The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)

[howland_reed]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1710760' date='Mar 6 2009, 12.50']Pure speculation, based on the fact that Dany is Barren and that Jon is either not a Targaryen/not part of the triumvirate/sterile/staying in the NW and keeping his vows. Relies on epileptic trees.[/quote]

Of course, any guess as to who the "third head" is would be pure speculation. There does need to be three dragonriders though. Other than Dany, our best guess is Jon being #2, and from there, #3 is completely up in the air. This is a discussion board, so there's no harm in speculating that the third is yet another Targaryen (as the dragons seem to be more amiable toward them, from the short interaction with Brown Ben Plumm). But for all we know, it could be Tyrion or Arya or...Brown Ben Plumm.

[howland_reed]

[quote name='Shewoman' post='1710766' date='Mar 6 2009, 12.51']Have you read Macbeth? It sounds like there's a prophecy that proclaims victory for Macbeth but (spoilers for Macbeth) he dies. Maggie maz Dur's (I can never get her name right) response to Dany sounds an awful lot like that sort of prophecy to me.[/quote]

By that, do you mean her prophecy is false and purposely misleading to Dany? Cause I got the same sense and that Dany really isn't infertile.

[Errant Bard]

[quote name='howland_reed' post='1710780' date='Mar 6 2009, 18.59']Of course, any guess as to who the "third head" is would be pure speculation.[/quote]Err, yes, the question was asked, and that's what I said. And I didn't say there was harm in it. I don't get what you are trying to argue against here.

[Shewoman]

Yes, Howland. Dany herself ponders whether or not she is capable of getting pregnant (somewhere in ACOK, I think, around the time of her close encounter with Irri).

[Szar]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1710760' date='Mar 6 2009, 18.50']Ah, but that's evading the point. With that scenario (or others in the same vein), Jon can be proclaimed Grand Mogol, god of all things and everyone would believe it, because he has the power to make them believe, or make them [b]feign[/b] to believe, more to the point.

What I addressed would be a scenario where he would become known and truly recognized as trueborn son of Rhaegar and Lyanna before he had the power to enforce it. Because that usually the starting point of the "Jon King" or similar theories: first he gets recognized by the whole world, then [i]because he is recognized[/i] he gets the girl and the throne (princesses cannot do anything without a hidden heir to save their butt, it is known)[/quote]
What Prince of the North said was, "I speculate that [Jon being a legitimate Targaryen] will become known throughout the realm in such a way that it will be considered to be true." There was not even anything about him becoming king.

[CiaranAnnrach]

Couple of things.

First off, the Targaryen line doesn't necessarily [i]have[/i] to survive this, you know. Daenerys could be the last Targaryen.

Second, Errant_Bard, you make it sound so cliche that the Others could be destroyed. I mean, consider the circumstances. Ancient artifacts that were long forgotten are resurfacing. Dragons have returned - which I might add, they did not have Dragons the last time the Others invaded. The prophecy of a war for Dawn - what is a dawn, but the ending of a dark period and the rising of another? And then you have Cold Hands, presumably to teach Bran...something. Who knows quite a lot about the secrets of the Shadow Keep - maybe he is the one Night's Watch whose name they don't speak of?

Lastly, you have to keep in mind that, assuming the R+L=J theory, Jon and Daenerys are part of different sets of heads. Daenerys is part of the three heads who are the offspring of the Mad King - the other two being Viserys and Rhaegar. Jon, in turn, is the third head of Rhaegar, along with the daughter and son Rhaegar bore with Elia who were slaughtered by Sandor Clegane. Interestingly enough, they are both the third and final head as well.

So, just saying, there is very likely to not be a third head of the Targaryen line.

[the silent speaker]

[quote]You can't really wing a critical plotpoint like that mid-series.[/quote]
Who says it's a critical plot point? (It's [i]a[/i] plot point, but so is Sansa's fondness for lemon cakes; there's nothing yet to say that it will have a particularly strong bearing on anything. In a sense this comes to the same place, since if it [i]doesn't [/i]have a bearing on anything much then the answer amounts to "some woman; most of them are" and having named her Wylla (or assigned Jon to a Ned-Ashara tryst)in the beginning GRRM will have no pressing reason to change that, so it still stays the same throughout the series. But that only reinforces the idea that "He wiouldn't change it in the middle" is a null argument.)
[quote]With that in mind, if you assume that Martin had R + L = J in mind from the start, there's several subtle hints that support this theory from the gates.[/quote]
But if you don't assume that, then those hints disappear.
[quote]Point is, I can't see another reason why Martin continues to emphasize Rhaegar's place in history, and Rhaegar and Lyanna's meeting at the Harrenhal tournament, unless Jon is his son.[/quote]
Um, War of the Usurper? Rhaegar's place in history is emphasized because Rhaegar had a major role in shaping that history. His reasons for acting as he did are highlighted because they tie back into magic and prophecy and the Doom of Valyria, all of which is coming to a head now with the Others' War.

[punkypickett]

[quote name='CiaranAnnrach' post='1710903' date='Mar 6 2009, 12.26']Lastly, you have to keep in mind that, assuming the R+L=J theory, Jon and Daenerys are part of different sets of heads. Daenerys is part of the three heads who are the offspring of the Mad King - the other two being Viserys and Rhaegar. Jon, in turn, is the third head of Rhaegar, along with the daughter and son Rhaegar bore with Elia who were slaughtered by Sandor Clegane. Interestingly enough, they are both the third and final head as well.[/quote]

If you role with this a little farther, it will lead you to another 3rd and youngest child whose mother also died while giving birth to him... Tyrion, the third head!

If R+L=J, then there are a lot of parallels between these three regarding parentage.

[Prince of the North]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1710204' date='Mar 6 2009, 03.01']Such as? I cannot think of a single way that wouldn't break the very core of ASOIAF: the PoV-enforced stress on unreliability of information and independent thinking.

Please, give an example of how it would be done. No cop-out "but Martin is skilled and can do it even if no-one else can think of a way" please.[/quote]
[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1710760' date='Mar 6 2009, 11.50']Ah, but that's evading the point. With that scenario (or others in the same vein), Jon can be proclaimed Grand Mogol, god of all things and everyone would believe it, because he has the power to make them believe, or make them [b]feign[/b] to believe, more to the point.

What I addressed would be a scenario where he would become known and truly recognized as trueborn son of Rhaegar and Lyanna before he had the power to enforce it. Because that usually the starting point of the "Jon King" or similar theories: first he gets recognized by the whole world, then [i]because he is recognized[/i] he gets the girl and the throne (princesses cannot do anything without a hidden heir to save their butt, it is known)[/quote]
Good points, if I'm reading you correctly, and I agree that it would be nonsensical for Jon to be recognized as the true heir to the Iron Throne with no poltical/military power behind him. If someone just started going around saying R+L=J it would be met with about the same reaction in KL as the shriveled wight hand got. I think it would have to happen the other way around. That is, someone with some military power would have to come to believe Jon is the legitimate heir and/or PtwP and support him and then things could snowball from there because then other powerul leaders would take notice.

I guess I "could" see this happening in a couple of ways. Maybe the R+L=J revelation could become more widely believed throughout the North due to Howland Reed's knowledge and much of the North would then get behind Jon? Or perhaps Dany will "'go east to go west' and 'go north to go south'"? ;) Thus, she may go to the Wall first, meet Jon, and for whatever reason Martin desires (magic, dragons, etc.) she learns that R+L=J and throws in with him. Either way Jon would then have some power at his back and other Lords would hear him out then, I think.

Complete and utter speculation, I know, but I wouldn't have too much problem with something like this, I guess :dunno: Actually, along the lines of your "cop out" statement above I do think Martin is skillful and whatever he does with the story will be fine with me. It's just fun to think "what if"? :)

[Errant Bard]

[quote name='Szar' post='1710877' date='Mar 6 2009, 20.10']What Prince of the North said was, "I speculate that [Jon being a legitimate Targaryen] will become known throughout the realm in such a way that it will be considered to be true." There was not even anything about him becoming king.[/quote]there was :
[i]However, I think he will have to get at least some of the Seven Kingdoms involved in the affairs of the NW in order to have a prayer in the upcoming war with the Others. If R+L=J turns out to be true, then no one is in a better position than Jon to unite the kingdom forces, imo.[/i]
No king, but it follows the exact same line of thought: first get known/recognized, second [i]because of it[/i] become the not-king of the whole realm. I don't see what semantics change to my objection about order of events (first known, then does things, unlike your "first does things, then gets known") and about spread of the word, gullibility of the lords and forces willing to support him.

[quote name='CiaranAnnrach' post='1710903' date='Mar 6 2009, 20.26']Second, Errant_Bard, you make it sound so cliche that the Others could be destroyed. I mean, consider the circumstances. Ancient artifacts that were long forgotten are resurfacing. Dragons have returned - which I might add, they did not have Dragons the last time the Others invaded. The prophecy of a war for Dawn - what is a dawn, but the ending of a dark period and the rising of another? And then you have Cold Hands, presumably to teach Bran...something. Who knows quite a lot about the secrets of the Shadow Keep - maybe he is the one Night's Watch whose name they don't speak of?[/quote]Uh, no, I just have questions about:
[list]
[*]How they know the Others are truly destroyed forever
[*]Why they believe it
[*]Why they would disband an organisation they was useful 8000 years without seeing a single Other.
[/list]

Of course I have my doubts on how it will pan out, considering:
[list]
[*]Ancient artifacts were not ancient during the first war
[*]Dragon were likely around during the last invasion, more than now. After all they died out, they didn't just spring into being in between the Other War I and now
[*]The first war was likely called the war for the Dawn too, after all the invasion was called "the long night"
[*]Cold Hands is a mere mook, during the first war they had children of the forest themselves
[*]People actually knew about magic back then (they erected the wall, you see)
[/list]
and the fact that they felt the need to keep a watch for 8000 years. Why wouldn't they think the others were down forever back then, and if so, why didn't they take steps for them to really be dead forever in 8000 years?

[quote]Lastly, you have to keep in mind that, assuming the R+L=J theory, Jon and Daenerys are part of different sets of heads.[/quote]I don't think it works like that... you see, Aemon himself thought he was the second head, and he is far from being Dany's sibling. The dragon has three heads simply points at a triumvirate with Targaryen dominance, anything else is speculation that can verse into the crackpot.

[Errant Bard]

[quote name='Prince of the North' post='1711010' date='Mar 6 2009, 21.47']Good points, if I'm reading you correctly, and I agree that it would be nonsensical for Jon to be recognized as the true heir to the Iron Throne with no poltical/military power behind him.[/quote]Yes, exactly. It applies for anything of import, really: King of the North, Targaryen, Lord of Winterfell, Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. It is a political play, not something where people grovel when [s]Gandalf[/s] [s]Belgarath[/s] Howland snaps his fingers. :)

[quote]I guess I "could" see this happening in a couple of ways. Maybe the R+L=J revelation could become more widely believed throughout the North due to Howland Reed's knowledge and much of the North would then get behind Jon?[/quote]That is slow, though, and I don't think, considering how Howland was treated in Harrenhal, how Meera and Jojen were welcomed, how Howland didn't say a thing so far, how Boltons don't have any interest in believing or how Northerners who just rebelled against a king of seven kingdom don't much care for the Targaryen name (

SPOILER: ADWD

"We have a king and his name his [i]Stark[/i]"

-seems all Lyannas kick ass), that it would do any more waves than, to take an example, Stannis' letter denouncing Joffrey as spawn of incest, beside putting Jon in a situation where Stannis and other would kill or sacrifice him.

[quote]Or perhaps Dany will "'go east to go west' and 'go north to go south'"? ;) Thus, she may go to the Wall first, meet Jon, and for whatever reason Martin desires (magic, dragons, etc.) she learns that R+L=J and throws in with him.[/quote](the Wall is West :P) But in that case, there is no need for Jon to be a Targaryen or to be known as one, at least for the realm. After all he would have a full blooded Targaryen with dragons right next to him, and wouldn't be in a position to usurp her rights. Okay, it would make people more willing to believe (provided there was a bard singing the tale to the smallfolk, or something for the Lords in it) but in that case being a Targergaryen is irrelevant compared to being a Stark.

[quote]Actually, along the lines of your "cop out" statement above I do think Martin is skillful and whatever he does with the story will be fine with me. It's just fun to think "what if"? :)[/quote]As a rule, if you cannot imagine any satisfying way to wrap something up the way you want, chances are it will suck if it goes that way, but more importantly, if you answer like that you close off the discussion, because you just oppose blind faith to arguments. One cannot discuss with faith. :P

[Guest Other-in-law]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1710760' date='Mar 6 2009, 12.50']How do they know they actually did eradicate the Others forever, that it's different from 8000 years before? Gandalf is going to tell them and [i]they will believe it[/i]? They all get a divine message? All ice on earth melts and the whole North is colonized?[/quote]
Honestly, I'm not even sure if all the ice on the planet melting and the north being colonised would even proof it. Where do the Others come from in the first place? From another planet (the Qartheen thought dragons came from another moon)? From under the earth or mountains? From deep beneath the polar seas? From eggs? From some frozen hell? From another dimension? Until that's answered, how could you know that there aren't more laying dormant somewhere? Or even if they just spontaneously come into being when the magical conditions are right?

[quote]Pure speculation, based on the fact that Dany is Barren and that Jon is either not a Targaryen/not part of the triumvirate/sterile/staying in the NW and keeping his vows. Relies on epileptic trees.[/quote]
I don't get the part about the epileptic trees.

[Errant Bard]

[quote name='Other-in-law' post='1711083' date='Mar 6 2009, 22.31']Until that's answered, how could you know that there aren't more laying dormant somewhere? Or even if they just spontaneously come into being when the magical conditions are right?[/quote]Indeed, but even more than that, even if it's answered, how do you know it is answered right? Martin has been pretty big on showing us than even the truest of visions/prophecies/knowledge can and will be interpreted wrongly, not believed or simply ignored.


[quote]I don't get the part about the epileptic trees.[/quote]Right, and for a good reason, I forgot the link: [url="http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/EpilepticTrees"]http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/EpilepticTrees[/url]

[Prince of the North]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1711081' date='Mar 6 2009, 15.30']Yes, exactly. It applies for anything of import, really: King of the North, Targaryen, Lord of Winterfell, Lord Commander of the Night's Watch. It is a political play, not something where people grovel when [s]Gandalf[/s] [s]Belgarath[/s] Howland snaps his fingers. :)

That is slow, though, and I don't think, considering how Howland was treated in Harrenhal, how Meera and Jojen were welcomed, how Howland didn't say a thing so far, how Boltons don't have any interest in believing or how Northerners who just rebelled against a king of seven kingdom don't much care for the Targaryen name (

SPOILER: ADWD

"We have a king and his name his [i]Stark[/i]"

-seems all Lyannas kick ass), that it would do any more waves than, to take an example, Stannis' letter denouncing Joffrey as spawn of incest, beside putting Jon in a situation where Stannis and other would kill or sacrifice him.[/quote]
Hmm, I was under the impression that Howland Reed had a good, honorable reputation in the North? Maybe you're right, maybe the North has basically forgotten about the Crannogmen? Then, yes, everyone would just say "meh" and continue with their petty game o' thrones ;) Another thing that's interesting to think about here is just why people could find a way to get behind Jon? I think some could want to support him due to being the legit heir, others could want to support him due to being the PtwP, and still others may do both. All this, of course, depends on the circumstances of the R+L=J revelation and just what people's self-interests are.
[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1711081' date='Mar 6 2009, 15.30'](the Wall is West :P)[/quote]
Ah, but the world is round, no? ;)
[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1711081' date='Mar 6 2009, 15.30']But in that case, there is no need for Jon to be a Targaryen or to be known as one, at least for the realm. After all he would have a full blooded Targaryen with dragons right next to him, and wouldn't be in a position to usurp her rights. Okay, it would make people more willing to believe (provided there was a bard singing the tale to the smallfolk, or something for the Lords in it) but in that case being a Targergaryen is irrelevant compared to being a Stark.[/quote]
Um, I am talking about Dany possibly throwing in with Jon and, thus, he would have her military might backing him up. Now just why would she ally with him? It could be because he's the legit heir and his claim is greater than her own but I would suspect that it would have more to do with him being the PtwP, third head o' the dragon, etc. because, after all, why would she go to the Wall first if not because she's come to see the problem of the Others as the thing that needs addressing first and foremost? Once again, if the War for the Dawn is lost then there will be no Iron Throne over which to bicker :)
[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1711081' date='Mar 6 2009, 15.30']As a rule, if you cannot imagine any satisfying way to wrap something up the way you want, chances are it will suck if it goes that way, but more importantly, if you answer like that you close off the discussion, because you just oppose blind faith to arguments. One cannot discuss with faith. :P[/quote]
I guess we disagree here. While I do like to speculate on what may happen I have faith in Martin and how he will ultimately decide to tell this story. I have no problem giving him the benefit of the doubt because he hasn't disappointed me yet :)

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1711108' date='Mar 6 2009, 16.53']Right, and for a good reason, I forgot the link: [url="http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/EpilepticTrees"]http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/EpilepticTrees[/url][/quote]

Thank you, thank you, EB. I went from your link to [url="http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ASongOfIceAndFire"]http://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/ASongOfIceAndFire[/url] and couldn't stop laughing. Loved it!

[howland_reed]

I'm confused by all those who say Jon would be the legit heir.

Even if R + L = J were true, wouldn't he still be considered a bastard, since Rhaegar was still married to Elia? Granted, a bastard with very royal blood, but a bastard nonetheless, so wouldn't Dany still have the better claim?

[quote]Who says it's a critical plot point? (It's a plot point, but so is Sansa's fondness for lemon cakes; there's nothing yet to say that it will have a particularly strong bearing on anything. In a sense this comes to the same place, since if it doesn't have a bearing on anything much then the answer amounts to "some woman; most of them are" and having named her Wylla (or assigned Jon to a Ned-Ashara tryst)in the beginning GRRM will have no pressing reason to change that, so it still stays the same throughout the series. But that only reinforces the idea that "He wiouldn't change it in the middle" is a null argument.)[/quote]

Perhaps plot point was the wrong word. The better word is mystery. When an author introduces a character who does not know his own mother, and his father doesn't even reveal the name to his wife, he captures the reader's attention with the story's most prominent mystery. This mystery is introduced early, along with Lyanna's "promise." Both of these will have to be resolved by the conclusion of the series, and if the answer ends up being Wylla, then I'll frankly be disappointed in Martin's storytelling skills.

[Prince of the North]

[quote name='howland_reed' post='1711139' date='Mar 6 2009, 16.21']I'm confused by all those who say Jon would be the legit heir.

Even if R + L = J were true, wouldn't he still be considered a bastard, since Rhaegar was still married to Elia? Granted, a bastard with very royal blood, but a bastard nonetheless, so wouldn't Dany still have the better claim?[/quote]
There is precedent among Targs for polygamy.

ETA: I don't think I've seen this much activity in an R+L=J thread in a long time! Cool! :thumbsup:

[Sirius]

And even if he does not turn out to be legitimate (assuming L+R = J), if something ever happened to Dany, Jon would be next in line for the Targaryens, as the only known living person with any blood ties. Also, as someone mentioned before, the dragons seem for receptive to being around people of Valyrian backgrounds, as opposed to other people, which may throws him back into the dragon-rider theory.

[CiaranAnnrach]

[quote name='punkypickett' post='1711005' date='Mar 6 2009, 14.44']If you role with this a little farther, it will lead you to another 3rd and youngest child whose mother also died while giving birth to him... Tyrion, the third head!

If R+L=J, then there are a lot of parallels between these three regarding parentage.[/quote]

Third head of...what though. The three heads have no meaning outside of the Targaryen Dragon prophecy. And Elia did not die giving birth, she was murdered.

In regards to Errant_Bard. The last war with the Others was around Brandon the Builder's time, yes? Dragons were in existence during that time, I'm sure, but they were in Valyeria. I don't believe they made an appearance in Westeros until the Targaryens fled there after the Doom. The first war against the others was primarily fought between the first men and the children of the forest. They worshiped the old gods, not quite the same magic as that which Mellisandre wields - especially considering Mellisandre's god is all bout fire, which the Others hate, while the Old Gods were more focused on natural things, which the Others preyed upon.

[quote]I don't think it works like that... you see, Aemon himself thought he was the second head, and he is far from being Dany's sibling. The dragon has three heads simply points at a triumvirate with Targaryen dominance, anything else is speculation that can verse into the crackpot.[/quote]

I'm confused at what exactly you're trying to say here, to be honest. I don't recall Aemon ever claiming to be the second head, but upon further research I withdraw the original statement. Though yours isn't quite accurate either. According to Martin, the third head of the dragon doesn't necessarily have to be a Targaryen. The Targaryens also quite often had more than three children - Aemon himself was the third son out of some five children. It just so happens the "three heads of the dragon" is related to a prophecy which Rhaegar strongly believed in.

I still maintain that the Targaryen line doesn't necessarily [i]have[/i] to survive this.

[CiaranAnnrach]

Also. Let's keep in mind Daenerys has a very, very strong animosity towards the Stark house, along with the Baratheon and Lannister houses. If Jon is not the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna...I don't see why she would let the bastard son of one of the key men responsible for the downfall of her family live. Or, for that matter, Tryion, the brother of the man who killed her father.