Are there any Blackfyre heirs left?

[Wouter]

As for Varys and Serra being slaves, that's not surprising. We're shown with Tyrion and Jorah just how incredibly easy it is for people to end up slaves in Essos. Look at Volantis where 5 of 6 people is said to be a slave. After Maelys lost their power was broken so his descendants fleeing and ending up enslaved does not seem unusual - Essos is a harsh place.

The Titan's bastard had also signaled his intentions to Dany to sell her to a Lyseni whorehouse, after he had defeated her army (under the gates of Yunkai) and taken her captive. So even fullblood Targaryens could end up in such a position, if they don't look out.

[History of Westeros]

Aegon and Serra almost certainly, although technically he's Aegon Mopatis and Serra might not have had a Blackfyre last name - the Blackfyre male line ended and it might have ended prior to her generation. Serra might be Maelys' daughter, but she could also be Maelys' granddaughter maternally (or she could be descended from a female relative of Maelys). But I believe it's almost a lock they are of Blackfyre descent and Aegon is the heir to the line. Blackheart signing the secret deal to back Aegon and Illyrio's comment about contracts writ in blood is probably the biggest clue, when combined with the strong hints about Illyrio and Serra being Aegon's parents - Blackheart Toyne backed Aegon because he knew Aegon was the Blackfyre heir.

That one conversation Illyrio has with Tyrion unravels pretty much the entire Illyrio and Varys conspiracy. It goes over Serra, the Blackfyre male line ending, the Golden Company and contracts writ in blood, how Illyrio and Varys rose to power together - everything. And yet there were probably almost no readers who caught on to this. I didn't even piece everything together until I came to the board, the only part I'd figured out was Varys probably playing for Team Blackfyre. But when someone mentioned in a thread I made how Serra could be a Blackfyre everything popped into place, and I also theorized Varys being Serra's brother.

It's astonishing how one single conversation probably reveals everything about one of the biggest mysteries in the series yet I bet that ouf of millions of readers there's no more than a few dozen readers who figured everything out from that conversation on their own. Perhaps not even that many. Martin did a great job making the hints very clear if you see them - but subtle enough that almost no one would figure out the whole tapestry on their own without coming online.

I think it's probable Varys is related to Serra, though I'm less confident about him being of Blackfyre descent than I am about Serra and Aegon. Him being Aegon's uncle or something would explain why Aegon means so much to him personally. He also is supposed to be from Lys originally. Probably not a coincidence that he's from the same city as Serra. And of course the shaved head, ala Egg. If he was off Targ descent he wouldn't need to hide it from Aerys' court. Also explains why he would have hated Aerys and plotted against him. Targs are the Blackfyres' mortal enemies and Varys uses them as disposable tools, nothing more.

There's no way it would have been intentional by the Blackfyre family, no chance at all, why would they not want male heirs? Though it's possible this is why the mage wanted him. I've pointed that out myself in many other threads - but I consider it a bit of a stretch, I don't know if Martin really thought about that being the mage's motive. Probably just be a coincidence, although King's Blood Testes Power is a cool notion :)

I think this was simply so that Martin could go over how bad Cersei had it for Rhaeghar. It was more about Cersei-Rhaeghar than Aurane Waters, who I think is exactly what he's said to be. Though where that fleet ends up will probably be important later on. I think maybe Aurane was a Tyrell guy who took the fleet to fight Euron but we can't guess anything with confidence. Might be a small chance Aurane made a deal with Varys.

I'm quite confident this was direct foreshadowing about Serra, who was a bedwarmer from Lys.

Except if he's Serra and Illyrio's son he pretty much has to be a Blackfyre descendant. Because that's the only gaping hole in the I+S=YG theory: profit hungry Essos merchant Illyrio would have absolutely no motive to risk the life of his son in a foreign game of thrones, give up raising him, and not even have the son know his real father - unless Serra was a Blackfyre. How could he get talked into this completely nutty baby switch scheme while the son of the beloved wife he was devoted to when that son is 4 years old? It would be utterly unrealistic that Illyrio would agree to this. But if Serra dreamed of the Iron Throne her family fought 100 years for, it all makes perfect sense. Illyrio would clearly do just about anything for his dead wife. Either Serra was of Blackfyre blood or Aegon isn't going to be Illyrio's kid (and the evidence for him being Illyrio's kid is extremely strong).

As for Varys and Serra being slaves, that's not surprising. We're shown with Tyrion and Jorah just how incredibly easy it is for people to end up slaves in Essos. Look at Volantis where 5 of 6 people is said to be a slave. After Maelys lost their power was broken so his descendants fleeing and ending up enslaved does not seem unusual - Essos is a harsh place.

Boom. I think you nailed it. Illyrio's motivation is really the clincher, as there has never really been a satisfactory explanation for his involvement in this whole thing. Varys, too.

Also it's awkward that so few ppl have much to say about this. You potentially unraveled one of the greatest mysteries of the series, yet people seem more interested by inane topics like "who will kill Daario?" (not that it isn't fun to think about such things, but it's just pure guesswork).

[Jem]

Except if he's Serra and Illyrio's son he pretty much has to be a Blackfyre descendant. Because that's the only gaping hole in the I+S=YG theory: profit hungry Essos merchant Illyrio would have absolutely no motive to risk the life of his son in a foreign game of thrones, give up raising him, and not even have the son know his real father - unless Serra was a Blackfyre. How could he get talked into this completely nutty baby switch scheme while the son of the beloved wife he was devoted to when that son is 4 years old? It would be utterly unrealistic that Illyrio would agree to this. But if Serra dreamed of the Iron Throne her family fought 100 years for, it all makes perfect sense. Illyrio would clearly do just about anything for his dead wife. Either Serra was of Blackfyre blood or Aegon isn't going to be Illyrio's kid (and the evidence for him being Illyrio's kid is extremely strong).

Sorry for cutting your post so short, but it is a long one! And the sentance I have bolded reminded me of something. Who did the clothes belong to that Tyrion wore when he stayed at Illyrio's house? They were the clothes of a little boy and they seemed to have been stored for some time. The clothes of Illyrio's little son aka Aegon, perhaps?

[tze]

If Serra and Varys were brother and sister Blackfyres, it might explain one nagging question: if Aegon was always Plan A, why on earth did Illyrio send Barristan the Bold to protect Dany instead of Aegon?

Barristan infamously slew Maelys the Monstrous on the Stepstones, ending the last Blackfyre rebellion. Maelys might have been Varys/Serra's uncle or cousin, but if he was a beloved relative, I can see Varys and Illyrio not wanting him anywhere near "their" Aegon---I can see these guys holding a grudge. Even if Aegon doesn't share any physical characteristics with Maelys, would you want the guy who killed the last Blackfyre pretender anywhere near your brand-new Blackfyre pretender?

[Ser Shrubjump]

I think Kadence nailed it too, and if things ultimately play out to confirm her theory, it's a major puzzle piece that finally establishes motives and loyalties for Varys and Illyrio.  A couple of other thoughts: 

- I've seen comments suggesting that Aegon's character was conceived of and added to the story only during Dance's writing process, and that his existence is a sort of emergency quick fix to wrangle and tie together some storylines that had overpowered George. I guess that could still be the case, but if Varys and Illyrio have been pursuing a Blackfyre agenda since the series opened it's less likely. 

- If "young Aegon" is in fact a Blackfyre and not a pure Targaryen, I wonder if he knows that, or whether Varys and Illyrio plan on telling him soon. Maybe their goal now that Danaerys is around is to reassimilate into the pureblood line. Is there any precedent for that? 

- It also seems likely that Illyrio would not have minded  if both Viserys and Daenerys had died with the Dothraki, and that only after Dany hatched the dragon eggs did she become valuable enough to include in the plans for Aegon. He even admits in dis discussion with Tyrion, which really does have some cool Golden Company details I didn't give enough attention the first time around, that he doesn't think she'll make it out alive. 

[Galen M]

- I've seen comments suggesting that Aegon's character was conceived of and added to the story only during Dance's writing process, and that his existence is a sort of emergency quick fix to wrangle and tie together some storylines that had overpowered George. I guess that could still be the case, but if Varys and Illyrio have been pursuing a Blackfyre agenda since the series opened it's less likely. 

The "mummer's dragon" concept was introduced in Clash, so it was obviously a long reaching plan.

[History of Westeros]

Sorry for cutting your post so short, but it is a long one! And the sentance I have bolded reminded me of something. Who did the clothes belong to that Tyrion wore when he stayed at Illyrio's house? They were the clothes of a little boy and they seemed to have been stored for some time. The clothes of Illyrio's little son aka Aegon, perhaps?

Nice catch. Man you really can't consider any detail a throw away in this series.

[Dragonfish]

Sorry for cutting your post so short, but it is a long one! And the sentance I have bolded reminded me of something. Who did the clothes belong to that Tyrion wore when he stayed at Illyrio's house? They were the clothes of a little boy and they seemed to have been stored for some time. The clothes of Illyrio's little son aka Aegon, perhaps?

The clothes probably belonged to Aegon, but that doesn't necessarily indicate that he's Illyrio's son. More than likely it was Illyrio who took care of Aegon during the first few years of his life, before he was given to Connington.

[kg1982]

I think Kadence nailed it too, and if things ultimately play out to confirm her theory, it's a major puzzle piece that finally establishes motives and loyalties for Varys and Illyrio.  A couple of other thoughts: 

- I've seen comments suggesting that Aegon's character was conceived of and added to the story only during Dance's writing process, and that his existence is a sort of emergency quick fix to wrangle and tie together some storylines that had overpowered George. I guess that could still be the case, but if Varys and Illyrio have been pursuing a Blackfyre agenda since the series opened it's less likely. 

- If "young Aegon" is in fact a Blackfyre and not a pure Targaryen, I wonder if he knows that, or whether Varys and Illyrio plan on telling him soon. Maybe their goal now that Danaerys is around is to reassimilate into the pureblood line. Is there any precedent for that? 

- It also seems likely that Illyrio would not have minded  if both Viserys and Daenerys had died with the Dothraki, and that only after Dany hatched the dragon eggs did she become valuable enough to include in the plans for Aegon. He even admits in dis discussion with Tyrion, which really does have some cool Golden Company details I didn't give enough attention the first time around, that he doesn't think she'll make it out alive. 

I think that Dany is important to the scheme because she is a known Targaryen. Varys isn't going in as a Blackfyre and seating young Griff, fake-Aegon, or whatever the kid's name really is on the Iron Throne in that line's name. He is going in with this convoluted story that Aegon was saved and a nameless peasant baby died in his place, which has lots of questions attached to it. I think that fakeAegon would have many legitimacy problems. Lords like Doran Martell would likely back him because it served their own interests. However, even they would probably snicker behind fakeAegon's back and wonder about his identity.

Plus, Dany does have the ultimate Targaryen weapon, the dragons, which could incinerate the entire Golden Company if she ordered them to.

However, I do think that Dany and Viserys were pawns who were used to get the Dothraki on board and use them to sow destruction in Westros. I don't think that Varys planned on Viserys being such a hothead that he got killed before the deal was sealed, Dany being such a bada**, and Littlefinger plotting to take over Westros himself.

[StarkofWinterfell]

Given how the dragon (forget which one) liked Brown Ben, I think we can assume he really does have Targ blood.

It is also mentioned that the Plumms have Valyrian /Targ blood on top of that

[Jem]

The clothes probably belonged to Aegon, but that doesn't necessarily indicate that he's Illyrio's son. More than likely it was Illyrio who took care of Aegon during the first few years of his life, before he was given to Connington.

I agree, that is possible. The idea just popped into my head after I read Kadence's post. I am not a supporter of the Aegon as Illyrio's son theory. Inconclusive evidence at best, but still a little clue that people might like to quibble over!

[rhaze]

At this point if you dont assume everyone who you thought was dead is really alive living it up somewhere than you aren't catching the predictability of this series. The cliche of death is really just a break from writing about that character, as soon as another use can be made they magically reappear. So yeah I would expect the entire Blackfyre line showing up over the next couple of books, alive and hale and ready to conquer the world.

[Spartan_MD]

Young Griff is Ilyrio and Serra's son? Where did he get those purple eyes (and established recessive gene in Martin gentics).

Serra had blue eyes and golden hair streaked with silver.[1] aDwD Tyrion II

[Prince of the North]

other possiable blackfyres darrio and brown ben plum. He said he had two drops of targ blood not sure what that means

Brown Ben is supposedly descended from Ossifer Plumm, who married a Targaryen princess. Though there are rumors that Ossifer Plumm's child was fathered after he died, leading to jokes about him having a "six-foot long penis."

I've also wondered about Brown Ben Plumm and the dragons' seeming positive reaction to him. Here's a thought: (possible spoiler concerning "The Mystery Knight" Dunk & Egg novella)

I believe it is strongly suggested in TMK that Brynden Rivers aka Bloodraven, then Hand of the King, was using sorcery to disguise himself and spy on the conspirators from the inside. His alternate identity in this case was "Ser Maynard Plumm". Did Bloodraven have some relationship with the Plumms? Could he have fathered a child on Ossifer Plumm's wife shortly after his death? The Targaryen princess that Ossifer Plumm married wasn't Shiera Seastar, Bloodraven's mistress, was it? I don't know. I don't know how the timing works out but I just thought this was an interesting detail. It could possibly explain why the dragons would react favorably to Brown Ben Plumm because he would have Targaryen blood. :dunno:

Hmm...

[Whatever]

@prince of the north, the Targaryen princess that Ossifer Plumm married was Elaena Targaryen, younger sister of Baelor the blessed and daena the defiant. She was one of the princess in the maidenvault and i think she married again after Plumm's death. She had like 7 children and died of old age.

(there is a SSM about this.. i need to find it)

[Prince of the North]

@prince of the north, the Targaryen princess that Ossifer Plumm married was Elaena Targaryen, younger sister of Baelor the blessed and daena the defiant. She was one of the princess in the maidenvault and i think she married again after Plumm's death. She had like 7 children and died of old age.

(there is a SSM about this.. i need to find it)

Thanks for the info! So that means any ol' stiff could have been the baby daddy of the child Elaena "maybe" passed off as her husband's and Brown Ben Plumm could still have some Targ blood through her (possibly explaining the dragon's reaction to him). However, I still wonder about...

...that whole Bloodraven disguised as Ser Maynard Plumm at Whitehall (iirc) thing in TMK. I mean, why did he choose to be a Plumm? Was it just coincidence or something more? Oh well, maybe we'll find out later...

[Calibandar]

I got to say I really like the Aegon as a Blackfyre theory. But it assumes a heck of lot. As much as I like it and Kadence's post, it is assumption upon assumption.

It seems fair to assume that Aegon isn't really Aegon, but rather a Westeros version of the English pretender prince Perkin Warbeck ( many parallels). He's backed by Illyrio and Varys, so somehow they have a strong stake in it. Either because they want a prince they can control, or more because of closer, family ties. If they just wanted someone to control you could say they need not have come up with a fake Aegon.

I agree that if Serra was a Blackfyre and wanted Aegon on the throne, then that does explain why Illyrio threw his lot in with Varys to get Aegon to rule, instead of just keeping Young Griff with him. But there is no evidence of Serra being a Blackfyre at all, so that makes all of this rather difficult. She did have the look, but we are told she is from Lys. Young Griff could still be her and Illyrio's son without her being a Blackfyre, and the plot still makes sense. I agree it makes better sense if she is a Blackfyre, but that could be wishful thinking. Because why all this backstory about the Blackfyres if they never become relevant to our storyline? It would also explain why in the one time draft chapter of Tyrion II in ADWD, Aegon is to be presented with a sword. In the published version this has been changed to talk of giving him "his armor". In addition there is Tyrion repeatedly questioning Illyrio about what he is getting all of this, to which Illyrio doesn't give a satisfying answer IMO. Then of course there is Tyrions remark that Young Griff "maybe is a Targaryen after all" when he loses his temper, which in context of this theory being true would mean GRRM winking to his readers.

Question:

a) Where did we learn that the male side of the Blackfyre line had become extinct?

B) Are there any hints whatsoever that Serra might have been a Blackfyre?

I think Varys being a Targaryen or Blackfyre, or Serra's brother is all a bit too much. It could be true, but I am more convinced of the rest of the theory.

[hbic cersei]

i really like the theory as well, but i'm wondering why they would bother to say YG is aegon if he is a blackfyre. as shown by robert's rebellion, you don't really need a previous claim to the throne to be on the throne. also, the blackfyre rivalry with the legitimate targs seems like it would make pretending to be a targ kind of distasteful for a new blackfyre heir.

i also noted that the blackfyre history is almost entirely not even mentioned in the books. it's only in GRRM's short stories and the art anthology that they are discussed. i had no idea who the blackfyres were until i spent some time on the wiki. i know that doesn't mean that he won't eventually go there, but it also doesn't seem to be something that the characters are currently at all concerned about.

[Dragonfish]

i really like the theory as well, but i'm wondering why they would bother to say YG is aegon if he is a blackfyre. as shown by robert's rebellion, you don't really need a previous claim to the throne to be on the throne. also, the blackfyre rivalry with the legitimate targs seems like it would make pretending to be a targ kind of distasteful for a new blackfyre heir.

You don't need a claim to the throne if you have a big army and lots of allies. But that is not something that YG and co. have. To obtain this, they need to convince people that he has a claim.

i also noted that the blackfyre history is almost entirely not even mentioned in the books. it's only in GRRM's short stories and the art anthology that they are discussed. i had no idea who the blackfyres were until i spent some time on the wiki. i know that doesn't mean that he won't eventually go there, but it also doesn't seem to be something that the characters are currently at all concerned about.

I believe it's been mentioned at least once (by Catelyn, IIRC). But yes, it's not something that's been expounded upon very much in the books. But then again, neither was Bloodraven.

[Jon AS]

a) Where did we learn that the male side of the Blackfyre line had become extinct?

Maelys the Monstrous is called the 'last of the Blackfyre pretenders' more than once, and IIRC Connington explicitly thnks about the male line being extinct when he's at the Golden Company camp.

also, the blackfyre rivalry with the legitimate targs seems like it would make pretending to be a targ kind of distasteful for a new blackfyre heir.

Not really, the Blackfyres consider themselves to be the legitimate Targaryens. What probably would be there though is a strong desire to rewrite history to make Daemon & co the wronged party in the various conflicts.