What is compelling about having Daenerys be someone other than the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella?

[Gilbert Green]

@Sandy Clegg, who requested something like this.

Disclaimer: What I present below is merely an exercise.  If the theory turns out to be true, GRRM will supply the details, not I.  The precision of the dates (and other details) is an illusion.  I merely make up dates, and details, to test if I can get any set of dates and details to work.  The only thing preventing the dates from being entirely arbitrary, is that not all dates can be made to work. GRRM would do a better job than I can (unless he really does suck at timelines, as some allege).  Also, though some might find it helpful, I don't really consider this timeline to be "evidence".  Rather, I would cite as evidence the list of clues I provided earlier.

Feel free to point out any problems with the timeline. 

A SAMPLE NARRATIVE TIMELINE DESIGNED TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE THEORY THAT DANY WAS THE CHILD BORN TO LYANNA AT THE TOWER OF JOY and JON WAS BORN TO LYANNA 10 MONTHS EARLIER.

    281-11-20, start of the Tourney at Harrenhall

    281-11-30, end of the Tourney at Harrenhall

    282-1-1, Rhaegar leaves Kings Landing

    282-2-15, Rhaegar abducts Lyanna.  

    282-4-1, Brandon & company arrive in King’s Landing to confront Rhaegar, and are imprisoned.   

    282-6-1, Rickard Stark arrives in response to Aerys’ summons; he and Brandon are executed by Aerys.  

    282-8-1.  Jon Arryn raises his banners in revolt.  Ned becomes pledged to Cat in Brandon’s place.

    282-8-15, Birth date of a hypothetical child conceived at Harrenhall.

    282-9-7, Ned sneaks across the Bite with the fisherman's daughter (Wylla?).  

    282-9-15   Battle of Gulltown.   .

    282-10-1, Robert reaches Storm's End; raises banners; Ned reaches Winterfell; raises his banners.

    282-10-10   Lord Willam answers Ned’s call, leaving his wife Barbrey, and riding off on the magnificent red stallion she gifted him.  He swears he will ride back on the horse.

    282-10-15.  Battle of Summerhall.  

    282-10-23.   Battle of Ashford.

    282-11-7.    Battle of the Bells.  

    282-11-20.   Tyrells begin siege of Storms End.  

    282-11-21.  Tully sisters joint wedding at Riverrun.

    282-12-4,  Ned leaves Riverrun.  Cat already pregnant.

    283-2-28, Lyanna gives birth to a son.  Lyanna is for some reason unable to breastfeed, and this task is assigned to a servant; with the consequence that Lyanna quickly becomes fertile again.  

    283-4-14, Rhaegar now gets word of outside events, and prepares to leave Lyanna.  For purely sentimental reasons (he thinks he has already produced the 3 kids needed for the prophesy) Rhaegar makes love to her one last time.    

    283-5-15, Rhaegar emerges out of the South and starts taking charge of the war.

    283-6-15.  The Battle of the Trident occurs.   

    283-6-15.   Wylla gives birth a child, who Ned names “Jon Snow”, after Jon Arryn.

    283-6-16,   Wylla & “Jon Snow” stay behind with the wounded Lord Robert, while Ned takes his army and leads it south to King’s Landing.

    283-8-7, Rhaella sails from Kings Landing

    283-8-15,   Lannisters sack Kings Landing.  

    283-8-16, Elia and her babe(s) are murdered, and Ned arrives to confront Jaime on the Iron Throne.  

    283-8-17, Robert arrives at King's Landing; Tywin presents dead babes.  Wylla and her “Jon Snow” arrive with King Robert.   Ned leaves King's Landing to take his army South, and Wylla, for whatever reason, joins him.

    283-8-21, Robb Stark is born to Cat at Riverrun.

    283-11-7, Riverrun receives news that Ned has fathered a bastard on campaign. Cat muses that this does not bother her, because man’s needs etc., and they had spent the previous year, the first year of their marriage, apart.

    283–11-15, Ned’s army reaches Storm’s End, and lifts the siege, almost one year from the start of the siege (see above).  After sorting out whatever he needs to sort out, he leaves on a quest to find Lyanna.

    284-1-1, Tower of Joy incident.  4 of Ned’s companions are killed, leaving Lord Willam (who is wounded and unable to ride), and Howland Reed.  Rhaegar’s daughter is born at this time; and Lyanna dies in childbirth.  Ned is the first to reach Lyanna’s deathbed and Lyanna makes him promise things.  Lyanna dies, and  Howland and Willam (“they”) find him with her.
    As the child is born, and as Lyanna dies, a storm of rose petals blows across a blood-red sky.  So Rhaegar’s daughter is indeed “storm born”, consistent with the HOTU prophesy.
    Ned brings additional resources from a more-distant camp.  Ned builds 8 cairns, for his 4 dead companions, the 3 dead kingsguard member, and for Lyanna.  Lord Willam does not need a cairn because he is not (yet) dead.  Rhaegar’s 10-month old son gets assigned to Wylla for wetnursing, and assumes the identity of her own younger son, who has since died (a not uncommon medieval occurrence).
    The 3 survivors of the ToJ battle face a problem.  Babykiller Robert sits on the Iron Throne, and the 3 survivors have two dragonspawn babies on their hands who need to be protected and kept secret.  Only they, and not too many others, know this secret, and the more people they let in on the secret, the greater the risk.  Rhaegar and Lyanna no doubt had servants, but since they were in hiding, any servants might not have known Rhaegar and Lyanna’s true identities.  The older boy, who looks like a Stark, can be hidden in plain sight at Winterfell.  But the girl?   She’s got purple eyes and silver blond hair.
    It is Lord Willam who volunteers to remain with the Targ-featured girl in the hidden valley.  He has three reasons.  First, he has been wounded in the ToJ battle and can no longer ride, which means he cannot return at all according to the curious oath he made to Barbrey. Second, he might not want to return to Barbrey anyhow – it is perfectly plausible that he has already had more than enough.  Thirdly, someone who is in the know should be in charge fo the child, and the more people are let in on the secret the greater the danger to everyone.  
    So Lord Willam remains behind in the rose-scented hidden valley, aided by servants who are for the most part not “in the know”, caring for a Targ-featured baby.

    284-3-1, Eddard visits Starfall and returns Dawn.

    284-4-28, Rhaella gives birth to a daughter on Dragonstone, who she names “Daenerys”.  She is born during a storm, hence “Daenerys Stormborn”.  She is about 3-4 months younger than Rhaegar and Lyanna’s daughter (also “Stormborn”) born at the Tower of Joy.  Rhaella dies.

    284-4-30, Ser Willem Darry escapes Dragonstone with Viserys and the baby.  Note that, although Rhaella’s daughter is still alive at this point, she will not live long.  Like most of Aerys and Rhaella’s projeny, she will probably die within a year of birth.  

    284-6-7, Ned passes through Barrowtown with Lyanna's bones (retrieved from their cairn) and Dustin's horse.  Barbrey is offended that Ned did not return Lord Willam’s bones.  But Lord Willam is (secretly) not dead yet.

    284-6-15, Dragonstone surrenders to Stannis’ fleet –  “the wars" are over at last.

    284-7-15 (after the “wars” are over at last,), Cat rides north to join her husband at Winterfell.  Her child is still very young (maybe 13 months) so she travels slowly.

    284-8-15, Cat arrives at Winterfell.  Robb is now 14 months old.  Cat now learns, for the first time, that Ned has brought “Jon Snow” home to Winterfell.  She now gets upset about this, though she was not upset before.  At this point Jon is officially (having adopted the identity and nameday of Wylla’s dead child) 16 months old, and 2 months older than Robb.  
    The servants, however, believe Jon to be older than his official nameday.  They think Jon was conceived at Harrenhall, which means they suspect (incorrectly) that he is actually 26 months old, a year older than Robb, and 10 months older than his official nameday.
    Maester Luwin tries to cover for Jon by saying thinks like “bastards mature faster than trueborn children.”
    The truth lies between the extremes of Jon’s official nameday and the servants suspicions.  He is actually 20 months old, 6 months older than Robb, and 4 months older than his official nameday.

    288-01-01, the Red Viper visits Braavos and executes the Viserys/Arianne marriage pact with Ser Willem Darry with the Sealord as a witness.  The pact makes no mention of Dany (which makes Dany feel strange).  This may be a clue that Rhaella’s daughter has already died by this point, or at least that Ser Willem Darry no longer has custody of her.  This event coincides in time with Rhaegar’s daughter’s fragmentary mentories of living with Lord Willam in the mountains of Dorne, in a valley.  Neither Viserys nor Arianne are told of the pact, because it is a deep dark secret, and both are still under 16.

    288-06-01, Ser Willem Darry dies in Braavos, and Viserys begins touring the Free Cities.

    289-01-15, Ser Willam Dustin dies in the mountains of Dorne.  The servants steal stuff.  Someone takes Rhaegar’s daughter, who cries as the house with the red door closes behind her forever.  Rhaegar’s daughter falls into the wrong hands (either because she is already in the wrong hands or because her protector gets attacked by brigands or pirates).  She get sold to a sea captain, and transported to a slave port, in the Free Cities, where she ultimately gets picked up by one of Illyrio’s procurers.
    Rhaegar’s daughter has no particular memory of this sea voyage.  She has been making sea voyages as long as she can remember, or (as she puts it) “hundreds” or times.
    Rhaegar’s daughter has no idea she is Rhaegar’s daughter.  You don’t tell that kind of secret to a small child while babykiller Robert remains on the Iron Throne.  Hence, none of her captors know she is Rhaegar’s daughter either.

    289-06-15   Early in his tour of the Free Cities, Viserys encounters Illyrio.  Together they hatch a scheme to resurrect his deceased sister to use as political capital.  Illyro chooses a Valyrian featured girl as a likely candidate from his collection, and hands her off to Viserys for programming.  The girl he chooses happens to be Rhaegar’s daughter.  (This is not entirely coincidence – she looks like a Targ because she is a Targ; and her being a native speaker of Westerosi is also a plus).  Viserys tells his fake sisters stories, and instructs her on her identity and history.  When she forgets who she is supposed to be, he punishes her, as when she told him she would like to be a sailor.  She conflates his stories with her memories, until she believes that she and Viserys were living in Braavos, in the company of Ser Darry, in a house with a red door and a lemon tree outside her window, and the scent of blue roses.The scheme will culminate in Illyrio selling his fake princess

[Hippocras]

@Gilbert Green

Firt point: The Tourney at Harrenhal was about a year before Lyanna's abduction, your timeline is too short there. Again, I don't have good resources for quote finding, but "the next year" is I believe what it said.

[Gilbert Green]

7 hours ago, Hippocras said:

@Gilbert Green

Firt point: The Tourney at Harrenhal was about a year before Lyanna's abduction, your timeline is too short there. Again, I don't have good resources for quote finding, but "the next year" is I believe what it said.

You are never going to make that work.  If you put the abduction at the end of 282 then, what with all the other stuff you have to fit in, you will have to push the start of the siege of Storms End well into early 283.  Then what with your desire to have the end of the siege of Storms End closely follow the Sack, then the year long siege of Storms End is now down to maybe 6 months, if even that.

[Hippocras]

7 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

You are never going to make that work.  If you put the abduction at the end of 282 then, what with all the other stuff you have to fit in, you will have to push the start of the siege of Storms End well into early 283.  Then what with your desire to have the end of the siege of Storms End closely follow the Sack, then the year long siege of Storms End is now down to maybe 6 months, if even that.

The abduction was the beginning of 282, I agree. It is just that the tournament must have been earlier in 281.

[Nevets]

19 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

@Sandy Clegg, who requested something like this.

Disclaimer: What I present below is merely an exercise.  If the theory turns out to be true, GRRM will supply the details, not I.  The precision of the dates (and other details) is an illusion.  I merely make up dates, and details, to test if I can get any set of dates and details to work.  The only thing preventing the dates from being entirely arbitrary, is that not all dates can be made to work. GRRM would do a better job than I can (unless he really does suck at timelines, as some allege).  Also, though some might find it helpful, I don't really consider this timeline to be "evidence".  Rather, I would cite as evidence the list of clues I provided earlier.

Feel free to point out any problems with the timeline. 

A SAMPLE NARRATIVE TIMELINE DESIGNED TO BE CONSISTENT WITH THE THEORY THAT DANY WAS THE CHILD BORN TO LYANNA AT THE TOWER OF JOY and JON WAS BORN TO LYANNA 10 MONTHS EARLIER.

    281-11-20, start of the Tourney at Harrenhall

    281-11-30, end of the Tourney at Harrenhall

    282-1-1, Rhaegar leaves Kings Landing

    282-2-15, Rhaegar abducts Lyanna.  

    282-4-1, Brandon & company arrive in King’s Landing to confront Rhaegar, and are imprisoned.   

    282-6-1, Rickard Stark arrives in response to Aerys’ summons; he and Brandon are executed by Aerys.  

    282-8-1.  Jon Arryn raises his banners in revolt.  Ned becomes pledged to Cat in Brandon’s place.

    282-8-15, Birth date of a hypothetical child conceived at Harrenhall.

    282-9-7, Ned sneaks across the Bite with the fisherman's daughter (Wylla?).  

    282-9-15   Battle of Gulltown.   .

    282-10-1, Robert reaches Storm's End; raises banners; Ned reaches Winterfell; raises his banners.

    282-10-10   Lord Willam answers Ned’s call, leaving his wife Barbrey, and riding off on the magnificent red stallion she gifted him.  He swears he will ride back on the horse.

    282-10-15.  Battle of Summerhall.  

    282-10-23.   Battle of Ashford.

    282-11-7.    Battle of the Bells.  

    282-11-20.   Tyrells begin siege of Storms End.  

    282-11-21.  Tully sisters joint wedding at Riverrun.

    282-12-4,  Ned leaves Riverrun.  Cat already pregnant.

    283-2-28, Lyanna gives birth to a son.  Lyanna is for some reason unable to breastfeed, and this task is assigned to a servant; with the consequence that Lyanna quickly becomes fertile again.  

    283-4-14, Rhaegar now gets word of outside events, and prepares to leave Lyanna.  For purely sentimental reasons (he thinks he has already produced the 3 kids needed for the prophesy) Rhaegar makes love to her one last time.    

    283-5-15, Rhaegar emerges out of the South and starts taking charge of the war.

    283-6-15.  The Battle of the Trident occurs.   

    283-6-15.   Wylla gives birth a child, who Ned names “Jon Snow”, after Jon Arryn.

    283-6-16,   Wylla & “Jon Snow” stay behind with the wounded Lord Robert, while Ned takes his army and leads it south to King’s Landing.

    283-8-7, Rhaella sails from Kings Landing

    283-8-15,   Lannisters sack Kings Landing.  

    283-8-16, Elia and her babe(s) are murdered, and Ned arrives to confront Jaime on the Iron Throne.  

    283-8-17, Robert arrives at King's Landing; Tywin presents dead babes.  Wylla and her “Jon Snow” arrive with King Robert.   Ned leaves King's Landing to take his army South, and Wylla, for whatever reason, joins him.

    283-8-21, Robb Stark is born to Cat at Riverrun.

    283-11-7, Riverrun receives news that Ned has fathered a bastard on campaign. Cat muses that this does not bother her, because man’s needs etc., and they had spent the previous year, the first year of their marriage, apart.

    283–11-15, Ned’s army reaches Storm’s End, and lifts the siege, almost one year from the start of the siege (see above).  After sorting out whatever he needs to sort out, he leaves on a quest to find Lyanna.

    284-1-1, Tower of Joy incident.  4 of Ned’s companions are killed, leaving Lord Willam (who is wounded and unable to ride), and Howland Reed.  Rhaegar’s daughter is born at this time; and Lyanna dies in childbirth.  Ned is the first to reach Lyanna’s deathbed and Lyanna makes him promise things.  Lyanna dies, and  Howland and Willam (“they”) find him with her.
    As the child is born, and as Lyanna dies, a storm of rose petals blows across a blood-red sky.  So Rhaegar’s daughter is indeed “storm born”, consistent with the HOTU prophesy.
    Ned brings additional resources from a more-distant camp.  Ned builds 8 cairns, for his 4 dead companions, the 3 dead kingsguard member, and for Lyanna.  Lord Willam does not need a cairn because he is not (yet) dead.  Rhaegar’s 10-month old son gets assigned to Wylla for wetnursing, and assumes the identity of her own younger son, who has since died (a not uncommon medieval occurrence).
    The 3 survivors of the ToJ battle face a problem.  Babykiller Robert sits on the Iron Throne, and the 3 survivors have two dragonspawn babies on their hands who need to be protected and kept secret.  Only they, and not too many others, know this secret, and the more people they let in on the secret, the greater the risk.  Rhaegar and Lyanna no doubt had servants, but since they were in hiding, any servants might not have known Rhaegar and Lyanna’s true identities.  The older boy, who looks like a Stark, can be hidden in plain sight at Winterfell.  But the girl?   She’s got purple eyes and silver blond hair.
    It is Lord Willam who volunteers to remain with the Targ-featured girl in the hidden valley.  He has three reasons.  First, he has been wounded in the ToJ battle and can no longer ride, which means he cannot return at all according to the curious oath he made to Barbrey. Second, he might not want to return to Barbrey anyhow – it is perfectly plausible that he has already had more than enough.  Thirdly, someone who is in the know should be in charge fo the child, and the more people are let in on the secret the greater the danger to everyone.  
    So Lord Willam remains behind in the rose-scented hidden valley, aided by servants who are for the most part not “in the know”, caring for a Targ-featured baby.

    284-3-1, Eddard visits Starfall and returns Dawn.

    284-4-28, Rhaella gives birth to a daughter on Dragonstone, who she names “Daenerys”.  She is born during a storm, hence “Daenerys Stormborn”.  She is about 3-4 months younger than Rhaegar and Lyanna’s daughter (also “Stormborn”) born at the Tower of Joy.  Rhaella dies.

    284-4-30, Ser Willem Darry escapes Dragonstone with Viserys and the baby.  Note that, although Rhaella’s daughter is still alive at this point, she will not live long.  Like most of Aerys and Rhaella’s projeny, she will probably die within a year of birth.  

    284-6-7, Ned passes through Barrowtown with Lyanna's bones (retrieved from their cairn) and Dustin's horse.  Barbrey is offended that Ned did not return Lord Willam’s bones.  But Lord Willam is (secretly) not dead yet.

    284-6-15, Dragonstone surrenders to Stannis’ fleet –  “the wars" are over at last.

    284-7-15 (after the “wars” are over at last,), Cat rides north to join her husband at Winterfell.  Her child is still very young (maybe 13 months) so she travels slowly.

    284-8-15, Cat arrives at Winterfell.  Robb is now 14 months old.  Cat now learns, for the first time, that Ned has brought “Jon Snow” home to Winterfell.  She now gets upset about this, though she was not upset before.  At this point Jon is officially (having adopted the identity and nameday of Wylla’s dead child) 16 months old, and 2 months older than Robb.  
    The servants, however, believe Jon to be older than his official nameday.  They think Jon was conceived at Harrenhall, which means they suspect (incorrectly) that he is actually 26 months old, a year older than Robb, and 10 months older than his official nameday.
    Maester Luwin tries to cover for Jon by saying thinks like “bastards mature faster than trueborn children.”
    The truth lies between the extremes of Jon’s official nameday and the servants suspicions.  He is actually 20 months old, 6 months older than Robb, and 4 months older than his official nameday.

    288-01-01, the Red Viper visits Braavos and executes the Viserys/Arianne marriage pact with Ser Willem Darry with the Sealord as a witness.  The pact makes no mention of Dany (which makes Dany feel strange).  This may be a clue that Rhaella’s daughter has already died by this point, or at least that Ser Willem Darry no longer has custody of her.  This event coincides in time with Rhaegar’s daughter’s fragmentary mentories of living with Lord Willam in the mountains of Dorne, in a valley.  Neither Viserys nor Arianne are told of the pact, because it is a deep dark secret, and both are still under 16.

    288-06-01, Ser Willem Darry dies in Braavos, and Viserys begins touring the Free Cities.

    289-01-15, Ser Willam Dustin dies in the mountains of Dorne.  The servants steal stuff.  Someone takes Rhaegar’s daughter, who cries as the house with the red door closes behind her forever.  Rhaegar’s daughter falls into the wrong hands (either because she is already in the wrong hands or because her protector gets attacked by brigands or pirates).  She get sold to a sea captain, and transported to a slave port, in the Free Cities, where she ultimately gets picked up by one of Illyrio’s procurers.
    Rhaegar’s daughter has no particular memory of this sea voyage.  She has been making sea voyages as long as she can remember, or (as she puts it) “hundreds” or times.
    Rhaegar’s daughter has no idea she is Rhaegar’s daughter.  You don’t tell that kind of secret to a small child while babykiller Robert remains on the Iron Throne.  Hence, none of her captors know she is Rhaegar’s daughter either.

    289-06-15   Early in his tour of the Free Cities, Viserys encounters Illyrio.  Together they hatch a scheme to resurrect his deceased sister to use as political capital.  Illyro chooses a Valyrian featured girl as a likely candidate from his collection, and hands her off to Viserys for programming.  The girl he chooses happens to be Rhaegar’s daughter.  (This is not entirely coincidence – she looks like a Targ because she is a Targ; and her being a native speaker of Westerosi is also a plus).  Viserys tells his fake sisters stories, and instructs her on her identity and history.  When she forgets who she is supposed to be, he punishes her, as when she told him she would like to be a sailor.  She conflates his stories with her memories, until she believes that she and Viserys were living in Braavos, in the company of Ser Darry, in a house with a red door and a lemon tree outside her window, and the scent of blue roses.The scheme will culminate in Illyrio selling his fake princess

So we have a man clearly stated as dead in the thoughts of a POV taking care of an infant in a house conveniently plopped down in the middle of nowhere.  What'd they do, borrow it from "The Wizard of Oz"?  I can think of better places: Greywater Watch for one.  A moving castle with no unannounced visitors sounds like a wonderful place to hide someone.  Starfall is another.  I suspect the Daynes are in this up to their silver little eyebrows and many of them look Valerian.

The servants appear disloyal so must be replacements.  No way were the ones with Lyanna unaware of true identities.  Rhaegar and the KG are among the most recognizable people in Westeros.

She then spends time as a slave, a hugely significant event that we have no hint ever occurred.  And then Illyrio conveniently chooses the only Targaryen he has to give to Viserys.

Meanwhile, the girl born on Dragonstone manages to die with nobody noticing.  This despite the fact that they are practically celebrities and there is no reason to hide it.  In fact, why not hold a blow out funeral with a nice pyre?

And then Illyrio shows up with a 5 year old substitute.  And he is perfectly willing to wait the 8-10 years necessary for her to be useful because he was simply planning on sitting on his ass while Robert consolidated power.

Is any of this actually making sense?  Because it sure doesn't to me.  If a murky timeline and a mysterious lemon tree is the biggest criticism you can find for what is generally known and believed, I'll happily take it over this nonsense.

[SaffronLady]

39 minutes ago, Nevets said:

the Daynes are in this up to their silver little eyebrows and many of them look Valerian.

For the Daynes I buy LML's theory that they are descendants of Great Empire of the Dawn colonizers, instead of them being Valyrian.

[Hippocras]

4 minutes ago, SaffronLady said:

For the Daynes I buy LML's theory that they are descendants of Great Empire of the Dawn colonizers, instead of them being Valyrian.

So many generations have passed, with may marriages to mothers who were not Daynes. So one by no means excludes the other. House Baratheon descends from Storm Kings AND Targaryens. etc.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Hippocras

[Gilbert Green]

6 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The abduction was the beginning of 282, I agree. It is just that the tournament must have been earlier in 281.

Okay.  But in that case there's enough time for 2 pregnancies.  So I don't understand your point.

[Hippocras]

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

Okay.  But in that case there's enough time for 2 pregnancies.  So I don't understand your point.

Lyanna was not abducted right after the tournament. She was abducted "the next year". The timeline in question does not start with the tournament, it starts with the timing of when Brandon's family were all travelling to Riverrun for his wedding, which was right after his duel with Littlefinger in (must be VERY) early 282.

It is interesting though that the timeline does seem to suggest that Brandon was not betrothed to Catelyn until beginning of 282, so at least a few months after the tournament. Which does throw a wrench in things regarding his availability during the tournament at Harrenhal.

 

EDIT: Nope, scratch that. Pretty sure the betrothals of both Brandon and Lyanna were earlier.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Hippocras

[Gilbert Green]

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

So we have a man clearly stated as dead in the thoughts of a POV

I addressed this already. 

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

taking care of an infant in a house conveniently plopped down in the middle of nowhere.  What'd they do, borrow it from "The Wizard of Oz"? 

Are you really being sarcastically incredulous about a house?

Towers rarely stand alone.  They have base structures; adjoining structures; and/or separate structures nearby.  GRRM will supply the details, not me.  But it is silly to be sarcastic about the very idea of a house in the mountains.  Westeros is a big place.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

I can think of better places: Greywater Watch for one.  A moving castle with no unannounced visitors sounds like a wonderful place to hide someone. 

Well, that would be another theory.  Rhaegar + Leanna = Meera.  I'm not against other theories.  They don't make me angry.  I'm not like you, that way.

However, I think you are overlooking the idea behind Greywater Watch.  It is not that it is so hidden that its secrets never leak out.  The idea is, that by the time its secrets DO leak out, its location has moved.

There are, I suppose, quite a few people at Greywater Watch.  And a Targaryen teatured child would be noticed.  And the news could reach King Robert.  Which would not be a good thing.  If he can send assassins to the Dothraki Sea, he can send assassins to Greywater Watch.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

Starfall is another.  I suspect the Daynes are in this up to their silver little eyebrows and many of them look Valerian.

Sure.  I have nothing against theories that involve one or more of the Daynes.  But that does not automatically mean you want to tell all the Daynes, including those not already in the know.  If you have a secret that could get a child killed (and maybe get yourself and others killed as traitors) you dispense such information on a need to know basis.

I'm not sure the Daynes, and their armies of whispering servants, would buy the theory that Rhaegar's daughter with Lyanna looks like a Dayne.  After all, the Daynes (and their servants) know what a Dayne looks like better than anyone else.

The ToJ survivors have a secret that could get them and one or more small children killed.  If you find it inconceivable that they would not just tell all the Daynes, then no doubt you also find it hard to understand why Ned refused to tell his own dear wife.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

The servants appear disloyal so must be replacements.  No way were the ones with Lyanna unaware of true identities. 

Not sure what you are saying here.  I have no strong opinions on how disloyal the servants were, or how many were replaced, or how many were in the know about this or that secret.   As I keep saying, GRRM will supply the details not me.  

But if you have a secret you keep it close.  You just don't tell all the servants (maybe one or two).  And if you are hiding, it makes sense not to tell everyone who you are.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

Rhaegar and the KG are among the most recognizable people in Westeros.

Right.  Because even in remote mountain valleys, everyone has access to tv and internet.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

She then spends time as a slave, a hugely significant event that we have no hint ever occurred. 

I showed you the hints.  You just ignore them and demand more.

Dude.  It's no big deal.  It is only a theory.  Nobody has to be convinced by it.  I did not even start this thread.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

Meanwhile, the girl born on Dragonstone manages to die with nobody noticing. 

Why is this a problem?  It is not as though she died on Dragonstone, or anywhere else where her death could not be hidden.  And if she disappears, the cover story could be that she is being hidden in a secret location to keep her safe from King Robert's hired knives. 

In medieval times, infant corpses are neither uncommon nor difficult to dispose of.  Sad but true.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

This despite the fact that they are practically celebrities and there is no reason to hide it.  In fact, why not hold a blow out funeral with a nice pyre?

Unless someone thinks of a reason to hide it.  Like maybe keeping options open.  Come on, dude!  You're just talking past me because you hate the theory.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

And then Illyrio shows up with a 5 year old substitute. 

 

Or whatever age GRRM deems plausible.  If the theory is correct, GRRM will supply the details, not me.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

And he is perfectly willing to wait the 8-10 years necessary for her to be useful because he was simply planning on sitting on his ass while Robert consolidated power.

And how long has he been plotting to put Young Griff on the throne?  Seems to me that you are so eager to hate on my theory that your blunderbuss attacks are hitting the actual text.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

Is any of this actually making sense?  Because it sure doesn't to me. 

That's fine dude.  If you find a theory you hate completely unconvincing, then I guess there is nothing for you to get upset about.

I'm not upset by implausible theories, because I don't think they will happen.  But I am also open the the possibility that GRRM will write something I hate.

7 hours ago, Nevets said:

If a murky timeline and a mysterious lemon tree is the biggest criticism you can find for what is generally known and believed, I'll happily take it over this nonsense.

Ah.  That is the crux of you beef with me.  I have committed heresy.  I have sinned against a popular fan opinion.

But seriously, dude.  If you were really 100% sure, in your heart of hearts that the standard variant of R+L=J were THE correct theory, why would alternate theories bother you so much?   You'd just be smug in the conviction that you were right and they were wrong; and you would look forward in comfortable anticipation to gloating when the final books come out. 

Again, my "murky timeline" is not evidence.  It is merely a response to a challenge.  I provided my list of 35 clues earlier in the thread.

Edited July 16, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Alester Florent]

7 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

But seriously, dude.  If you were really 100% sure, in your heart of hearts that the standard variant of R+L=J were THE correct theory, why would alternate theories bother you so much?   You'd just be smug in the conviction that you were right and they were wrong; and you would look forward in comfortable anticipation to gloating when the final books come out.

For essentially the same reason that people take issue with any crackpot conspiracy theory; for instance, why those who are 100% convinced that anthropogenic climate change is real still take issue with people on the internet calling it a hoax. Badly reasoned, badly evidenced, contrarian takes and theories waste people's time and take up space in the public debating sphere that could be more usefully used for other things.

Worse, they can contaminate the idea-space, winning over the impressionable and/or underinformed, spawning more radical and even worse takes and theories, and by their mere existence and propagation, lower the quality of debate, degrade the utility of education and damage people's ability to interpret information critically and reason usefully in general. Crackpot conspiracy theories, taken seriously, are not just pointless, they are dangerous.

The stakes here are obviously pretty low. If we are persuaded that climate change isn't real and fail to take necessary action, everyone dies (pace arguments that it's already too late). If we are persuaded that R+L=J isn't right and it is, well, I might expect some members of the forum to perform public apologies and/or Cersei-esque walks of shame, but that's about it.

 

[Gilbert Green]

46 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

For essentially the same reason that people take issue with any crackpot conspiracy theory; for instance, why those who are 100% convinced that anthropogenic climate change is real still take issue with people on the internet calling it a hoax. Badly reasoned, badly evidenced, contrarian takes and theories waste people's time and take up space in the public debating sphere that could be more usefully used for other things.

Worse, they can contaminate the idea-space, winning over the impressionable and/or underinformed, spawning more radical and even worse takes and theories, and by their mere existence and propagation, lower the quality of debate, degrade the utility of education and damage people's ability to interpret information critically and reason usefully in general. Crackpot conspiracy theories, taken seriously, are not just pointless, they are dangerous.

Wow, man.  Just wow.  The lemonhate is strong in this one.

49 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

The stakes here are obviously pretty low.

Right.   So what was the above rant about?   If the thread does not interest you, ignore it.

51 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

If we are persuaded that R+L=J isn't right and it is, well, I might expect some members of the forum to perform public apologies and/or Cersei-esque walks of shame, but that's about it.

I don't expect to have any trouble admitting that certain theories were wrong, if they prove to be wrong. 

Not sure about some other people. 

BTW, I subscribe to R+L=J, albeit a non-standard variant that actually fits the timeline evidence.

[SaffronLady]

18 hours ago, Hippocras said:

So many generations have passed, with may marriages to mothers who were not Daynes. So one by no means excludes the other. House Baratheon descends from Storm Kings AND Targaryens. etc.

We do have a rather pointed comment that could be interpreted both ways though. Regarding the "Valyrian" looks of the Daynes, 

Quote

Their purple eyes do not necessarily indicate Valyrian descent according to George R. R. Martin.

So it may turn out that the "Valyrian" looking House Dayne and their fake Lightbringer were red herrings planted very far back, or it may turn out the Daynes are linked to a head of the dragon.

[LynnS]

Here's an idea - let's not contaminate the idea space with personal politics.  That's supposed to be confined to the politics threads on the General Forum.   The idea space should include both critical thinking and creative thinking without trying to shut people down over our own theory preferences.  I personally don't care who is right or wrong.  I just want to know where it goes.  I won't be doing any grovelling or expecting anyone else to grovel after the fact.  I find that toxic and unworthy.

[Gilbert Green]

7 hours ago, LynnS said:

Here's an idea - let's not contaminate the idea space with personal politics.  That's supposed to be confined to the politics threads on the General Forum.   The idea space should include both critical thinking and creative thinking without trying to shut people down over our own theory preferences.  I personally don't care who is right or wrong.  I just want to know where it goes.  I won't be doing any grovelling or expecting anyone else to grovel after the fact.  I find that toxic and unworthy.

I think it is, or could be, a fun game to keep track of our theory predictions for posterity.  A little gloating when one if proven right about a fan theory would not be a terrible thing.  Being wrong about a fan theory would not be a terrible shame either.  I can't think why I would have trouble confessing such a wrong.  It is not as though I have insulted my adversaries or done anything too terrible.

In the end, the only people who will have anything to be ashamed of are those who called for the censorship of others or were otherwise abusive.  But it goes without saying that such will never admit they were wrong. 

As for me, I would love to be able to congratulate those who went on record and guessed correctly.

[Gilbert Green]

22 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Lyanna was not abducted right after the tournament. She was abducted "the next year". The timeline in question does not start with the tournament, it starts with the timing of when Brandon's family were all travelling to Riverrun for his wedding, which was right after his duel with Littlefinger in (must be VERY) early 282.

It is interesting though that the timeline does seem to suggest that Brandon was not betrothed to Catelyn until beginning of 282, so at least a few months after the tournament. Which does throw a wrench in things regarding his availability during the tournament at Harrenhal.

EDIT: Nope, scratch that. Pretty sure the betrothals of both Brandon and Lyanna were earlier.

Well, maybe you need to dig up that quote.  I doubt you'll be able to find it.  Memory plays tricks on me, and I'm guessing it's playing tricks on you now.

Always helpful to keep track of thing like Brandon's duel with LF, etc., and work them into a functional timeline.  But I don't have any strong opinions as where to put it.  I vaguely recall there was some kind of unresolveable discrepancy involving LF's age at the time.

[LynnS]

14 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

As for me, I would love to be able to congratulate those who went on record and guessed correctly.

Sure, kindness and generosity of spirit are preferable.

[Mourning Star]

On 7/15/2023 at 8:11 AM, Hippocras said:

Can't find where I read it, but even if I am wrong about late 282 I still gave a range, and early 283 is still within that range. Even if Rhaegar and Lyanna had a full year together, it was not more than that.

It might well have been more than that, but if you have quotes to the contrary I'm always open to reading them.

On 7/15/2023 at 8:11 AM, Hippocras said:

The timeline is generally fuzzy but there is nothing particularly off about it that requires alternate explanations for Jon's age and identity or Daenaerys's age and identity. The generally accepted version for both is entirely plausible.

The timeline is fuzzy.

The oft quoted GRRM comment about Jon and Dany being 8-9 months apart is difficult to impossible to fit into any timeline where Ned would have to be present both at the Sack of King's Landing (9 months before Rhaella gives birth) and the Tower of Joy at basically the same time (if not ToJ first).

On 7/15/2023 at 8:11 AM, Hippocras said:

I really don't think a 12 month window is enough to consider it a reasonable proposition that Lyanna had 2 pregnancies.

Again, it isn't two full pregnancies in 12 months, just a pregnancy and a conception. I know multiple people in real life for whom this is true.

On 7/15/2023 at 8:11 AM, Hippocras said:

Generally children born in consecutive calendar years to the same mother are not actually 12 months apart.

Nobody suggested every event in ASoIaF is normal. Siblings born in the same calendar year are entirely possible in real life.

23 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Lyanna was not abducted right after the tournament. She was abducted "the next year". The timeline in question does not start with the tournament, it starts with the timing of when Brandon's family were all travelling to Riverrun for his wedding, which was right after his duel with Littlefinger in (must be VERY) early 282.

"Right after" is a hard amount of time to define, but we are talking about two months, not a year.

The Tourney at Harrenhall was during the "false spring" of 281, during the last two months of the year.

Rhaegar took to the road right at the start of 282.

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance. On the last day of the year, snow began to fall upon King's Landing, and a crust of ice formed atop the Blackwater Rush. The snowfall continued off and on for the best part of a fortnight, by which time the Blackwater was hard frozen, and icicles draped the roofs and gutters of every tower in the city.
As cold winds hammered the city, King Aerys II turned to his pyromancers, charging them to drive the winter off with their magics. Huge green fires burned along the walls of the Red Keep for a moon's turn. Prince Rhaegar was not in the city to observe them, however. Nor could he be found in Dragonstone with Princess Elia and their young son, Aegon. With the coming of the new year, the crown prince had taken to the road with half a dozen of his closest friends and confidants, on a journey that would ultimately lead him back to the riverlands. Not ten leagues from Harrenhal, Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark of Winterfell, and carried her off, lighting a fire that would consume his house and kin and all those he loved—and half the realm besides.

On 7/15/2023 at 1:46 PM, Hippocras said:

@Gilbert Green

Firt point: The Tourney at Harrenhal was about a year before Lyanna's abduction, your timeline is too short there. Again, I don't have good resources for quote finding, but "the next year" is I believe what it said.

I do not know how you can reconcile this statement with the quote above. I think you conflating being in the next calendar year with being a year later.

Two months is a more reasonable ballpark from the Tourney to Lyanna's disappearance, with new years day occurring between the events.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Mourning Star

[Alester Florent]

8 hours ago, LynnS said:

Here's an idea - let's not contaminate the idea space with personal politics.  That's supposed to be confined to the politics threads on the General Forum.  

Has anyone said anything political?

Quote

The idea space should include both critical thinking and creative thinking without trying to shut people down over our own theory preferences. 

That's fine. What happened here is that someone pulled the "you're only criticizing my amazing theory because you're insecure about your own" card, which is, in itself, an attempt to shut down discussion. And that's not what's going on. People take issue with bad theories because they're bad, not because they're insecure about their own theories.

And where a theory, or rather, the defence of a theory, is not just bad on its own terms but chock full of logical fallacies, poor reasoning, "well we don't know so all opinions are equally valid" approaches, and dismissing criticisim as simple "hating", I think an acceptance of that is harmful in general. Albeit on a small scale in this instance, but it is still a problem for society that people are thinking that way and if that thinking is left unchallenged they will continue to do so.

Now, I don't think anyone expects to really make a difference to anything that matters by arguing about it here, but I think it goes some way to explain why people feel the need to challenge things they disagree with on this forum rather than just ignoring them.

Quote

I personally don't care who is right or wrong.  I just want to know where it goes.  I won't be doing any grovelling or expecting anyone else to grovel after the fact.  I find that toxic and unworthy.

I for one care deeply. If someone's theories are shown to be wrong, I'll be expecting pillorying, flagellation, and in some cases, honourable suicide.

[Gilbert Green]

46 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Has anyone said anything political?

Someone did a cut-and-paste pro-censorship rant invoking the menace of climate change.  Which, whether political or not, certainly has no relevance to the topic at hand.

46 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

That's fine. What happened here is that someone pulled the "you're only criticizing my amazing theory because you're insecure about your own" card, which is, in itself, an attempt to shut down discussion.

Nobody said anything even remotely like that.  But I can guess what words you are twisting. 

46 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

And that's not what's going on. People take issue with bad theories because they're bad, not because they're insecure about their own theories.

That's fine.  Bring on the rational civil discussion and criticism.

46 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

And where a theory, or rather, the defence of a theory, is not just bad on its own terms but chock full of logical fallacies, poor reasoning, "well we don't know so all opinions are equally valid" approaches, and dismissing criticisim as simple "hating", I think an acceptance of that is harmful in general.

I don't recall anyone in this thread taking the view that "all opinions are equally valid".   Nor did I dismiss criticism as "hating".  At worst, I referred to hating as hating.  When rational arguments were presented, I have responded accordingly.  Try me. 

But if you launch a guilt-by-association smear campaign to connect me with those bad people who are destroying the planet, then I'm going to put your argument in the "hatorade" category; along with the "we outnumber you so there" argument.

46 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Now, I don't think anyone expects to really make a difference to anything that matters by arguing about it here, but I think it goes some way to explain why people feel the need to challenge things they disagree with on this forum rather than just ignoring them.

Try the rational criticism approach, rather than the mob-tactics social media pile-on approach.  Just a suggestion.

Saying that you must use bully tactics, but in good cause because climate change, makes you look like a hater.  And, beyond that, does not look too rational.

46 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

I for one care deeply. If someone's theories are shown to be wrong, I'll be expecting pillorying, flagellation, and in some cases, honourable suicide.

Suicide is not honorable.  Don't do it kids.  Don't listen to the haters.

Edited July 17, 2023 by Gilbert Green