NFL Thread IV: The Hype Machine Continues

[White Walker Texas Ranger]

It was the right call. The defense was exhausted and the offense had 2 yards to win the game.

[Quijote Light]

It was the right call. The defense was exhausted and the offense had 2 yards to win the game.

Yeah, but then when you don't make the play you give Peyton Fucking Manning a short field against that exhausted defense. That was a huge gamble. I was really surprised by the decision.

[Space Bandito]

That was rough to watch.

[awesome possum]

That was an awesome game.

[Week]

Snatching defeat from the jaws of victory is not fun.

[Rockroi]

So, yes my prediction is “The Pats are gonna win unless they lose.”

Never has a prediction I have made been so prophetic. The Patriots lost this game far more than the Colts won it. They gave it away in one of the most horrendous decisions made.

This was the most devastating regular season loss in the Belichik era. The Colts did not win this game as much as the Patriots gave it away. The two turnovers at the goal line (neither resulted in points for the Colts) is one thing- to BLATANTLY hand the game over to Peyton Manning with 2 minutes left and 30 yards of field is quite another matter- possibly the most horrendous decision of the Belichik era. NOBODY is claimingh its guts right now- everyone in NE is in arms about this one. Our D outplayed their D; our QB outplayed their QB; our O-line outplayed theirs. We were the better team.

So, yes my prediction is “The Pats are gonna win unless they lose.”

As a coach, your JOB (as this board so eloquently put it a few threads back) is to put your team in the best position to win, and NOT to get wrapped up in the moment. That last drive of the Pats was my most feared Bill Belichik moment: like Bobby Lee at Gettysburg, once you start believing your own press, you lose perspective. That play was "I'm Bill Belichik, bitch!" Bad enough you use TWO Timeouts to gain EIGHT yards; bad enough you continue to run Lawrence Maroney; bad enough you lose your guts from the most potent QB in the NFL (at least who is not named Peytion Manning); bad enough you call a 4th and 2 play with ZERO times out left, but .... it was the play that gave the COLTS the best chance to win NOT the Pats.

So, yes my prediction is “The Pats are gonna win unless they lose.”

You cannot allow a loss like that. 17 points up after basically dominating a game on both sides, you go for it on your own 30 WITH NO TIMES OUT (so there is noway to stop the clock or review). Horrid decision making process. We lost this game. And we give the Colts the biggest boost in a game for the remainder of the season, fall SO FAR behind the Bengals and Denver for home field. IN OTHER WORDS, too much was riding on that play. The DOWN side of that play NOT WORKING is far WORSE than the UP SIDE if the play works. That was a bad decision and YES, I said so at the time.

And why, oh why, are we still employing Malroney? Was the fumble in the end zone enough?

So, yes my prediction is “The Pats are gonna win unless they lose.”

In 1995-1996, Barry Switzer- head coach of the Cowboys- made the amazingly stupid decision of going for it on 4th and 1 on the Cowboys own 30 and was almost ridden out of town for the monumentally dumb decision. The Cowboys ended up winning the Superbowl that season, but nobody ever forgot that that decision was too bad for words. This particular game, these particular teams, in this particular set of circumstances, THIS was the wrong call. For all the wrong reasons.

And I have to say- it was an amazing game. I would love to watch these kinds of games every week. Just would rather better decisions.

[Stego]

Ouch.

[Rockroi]

And do not get me wrong- the Colts NEVER gave up on this game. They kept going, doing all they could, hoping for a break- and then it came in the most dumbfounded way possible. But Manning kept being Manning, the running game got back on track, the D never stopped hounding. They played well enough that even if the Pats get the punt off, maybe the Colts still score, they were playing that well.

But... unlike the Giants loss in the SB, the Pats gave this one away, almost literally.

[SwordoftheMorning]

gah, I was working so I only saw the Colts at 1st and goal. wtf happened? The Pats went for it on 4th down and the Colts then drove and won the game?

Belichik had a collossal brain fart and went for it on 4th and 2 at the Pat's 29. They called a short pass that fooled no one on the Indy defense and came up short. Indy promptly marched it in for the go ahead score.

[HP Loveshaft]

Nice post Rockroi. I feel for Patriots fans. I started off hating the Patriots, but during the 16-0 season I started to appreciate just how awesomely villainous they were. To make the requisite poor ASOIAF analogy, it's like cheering for Littlefinger. It's too bad the Belichick mystique is going to take a big hit from this.

Plus only the Pats would have something like this happen:

Take that cameraman!

And why, oh why, are we still employing Malroney? Was the fumble in the end zone enough?

I think Brian Mulroney might be an improvement at this point. I figured they ran him a lot out of spite...I think the story of that draft was that Dungy really wanted Maroney, so the Patriots drafted him and the Colts ended up with Addai. Spite seems like one of Belichick's primary motivations, which is why I like the guy.

[Slyfinger]

Rock,

It's not your fault. It's not your fault.

It's not your fault.

It's not your fault.

It's not your fault.

Fuck em.

[Rockroi]

Rock,

It's not your fault. It's not your fault.

It's not your fault.

It's not your fault.

It's not your fault.

Fuck em.

Oh if only I could make things right by crying in Robin Williams' hairy, man-ape arms...

[Chris G]

While there will be the inevitable complaining about some of the officiating, I think that Belichick has to take the blame. He basically watched his defense give up 2 TDs in the 4th qtr. He had to know they were gassed, he gambled and lost. Faulk doesn't bobble the catch and they win. I think the % were in his favor. I was surprised he didn't hand it off to Faulk, the Colts had no answer for him.

Overall, the Pats played great for 2 qtrs, and good for 1. In the 4th, I think Indy started to finally figure out the coverages. Manning had 2 horrible ints, 2 of the worst balls I think I have seen him throw in a long time. But, as Bill Simmons said, he is clutch. When shit needs to get done, he gets it done.

[Rockroi]

While there will be the inevitable complaining about some of the officiating, I think that Belichick has to take the blame. He basically watched his defense give up 2 TDs in the 4th qtr. He had to know they were gassed, he gambled and lost. Faulk doesn't bobble the catch and they win. I think the % were in his favor. I was surprised he didn't hand it off to Faulk, the Colts had no answer for him.

Overall, the Pats played great for 2 qtrs, and good for 1. In the 4th, I think Indy started to finally figure out the coverages. Manning had 2 horrible ints, 2 of the worst balls I think I have seen him throw in a long time. But, as Bill Simmons said, he is clutch. When shit needs to get done, he gets it done.

Not sure I agree with this- the Pats played great for 4 quarters. They put up an ass-load of points against a good scoring D (and all the issues we have discussed with that metric). There were two major problems with the game- the Pats left between 6 and 14 points on the field (the 2 drives ending in Pats turnovers) and the worst call made by a Boston Sport Coach since Grady Little kept Pedro in. The issue is that the Colts scored 0 points off the turnovers and then won the game off the bad call. The Colts DID score 14 points in the fourth quarter - but that DOES NOT mean its a 1-for-1 comparison on what to do on 4th and 2 at your own 30. Hanson was averaging 44 yards a punt, with a long of 55. Say he gets off a 45 yard punt at the 30, that puts the colts at their own 25. NOW- what would you rather: 2 minutes and the Colts with one timeout and 75 yards, or 2 minutes one time out and 30 yards?

Yes, that's not a trick question. Yes, I understand, the D is "gassed", but the percentages are still with you. Manning and the Colts go 75 yards or 25? The DOWN side of the call is far, far worse than the UP-side is good! If The Colts drive 75 yards on you, well Hell's-Bells that's the way it ends. I MORE confident that the Pats can win a game that way THAN I am on completing a 4-and-2 on a D that is sniffing you out. Too much can go wrong on a play that has so much riding on it. I am NOT saying this as a Monday Morning QB- I was yelling at the TV as it was happening. As the play was going on, I was stunned. Stunned!

AND this- if your argument is "Well, if they complete that play, they win!" THEN WHY THE FUCK ARE YOU RUNNING THE SAME PLAY TWICE IN A ROW TO THE SAME SPOT??? On third down, you have to do something more than throw those passes. Brady completed the pass, I grant you, but ... its too close and too much for so so so little.

AND there is the little matter of spending 2 time-outs to get 8 whole yards. What's the Defense-adjusted Value Over Average for that? I'm guessing its horrendous.

[Chris G]

I agree that the call was not the best. I was amazed they went for it. I was also amazed that the Colts D stopped it. My first reaction was "Shit, game over." Until I saw the spot and the replay did I realize that Faulk bobbled the catch. The Pats were lucky that Powers didn't pick 6 the previous pass.

I'm not saying that the Colts deserved to win. They really played like shit for 2 qtrs. Only after halftime did the make some adjustments. Having a safety and then a linebacker as the primary coverage on Moss=bad. Look on the brightside, you did stop Freeney's consecutive game sack streak(unless he got credit for a 1/2 sack I missed). We'll see each other in the playoffs(unless the Chargers get in). You know the Colts will get the Chargers.

[Mexal]

I think I would have been really upset if I was a Pat's defensive player. Your coach basically showed no confidence that you could stop a Manning 2 minute drill from 75 yards away though from what I understand, it was warrented. Still, you have to play the percentages. I think I'll have to watch the game tonight as it was too late for me to watch it last night. I'm curious how it all unfolded.

On a separate note, the Bengals played extremely well against the Steelers yesterday. Palmer managed the game and that's about it. He missed Chad open a few times (threw high, wide, just didnt' see him) and missed Caldwell open in the end zone. But he didn't turn the ball over and that's exactly what was needed. The defense, on the other hand, looked brilliant. Big Ben was in the pocket most of the day and they were getting pressure on him with 4 and 5 man rushes which allowed the secondary to blanket the receivers. They're really coming into their own and even without Odom, they look fantastic. I'm a bit worried that Zimmer won't return next year as his contract is up after this year and he'll probably get an opportunity to be a head coach. Either way, we have three games coming up that we need to win in order to put us in a good spot for a potential first round bye. I just hope we don't play down to our competition like we did against Cleveland back in week 4.

But just to give you an idea how good this Bengals defense is playing, since their loss to Houston, Chicago had 279 total yards, Baltimore had 215 total yards (35 on the last dump off play of the game) and the Steelers had 226 total yards. They are also 2nd in rushing defense and 2nd in scoring defense. It's pretty impressive.

[BLU-RAY]

I'm a bit worried that Zimmer won't return next year as his contract is up after this year and he'll probably get an opportunity to be a head coach. Either way, we have three games coming up that we need to win in order to put us in a good spot for a potential first round bye. I just hope we don't play down to our competition like we did against Cleveland back in week 4.

You might be OK on this front, there's a ridiculous crop of folks out there not currently coaching (Gruden, Cowher, Dungy, Holmgren, Shanahan), and at least one successor-already-named (whatshisname in Dallas)... I think it's gonna be tough to break into the coaching market. Not to mention people like Billick and Fassel are out there. And Schottenheimer, what's he doing nowadays?

[Stego]

I think I would have been really upset if I was a Pat's defensive player. Your coach basically showed no confidence that you could stop a Manning 2 minute drill from 75 yards away

That's just foolish. He played numbers. It was outside normal thinking, but it was still a high percentage play. The interception in the end zone followed by the fumble in the end zone followed by the change in play calling in the 4th quarter is what lost the game, not the 4th down attempt.

[Mexal]

That's just foolish. He played numbers. It was outside normal thinking, but it was still a high percentage play. The interception in the end zone followed by the fumble in the end zone followed by the change in play calling in the 4th quarter is what lost the game, not the 4th down attempt.

I didn't see the game so I don't know. But if all those things happened, then yes, the Patriots had tons of other opportunities to win the game. And even if they did punt it, they still might have lost as Manning is at his best in those situations.

Even still, Belichick chose to go for the win instead of relying on his defense to stop Manning. If he had confidence in his defense, he would have punted. He didn't so he went for it. I don't see how that's foolish.

Like all decisions in tough times, if they succeed, they're genius calls, if they fail, they're bad calls. This one just happened to fail.

[awesome possum]

Overall, the Pats played great for 2 qtrs, and good for 1. In the 4th, I think Indy started to finally figure out the coverages. Manning had 2 horrible ints, 2 of the worst balls I think I have seen him throw in a long time.

I think that is where New England may have lost it. They clearly had Manning befuddled and on edge. He was actually playing like he was human for the first time in quite a long time. I don't know if the Pats got happy with that and decided to relax their coverage or what, but just as quickly as he started losing it Manning got it right back and completed the scoring drives. They Pats offense failing to put that final nail in the coffin sure did not help either.