[ADWD SPOILERS] Unrevealed Prophecies

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Regarding the prevalence of incest in Valyria: "To preserve the blood royal and keep it pure, House Targaryen has often followed the Valyrian custom of wedding brother to sister." This is from the appendices in GoT. I would accept it as being an authoritative statement.

The idea of "Dragons = Targaryens" in prophecies is intriguing, but how do you wake a Targ from stone? Unless Robert's oldest bastard, Mya Stone the mule driver, is one of the Heads of the Dragon?

(edited for spelling)

[Ibbison from Ibben]

Here's something I've been pondering: Noble families in Essos don't do the whole Westerosi sigil thing, right? (I assumed the animal sigils in the west were a remnant from the practices of First Men nobility who were skinchangers, a la the Starks, just as the maesters using ravens for communication is a bastardization of the First Men using ravens directly as communicators.) Illyrio even makes fun of the Westerosi obsession with sigils to Tyrion.

So why exactly did House Targaryen have a 3-headed red dragon as its banner? Aegon the Conqueror famously rode a BLACK dragon, not a red dragon. At first I thought it was because House Targaryen always had a red dragon as its sigil and Aegon didn't want to change it, but Valyrian families don't appear to have had personal sigils

Sigils, banners, and livery in general (much of which doesn't include animals) originally were used for identification during battles. In Westeros, (like medieval Europe) this is especially important due to the enormous number of Houses and private armies. Each lord has his following, and those lords often engage in private wars. It's important to know of who is who, particularly if you don't want to get killed in someone else's fight.

Valyria was a single state, with no private wars (we think). Valyrian armed forces undoubtedly marched under a single banner. That banner might very well have included a dragon. Once Valyria fell, the Targaryens on Dragonstone would have found themselves cut off from their old roots and interacting more with Westeros. They either used Valyria's banner as their own, or made one up just to fit into the culture. This would have happened several generations before Aegon the Conqueror lived. (Targs were on D-stone for around 100 years before the Conquest, right?) We don't know which dragon the head Targ was riding back then. (Since a dragon only accepts one particular rider, there is no guarantee Balerion would be the dragon the head of the house would be "bonded to"). So I don't think Balerion's coloration influenced the banner. Aegon's father probably flew a banner with a single-headed red dragon on black. Aegon's three-headed red dragon banner is explicitly stated to have represented Aegon and his sisters, so he likely changed his father's banner especially for the Conquest.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

We know that members of House Targaryen have been obsessed with the Azor Ahai/PTWP prophecy. I think we can infer (based on people spending years pouring over prophecies) that there are more prophecies that the Targs knew that GRRM hasn't yet told us.

This would seem to be a good place to ask- How old is the PtwP prophecy? Does it pre-date Aegon V, or did it originate with the woods witch (presumed to be the Ghost of High Heart) who told Jaehaerys II that the PtwP would come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella? Or was the woods witch just making an old prophecy more precise in time?

The AA prophesy is old, of course. It is said to be in the ancient books of Asshai. But I'm not sure PtwP is. It doesn't seem to come up at all during the Blackfyre Rebellion- no one argued that Daemon should be king because he fit the PtwP prophesy better than Daeron did. The only reference that might refer to PtwP being old that I remember is when Aemon says that the mistake about the gender of AA/PtwP misled everyone for a thousand years. But Aemon seems to assume that AA and PtwP are one and the same. He mentions smoke and salt, and how Rhaegar interpreted them. IIRC, smoke and salt are only mentioned when Mel talks about AA. Were both Aemon and Rhaegar convinced that AA and PtwP were the same?

Then again, we don't even know the content of the PtwP prophesy, only its title. It may contain "unrevealed" parts that the OP is asking about.

[Yeade]

Hey, Clementine, I missed your reply to my wacky AAR/PTWP theories! I hope nobody minds me hijacking the thread again to continue the discussion. The nature of magic and prophecy in ASOIAF is tangentially relevant to the topic, right? ^_^

The Targaryens and the Night's Watch--or, more broadly, the Wall or, more specifically, the Lord Commander--would indeed be lightning rods for mystical energies following my speculations, yes.

It's been noted before that the presence and strength of magic seems to decline after the Doom of Valyria and slow death of the Targaryen dragons, possibly instigated by the Citadel, then rise again once Dany births Drogon, Rhaegal, and Viserion. This concurrence is, of course, insufficient to establish causation, especially with factors like the Others to consider, but it does suggest a potential correlation or hidden link between dragons and magic. The Targaryens or, more generally, those of Valyrian blood have a hereditary connection to the dragons that in turn tends to make them focuses of prophecy.

The NW is founded to hold the Wall and guard the realms of men against the Others--more military pragmatism than mysticism, IMO. The Wall itself, however, is one of the "hinges of the world" per Melisandre and steeped in powerful spells that date back thousands of years. The black brothers are maybe tied to the Wall through their oath and purpose; there's a bit of evidence that the Wall recognizes men of the NW in the Nightfort's creepy weirwood gate. Besides, I figure any person or organization that's bound to live and die for centuries in close proximity to such a huge concentration of magic as the Wall, not to mention the Land of Always Winter just north, will inevitably become entangled in prophetic shenanigans, lol. There may also be other places like the Wall that can kind of imbue people and objects with mystical significance. The Shadow beyond Asshai with Quaithe and the shadowbinders, for instance, or even Winterfell and Dragonstone on a lesser scale.

So, there could be tons of folks in Westeros and across the Narrow Sea onto whom prophecies, big and small, might latch. To a certain degree, I think it can be argued everyone's influenced by magic, as it's an integral part of the very foundations of the ASOIAF universe.

I don't believe the red priests are balanced opposite the Others on some magical continuum, though. They, the children of the forest, skinchangers and greenseers, plus independent practitioners like the Faceless Men, Bloodraven, Marwyn, Mirri Maz Duur, Qyburn, the Ghost of High Heart, Maggy the Frog or, hell, the street performers Dany sees in her travels strike me as simply humans who can tap the natural mystical energies of the world. How they use their power is entirely up to them. They can contribute to a magical imbalance, sure, but I feel they aren't capable of creating one, at least not of such magnitude as to knock the seasons out of whack, on account of their abilities being dependent on how much magic is available to them.

My impression's instead that the magical forces of ASOIAF are cyclical in strength, waxing and waning. Certain creatures, like the Others and dragons, can only survive given threshold levels of mystical energies but, by their presence, can increase or perhaps concentrate the power of the magic that supports them. Well, until events like the Doom of Valyria or occasional ice zombie apocalypse happen, dissipating the accumulated energies.

From this perspective, balance isn't about destroying the Others. Rather, the ideal situation is to ease the vicissitudes of the natural magical cycles so that the world never again reaches the extremes that allow the Others to wage war on life. There might even be a rationale for the supposed conspiracy of maesters to kill the Targaryen dragons in that these scientifically minded men correctly draw a connection between the unchecked proliferation of dragons and the Doom of Valyria. In fact, dragons encouraging the ambient magic levels to climb higher could ultimately lead to the return of the Others. Who, ironically, could then be defeated by dragons. This (hypothetical) system's pretty much already balanced. Just not in a way that favors humans.

AAR/PTWP is the fulcrum of the existing system. However, to stabilize the seasons and underlying magic so that humans are comfortable in the long term, the need for AAR/PTWP must be eliminated and terrible wonders such as dragons confined to much diminished roles, though not necessarily destroyed altogether. Which is quite similar to how LOTR ends, actually.

Regarding the exact circumstances of AAR/PTWP's appearance as stated in the various prophecies being helpful in identifying candidates, I'd be less skeptical of this concept if the descriptions given weren't so figurative and open to interpretation, often mistaken. There's only one element that's certain, IMO: AAR/PTWP will somehow fight the war for the dawn against the Others. To return to Star Wars, lol, it's like the Chosen One prophecy foretelling the destruction of the Sith (thanks, Obi-wan!). The Jedi believe Anakin is the Chosen One but won't know for sure until he takes down Palpidious. Pity he ruins the Jedi Order in the process, huh? :laugh:

[sedeyus]

I think it's interesting that the Others start rising not too long (in the grand scheme of things) after the Faith of the Seven begins infiltrating Winterfell. Ned Stark kept the Old Gods and not the Seven, but he married Catelyn in a sept, not a godswood, and he built a sept in Winterfell, the heart of the North. He let his children be raised in both the Faith and the Old Gods, and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see that this trend would probably have eventually resulted in the obliteration of the Old Gods worship north of the Neck. He even tells Arya that Bran---Brandon STARK---might one day become High Septon. Well, look at what's happened: Bran Stark is a greenseer of the Old Gods, the Stark children are abandoning the Faith in favor of the Old Gods, and the burning of Winterfell destroyed the sept (but not, interestingly, the godswood).

Maybe some pact existed wherein the Starks pledged to always keep the Old Gods, and the intrusion of the Faith of the Seven into Winterfell disturbed some magic there and allowed the Others to wake up?

I wanted to bring this one back up as I really think there's something to this. Something I always found interesting the way the war has slowly switched from political to religious. There has to be more to the Others than creepy Ice demons. This series is too complex for GRRM to make his main villains so black and white. So I do wonder if the twist is some sort of connection between the Children of the Forest and the Others. My spec is through human sacrifice or something else nefarious, the Children of the Forest have a degree of control over the Others and use them as a tool to stop other faiths from taking root in the North.

[Carter209]

My biggest beef with the 3 messiah figures and the 3 dragon heads correlation was always the Last Hero. Both AA and the PWWP have been mentioned outside the North, the only place where the Old Gods are still held in high esteem. The Last Hero is only mentioned in the North. The fact that Bran has never left the North, the land of the First Men, leads me to believe that he is the Last Hero, using the COTF own talents(greenseeing, warging etc.) to ensure the destruction of the Others. Bran is the only one, that we know of, I believe, that has heard of the Last Hero. I don't know how Martin can spell out the fact that Bran's the LH more than that besides stamping the name on the title of a chapter.

AA/PWWP is where things get complicated. Depending on how you interpret the prophecy, 90% of the readership believe it to be Jon or Dany. Dany's birth of the dragons is seemingly shouting that she fulfills at least one of the roles. Jon's assassination is also screaming the fact that he fulfills one of the roles. This pushes me to believe that AA/PWWP are two different people more than any other evidence in the text. Why describe two characters deaths and (potential) rebirths in such a similar pattern if they are not fulfilling the prophecy in separate ways? Jon is part of the Night's Watch, which perhaps fills the role of Lightbringer, carries a dragonsteel sword, and has just been killed while the most crucial parts of the prophecy were being fulfilled in more mundane ways than Dany's rebirth was. Dany has awoken dragons from stone, Lightbringer in the most visual way possible, was reborn amidst salt and smoke as well(or born under those circumstances, whatever you believe), and is a known Princess of the Targaryen line.

What do I see happening? They both fulfill the role, are pronounced AA by members of the same faith(Mel and Moqorro), and both defeat the Others. Jon and Bran go north to kill the Great Other with Jon's Lightbringer(remnants of the Night's Watch/Longclaw) and Bran's warging powers, and Dany fights the army of wights and Others with her Lightbringer(Drogon and maybe Rhaegal{Viserion will die at the hands of Drogon, it is known]). There is too much textual evidence to dismiss out of hand that one of Jon and Dany has to fulfill the entirety of the prophecy on their own. They are both Targs born of Aerys' line. Plus, the PWWP in Valyrian can be either prince or princess(and that is coming from Aemon, who himself acknowledged that he had mistaken the translation of prince for princess. Who's to say human error can't factor in again?)

[FanTasy]

AA/PWWP is where things get complicated. Depending on how you interpret the prophecy, 90% of the readership believe it to be Jon or Dany. Dany's birth of the dragons is seemingly shouting that she fulfills at least one of the roles. Jon's assassination is also screaming the fact that he fulfills one of the roles. This pushes me to believe that AA/PWWP are two different people more than any other evidence in the text. Why describe two characters deaths and (potential) rebirths in such a similar pattern if they are not fulfilling the prophecy in separate ways?

This is a commonly held opinion, based on that Jon and Dany seem to be the two main characters in ASOIAF.

I think too much is read into the prophecies and we are told about them by not always the most trustworthy or maybe confused sources.

Besides Jon and Dany there are more characters in the books who have fulfilled the conditions of the prophecies, or at least parts of it. Euron, Stannis, Rhaego come to mind.

It makes me think about the main prophecy in Harry Potter. There were more boys born that fulfilled conditions of the prophecy. But to be fulfilled whole it required acting on it. By trying to kill Harry and make him the boy that lived Voldemort acted on it. Harry acted on the belief that he was the promised one who had to try to kill Voldemort. They both made the propecy come true. Not because it had to happen as foretold, they made it happen by their actions.

For instance: Rhaego could have fulfilled the prophecy fully, if he lived. Stannis and Euron could still fulfill the prophecy, as can Jon and Dany.

[Silmarien]

This would seem to be a good place to ask- How old is the PtwP prophecy? Does it pre-date Aegon V, or did it originate with the woods witch (presumed to be the Ghost of High Heart) who told Jaehaerys II that the PtwP would come from the line of Aerys and Rhaella? Or was the woods witch just making an old prophecy more precise in time?

The AA prophesy is old, of course. It is said to be in the ancient books of Asshai. But I'm not sure PtwP is. It doesn't seem to come up at all during the Blackfyre Rebellion- no one argued that Daemon should be king because he fit the PtwP prophesy better than Daeron did. The only reference that might refer to PtwP being old that I remember is when Aemon says that the mistake about the gender of AA/PtwP misled everyone for a thousand years. But Aemon seems to assume that AA and PtwP are one and the same. He mentions smoke and salt, and how Rhaegar interpreted them. IIRC, smoke and salt are only mentioned when Mel talks about AA. Were both Aemon and Rhaegar convinced that AA and PtwP were the same?

Then again, we don't even know the content of the PtwP prophesy, only its title. It may contain "unrevealed" parts that the OP is asking about.

I believe the PWWP (or PtwP) prophesy dates from Aegon V's time (could be wrong, but I do recall a wood's witch telling a Targ about a prophesy being fulfilled re: PWWP).

Or, at least the part identifying that the PWWP will come from Aerys and Rhaella's line. I don't think we are told how far back the actual PWWP prophesy goes.

[Silmarien]

We are all focusing on AA, the Last Hero, and the PWWP being the same person.

What if they're the three heads of the dragon, instead (AA=Dany, Last Hero=Bran, PWWP=Jon...just suggestions, mix and match, add/delete characters at will)?

[Glyn Tarvoke]

We are all focusing on AA, the Last Hero, and the PWWP being the same person.

What if they're the three heads of the dragon, instead (AA=Dany, Last Hero=Bran, PWWP=Jon...just suggestions, mix and match, add/delete characters at will)?

Very good insight. Very possible IMO.

I'm pretty sure Bran could warg a dragon. I thought the promise Bran would fly meant the times he warged crows and flew in their bodies. But it could also be warging or physically flying on a dragon. Another possibility.

Doesn't seem possible to figure out who filled which prophecy until (or if) GRMM finishes the books.

[Fire Eater]

"I found one account of the Long Night that spoke of the last hero slaying Others with a blade of dragonsteel. Supposedly

they could not stand against it." "Dragonsteel?" Jon frowned. "Valyrian steel?" That was my first thought as well."

I find this interesting as the Last Hero was possibly using a blade of Valyrian steel when the First Men used bronze instead of steel, and steel weapons hadn't been introduced to Westeros until millenia later with arrival of the Andals. Plus, in ADwD Jon says Valyrian steel was forged in dragonflame, and the Valyrian domestication of dragons and Valyria's rise didn't occur until 3000 years after the Long Night. So how could he have gotten Valyrian steel 3000 years before it was invented?

What if, and this is probably a crackpot theory, "dragonsteel" was actually "dragonsteed", the Last Hero managed to warg a dragon, and use him to fight the Others?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I find this interesting as the Last Hero was supposedly using a blade of Valyrian steel when the First Men used bronze instead of steel, and steel weapons hadn't been introduced to Westeros until millenia later with arrival of the Andals. Plus, in ADwD Jon says Valyrian steel was forged in dragonflame, and the Valyrian domestication of dragons and Valyria's rise didn't occur until 3000 years after the Long Night. So how could he have gotten Valyrian steel 3000 years before it was invented?

What if, and this is probably a crackpot theory, "dragonsteel" was actually "dragonsteed", the Last Hero managed to warg a dragon, and use him to fight the Others?

1. The timelines of some of the history (i.e. "this happened 3,000 years before this") are pretty unreliable, given that so much of the history books were written long after the fact, as Sam complains about.

2. We do not know for certain that "dragonsteel" is interchangeable with "Valyrian steel." It occurs to Jon and Sam, but that doesn't make it bulletproof.

[Ibbison from Ibben]

I find this interesting as the Last Hero was supposedly using a blade of Valyrian steel when the First Men used bronze instead of steel, and steel weapons hadn't been introduced to Westeros until millenia later with arrival of the Andals. Plus, in ADwD Jon says Valyrian steel was forged in dragonflame, and the Valyrian domestication of dragons and Valyria's rise didn't occur until 3000 years after the Long Night. So how could he have gotten Valyrian steel 3000 years before it was invented?

The legendary date for the Long Winter is very likely to be incorrect. I have a hypothesis that the Rise of Valyria and the Long Winter happened at the same time, and were connected. If the Last Hero wielded a Valyrian steel sword, that would indicate he might not be a native of Westeros. Everyone assumes the LH was a Stark (usually Brandon the Builder) but that might not be correct. Old Nan's story about the LH got strategically interrupted. It would be just like GRRM to set up the assumption that the LH was a Stark, only to throw a major curveball at us in the end.

[Black Crow]

I find this interesting as the Last Hero was supposedly using a blade of Valyrian steel when the First Men used bronze instead of steel, and steel weapons hadn't been introduced to Westeros until millenia later with arrival of the Andals. Plus, in ADwD Jon says Valyrian steel was forged in dragonflame, and the Valyrian domestication of dragons and Valyria's rise didn't occur until 3000 years after the Long Night. So how could he have gotten Valyrian steel 3000 years before it was invented?

Its a point I've made on another thread and I think there are two possible explanations. Old Nan's story of the Last Hero merely says that his sword was broken. The mention of dragonsteel comes from Sam's reading in the archives and doesn't refer to the Last Hero. So... if it goes back to the time of the First Men, it was most likely a distortion of Dragonglass rather than Dragonsteel, because we know that the former is effective against the White Walkers. Alternatively, if it was steel that would place the intervention of Azor Ahai (or whoever he really is in Westerosi legend) rather later, and make the forging of Lightbringer story a legendary version of the discovery/invention of steel, which was only brought to Westeros by the Andals.

[KingsGoldenHand]

I don't think dragonsteel and dragonglass are the same thing, I mean what's the point? An "oops" moment between Jon and Sam later? Plus all the talk of the secrets of Valyrian steel being lost in The Doom is proof to me that someone (yeah, Gendry) is gonna figure it out before it's all said and done.

[The GRRumbler]

Its a point I've made on another thread and I think there are two possible explanations. Old Nan's story of the Last Hero merely says that his sword was broken. The mention of dragonsteel comes from Sam's reading in the archives and doesn't refer to the Last Hero. So... if it goes back to the time of the First Men, it was most likely a distortion of Dragonglass rather than Dragonsteel, because we know that the former is effective against the White Walkers. Alternatively, if it was steel that would place the intervention of Azor Ahai (or whoever he really is in Westerosi legend) rather later, and make the forging of Lightbringer story a legendary version of the discovery/invention of steel, which was only brought to Westeros by the Andals.

Thats why Martin said we should not based our calculations in numbers too fimrly, because these tare not really accurate, and once you start checking the facts, the details problably won't match.

[Fire Eater]

dp

[Fire Eater]

1. The timelines of some of the history (i.e. "this happened 3,000 years before this") are pretty unreliable, given that so much of the history books were written long after the fact, as Sam complains about. 2. We do not know for certain that "dragonsteel" is interchangeable with "Valyrian steel." It occurs to Jon and Sam, but that doesn't make it bulletproof.

I never said that dragonsteel was certainly Valyrian steel, I was saying if it was. I'm just saying there's something that needs a closer look. If he was a First Man how could he have gotten steel in a land of bronze, and if he did use steel than why didn't the First Men adopt it like the Andals, when it proved sp effective? ,

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I never said that dragonsteel was certainly Valyrian steel. I'm just saying there's something that needs a closer look. If he was a First Man how could he have gotten steel in a land of bronze, and if he did use steel than why didn't the First Men adopt it like the Andals, when it proved sp effective? ,

Who the hell knows?

When you ask a question like, "So how could he have gotten Valyrian steel 3000 years before it was invented?", I'm going to answer based on the implication that you think we're actually talking about Valyrian steel. I'm sorry?

[Black Crow]

What probably complicates things here is that there is a well known tendency for legends to get married with unintended consequences so to speak.

Apple's theory that Lightbringer and the Nights Watch are one and the same has some merit. I'm not entirely sure I'm ready to sign up to it, but its not inconsistent with my own theory that the original Watch were working with the Children to secure the frontier, giving up their sons to be White Walkers and receiving dragonglass in return, until they and the Nights King were overthrown and the oath altered to bring in the sword in the darkness and no children stuff. I can see this new hard-line Watch being sorted out by Azor Ahai (or rather whoever his name or title translates as in Westerosi).

At the same time the forging of the sword Lightbringer so clearly relates to a blade of steel that I think it has to be the legendery version of how the first steel sword was made.

Although the two scenarios are quite different there's no reason at all why they can't have been fused into one.