New Military Strength of the North/Jon Snow

[YeniAy_Ottoman]

Hello, Selam!

I wanted to discuss an idea that has been on my mind for a while. The topic is two-part.

The First Part: Military Strength

We do not know the full number of military might of kingdoms in Westeros. Although there are vague and semi-official statements about this, it is not easy to talk about exact numbers in general. We only know that Reach has around 100k soldiers(_{Frankly, this seems a bit exaggerated.}). For this reason, the military power of other kingdoms has always been controversial.

If there is one thing we can at least be sure of, it is that those who took part in the war must have been somewhat weakened militarily. The north is what I'm going to argue.

(on the ASOIAF Wiki)According to semi-official sources, the north has 45k armies. The aforementioned source is; A Game of Thrones: d20-based Open Gaming RPG.

The reliability of this source is of course questionable, but assuming at least 20,000 soldiers were destroyed, there are still at least 20-25 thousand soldiers in the north. Combined with the other advantages of geography, the north can easily defend and even win on its territory. It'll still need more soldiers if the northeren/Jon has to fight far away homeland. Or when the Others come, they'll need soldiers.

Other than Wildings, where can the north find this soldier?

This is where my idea comes into play. We have a prospective king who needs soldiers to fight for the throne; stannis. For this he had to borrow money from Braavos. We know that in one of the chapters in the 6th book published, Stannis sent one of his knights to Braavos. The knight's job is to take the gold and hire soldiers and buy ships for Stannis.

 

Spoiler

"The Iron Bank opened their chests to me. You will collect their money and buy me ships and sellswords... Twenty thousand men is enough. Don't come back with less." - Theon POV, TWoW

 

Most importantly, Stannis said,

Spoiler

"Even if you hear I'm dead, you will send these soldiers to me!"

Stannis is probably plotting his own fake death, one of the arguments used for the pink letter, but that's not the point. Stannis will indeed die at the end of the day. Yes, other readers have other ideas on this subject, but I am one of those who think that Stannis' role in book 6 is over.

These 20,000 soldiers and ships won't be able to come to help Stannis in time. But still those ships and soldiers will come. That way, Jon will have at least 20,000 soldiers in preparation for war. These soldiers can even be used by Jon in the Battle of Winterfell, the final battle in the north.

I actually found this somewhat ironic. It is highly likely that we owe it to Arya for Braavos' decision to support Stannis. Stannis plans to bring 20,000 troops north and orders those soldiers to be sent no matter what, even if word of his death is heard! Then when these soldiers arrive, it will benefit the north/Jon. So Arya appears to have done Stannis a favor on the surface—even though that was not her purpose—but she actually helped raise the military power her family would need in the future. My smart girl.

 

The Second Part: The Origins of Sellswords

Looking at the battle of Meereen, the masters seem to have gathered almost all the sellsword companies. Honestly I wonder how many companies there are in Essos, it seems quite a lot. Anyway.

Another small detail about the soldiers Stannis wants is the choice of the reputable ones. So we don't expect the knight to assemble every company he finds at random and send them north. We don't know about every company in Essos, nor do we know the names of each, but we expect them to total 20,000 men.

Two small details added in other books caught my attention, and I thought if it would be possible to see what is mentioned here in the main books.

It is possible to talk about two companies belonging to the northerners.

The book The World of Ice and Fire mentions a northern sellword unit called the Company of the Rose. I think there is no doubt that the rose mentioned here is the Winter Rose. It has different names as Winterfell Rose, Blue Rose, Snow Rose.

 

Quote

The Company of the Rose is a sellsword company operating in Essos. It was founded by men, and according to some accounts also women, of the North who rejected Torrhen Stark's submission to Aegon the Conqueror and thus chose exile over bending the knee. - ASOIAF Wiki

 

Another is Wolf Pack. These are mentioned in both the World book and the Fire and Blood book.

 

Quote

The Wolf Pack was founded by Hallis Hornwood and Timotty Snow in the aftermath of the Dance of the Dragons and the collapse of the Triarchy. At the time, the free company consisted only of northmen. - ASOIAF Wiki

So far, we haven't read or seen any mention of these two companies. Of course, these may just be details added to enrich the universe, but it may not be.

If Stannis wants sellswords and companies are to be hired for them, the existence of these two among the futures would not be an impossible thought. Will the children of the north finally return to their homes?

I find the names of companies especially meaningful. In these books there are two characters represented by the blue rose; Lyanna and her son Jon Snow. In addition, the wolf pack is a perception and understanding of the Starks. In other words, the names of these two companies have a direct connection with Jon in particular and the Stark family in general.

Thanks for read.

 

[SeanF]

There are about 7,000 sellswords, serving with the Slaver coalition (of those, 2,500 switch sides, during the TWOW sample chapters).  Then, there are 10,000 with the Golden Company.  But, the population of Western Essos runs into many millions, so there must be thousands of sellswords still available for hire.

How many men the North can field would depend in large part, on whether people are defending their home territory (in which case, a very high proportion of the adult male population will be fighting), or whether it's an expeditionary force, operating hundreds of miles away from their homes, in which case, the proportion of men who can be mobilised will be far smaller.

[YeniAy_Ottoman]

I wish Martin had been more specific about army numbers.

[Alden Rothack]

19 hours ago, YeniAy_Ottoman said:

I wish Martin had been more specific about army numbers.

I wish Martin had given us even as much about population as he did about army numbers, the North takes 2 or 3 times as long to gather its full strength as the southron kingdoms because its as large as the next three largest kingdoms combined

we can't know how many men they can field unless we know how many men they have to recruit from and we don't, what we have are some educated guesses at best.

[James Steller]

2 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

I wish Martin had given us even as much about population as he did about army numbers, the North takes 2 or 3 times as long to gather its full strength as the southron kingdoms because its as large as the next three largest kingdoms combined

we can't know how many men they can field unless we know how many men they have to recruit from and we don't, what we have are some educated guesses at best.

Probably for the best. We nitpick enough as it is, heh. If things are vague, then GRRM can dredge up details when he needs them and it isn’t a contradiction. That’s why the Manderlys, Ryswells and Dustins suddenly have most of their strength intact and are also very powerful houses to boot. 

[Alden Rothack]

8 minutes ago, James Steller said:

Probably for the best. We nitpick enough as it is, heh. If things are vague, then GRRM can dredge up details when he needs them and it isn’t a contradiction. That’s why the Manderlys, Ryswells and Dustins suddenly have most of their strength intact and are also very powerful houses to boot. 

Well that makes sense because they are in the southern half and control large territories, they should be very powerful houses

[House Cambodia]

2 hours ago, Alden Rothack said:

I wish Martin had given us even as much about population as he did about army numbers, the North takes 2 or 3 times as long to gather its full strength as the southron kingdoms because its as large as the next three largest kingdoms combined

we can't know how many men they can field unless we know how many men they have to recruit from and we don't, what we have are some educated guesses at best.

Even with population sizes and army strengths, we can be misled. I've just finished re-reading all 5 volumes with a map open next to me. I some cases a couple - or an army move a few millimetres in a week, in other cases they cross half a continent. One thing that indicates is movement is severely affected by topography. The North has thick forests, mountainous terrain, often thick snow - and little in the way of roads off the King's Road. Dorne has its terrain issues too. The Reach and Crownlands is all flat fields - who needs roads when you're ahorse? Fleets too can cross a continent quickly with a fair wind, or can be becalmed or shattered by storms. GRRM out a lot of thought into these details, only for the TV show to lazily teleport people from A to B.

[Alden Rothack]

2 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

Even with population sizes and army strengths, we can be misled. I've just finished re-reading all 5 volumes with a map open next to me. I some cases a couple - or an army move a few millimetres in a week, in other cases they cross half a continent. One thing that indicates is movement is severely affected by topography. The North has thick forests, mountainous terrain, often thick snow - and little in the way of roads off the King's Road. Dorne has its terrain issues too. The Reach and Crownlands is all flat fields - who needs roads when you're ahorse? Fleets too can cross a continent quickly with a fair wind, or can be becalmed or shattered by storms. GRRM out a lot of thought into these details, only for the TV show to lazily teleport people from A to B.

Your absolutely right that geography makes a huge difference in how fast armies move, this is one of the key reasons why the Riverlands keeps being the football of westeros, its so easy to march in and around it.

Don't get me started on the tv show, just don't

[James Steller]

58 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

only for the TV show to lazily teleport people from A to B.

 

36 minutes ago, Alden Rothack said:

Don't get me started on the tv show, just don't

Balin: It’s not a show! IT’S AN ABOMINATION!!

[Alden Rothack]

21 minutes ago, James Steller said:

 

Balin: It’s not a show! IT’S AN ABOMINATION!!

I wouldn't go that far

[astarkchoice]

Ok a couple of notes about military strengths we hear.

- the sellsword thing i think i posted before about this. The golden company is 10k strong which means that when the 3 sisters go to war there must be equally opposing forces to not make the golden companys hire an 'insta-win'!  The millions of people in essos and the sheer scale of the disputed lands would support this. 

On top.of that stannis who isnt one for idle dreaming feels hiring 20k in a few weeks/months is feasible. We can also assume its highly unlikely the golden company would be hired by any state  on their own therefore short wars/skirmishes between the 3 sisters probably involve merc forces of 15-20ishk each or possibly more if we include  the sellsail mini  armadas that are also apparently for rent! 

We know at the wot5k start varys does mention the disputed lands wars are heating up again so many of the companies will have been under contract , this and the vast distances to slavers bay are probably why the slavers havent  hired more (a mixture of those 2 things and their cockyness about a guaranteed win). Yi-ti  is also gigantic ,wealthy and mid civil war so again a lot more of thr available mercs may be wayy  further  east.

- the norths military manpower like any regions would be hard to fully guage. 45k at max but that doesnt take into consideration fresh levies being raised and trained nor the fact that every single lord must leave some kind of skeleton forces to hold their keeps and maintain order on their lands (roose and lady dustin  we see send the bare minimum they can) AND any region can bulk its forces with mercs and at a push   peasants as tywin did.

[Universal Sword Donor]

On 3/13/2024 at 10:31 AM, House Cambodia said:

Even with population sizes and army strengths, we can be misled. I've just finished re-reading all 5 volumes with a map open next to me. I some cases a couple - or an army move a few millimetres in a week, in other cases they cross half a continent. One thing that indicates is movement is severely affected by topography. The North has thick forests, mountainous terrain, often thick snow - and little in the way of roads off the King's Road. Dorne has its terrain issues too. The Reach and Crownlands is all flat fields - who needs roads when you're ahorse? Fleets too can cross a continent quickly with a fair wind, or can be becalmed or shattered by storms. GRRM out a lot of thought into these details, only for the TV show to lazily teleport people from A to B.

Ironically: 

The reason I am never specific about dates and distances is precisely so that people won't sit down and do this sort of thing.  My suggestion would be to put away the ruler and the stopwatch, and just enjoy the story.

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Chronology_and_Distances

Edit: To be clear, I find it frustrating too because I want to know *all* the details about the world and don't particularly care if they don't make sense.

Edited March 14 by Universal Sword Donor

[Quoth the raven,]

Jon Snow will be brought back to some twisted form of life by the white walkers.  Twisted in mind because of his single minded thoughts of Arya.  I don't think any of the house of the north will support Jon.  His support will mainly come from the wights and the white walkers because he will become one of them.  That will grant him an army of the undead which will be hard to stop.