Your Most Hated ASOIAF theory

[House Cambodia]

13 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

The thing is, him ariving there with a newborn is still suspicious, corpse or not. There are two options: there was a wet nurse in the TOJ or there wasn't. If there was, Ned can arrive to the TOJ claiming the wet nurse to be the actual mother of the baby (tho for it to work, we have to assume the wet nurse had no child of her own). If there wasn't a wet nurse, Ned ariving in Starfall with a new born and no way to feed it would be suspicious as hell, regardless of Lyanna's body.

Right. It does seem implausible that Lyanna was holed up heavily pregnant in one room without a servant of some sort, yet she's not mentioned. That's a slightly separate matter.

Ned arriving at Starfall with a newborn would be suspicious indeed; arriving with a newborn AND dead sister who'd appeared to have died giving birth to a baby at the same time the 'other' one was born would be way more than merely 'suspicious'. He could have tried the line, 'It's Lyanna's baby, but I don't know who the father is'; instead he went with 'It's my baby and I don't know who the mother is - but it's not this one here. Might be one of you'. None of this makes any kind of sense.

[CamiloRP]

4 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

Right. It does seem implausible that Lyanna was holed up heavily pregnant in one room without a servant of some sort, yet she's not mentioned. That's a slightly separate matter.

Ned arriving at Starfall with a newborn would be suspicious indeed; arriving with a newborn AND dead sister who'd appeared to have died giving birth to a baby at the same time the 'other' one was born would be way more than merely 'suspicious'. He could have tried the line, 'It's Lyanna's baby, but I don't know who the father is'; instead he went with 'It's my baby and I don't know who the mother is - but it's not this one here. Might be one of you'. None of this makes any kind of sense.

It would be imposible for him not to know who the mother was if he was the father, he's line was "I'm not telling" not "I don't know".

And for the rest, idk, there isn't all that much information on the TOJ. The people in Starfall should assume the baby is Lyanna's, as if it wasn't, why would Ned take it from it's mother without finding a wet nurse first? Also, taking the baby from the mother it's already incredibly cruel for both the baby and the mother.

On the other hand, some people assume Ned went back for Lyanna, he didn't take her at first.

But anyway, I don't think her corpse adds any proof. A few days passed between her death and them ariving at Starfall, more than enough for the obvious signs of pregnancy to disappear, and Ned could'v erefused anyone to examine her. Him taking the body doesn't add any information: people know she's dead, Ned shows up with a baby anyway, and what did she die off if not childbirth? why would the Kingsguard kill her? and Rhaegar was almost certainly raping her in the eyes of everyone, as he kidnapped her for a reason...

[House Cambodia]

30 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

It would be imposible for him not to know who the mother was if he was the father, he's line was "I'm not telling" not "I don't know".

That's my point. Whatever tale he'd come up with in conjunction with the corpse and baby would be implausible. I think if he'd refused to allow the maester at Starfall to examine the body, that would raise great suspicion - what was he hiding?

Even if they believed Robert and Ned's story of Rhaegar raping her, he was long dead as you indicated earlier, so what was she doing stuck alone in TOJ with Arthur Dayne of all people preventing her leaving? Why was she not preparing to give birth in the comfort of Starfell? What did Ser Arthur's family think he was doing, or did they think Ned killed him to prevent the truth getting out? What I'm getting at, is the story just doesn't add up.

[Sandy Clegg]

7 hours ago, Sevalemer said:

8 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

Why would the Tyrells risk Margeary's death by poisoning the cup she drinks from, or risk her be implicated in the murder if Joff offered her some wine, she refused and then he died, poisoned by that wine?

No idea, unless Olenna told her she was going to do it.

The chalice is kind of an important detail here, and probably points to more Tyrells being involved than just Olenna. 

Assuming their involvement, they have to ensure that Margaery doesn't drink that wine once the strangler goes in. To be 100% sure of this, Olenna would need to have a signal worked out with her grand-daughter after she does the deed. That part seems logical enough, but what if Joff presses the cup into her hands once it's been spiked and insists she drinks?

Well that wine chalice was a gift from Margarey's father (and a clue from GRRM) which should immediately raise our suspicions. It was three feet tall, half the height of a grown man.

Lord Mace Tyrell came forward to present his gift: a golden chalice three feet tall, with two ornate curved handles and seven faces glittering with gemstones. 

A huge, unwieldy cup. When full, Joff even requires two arms to lift the thing:

"Let the cups be filled!" Joffrey proclaimed, when the gods had been given their due. His cupbearer poured a whole flagon of dark Arbor red into the golden wedding chalice that Lord Tyrell had given him that morning. The king had to use both hands to lift it. 

This is very useful for Margaery if she needs to avoid drinking poisoned wine, having been tipped off by granny Thorns, who is never far from her side at the wedding.

Should Margaery need to fake drinking, the sheer size of the thing would have made it easy to do some quick mummery. Nobody would even see her head behind the damn thing. Alternatively, if she feels that is too risky, she has another perfect get-out in the chalice being so heavy, so she could make a show of being too weak to handle it, dropping it, then spilling the contents. When it's refilled, she should be safe enough providing it didn't have any dregs (although personally I would request it scrubbed for a week with ethanol before I would go near it!).

Olenna even has backup poison in ready supply just in case of such an emergency: simply acquire another strangler amethyst from Sansa's venomous hairnet and start over. 

[the trees have eyes]

14 hours ago, Ser Duncan of Flea Bottom said:

Thanks mate! 

I do like the idea of Jon being the son of Brandon and Ashara, even though I know this theory tends to be seen as farfetched. It is hard to have a lot of ideas considering we don't have the exact timeline on how things went, but I suspect Brandon had his time with Ashara him being who he is.

But why would she hand over her child to Ned and why would Ned pass the child off as his bastard rather than his brother's bastard to the detriment of his marriage and reputation?  And what did he promise Lyanna?

8 hours ago, Tai Pan said:

The better theory is Artur Dayne fathered Jon Snow on Lyanna Stark. 

How is this better?  There is no evidence for it at all.

[the trees have eyes]

@Sandy Clegg @CamiloRP

I think it's okay to not like a theory for subjective rather than objective reasons but it's quite amusing that this list of theories turned into a rather in depth debate about the merits of one or two. 

It's fiendishly difficult to disprove something, particularly when the evidence is a pov narrated work of creative fantasy and some people require forensic, water tight rebuttals of their takes on things and if that's not forthcoming they'll insist GRRM is going to reveal what they have been saying at some future point.

So, I'll just make one observation rather than wading into this again. 

Sansa can and does escape in the general panic to flee the hall after Joffrey's death, quite literally swept up and unnoticed in the crowd and the confusion.  If the planned victim is Tyrion, the husband she is sat beside and no stampede for the exit ensues, how does she escape unnoticed?

[Sandy Clegg]

30 minutes ago, the trees have eyes said:

rather than wading into this again. 

Ha, I know the feeling. I suspect you may have already waded where you only meant to paddle, with this comment.  This is a good debate, though, because it really does point out some of the difficulties in finding evidence when an author pre-empts this by providing ample decoys and red herrings to not only confuse, but to leave room for further surprises in the future.

[CamiloRP]

8 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

That's my point. Whatever tale he'd come up with in conjunction with the corpse and baby would be implausible. I think if he'd refused to allow the maester at Starfall to examine the body, that would raise great suspicion - what was he hiding?

I don't think it'd point to him hiding something. I don't think it's expected for her body to be examined, after all we only see one corpse get examined: Joffrey's, and it was to determine the cause of death. If Ned says she died, he must've came up with a cause of death too.

 

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Even if they believed Robert and Ned's story of Rhaegar raping her, he was long dead as you indicated earlier, so what was she doing stuck alone in TOJ with Arthur Dayne of all people preventing her leaving? Why was she not preparing to give birth in the comfort of Starfell? What did Ser Arthur's family think he was doing, or did they think Ned killed him to prevent the truth getting out? What I'm getting at, is the story just doesn't add up.

Yes, I agree with you, we don't have the full story.

[CamiloRP]

4 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

The chalice is kind of an important detail here, and probably points to more Tyrells being involved than just Olenna. 

Assuming their involvement, they have to ensure that Margaery doesn't drink that wine once the strangler goes in. To be 100% sure of this, Olenna would need to have a signal worked out with her grand-daughter after she does the deed. That part seems logical enough, but what if Joff presses the cup into her hands once it's been spiked and insists she drinks?

Well that wine chalice was a gift from Margarey's father (and a clue from GRRM) which should immediately raise our suspicions. It was three feet tall, half the height of a grown man.

Lord Mace Tyrell came forward to present his gift: a golden chalice three feet tall, with two ornate curved handles and seven faces glittering with gemstones. 

A huge, unwieldy cup. When full, Joff even requires two arms to lift the thing:

"Let the cups be filled!" Joffrey proclaimed, when the gods had been given their due. His cupbearer poured a whole flagon of dark Arbor red into the golden wedding chalice that Lord Tyrell had given him that morning. The king had to use both hands to lift it. 

This is very useful for Margaery if she needs to avoid drinking poisoned wine, having been tipped off by granny Thorns, who is never far from her side at the wedding.

Should Margaery need to fake drinking, the sheer size of the thing would have made it easy to do some quick mummery. Nobody would even see her head behind the damn thing. Alternatively, if she feels that is too risky, she has another perfect get-out in the chalice being so heavy, so she could make a show of being too weak to handle it, dropping it, then spilling the contents. When it's refilled, she should be safe enough providing it didn't have any dregs (although personally I would request it scrubbed for a week with ethanol before I would go near it!).

Olenna even has backup poison in ready supply just in case of such an emergency: simply acquire another strangler amethyst from Sansa's venomous hairnet and start over. 

So, even more needless conspirators and added complexity to the plan.

Why didn't Olenna just carry the poison herself from the getgo and poisoned Joff's food instead of his wine? that would both be safer for Marge and more believable when it comes to simulating a choaking.

Also, if Marge was in on it, why wasn't she the one to do the poisoning? she's both closer to Joff and likely has more dexterity to do so unnoticed.

[CamiloRP]

3 hours ago, the trees have eyes said:

@Sandy Clegg @CamiloRP

I think it's okay to not like a theory for subjective rather than objective reasons but it's quite amusing that this list of theories turned into a rather in depth debate about the merits of one or two. 

It's fiendishly difficult to disprove something, particularly when the evidence is a pov narrated work of creative fantasy and some people require forensic, water tight rebuttals of their takes on things and if that's not forthcoming they'll insist GRRM is going to reveal what they have been saying at some future point.

So, I'll just make one observation rather than wading into this again. 

Sansa can and does escape in the general panic to flee the hall after Joffrey's death, quite literally swept up and unnoticed in the crowd and the confusion.  If the planned victim is Tyrion, the husband she is sat beside and no stampede for the exit ensues, how does she escape unnoticed?

This has already been adressed tho, in the chaos and confusion of someone being poisoned it wouldn't be hard for her to sneak out, since everyone would be focused on the dead guy. This is in fact exactly what happened, Joffrey was close enough to Sansa to grab a piece of pie from right next to her, and she was able to sneak out unbothered.

[Sandy Clegg]

1 hour ago, CamiloRP said:

So, even more needless conspirators and added complexity to the plan.

Why didn't Olenna just carry the poison herself from the getgo and poisoned Joff's food instead of his wine? that would both be safer for Marge and more believable when it comes to simulating a choaking.

Also, if Marge was in on it, why wasn't she the one to do the poisoning? she's both closer to Joff and likely has more dexterity to do so unnoticed.

It was kept in the family, which is hardly the same as hiring 'serving men'. The Tyrells seem more tight-knit than the Lannisters in this regard, especially the three women. I feel like they then 'count as one' for the purposes of complexity, as there is seemingly no risk they would rat each other out. And in this case having the core family involved (including Marg's mother) would be helping to ensure Marg's survival, so hardly 'needless'. 

Olenna is important. I think we shouldn't underestimate the skill, nerves and stomach needed for the job. She'd want it done properly. Margaery is barely more than a girl herself, don't forget. Plus, if Olenna is somehow caught, she is more dispensable. She's lived a long life, after all. Why put Marg at risk of treason as well as death? 

We have no evidence that the strangler dissolves easily in food - unless one is an alchemist or maester, it's taking an awful gamble by using anything other than the strangler's most traditional medium: red wine. Plus the chalice was a big enough target that she could probably pop the amethyst in even from several paces away. Its size is a significant advantage for the Tyrells in many ways.

[CamiloRP]

2 minutes ago, Sandy Clegg said:

It was kept in the family, which is hardly the same as hiring 'serving men'. The Tyrells seem more tight-knit than the Lannisters in this regard, especially the three women. I feel like they then 'count as one' for the purposes of complexity, as there is seemingly no risk they would rat each other out. And in this case having the core family involved (including Marg's mother)

I don't mean they would betray them, but one of them could look guilty or something like that, maybe giving the plan away. Or maybe the "signal" you proposed could be noticed by someone. And look at it from LF's pov, instead of using a trusted henchman, why would he involve three people he has no reason to trust?

Also, let's say Marge knocked the chalise, but not all of the wine got dumped, she then got served again, would she drink it, knowing the remaining wine might be poisoned?

 

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would be helping to ensure Marg's survival, so hardly 'needless'. 

It is needless, because you can ensure Marge's survival by putting the poison in Joff'so food, which would also have the added bennefit of making a more realistic choaking.

 

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Olenna is important. I think we shouldn't underestimate the skill, nerves and stomach needed for the job. She'd want it done properly. Margaery is barely more than a girl herself, don't forget. Plus, if Olenna is somehow caught, she is more dispensable. She's lived a long life, after all. Why put Marg at risk of treason as well as death?

I already said this, Marge is right next to Joff, meaning her poisoning the wine is easier to conceal. It's also easier to conceal given she's more dextrous than her grandma.

Also, why puting any of them in any risk at all? why not puting the poion in Joff's food, so there's no risk of Marge dying? why not hiring a thief to sneakily put the poison in, so there's less chances of them being caught and if they are caught, there's less chances of implicating the Tyrells.

 

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We have no evidence that the strangler dissolves easily in food - unless one is an alchemist or maester, it's taking an awful gamble by using anything other than the strangler's most traditional medium: red wine.

If it dissolves in wine, then it dissolves in saliva or stomach acid, we've been through this. Besides, there were seventy-seven courses in the menu. A few of those must've been liquid based, such as soup, and the westerosi love to eat things with wine sauces, so probably there was some of that as well, why not use that.

Also, Olenna could simply ask a maester, it's not that hard, several family members of her are maesters.

 

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Plus the chalice was a big enough target that she could probably pop the amethyst in even from several paces away. Its size is a significant advantage for the Tyrells in many ways.

So, you're sugesting she threw the poison into the chalice like a basketball without being spotted? Does this seriously make sense to you?

[Frey family reunion]

On 4/9/2024 at 4:27 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

At a point which is out of range of the sights and sounds of King's Landing. The textual evidence is pretty clear that wherever Sansa is, Peter is and was further out than that. The directional speculation doesn't confirm where he was. Our last known information is that he was not in KL. Now, if George wanted to plant some clues that LF had been closer and heard the bells, or was in KL, don't you think you would fairly have left some in the text which might show this? Instead we have nothing but what ifs and maybes. So that's weight of evidence, which I can't really ignore.

No, if Petyr was further from King’s Landing than Sansa he would have been coming in from the East, but he wasn’t.  He came out of the darkness after the sun had already started to rise in the East, thus Petyr was not coming from further out in the Bay.   If anything he and Sansa’s rowboat were of an equal distance from King’s Landing right before they came together.

On 4/9/2024 at 4:27 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

Except it was not shown to be sailing away from KL, but rather patently the opposite. Making the bells even further away. I'm afraid I have to point to the above. If it wasn't in the text that Petyr was coming from KL, then there's no strong basis to prove otherwise that supports Tyrion over Joff. It's possibilities vs. textual evidence

 See above.  

On 4/9/2024 at 4:27 PM, Sandy Clegg said:

Again, it's a pretty big leap. A commotion like that would've brought kingsguard circling round the guests nearby pretty sharpish. Accidental death/accusation of Tyrion meant that eyes were not on Sansa - enough to get away. Littlefinger is simply assuming that his plan succeeded. He is within his right to do so, as it's in character for him to be so cocky. And again - if he had been proved wrong and Joff wasn't dead, that doesn't retroactively alter any plan. It just makes him an arrogant assassin on top of everything else. As it turns out, he was right to assume his plan had worked. 

It’s not a big leap at all.  Petyr is sure that Joffrey was dead because George had the bells ringing in King’s landing.  So if Joffrey was the intended target, than the bells confirmed Petyr’s plan was successful.  If Joffrey wasn’t the intended target, than Petyr could obviously conclude that the poisoner(s) decided to change their target.  And Petyr could fairly easily conclude that the poisoner would have also had a motive to poison Joffrey even if he had hoped they would poison Tyrion.

According to the assumed version of events, Sansa is never told that Joffrey or anyone else is going to be poisoned.  She’s just told that when an opportunity presents itself, get to the Godwood.  Allegedly, unbeknownst to Sansa the plotters are going to present her with that opportunity by poisoning someone at the wedding.

But the poisoning itself is out of the hands of Littlefinger.  If Olenna was supposed to be the poisoner, it’s certainly possible that the old tiny lady, couldn’t find an opportunity to poison Joffrey, or she was caught in the act, or she simply changed her mind.  But Sansa could still have found an opportunity to have left the wedding without the poisoning.  Even the Kingsguards admit that they couldnt’ keep track of what people were doing because of the chaotic nature of the wedding.  And we hadn’t even gotten to the bedding yet.

Regardless, Sansa’s presence shouldn’t have been enough to have confirmed to Petyr that Joffrey was in fact dead.  Thus we have the bells ringing.

[Mithras]

In no particular order

• Night Lamp
• Eldritch Apocalypse
• Ashford Theory
• Yas Queen Sansa
• Dany heroically sacrifices herself fighting the Others
• fAegon takes King's Landing
• A horn that brings down the Wall from the other end of the continent or binds a dragon from the other side of the planet
• Sandor's story is done and he will live in peace at Quiet Isle
• Varys is a good guy

[the trees have eyes]

18 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

This has already been adressed tho, in the chaos and confusion of someone being poisoned it wouldn't be hard for her to sneak out

Someone =/= The King.  She isn't sneaking out, she's hidden in the crowd.  This pandemonium simply doesn't happen if the target is Tyrion.  Most particularly the dying man's wife trying to get away attracts attention when everyone else is staying put.

I think you proved my point about subjectivity and objectivity.  Maybe I do too 

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

He is going to die, Tyrion realized. He felt curiously calm, though pandemonium raged all about him. They were pounding Joff on the back again, but his face was only growing darker. Dogs were barking, children were wailing, men were shouting useless advice at each other. Half the wedding guests were on their feet, some shoving at each other for a better view, others rushing for the doors in their haste to get away.

 

A Storm of Swords - Tyrion VIII

 

Margaery Tyrell was weeping in her grandmother's arms as the old lady said, "Be brave, be brave." Most of the musicians had fled, but one last flutist in the gallery was blowing a dirge. In the rear of the throne room scuffling had broken out around the doors, and the guests were trampling on each other. Ser Addam's gold cloaks moved in to restore order. Guests were rushing headlong out into the night, some weeping, some stumbling and retching, others white with fear. It occurred to Tyrion belatedly that it might be wise to leave himself.

 

22 hours ago, Sandy Clegg said:

Ha, I know the feeling. I suspect you may have already waded where you only meant to paddle, with this comment.

Word 

[Nevets]

@CamiloRP A few comments.

What does Littlefinger bring to the table?  It's quite possible he provided the murder weapon.  The Strangler is described as rare, difficult to make, and costly.  And while maesters know how to make it, that fact isn't widely known.  The Tyrells may not have had a ready source.  The hairnet may be a method of getting the poison to the Tyrells as well as getting it into the feast.

Who put it in the wine?  Olenna doesn't have to be the one who administers it.  She can pass it to someone.  I've always suspected Garlan.  He's family, at the table, tall, and likely not the subject of attention at least less than Margaery and Olenna.

Poisoning the food.  There are a huge number of courses.  As such there is no assurance that your target will even eat the item you put the poison in.  With wine, you can be sure that Joffrey (or Tyrion, for that matter), will drink the wine in front of them.  If someone can introduce the poison into Tyrion's food, it should be even easier to poison his drink.  So I seriously doubt the poison was in the pie, especially since it is described as being administered in wine.

Sansa's departure.  If Tyrion is dying, and she is anywhere near, it is unlikely she will be able to leave.  Certainly anyone planning on exfiltrating her would need to assume that likelihood.  If Littlefinger wants Sansa for himself, the logical thing is to get her out first, then deal with Tyrion, or separate them, as is the case here.

I think we are better off trying to figure out how, and maybe why, Littlefinger and Olenna arranged things than in devising alternate scenarios that have no textual support.

[Sandy Clegg]

33 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Poisoning the food.  There are a huge number of courses.  As such there is no assurance that your target will even eat the item you put the poison in. 

And Tyrion doesn't even find the pie that appetising. You'd think if they wanted to poison Tyrion with food, the poisoners would have done some research and found out what his favourite types of food are ...

33 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Certainly anyone planning on exfiltrating her would need to assume that likelihood

Points for using exfiltrating in a sentence. I've always wanted to do that!  

[Sandy Clegg]

17 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Petyr is sure that Joffrey was dead because George had the bells ringing in King’s landing.  So if Joffrey was the intended target, than the bells confirmed Petyr’s plan was successful.

Except Petyr had no way to hear the bells, as has already been discussed. He's out in the misty silent darkness of Blackwater Bay, and I personally haven't been convinced by any argument that he had been in any position previously to hear them, as that contradicts what we are shown in Sansa's POV and defies logic, as well as going against Littlefinger's seeming desire to stay well out of the action. 

[Sandy Clegg]

18 hours ago, CamiloRP said:

she's more dextrous than her grandma.

I mean, this is without basis and kind of ageist. I'm no spring chicken myself but my hands don't shake.

[Sandy Clegg]

17 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

No, if Petyr was further from King’s Landing than Sansa he would have been coming in from the East, but he wasn’t.  He came out of the darkness after the sun had already started to rise in the East, thus Petyr was not coming from further out in the Bay.

The bay is big. He has plenty of water north of wherever Sansa was, out in Blackwater Bay, as they had rowed for such a long time. See this map:  https://heavy.com/entertainment/2019/05/game-of-thrones-map-kings-landing-dragonstone-winterfell-dragonstone-s8e5-timeline/

For example, draw a line south from Duskendale then east from KL - if Sansa was anywhere around that intersecting point, then The Merlin King could have easily come from the north while being nowhere near King's Landing, and Sansa can still see the east sun rising.

There's no support for Petyr coming from King's Landing still, yet plenty of ways he can avoid the eastern sun.