Former Lord of Winterfell Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 FLoW, :agree: Heh, I never thought I'd see the day where I completely agree with an entire post of yours, expecially with regards to the Middle East, but, well, here it is.Hey, I'm the proverbial conservative nut who occasionally finds that squirrel....Or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Former Lord of Winterfell Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I have the feeling Obama's weak statements are more of a message towards the other U.S. backed dictators in the region: "don't worry, we won't suddenly stab you in the back". Indeed, the situation in Egypt right now is a perfect example of why it's such a bad idea to support a dictator in the first place.I think that's a good point. Maybe they're worried that if they establish a precedent of tossing aside friendly non-democratic rulers whenever there are demonstrations, what happens if the next time it's in Saudi Arabia, and the demonstrators are more clearly dominated by radicals?Eh, being President is a tough job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tormund Ukrainesbane Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 If you saw these kind of demonstration in Riyadh, I think you could make a lot of money selling tickets to watch the entirety of Washington DC, London and Jerusalem collectively shit their pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alexia Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 If you saw these kind of demonstration in Riyadh, I think you could make a lot of money selling tickets to watch the entirety of Washington DC, London and Jerusalem collectively shit their pants.Is there any chance of the demonstrations spreading to Saudi Arabia? Somehow, I doubt it but still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 If you saw these kind of demonstration in Riyadh, I think you could make a lot of money selling tickets to watch the entirety of Washington DC, London and Jerusalem collectively shit their pants.that would be something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datepalm Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Notable patterns at work this morning on "wheres next" were more or less on Morocco for Arabic speakers and Jordan for Hebrew speakers. (possibly going by a 'remaining countries not technically at war with Israel' categorization or something. I wanted to theorize about some kind of reporting biases, but was eventually convinced it was probably random. We are an extremely unproductive workplace lately.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galactus Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anyone seeing some eery paralells with Mubarak's attempt to deal with this and Tianamen Square?I'm actually getting less hopeful the longer it drags on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm actually getting less hopeful the longer it drags on.It looks like the "Pro-Mubarak" protestors are slowly pushing their way into the square right now. Military is standing down, not doing anything to separate what now appears to be two large factions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 - The Suez canal (just as important as our concern over Israel - it's recently seen economic decline, probably because of less shipping)If there is a change in government (and I fluctuate on the possibility of this a lot), presumably one of the main focuses for any new government will be trying to boost the economy. I'm not sure how big a role Suez plays in the Egyptian economy but I wouldn't have thought it could be small? Thus doing anything to restrict the flow through it would be madness right?Otherwise I'd agree with FLoW. Mubarak may survive for now but he is on the way out and there is no strong man lined up to take over. If this revolution fails, i'd seriously worry about the leaders of the next one.Holding Tahrir Square overnight seems very significant right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Reptitious Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Hey, I'm the proverbial conservative nut who occasionally finds that squirrel....Or something like that.:lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Anyone seeing some eery paralells with Mubarak's attempt to deal with this and Tianamen Square?What parallels do you see? The CPC's handling of Tiananmen Square required a lot of luxuries that Mubarak simply doesn't have. First, they had an army willing to fire on the protesters. Second, they didn't care much what anyone outside thought -- the West objected, but what of it? It's nice to have a Security Council veto. Third, they went to truly epic lengths to keep their version of the story the only one easily available in China. None of these is applicable to Mubarak which is why he's leaving in half a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Galactus Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 What parallels do you see? The CPC's handling of Tiananmen Square required a lot of luxuries that Mubarak simply doesn't have. First, they had an army willing to fire on the protesters. Second, they didn't care much what anyone outside thought -- the West objected, but what of it? It's nice to have a Security Council veto. Third, they went to truly epic lengths to keep their version of the story the only one easily available in China. None of these is applicable to Mubarak which is why he's leaving in half a year.The PRC had some serious trouble with unreliable military units at the early stages of Tianamen Square too, they eventually had to bring in loyal military units from the provinces to suppress the protesters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S John Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 I'm actually getting less hopeful the longer it drags on.Agreed 'cause how long can they continue the way they've been going? You have to think that without Mubarak stepping down or the protests taking things up a notch and becoming more violent (or the Army stepping in)... they'll run out of steam soon, right? Its already drug on much longer than I expected without reaching any type of conclusive result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddison Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 It's amazing that the protesters have been able to maintain a perimeter around such a large area, especially with all of those huge boulevards leading into the square. Some of those barricades are hundreds of feet across, even though I can tell from Google that they are placed at the narrowest access points. They basically needed all 1 million people to handle it. Obviously, if the barricades were among the narrow warrens of streets typical of the rest of Cairo, they would be much easier to defend, and it would be tough for even the army to get them out. It reminds me that the Parisians were fond of barricading the streets, and that boulevards like the Champs-Elysee were foremost tools of social order and military control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Nicholas Kristof saw similarities as early as Sunday, long before the crackdown started:Fabulous, giddy mood at Tahrir. Love the campfires. But 1 troubling thought: Tiananmen was the same before the shooting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thelonious Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 The Tiananmen protests were focused on one location, in an enormous nation that suppressed any information about the events. I know Chinese people my age (mid 20s) who were unaware of the massacre until they came to the UK and heard about it. The situation in Egypt is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 strange double post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 These things do seem to take a while. In Tunisia the ousted President kept making concessions (reshuffle cabinet one day, announce new jobs on another day, announcing he wouldn't run again on another day). Admittedly Ben Ali was more vulnerable than Mubarak. But Egypt is no China either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddison Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 This is somewhat foreboding:1:47 am Al Jazeera correspondent, reporting from just off Tahrir Square reports that dozens of Mubarak supporters have erected a barricades on either side of a road, trapping anti-government protesters. They are also gathering stones, breaking streetlights and putting on balaclavas, covering their faces, apparently in preparation for a fresh standoff with anti-government protesters. Sources tell our correspondent that the men preparing for the standoff are police officers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 This is somewhat foreboding:yeah this has been happening for a couple of hours now. It's occurring near the museum on the northern tip of Tahrir Sq. Anti gov protesters have erected a barricade to keep the pro Mubarak guys out. There's a decent map of the situation here (scroll down slightly). They sort of stalemated one another and are exchanging a near constant barrage of rocks and fire bombs.Al Jazeera had a camera watching the situation right at the barricade but it seems to be down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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