The Lyanna + Rhaegar = Jon Thread (Part VI)

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1723415' date='Mar 18 2009, 02.12']According to Errant Bard's timeline [url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?showtopic=31411&st=0"]here[/url] there was a month between the death of Robert and the attempt of poisoning. I don't know if that's enough time to get from King's Landing to Vaes Dothrak. It's a pretty big distance for a medieval type of travel.
The first message, with Robert's order to kill her, was sent almost two months before the attempt.[/quote]
I'm certainly aware of EB's timeline, and while I've taken exception to a few points with him in the thread you reference, I admire the work. However, even if we accept his timeline we have to show that the message is sent before Robert's death, if your point is correct. We don't have any indication that it was, and EB's timeline doesn't claim that it was. We only have speculation based on how long we think it might have taken for a message to have travelled that far. On the other hand, we have do evidence that Varys is commanded to send the message to Ser Jorah when Robert dies. No disputing that. When you have something more tangible showing something different, I'd be interested.


[quote name='Rinso' post='1723415' date='Mar 18 2009, 02.12']The reasons for the support are unknown, but the way I see it, it's hard to deny that there is support.[/quote]
Seems to me the nature and quality of that "support" is the whole question. Illyrio puts the Viserys and Daenerys up for a relatively short period of time and makes a tremendous profit when he sells Dany to Khal Drogo. Both of them have a part in sending a spy along with the Targaryens under cover of his role as a "bodyguard." Varys sends a message to Ser Jorah countermanding an earlier order he sends to kill her. Prior to the birth of the dragons, isn't that the sum total of their "support"?

[Errant Bard]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1723495' date='Mar 18 2009, 09.03']I'm certainly aware of EB's timeline, and while I've taken exception to a few points with him in the thread you reference, I admire the work. However, even if we accept his timeline we have to show that the message is sent before Robert's death, if your point is correct. We don't have any indication that it was, and EB's timeline doesn't claim that it was.[/quote]Actually, that was an assumption I made, to sync the storylines, with a conservative estimation of the time needed for a message to travel to Vaes Dothrak. IIRC, the word still travelled too fast for my taste, but there were other events to take into account so I couldn't stretch the time it took to reach Jorah more.

Anyway, my timeline has a lot riding on estimations so it cannot and should not be used to back up detailed analysis. GRRM is not very meticulous in making a timeline work, and he can make something impossible happen (like Sam traveling in the past after he leaves eastwatch, for example)

[Rinso]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1723495' date='Mar 18 2009, 04.03']I'm certainly aware of EB's timeline, and while I've taken exception to a few points with him in the thread you reference, I admire the work. However, even if we accept his timeline we have to show that the message is sent before Robert's death, if your point is correct. We don't have any indication that it was, and EB's timeline doesn't claim that it was. We only have speculation based on how long we think it might have taken for a message to have travelled that far. On the other hand, we have do evidence that Varys is commanded to send the message to Ser Jorah when Robert dies. No disputing that. When you have something more tangible showing something different, I'd be interested.[/quote]
There is no evidence that the message with the order of killing Dany was sent with too big a delay. Robert was pretty clear that he wanted the job done quickly and surely. Besides, if Varys sent the save message when Robert died, shouldn't they have heard news about it as well around the time when it reached Ser Jorah?

[quote]Actually, that was an assumption I made, to sync the storylines, with a conservative estimation of the time needed for a message to travel to Vaes Dothrak. IIRC, the word still travelled too fast for my taste, but there were other events to take into account so I couldn't stretch the time it took to reach Jorah more.[/quote]
So it could have reached Jorah even slower than I thought? Which makes less likely the option that Varys sent the save message as late as Robert's death.

[quote post='1723495' date='Mar 18 2009, 04.03']Seems to me the nature and quality of that "support" is the whole question. Illyrio puts the Viserys and Daenerys up for a relatively short period of time and makes a tremendous profit when he sells Dany to Khal Drogo. Both of them have a part in sending a spy along with the Targaryens under cover of his role as a "bodyguard." Varys sends a message to Ser Jorah countermanding an earlier order he sends to kill her. Prior to the birth of the dragons, isn't that the sum total of their "support"?[/quote]
Is this little help? The selling to the Dothraki had a promise of a military strenght for Viserys, which was something he could never have gotten on his own. And he and Dany had lived with great comforts in Illyrio's home for almost a year before he sold her to Drogo, not for a short time.

[Errant Bard]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1723512' date='Mar 18 2009, 09.40']So it could have reached Jorah even slower than I thought? Which makes less likely the option that Varys sent the save message as late as Robert's death.[/quote]Or quicker. There isn't really a way to definitely tell, when it comes to travel times and Martin.

I didn't read all your argument, as St Patrick hasn't been kind with my head since yesterday, but my own assumptions for the timeline were that the word had had to be flown by bird to at least the free cities, maybe Qohor, where the caravan would pick it up and relay it to whoever asked. If I remember correctly, It had to be like that because I assume the dothrakis to be rather fast in travel, and they still took six months or so to go from Pentos to Vaes Dothrak, while Robert's offer had to go faster, just so it actually arrived before Dany's child was born. Remember that what spurred Robert to have Dany assassinated is hearing she was with child. Jorah was the informant, he only knew one month after Dany herself knew, he had to send a message, the message had to travel the exact same way it came back, and all of this in less than 6/7 months.

But heh, GRRM can make caravans, ravens, boats, or riders go extremely fast when he desires, so it could be possible to have a message reach in less than a month. It doesn't seem likely to me, considering the caravan has to cross the dothraki sea, but it's possible, after all GRRM had Tyrion seemingly go from the Wall to the crossroad Inn in less than two weeks, while Catelyn slogged her way from king's landing in two months or so.

[Rinso]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1723538' date='Mar 18 2009, 05.31']I didn't read all your argument, as St Patrick hasn't been kind with my head since yesterday, but my own assumptions for the timeline were that the word had had to be flown by bird to at least the free cities, maybe Qohor, where the caravan would pick it up and relay it to whoever asked. If I remember correctly, It had to be like that because I assume the dothrakis to be rather fast in travel, and they still took six months or so to go from Pentos to Vaes Dothrak, while Robert's offer had to go faster, just so it actually arrived before Dany's child was born. Remember that what spurred Robert to have Dany assassinated is hearing she was with child. Jorah was the informant, he only knew one month after Dany herself knew, he had to send a message, the message had to travel the exact same way it came back, and all of this in less than 6/7 months.[/quote]
According to your timeline, the offer from Robert had to be sent around two months before the catspaw tried to poison Dany in Vaes Dothrak, but that's not the argument. What matters is the warning from Varys and Illyrio which arrived along with the attempt to poison Dany. Given that you say that the Dothraki had to travel for 6 months from Pentos to Vaes Dothrak, I find it even more unlikely that this warning was sent from King's Landing when Robert died and still reached Dany just when the catspaw of Robert tried to poison her.

[Errant Bard]

I don't recall any warning, is it an ADWD spoiler? I always thought Jorah discovered the assassination offer when the caravan arrived in Vaes Dothrak, getting in touch with his usual contacts or rumors, and since he's an intelligent guy, it all followed from that. I don't think there is any need for warning, as knowing there is a bounty on Dany's head is warning enough, and I don't think there is a possibility of a specific warning, as Robert and Littlefinger's scheme has nothing to do with who does it, in fact anyone can take up their offer and act on it in a myriad of ways.

[Rinso]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1723569' date='Mar 18 2009, 06.19']I don't recall any warning, is it an ADWD spoiler? I always thought Jorah discovered the assassination offer when the caravan arrived in Vaes Dothrak, getting in touch with his usual contacts or rumors, and since he's an intelligent guy, it all followed from that. I don't think there is any need for warning, as knowing there is a bounty on Dany's head is warning enough, and I don't think there is a possibility of a specific warning, as Robert and Littlefinger's scheme has nothing to do with who does it, in fact anyone can take up their offer and act on it in a myriad of ways.[/quote]
It's not from ADWD, it's in AGOT. There was a warning from Illyrio about the bounty. Not about the catspaw himself, of course, but about the general bounty on Dany's head.

[Errant Bard]

It's Jorah talking to Dany, isn't it? He lied, that's all. There was no warning, there was just the bounty, only, as he tells her later, he had decided to stop working for Robert.

[Rinso]

But how did he knew about the bounty? He was working for Varys, which is not the same as working for Robert. Besides, if he worked for Robert, why did he saved her? He was still sending messages to Varys up until ACOK, so at this point he hadn't stopped yet.

ETA: In ASOS, when Jorah confesses that he worked for Varys, he says that there was a letter from Varys, warning about the bounty (in AGOT he says that the letter was from Illyrio, but they are working together anyway) and that Varys wants Dany watched but not harmed.

[Errant Bard]

How did he know? I don't know, how did the wineseller know? That he works for Robert increases the chances he had contacts and information about what the guy wants, but he could simply have learned it with rumors or random informants. I find it more credible that he saved her because he took a fancy to her, than because he got orders to. For all purposes, he stopped working for Varys that day in the grass.

I cannot recall any message he sent afterwards in ACOK.

[Rinso]

In ASOS he says the the last message he sent to Varys was in Qarth, so that places it in ACOK. The wineseller knew because Robert's council spread the word. He may have heard it in the Free Cities or whenever and it still may have not reached Drogo's khalasar. And again, Jorah worked for Varys, not for Robert. It's not the same.

[The Boar of Gore]

Question: in Jojen's story of the Knight of the Laughing Tree (i.e. the tourney at Harrenhal), who is the laughing girl with purple eyes that the shy wolf dances with? The shy wolf is Ned, and purple eyes suggests a Targaryen but which one? Could Ned have gotten together with her and fathered a child? If Lyanna didn't have a baby in her bed of blood then what was her bed of blood and what did she make Ned promise? Or could there be two mystery babies, one Lyanna and Rhaegar's and one Ned and purple-eyed laughing girl's?

[A wilding]

The laughing girl with purple eyes is Ashara Dayne.

[Errant Bard]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1723602' date='Mar 18 2009, 11.47']ETA: In ASOS, when Jorah confesses that he worked for Varys, he says that there was a letter from Varys, warning about the bounty (in AGOT he says that the letter was from Illyrio, but they are working together anyway) and that Varys wants Dany watched but not harmed.[/quote]Ok, I had to wait to get to my books. I was wrong.

Anyway, for the letter from Varys to arrive at the same time as the first attempts, I would think it more likely it was written at the same time Robert offered the reward.

Also, about Jorah: [i]"I am no man's creature. I took the eunuch's gold, yes. I learned some ciphers and wrote some letters, but that was all - "[/i]
I persist in thinking he played double agent. He does not obey Varys, he takes his money for something Varys would have known from someone else anyway: [i]"If I had not told them someone else would have. You know that."[/i]
He's an opportunist, and a cynic, and keeps his options open (he wants to go home, too), but he would not harm Dany.

[Rinso]

[quote name='Errant Bard' post='1725110' date='Mar 19 2009, 01.59']Anyway, for the letter from Varys to arrive at the same time as the first attempts, I would think it more likely it was written at the same time Robert offered the reward.[/quote]
Which was my point all along, cause part of the argument with SFDanny was when it was written.

[SFDanny]

[quote name='Rinso' post='1725125' date='Mar 19 2009, 02.21']Which was my point all along, cause part of the argument with SFDanny was when it was written.[/quote]

Ahh, but if I remember correctly our argument wasn't around whether it is "more likely" the letter was written earlier, something I think the evidence for is very shaky at best - for all the reasons EB has discussed and more, but rather whether or not "[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=33416&view=findpost&p=1721871"]it is as clear as day[/url]" that Varys and Illyrio are working to help Viserys and then Daenerys get back on the Iron Throne. My point is that there is nothing "clear" about this at all. In fact, many facts point in the opposite direction. So much so, that in combination with the hints about the mummer's dragon and the spoiler information we've discussed I've come to lean to a very different interpretation of Varys and Illyrio's actions prior to the birth of the dragons. I'm not asking you to come to the same conclusion, but I don't find the assumption that so often is made about these two men's loyalties persuasive at all.

[Rinso]

[quote name='SFDanny' post='1725144' date='Mar 19 2009, 03.03']Ahh, but if I remember correctly our argument wasn't around whether it is "more likely" the letter was written earlier, something I think the evidence for is very shaky at best - for all the reasons EB has discussed and more, but rather whether or not "[url="http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?s=&showtopic=33416&view=findpost&p=1721871"]it is as clear as day[/url]" that Varys and Illyrio are working to help Viserys and then Daenerys get back on the Iron Throne. My point is that there is nothing "clear" about this at all. In fact, many facts point in the opposite direction. So much so, that in combination with the hints about the mummer's dragon and the spoiler information we've discussed I've come to lean to a very different interpretation of Varys and Illyrio's actions prior to the birth of the dragons. I'm not asking you to come to the same conclusion, but I don't find the assumption that so often is made about these two men's loyalties persuasive at all.[/quote]
From the timeline reasons that EB discussed, I came to the conclusion my intial assumption was right and that it's [i]highly[/i] unlikely that a warning written as late as Robert's death would reach Dany on par with the first attempt to kill her. And we did argued about that, because it was connected with the whereabouts of Varys' loyalties.
But for the whole thing we'll have to agree to disagree. To me, Varys and Illyrio's doings provide beneficial support to Viserys and Dany from the get-go. Without them, they would have been beggars on the streets without home and without the back-up of a Dothraki military strenght. It's not Varys and Illyrio's fault that Viserys got himself killed out of stupidity and malice, or that Drogo died etc.
As for the mummer's dragon, he/she doesn't have to be connected with Varys and Illyrio at all. That's pure assumption there, for which there are no clues. And the spoiler information we discussed, confirms that if they support anyone, aside from themselves, it's the exiled Targaryens.

[Prince of the North]

Yes, I think Varys and Illyrio were helping Viserys and Dany from the beginning but, of course, some things have happened along the way that no one could have predicted. The only, admittedly unsubstantiated, theory I can come up with that may connect Varys and Illyrio to a "Mummer's Dragon" is that when it comes to something this important (trying to restore the Targs to power) they could very well have a fake Targ heir in the wings as a back-up plan. I guess that could make sense.

Although, it probably doesn't make any more sense at htis point than a pretender coming out of nowhere to try and grab the power for themselves. :dunno:

[Errant Bard]

Someone helping can also be someone wanting to control, or not wanting the same thing as the one helped. Just look at Jorah and Dany. Maybe it's not so clear cut one way or another as you two are arguing.

[dragomort]

Believing that one such as Varys would put all his eggs in one basket is a bit of wishful thinking or over-simplification of the character to a gross extent. Whatever his end-game is he is known as a spider for good reason and his web is larger than a single strand by anyone's measure.

Back on the topic though, I have to ascribe to the R+L=J theory as I came up with it quite independently upon a second or third reread a while back before finding others had the same thought. There are a plethora of clues that point to it, but only if you're looking for them. That said, Martin can be devious as to where the clues will end up taking us as readers, so I would be far from calling it a certainty regardless.

I think the one aspect everyone in this thread at least (I've not gone back to the older ones, so apologies if it was discussed before) is that Rhaegar was [i][b]obsessed[/b][/i] with his prophetical offspring being the child whose song was that of [i][u][b]Fire[/b][/u][/i] and [u][i][b]Ice[/b][/i][/u] (the bolded words in particular being what is often glossed over, not that he was obsessed as has been pointed out already), which also happens to be the title of the series in case anyone missed it :eek: Does that seem to be obvious to anyone else that with those two clues alone you might naturally associate their respective houses with such a prophecy before we even get to anything else?

Also of importance that has been hinted at a few times, but rather glossed over is that Martin is a ridiculously[b] tragic[/b] romantic (if you know of any 'happily ever after' tales in Westeros in recent years I'd love to hear a few of them) and such a coupling as Romeo and Juliet crossed with Troy fits his style to perfection in my opinion.

Given that this mystery seems the first one brought up (first chapter hints at aspects of it, iirc) while still being unresolved and that such a solution would tie up the title of the series (Ice and Fire in one person now in addition to a theme) at the same time as answering so many questions about the previous generation (if you don't wonder why the Kingsguard was at the ToJ or anything about the battle there and what would make Ned lie for throughout 14 years to all of those living closest to him you can't have much of an imagination) while propelling the series forward (clearing up the past alone tends to do that, while bringing whatever this prophesy into play is a new angle if nothing else as well) I think it's an excellent theory.