The Ned, Brandon, and Ashara timeline doesn't make sense.

[Hippocras]

20 hours ago, Castellan said:

I don't see why Barristan would know. It's probably in retrospect, hearing that Ashara had had a stillborn child, that people decided that it must have been Brandon at Harrenhal. They just elected a guilty party based on the limited information they have about Ashara. It makes a better story than "they say she had a child we don't know who's"

I think she's probably Septa Lemore.

 

For the record, we don't even actually know that Barristan thinks Brandon fathered her child. That is an assumption, and probably even one that GRRM is trying to lead us to, but that is not firmly supported by the wording.

First, "looked TO" is not at all how you would normally talk about someone having sexual interest. Looked AT, yes. Looked TO more typically in English implies a need for help or for answers to questions.

Second, "dishonoured" is also extremely ambiguous, and does not necessarily mean anything sexual, forced or consensual. There are other forms of disrespect that would also fall under this wording.

[maesternewton]

16 hours ago, Castellan said:

so she could run off and support Aegon like a royalist Dayne angry at the death of her brother.

So immediately after Ned came to Starfall, Ashara had somehow been contacted by Varys that Aegon was saved and she should fake her death to come and serve him?

13 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Because bastardry is such a stain that it even affects your marriage prospects which is important for both the House And the individual, especially if it’s a woman. Just look at  who she was going to marry, Beric Dondarrion, a great lord. Would he have married her if she were a bastard?

We don’t know her age but from all we know she should be in the right spot to be Ashara’s.

You are telling me that people in the Dayne household went through a lot of trouble to hide Allyria's true parentage because she is a bastard? In a region that doesn't stigmatize bastards in comparison to the rest of Westeros?

10 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Brandon has, to our knowledge, slept with just one high lady and everyone is claiming that he is involved with anyone from Ashara to Rhaella and even Lyanna. If this was real life, I'd be inclined, at face value that is, to take Brandon over Ned but since this is a story, Ned being Ashara's lover would serve more to the story. Cosnsidering that it doesn't serve to it much right now, it could be anything from a dropped smaller sideplot to just a little addition to flesh out the  characters.

6 hours ago, Lady_Qohor said:

To be fair, we only have hard gossip in story of him sleeping with Barbery. He may have slept with others but it doesn't sound like he was a massive man whore.

If he was I would have thought Cat or Ned would have thought about it or that Lysa or Littlefinger would have mentioned it as a way to insult Brandon.

According to GRRM:

It'd be an exaggeration to say that Brandon died before he could have children. It's established in the books that he was no virgin. He could very well have left behind some little Snows in the various places he visited. But what's absolutely clear is that he had no legitimate children.

When also look at Barbery's perspective of Brandon, then it's quite clear that Brandon was just like Robert. A man whore.

[Hippocras]

8 hours ago, maesternewton said:

So immediately after Ned came to Starfall, Ashara had somehow been contacted by Varys that Aegon was saved and she should fake her death to come and serve him?

You are telling me that people in the Dayne household went through a lot of trouble to hide Allyria's true parentage because she is a bastard? In a region that doesn't stigmatize bastards in comparison to the rest of Westeros?

According to GRRM:

It'd be an exaggeration to say that Brandon died before he could have children. It's established in the books that he was no virgin. He could very well have left behind some little Snows in the various places he visited. But what's absolutely clear is that he had no legitimate children.

When also look at Barbery's perspective of Brandon, then it's quite clear that Brandon was just like Robert. A man whore.

Truth. But, I feel like this bears repeating:

13 hours ago, Hippocras said:

For the record, we don't even actually know that Barristan thinks Brandon fathered her child. That is an assumption, and probably even one that GRRM is trying to lead us to, but that is not firmly supported by the wording.

First, "looked TO" is not at all how you would normally talk about someone having sexual interest. Looked AT, yes. Looked TO more typically in English implies a need for help or for answers to questions.

Second, "dishonoured" is also extremely ambiguous, and does not necessarily mean anything sexual, forced or consensual. There are other forms of disrespect that would also fall under this wording.

I am a firm believer that Brandon was a serial seducer. I am just not convinced he did anything to or with Ashara.

[Corvo the Crow]

15 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Could be Ashara never slept with either of the Stark brothers and was simply close friends or fast friends with Lyanna.  She was a legendary beauty and had many admirers.  There is no proof she had a child at all.  Likewise, her body was never recovered and like it or not, that does leave an opening for her survival.  Why she wouldn't claim her identity could be for many reasons none of which we are privy to.   All we can be sure of is Ashara Dayne, Elia Martell's close friend, possibly co conspirator of Rhaegar Targaryen, disappeared very soon after her friends died.   Heck of a rash of deaths surrounding Rhaegar, no?  Wonder what happened to Jonathor Darry and Richard Lonmouth?  Howland Reed?  Who else is left from the day?  

Even with Barristan's claims of a stillborn I'd have agreed with you but I don't because Allyria is born far too apart from her claimed siblings and  it just so happens that from all we know (Highborn maid flowering age, marriage age, etc.) she is about the right age to be Ashara's daughter. 

 

[Corvo the Crow]

11 hours ago, maesternewton said:

You are telling me that people in the Dayne household went through a lot of trouble to hide Allyria's true parentage because she is a bastard? In a region that doesn't stigmatize bastards in comparison to the rest of Westeros?

22 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Remind me again, just how many of the Dornish bastards we know of were married to a man of Beric's status? 

11 hours ago, maesternewton said:

According to GRRM:

It'd be an exaggeration to say that Brandon died before he could have children. It's established in the books that he was no virgin. He could very well have left behind some little Snows in the various places he visited. But what's absolutely clear is that he had no legitimate children.

So essentially he says he's not yet decided, and if there were any, they were SNOWs, not SANDs.

[Hippocras]

4 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Even with Barristan's claims of a stillborn I'd have agreed with you but I don't because Allyria is born far too apart from her claimed siblings and  it just so happens that from all we know (Highborn maid flowering age, marriage age, etc.) she is about the right age to be Ashara's daughter. 

 

There is no age limit on siblings in Westeros. Just look at Walder Frey. He has children who could be grandparents of his other children.

And obviously Rhaegar and Dany are a generation apart too.

Edited June 10, 2023 by Hippocras

[Curled Finger]

6 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Even with Barristan's claims of a stillborn I'd have agreed with you but I don't because Allyria is born far too apart from her claimed siblings and  it just so happens that from all we know (Highborn maid flowering age, marriage age, etc.) she is about the right age to be Ashara's daughter. 

 

Sort of.  We know that she is supposed to be the aunt of young Ned Dayne which would make her the sister of Ashara.  Insofar as age goes, marrying age could be 12 to 30 for all we know.  Arianne, a most eligible bachelorette in Dorne, is 24.   Beric Dondarrion is 23 or 24.  Gerold Dayne is a little older, late 20s.  We have no idea what Allyria's age actually is.   She could be 30 for all we know. 

For all it's worth, I'm unsure what "flowering age" is.  Sansa flowers at 13.  That would be way too young to be a child of Ashara's.  If it simply means child bearing age, well the onset of menses to menopause sometime in middle age, I reckon.   

Perhaps we should look for other female characters fitting the known appropriate age rather than settling on Allyria as the obvious.  

[Corvo the Crow]

11 hours ago, Hippocras said:

There is no age limit on siblings in Westeros. Just look at Walder Frey. He has children who could be grandparents of his other children.

And obviously Rhaegar and Dany are a generation apart too.

Dany is the exception and Walder Frey is a seperate case all by himself, he lived past what, 90? and he outlived several wives and kept on marrying, when many of the lords probably don't go past 70 and certainly don't keep on marrying again and again. Placement of previous siblings, Ned's father the oldest, Arthur and Ashara, also makes it hard. 

6 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Sort of.  We know that she is supposed to be the aunt of young Ned Dayne which would make her the sister of Ashara.  Insofar as age goes, marrying age could be 12 to 30 for all we know.  Arianne, a most eligible bachelorette in Dorne, is 24.   Beric Dondarrion is 23 or 24.  Gerold Dayne is a little older, late 20s.  We have no idea what Allyria's age actually is.   She could be 30 for all we know. 

For all it's worth, I'm unsure what "flowering age" is.  Sansa flowers at 13.  That would be way too young to be a child of Ashara's.  If it simply means child bearing age, well the onset of menses to menopause sometime in middle age, I reckon.   

Perhaps we should look for other female characters fitting the known appropriate age rather than settling on Allyria as the obvious.  

This is a feudal society that lives in medieval times. Having many children is important which without (or even with) modern medicine, women have a much shorter span of attaining that goal than men and living in medieval times, you don't know whether you'll die next winter due to a simple chill before even being married, let alone having a child. Arianne only stayed single because of Doran's ambition. As for Allyria's age, we have a fairly good idea what her age would be. She was betrothed to Beric for several years, no need to delay the marriage for many years unless she was yet to flower.  Sansa's flowering was at 12? 13? This is what we've been told for most highborn ladies, emphasis on most, as we also know of some who weren't. Alys is almost of an age with Jon so she's 15 when she goes to Jon, perhaps even 16(born 284 or 285). She was betrothed and they were waiting for her to flower but war broke out(sometime in 298) before the marriage could happen, we don't know how long after that she flowered. Beric was probably going to marry Allyria right after the Tourney of Hand, which could put her flowering age around what Alys' was. 

 

[Curled Finger]

34 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 She was betrothed and they were waiting for her to flower but war broke out(sometime in 298) before the marriage could happen, we don't know how long after that she flowered. Beric was probably going to marry Allyria right after the Tourney of Hand, which could put her flowering age around what Alys' was. 

 

That would make her too young for Ashara.  The child was rumored to have been conceived at Harrenhal, in 281.  Ashara "dies" in 283.  The current year is 300.  No idea what time in 281 the tourney was held, but I am thinking this is an older child, 16 to 18.  No hard dates here.  Something has to be true in the Ashara story.  As I said, she may have never been pregnant at all.  I have my own ideas about Ashara's love interests and whereabouts.  

[Hippocras]

7 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Dany is the exception and Walder Frey is a seperate case all by himself, he lived past what, 90? and he outlived several wives and kept on marrying, when many of the lords probably don't go past 70 and certainly don't keep on marrying again and again. Placement of previous siblings, Ned's father the oldest, Arthur and Ashara, also makes it hard. 

I think you just want it to be impossible so you are convincing yourself of that. Arthur was born in or before 260, Ashara between 260 and 269. So Ned's father was born in or before 259, same age as Rhaegar. Ashara's daughter would be very slightly older than Dany. If it was not impossible for Aerys and Rhaella to have Dany, then it was not impossible for the Daynes to have a very similar family age gap. Remember also the very young age at which noble women frequently married and had children. Lord Dayne's mother may only have been 13 years old when he was born, so around 54-56 years old now. She could even still have another child tomorrow! While pregnancies are riskier and less likely as we get older, women can in fact have children until menopause, which some women do not experience until their late 50s. Allyria could easily be her daughter and be only 12 or 13 years old now.

Furthermore, you seem to be forgetting about the frequency of remarriage in a time where death from childbirth was very common, We know nothing about anyone's mother, so we have absolutely no clue if all of these Dayne siblings had the same mother. There is absolutely nothing unbelievable about Allyria actually being Ned's aunt.

Beric Dondarion and Allyria's betrothal has some kind of significance to this story, I will grant you that. But I think you need to look more at histories and missing links in family trees than at Ashara's daughter to know why. My hunch is that the key to all of this lies in the peace brokering between Dorne and the Iron Throne, and in the tense Blackfyre rebellion era during the reigns of Daeron II and Aerys I. I think it was not just Targaryens and Martells that married to seal peace, but Marcher Lords and Stony Dornish neighbours, including the Penrose children of Elaena Targaryen, who themselves were connected by family to Mya or Gwenys Rivers.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Hippocras

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On 6/8/2023 at 5:52 PM, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

I doubt we’ll ever know for sure, but my money is on Ned. We know Brandon was a dog, but no way would Ned remember Brandon so positively if he slept with his crush. We also don’t really know when Ned went back to the Vale. It may have been immediately after Harrenhal, but we know Lyanna was somewhere in the Riverlands weeks to months after the Tourney. I doubt she was without Brandon or Ned, at least for a good portion of her time. I also can’t recall the timeline of when Ashara went to Dragonstone with Rhaegar. We also don’t know if she was with Rhaegar when he ran off with Lyanna.

 

To be simple, there isn’t much evidence proving one father over the other, so it’s more of a feeling and hope I have. 

Where is all this Brandon hate come from , he was having relations with one woman Barbrey Ryswell, and that was before Catelyn .

[BalerionTheCat]

I don't think it's "the timeline doesn't make sense". It's we don't know enough to draw a timeline.

I believe she died right after Ned left her to return to Cat. It was the straw that broke the camel's back. After her brother and daughter's death. So her love was Ned not Brandon. At Harrendal Ned was free of engagement. Their marriage, between ancient and noble houses, would have been quite a match. An honor for both.

If the daughter is born about the same time as Jon and Robb, she's definitely not Brandon's. She would have been conceived right before Ned's marriage with Cat. Maybe a last desperate attempt of Ashara to divert Ned from Cat. At a time when he may still believe he could avoid this awful deal with Hoster Tully. It would help to explain the difficult beginning of Ned and Cat marriage. All it needs is Ashara joining Ned before he reaches Riverrun.

Edited June 24, 2023 by BalerionTheCat

[Arrow of the Morning]

 

On 6/8/2023 at 5:24 PM, maesternewton said:

Whether or not it's Ned or Brandon, the problem with theories that state the father of Ashara's baby was a Stark is that the timelines don't make sense.

Most of the theories state that Ashara's babe was conceived during the Tourney of Harrenhal, which happens in 281 AC. Since this is where Barristan states she was dishonored by a Stark.

But part of the reason why Ashara dies by suicide is because she has a stillborn daughter. If her daughter was conceived during the Tourney, then it does not make sense for that to be the cause that makes her jump off a tower since by 283 AC, the year Ashara dies, the baby would have been already dead.

If then the baby was not conceived during the tourney in Harrenhal, then it could not be Brandon since after the Tourney he dies and could not be Ned, since he spends most of his time fighting a war.

Looking at the wiki, it seems like the Tourney of Harrenhal occured close to the end of the year, since it happens in 281 AC but it is stated Brandon dies in 282 AC. And after leaving the Tourney Brandon goes to Riverrun.

Actually the timeline makes sense.

Ashara's child could had been conceived during the Harrenhal tournament, in the case both Brandon and Ned could be the father. And, yes, the baby could had be conceived after the tournament during in between the tournament of Harrenhal and the beginning of the Robert Rebellion!

There is some months between the tournament and Lyanna's kidnaping, no source states how many months but it was enough for Elia  to give birth to Aegon, during this period too Brandon went to Riverrun to get engaged (and beat Littlefinger's arse), go back to the North and go South again to his wedding. I think it is unlikely that Brandon met Ashara again during this time, but we don't know where Ned went, he could have gone North or returned to the Vale, what is much closer to King's Landing and Dragonstone and he might have met Ashara during this time and there is a chance he fathered a child.

In any case, by the time Ned went to Starfall deliver Dawn, Ashara would have lost the child some months earlier. In almost every account about her death, they speculate about the motivation of her suicide and make different propositions; Barristan speculates if it was because of the lost child or because of the man who dishonored her, Edric Dayne said it was because of a broken heart and Cersei inquires if it was because of the death of her brother and the stolen child. Anyway, it is likely she was motivated for more than one tragic event.

And about Brandon or Ned being the father of the child, we know about how different the two brothers were. Ned was shy and very honorable while Brandon was charming and was not shy with women. Having sex with a unmarried noblewoman is in character for Brandon (he did it before), Ned is the unlikely candidate, but I don't think it was impossible for him to have sex with Ashara even with they were not married, it is just less likely.

[Arrow of the Morning]

On 6/8/2023 at 6:52 PM, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

I doubt we’ll ever know for sure, but my money is on Ned. We know Brandon was a dog, but no way would Ned remember Brandon so positively if he slept with his crush. We also don’t really know when Ned went back to the Vale. It may have been immediately after Harrenhal, but we know Lyanna was somewhere in the Riverlands weeks to months after the Tourney. I doubt she was without Brandon or Ned, at least for a good portion of her time. I also can’t recall the timeline of when Ashara went to Dragonstone with Rhaegar. We also don’t know if she was with Rhaegar when he ran off with Lyanna.

 

To be simple, there isn’t much evidence proving one father over the other, so it’s more of a feeling and hope I have. 

On 6/8/2023 at 7:01 PM, maesternewton said:

My issue with it being Ned, is that we don't even get a clue of such a thing from Ned. Not even when Cersei brings up Ashara, does Ned react. 

Plus, does Ned even think of Brandon postively?

On 6/8/2023 at 7:37 PM, James Arryn said:

I’m not sure Ned’s memories of Brandon are all that monochromatic. I detect notes of bitterness, envy and slight disapproval along with older brother crush stuff. 

We don't know, but I think it is possible that Ned and Brandon might have a clash. He for sure loved his brother enough to honor him with a statue over his grave at the crypts of Winterfell. I don't remember he expressing anger or resentment towards his brother in his POV chapters; the only feelings he showed was inadequacy.

Quote

"...we know Lyanna was somewhere in the Riverlands weeks to months after the Tourney. I doubt she was without Brandon or Ned, at least for a good portion of her time."

By the way, before Lyanna's kidnaping something weird was happening with the Stark family. Each member was separated from each other, Lyanna was close to Harrenhal, Brandon was probably in the Riverlands too, but was not close to her, Ned seems to in the Vale (why didn't he joined his brother wedding?) and Rickard seemed to be in Winterfell. George might have separate them for sake of the plot, but might there be a reason for this.

[Otatop1000]

Ser Grandfather tells us Ashara had a stillborn daughter.  Lonmouth is Lem Lemoncloak, IMO.  Howland is chilling with his Lizard Lions picking off Iron Born and Boltons at Moat Cailin.  Jonathor I don’t know never given him a thought.

[Kal-L]

On 6/9/2023 at 7:36 PM, kissdbyfire said:

Beg to differ. Not only a lot can be inferred in the way Barbrey talks about him to Theon, but we also have Martin saying that Brandon “certainly was no virgin”, hinting that a man whore is exactly what he was. 

What ? Him being no virgin mean that he is a manwhore ? What is that kind of leap ?

On 6/9/2023 at 12:37 AM, James Arryn said:

I’m not sure Ned’s memories of Brandon are all that monochromatic. I detect notes of bitterness, envy and slight disapproval along with older brother crush stuff. 

Where did you get the disapproval part ?

On 6/8/2023 at 11:52 PM, Lady Stonehearts Simp said:

I doubt we’ll ever know for sure, but my money is on Ned. We know Brandon was a dog, but no way would Ned remember Brandon so positively if he slept with his crush.

The question is, why do people affirm with such confidence that Ned had a "crush" on Ashara Dayne ?

[Corvo the Crow]

Stark that Barristan thinks of is Ned. We have literally nothing in the text to suggest that it’s Brandon and everything we have suggests that it’s Ned. 
 

Ned’s soldiers, who are the household of Starks, spread tales of Ned and Ashara in Winterfell, rumors Cersei heard are also about Ned and Ashara, even in the Dayne family it is Ned and Ashara. If it was Brandon, why hide it? Ashara and Brandon are long dead while Ned is alive.

[Kal-L]

8 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

 

Ned’s soldiers, who are the household of Starks, spread tales of Ned and Ashara in Winterfell, rumors Cersei heard are also about Ned and Ashara, even in the Dayne family it is Ned and Ashara. If it was Brandon, why hide it? Ashara and Brandon are long dead while Ned is alive.

So literally nobody anywhere close to the people concerned and/or who could have known what happened at Harrenhal. Neither Allyria nor Edric were born at that time, the only tale people know is that Ned brought back Arthur's sword and that Ashara killed herself (speculation the reason behind it).

Robert, Ned's best friend who grew with him and was there at Harrenhal spoke of Wylla -the mother of Ned's bastard- as someone special for making Lord Stark "forget about his honor for a hour". Wylla, Ashara there seem to be quite a lot of women turning the head of the supposed very honorable Ned... Unless the King (unlike random people like his wife) actually knew the rumours about Ashara Dayne were bullshit and simply ignored them.

If a Stark really had fling with Ashara (which we don't know yet), there were actually very good reasons to cover the identity if the soon-to-wed heir of Winterfell happened to be the father.

[Corvo the Crow]

35 minutes ago, Kal-L said:

So literally nobody anywhere close to the people concerned and/or who could have known what happened at Harrenhal. Neither Allyria nor Edric were born at that time, the only tale people know is that Ned brought back Arthur's sword and that Ashara killed herself (speculation the reason behind it).

Literally the household of Starks, you know the house Brandon is part of, think of Ashara and Ned and not the other way around. Some of the household would definitely be in Harrenhal unless you suggest Starks had no escort travelling to Harrenhal, which won’t be happening. 
 

Allyria and Edric not being born also means nothing. Edric’s father was alive, many of their guards and servants would be alive and serving them at the time too.

40 minutes ago, Kal-L said:

a Stark really had fling with Ashara (which we don't know yet), there were actually very good reasons to cover the identity if the soon-to-wed heir of Winterfell happened to be the father.

Umm… did you read the part where I mentioned how Ashara and Brandon are dead? Literally no reason to cover for dead Brandon who was dead for a year even when Ashara died and both Ashara and Brandon are dead for over a decade when Edric would learn of this story so no Brandon isn’t the soon-to-wed heir, that needs his identity to be covered-and why would Daynes even cover for him in the first place?- he’s the long dead brother of the alive and wed Lord Ned who would suffer and could use cover more than Brandon. 

[Arrow of the Morning]

37 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

Literally the household of Starks, you know the house Brandon is part of, think of Ashara and Ned and not the other way around. Some of the household would definitely be in Harrenhal unless you suggest Starks had no escort travelling to Harrenhal, which won’t be happening. 
 

Allyria and Edric not being born also means nothing. Edric’s father was alive, many of their guards and servants would be alive and serving them at the time too.

Umm… did you read the part where I mentioned how Ashara and Brandon are dead? Literally no reason to cover for dead Brandon who was dead for a year even when Ashara died and both Ashara and Brandon are dead for over a decade when Edric would learn of this story so no Brandon isn’t the soon-to-wed heir, that needs his identity to be covered-and why would Daynes even cover for him in the first place?- he’s the long dead brother of the alive and wed Lord Ned who would suffer and could use cover more than Brandon. 

Brandon might be dead, but thething about Ned's honor is that it is not just about his personal conduct and public image, but also about the honor of the ones he love and he goes in great lenght to protect their honor even if he has to sacrifice his own. He for sure did it for Lyanna at the point of taking her child and saying he is his bastard son, something really dishonorable for him and that cause strain on his marriage. He might have done the same for Brandon, he for sure know about his brother sexual escapades, but he for sure never told Cat elyn about it. AnNed might have done the same for Ashara, the woman he loved, and hded the fact she was having a bastard.

If Brandon did indeed had a fling with Ashara he might have hiden it well and may be Ned might have helped him in it deflecting the blame for himself.