Was the Red Wedding REALLY tactically smart?

[The Mother of The Others]

The Red Wedding was basically the Frey version of Pearl Harbor. It's a bit surprising because Walder Frey is supposedly an extremely careful man.

Well he was willing to take a chance because he was staring at certain doom if he stayed with the north. So taking a chance on the red wedding at least would give his brood a chance to keep the castle and their necks. At the time when he first signed on with Robb, he probably felt that same sense of doom hovering over him if he refused Robb with that army stationed all around him. So the guy just zigs and zags to steer clear of each new looming doom.

Walder Frey doesn't think about the future of his House. It's evident that he doesn't care about what happens when he kicks the bucket; he just wanted revenge against Robb Stark because he felt that it was a slight against him, not his house.

Walder was always a questionable ally, as Catelyn knew from the start and told Robb. And Tywin was an excellent student of human nature ("Know thy enemy"), so Tywin knew how to play Walder and take advantage of his innately wabbling loyalties. So when Robb married a Westerling and spurned the Freys, this provided the opening for Tywin. Tywin then applied a crow bar to that opening. So Robb's marriage was just the straw that broke the camel's back. More than revenge, Walder just wanted to be on the winning side. So if Robb wasn't going to be bound to the Frey's by marriage, that made it easy (and more satisfying) to say good riddance to the king in the north.

At this point I fully expect him to outlive everybody, his own family included. This would be better revenge than killing him first I think.

Yup.

[Arkash]

It was at the moment: befriending with Lannister and Tyrell: the most powerful families at that time...

Then... well, with the rise of the Martell, return of Targ and Stannis coming North, it wasnt that: getting foes of all of them... mostly Stannis, didnt do any good to the Bolton and Frey.

[cybroleach]

In pies, as frozen corpses, as bones or as ashes? How many do you think will return from the north?

Does it matter? If they all die hey that's 2 thousand more mouths they need not feed this winter. Furthermore this is a biblical proportion of foresight here, Stannis goes north, gets support and wins a deceive battle. None of which is related to the RW.

I think that Lady Stoneheart noticed this, too, and the BWB is going to do something about that. They already have a man in place, and Jaime was so good as to strip the castle of quite a few defenders for his Edmure escort.

No. Jaime sent guards out of the men Ser Daven brought from the west. Lord Emmon has 200 loyal guards which by Jaime's estimate is too large a garrison. How long can these outlaws last? They have no food and enemies all around them? What are their true numbers? I doubt they have fifty men left to assail a castle.

the Scorpion Knight

How are Lannister's forces spent? True their not strong in leadership anymore (due to unforeseeable events NOT related to the RW). Tywin had almost 20K men at the Blackwater that barely saw battle. Ser Daven had what another 4K at Riverrun now marching home unbloodied. They can field more troops than the North & Trident combined at this point, with the majority of that coming from the Freys and Boltons.

The Boltons might get extinct eventually because of Stannis an event not related or foreseeable to the RW.

Petyr controls the Vale and their unbloodied armies.

I don't even get your point about house Tyrell.

Listen Lord Walder's not reading ASOIAF knowing its a fantasy story and the bad guys will eventually get thiers if he did then and only then is it a tactically bad move.

[EdricBaratheon]

On a different POV for The Freys, their actions for the Red Wedding could have been down to an act of pressure and fear, especially after The Battle of Blackwater. I mean if I was in The Northern Host and heard of the Tyrell/Lannister alliance, I wuld probably be crapping myself at that point! And of course there is the marriage contract that had been broken by Robb!

So, it could be argued that Tywin exposed three vital emotional flaws from the Freys, and exploited them for his own ends; Anger, Fear and Mounting Pressure.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Just about Lannister and northern troops. Lannister have only Tywins old host remaining, of whom 2000 are known casualties and a whole bunch of unknown casualties. I'd be surprised if they have more than 15,000 left. 15,000, that's the number Manderley can field on himself.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Just about Lannister and northern troops. Lannister have only Tywins old host remaining, of whom 2000 are known casualties and a whole bunch of unknown casualties. I'd be surprised if they have more than 15,000 left. 15,000, that's the number Manderley can field on himself.

Yeah, I'm not sure that Robb was at such a disadvantage as people clam. He'd always been at a disadvantage numerically but he still won his battles. There's good reason to think that, after the wedding, he would've been able to take Moat Cailin from the ironborn (whom we find out in ADWD were starving and not in terribly great shape). If he'd left someone like the Blackfish to hold Riverrun (if the Tyrells couldn't wear down Stannis at Storm's End, they wouldn't wear down Brynden at Riverrun) and secured his MVPs, he could theoretically have pulled back from the Riverlands and gone back past Moat Cailin, which I doubt the Lannister or Tyrell hosts could have taken (and the Tyrell host at that point was way to the east in King's Landing).

I just think it's ironic that Frey and Bolton (especially) use the excuse that Robb was going to lose as a reason to sell him out, when in truth, it was their selling him out that really caused him to lose. He wasn't in a terribly strong position, but he could've ridden out some outside chaos (assuming that Joffrey's assassination had been planned for a while) and probably come back swinging. The Freys were just butthurt over their "honor" (used loosely) and Bolton, being a Bolton, was probably looking for any excuse to put the Starks out.

Speaking of the Boltons, given their history with the Starks and Ramsay's extracurricular, is anyone else surprised that Robb trusted Roose to the extent that he did? Catelyn consistently gets creepy vibes from him but doesn't ever say anything.

[David Selig]

It's pretty simple IMO - Lord Frey is 90 and really selfish bastard, he doesn't give a damn about long term results, he got his revenge and increased his power for now, so he's good. What will happen long term is not his problem.

Speaking of the Boltons, given their history with the Starks and Ramsay's extracurricular, is anyone else surprised that Robb trusted Roose to the extent that he did?

That history is from what was it, 800 years ago or more. It doesn't make sense to base any current decisions on it.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Speaking of the Boltons, given their history with the Starks and Ramsay's extracurricular, is anyone else surprised that Robb trusted Roose to the extent that he did? Catelyn consistently gets creepy vibes from him but doesn't ever say anything.

I think Catlyn thought just because Roose was reliable under Eddard also meant that he was reliable under robb

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

That history is from what was it, 800 years ago or more. It doesn't make sense to base any current decisions on it.

Given what happened, maybe it does.

[CJS 2207]

OP had some great points, and it appears the only thing beneficial that the Frey's got out of the Red Wedding was immediate gratification/justice for Robb's "dishonor".

While it can be argued that their treachery eliminated a dangerous rebel, and thereby a threat to the Lannister power, I feel it was Theon who got there first by taking Winterfell. Roose alluded as much to Theon... Robb's bannermen were already contemplating switching sides before the Red Wedding, and likely as a result of the news that Winterfell was sacked.

[DukeTheGold]

My impression is that Lord Frey didn't give a crap what sort of stain the Red Wedding would leave on House Frey.

Lord Frey is an old man with half a foot into the grave. He wanted to have his name and his House carved into history, famously or infamously. House Frey has always been regarded as an upstart House with no proud heritage or great history attached to it.

Lord Frey aimed to change that before he is dead. Red Wedding did exactly that.

Just about Lannister and northern troops. Lannister have only Tywins old host remaining, of whom 2000 are known casualties and a whole bunch of unknown casualties. I'd be surprised if they have more than 15,000 left. 15,000, that's the number Manderley can field on himself.

Woah woah, where did you get the numbers from?

Tywin was able to only muster 20,000 Lannister soldiers when he fought in Blackwater. That is true.

But where did you get that Manderly is capable of fielding 15,000?

My impression is that Manderly is capable of fielding around two dozen warships, couple hundreds of knights and couple thousands of foots. That's about it.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Woah woah, where did you get the numbers from?

Tywin was able to only muster 20,000 Lannister soldiers when he fought in Blackwater. That is true.

But where did you get that Manderly is capable of fielding 15,000?

My impression is that Manderly is capable of fielding around two dozen warships, couple hundreds of knights and couple thousands of foots. That's about it.

Partly from the books, partly from an old SSM.

There was a forum post about the troops prior to the War of the Five Kings, based on a SSM. It estimated the Westerlands at 50,000 to 60,000 and the North at about 50,000 to 55,000.

Jaime hat 15,000, Tywin had 20,000, Stefford had 20,000. Makes 55,000, straight between 50,000 and 60,000. Jaimes host got completely annihilated deep inside enemy country and for all purposes ceased to exist. The fleeing soldiers would either get a little payback from the Riverlands smallfolk or desert, but either way they are gone. Steffords host got annihilated to, but in Lannister country the survivors may be able to regroup around Daven. But still, it ceased to exist as military asset during Robbs campaign. There can't be more than the 4000 of Davens host at Riverrun remain, likely less.

Hoat and Lorch had 300 men each and either deserted or got killed in Harrenhal. Loras Tyrell lost 1000 men at Dragonstone. Since his force consisted off Redwyne ships and Lannister land soldiers, most of them have to be Lannister men. That's at least 33,000 of initalliy 55,000 men lost, not counting the Red Fork, Stonemill, the Batlle of Blackwater Bay, two years of small war, Ashemark and the Crag.

Manderley can field about 50 war galleys, he has hidden half of them up the White Knife. A war galley with 100 oars is considered small, so these 50 war galleys need between 5,000 and 10,000 men. He has a hundred knights riding with him as a honour guard towards Winterfell, a dozen petty Lords are sworn to him and a hundred landed knights. Counting household knights, relatives, knights sworn to the petty Lords there may be up to 500 knights around White Harbour. The Golden Company has a ratio of one knight in twenty soldiers. That means up to 10,000 soldiers.

[Wouter]

No. Jaime sent guards out of the men Ser Daven brought from the west. Lord Emmon has 200 loyal guards which by Jaime's estimate is too large a garrison. How long can these outlaws last? They have no food and enemies all around them? What are their true numbers? I doubt they have fifty men left to assail a castle.

AFFC has been building up towards the BWB raiding/taking Riverrun and capturing or killing Emmon and Genna. They have a man on the inside, the servants are loyal to Tully rather than the dreadful new lord, the BWB has a good motive to go for the castle because of the stores it holds and with surprise (like someone opening a gate to let them in at night) they could easily achieve what Theon did in Winterfell; the BWB is still a considerable force to be reckoned with especially if you are not prepared for them. Emmon won't be, I'm pretty sure.

Regarding the discussion about Lannister armies: Daven's present army is mostly made up of survivors of Stefford's host, combined with newly raised recruits; and a few men of Tywin's original force added (Jaime's escort from KL, the men of Gregor, maybe some others). It's not entirely clear to me where the best part of Tywin's original host is now, allthough he lost many men in his various battles since AGOT (including the failed attempt to cross the Green Fork, and the Blackwater) and some of his men have been detached (Jaime's escort and Gregor's group for sure, probably some others maybe as part of, say, Tarly's forces). A force of 2000 men (IIRC) was dispatched to Dragonstone and probably suffered heavy losses in taking that castle.

It's possible that Lannister forces have partially been "demobilised" to tend to the final harvest. Kevan noted something indicating this, IIRC.

[idreamofpikas]

This is an offshoot of the Walder Frey thread. I think it deserves a bit of consideration on its own.

Several people in that thread said that the Red Wedding, while reprehensible, was a smart tactic.

But was it? I get that hindsight is 20/20, but looking back, I can't imagine the Freys seeing where they've ended up and still signing on to that madness....

....So in light of all of this, can someone please explain to me what the Freys got out of the Red Wedding and why it was "worth it"? 'Cause I don't see it.

Walder reacted to his perceived honour being slighted and came out of it quite well all things considered. An end to the war in the Riverlands means that they can finally prepare for the upcoming Winter, stronger ties to the Crown and Riverrun and Darry as well as a marriage to Daven Lannister the warden of the West,

Currently the Freys have done fantastically out of the Red Wedding and are pretty much the de-facto Premier family of the Riverlands with an otherwise occupied Littlefinger with no heirs or manpower to properly run Harrenhall. When you compare their current standing to others who have acted out of honour; Stannis believed he was the rightful King and has subsequently lost Dragonstone, Storms End is a Kinslayer and his only sanctuary is the Wall a place were people are sent as punishment. Robb believed that the Crown didnt honour his father and family and went to war and in the process lost his home, kingdom, family and then his life. Walders hit the lottery in comparison to those two.

This whole thread is speculation of the bad things that will happen to the Freys because of their actions. Maybe GRRM is alluding the Freys are a counterpart for the English who did many despicable acts in their history and yet thrived because/in spite of them

Not everyone villain will get their comeuppance and with the Starks returning to the North(Bolton), a new person on the Iron Throne(Cersei) and the Wall braced for war(Bowen etc) maybe the Freys will be the sole 'bad' guys to survive.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Currently the Freys have done fantastically out of the Red Wedding and are pretty much the de-facto Premier family of the Riverlands with an otherwise occupied Littlefinger with no heirs or manpower to properly run Harrenhall.

How do you figure? Genna calls Riverrun a poisoned gift; regardless, she's all Lannister and it's hinted that her children aren't even Emmon's. The Blackfish escaped. Most of the castle is probably still loyal to the Tullys. The Freys have a family connection to Darry so they can claim it that way, but that still came with a Lannister marriage. A large number of their forces are up north with the Boltons, probably never to return. Many of their heirs have ended up getting hanged or eaten or otherwise murdered. Just about everyone, including people on whom they rely for military support and security, hates their guts. Jaime and his own men can barely stomach being near them and have no respect for them at all. The half-Frey child who would have eventually cleanly inherited Riverrun will now probably grow up to be a prisoner. And Baelish may be absent, but he's still Lord Paramount and it was important enough for Jaime to correct Emmon in the matter.

This whole thread is speculation of the bad things that will happen to the Freys because of their actions.

What do you mean "will happen"? I'd say that plenty of awful things have already happened to them.

[the Scorpion Knight]

Didn't the freys lost more men because and not despite the RW

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Didn't the freys lost more men because and not despite the RW

Yes. They've lost more men to hanging and other (creative, heh) forms of murder than they would have otherwise.

[1234567]

AFFC has been building up towards the BWB raiding/taking Riverrun and capturing or killing Emmon and Genna. They have a man on the inside, the servants are loyal to Tully rather than the dreadful new lord, the BWB has a good motive to go for the castle because of the stores it holds and with surprise (like someone opening a gate to let them in at night) they could easily achieve what Theon did in Winterfell; the BWB is still a considerable force to be reckoned with especially if you are not prepared for them. Emmon won't be, I'm pretty sure.

:agree: I am sure I will be proved pretty wrong about this, but I believe the taking of Riverrun by the BWB will wipe out a substantial number of Freys and Lannisters including the last of Tywin's siblings Genna. There are several big foreshadowing phrases in the last chapters of AFFC. These may come to nothing, however I tend to use the Starwars theory here: after the Death Star was destroyed, did they scrap the idea and try something different, no. Why? Because they had proved it worked in blowing up a Planet. All they needed to do were some alterations.

Similarly Daven is due to get married to a Frey. He is at Riverrrun. I would assume the marriage (also look how we triumphed over the Tully party) will take place there. The Red Wedding successfully destroyed the Northern Side, so why wouldn't UnCat employ exactly the same tactic. A garrison of 200 men is useless if they are drunk and all the Freys and Lannisters at the feast will have their swords hung at the walls or outside of the hall.

What also makes sense is that GRRM is great at making us not feel good about moments of revenge. Much as I dislike Cersei, I found her treatment from the Septas vile and her walk of shame horrific. There was no yes! Revenge moment. Only revulsion. I think GRRM could do a similar thing slaughtering the Freys and Lannisters in Riverrun. We should be overjoyed that they are getting their comeuppance but are actually horrified by what happens.

[idreamofpikas]

What do you mean "will happen"? I'd say that plenty of awful things have already happened to them.

Didn't the freys lost more men because and not despite the RW

We actually dont have a precise number of how many Frey men died in the War of the Five kings but you are both under the presumption that no more Freys would have died had Robb lived, Being stuck on the border of the North-Riverlands had the Lannister Stark conflict continued Frey casualities would of mounted no matter which side they were on and the Twins being in a key strategic position would of been vulnerable as well. Robb would never of backed down and the possible war could of lasted years. From Walders point of view it was better to end the war rather than continue to participate as a Stark or Lannister pawn.

re: the deaths from UnCat how is anyone able to predict the dead risong to take revenge.

[idreamofpikas]

How do you figure? Genna calls Riverrun a poisoned gift; regardless, she's all Lannister and it's hinted that her children aren't even Emmon's.

Where is it hinted that they are not Emmons? Isnt it described in the books how Cleos looks like his father and that Jaime see's more Frey in him than Lannister. Even if the other children are bastards it his children who will inherit Riverrun.