What is compelling about having Daenerys be someone other than the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella?

[Hippocras]

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I don’t particularly view Dany as either good or evil.  I’m more interested in what makes her historically unique in the story.

We’ve already had dragon riders, Aegon and his two sisters rode dragons much larger and more powerful than Dany’s three.  Even despite this they were never able to conquer Dorne, or even destroy Dorne.

We’ve already had dragons hatching.  The Dance dealt with a war of dragons hatched on Westeros of far greater numbers than Dany could currently bring to Westeros.  Despite this war, Westeros was not laid to waste.

So I agree that Dany does represent a possible apocalypse by fire, but why would she represent this as opposed to Aegon or the other dragon riding/hatching Targaryens.

My guess is that it revolves around Dany’s hatching of petrified eggs.  Waking stone dragons.  It appears to be one of the ancient Asshai mysteries concerning Azor Ahai.  I think it’s why Quaithe was urging Dany to go to Asshai (and yes, I think it’s fairly unambiguous that’s where she wanted Dany to go).  I think the Shadowbinders want to wake the thousands of petrified dragon eggs that lay in the Shadow outside of Asshai.  I think Dany is the key to that.

If you look at Bran’s coma vision, Bran sees the Free Cities, then the Dothraki Sea, than the cities on the Jade Sea.  Bran is basically following Dany’s path in Essos.  The vision ends in Asshai with dragons stirring beneath the sunrise.  

I think that is the ultimate threat that Dany represents.  Despite all the blood mages and shadow binders in Asshai they can’t hatch the petrified dragon eggs.  They ultimately need Dany.  Which is why I believe if Dany’s journey to Westeros doesn’t turn out how she anticipates, Quaithe’s urging for Dany to “remember who she is” may hit home.  I think Quaithe is urging Dany to remember her most important role, Mother of Dragons.  When Quaithe comes across Dany in Qarth, that’s the first question Quaithe asks of Dany, “are you the Mother of Dragons”?

When Dany comes to that realization, I think that’s when she truly becomes a threat.  Someone that can bring along an apocalypse by fire.

Fair enough.

Well, if Dany's official story is true then she was conceived by fire sacrifice. And not just of anyone: of Starks. Starks have been the frontline defense against the Night King for millennia. Sacrificing Starks (who probably have some kind of link to the Night King) by fire creates "cosmic imbalance" if you will. This is one of the main reasons I think she is probably exactly who she thinks she is. I have trouble thinking of any alternate identity for Dany that fits as well.

As for her being more special than the Conqueror or anyone else; I am not sure she needs to be. I think being Mother of Dragons is NOT the same thing as being TPTWP.  Fire and blood magic out of control and unleashed by Dany and her ideological, black and white, with her or against her approach is enough. She brought back dragons. Wildfire is now easier to make and much more potent. Many other aspects of blood magic are also now stronger and more insidious. She is going to burn her way across Essos on the way to Westeros, and we are going to root for her because she is "only" burning slavers. And all the while she is going to become more and more of a tyrant. It is possible she will unleash forces that were also responsible for the Doom of Valyria in her certainty about her way being always right and good.

It is not her who needs to be the most special Targaryen ever. She just needs to be a Targaryen who was born at the right time, under special circumstances. The one who DOES need to be special is the one who brings BALANCE to it all. The one who was born of the union of ice and fire. But Dany does not bring balance. She is entirely on the side of fire.

Edited July 11, 2023 by Hippocras

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I agree.  While I think the idea that Dany may be a changeling for Viserys’ sister, someone who’s perceived worth was only that she could pass for a Targaryen Princess to be used as coin for Viserys to obtain an army, has merit, I’m wary of the soap opera aspects of making her the daughter of Rhaegar or Eddard or Brandon or fill in the blank.

I am not aware of having any particular bias towards transforming ASOIAF into a corny soap opera.  As far as I understand myself, I am simply following what look to me like clues.  But I will admit that corny soap opera elements don't bother me particularly.  Maybe I just don't take ASOIAF seriously enough.

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

My suspicion is that George’s obsession with brothels in the story may have an underlying purpose.  If one was trying to reunite bloodlines of people that could hatch and ride dragons, the easiest way to do this is through the brothels.  The bloodline of the last Targaryen dragon riders split off into House Velaryon, House Plumm, House Blackfyre, “House” Longwater etc.  It would be politically untenable to try to reunite these bloodlines through royal marriages.  However, it would be much easier to do so in the brothels frequented by these royals.  If I had to guess, that’s how Dany may have come about.  Someone’s attempt to reunite dragon bloodlines through the brothels.  (Marwyn seems a good suspect perhaps)

Here's where I confess bias.  I don't WANT that to be true.

But if I try to set aside my bias, I still don't see too many clues pointing to it.  Other than GRRM having an obsession with brothels, which you are definitely right about.

I am also trying and failing to wrap my mind around the logistics and practicality of the scheme.  History is not exactly rife with real-world examples of brothel human breeding schemes.  If a girl has good genes to pass on, there are better ways.  Marriage is best; affairs with chosen men are second best; prostitution third best; and brothels absolutely bottom-of-the-barrel.

Aerys did not visit brothels.  He had a fetish for married noblewomen. 

Rhaegar did not visit brothels.  But he did chase after Lyanna and (possibly, maybe) Ashara.

Rhaella was always mindful of her duty.  Except maybe for Bonifer.

King Robert definitely did visit brothels.  And something may come of that.  But King Robert is only distantly a Targaryen.  And not a good candidate for Dany's real father.

These are the sort of clues we seem to have.

I also have a bias (if you want to call it that) in favor of story threads coming together instead of branching out in new directions.  Having Dany's mom be a prostitute is fine if it brings story threads together.  But is her mom a prostitute we have ever heard of?  Or will the twist merely be that she was a "prostitute" and therefore "nobody"? (ugh!)

[Craving Peaches]

1 minute ago, Gilbert Green said:

History is not exactly rife with real-world examples of brothel human breeding schemes. 

If there is any 'breeding scheme', I would think it was what Jaehaerys was trying to do based on the Wood's Witch prediction to produce the Prince that was Promised, or Rhaegar having a child with Lyanna if he did so. I don't think a brothel-based breeding scheme could function, because prostitutes probably frequently take moon tea or something else so they don't get pregnant and can continue working. Even if they weren't, it would be hard to ensure the child was the result of a desired partner. Someone would have to be willing to pay a prostitute to have a child with X and then not do 'work' for anyone else until they'd had the child. Theoretically, I suppose someone could do this if they had enough money, but then why not just buy the prostitutes and breed them as part of one's own 'program', as we see at least one Ghiscari commander do with slave soldiers? And this 'breeding program' looks to be a Multi-Generation affair, so multiple people need to have enough money and be willing to invest it in this scheme. And even if you manage to produce a dragon rider, there might not be any dragons. The rider could turn against you once they have a dragon.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

I am not aware of having any particular bias towards transforming ASOIAF into a corny soap opera.  As far as I understand myself, I am simply following what look to me like clues.  But I will admit that corny soap opera elements don't bother me particularly.  Maybe I just don't take ASOIAF seriously enough.

Don’t take offense at my description.  I’m not saying you’re wrong, I’m just saying I’m not particularly interested in that particular rabbit hole.  At least not for Daenerys.  

Undoubtably there was some tryst involving Ashara Dayne.  There was some tryst involving Lyanna.  These trysts may very well involve Rhaegar’s chasing of prophecy, whether or not Rhaegar was directly involved in either woman’s conception.

My biggest problem is Dany being sold away if she were either the child of Ashara or Lyanna.  

If Dany was that much of a commodity, I think we’re going to find that her birth was of humbler origins.

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

Aerys did not visit brothels.  He had a fetish for married noblewomen.

Not entirely:

Quote

Aerys Targaryen and Tywin Lannister made for an unlikely partnership, it must be said. The young king was lively and active in the early years of his reign. He loved music, dancing, and masked balls, and was exceedingly fond of young women, filling his court with fair maidens from every corner of the realm. Some say he had as many mistresses as his ancestor Aegon the Unworthy (a most unlikely assertion given all we know of that monarch). Unlike Aegon IV, however, Aerys II always seemed to lose interest in his lovers quickly. Many lasted no longer than a fortnight and few as long as half a year.

It’s never really detailed whether any of these young maidens ever conceived or what their parents would have done with the product of those conceptions.

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

Rhaegar did not visit brothels.  But he did chase after Lyanna and (possibly, maybe) Ashara.

We know that Eddard believes that Rhaegar didn’t visit brothels.  Of course Eddard seemed to be a really bad judge of the character of others.  But practically, yes Rhaegar probably didn’t unless it was for a specific purpose involving the prophecy he was chasing.  

 

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

King Robert definitely did visit brothels.  And something may come of that.  But King Robert is only distantly a Targaryen.  And not a good candidate for Dany's real father.

I agree.

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

I also have a bias (if you want to call it that) in favor of story threads coming together instead of branching out in new directions.  Having Dany's mom be a prostitute is fine if it brings story threads together.  But is her mom a prostitute we have ever heard of?  Or will the twist merely be that she was a "prostitute" and therefore "nobody"? (ugh

This is a valid criticism.  We don’t have enough information at this time.  So yes, the story would have to branch out further.  So I understand the hesitancy there.  

What we do know is that Aerys in his youth was very promiscuous, possibly involving many women.  So the chances of his having one or more bastards are very high.

We know that Lucerys Velaryon had at least one bastard, Aurane Waters.  What’s interesting about Auran is that while Lucerys legal son and heir was described as having fair hair, Lucerys’ bastard was described as having similar hair as Rhaegar Targaryen.

Finally we know that there was a secret tunnel from the Hand’s chamber to Chataya’s brothel built at the time that Tywin was the Hand of Aerys.  Now whether this was just to satisfy Tywin’s appetites or not we don’t know.  He could also have been supplying Aerys with girls behind the queen’s back to satisfy Aerys’ prodigious appetite.  But yes, the story would need to branch out further.

I would note however, the presence of a Marei in Chataya’s brothel, a silvery gold haired, porcelain skinned, prostitute with green eyes.

 

Edited July 11, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Gilbert Green]

59 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

My biggest problem is Dany being sold away if she were either the child of Ashara or Lyanna.  

If Dany was that much of a commodity, I think we’re going to find that her birth was of humbler origins.

The only way to hide a Targaryen-featured child from babykiller Robert is to pretend she IS of humbler origins.  You don't tell the child, and you don't tell the servants.

So this makes no difference to the servant or vassal who nabs her and sells her to a sea captain.  As far as he knows, she IS of humbler origin.  If he knew how important she was, he would nab her and take her to King Robert.

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Not entirely:

Aerys Targaryen and Tywin Lannister made for an unlikely partnership, it must be said. The young king was lively and active in the early years of his reign. He loved music, dancing, and masked balls, and was exceedingly fond of young women, filling his court with fair maidens from every corner of the realm. Some say he had as many mistresses as his ancestor Aegon the Unworthy (a most unlikely assertion given all we know of that monarch). Unlike Aegon IV, however, Aerys II always seemed to lose interest in his lovers quickly. Many lasted no longer than a fortnight and few as long as half a year.

It’s never really detailed whether any of these young maidens ever conceived or what their parents would have done with the product of those conceptions.

IMHO the maester who wrote this is soft-peddling an extremely scandalous situation that is sensitive to just about every noble family in the realm.  Yes, Aerys filled his court with young women (of the nobility, though our maester soft-pedals that too).  Yes, some of the young women who attended his court and his masked balls (but not the ones he was mainly interested in) were maidens.  Yes, he had many affairs (but not with the maidens).  And perhaps one reason we don't hear of any of his lovers having out-of-wedlock births, is because all of them were already in wedlock.

In any event there is still no mention of brothels.  And we are told his randy period of cheating on Rhaella ended before the birth of Viserys.

[Alester Florent]

8 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Well, if Dany's official story is true then she was conceived by fire sacrifice. And not just of anyone: of Starks. Starks have been the frontline defense against the Night King for millennia. Sacrificing Starks (who probably have some kind of link to the Night King) by fire creates "cosmic imbalance" if you will. This is one of the main reasons I think she is probably exactly who she thinks she is. I have trouble thinking of any alternate identity for Dany that fits as well.

I hadn't thought of that. Makes sense to me. Sold.

I will however point out that the "Night King" as leader/hivemind hub/unstoppable force of the Others/WW is entirely a show thing. There is no mention of such a character, or of a leader of the Others, in the books. There is a Night's King, who was a legendary early commander of the Night's Watch who was (after his overthrow) discovered to have been making sacrifices to the Others, but was not their leader or even one of them. GRRM himself has said that the Night's King (he was specific about the form) is a legendary figure like Bran the Builder, with the associated implication that he is long gone.

[Gilbert Green]

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Catelyn was bitter towards Jon for her entire marriage to Ned because he brought home a child that was conceived AFTER or only VERY shortly before she married him.

Cat was not upset about that aspect at all, and says so in her own thoughts.  She was upset because Ned brought Jon to Winterfell.

Ned is the one who is upset that he dishonored Cat.  At least that's what he tells King Robert. And yes, one could reasonably guess that this means that Ned dishonored Cat, at the earliest, some time after Brandon's death, since it was after Brandon's death that Ned got pledged to Cat.  By Harwin's logic anyway, Ned could not have dishonored Cat at Harrenhal with Ashara, because Ned and Cat were not pledged yet.

But (assuming Ned is telling the truth at all) he is talking about the time that Ned had sex with Wylla, and not the time that Rhaegar had sex with Lyanna.

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

A child conceived more than 4 months before the wedding, when she was still betrothed to Brandon, was simply not a problem for her pride and honour and would not have inspired so much resentment. Rob was conceived on their wedding night. Ergo, Jon is no more than 4 months older that Rob and was born, as he was in 283.

I more or less agree with this conclusion, with one caveat:  it refers to Jon's cover-story nameday as Wylla's child. 

Jon's actual birthday, under his true identity, could be some months earlier, making Jon some months older.

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Are you a parent?

If I were, it would not make me an expert, except on my own children.  You neither.  You and I are anonymous people on the internet, discussing a book written by an author who never had children.  Let's keep it on that level.

19 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Small age differences are very obvious in small children. Within the same class at school, the kids born in the later part of the cohort are distinctly less mature and farther back in their physical development than those born at the beginning. Differences mean nothing later in life, but in children under 5 years old, it is quite noticeable.

A quick glance at a percentile height/weight distribution chart for children tells me that some 1-year olds are taller and heavier than some 2 year olds, and it isn't even that rare.

I don't think Cat would have traveled with a newborn.  Plausibly, she arrived at Winterfell when Robb was (say) 14 months old. 

Jon was already there.  Let's say his official (fake) birthday was 2 months before Robb's, or something like that.  Just a guess, of course.  But on the whole I find the argument that Jon's nameday comes first rather stronger than the arguments that Robb's nameday comes first.

Cat is evidently prepared to doubt this, as she gives credence to the possibility that Jon was conceived at Harrenhall, as per the Winterfell whispers.  This would (I guess) make Jon's actual age about a year older than Robb, and (I guess) about 10 months older than his official nameday.  Assuming the Winterfell whispers are true.  Which I guess they are not.

But if he were conceived ... not with Wylla, and not at Harrenhall ... but by Rhaegar with Lyanna in an earlier pregnancy, then the truth would plausibly lie between these two extremes.   Which is what I would guess -- that Jon is not 10 months older than his cover-age, but maybe four or five months older.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Nevets]

4 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Cat was not upset about that aspect at all, and says so in her own thoughts.  She was upset because Ned brought Jon to Winterfell.

Ned is the one who is upset that he dishonored Cat.  At least that's what he tells King Robert. And yes, one could reasonably guess that this means that Ned dishonored Cat, at the earliest, some time after Brandon's death, since it was after Brandon's death that Jon got pledged to Cat.  By Harwin's logic anyway, Ned could not have dishonored Cat at Harrenhal with Ashara, because Ned and Cat were not pledged yet.

But (assuming Ned is telling the truth at all) he is talking about the time that Ned had sex with Wylla, and not the time that Rhaegar had sex with Lyanna.

I more or less agree with this conclusion, with one caveat:  it refers to Jon's cover-story nameday as Wylla's child. 

Jon's actual birthday, under his true identity, could be some months earlier, making Jon some months older.

If I were, it would not make me an expert, except on my own children.  You neither.  You and I are anonymous people on the internet, discussing a book written by an author who never had children.  Let's keep it on that level.

A quick glance at a percentile height/weight distribution chart for children tells me that some 1-year olds are taller and heavier than some 2 year olds, and it isn't even that rare.

I don't think Cat would have traveled with a newborn.  Plausibly, she arrived at Winterfell when Robb was (say) 14 months old. 

Jon was already there.  Let's say his official (fake) birthday was 2 months before Robb's, or something like that.

Cat is evidently prepared to doubt this, as she gives credence to the possibility that Jon was conceived at Harrenhall, as per the Winterfell whispers.  This would (I guess) make Jon's actual age about a year older than Robb, and (I guess) about 10 months older than his official nameday.  Assuming it were true.  Which I guess it is not.

But if he were conceived ... not with Wylla, and not at Harrenhall ... but by Rhaegar with Lyanna in an earlier pregnancy, then the truth would plausibly lie between these two extremes.   Which is what I would guess -- that Jon is not 10 months older than his cover-age, but maybe four or five months older.

Catelyn clearly states in her POV that she and Ned spent their first year apart.  Ned left right after the wedding.  Robb was born 9 months later.  Even if we give leeway on the year, I don't see Robb being any older than 6 months on arrival at Winterfell.  Jon was supposedly born after Robb.  If he was born from an earlier pregnancy, he would around 9 months older.  Claiming a 15 month old as 6 months isn't going to fly.  Especially with another 6 month old to compare him to.

[Gilbert Green]

41 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Catelyn clearly states in her POV that she and Ned spent their first year apart.  Ned left right after the wedding.  Robb was born 9 months later.  Even if we give leeway on the year, I don't see Robb being any older than 6 months on arrival at Winterfell.  Jon was supposedly born after Robb.  If he was born from an earlier pregnancy, he would around 9 months older.  Claiming a 15 month old as 6 months isn't going to fly.  Especially with another 6 month old to compare him to.

Context.

Cat is at Riverrun, with a babe at her breast, when she learns (by raven I guess) that Ned has sired a bastard.  She describes her reaction.  She is not surprised.  She is not bothered.  Man's needs & crap.  After all "they had spent that year apart".    Pluperfect tense -- "had spent".  Cat, having just heard the news, is thinking back over the previous year -- the year in which (she guesses) Ned presumably sired the bastard.  And she is explaining why she is not (at this point) bothered in the least.

LATER when the wars are finally over she goes to Winterfell and finds that her rotter of a husband has actually brought the bastard brat to live with him.  NOW she is bothered.  How much later does this happen?  The text does not say.

Insist on your interpretation if you like.  But you will only make coherent timelines of Robert's Rebellion impossible.

I don't buy the argument, based on this passage, that Robb's nameday comes before Jon's nameday.  She is only describing her initial reaction to news.  And the news she got was that Ned has sired a bastard on a girl he picked up on campaign, with no specifics as to timing.  Ned had been on campaign both before and after her marriage.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Hippocras]

8 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I hadn't thought of that. Makes sense to me. Sold.

I will however point out that the "Night King" as leader/hivemind hub/unstoppable force of the Others/WW is entirely a show thing. There is no mention of such a character, or of a leader of the Others, in the books. There is a Night's King, who was a legendary early commander of the Night's Watch who was (after his overthrow) discovered to have been making sacrifices to the Others, but was not their leader or even one of them. GRRM himself has said that the Night's King (he was specific about the form) is a legendary figure like Bran the Builder, with the associated implication that he is long gone.

Sure, I agree actually. I doubt the Night King is a factor in the same way. But it is more about meta forces of Ice magic versus Fire magic (both are probably forms of blood magic) and Ice is clearly associated with memory and vendetta in a way that makes any sort of figurehead arguably unnecessary. Dany is a charismatic leader and that charisma and passion fits with fire magic in a way that it probably would not with Ice magic. So just because they are opposing forces, doesn't mean they work in a way that has a direct corresponding counterpart.

[Hippocras]

7 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Cat was not upset about that aspect at all, and says so in her own thoughts.  She was upset because Ned brought Jon to Winterfell.

She was upset that he brought Jon to Winterfell because it was an affont to her, personally. Which is only true if the child was clearly conceived after Brandon's death in 282, which marked the beginning of her very short betrothal to Ned. A child conceived before Brandon died was not an insult to her as Ned's wife or soon-to-be wife. 

 

  

7 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

A quick glance at a percentile height/weight distribution chart for children tells me that some 1-year olds are taller and heavier than some 2 year olds, and it isn't even that rare.

I don't think Cat would have traveled with a newborn.  Plausibly, she arrived at Winterfell when Robb was (say) 14 months old. 

Jon was already there.  Let's say his official (fake) birthday was 2 months before Robb's, or something like that.  Just a guess, of course.  But on the whole I find the argument that Jon's nameday comes first rather stronger than the arguments that Robb's nameday comes first.

Cat is evidently prepared to doubt this, as she gives credence to the possibility that Jon was conceived at Harrenhall, as per the Winterfell whispers.  This would (I guess) make Jon's actual age about a year older than Robb, and (I guess) about 10 months older than his official nameday.  Assuming the Winterfell whispers are true.  Which I guess they are not.

But if he were conceived ... not with Wylla, and not at Harrenhall ... but by Rhaegar with Lyanna in an earlier pregnancy, then the truth would plausibly lie between these two extremes.   Which is what I would guess -- that Jon is not 10 months older than his cover-age, but maybe four or five months older.

The weight and height of children has nothing to do with my point. Physical development is things like motor skills, vision development, capacity to control time and place of urination. Any parent does not know only their own child, they also know something of all the children their child attends daycare with or has playdates with, and eventually, goes to school with. The science on differential development between those born earlier and later in the same class is not just my opinion. It is one reason why, for example, ADHD is often (erroneously) diagnosed more in kids born later in the cohort. As for George's experience with children - you assume too much. Plenty of people without children of their own still know enough to know that noone would mistake a 2 year old for a 1 year old. Especially not someone who was a mother of a child of her own.

Catelyn is prepared to believe Jon was Ashara's child. That says nothing at all about the timing. Believing he may have been Ashara's child is not the same thing as believing he was conceived at Harrenhal. What Catelyn CLEARLY believes, is that Jon was conceived after Brandon's death,while Ned was off fighting the war. A child conceived when Catelyn was expecting to marry Brandon and Ned was free to marry whomever he wished is not a cause for insult or dishonour.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Hippocras

[Frey family reunion]

16 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

IMHO the maester who wrote this is soft-peddling an extremely scandalous situation that is sensitive to just about every noble family in the realm.  Yes, Aerys filled his court with young women (of the nobility, though our maester soft-pedals that too).  Yes, some of the young women who attended his court and his masked balls (but not the ones he was mainly interested in) were maidens.  Yes, he had many affairs (but not with the maidens).  And perhaps one reason we don't hear of any of his lovers having out-of-wedlock births, is because all of them were already in wedlock.

In any event there is still no mention of brothels.  And we are told his randy period of cheating on Rhaella ended before the birth of Viserys.

It seems fairly matter of fact that Aerys when he was younger was bedding many young women at court.  My takeaway is that this predated any dalliances he would have had with any of the Queen's ladies.  It seems Aerys had quite the libido, and I don't see any reason why that libido only extends to married women.  That's generally not how it works in the real world either.    And this type of behavior tends to lead to bastards, whether or not a maester chooses on reporting about them. 

Generally, unless the bastard becomes a problem no one really cares about the unacknowledged bastards.

And of course this isn't unique to Aerys.  In addition to Aegon IV, Fire and Blood tells of numerous other Targaryen bastards running around King's Landing.

As for the brothels, I agree we need more information.  But Aerys doesn't have to visit brothels for his bloodines to end up in brothels.  The question is whether any of Aerys bastards ends up in the brothels.  

Also a lot of it may depend on where George is going with the secret tunnel from the Hand's tower to Chataya's brothel.  That's a direct line where noble and prostitute bloodlines could intermingle.

So if George just added this tidbit to suggest that Tywin is a hypocrite, then maybe that's all there is to it.  But it does seem a little suspect that the Hand of the King could or would buidl such a tunnel without the King's permission.  So if George wants to further pursue this tunnel as a plot point, we could be looking at a way where not just Lannister bloodlines are introduced into a brothel, especially if it turns out that Tywin used this tunnel to bring women to Aerys.

Which is why I brought up Marei, a girl with Valyrian features and green (Lannister?) eyes.  Now her features could be a description not relevant to the plot.  Or she could simply be the daughter of a Lysenean prostitute that Tywin may have bedded contributing to her green eyes.  Or maybe Tywin impregnated a prostitute that was a Targaryen bastard, perhaps one of Aerys',  And wouldn't that be ironic.   (After all it is through Tyrion's eyes that we meet Marei and George has teased Tyrion as a possibly being a product of Aerys having cuckolded Tywin).

 

 

[Sandy Clegg]

9 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

Insist on your interpretation if you like.  But you will only make coherent timelines of Robert's Rebellion impossible.

I don't buy the argument, based on this passage, that Robb's nameday comes before Jon's nameday.  She is only describing her initial reaction to news.  And the news she got was that Ned has sired a bastard on a girl he picked up on campaign, with no specifics as to timing.  Ned had been on campaign both before and after her marriage.

 

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

She was upset that he brought Jon to Winterfell because it was an affont to her, personally. Which is only true if the child was clearly conceived after Brandon's death in 282, which marked the beginning of her very short betrothal to Ned. A child conceived before Brandon died was not an insult to her as Ned's wife or soon-to-be wife. 

Reading both of these, I don't think there is a way to accurately compare Gilbert's version of Jon's birth date with Hipocras' estimation of Cat's opinions on baby sizes, from the information we are given in the books. There are just too many variables that George keeps deliberately vague. I think the baby age/size discrepancy falls more in Gilbert's favour, just because GRRM doesn't have kids and these kind of details can reasonably be waved away in fiction. Which doesn't mean I'm becoming more convinced by the daddy Rhaegar theory. I think there is some wiggle room within the time period George ascribes to Lyanna and Rahegar's time together. But it's just teetering on the verge of being not long enough. If he intended this to be 'only just plausible' then he's done a very good job of making it almost impossible. 

This is still a great theory, regardless of its veracity, as it really delves into the nitty gritty of the RR timeline, which is always useful. I think @Gilbert Green you might need to respond with an updated version with bullet points addressing all the things mentioned, as it's gotten very messy now. I hope you have one of those desk jobs that allows you the free time to post all this!  

Edited July 12, 2023 by Sandy Clegg

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, Hippocras said:

A child conceived when Catelyn was expecting to marry Brandon and Ned was free to marry whomever he wished is not a cause for insult or dishonour.

Cat's issue isn't that Ned fathered a bastard, Cat's issue is that Ned acknowledged the child, brought him to Winterfell, and very publically treats him as one of his sons.  This type of attention, in Cat's eyes, somewhat reduces the uniqueness of her children with Ned, and more importantly Cat seems to feel that Jon is a potential danger to her children's inheritence.  Cat seems especially troubled that Jon looks more like Ned than any of her children.

[Frey family reunion]

55 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Reading both of these, I don't think there is a way to accurately compare Gilbert's version of Jon's birth date with Hipocras' estimation of Cat's opinions on baby sizes, from the information we are given in the books. There are just too many variables that George keeps deliberately vague. I think the baby age/size discrepancy falls more in Gilbert's favour, just because GRRM doesn't have kids and these kind of details can reasonably be waved away in fiction. Which doesn't mean I'm becoming more convinced by the daddy Rhaegar theory. I think there is some wiggle room within the time period George ascribes to Lyanna and Rahegar's time together. But it's just teetering on the verge of being not long enough. If he intended this to be 'only just plausible' then he's done a very good job of making it almost impossible. 

It’s kind of hard to gauge everything completely on Cat’s POV, because in regards to Jon I’m not sure she’s completely rational.  

We know that there was a rumor running around Winterfell that Jon was the son of Ned and Ashara.

Cat seems to center around Ned having possibly conceived Jon after he went South of King’s Landing after the war.  That’ s so far off of possible timelines of Lyanna being the mother, that Jon’s actual age probably refutes Cat’s theory.  But it’s a convenient thought for Cat because it would definitely make Jon younger than her son Brandon.

Now there is a concurrent rumor that had circulated and made its way to Harwin, that Ned and Ashara’s dalliance occurred at the tourney of Harrenhal.  Placed next to the theory that Ashara was Jon’s mom, seems to indicate that at least some in Winterfell must have believed Jon could have been conceived during the time period of the Harrenhal tourney.  Now again, Jon’s actual age probably makes that impossible, but truth and juicy gossip rarely go hand in hand.

So my guess is that Jon’s age is probably somewhere between.  But I wouldn’t rely on Cat’s observations of Jon as an infant as proof that Jon had to have been a certain age.  I’m not sure that GRRM is treating Cat as reliable narrator when it comes to Jon.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Sandy Clegg]

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Placed next to the theory that Ashara was Jon’s mom, seems to indicate that at least some in Winterfell must have believed Jon could have been conceived during the time period of the Harrenhal tourney.  Now again, Jon’s actual age probably makes that impossible, but truth and juicy gossip rarely go hand in hand.

We do get one useful piece of information, which is that Ned clamped down hard  on this gossip of Ashara when he heard about it. It's likely that he held enough sway as an imposing figure in Winterfell that this gossip did just die away. Even Catelyn says it was the one time she was afraid of him. So it's plausible that nobody really felt inclined to dwell on it much, including Catelyn.  Which means that timeline discrepancies might go even more under the radar.

The war was finished. Everyone just wanted to get on with normal life again. Catelyn accepted Jon as Ned's bastard. She may not even have paid him much attention as a baby, being more preoccupied with raising one of her own. So who knows to what extent she compared their size/growth.

Ashara is either the key to a lot of things, or the greatest red herring ever written.

[Frey family reunion]

1 minute ago, Sandy Clegg said:

We do get one useful piece of information, which is that Ned clamped down hard  on this gossip of Ashara when he heard about it. It's likely that he held enough sway as an imposing figure in Winterfell that this gossip did just die away. Even Catelyn says it was the one time she was afraid of him. So it's plausible that nobody really felt inclined to dwell on it much, including Catelyn.  Which means that timeline discrepancies might go even more under the radar.

I’m not completely sure that it was only Ned who put a hard stop to the rumors.  Harwin seems very insistent on Arya not telling her mother what he told her.

[Gilbert Green]

9 hours ago, Hippocras said:

She was upset that he brought Jon to Winterfell because it was an affont to her, personally. Which is only true if the child was clearly conceived after Brandon's death in 282, which marked the beginning of her very short betrothal to Ned. A child conceived before Brandon died was not an insult to her as Ned's wife or soon-to-be wife. 

I see no evidence for your speculation that Cat would have felt differently about Jon being at Winterfell if only someone had told her he was conceived before Brandon's death.  Her issue is, she wants bastards treated like bastards so they are not threats to the prerogatives of her own trueborn children.  Ned is treating Jon too much like a trueborn child.  The timing of conception seems to be, for her, a marginal consideration at best. 

The fairy-tale trope of the evil stepmother exists for a reason.  Women have a psychological tendency to be not excessively fond of a husband's children from earlier unions, regardless of precise timing.

9 hours ago, Hippocras said:

The weight and height of children has nothing to do with my point. Physical development is things like motor skills, vision development, capacity to control time and place of urination.

All milestones are highly variable.  Height and weight were just a convenient example of this that involves data that can be readily collected and compared.  You have switched from arguing that Cat can tell how old Jon is by looking at him, to arguing that Cat can tell how old Jon is by monitoring his peeing habits.  And it's not even her job to care for him.  Your argument is drifting off the deep end.

Sad but true: some children grow to full adulthood without ever learning to control the time and place of their peeing habits.  And I have met them.  They will never stop wearing diapers.  And we are not within 1000 miles of anything that extreme.  We are not even in the range of 5-year old bed-wetters.  We are discussing one and two year olds.

REMINDER:  I am not even arguing for Jon actually being conceived at Harrenhall, and therefore 10 months older than his cover-nameday.  I think he is only maybe about 4 or 5 months older than his cover-nameday.

9 hours ago, Hippocras said:

As for George's experience with children - you assume too much.

I'm assuming nothing.  You're the one trying to draw narrow conclusions and basing them on assumptions.  I just want to leave the possibilities and options open.  Your the one who wants to be absolutely certain about uncertain things. 

I have no idea how much GRRM knows about children and neither do you.  That, among many other things, ought to make you uncertain.  But no.  You are determined to be certain.

REMINDER:  I am not even arguing for Jon actually being conceived at Harrenhall, and therefore 10 months older than his cover-nameday.  I think he is only maybe about 4 or 5 months older than his cover-nameday.

9 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Plenty of people without children of their own still know enough to know that noone would mistake a 2 year old for a 1 year old. Especially not someone who was a mother of a child of her own.

Having a child of your own gives you expertise in one ... count 'em ONE .... count 'em ONE example.  It give you ZERO expertise in the range of human variability.

If Catelyn were a pediatrician who saw 20 infants a day in the course of her pediatric practice, you might have a (slightly) better argument.  But if Catelyn were a such a pediatrician she would probably know something that you are trying to deny -- that children vary -- alot.

The closest Winterfell has to a pediatrician is a maester who goes around saying things like "bastards mature faster than trueborn children".

 

9 hours ago, Hippocras said:

Catelyn is prepared to believe Jon was Ashara's child. That says nothing at all about the timing. Believing he may have been Ashara's child is not the same thing as believing he was conceived at Harrenhal.

Cat does not describe the entire Ashara story as she heard it.  She is obviously leaving alot out in her brief allusions.  Otherwise, Ned's "never ask me about Jon" would be a non-sequitur.

We get a few more details about the "old Winterfell story" from Harwin.  And Harwin makes clear that there was no dishonor to Cat because it happened at Harrenhall before Ned was pledged to Cat.

I think that Harwin and Catelyn are referencing the same story.  I see no need to postulate two separate "old Winterfell stories" about Ashara.

 

9 hours ago, Hippocras said:

What Catelyn CLEARLY believes, is that Jon was conceived after Brandon's death,while Ned was off fighting the war.

I think it is fair to say that she believed or assumed this at the moment she receives the news.  This is before she arrives at Winterfell.  Before she gets upset.  Before she meets Jon.  Before she hears the "old Winterfell story" about Ashara.

The main issue here is that you are trying to use her as an authority for things outside of her knowledge.  She was not in the room when Ned got Wylla pregnant with a son; nor was she in the room when Rhaegar got Lyanna pregnant with a son.

I have already tried to agree with you that the Wylla narrative probably involves a baby that would have been conceived after Brandon's death.   But few fans entirely believe the Wylla narrative.  At least, they don't think Jon is that same baby.  He is a different baby and could be (within reason) some months older.  How many months are within reason?  Your mileage may vary.  GRRM's mileage may vary.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Gilbert Green

[Frey family reunion]

3 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

The timing of conception seems to be, for her, a marginal consideration at best. 

I'd argue that Cat does have a very strong motivation as to when people believe the conception occurred, but it's in opposition to what has been argued by @Hippocras

Cat makes an assumption that Jon was conceived after her marriage to Eddard because that scenario protects the rights of Robb and her other children.

If Jon were born first and somehow was able to contest his illigitimacy, then that puts her own children's legitimacy into question, because her marriage to Ned would have been invalid.  So Cat has convinced herself that Eddard's bastard had to have occurred after their marriage because it would safetly keep Jon illegitimate.  

It's probably the reason that she's so angry with Eddard that he won't tell her the truth of Jon's birth, and lay to rest any possibility of Jon becoming a future threat to her children's inheritance.

Edited July 12, 2023 by Frey family reunion

[Gilbert Green]

On 7/12/2023 at 8:11 AM, Frey family reunion said:

It seems fairly matter of fact that Aerys when he was younger was bedding many young women at court.  My takeaway is that this predated any dalliances he would have had with any of the Queen's ladies.  It seems Aerys had quite the libido, and I don't see any reason why that libido only extends to married women.  That's generally not how it works in the real world either.    And this type of behavior tends to lead to bastards, whether or not a maester chooses on reporting about them. 

Generally, unless the bastard becomes a problem no one really cares about the unacknowledged bastards.

Well, I can't completely rule out Aerys fathering bastards with unmarried women. 

I still think you are overlooking something important, when you assume this passage is simply being "matter of fact". 

The conceit of the World Book is that it is written by Yandel, who is terrified of saying anything that might offend Tywin.  Hence, whenever Tywin's name is mentioned in the World Book, we should be alert to the possibility of distortions and lies by omission.

Then there's the "some say" / "others say" tension in the passage.  Some say Aerys was as profligate as Aegon IV; others doubt this based on what we know about Aegon IV.  What do we know about Aegon IV?  Well, we know he left alot of bastards with unmarried women (and not just the handful he acknowledged either).  The clear implication is that we do not have such evidence for Aerys -- at least no such evidence that is even remotely comparable.  Hence the some who say and the others who doubt.

How to resolve this tension?  Well, it refers to what we already guess from the clues in the main volumes.  Yes he was profligate, but not (at least not primarily) with maidens.  He was preying on married women, and planting his progeny in other men's nests.

Yandel is not going to touch that aspect of it with a 10 foot pole.  Because it might offend Tywin. 

When Yandel here refers to the early part of Aerys' reign, he is not contrasting some later period of Aerys' reign when Aerys stopped preying on maidens and started preying on wives.  He is contrasting the later period when Aerys repented of his philandering and decided to remain faithful to Rhaella.

And he explicitly connects said "early period" with the period of his partnership with Tywin -- when Tywin was serving as Hand of the King, and Tywin (and his wife) were in King's Landing.

Aerys may have started with the wives pretty early.  The Princess of Dorne rushed home from King's Landing to join her husband in Sunspear, only to give birth to Elia "a month early".  Being seduced by the Princess of Dorne was plausibly a formative sexual experience for Aerys.   He would have been, maybe, about 12.  Which may possibly answer your objection that you cannot understand why Aerys would have a particular fetish for married women. 

Edited July 13, 2023 by Gilbert Green