[ADwD Spoilers] Adventures of the Golden Company

[Howling North]

Sooo, putting aside the current debate on whether or not Young Griff is who he is said to be, what are your thoughts on the Golden Companies Invasion so far, the make up of their army (elephants!), the territories they've captured, how do you think it will play out, and what are their chances overall in the bigger strategic picture?

[jurble]

They don't have a chance unless Dorne declares for them. Even then, they can't survive unless Tyrell and Tarly tarry in KL. Their best hope is for Littlefinger to declare for them, and bring the RL and the Vale.

[Basileus777]

Aegon himself is certainly doomed. Besides the fact that he's probably a fake, Varys' little speech about how he's been raised to be the perfect King sounds like a setup for how he will fail.

Though Mace Tyrell seems to be dumber than Cersei, so I'm sure he'll royally screw things up for King Tommen.

[The Pale Griffin]

Mace says he will wait and see how Margaery's trial goes. Then we shall see if Tyrell, who's favourite son is severely wounded is the same man if his daughter faces the axe. That precludes Tyrell from interfering with the Golden Company for now.

Also, the Tyrells are already fighting a two front war with Garlan and Willas having to fight the ironborn in the Reach. Should Dorne get involved, the Reach will be stretched thin.

With Kevan out of the picture, the only able Lannister commander left is Daven.

Unless there's a complete debacle at Storm's End by Jon and Aegon, I see for the time being, the Golden Company doing some damage. Will they succeed in the end? I don't know. Failure to succeed in one's goals seems to be a theme throughout these books.

[olennaredyne]

Sooo, putting aside the current debate on whether or not Young Griff is who he is said to be, what are your thoughts on the Golden Companies Invasion so far, the make up of their army (elephants!), the territories they've captured, how do you think it will play out, and what are their chances overall in the bigger strategic picture?

Varys seems to approve of their invasion, and he's no fool. This is a pretty opportune time to strike - like he said, the land has been laid to waste, all the houses are greatly weakened and their resources depleted, and if Varys succeeds in turning the Tyrells and Lannisters against each other, then the Golden Company may face little opposition. Oh, and Stannis = zero threat.

Littlefinger definitely won't declare for Tommen, that's certain. So even if the Golden Company don't get the support of the Vale, they won't need to worry about them either.

[jurble]

With Kevan out of the picture, the only able Lannister commander left is Daven.

Cersei put another cousin, Damion in charge of Casterly Rock, iirc. Maybe he's some super-competent dude we've just never met!

[Basileus777]

The Tyrells still have 70,000 swords. Ironborn raids (especially with their best ships gone with Victarion) aren't going to change that much. The Golden Company has 10k men, even with support from Dorne they'd still be outnumbered.

[Howling North]

Aegon himself is certainly doomed. Besides the fact that he's probably a fake, Varys' little speech about how he's been raised to be the perfect King sounds like a setup for how he will fail.

Though Mace Tyrell seems to be as dumber than Cersei, so I'm sure he'll royally screw things up for King Tommen.

I said we were putting that aside in this thread, take that up in Young Griff again if you feel like it <_< Even if he does fail it doesn't necessarily mean the Golden Company is going to simply vanish, they'll still play a big role I imagine.

The Tyrells still have 70,000 swords. Ironborn raids (especially with their best ships gone with Victarion) aren't going to change that much. The Golden Company has 10k men, even with support from Dorne they'd still be outnumbered.

Likely by that time the Golden Company themselves will have gathered supporters from the Stormlands, through alliance or subjugation, and as we've heard not everyone in the Reach may support the Tyrells on the matter.

At the very least, between both Dorne and the Stormlands defensible terrain I imagine the Golden Company can fight to a stalemate if need be. Their 10,000 men are also amongst the best in the world, veterans of countless battles and skirmishes, well organized and well armed with a balanced military composition. The Tyrells will depend on a large number of levies for the bulk of their army, not much skill between them. And then there's the elephants...

[Lord Varys]

The Golden Company is capable. If they get the Stormlands and Dorne, parts of the Reach will join them as well. That has been already foreshadowed by Connington. There have to be some strong Targaryen loyalists in the Reach or else Olenna and Mace would not have stuck with Aerys until the very end.

And Tarly or no, Mace and Tommen are doomed. The High Septon will not suffer Mace declaring Margaery innocent by royal decree - and that's what he is going to do now, he is not waiting for the trial. It was only Kevan who stood between Mace and that decision. And now he is gone.

So the High Septon might soon favor Aegon over Tommen, after all, if he was genuine, he would have a much better claim than Tommen.

[Howling North]

Mace will run King's Landing with blood if it happens though, I imagine the High Septon knows that what with the Tyrell army all around them. I think its understood between all parties, besides Cersei, that Margarey will be declared innocent, a compromise can be reached if Mace argues the point with the High Sparrow. And Cersei may just as likely block Mace from getting a pardon anyway since I imagine she'll become regent again once Ser Robert takes care of business. She'll be heavily undermined for sure, but she'll still have the rest of House Lannister with her and that will still make her a force in the courts.

[Aelinor Keath]

The Golden Company is capable. If they get the Stormlands and Dorne, parts of the Reach will join them as well. That has been already foreshadowed by Connington. There have to be some strong Targaryen loyalists in the Reach or else Olenna and Mace would not have stuck with Aerys until the very end.

And Tarly or no, Mace and Tommen are doomed. The High Septon will not suffer Mace declaring Margaery innocent by royal decree - and that's what he is going to do now, he is not waiting for the trial. It was only Kevan who stood between Mace and that decision. And now he is gone.

So the High Septon might soon favor Aegon over Tommen, after all, if he was genuine, he would have a much better claim than Tommen.

It wouldn't suprise me if Mace ended up in a cell next to his daughter, considering what a zealot the High Septon is.

Honestly it really doesn't matter in the end if Aegon is real or fake. The question is are people willing to accept him as Aegon. Joffery and Tommen are fake Baratheons and people accepted them as king.

[voodooqueen126]

It wouldn't suprise me if Mace ended up in a cell next to his daughter, considering what a zealot the High Septon is.

Honestly it really doesn't matter in the end if Aegon is real or fake. The question is are people willing to accept him as Aegon. Joffery and Tommen are fake Baratheons and people accepted them as king.

Didn't Henry VII take over England with a similarly small number of people

[Dave-o]

Something to remember is that the Golden Company is an elite force of 10,000 experienced fighters. The Tyrell force probably includes only 10,000 or so capable soldiers. The rest will likely be peasant levies. When they meet, watch the Golden Company carve through peasant levies like an axe through cheese (to borrow a GoT TV show line).

[tozka]

The Tyrells still have 70,000 swords. Ironborn raids (especially with their best ships gone with Victarion) aren't going to change that much. The Golden Company has 10k men, even with support from Dorne they'd still be outnumbered.

Numbers mean little in war. The Golden Company consist of experienced professional soldiers, battle hardened in numerous battles across the Free Cities while most of the Tyrell forces are peasants who have been conscripted and have never hold a real weapon before in their life. Of course it's true that still the number disadvantage is too big to be overcomed easily but if one of the major Houses join them (either Martell or Arryn) Griff and his company would be in pretty good position. And they'd have other supporters no doubt people who want the Targaryens back.

[Autumn Wind]

The Golden "Company" numbering 10K strong seems a stretch as far as most free companies are concerned. Vargo Hoat, Dario, and Ben Plum had less than one thousand under their command. How did their employers afford them before? Their very existence stands out too much from the rest of the region they come from. It just feels like G. Martin wanted them to have a real chance of fighting a war by themselves.

Aegon having them reminds me of Dany finding 8,000 troops of the deadliest infantry in the world whose loyalty is absolute. This time, you have the most disciplined and battle-hardened mercenaries numbering at 10,000 strong :rolleyes:

[reiver]

It wouldn't suprise me if Mace ended up in a cell next to his daughter, considering what a zealot the High Septon is.

Yep, maybe not in a cell but going on what Varys said he's not simply going to create a situation where the Tyrell's are secure to rule as they want (no matter how big an idiot Mace is). Since by killing Pycelle and Kevan leaves only Swyft as a Lannister on the council something needs to happen to divide their power or weaken it and putting them in direct conflict with the faith would do it.

Despite the High Septon's apparent zealotry i suspect (although i can't point to anything concrete) that he's being controlled by another player, maybe Varys.

[Reyne]

The Golden "Company" numbering 10K strong seems a stretch as far as most free companies are concerned. Vargo Hoat, Dario, and Ben Plum had less than one thousand under their command. How did their employers afford them before? Their very existence stands out too much from the rest of the region they come from. It just feels like G. Martin wanted them to have a real chance of fighting a war by themselves.

The Windblown and the Company of the Cat are 3,000 and 2,000. There are large companies and small free companies; the Golden Company is the famous, most prominent one that's been mentioned continuously throughout the text.

It's not like the Free Cities lack money, anyways.

[Werthead]

There's a rather famous story about ten thousand mercenaries in Greek history ;) Although the circumstances were rather exceptional, to be fair. But I wouldn't be surprised if GRRM was riffing a little off Xenphon there (though not as much as Paul Kearney did).

But what we know of the Golden Company seems feasible. Bittersteel led as many surviving royalist troops as possible off the Field of Fire, and we can assume most of them formed the original founding core of the Golden Company. They automatically became the place for anyone exiled from Westeros or forced to flee to gravitate to, and their reputation and successes allowed them to replace losses with local recruits where necessary. Ten thousand is perhaps a little high, but then GRRM's military numbers and the distances involved in campaigning are pretty huge by medieval standards anyway.

The Golden Company's chances for success depend on how they are deployed. If they are going to be bogged down at Storm's End for months, they're going to end up being useless, hence why Storm's End must fall quickly. Once they've done that, it is unclear what their next move would be. If Dorne joins them, they have a formidable army (40,000+) which can be deployed against King's Landing itself if necessary. What happens with the ironborn is also important. I wouldn't put it past Euron to make a direct assault on Highgarden itself. If he does that, Mace will have no choice but to bring all his might to bear against the ironborn and leave KL to its own devices for now (shades of Robb having to return to the North and leave the Riverlands to its own devices after Winterfell is sacked). That gives the Golden Company a chance to take KL. Even if the Lannister army moves south to meet them, their effectiveness after two years campaigning in the Riverlands and probably facing supply problems (and feeding the ordinary populace in the Riverlands and Crownlands is soon going to be difficult, nevermind the tens of thousands of troops still under arms) will probably not be that great.

And of course, what happens with the Reach vs the ironborn also depends on the success of the Redwyne fleet. If Euron can neutralise it, either by defeating it in open battle (if the seas are being wracked by storms from the Narrow Sea to Slaver's Bay, the Redwyne fleet in the Summer Sea may also have been effected and its numbers may not be that great anymore) or using hostages (the ironborn had captured and sacked large parts of the Arbor as of the end of AFFC), then he can sail against Highgarden directly with ease. So it's all interconnected.

[Corvinus85]

Right now I don't want to make any predictions about the GC will do and whether Aegon will get the Iron Throne or not.

I just want to say that I have been impressed by the Golden Company. Unlike the armies of Westeros, it is a professional fighting force, and 10,000 makes it more an army than just a company.

I think that at their full strength, elephants and all, they could easily stand against a Westerosi army 3 times their number. Of course, they also need good leadership. The current commander (forgot his name) seems weak, but they also have Jon Connington.

[Davos' Middle Finger]

The Tyrell armies may outnumber the Golden Company by a lot, but the main strength of the Tyrells are their mounted knights, since the Reach is where the traditions of knighthood are strongest in Westeros. And it just so happens that the Golden Company has exactly the weapons needed to counter a force composed mainly of knights.

1. Longbows: In " The Griffin Reborn," Connington says that part of the Golden Company are elite longbowmen, including some with the legendary Summer Island bows. At the Battle of Agincourt, the Englishmen were outnumbered 6 to 1 by the French, but since the English had longbows, they were able to wipe out the French knights.

2. War elephants: Should the Golden Company ships carrying the war elephants land, they will be a great asset in battle against the Tyrell knights, as horses unaccustomed to the smell of elephants panic.