The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)

[bacchys]

[quote name='seasoup' post='1705564' date='Mar 3 2009, 00.43']The big problem I have with ANY other theory is, why are 3 members of the Kingsguard protecting Lyanna if the rightful King is fleeing? They wouldn't.[/quote]
As mentioned, your timeline is off. Rhaegar predeceases Aerys.

As for the Kingsguard, you've touched on one of the more heated sub-topics of R+L=J. If you read through the many incarnations of this thread, you'll find it hotly debated more than a few times.

It is very strong evidence that the rightful Targaryen heir lies within the ToJ at the time of the fight. I don't think it's proof, because the witness is a dream (that Martin has said we shouldn't take too literally) and because I think it quite possible that something else was going on there that wasn't the KG fighting to the death to protect the Targaryen heir. I even think it possible that the KG would look to protect Rhaegar's bastard (though that thought is highly unpopular with some) because the Targaryen clan is getting rather thin at the time the fight at the ToJ is concerned.

[SFDanny]

Welcome to the board, seasoup.

Like you, I've argued that the presence of all three remaining loyal members of the Kingsguard at the Tower of Joy is strong evidence that the Targaryen heir is there and not at Dragonstone. I won't bore you with all my thoughts on the subject as there are many posts in these threads on the topic from many people, but I would point out that the Kingsguard's presence doesn't necessarily mean that Jon is that heir. I think he is by far the most likely candidate, but Aegon (assuming a baby swap like what happens with Gilly) is a distant second possible candidate. Others could fit the bill as well if we want to assume things for which we have no evidence. Anyway, other than the timeline mistake your post shows you've thought about this quite a bit. One piece of advice, fwiw, I'd stay away from the words "proof" or "proves." Unless you want to spend a very long time defending what is only likely, as what is certain. Again, welcome.

[Szar]

As someone who argued against a possible marriage between Rhaegar and Lyanna, I've had to bow to SFDanny's reasoning, btw. :P I more or less agree with him now.

[seasoup]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1705635' date='Mar 3 2009, 01.11']fwiw, I'd stay away from the words "proof" or "proves." Unless you want to spend a very long time defending what is only likely, as what is certain. Again, welcome.[/quote]

Heh, thanks guys :) I tried reading through the previous posts, but holy dear god I don't think I've ever come across such a long thread ever, and I've come across some long threads before. I read about 1/3 of them and consider that a heroic effort. Thanks for the pointers on the idiosyncrasies of this board. Well, crap. I would possibly doubt you, but with about 3000 posts on this message board between you, to my one, we'll go with your timeline.

Where were the other Kings Guard at that time?
* Lord Commander Ser Gerold Hightower, 'The White Bull' - killed at Tower of Joy
* Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning - killed at Tower of Joy
* Prince Lewyn Martell - Killed at Trident
* Ser Barristan Selmy - Wounded at Battle of the Trident
* Ser Oswell Whent - killed at Tower of Joy
* Ser Jaime Lannister - Sack of King's Landing
* Ser Jonothor Darry - Killed at Trident

3 at the Tower of Joy
3 on the Trident
1 at King's Landing, the one King Aerys despised and... most likely... wouldn't have trusted with anything important.

Whatever was at the Tower of Joy was as important as the Battle of the Trident. Lyanna ain't it!... Most likely.

Since the Kingsguards were there guarding something/someone, it indicates that a member of the royal family was there, so either Lyanna married a Targaryen or was pregnant by one. The only known male Targaryens old enough to get her pregnant were Aerys and Rhaegar. Would anyone else have gotten the Kingsguard there?

Does anyone know how much time passed between the Trident, the Sack of King's Landing, the break of the siege on Storm's End, and the tower of joy?

[Lady Nymeria]

[quote name='bacchys' post='1705533' date='Mar 2 2009, 22.57']One knock against Jon being the trueborn son of R and L, I think, is that Eddard moves immediately to naming Stannis as the rightful King once he learns the truth of Cersei's children. It's not very strong, I don't think, because Eddard has spent fifteen years publicly claiming Jon as his own and supporting the Baratheon crown. But it's interesting that Jon doesn't even seem to come to mind when he's thinking of the Iron Throne.[/quote]

Well, Jon had already taken the black and as such given up his right to titles. I can't imagine Ned asking Jon, a boy of 16, to break his vows and come riding into King's Landing to claim his right to the throne.

[Shewoman]

You suggest that a pregnant PRincess Elia is still alive, but she was killed by Gregor during the Sack. It's Dany's mother (whose name I don't remember) who is pregnant.

[bacchys]

[quote name='Satin' post='1705856' date='Mar 3 2009, 09.19']Well, Jon had already taken the black and as such given up his right to titles. I can't imagine Ned asking Jon, a boy of 16, to break his vows and come riding into King's Landing to claim his right to the throne.[/quote]

I wouldn't imagine that, either. Nor are we privy to all of Eddard's thoughts during that time. But we are privy to many of them.

It's not that we don't have an "Of course, Jon is the true King" musing, but we don't have any connection of Jon to the Iron Throne in Eddard's thoughts.

As I said, I don't think it's strong evidence. But it's something else to ponder.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='seasoup' post='1705718' date='Mar 3 2009, 05.00']Does anyone know how much time passed between the Trident, the Sack of King's Landing, the break of the siege on Storm's End, and the tower of joy?[/quote]

We know from Ned's arrival in King's Landing in AGoT that it takes about two weeks (a "fortnight") for him to travel from the Ruby Ford to the city. Given the slowness of Robert's wagon it is not unreasonable to shorten this time to about ten days when we think of Ned leading the vanguard of Robert's forces in a race to King's Landing from the victory at the Trident. With the rest of it, I tried to do some back of the envelope calculations a while back and came up with [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=26782&view=findpost&p=1434470"]this[/url]:

[indent]From the Sack of King's Landing to Robert's arrival (and Ned's departure.) -- 4 days

From Ned's departure from King's Landing to his arrival at Storm's End -- 16 days

From Ned's arrival at the siege of Storm's End to his arrival at the Tower -- 9 days

Add in at least one day to accept the surrender and arrange the disposition of forces at Storm's End and we get a total of 30 days from the sack to Ned's arrival. A time that would coincide exactly with the 8 months option given us by GRRM as the time difference between Jon and Dany's name days.[/indent]

These are only my figures, based on some great work by [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=26782&view=findpost&p=1434003"]Ran[/url] and others, but perhaps it is a start in trying to answer your question.

[seasoup]

[quote name='Shewoman' post='1706009' date='Mar 3 2009, 11.17']You suggest that a pregnant PRincess Elia is still alive, but she was killed by Gregor during the Sack. It's Dany's mother (whose name I don't remember) who is pregnant.[/quote]

Oops, thanks. I meant Queen Rhaella, I'll update that.

[seasoup]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1706109' date='Mar 3 2009, 12.45'][indent]From the Sack of King's Landing to Robert's arrival (and Ned's departure.) -- 4 days

From Ned's departure from King's Landing to his arrival at Storm's End -- 16 days

From Ned's arrival at the siege of Storm's End to his arrival at the Tower -- 9 days[/quote]

Thanks :)
How long from the Trident to King's Landing?

[bacchys]

10 to fourteen days.

[SFDanny]

seasoup, it cannot be stressed strongly enough that my figures are only my attempt to arrive at a [i]realistic [u]minimum[/u] time needed[/i] for Ned to travel from the Trident to the Tower of Joy. He could have taken much longer to do these things, and, if Martin so chooses, he could do them much faster - he would have to ignore realism to do it much faster, however.

[Stalker]

[quote name='bacchys' post='1706030' date='Mar 3 2009, 16.33']I wouldn't imagine that, either. Nor are we privy to all of Eddard's thoughts during that time. But we are privy to many of them.

It's not that we don't have an "Of course, Jon is the true King" musing, but we don't have any connection of Jon to the Iron Throne in Eddard's thoughts.

As I said, I don't think it's strong evidence. But it's something else to ponder.[/quote]

It is no evidence at all. Either way.

Again, people are forgeting Viserys. And Dany.

[Shewoman]

Since Aegon is apparently dead, Viserys and Dany are both behind Jon in the succession (if Jon is the legitimate son of Rhaegar--if he isn't, then Jon is out). The crown goes from Aerys to Rhaegar, his eldest son, and then to Rhaegar's eldest son and then to all his other sons in birth order. Then it would go to Aerys' second oldest son and then to his son and all sons after him. I don't think women could rule in the Targaryen regime, but if they could no women would be considered until all the males had had their chance (or died). Obviously if Aegon showed up and could document that he was, in fact, Rhaegar's son, that would put him at the top of the food chain since he was older than Jon.

[Sirius]

Just like to point this out, because I'm not sure how many of you remember your highschool biology, but... The fact that all of Ned's sons with Catelyn have the Tully looks and colouring is not a coincidence if you ask me. Ned's Y chromosome is weaker than Catelyn's X, resulting in their sons resembling her. Now it can't be said for sure that Ned's looks would yield to all other women's, but I also don't think that it is a stretch to use this as evidence of Jon's parentage. Jon looks like a Stark, and he is the only boy in the family that does look like a Stark. I think this just adds more credence to the suggestion that Jon is Lyanna's son, hopefully by Raegar. :)

[seasoup]

[quote name='Shewoman' post='1706625' date='Mar 3 2009, 17.08']Since Aegon is apparently dead, Viserys and Dany are both behind Jon in the succession (if Jon is the legitimate son of Rhaegar--if he isn't, then Jon is out). The crown goes from Aerys to Rhaegar, his eldest son, and then to Rhaegar's eldest son and then to all his other sons in birth order. Then it would go to Aerys' second oldest son and then to his son and all sons after him. I don't think women could rule in the Targaryen regime, but if they could no women would be considered until all the males had had their chance (or died). Obviously if Aegon showed up and could document that he was, in fact, Rhaegar's son, that would put him at the top of the food chain since he was older than Jon.[/quote]

Though this was my initial position because I thought Rhaegar outlived Aegon, but if Rhaegar died first then doesn't Viserys become the heir, not a child of Rhaegar?

[bacchys]

[quote name='seasoup' post='1706759' date='Mar 3 2009, 19.33']Though this was my initial position because I thought Rhaegar outlived Aegon, but if Rhaegar died first then doesn't Viserys become the heir, not a child of Rhaegar?[/quote]
Normally, no. And in this particular circumstance I think it would still have been no.

Were Viserys a grown man, I could see him becoming King ahead of any of Rhaegar's heirs because of the threat the Rebellion posed to the Realm. But since there are no adult, male Targaryens at the moment in time we're talking about it, that kind of exigency doesn't come into play.

[seasoup]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1706263' date='Mar 3 2009, 14.01']seasoup, it cannot be stressed strongly enough that my figures are only my attempt to arrive at a [i]realistic [u]minimum[/u] time needed[/i] for Ned to travel from the Trident to the Tower of Joy. He could have taken much longer to do these things, and, if Martin so chooses, he could do them much faster - he would have to ignore realism to do it much faster, however.[/quote]

No worries, just trying to establish a timeline of approximate whereabouts of the Kingsguard and when. Were the three at the ToJ there this entire time? Did they arrive there when the battle of the Trident was being waged? Could Rhaegar have gone to the Tower of Joy with 6 Kingsuards, left 3 behind and taken the rest to the Trident? Where was Rhaegar before the Trident? ToJ, King's Landing?

[seasoup]

[quote name='bacchys' post='1706774' date='Mar 3 2009, 18.43']Normally, no. And in this particular circumstance I think it would still have been no.[/quote]

So, we have three possibilities if R+L=J is true, because Rhaegar died before Elia.

1) Rhaegar married Lyanna and is a polygamist.
2) Rhaegar divorced Elia and married Lyanna.
3) Lyanna was just his mistress, and Jon is a bastard.
a) Either Aerys or Rhaegar legitimizes Jon
b) Jon is just a bastard.

1 - I've heard there is polygamy in the Targaryen background, so this is possible.
2 - Doesn't seem likely to me
3a - Could be, Aerys was mad and something pissed him off enough to kill Brandon and Rickard.
3b - Doesn't seem like there would be three members of the Kingsguard guarding a bastard. Bastards aren't heirs unless legitimized, otherwise there are plenty of Robert bastards to take the thrown before Stannis or Renly.

The more I think about this the less it seems to fit despite all of the clues.

[Piper]

[quote name='King of the Wolf Pack' post='1706690' date='Mar 3 2009, 17.36']Just like to point this out, because I'm not sure how many of you remember your highschool biology, but...[/quote]

Well I don't remember much of mine, but I think its not the most productive thing in the world to hold Westeros to real world genetics. GRRM can do what he wants in this regard, Gregor Mendel be damned.


[quote name='seasoup' post='1706829' date='Mar 3 2009, 19.35']3) Lyanna was just his mistress, and Jon is a bastard.
a) Either Aerys or [b]Rhaegar [/b]legitimizes Jon[/quote]

Rhaegar could not, I believe, legitimate a bastard. Only the king can do that, and Rhaegar died before his father and thus never possessed that power.