Your Most Hated ASOIAF theory

[PrettyLittlePsycho]

4 hours ago, Potsk said:

You're right, that was a poor choice of argument. I should have used the Hodor reveal (confirmed by GRRM) instead. That is unquestionably time travel.

One of the more weird moments the show gave us.

I mean it´s a cave in the middle of a frozen wasteland. WTF thought "Hey, this might be a good spot to place the door I´ve been carrying around."

[Alester Florent]

10 hours ago, Gilbert Green said:

And how far to you suppose that total distance to be?  This is your argument.  Complete it.

The map in The Lands of Ice and Fire has no scale, but using the Wall as a guide, it's at a scale of approximately 1mm/10 miles. Using that scale, it is, as the crow flies, approximately 4,000 miles from the Iron Islands to Meereen, and approximately 7,700 miles from the Iron Islands to Meereen.

Euron can't sail as the crow flies, because Westeros (and Valyria) are in the way. So his quickest route (through the Smoking Sea) is more like 6,000 miles.

At a "steady" (almost flat-out) speed of 12 knots, that would work out to about 17 days each way.

That is making all the most favourable assumptions for Euron possible. And I don't think it makes sense for Euron to be zipping backwards and forwards between Slaver's Bay and the Iron Islands, logistically or narratively.

I also don't believe that, magic winds or not, the Silence can maintain top speed, day and night, for weeks at a time.

[Gilbert Green]

15 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

The map in The Lands of Ice and Fire has no scale, but using the Wall as a guide, it's at a scale of approximately 1mm/10 miles. Using that scale, it is, as the crow flies, approximately 4,000 miles from the Iron Islands to Meereen, and approximately 7,700 miles from the Iron Islands to Meereen.

Euron can't sail as the crow flies, because Westeros (and Valyria) are in the way. So his quickest route (through the Smoking Sea) is more like 6,000 miles.

Using the maps from ADWD, the distance is closer to 4,680.  More or less.  I can break down the legs of the journey if you like.  But maybe you don't want to hear it.

15 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

At a "steady" (almost flat-out) speed of 12 knots, that would work out to about 17 days each way.

So he can do it in under 3 weeks?  That's quite a concession.  And that assumes the distance isn't much shorter, as it may well be.

15 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

That is making all the most favourable assumptions for Euron possible.

Good Lord, no.  If you were to make the most favorable assumptions for Euron possible, you would just assume he is a mystical magical super-pirate, doing mystical magical super-pirate things.  You would not blink at him doing 24 knots, in a world of magical magical super-swords, 700 foot tall walls made of ice, and gargantuan winged lizards who can fly and breathe fire.  Not when the real world 24 hour speed sailing record for a mono-hull is 737 miles at an average speed of over 26 knots.  Not when GRRM is an author whose self-declared policy is to dial everything up to 11.

And then consider that Planetos is an alien planet, with maybe different gravity, and maybe different atmospheric density, and maybe different special and/or mystical materials for the lining of hulls to reduce drag.

Or were you just talking about the distance?  In that case, use the figures derived from the ADWD maps.   Then consider that the Wall might zig and zag, becoming longer when stretched to its full length -- reduce the distance by 5% or even 10%.  Consider that "100 leagues" is a round number and "league" is even more vague - reduce the distance by another 5% or 10% or 20% (some "leagues" are 2.4 miles).  Then consider that the map of the North might possibly have been slightly squashed by the artist in the interest of fitting things in, causing him to condense the length of the Wall being used as a legend; so reduce the distance by another potential 5% or 10%.  You might plausibly get the distance under 4,000 miles.  And then maybe consider that GRRM does not intent the maps to be used this way and said "put away the stopwatch and the ruler and enjoy the story".

15 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

And I don't think it makes sense for Euron to be zipping backwards and forwards between Slaver's Bay and the Iron Islands, logistically or narratively.

Dany meets a vicious fellow whose garish clown suit screams "disguise" and salt stains on his boots that scream "pirate".  Dany for some unaccountable reason starts sleeping with this man and trusting him more than she should.  So she gives him treasure to take to the Lamb Men.  He instead hops on his ship, and takes the treasure to the Iron Islands and give it to the kingsmoot.  And he arrives on the Iron Islands with warlocks in the hull of his ship - warlocks that were chasing Dany when he picked them.

3 months later he pops back in again, only to be sent away for another 3 months.  Meanwhile, elsewhere, Euron is also seen only on occasional intervals.

Makes sense so far.  When do we get to the part that does not make sense?

But maybe it does not work narratively.  Maybe GRRM is stuck.  Maybe that's one of the reasons he has not released a book in 12 years.

I'm not saying it is good.  But all the clues seem to say it is what he is (or was) planning.  And I have no overwhelming need to believe that everything GRRM writes is gold.

15 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

I also don't believe that, magic winds or not, the Silence can maintain top speed, day and night, for weeks at a time.

Why not?  Do you think the hull would wear out?  Or do you simply object to the premise of magic winds?

Edited February 1 by Gilbert Green

[SeanF]

15 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

The map in The Lands of Ice and Fire has no scale, but using the Wall as a guide, it's at a scale of approximately 1mm/10 miles. Using that scale, it is, as the crow flies, approximately 4,000 miles from the Iron Islands to Meereen, and approximately 7,700 miles from the Iron Islands to Meereen.

Euron can't sail as the crow flies, because Westeros (and Valyria) are in the way. So his quickest route (through the Smoking Sea) is more like 6,000 miles.

At a "steady" (almost flat-out) speed of 12 knots, that would work out to about 17 days each way.

That is making all the most favourable assumptions for Euron possible. And I don't think it makes sense for Euron to be zipping backwards and forwards between Slaver's Bay and the Iron Islands, logistically or narratively.

I also don't believe that, magic winds or not, the Silence can maintain top speed, day and night, for weeks at a time.

No ship sails 24/7.  Nobody would sail through the night, pre-radar, unless they had no choice.  The risks of running aground or into rocks, or going astray would be too great.  And, a speed of 4-6 knots per hour, for a sailing ship, or 3-4, for one driven by oars, are more realistic.  Then add in periods where there is no wind, or the wind is blowing against you.

50-60 miles a day is a likely estimate in the age of sail.  So, about a hundred days, assuming no obstacles along the way.  Realistically, a voyage from the Iron Islands to Meereen and back will about 8 months.  

[Alester Florent]

28 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

Good Lord, no.  If you were to make the most favorable assumptions for Euron possible, you would just assume he is a mystical magical super-pirate, doing mystical magical super-pirate things.  You would not blink at him doing 24 knots, in a world of magical magical super-swords, 700 foot tall walls made of ice, and gargantuan winged lizards who can fly and breathe fire.  Not when the real world 24 hour speed sailing record for a mono-hull is 737 miles at an average speed of over 26 knots.  Not when GRRM is an author whose self-declared policy is to dial everything up to 11.

And then consider that Planetos is an alien planet, with maybe different gravity, and maybe different atmospheric density, and maybe different special and/or mystical materials for the lining of hulls to reduce drag.

I mean making all the most favourable assumptions for Euron that make any kind of sense whatsoever with what we're shown and aren't completely mental.

Incidentally, my most hated "theory" in all of fantasy is "it's a fantasy world with magic and magical creatures and therefore we should assume that normal rules of physics/character behaviour/narrative convention/logic don't apply to anything."

The maps in ADwD don't even show the Iron Islands or the Reach, don't have a scale and also don't seem to have any consistent scale across the three of them, so I don't really see how we can make meaningful extrapolations from them regarding distance from Euron's current location to Meereen. The Lands maps don't have scales, but there is at least once which shows the whole of the known world on the same map.

13 minutes ago, SeanF said:

No ship sails 24/7.  Nobody would sail through the night, pre-radar, unless they had no choice.  The risks of running aground or into rocks, or going astray would be too great.  And, a speed of 4-6 knots per hour, for a sailing ship, or 3-4, for one driven by oars, are more realistic.  Then add in periods where there is no wind, or the wind is blowing against you.

50-60 miles a day is a likely estimate in the age of sail.  So, about a hundred days, assuming no obstacles along the way.  Realistically, a voyage from the Iron Islands to Meereen and back will about 8 months.  

Well yes, this is what I think. Euron may be able to magic up favourable winds, but his ship is still built like a normal ship and his crew are still human, and have to work under normal constraints. And I think that that is more in keeping with the way that magic tends to work in ASoIaF. So even if we assume that he can maintain favourable winds all the time (given that the prisoners he's sacrificing seem to be fairly high-status and significant, seems unlikely he has an unlimited supply), sailing 24/7 is not gonna happen, even if we discount the risk of running aground, which we shouldn't.

Some proponents of the Euron/Daario thing, though, think that he can ignore this kind of thing and sail at full speed 24/7.

Edited February 1 by Alester Florent

[Gilbert Green]

16 minutes ago, SeanF said:

No ship sails 24/7.  Nobody would sail through the night, pre-radar, unless they had no choice. 

Sailing ships did in fact regularly sail through the night pre-radar.  Nobody is going to drop anchor mid-ocean.  The chain won't reach the bottom.

Not much danger in mid ocean.  And apparently Euron uses shade of the evening, or other mystical abilities, to help him navigate.

[Gilbert Green]

27 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

I mean making all the most favourable assumptions for Euron that make any kind of sense whatsoever with what we're shown and aren't completely mental.

Incidentally, my most hated "theory" in all of fantasy is "it's a fantasy world with magic and magical creatures and therefore we should assume that normal rules of physics/character behaviour/narrative convention/logic don't apply to anything."

"It can't be true because I don't like it" is not a "rule of physics".

27 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

The maps in ADwD don't even show the Iron Islands or the Reach, don't have a scale and also don't seem to have any consistent scale across the three of them, so I don't really see how we can make meaningful extrapolations from them regarding distance from Euron's current location to Meereen.

 The maps in ADWD do show the Iron Islands and the Reach.  And they have the same legend any map has - such as it it is -- the Wall.  There is enough overlap on the maps that they do seem to be (more or less) on the same scale.

Yes, there are all kinds of uncertainties.  But that's your problem not mine.  You want the distance to be as large as possible because you hate the theory.

27 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

The Lands maps don't have scales, but there is at least once which shows the whole of the known world on the same map.

It is just an artistic rendering that combines many smaller maps and rather obviously makes no claims of consistent scale.   Do you really think that's the actual diameter of Oldtown depicted there?

Just because an artist combines many maps, does not mean he did anything special to guarantee the consistency of the scale.  And, since no scale was actually given, no such guaranty was made either.

 

Edited February 1 by Gilbert Green

[Gilbert Green]

33 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

Well yes, this is what I think. Euron may be able to magic up favourable winds, but his ship is still built like a normal ship and his crew are still human, and have to work under normal constraints.

If he has at least 3 crewmen (and he probably has quite a few more), one can keep watch at all times in an 8 hour shift.

What else needs to be done under "steady winds" conditions? 

[Alester Florent]

7 minutes ago, Gilbert Green said:

 The maps in ADWD do show the Iron Islands and the Reach.  And they have the same legend any map has - such as it it is -- the Wall.

Yes, there are all kinds of uncertainties.  But that's your problem not mine.  You want the distance to be as large as possible because you hate the theory.

It is just an artistic rendering that combines many smaller maps and rather obviously makes no claims of consistent scale.   Do you really think that's the actual diameter of Oldtown depicted there?

I don't want the distance to be as large as possible because I hate the theory. I hate the theory because (in part/largely) the distances as represented to us in both the text and the maps make it implausible.

My copy of ADwD has only three maps: Beyond the Wall, the Free Cities, and Valyria. Maybe we have different editions.

Quote

"It can't be true because I don't like it" is not a "rule of physics".

That approach is one I hate in general terms; the "let's ignore physics" thing is not unique to this setting, let alone this theory. The mindset behind it is generally pretty consistent though.

[Gilbert Green]

21 minutes ago, Alester Florent said:

That approach is one I hate in general terms; the "let's ignore physics" thing is not unique to this setting, let alone this theory. The mindset behind it is generally pretty consistent though.

It's an aesthetic thing.  How much magic is too much magic?  I can't help you there.

I never said "let's violate physics".  It wasn't me who gave GRRM permission to have Drogo melt gold in a cooking fire.  And not even with magic as an explanation.

Anyhow you keep talking about violating physics.  What rule of physics do you claim has been violated?  Do maps with inconsistent or inaccurate scales violate physics? 

Do gods who give red winds in exchange for human sacrifice violate physics?  I guess.  But it seems to be a part of the story.  Both Mel and Moqorro have done it, and Euron is hinted to also have the power.

Edited February 1 by Gilbert Green

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Gilbert Green said:

Sailing ships did in fact regularly sail through the night pre-radar.  Nobody is going to drop anchor mid-ocean.  The chain won't reach the bottom.

Not much danger in mid ocean.  And apparently Euron uses shade of the evening, or other mystical abilities, to help him navigate.

Yes, but ships in medieval times hugged the coastline and dropped anchor at night.  These aren’t the ships of the line of the Royal Navy of 1800.

[Gilbert Green]

Just now, SeanF said:

Yes, but ships in medieval times hugged the coastline and dropped anchor at night. 

Euron does not follow that rule.  Per text.  Sorry.

[Aldarion]

11 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Yes, but ships in medieval times hugged the coastline and dropped anchor at night.  These aren’t the ships of the line of the Royal Navy of 1800.

Not necessarily. What you say was mostly the case, but even in antiquity ships were known to go well out of sight of the shore - though doing so was avoided except in emergency.

Vikings however had a well-devekoped system of open ocean navigation. And considering Ironborn are pseudo-Vikings, I don't see why they should be limited to coastal navigation.

https://www.academia.edu/14821349/Viking_Age_Navigational_Tools_for_Oceanic_Exploration 

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Not necessarily. What you say was mostly the case, but even in antiquity ships were known to go well out of sight of the shore - though doing so was avoided except in emergency.

Vikings however had a well-devekoped system of open ocean navigation. And considering Ironborn are pseudo-Vikings, I don't see why they should be limited to coastal navigation.

https://www.academia.edu/14821349/Viking_Age_Navigational_Tools_for_Oceanic_Exploration 

From the Shield Islands to Meereen was 80 days, albeit that was a fleet, rather than one ship.  Victarion did put in at ports and islands, even if there were times he crossed open sea.

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Vikings however had a well-devekoped system of open ocean navigation. And considering Ironborn are pseudo-Vikings, I don't see why they should be limited to coastal navigation.

https://www.academia.edu/14821349/Viking_Age_Navigational_Tools_for_Oceanic_Exploration 

Obviously they would be stuck on the Iron Islands forever, if they were entirely limited to coastal navigation.  The Summer Islanders even more so.

But when Euron leads the Ironborn fleet far out into the Sunset Sea, and then swoops back to attack the Shield Islands from the West, the text suggests this tactic is both unusual and daring.  Cersei thinks that Willas just forgot to man his watchtowers and failed to notice 1000 ships sailing by, but Victarion confirms that Euron indeed did this.

[Gilbert Green]

2 hours ago, SeanF said:

From the Shield Islands to Meereen was 80 days, albeit that was a fleet, rather than one ship.  Victarion did put in at ports and islands, even if there were times he crossed open sea.

Victarion's chapters are filled with mentions of the adverse weather conditions he faced.

Sailing ships don't have set travel times.  That's not how sailing works.  You can travel hundreds of miles in a day under ideal conditions, or you can sit becalmed for weeks.

And of course, when transporting alot of men, you need to restock more often, especially if you get delayed.

But if you are only transporting a handful of men (oneself and a few mutes, say), then a few weeks of provisions is hardly a big deal.  And if you don't get delayed you don't need to resupply.  It is not like you are going to run out of petrol.

Edited February 1 by Gilbert Green

[Gilbert Green]

6 hours ago, Alester Florent said:

My copy of ADwD has only three maps: Beyond the Wall, the Free Cities, and Valyria. Maybe we have different editions

You can download all 5 maps from Random House.

A Dance with Dragons Maps | Random House Group (randomhousebooks.com)

[Gilbert Green]

On 1/31/2024 at 7:16 PM, Alester Florent said:

The map in The Lands of Ice and Fire has no scale, but using the Wall as a guide, it's at a scale of approximately 1mm/10 miles. Using that scale, it is, as the crow flies, approximately 4,000 miles from the Iron Islands to Meereen, and approximately 7,700 miles from the Iron Islands to Meereen.

Euron can't sail as the crow flies, because Westeros (and Valyria) are in the way. So his quickest route (through the Smoking Sea) is more like 6,000 miles.

Funny.  I plotted and measured the "The Known World" map using the Wall as a legend, from Pyke to the western tip of the Westerlands, then to the Western tip of the Reach, then the the Eastmost isle off the Arbor, then straight across and through the Smoking Sea, then up to the tip of the Isle of Cedars, and then on to Meereen.

I got about 4,730.  Or roughly 2 weeks at roughly 12 knots.  Pretty much exactly what I get on the ADWD maps.

I think you must be doing something wrong. 

[Kal-L]

I forgot about that one but Longclaw having to be Blackfyre simply because it is wielded by a suspected Targaryen is one theory I particularly despise.

[Gilbert Green]

On 2/1/2024 at 2:09 PM, SeanF said:

From the Shield Islands to Meereen was 80 days, albeit that was a fleet, rather than one ship. 

You are going by the so-called "most precise ASOIAF timeline".  Which is okay, but it helps to remember that it is not a canon source.  It's conclusions can be questioned sometimes.

Also, those 80 days assume Victarion left the same day he decided to go.  If he spent a week gathering the Iron Fleet, or instance, it would be 73 days.

Here are some other conclusions you can draw, using the "most precise ASOIAF timeline" as a framework.

- It took only 3 mos, 7 days (99 days)  for news of news of Dany's arrival in Qarth to reach Pentos AND for Barristan to THEN travel to Quarth.  If the news traveled by sea, then a one-way trip is just a little over a month and a half; but you can give Barristan more time, maybe, by postulating some system of sending news from Qarth by carrier bird.

- It took 2 months and 5 days (from 9/9 to 11/16) for the Quarteen Warlocks to travel from Quarth to the Iron Islands.  And of course the travel time is even less if Euron stops into slavers bay to check out this Dragon Queen he is so interested in, before transporting his captured Warlocks through the smoking sea.

- The timeline author allows 25 days elapse (1/4 through 1/29) between Stannis' decision to go to the Wall, and his arrival at Castle Black.  Allowing a week for the overland journey and a few days to prepare, then the journey from Dragonstone to the Wall might have taken two weeks.  The author of the timeline seems a big believer in set schedules for sailing ships, because he remarks "let's assume Mel's magic for Stannis' ships was really really good."