The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)

[Gilgafresh the Bling]

[quote name='sholtzma' post='1687141' date='Feb 14 2009, 20.33']Is it possible that this is precisely when Lysa has the accidental pregnancy ala LF? If Hoster was stressed about dealing with his daughter's unwanted pregnancy, he might have just made the whole gang stay home. Also, the herbs she was given to abort would have been somewhat dangerous and she probably couldn't travel much at this time anyway. I can't remember the exact timeline but could it be a possibility?[/quote]
That would be a perfectly reasonable explanation, but…

I know there’s some debate about this, and I don’t think we know for sure, but some have suggested that Lysa was pregnant with LF’s child when she married Jon Arryn. ( - - citing Lysa’s comments to Cat about their children growing up together, Lysa’s “radiance” during the wedding, et al. as evidence).

In the Citadel there’s reference to Brandon Stark being 20 when he died. He was also 20 when he dueled Petyr. Petyr challenged Brandon shortly after the Brandon/Cat engagement announcement. Lysa visited a drunken Petyr while he was recovering from injuries sustained during the duel, and that’s when they had sex for the “first time” (implying other times later??? Nevertheless, a maidenhead was taken then, and it was Lysa’s). Of course, at the time he thought it was Cat. Whether Lysa was impregnated that first time or some time later we know that it happened shortly after or around the same time that Brandon set off to confront Rhaegar regarding the disappearance of Lyanna.

If all of that is correct then Brandon’s duel with Petyr, Petyr’s deflowering of Lysa and the subsequent pregnancy (and abortion?), and Brandon’s death all took place within a year. We know that the tourney at Harrenhal took place during the year of the false spring which GRRM has said was “a year or two” before the start of Robert’s Rebellion.

Without knowing the exact dates of some of these events it’s hard to say for certain, but I think that the whole Petyr/Lysa/Tansy abortion event happened well after the Harrenhal tourney. We know she couldn’t have become pregnant before that “first time”, and thus it couldn’t be a reason why the Tullys weren’t present at the tourney (assuming they weren’t). Remember also that Brandon was at Harrenhal so the duel, the taking of Lysa’s maidenhead, and any pregnancy must have taken place after the tourney.

I don't know if any of that makes sense, but I tried... :unsure:

FWIW… Something else I noticed is that Ned is said to be 18 during the Tourney at Harrenhal. I know Brandon is older than Ned yet Brandon is a mere 20 when he dies. If this is “a year or two” after the year of the false spring then Brandon can’t be much more than a year older than Ned. Also, as mentioned in the Citadel, the timing puts the Harrenhal tourney closer to “a year” before the start of the War rather than the “or two” that GRRM offers.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Greycox' post='1688765' date='Feb 16 2009, 19.48']FWIW… Something else I noticed is that Ned is said to be 18 during the Tourney at Harrenhal. I know Brandon is older than Ned yet Brandon is a mere 20 when he dies. If this is “a year or two” after the year of the false spring then Brandon can’t be much more than a year older than Ned. Also, as mentioned in the Citadel, the timing puts the Harrenhal tourney closer to “a year” before the start of the War rather than the “or two” that GRRM offers.[/quote]

In case you missed it, Lady Blackfish did a wonderful piece of reasoning on Brandon, Ned, and Petyr's ages [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31414&view=findpost&p=1552796"]here[/url]. If you're interested in figuring out ages, check out the whole thread starting [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31414&view=findpost&p=1539546"]here[/url] and give me some much needed help. ;)

[Howlin' Howland]

[quote name='Maia' post='1684988' date='Feb 12 2009, 20.02']When he was 7 and she was 9 or 10. I don't think that this constitutes improper behavior. For all we know it may be completely normal. In any case, there is no indication that Hoster kept Cat on a short leash - on the contrary he seemed to trust her implicitly.



How do you figure this? We have seen men in their 50-ties compete often enough and he may have been substantially younger than that, in his late 30-ties or early 40-ties during Harrenhal.



Brynden was still living with them at Riverrun, he only left with Lysa, when she married Jon Arryn.



Given how Hoster considered marrying Lysa to Jaime, it was something that affected them, though.



Nope, Cat has been betrothed to Brandon since she was [b]12, [/b]so there was every reason to mingle as they were practically in-laws already. The Tullys had to look for a new prospect for Lysa, too and both Brandon and Robert had younger brothers who may have fit the bill.[/quote]



I am genuinely confused. You jump down my throat for saying Hoster kept his daughters on a short leash because of their behavior with LF. Then you claim Cat and LF engaged in kissing games 5 years before she was engaged to Brandon.

Isn't it reasonable that Hoster knew his daughters had an adventurous streak and kept them away from the Harrenhall tourney because of it.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not obviously wrong.

Also, and I intend to look for this in my next re-read, I think there was one Cat chapter where she reacted like she was worried LF would tell Ed that they'd slept together. Not meaningful in itself but I think its not impossible Cat and LF did sleep together.

[lce]

I may have just missed this part in the book but I don't seem to recall any mention of Rickard Stark at the tourney either. It seems more that GRRM left a lot of details out about the tourney because they either take away from the suspense or were never that important to the plot lines. I know all of us fanatics on here would love a detailed set of events now that we are entrapped by the story but they might just be semantics.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='lce' post='1691461' date='Feb 18 2009, 20.10']I may have just missed this part in the book but I don't seem to recall any mention of Rickard Stark at the tourney either. It seems more that GRRM left a lot of details out about the tourney because they either take away from the suspense or were never that important to the plot lines. I know all of us fanatics on here would love a detailed set of events now that we are entrapped by the story but they might just be semantics.[/quote]

Given we know Brandon, Ned, Lyanna, and Benjen were all at Harrenhal, and given the oft repeated refrain of "there must always be a Stark in Winterfell" it is very likely Rickard isn't at the tourney and is at home cooling his heels. Seems like dad sent the kids this time.

[althaz]

[quote name='Howlin' Howland' post='1689005' date='Feb 17 2009, 14.58']Not meaningful in itself but I think its not impossible Cat and LF did sleep together.[/quote]
Actually, Cat thinks to muses to herself about Ned taking her maidenhead and I think it's pretty clear nothing happened after that. Therefore LF and Cat never, ever had sex.

[Shewoman]

Althaz--do you mean nothing happened BEFORE that (Ned's taking Catelyn's maidenhead?). ?

[silentsister]

[quote name='Satin' post='1643622' date='Jan 10 2009, 07.06']I'm a supporter of the whole L+R=J, and I think there is a lot to support it. So one question to those who do think that Jon is Rhaegar's son. We know that Melisandre had a vision to wake a dragon with the blood of a king. Perhaps she is misinterpreting her vision, but what if she's not? What if the blood she needs is Jon's? I mean, if you believe the whole L+R=J, then Jon has the right blood in his veins. This thought crossed my mind, and the only reason I doubt it is because he already has Ghost.[/quote]
There may be others Melisandre could use.

[Szar]

There's also the possibility that it has already happened -- i.e. Daenerys (who certainly had 'the blood of a king'), or even her child.

[silentsister]

[quote name='Szar' post='1694452' date='Feb 20 2009, 18.45']There's also the possibility that it has already happened -- i.e. Daenerys (who certainly had 'the blood of a king'), or even her child.[/quote]
Good point Szar.

[Lady Nymeria]

[quote name='silentsister' post='1694102' date='Feb 20 2009, 15.29']There may be others Melisandre could use.[/quote]


You have a point, but I do wonder. Remember when Dany's in the House of the Undead and sees the vision of a "great stone beast took wing, breathing shadow fire"? We know Mel uses shadows and that she's looking to awaken a dragon with the blood of a King. What if it's not a real dragon, but some sort of shadow dragon? Just a thought.

Originally I thought Mel was just mistaken, but when she ended up at the Wall with Jon, I had to wonder.

[Shewoman]

Isn't Littlefinger's sigil the Braavos of Titan? I think that's a big stone figure as well.

[Szar]

The Titan of Braavos is a statue, yes, but Littlefinger doesn't use it as his sigil -- he uses the mockingbird, I believe. One of his ancesters did use the Titan, though.

[Gilgafresh the Bling]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1688880' date='Feb 16 2009, 18.16']In case you missed it, Lady Blackfish did a wonderful piece of reasoning on Brandon, Ned, and Petyr's ages [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31414&view=findpost&p=1552796"]here[/url]. If you're interested in figuring out ages, check out the whole thread starting [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=31414&view=findpost&p=1539546"]here[/url] and give me some much needed help. ;)[/quote]

That’s some good stuff there, Danny. :thumbsup: I’d love to help but I’m afraid I’ll have to stretch my muscles and (re)acclimate a bit more before I could come close to offering anything on par with what’s already there.

Something that came up in the TOJ/KG thread reminded me to ask you something and I figured this might be the better place.

I believe that you subscribe to the theory that the reason for the KG’s presence at the TOJ is that there is a legitimate royal baby there (i.e. a Targaryen heir), right? If that were the case then we’d have to assume that a Rhaegar/Lyanna marriage took place. I’m fine with that, but do you think Elia would have to be in on this as well? Maybe not “okay” with it, but definitely aware of it?

And, if she does know of this marriage does that imply knowledge and/or complicity on the parts of others? (Specifically, Doran and maybe Ashara - - - or more generally, Dorne and Starfall?) I think Arthur’s involvement would be assumed too, but I’m not sure about any others. It’s a small leap from Elia to Doran, and a similarly small leap from Arthur to Ashara (and maybe even from Elia to Ashara). We know that Ned is somehow honored in Starfall, and we’re introduced in AFFC to some of Doran’s plans involving restoration of the Targs, but I was just wondering what you think about that.

[Shewoman]

I don't think that Elia would have to be involved in Rhaegar and Lyanna's wedding (if there was one). Catherine of Aragon wasn't present when Henry VIII married Anne Boleyn (okay, it's a different world with different issues and Henry was only functionally, not legally, polygamous. But I'm sticking with it).

When you mention Arthur Dayne, are you thinking of him as something like Rhaegar's best man? That's possible. We do hear that Dorne was upset at the way their Princess Elia was treated, which suggests that they knew that Rhaegar was not exclusively faithful to her. I tend to doubt that Doran was complicit in this. But I think the guest list at this wedding was probably quite small (based largely on the fact that we haven't heard anyone mention such a marriage taking place).

This is probably overly picky. Greycox, you say "We know that Ned is somehow honored in Starfall," but I'm not sure I really see that. Edric Dayne's nickname may actually honor some other Ned or Eddard. I"m not sure how old he was at the end of the war (I think he's 12 in ASOS), but he may have been given that name before Ned came to Starfall. Ned's respected for returning the sword Dawn, but I don't have the impression that there's a "Ned Stark Day" celebrated there.

[Gilgafresh the Bling]

"Ned Stark Day" :rofl:

"Honored" probably wasn't the best way to describe it, so I suppose "doesn't appear to be hated in Starfall" would be a better phrase. This, of course, is assuming that Ned Stark is Ned Dayne's namesake, but like you said we don't know that. It is yet another suspicious connection though.

Regarding Arthur: Perhaps a best-man, but that's not exactly what I was thinking. I think we're told that him and Rhaegar were close, but if R+L=married=J and J@TOJ then I would assume that Arthur was well aware of everything that was going on there.

[EinulfrStark]

All i know is is IF Jon turns out to not be Neds son, then i will like him less than i already do, don't get me wrong Jon is a cool character, hes a good guy, with a cool sword a white wolf and is now Lord Commander of the Nights Watch and that's why i believe a lot of people really like Jon, but for me that's just not enough, He has not done anything overly cool, and he lacks personality say compared to other characters like Arya(my second favorite character) and The Hound, Tyrion even little Finger or Baristan Selmy. The Starks are my favorite Family by far, so if it turns out Jon isnt one, well then there will just be another negative for him, but things could change, hopefully he grows more of a personality and starts to do more in the coming books.

[SFDanny]

Greycox, thanks for the kind words about the thread on ages. If you do figure anything out please post it. I need all the help I can get.

Regarding the rest of your post let me respond and please forgive the length. I do believe, as you say, the presence of all three remaining loyalist members of the Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy strongly supports the presence of a Targaryen heir who takes precedence over Viserys. That doesn't necessarily mean it is a child of Lyanna and Rhaegar. It could be Aegon (assuming a baby switch like what Jon does with Gilly,) but I think that possibility very unlikely. If it is Rhaegar and Lyanna's child, then that means a polygamous marriage took place, and Jon seems to be the most likely candidate for that child. Indeed Jon is the only [i]known[/i] character, at this point, that fits the bill without serious introduction of crackpot notions.

I am agnostic on whether or not Elia approved of, or perhaps the better phrase would be that she was "accepting of," the relationship with Lyanna. I think if we accept Daenerys vision of Rhaegar speaking to Elia and saying there must be one more child because the dragon has three heads and combine this with her presence at the Harrenhal tourney, then it doesn't take a great jump to see Elia may have known what was going on, but that's not the same as approval. To me it all depends on how successful Rhaegar is in getting Elia to buy into the importance of his vision of the prophecy he and Aemon discuss. If she believes as Rhaegar did, then she may well have approved of a second wife - especially considering her frail health.

We also don’t know how friendly Elia and Rhaegar are, but I don’t think we have reason to believe they were not. It was an arranged marriage, not one motivated by love, but that does not mean, just as in Ned and Catelyn’s case, they did not grow to love each other or at least to care for each other. But not everyone thinks that love or marriage means an exclusive sexual relationship, and if Prince Oberyn's views were shared at all by his sister, then it may well mean Elia had no problem with her husband loving another woman or marrying another woman. We just can’t be sure at this point.

However, even if Elia accepted the relationship for whatever reasons, I have a hard time seeing this acceptance would go far beyond a very small circle - especially to the Prince of Dorne. There is a reason Aerys is nervous about Dorne's support in the rebellion to the point he keeps Elia and her children so close to him. I don't think it is just his paranoia - as in "just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get you." When Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna Doran likely did express his concerns for his sister and the possibility of a non-Dornish pretender to the throne, and I'd be certain the Red Viper was beyond angry with any perceived slight to his sister, and much more so with Rhaegar’s conduct with Lyanna.

If pressed, my guess is that Rhaegar shares his conspiracy to fulfill his version of the prophecy with very few - probably including Lyanna, Elia, Ser Arthur, Aemon, with possibly The White Bull, Ser Oswell Whent, and the rest of the Kingsguard (with varying degrees of possibility) minus Jaime added to this list. Ashara and others (Wylla for example) may also have helped but I don't know this means they understands this part of the purpose behind Rhaegar's actions. The one other person I can think of who might be in on it is only based on my pure speculation that Marwyn may have been at the Tower of Joy. He certainly knows about the prophecy, and if my speculation about the need for a maester at the Tower is correct, he could be a co-conspirator.

All of which doesn’t really deal with your last two points. I think Ned is “honored” in Starfall because of his promise to Lyanna and his actions after the events at the Tower of Joy. Ned not only treats Ser Arthur’s body with respect, building a cairn for his remains, but he returns Dawn to the Daynes. That by itself, while honorable, should get him strung up or beheaded or at the very least thrown into a dungeon cell, especially since Dorne is still at war against the rebels. I think he goes well beyond this. Ned brings the heir to the Targaryen throne to Starfall and asks the Daynes to help him hide the child’s identity. He asks them to take in Wylla and to maintain the story that Wylla is Jon’s mother. He also likely speaks to them about what his trip to their city will mean about the rumors about Ashara and him being Jon’s parents. There is no way Ned carries out his plan to hide Jon’s identity without the active support of House Dayne. He has to appeal to their own sense of honor and duty to the Targaryen throne to make it work, and I think he obviously succeeded.

I see Doran’s plans as separate. If Doran Martell had known the real Targaryen heir was in Winterfell masquerading as Ned’s bastard, then Princess Arianne would have been pledged to marry Jon, not Viserys. Doran does what he can, mostly out of a need for revenge for his sister and her children, to support an alliance with the exiled Targaryens, but I don’t see these as tied to either Rhaegar’s plans before his death or Ned’s plans to hide Jon.

[bacchys]

[quote][b]SFDanny wrote:[/b]

Now, if you told me that a GRRM approved script has Jon being born nine months after Lyanna dies, then you might have a point. As it is, you don't.[/quote]
Even then I wouldn't think much of it as evidence for the novels. As any reader of books and watcher of movies can tell you, much gets left on the cutting room floor when a good book is made into a movie. The mystery of Jon's parentage might be more than a script can hold, even if it is a fairly important piece of the novels (when all is said and done). What is out in the open is an incredibly complex tale already. Too many undercurrents could drag it under insofar as a movie or HBO series goes.

[Stalker]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1700082' date='Feb 26 2009, 00.58']However, even if Elia accepted the relationship for whatever reasons, I have a hard time seeing this acceptance would go far beyond a very small circle - especially to the Prince of Dorne. There is a reason Aerys is nervous about Dorne's support in the rebellion to the point he keeps Elia and her children so close to him. I don't think it is just his paranoia - as in "just because you're paranoid, doesn't mean they aren't out to get you." When Rhaegar runs off with Lyanna Doran likely did express his concerns for his sister and the possibility of a non-Dornish pretender to the throne, and I'd be certain the Red Viper was beyond angry with any perceived slight to his sister, and much more so with Rhaegar’s conduct with Lyanna.[/quote]

I see that one often, but those that present the claim all seem to have forgoten Viserys.