones of his plan in the Sheildhall, and Saint Bown Marsh over-reacted with the Attack of the Stewards^TM  which was obviously a completely logical and rational response.       There was no mention of the Weeper during the Shieldhall meeting so assuming he would be tapped by Jon to go after Ramsy and then agree to bring his thousands and thousands of men south of the Wall with him is quite remarkable.    

Saint Bowen did not allow for Jon to have a chance to explain his plan to the Black Brothers, better just to, oh I don't know, keep to his vows by murdering his Lord Commander!  Who broke vows?  

This idea w/ the Weeper makes zero sense to me. Didn’t he have some 300 men w/ him when he attacked the BoS? And yeah, Mance may have thought most would flock to him, but Mance was wrong imo. I’m feeling too lazy to look into the numbers now, but I find it hard to believe he’d have thousands of men. And I think he’s more likely to attack the BoS again then join forces w/ Jon in any way, shape or form. Heck, they may even end up fighting each other if the Weeper comes south by force. 

[LongRider]

29 minutes ago, csuszka1948 said:

However, Jon is the Commander of the NW and in this position his actions reflect on the rest of the NW.  As do others, including officers like Marsh.   Doing the right thing to them - and the realm, in general like sticking a knife in your LC's belly is doing the right thing and reflects well on the Watch- is more important than doing the right thing to his sister out of love, and staying in Castle Black Jon has decided that Ramsy was a threat not just to Arya, but to Queen Selyse, Mel, Val and others.  Jon does not know the true situation of WF, weather and Stannis ect., and he asked for help from the wildings to spare his Brothers from trouble.  He knows what and who Ramsay is, and Ramsay made a threat that he found credible one that he felt it needed his respone.  So be it, the vows are constantly being broken by the NW, see St. Bowen Marsh and his conspiracy and attempted murder of his LC.  and preparing for a possible attack absolutely seems to be the right course of action to me. 

Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until my death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night's Watch, for this night and all the nights to come.

[LongRider]

11 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

This idea w/ the Weeper makes zero sense to me. Didn’t he have some 300 men w/ him when he attacked the BoS?

Yes, but the Weeper going with Jon and bring his men with him, whatever the number, is ott and doesn't follow the storyline, at all. 

[kissdbyfire]

3 minutes ago, LongRider said:

Yes, but the Weeper going with Jon and bring his men with him, whatever the number, is ott and doesn't follow the storyline, at all. 

Yeah, that too. 

[Darth Sidious]

On 5/1/2023 at 12:21 AM, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

Was not seeing and acting on the clear bigotry at work against the Wildings. Ordinarily, it’d be acceptable given the Nights Watch and Wilding’s history. But we aren’t in ordinary circumstances. The true reason the Watch exists is coming, and Jon’s decision to allow the Wildlings through was absolutely the right call.

 

Marsh & CO’s inability to see or care care about the true threat of Others lead them to doom the Watch, and hurt the realm immeasurably. Their ignorance will lead to the Walls downfall. Jon should identified the bad actors amounts this people, and taken care of them.

 

His decision to march on the Boltons was a hard one, but clearly the right call. As far as the Watch knows, the Pink Letter was legitimately from the psychopath. The Watch couldn’t possibly face the Others, even with the Wildings, with such a threat from the Boltons. And Ramsay is clearly the type to follow through on such grandiose and psychotic threats. The man is a rabid dog capable of the nothing but low cunning and cruelty. If the Boltons did slaughter the Watch, not stopping such a thing would violate the Watch’s oath.

 

Jon is clearly the greatest leader humanity has against the Others. Once Jon joins up with the greatest weapons of humanity. And their Mistress, humanity will stand a chance against the Others.

Jon’s decision to march on the Boltons is clearly wrong. He was the lord commander of an organization who has to stay neutral. It’s not his job to help Arya. 

[Nevets]

With respect to Jeyne Poole, I doubt she will meet Jon.  He will probably be out of commission (comatose or dead) when she arrives.  She won't want to stick around to be exposed, and with Ramsay apparently on the warpath, her escort and probably the NW won't want her around either.  She, along with Massey and the banker, and possibly Alysanne Mormont, will probably be sent on to Eastwatch, then Braavos.

Ramsay is probably planning to deal with Jon's recognition of Jeyne one of two ways.  Either intimidate Jon into staying quiet (news travels slowly, especially up North), or brand him as a liar.  He would claim Jon is lying because he hates the Lannisters and doesn't want his sister marrying their representative.  Jon has clear motive to lie; I suspect even the Northerners might think he's lying, but would use it anyway.  Of course, it's probably moot, as Jon and Jeyne are unlikely to meet.

As far as Bowen Marsh knows, Jon is going to march on Winterfell with an army of wildlings.   This is a very bad idea, and could cut off the Nights Watch from both the North and the Crown.  If I were in the Nights Watch I would be very uneasy as well.  Stabbing Jon may be overkill, but hardly a surprise, or necessarily unreasonable, given what Jon has just said.

[Fist of the Dragon]

11 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Roose Bolton is the Warden of the North, not Ramsay. 

The Dreadfort itself doesn't have more soldiers than Jon at Castle Black.

I did not say that Ramsay is the Warden of the North and that he has no military power to take back FArya is unbelievable. (Roose himself may give him soldiers directly)
In addition, the Boltons have nearly 4,000 soldiers, while we have no idea how many wildlings are fighting for Jon.

 

11 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

No, every character makes bad decisions guided by their emotions, Jon is no exception. He realized that Ramsay is a monster, and wanted to kill him before he could potentially recapture his sister, because Arya wasn't with him, Arya was on the run. 

Yes, emotions definitely decide on him, but I wonder if this is his first time?
Did he not get the news of Ned Stark's imprisonment and then death? Did he forget his brother's death at the Red Wedding? Didn't they tell him that Winterfell was on fire and that Bran and Rickon were dead?
So this is not the first time he is in this situation. This time, we don't need to see a very emotional version of Jon Snow who easily makes a wrong decision based on his emotions.

 

11 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Because Mance thinks that the majority of his warriors (originally composed of 30 thousand wildlings) is with the Weeper, and even Tormund managed to gather 3-4 thousand fighting men, so the Weeper probably has 10 thousand or more. These fighters would be very helpful.

In his 11th chapter, Jon says that he needs men like the Weeper.

Do you remember Garth Greyfeather, Black Jack Bulwer, and Hairy Hal? Weeper has them killed, their heads removed, and their eyes plucked out, then leaves their heads on spears near the Wall for the men of the Night's Watch to find.

I can't accept that he would suddenly ally himself with Jon at this point in time with such animosity towards the Night's Watch.

And that Mance lost many of the wildling warriors he had brought with him to the wall (in battle with the Night's Watch or Stannis). So I don't think he had ten thousand or more.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Fist of the Dragon

[csuszka1948]

2 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

I did not say that Ramsay is the Warden of the North and that he has no military power to take back FArya is unbelievable. (Roose himself may give him soldiers directly)
In addition, the Boltons have nearly 4,000 soldiers, while we have no idea how many wildlings are fighting for Jon.

 

Well, they have 3-4 thousand fighting men with Tormund and can prepare defenses.

2 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

 

Yes, emotions definitely decide on him, but I wonder if this is his first time?
Did he not get the news of Ned Stark's imprisonment and then death? Did he forget his brother's death at the Red Wedding? Didn't they tell him that Winterfell was on fire and that Bran and Rickon were dead?
So this is not the first time he is in this situation. This time, we don't need to see a very emotional version of Jon Snow who easily makes a wrong decision based on his emotions.

 

I disagree. The fact that characters develop doesn't mean that they don't make wrong (or risky) decisions based on their emotions, just that the plans they develop will be probably better (Jon's plan to attack Ramsay was definitely better than running away to join Robb). It would be a boring story if the protagonists didn't make any mistakes.

2 hours ago, Fist of the Dragon said:

 

Do you remember Garth Greyfeather, Black Jack Bulwer, and Hairy Hal? Weeper has them killed, their heads removed, and their eyes plucked out, then leaves their heads on spears near the Wall for the men of the Night's Watch to find.

I can't accept that he would suddenly ally himself with Jon at this point in time with such animosity towards the Night's Watch.

And that Mance lost many of the wildling warriors he had brought with him to the wall (in battle with the Night's Watch or Stannis). So I don't think he had ten thousand or more.

 

Yes, he killed NW members, and then what? Jon directly said in his 11th chapter than he needs men like the Weeper. This means that he is open to an alliance with him.

Mance thought that most of his remaining warriors flocked to him, so if even Tormund had 4 thousand of them, the Weeper probably has twice as many or even more.

[csuszka1948]

12 hours ago, LongRider said:

Night gathers, and now my watch begins. It shall not end until my death. I shall take no wife, hold no lands, father no children. I shall wear no crowns and win no glory. I shall live and die at my post. I am the sword in the darkness. I am the watcher on the walls. I am the fire that burns against the cold, the light that brings the dawn, the horn that wakes the sleepers, the shield that guards the realms of men. I pledge my life and honor to the Night's Watch, for this night and all the nights to come.

 

 

 

I am sorry, but from Jon's POV it's clear that Jon ONLY cared about the threat to Arya, not about the threats to others or his duty to the realm. That's why he has changed plans. Also, Selyse and the rest of them have a month or even more to leave Castle Black. 

He also didn't spare his brothers from trouble, he sent them to Hardhome on what they consider a suicide mission while he announced that he rides to Winterfell. He didn't consider at all how this looks from the outside (=he is willing to sacrifice his Black Brothers on another Great Ranging to save wildlings they cannot feed, while he leads a wildling army to become King of the North).

Edited May 29, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

12 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

This idea w/ the Weeper makes zero sense to me. Didn’t he have some 300 men w/ him when he attacked the BoS? And yeah, Mance may have thought most would flock to him, but Mance was wrong imo. I’m feeling too lazy to look into the numbers now, but I find it hard to believe he’d have thousands of men. And I think he’s more likely to attack the BoS again then join forces w/ Jon in any way, shape or form. Heck, they may even end up fighting each other if the Weeper comes south by force. 

 

 

 

Why does it makes zero sense?

"You need not trust a man to use him." Else how could I make use of all of you? "We need the Weeper, and others like him. Who knows the wild better than a wildling? Who knows our foes better than a man who has fought them?" - Jon XI, ADWD

It is already established that Jon is willing to make some truce with the Weeper (allowing him to pass the Wall) against the Others. From this, making an alliance against a monster like Ramsay to save his sister is not a very big leap.

There is no indication that Mance is wrong, actually it seems that he is right:

*"Three thousand, I make them, by the fires." Bowen Marsh lived for counts and measures. "*More than twice that number at Hardhome with the woods witch, we are told. And Ser Denys writes of great camps in the mountains beyond the Shadow Tower …"

Jon did not deny it. "Tormund says the Weeper means to try the Bridge of Skulls again." - Jon XI, ADWD

Would the Weeper actually join Jon or make a truce with him? No, I don't think so, but Jon is an idealist and he believes he has to try.

Edited May 29, 2023 by csuszka1948

[csuszka1948]

13 hours ago, LongRider said:

Jon only discussed the bare bones of his plan in the Sheildhall, and Saint Bown Marsh over-reacted with the Attack of the Stewards^TM  which was obviously a completely logical and rational response.       There was no mention of the Weeper during the Shieldhall meeting so assuming he would be tapped by Jon to go after Ramsy and then agree to bring his thousands and thousands of men south of the Wall with him is quite remarkable.    

Saint Bowen did not allow for Jon to have a chance to explain his plan to the Black Brothers, better just to, oh I don't know, keep to his vows by murdering his Lord Commander!  Who broke vows?  

 

 

 

 

 

Jon pretty much openly broke vows:

1) By reading out the Pink Letter and not denying its contents regarding Mance Rayder

2) By proclaiming that despite the NW takes no part in wars, he will:

“The Night’s Watch takes no part in the wars of the Seven Kingdoms,” Jon reminded them when some semblance of quiet had returned. “It is not for us to oppose the Bastard of Bolton, to avenge Stannis Baratheon, to defend his widow and his daughter. This creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women has sworn to cut my heart out, and I mean to make him answer for those words … but I will not ask my brothers to forswear their vows. “The Night’s Watch will make for Hardhome. I ride to Winterfell alone, unless …” Jon paused. “… is there any man here who will come stand with me?”

Now, you can argue that Jon actually broke no vows because the neutrality is not part of the NW vow, but from the way Jon framed it, it's absolutely clear that he viewed it as breaking vows and do not want to force his brothers to do the same.

If Jon didn't want to be viewed as an oathbreaker, he should have argued how attacking Ramsay comes from the vows from the NW, but he didn't do that - he admitted that he attacks Ramsay because he is a monster.

 

Besides that, Jon used the last of his authority to send the rest of his brothers on what many considered a sucide mission to Hardhome to save further wildlings under the leadership of a wildling. This is not oathbreaking, but not expecting a reitaliation for that when LC Mormont was murdered for much less is absolute blindness politically.

 

Finally, I ask you to consider the deeper meaning and consequences of Jon's announced actions from NW POV. If Jon goes with a wildling army to Winterfell and somehow takes it, he will almost certainly become King of the North. Commander of NW leading an army of wildlings against Northerners and take Winterfell? This certainly looks like a cautionary tale, the kind of LC who uses the Watch to fuel his political ambitions and needs to be stopped.

If Jon fails and is killed by Ramsay, the Boltons and the Northerners have every right to reitaliate. The Commander of the NW lead an army against them and the NW didn't stop him from doing that, none of them stopped his oathbreaking.

 

Why would he mention the Weeper on the Shieldhall meeting? 

Look, you are insisting that Jon had a good secret plan he didn't share with them, and I provided an example of what such a plan could have been (yes, it's risky -  the Weeper is not likely to join imo - but if he does, it's a huge boon).

Edited May 29, 2023 by csuszka1948

[Fist of the Dragon]

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Well, they have 3-4 thousand fighting men with Tormund and can prepare defenses

Where is it said that each of the four thousand people that Tormund brought with him are warriors?
They may even have been sent to other castles of the Night's Watch or to Gift.

 

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

Yes, he killed NW members, and then what? Jon directly said in his 11th chapter than he needs men like the Weeper. This means that he is open to an alliance with him.

Mance thought that most of his remaining warriors flocked to him, so if even Tormund had 4 thousand of them, the Weeper probably has twice as many or even more.

Yes, he says that, but because Weeper is the leader of a significant number of Wildlings and knows the lands beyond the wall better than anyone else. His information is valuable to Jon.
I'm sorry, but I find this alliance between Jon and Weeper leading to Jon's march to Winterfell or even using these people to defend the wall too much.

And how does double four thousand become tens of thousands? Even so, why should all of them be able to fight?(Of the same twice as four thousand Wildlings)

2 hours ago, csuszka1948 said:

I disagree. The fact that characters develop doesn't mean that they don't make wrong (or risky) decisions based on their emotions, just that the plans they develop will be probably better (Jon's plan to attack Ramsay was definitely better than running away to join Robb). It would be a boring story if the protagonists didn't make any mistakes.

I am not saying that Jon did not make a mistake. I think you don't understand what I mean. I am examining the matter from Jon's point of view, that he had something on his mind and that everything is not as simple as it seems.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Fist of the Dragon

[James Arryn]

On 5/2/2023 at 9:08 PM, Hugorfonics said:

More like 50. Or 49 if you wish.

These has beens are veteran warriors, probably the toughest in Westeros, having just come out of a victory over thousands including giants and magicians

 

.

Queen Selyse descended upon Castle Black with her daughter and her daughter's fool, her serving girls and lady companions, and a retinue of knights, sworn swords, and men-at-arms fifty strong.

And the bigglyest! You don’t even know.
 

People were coming to me, so many people, tears in their eyes, saying ‘Ser, we have never seen such troops before. No one has. They were already the best of the best, but following you…ser, they are just so inspired nothing in the history of everything could stand against them. Why just now some of them came to me…tears in their eyes…and said ‘Little Ser, could you tell Big Ser how completely devoted we are to him and his innate greatness, and we will fight to the last man to make sure He is given all that was due him, all that was stolen by those conniving traitors. And it’s not just us, our families…just now, some of our wives and children came to me…tears in their eyes…and said ‘Man Who Knows Big Ser, can you please tell him how much we love him, how we are so willing to die for whatever he wants that a few have been overcome with love and patriotism and offed themselves prematurely. But they were thinking of Big Ser all the time, you tell him. They said to me, with tears in their eyes…

Edited May 29, 2023 by James Arryn

[James Arryn]

On 5/2/2023 at 4:29 PM, SeanF said:

Yeh, Bowen is a racist arsehole, a craven who would crawl up Ramsay's colon if he was commanded to.

Racism might not be as unattractive as we wish. Remember the NW are basically cops/soldiers. And, well, neither group has ever been at the forefront of pushing back against racism, historically. Much more likely to be pushing back a crowd of people protesting against racism. 
 

Actually, serious question, does racism even exist as a concept in ASoIaF? Like is the word ever used or applied or discussed? Not talking behaviour that is clearly racist from our perspective, like ‘smells Dornish’ et al, but is addressed as such, and as a moral wrong understood as such by society? I honestly can’t remember. 

[SeanF]

57 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Racism might not be as unattractive as we wish. Remember the NW are basically cops/soldiers. And, well, neither group has ever been at the forefront of pushing back against racism, historically. Much more likely to be pushing back a crowd of people protesting against racism. 
 

Actually, serious question, does racism even exist as a concept in ASoIaF? Like is the word ever used or applied or discussed? Not talking behaviour that is clearly racist from our perspective, like ‘smells Dornish’ et al, but is addressed as such, and as a moral wrong understood as such by society? I honestly can’t remember. 

The prejudice against the Free Folk, the Dornish, the genocide of the Children of the Forest, the attitudes of the Ironborn and Greenlanders to each other, all seem similar to racism, even if it’s not colour prejudice.  I expect that if Summer Islanders settled in large numbers in Kings Landing, they would face racial prejudice.  At the moment, they’re just seen as exotic.

Come to think of it, Lazy Leo is bluntly racist to Alleras/Sarella, describing “his” mother as a monkey.

 

[James Arryn]

3 minutes ago, SeanF said:

The prejudice against the Free Folk, the Dornish, the genocide of the Children of the Forest, the attitudes of the Ironborn and Greenlanders to each other, all seem similar to racism, even if it’s not colour prejudice.  I expect that if Summer Islanders settled in large numbers in Kings Landing, they would face racial prejudice.  At the moment, they’re just seen as exotic.

Come to think of it, Lazy Leo is bluntly racist to Alleras/Sarella, describing “his” mother as a monkey.

 

Right, I’m saying we see racist behaviour…but do we ever see it called racism, or even identified as something to be avoided? I’m just not sure how people in the books view racism, or even if they do, and therefore not sure it would be seen as a sign of anyone’s immorality as many are suggesting. 

[SeanF]

3 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Right, I’m saying we see racist behaviour…but do we ever see it called racism, or even identified as something to be avoided? I’m just not sure how people in the books view racism, or even if they do, and therefore not sure it would be seen as a sign of anyone’s immorality as many are suggesting. 

In the case of Lazy Leo, and Viserys’ remarks to Dany about the Dothraki, it does get called out.  But, that’s probably because it’s such blatant rudeness.

Bowen’s attitude towards the Free Folk is probably widely shared in the North.

[Hugorfonics]

34 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Right, I’m saying we see racist behaviour…but do we ever see it called racism, or even identified as something to be avoided? I’m just not sure how people in the books view racism, or even if they do, and therefore not sure it would be seen as a sign of anyone’s immorality as many are suggesting. 

Well just because everyone is a racist doesn't make it immoral, but I guess they wouldn't see it as such which is what I guess your saying? Although modern racists don't see them as wrong either.

We see Bran defend the "frog eaters" or a particular favorite passage of mine 

Quote

"Frogeaters don't smell like men," Frey insisted. "They have a boggy stink, like frogs and trees and scummy water. Moss grows under their arms in place of hair, and they can live with nothing to eat but mud and breathe swamp water."

Theon was about to tell him what he ought to do with his wet nurse's fable when Maester Luwin spoke up. "The histories say the crannogmen grew close to the children of the forest in the days when the greenseers tried to bring the hammer of the waters down upon the Neck. It may be that they have secret knowledge."

Suddenly the wood seemed a deal darker than it had a moment before, as if a cloud had passed before the sun. It was one thing to have some fool boy spouting folly, but maesters were supposed to be wise.

Walder is just going in on the stereotypes until he just explodes into nonsensical racism which leaves Theon angry until the learned tells him that the stereotypes may actually be based on fact. (Which to us of course is nonsense, they don't have magical lunges or gills I suppose, they are just chilling in the basement)

But yea we see Dothraki talking shit about Westerosi, the Qarthinans making fun of Dothraki, the Ghiscari elevating themselves over all and the two westerosi knights remaining the most smug. To which Danys unequivocal response is "shut up"

So yea, there no words like bigotry or racism being thrown around, like there's no talk of sexism or misogyny. Nevertheless they remain core foundations of asoiaf, as we see with Jon vs Bowen regarding the refugees 

[Nevets]

58 minutes ago, SeanF said:

In the case of Lazy Leo, and Viserys’ remarks to Dany about the Dothraki, it does get called out.  But, that’s probably because it’s such blatant rudeness.

Bowen’s attitude towards the Free Folk is probably widely shared in the North.

Meaning they're regarded as savages who are murderers, thieves and rapists?  Of course that would have nothing to do with any history of actually murdering people, stealing stuff, and kidnapping women and girls, subsequently raping them, now would it?

There may be some excessive prejudice, but their history isn't the kind of thing that inspires mutual trust.

Edited May 29, 2023 by Nevets