Swine flu outbreak in Mexico

[Arbor Gold]

Do you think the government will try to keep them on message? Do you think that they will accept being on message, or do you think they will have to be forced on message?

They haven't yet.

[awesome possum]

We have an influenza pandemic every fall and winter, but no hubbub is made of it. Give it a swank name and say it's from a foreign country that we're taught to feel superior over in the first place, and suddenly there's reason to panic and prepare for the end of days?

Pfft, I say. PFFT!

[Lord O' Bones]

Are we going to compare every new viral strain to 1918 forever?

Must be a Yankee fan.

[Xray the Enforcer]

Must be a Yankee fan.

:rofl:

Man, if that doesn't bring Os back, I don't know what will.

[crannoggirl]

We have an influenza pandemic every fall and winter, but no hubbub is made of it. Give it a swank name and say it's from a foreign country that we're taught to feel superior over in the first place, and suddenly there's reason to panic and prepare for the end of days?

We don't exactly have an influenza pandemic every year in the sense the government was worried about. We have the normal human virus every year, slightly mutated from last years strain so people get sick with it again, but it doesn't have the potential to kill huge amounts of the human population.

This was blown out of proportion, but I think they were trying to be as safe as possible, because an influenza virus with swine and human DNA (or bird or horse DNA for that matter) could have the potential to cause a major pandemic and wipe out a decent fraction of the human population. There was just no way to know if this would be deadly or turn out to be nothing like it did. The media way over-hyped it which was wrong and scared people unnecessarily, but I think all the statements from the government were on point. They were trying to be prepared for the worst case scenario and hindsight is 20/20.

I did fly recently, and was definitely rolling my eyes at the number of people on the airplane wearing masks.

Influenza is special because its genome allows it to jump species more easily then most other viruses. The pig, bird, horse, and human strain are similar. They all have 8 chromosomes of RNA, and when they are replicating in close proximity to each other you can occasionally get some mixing of the chromosomes that still creates 2 viable hybrids. Statistically about every 100 years or so you'll have a hybrid that will be virulent among humans and cause an epidemic killing lots of people, because the animal RNA will make it dissimilar enough to human strains that we have no immunity. This is the normal course of the virus and has been going on this way for centuries. With modern travel, we can spread stuff much easier then we could for most of human history. During the last major outbreak in 1918, there was reasonable ability to travel and we had a major pandemic.

Statistically speaking we have much more chance then not of having some sort of major influenza pandemic within the next 20-30 years, the government and CDC know this, and that's why they're so hyper-alert. They're basically waiting for it to happen and don't want to look like idiots if they're caught off guard.

[Security Squish]

We don't exactly have an influenza pandemic every year in the sense the government was worried about. We have the normal human virus every year, slightly mutated from last years strain so people get sick with it again, but it doesn't have the potential to kill huge amounts of the human population.

The flu certainly killed a lot of people last year, well above the normal thershold acording to the CDC, which sounds like a huge amount of the population to me. Lot's more than swine flu. So I would say people should still be more worried about that and take the vacination when I offer it to them. :tantrum:

[Isis]

1918..1918..1918..

Is that all people use as a justification in cases like these? Are we going to compare every new viral strain to 1918 forever?

:lol:

Yes. The quite obvious reason that all potential pandemic strains of flu will be compared to this is because it's the worst flu pandemic on record so it demonstrates how bad things can get.

Whoever said we get pandemics every year is incorrect. We get flu epidemics every year. They are different things. That's why they have different names.

I think some people need to educate themselves just a tiny bit before they speak on this matter. Here are some words they might want to discover the meaning of:

Pandemic

Epidemic

Hazard

Risk

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Crannoggirl,

Thank you. I have never advised panic. I have, from the start, called for staying informed of the situation. I'm delighted it hasn't gotten as bad as it could.

Melli,

As Isis pointed out 1918 was about as bad as things can get, as such, comparisions to 1918 will continue. Before you poo-poo continued concern please read up on the subject. It is not unusual for these virues to appear in waves. Usually, the first wave is compairatively mild as the new strain is still adapting itself to humans. It is later waves, after the virus has fully adapted, that cause greater difficulties.

You really should read The Great Influenza. It's a very interesting and informative book. The author John M. Barry was interviewed on NPR this morning. Link now attached.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

A question for those more knowledgeable than me.

Lets just assume that this Swine flu continues to cause mild illness compared to normal seasonal flu. Now lets assume that Swine flu comes back at the end of the year when it has adapted and is now a deadly Flu virus. Would the people that where infected with it in the first wave have some immunity to it when it comes back?

If so would it be better for lots of people to catch swine flu this time so they have better protection when it comes back or is the chance of Swine Flu becoming deadly increased with the number of people infected the first time.

Yes I know we could develop a vaccine for Swine flu 2.0 but from what I have heard in the media this means stopping the development of this years Seasonal Flu (which can also be deadly)

Also with people being give Tamiflu as a precautionary measure (people who show no symptoms but have been in contact with a confirmed or suspected case) increase the likelihood of the Flu (normal or swine) developing resistance to Tamiflu? (I know a many people will probably stop taking the drug before the course is finished because they don't develop symptoms)

What I'm basically wondering is if we are successful in stopping SwineFlu 1.0 from spreading everywhere now and over prescribing Antiviral's as precautionary measures is not going to hurt us in the long run. Obviously I don't expect anyone to have a crystal ball and know the future.

[Isis]

A question for those more knowledgeable than me.

Lets just assume that this Swine flu continues to cause mild illness compared to normal seasonal flu. Now lets assume that Swine flu comes back at the end of the year when it has adapted and is now a deadly Flu virus. Would the people that where infected with it in the first wave have some immunity to it when it comes back?

If so would it be better for lots of people to catch swine flu this time so they have better protection when it comes back or is the chance of Swine Flu becoming deadly increased with the number of people infected the first time.

Yes I know we could develop a vaccine for Swine flu 2.0 but from what I have heard in the media this means stopping the development of this years Seasonal Flu (which can also be deadly)

Also with people being give Tamiflu as a precautionary measure (people who show no symptoms but have been in contact with a confirmed or suspected case) increase the likelihood of the Flu (normal or swine) developing resistance to Tamiflu? (I know a many people will probably stop taking the drug before the course is finished because they don't develop symptoms)

What I'm basically wondering is if we are successful in stopping SwineFlu 1.0 from spreading everywhere now and over prescribing Antiviral's as precautionary measures is not going to hurt us in the long run. Obviously I don't expect anyone to have a crystal ball and know the future.

Firstly there's no guarantee it will mutate before the end of the year. Secondly, if it does we don't know in what way. The worst thing would be if someone (or some animal) gets a superinfection with swine flu (H1N1) and H5N1, i.e. gets both of those infections at the same time which will allow recombination to form a new virus, possibly with the transmissability of H1N1 and the virulence of H5N1. That would be really fucking bad. H5N1 had a mortality rate of 63% last time I worked it out (last December) and that usually kills people off via primary viral pneumonia (uncommon in H1N1). The H5N1 strains that have been isolated from people killed by it are so virulent that attempts to make vaccines by growing that virus in eggs are useless - it destroys the eggs way too quickly to harvest anything.

Would people who have already recovered from the H1N1 virus (that people are freaking out about now) have any cross-protection to a mutated strain? They could do. Again that would depend on which genes it gains loses, i.e. how much similarity there is between the two viruses. Off the top of my head I think the haemaglutinins are the most antigenic so, the more similarity between the H part the better. So if the virus was still a strain of H1N1 then yes, there could be cross protection. But if there was recombination between H5N1 and H1N1 then I doubt it.

So no, I don't really agree with the idea that people shoudl try to catch this H1N1 now. But I think that seasonal flu vaccines are going to be pretty popular come the autumn. I have to get one for work, so I know my 'supply' is safe. :) And since a H1N1 strain was included in the triple vaccine I had last October I'd hope for some cross protection against swine flu anyhow.

Yes, a large part of the reason we want to roll out the seasonal vaccines to a wider audience and increase uptake generally is to increase the manufacturing ability in order that if/when we need to switch to make a pandemic vaccine we'd actually be able to make sufficient amount for it to be worthwhile. So, no, we don't have the capacity to make epidemic and pandemic vaccines at the same time atm. We'd have to choose.

As for resistance, I last read the literature on this late last year. There's already evidence of tamiflu resistant strains of flu. Using the drug more will lead eventually to more resistance developing, yes. Not much we can do about that since we only have THREE potential antivirals licensed for use to treat flu in the UK and one of those isn't recommended for use against flu at all! And I doubt we'll see anymore for the same reason we don't see many new antibiotics.

The logic behind the prophylactic use of antivirals for contacts is to attempt to stop the spread of initial outbreaks. It's controversial amongst people who know what they're talking about for the reasons you state, resistance and using up stocks. However, people feel that if there was a chance of nipping an outbreak in the bud, so to speak, it should be taken. Those are hard decisions for someone to make. Personally I feel the choice was influenced by that fact that those contacts were kids.

And you answered your own question really when you said nobody has a crystal ball, I'm afraid. We just have to wait and see. But we (the UK) are in a better place than most countries, because we knew that if the avian influenza caused a human pandemic itwas bound to be imported here almost instantaneously. If that's any consolation. :)

[Swordfish]

I'm just angry at the way the debacle that was the swine flu, OMG, was handled. It was a media playground, with nothing helpful or informative, and created a fearful environment full of misinformation and stupidity.

Pandemics are serious shit: this just displayed how easy it is to take advantage of baseless fears, and how the fear-mongers will not reap any consequence for doing so. I sincerely believe that this overblown idiocy (which you will hear less and less about as it doesn't generate viewership) will kill people in the future.

Our media shouted "Fire!" in a crowded non-burning theater.

It also demonstrates how lacking the populace is in critical thinking skills. You can't blame the media for this shit, the people eat it up like candy. Everyone loves a catastrophe.

Blaming the media for the tastes of the majority of human beings is placing the chicken before the egg.

[Swordfish]

Relic,

Well, I'm still paying attention. I don't think panic was ever the answer. What I worry about now is whether there will be a second wave of the outbreak that is more serious than this one as the virus becomes better adapted to humans, as in 1918. The nice thing is we may be able to produce a vaccine in the interviening months to help control the spread. That's something we couldn't do in 1918.

I'm far from an expert on diseases, but isn't that basically what all flu viruses do? isn't that the very that new vaccines have to be created all the time?

What am i missing here that would indicate that what you are describing is likely to result in a deadly outbreak?

[Isis]

I'm not clear on exactly what you're asking here. But I see that two different issues are being tangled up. First, relic's point about the different waves of a pandemic simply refers to THE SAME strain of a virus travelling around the globe in different waves (i.e. separated by time - months probably). With the 1918 pandemic the first wave was reasonably mild (and therefore largely ignored) in the UK. The second wave had a much more severe effect, with higher rates of morbidity and mortality.

Second, the reason we need new vaccines for seasonal influenza is down to genetic variation. Influenza is an RNA virus. RNA is less stable than DNA and the flu virus it can't repair itself if it happens to make an incorrect copy of itself. That 'incorrect copy' is a new strain of flu. It's called antigenic shift because the antigens (i.e the parts of the virus our immune system reacts to) drift away from the ones we last encountered and made antibodies against. This means our antibodies may not be able to recognise the new strain and it can make us sick, hence the need for new vaccines to match the new strains.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Swordfish,

I'm far from an expert on diseases, but isn't that basically what all flu viruses do? isn't that the very that new vaccines have to be created all the time?

What am i missing here that would indicate that what you are describing is likely to result in a deadly outbreak?

Yes, this is what influenza does all the time. However, we are usually a year ahead of the new strain with time to prepare a new vaccine. When a new strain crops up, as in this case, without warning it a problem because people are being infected now with no vaccine available to stop the spread. In this case we do have the advantage of new tech that has spead up the process to make a new vaccine. It used to take a year or more. Now it only take about 4 to 6 months. Either way it's a race.

[Meili]

As Isis pointed out 1918 was about as bad as things can get, as such, comparisons to 1918 will continue. Before you poo-poo continued concern please read up on the subject. It is not unusual for these virues to appear in waves. Usually, the first wave is compairatively mild as the new strain is still adapting itself to humans. It is later waves, after the virus has fully adapted, that cause greater difficulties.

You really should read The Great Influenza. It's a very interesting and informative book. The author John M. Barry was interviewed on NPR this morning. Link now attached.

Scot, this really shouldn't be compared to anything really. Yes 'those who forget the past are doomed to repeat it' .... and all, but none of the aforementioned examples had massive groups of people whose sole job is to look for and prepare for these things. They are consistently looking for ways to prevent these things and overreacting on our part and worrying about each bug that we catch is pointless and paranoid. A simple "Scientists have discovered a new flu and are working on it" headline would have sufficed.

Just like in the 70's, this entire thing from the start has been a knee jerk reaction from the medical field and the media and it did not accomplish anything of note and made a small relatively harmless problem a planet wide scare and overreaction. Like I said earlier, there was nothing we could do and going by their record, there was most likely nothing to worry about. Not to mention, a panic because a few dozen people died is absolutely ridiculous and the media should be ashamed of themselves just like the people who panicked should feel pretty stupid right about now.

After all the false alarms in my lifetime, it'll take a death toll of thousands to get me interested in any "killer, apocalypse" disease again. Not to mention there's nothing any of us can do anyways (the safety advice for this one was laughable enough)

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Meli,

Wait long enough, and you'll get your wish. Preparing for something that will eventually happen isn't foolishness. Reacting to something that may develope into something deadly isn't panic.

I will agree the Media overblew this in order to pump up ratings. But their actions in hyping the Swine Flu doesn't mean this was something to be ignored.

[IheartTesla]

Afghanistan and swine flu:

Afghanistan's only known pig has been locked in a room, away from visitors to Kabul zoo where it normally grazes beside deer and goats, because people are worried it could infect them with the virus popularly known as swine flu.

They only have one pig in the country! Hilarious.

[Isis]

Swordfish,

Yes, this is what influenza does all the time. However, we are usually a year ahead of the new strain with time to prepare a new vaccine. When a new strain crops up, as in this case, without warning it a problem because people are being infected now with no vaccine available to stop the spread. In this case we do have the advantage of new tech that has spead up the process to make a new vaccine. It used to take a year or more. Now it only take about 4 to 6 months. Either way it's a race.

We're usually about SIX months ahead because the decision about which three strains to include in the vaccines in the UK/northern hemisphere have a lot to do with which strains are circulating in the southern hemisphere in their winter/our summer.

In the UK there is no widespread vaccination of the whole population against influenza - I don't know if this is different elsewhere. Only high risk groups and those requiring it for work are vaccinated. So it isn't vaccination which is stopping the spread (i.e. preventing the population at large from getting ill). Those who ARE vaccinated will reduce the transmission since they'll be a dead end for the virus. And those who are more likely to die from influenza have hopefully been vaccinated and protected so this should lower the numbers of death from flu-like illness each winter. What people take notice of is the numbers of deaths not the numbers of cases. Plenty of (otherwise healthy) people don't go to the doctors when they have flu. It's not vaccination but past exposure to related strains that stops EVERYONE getting ill with seasonal flu.

Clearly, nobody took my advice about looking up some useful terms. Epidemics are caused by antigenic drift (see my post above where I've already explained this). Pandemics are caused by antigenic shift. This is reassortment of the genetic material leading to what is (as far as our immune systems are concerned) a brand new virus we've never seen before. NOBODY has immunity to it because it's brand new, not slightly different, but very different. This is why so many people get ill from pandemic strains - because they have no existing immunity to it whatsoever.

As far the time taken to 'make' a vaccine - with seasonal flu, all they're doing is making small antigenic changes to an existing (approved) vaccine. They aren't designing a new vaccine from scratch. Reverse vaccinology has the process of making brand new vaccines down to maybe four years now instead of about ten, but that's totally unrelated to seasonal flu vaccines.

[Xray the Enforcer]

Marry me, Isis. Oh wait, that ship has already sailed...

[IheartTesla]

I am currently reading 1491, which deals with the "culture" of the Americas so to speak prior to the arrival of Europeans en masse. One of the big controversies of course, is the number count of natives in South and North America prior to arrival of the Europeans. Rough guesstimates have to be made about what percentage of the inhabitants of the two continents were killed off by infectious diseases. Some place percentages as high as 90% or thereabouts, leading others to look at such claims with skepticism - hence the controversy.

Anyways, one of the culprits described in the book, Hernando de Sato, brought with him 300 pigs on an expedition to what is now Florida. Swine transmit a bunch of diseases, and the book quotes claims about these pigs wreaking havoc among certain communities, bringing their numbers down from 200k to about ~5000. Damn pigs, I tell ya. The sooner we get rid of them the better the world will be.