How is Daenerys going to supply her army during the Invasion of Westeros?

[Craving Peaches]

48 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

As I say, if anyone's going to wake her up, it'll be Tyrion. She sees herself as saviour of the downtrodden smallfolk of Westeros and breaker of the wheel. Once she realises she'll be reigning over famine and corpses, she'll surely think again.

This is why I think it would be better off if Daenerys stays in Essos. Sure, she should come over with the dragons to help fight the Others; but I think if Daenerys, knowing that there wasn't really much pro-Targaryen sentiment amongst the smallfolk, knowing about the food crisis situation which she would make worse, and considering the fate of Astapor when she abandoned it, still chose to try and grab the Throne, it would be a villainous act. Much better for her to stay in Essos where she is wanted and needed.

[House Cambodia]

12 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

This is why I think it would be better off if Daenerys stays in Essos. Sure, she should come over with the dragons to help fight the Others; but I think if Daenerys, knowing that there wasn't really much pro-Targaryen sentiment amongst the smallfolk, knowing about the food crisis situation which she would make worse, and considering the fate of Astapor when she abandoned it, still chose to try and grab the Throne, it would be a villainous act. Much better for her to stay in Essos where she is wanted and needed.

I read it differently. She IS needed in Westeros. The famine-inducing cause is the coming Long Night. She's needed up north to fight The Others. I think like not too dissimilarly to the show, she'll rock up on Dragonstone, be met by Jon and be convinced that she and her dragons are needed to save humanity, so will lose her desire for the Iron Throne for a time. It's possible she realises that her troops are a liability and park them in Essos, but with her dragons she'll save the day (night) (try to).

[Craving Peaches]

2 minutes ago, House Cambodia said:

I read it differently. She IS needed in Westeros. The famine-inducing cause is the coming Long Night. She's needed up north to fight The Others. I think like not too dissimilarly to the show, she'll rock up on Dragonstone, be met by Jon and be convinced that she and her dragons are needed to save humanity, so will lose her desire for the Iron Throne for a time. It's possible she realises that her troops are a liability and park them in Essos, but with her dragons she'll save the day (night) (try to).

I meant long term (sorry if it wasn't clear). Short term she very much is needed to deal with the Others, but I don't think she is needed as monarch there.

Also, I don't think it is possible to combine her territories in Essos with Westeros due to logistics. So I think if Daenerys choses to become Queen of Westeros it is essentially giving up on Essos. Which if she choses to do, indicates she learnt nothing from the Astapor disaster.

[House Cambodia]

18 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

I meant long term (sorry if it wasn't clear). Short term she very much is needed to deal with the Others, but I don't think she is needed as monarch there.

Also, I don't think it is possible to combine her territories in Essos with Westeros due to logistics. So I think if Daenerys choses to become Queen of Westeros it is essentially giving up on Essos. Which if she choses to do, indicates she learnt nothing from the Astapor disaster.

She currently still believes it is her right ad solemn duty to sit the throne. Jon/realAegon might get her to think again. If she ends the Long Night and the populace of the continent credit her with sending winter back beyond the Wall, she might be welcome to rule Westeros. But the logistics of ruling two continents with no such infrastructure is formidable. Mind you, Alexander the Great carved up an empire in a few short years and might have ruled successfully if he hadn't died/been murdered young.

[SeanF]

There’s a sufficient surplus already in the East to afford armies of sellswords, and the Tiger soldiers.  Volantis should be able to manage food supplies for an expeditionary force of 25,000 or so.

Rather than aiming to rule big regions of Western Essos, in Dany’s shoes, I’d probably want a string of harbours and naval bases, running from Volantis to Pentos.

Edited April 27 by SeanF

[Darth Sidious]

Dany will have allies in the west before she comes. The people will have grown tired of the the Lannisters in the south. People will worry when the Others and their Stark servants control the north. Westeros will reach out to Dany and beg for help. Supplies will have to be brought from the East. Which Braavos, Free Volantis, and her followers will be happy to provide. 

[Angel Eyes]

42 minutes ago, Darth Sidious said:

Dany will have allies in the west before she comes. The people will have grown tired of the the Lannisters in the south. People will worry when the Others and their Stark servants control the north. Westeros will reach out to Dany and beg for help. Supplies will have to be brought from the East. Which Braavos, Free Volantis, and her followers will be happy to provide. 

Daenerys has to make it out of the Dothraki Sea first, and that's if she doesn't die from the infection she has.

[Aldarion]

17 hours ago, SeanF said:

Getting supplies from the Eastern cities should not be hard, because of their elites’ “glass jaw.”  Because 75-85% are chattels, and because wealth is concentrated in so few hands, they’re just one bad defeat away from disaster, and having their wealth confiscated.

Uh... logistics are hard. If she is getting supplies from Essos, that means that a) any army she decides to bring to Westeros will be small and b) any such army will be limited to few days' march from Westerosi ports. Two weeks at most.

Edited April 28 by Aldarion

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Uh... logistics are hard. If she is getting supplies from Essos, that means that a) any army she decides to bring to Westeros will be small and b) any such army will be limited to few days' march from Westerosi ports. Two weeks at most.

Sure, which is why I’m not expecting a force greater than 25-30,000 (similar to the Ottomans at Malta, or the forces that Justinian sent to Carthage).  I’d expect Volantis to provide a lot of shipping and logistical support (they must have an extensive bureaucracy to put together their armada). And, she’ll have to concentrate on taking ports and islands.

The whole idea of seemingly powerful States possessing a “glass jaw” interests me.  As well as naval superiority and tactical skill, Brett Devereaux attributes the ease with which Rome beat the Hellenistic states to the fact Rome could recover from defeats, quite easily, while their enemies were one big defeat away from disaster, just like the slaver coalition, or Volantis.  The Macedonians and Seleucids had vast military machines - but they had to deploy them to hold down unwilling subjects.

[Terrorthatflapsinthenight9]

17 hours ago, Craving Peaches said:

This is why I think it would be better off if Daenerys stays in Essos. Sure, she should come over with the dragons to help fight the Others; but I think if Daenerys, knowing that there wasn't really much pro-Targaryen sentiment amongst the smallfolk, knowing about the food crisis situation which she would make worse, and considering the fate of Astapor when she abandoned it, still chose to try and grab the Throne, it would be a villainous act. Much better for her to stay in Essos where she is wanted and needed.

That will be her tragedy, she will come to Westeros and have an essential part in saving it from the Others alongside the Starks, but will never find peace or hapiness and will eventually find death here.

[HexMachina]

I think not just with Dany but with Westeros in general GRRM's approach to his writing had kind of thrown logistics off balance where the food situation for a long Winter and another war is currently far more serious than he probably intended it to be. So honestly, if GRRM wants her to be able to sustain her army, he'll make something up to allow it, the same way he will make something up to allow the North to survive, or the Riverlands to recuperate after the devastation from the Wot5Ks. I don't have a problem with this either, i'd rather see the plot advance in interesting ways than GRRM get bogged down in these kind of logistics and nuances.

[Aldarion]

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Sure, which is why I’m not expecting a force greater than 25-30,000 (similar to the Ottomans at Malta, or the forces that Justinian sent to Carthage).  I’d expect Volantis to provide a lot of shipping and logistical support (they must have an extensive bureaucracy to put together their armada). And, she’ll have to concentrate on taking ports and islands.

Yep, though one should note that even such force will be only possible if she conquers cities on the eastern shore of the Narrow Sea first.

1 hour ago, SeanF said:

The whole idea of seemingly powerful States possessing a “glass jaw” interests me.  As well as naval superiority and tactical skill, Brett Devereaux attributes the ease with which Rome beat the Hellenistic states to the fact Rome could recover from defeats, quite easily, while their enemies were one big defeat away from disaster, just like the slaver coalition, or Volantis.  The Macedonians and Seleucids had vast military machines - but they had to deploy them to hold down unwilling subjects.

How resistant state is depends on several factors: social organization, administrative capacity and military organization. Some states could survive repeated military disasters while others fell apart after a single defeat. And "falling apart" itself may happen because of the weakness of the political authority (e.g. Byzantine civil wars post-Manzikert), but also could simply be that they have no more soldiers to call up on (e.g. Carthage after Battle of Zama).

That is why I am not a fan of a standing army of full-time professionals: especially in premodern contexts, state utilizing such an army is the very definition of "glass jaw". Sure, such an army may be powerful - but it is also expensive, limited in numbers and nearly impossible to replace.

Rome of the time however, much like the Byzantine Empire much later on, relied heavily on part-time landed soldiers. Such troops may not be as effective one-for-one as the full-time soldiers, but they are numerous and not too difficult to replace.

[Protagoras]

Ok, let's see

Daenerys will probably have access to the Iron Fleet as well as some similar sized ships. The Iron Fleet is currently at 61 ships, and is likely to increase. Assume 100 soldiers per ship (possible due to the size of the fleet) apart from the crew and add more similar-sized ships (like the gift from the 13) and we are talking about a force of 100 ships and 10.000 to be shipped. But it is very likely that she will, after the clusterfuck that is the battle of Mereen, have access to at least some parts of the Volantene fleet. 4 out of 5 on those ships are slaves and the slaves of Volantis are stirring against the Triarchs, and are in favor of the Red Priests and their prophecies of Dany as Azor Ahai. It will obviously be a battle first there between the loyalists and the revolters - so it will be hard to predict how many ships that are left. Assume say 100-200 boats maybe at most with a carrying size of say 150-200 soldiers at most. That's 15.000-40.000, so with the Iron Fleet + other ships we are talking a capacity of somewhere between 25-50.000 soldiers. But will Daenerys even have such a large force? Most likely not. 

 

When Daenerys returns to Mereen, with or without Dothraki - Barristan Selmy is likely dead, Tyrion has dealt with the Harpy but it has been bloody, a lot of treason, death and treachery has happened (The Pit fighters have most certainly turned against Barristan for example) and her forces, even after their likely victory, should have been heavily reduced after dealing with both the siege, the plague and the enemies inside Mereen. Some forces are also likely to stay in Meereen and Slavers Bay - Daenerys is unlikely to make her Astapor mistake again, so when she leaves her successors in Slavers Bay will be defended against insurgency. And that is before we even start to look at the food issue. In other words - when we discuss forces available to Daenerys for the conquest of Westeros, we are (guesstimate) talking about 5.000 unsullied, maybe 1.000 freemen and maybe 2.000 sellswords (the survivors from Windblown and Second Sons as well as some other sellsword company maybe that decides to join her). And that's kinda it - 8.000, maybe at the very most 10.000, before we start to add up the possible Dothraki. So how many Dothraki are we adding? Well - Khal Drogo had a horde of 40.000 and it was known as one of the larger ones. Too large even. We are rather looking at Khal Jhaqos horde that recently made contact with her. It is likely that Jhaqo has kept his Khalasar of ~20.000 that he took with him when Drogo's horde split - so even if Daenerys kills him and gets his whole Khalasar (unlikely) 20.000 is the highest possible number. I personally would be surprised if Daenerys gets more than 10-15.000 dothraki - maybe even less.

 

Then we have the question of pit stops /(which might mean casualties too). There has been some foreshadowing that Daenerys will visit and/or conquer Pentos and/or Volantis, (which seems a bit unlikely due honestly due to the fact that GRRM kinda needs to stop expanding his story) but it can happen in theory. They are however the likeliest places for solving the supply issue (Volantis sent a fleet full with soldiers to attack her, so they clearly have enough food if they feel they can support armies for offensive maneuvers) - but there are of course limits on how much that can be stored on said ships. But again, I doubt foodstuff will be a large problem simply because I doubt her army will be "that" huge in the first place and she likely will be well supplied when she leaves Essos and can probably easily import more food from Essos to say Dragonstone if she needs to (I assume she will have plenty of cash after the battles in Slavers Bay and maybe in other places in Essos, like maybe Pentos and/or Volantis. Volantis just sent an army against her - even if she chooses not to sack their city then they should be forced to pay up in gold and supplies). 

 

So, we are talking about a force between 15-30.000 and most likely in the lower end here. After all, the very professional Golden Company had issues with their landing, and they were 10.000. So assume a mixed force of somewhere around 15.000-20.000 in total and assume a landing at a port or a food rich place (Dragonstone, the Vale or the Reach are the likeliest places). That should be pretty doable - of course the supplies will run out sooner or later, but here's the thing - Daenerys NEED support in Westeros anyway. Like Aegon you need a starting army/"platform", but in order for her to "win Westeros" she needs Westerosi allies that are willing to fight for her and feed her army, something that Renly was able to do despite having a much larger force. Yes, food is scarce, but the peasants have suffered during the wars of the five kings and no one really cared - I don't see why Daenerys should feel such a moral responsibility if some people starve during her war as well.  As long as she does not excessively loot, burn and pillage (like say Tywin) of course. I really doubt few in Westeros apart from her enemies would blame her if she conducts her war like say Robb or Stannis do/did. And if a Westerosi lord decides to take food from the peasants to help her army survive then that lord is morally responsible for such an act - not Daenerys. That's how feudalism works. 

 

I also question the idea that Daenerys should stay in Essos because Westeros is fed up with Targs and Wars, while simultaneously expecting her to use her dragons and forces to fight the Others. Let's be real here - the Long Night is a Westerosi problem only. And if Westeros rejects her as a monarch, then I see no reason why she should do anything for a continent that doesn't want her. Indeed, that would be my exact position if I were Daenerys. If you people in Westeros are unwilling to accept me as a monarch, restore my dynasty to the throne and swear oaths of fealty then you can very much deal with the problem yourself, while I stay in Essos doing my thing as you all seem to have wished. This is why I don't pay much mind to ideas like say "the Starks are unwilling to give up their independence" and refuse to accept her. I mean, fine! Then the Starks themselves can deal with the problem on their own soil without her assistance too. Independence also means dealing with problems independently too. And if there is a food crisis in Westeros - well, maybe she should stay in Essos with her unwanted army and let the continent hash it out themselves vs the zombies. Seems like many anti-Targ fans want to eat the cookie and keep it and it doesnt come off as particulary realistic.

[Craving Peaches]

43 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

I also question the idea that Daenerys should stay in Essos because Westeros is fed up with Targs and Wars, while simultaneously expecting her to use her dragons and forces to fight the Others.

However, if the Others are a threat not confined to Westeros, then Daenerys still has an interest in defeating them to preserve her own kingdom in Essos if nothing else (there is also a prophecy motivation via her supposedly being Azor Ahai which followers of the Red Faith will probably try to encourage). I feel like it would diminish the scope of the Others somewhat if they were only confined to Westeros and so everyone could just migrate to Essos to avoid the danger.

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Yep, though one should note that even such force will be only possible if she conquers cities on the eastern shore of the Narrow Sea first.

How resistant state is depends on several factors: social organization, administrative capacity and military organization. Some states could survive repeated military disasters while others fell apart after a single defeat. And "falling apart" itself may happen because of the weakness of the political authority (e.g. Byzantine civil wars post-Manzikert), but also could simply be that they have no more soldiers to call up on (e.g. Carthage after Battle of Zama).

That is why I am not a fan of a standing army of full-time professionals: especially in premodern contexts, state utilizing such an army is the very definition of "glass jaw". Sure, such an army may be powerful - but it is also expensive, limited in numbers and nearly impossible to replace.

Rome of the time however, much like the Byzantine Empire much later on, relied heavily on part-time landed soldiers. Such troops may not be as effective one-for-one as the full-time soldiers, but they are numerous and not too difficult to replace.

Devereaux says Rome never had fewer than 110,000 soldiers serving, at any point between 200 and 168 BC.  Rome didn’t even need generals who were above average, in order to win, so great was its capacity to wage war.  An incompetent general could lose a battle, but he’d be replaced, and a fresh army and general sent out to win the war.

Of course, constant war was very gradually turning the soldier-farmers into landless soldiers, dependent on their generals for booty.  So, Rome transitioned to the model of the small (relative to population), professional army.  But, backed up by brilliant organisation.

[Protagoras]

21 minutes ago, Craving Peaches said:

However, if the Others are a threat not confined to Westeros, then Daenerys still has an interest in defeating them to preserve her own kingdom in Essos if nothing else (there is also a prophecy motivation via her supposedly being Azor Ahai which followers of the Red Faith will probably try to encourage). I feel like it would diminish the scope of the Others somewhat if they were only confined to Westeros and so everyone could just migrate to Essos to avoid the danger.

Even if that would be the case (unlikely, since we have seen no indication of it), Daenery's interest in it - apart from religious propaganda maybe, should be a very low priority. After all, in order to even pose a threat to Essos, the Others must first conquer Westeros (might be hard to d completely, since the sun is their enemy, so the more they push south the harder it should get) and then somehow (ice bridges?) cross to Essos. Honestly, I doubt ocean-crossing are part of their ability.

But in such a case, Daenery's best strategy by far is to wait. Years, if not tens of years. She should stay in Essos, deal with her many problems and enemies there and then - when the Others have conquered say the North and parts of Riverlands and are seen as a genuine world-ending threat the the current leadership cannot handle, when people are getting desperate and sermons for a religious miracle becomes more and more common - thats when she should send out your ravens over Westeros and promise to deal with the threat with her armies ans especially dragons, as long as her claim to the throne is accepted of course. Then every region and/or kingdom in Westeros can make their own choice. Submit to her dynasty and make her queen. Or fight the horde by yourself.

The point I am making is that Daenery's assistance should come with a price. Her dragons are not to be taken for granted and it is not unreasonable for her to demand the Iron throne if she can deal with a supernatural threat to humanity. And if the lords and smallfolk of Westeros are, for whatever reason, unwilling to pay that price then they can deal with the apocalypse themselves. And I don´t think this is a selfish position to hold. I would rather say it's pretty selfish to demand Daenerys help, then after the threat has been vanquished do a 180 and say "thanks, now you can leave - we don't want you here". 

[SeanF]

46 minutes ago, Protagoras said:

Even if that would be the case (unlikely, since we have seen no indication of it), Daenery's interest in it - apart from religious propaganda maybe, should be a very low priority. After all, in order to even pose a threat to Essos, the Others must first conquer Westeros (might be hard to d completely, since the sun is their enemy, so the more they push south the harder it should get) and then somehow (ice bridges?) cross to Essos. Honestly, I doubt ocean-crossing are part of their ability.

But in such a case, Daenery's best strategy by far is to wait. Years, if not tens of years. She should stay in Essos, deal with her many problems and enemies there and then - when the Others have conquered say the North and parts of Riverlands and are seen as a genuine world-ending threat the the current leadership cannot handle, when people are getting desperate and sermons for a religious miracle becomes more and more common - thats when she should send out your ravens over Westeros and promise to deal with the threat with her armies ans especially dragons, as long as her claim to the throne is accepted of course. Then every region and/or kingdom in Westeros can make their own choice. Submit to her dynasty and make her queen. Or fight the horde by yourself.

The point I am making is that Daenery's assistance should come with a price. Her dragons are not to be taken for granted and it is not unreasonable for her to demand the Iron throne if she can deal with a supernatural threat to humanity. And if the lords and smallfolk of Westeros are, for whatever reason, unwilling to pay that price then they can deal with the apocalypse themselves. And I don´t think this is a selfish position to hold. I would rather say it's pretty selfish to demand Daenerys help, then after the threat has been vanquished do a 180 and say "thanks, now you can leave - we don't want you here". 

Even someone as noble as Aragorn was willing to perish in the fight against Mordor.  But, he did expect to be crowned king, if victorious.

[House Cambodia]

7 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Even someone as noble as Aragorn was willing to perish in the fight against Mordor.  But, he did expect to be crowned king, if victorious.

To be fair, he didn't have a fAragorn rival 

[SeanF]

Just now, House Cambodia said:

To be fair, he didn't have a fAragorn rival 

Fortuitously, his main rival committed suicide.

[Protagoras]

18 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Even someone as noble as Aragorn was willing to perish in the fight against Mordor.  But, he did expect to be crowned king, if victorious.

Aragorn is a great example. I wonder what would have happened if some lords of Middle-Earth had refused Aragorn as king. I doubt Aragorn himself, as well as the other war winners - high or low, just would have accepted it. Tolkien most certainly would have presented it as a personal failure from those lords for being unwilling to give Aragorn his just due and making it very clear that they, not Aragorn, were in the wrong. He bled for them and enforced his claim not only by blood but by victor's right. 

And that's kind of my point. If you want assistance in dark times you simply cannot refuse to pay up. As I see it - either Denethor accepts the new king or Gondor is on its own. Not a very heroic stance in LotR, certainly but ASoIaF is not a high fantasy setting in the same way. Here, people do act in their own self-interest - so why should Daenerys be some sort of exception? And (large?) parts of this forum seem to think that she should deal with the Others out of the goodness of her heart and then leave, because she, somehow, also should accept that at least some people do not want her in charge despite desperately needing her help just seconds ago. And I find that not only unrealistic but also hypocritical and a case of double standard. If you don´t recognize Daenerys claim then you shouldn't expect her to help. And if you claim that the Targ claim has been lost - then isn't said claim restored if Daenerys, in the name of House Targaryen, reconquers Westeros from the Others?