Was the Red Wedding REALLY tactically smart?

[LordBloodraven]

See regime change for change of Lord. Did Aegon the Unworthy mean that all future Targaryen Kings were known as unworthy? Walder Frey murdered Robb but his first born son the heir to the Twins died bravely fighting for Robb who's to say Edwyn Frey(Stevrons son and next heir to the Twins) or his heirs wont change the perception of the Freys. I mean the North and Westeros are about to face a huge supernatural invasion and are going ot have bigger problems than family rivalries.

Robert Baratheon wanted every single Targ to die becasue of the crimes of two of their members Ned on the other hand was happy to end the bloodshed with the death of Aerys. If a Stark is restored, and its a huge IF at this point in the series, then its likely to be one of Jon, Bran or Rickon. Jon and Bran are likely to be like Ned and punish the individual(s) rather than the whole family while Rickon we've barely seen but if he's as wild as his wolf then he might want total vengence.

The analogies you are putting aren't valid: Aegon the Unworthy wanted to fuck his mistresses and decided to legitimize his bastards on his deathbed. There's nothing slightly similar to the Red Wedding. Aegon didn't kill anybody, he was just irresponsible. Concerning the Targs there was a regime change and the two culprits died.

The Freys butchered a whole host which they invited for a feast. They killed many noblemen and men at-arms who were protected under guest right. Ryswell, Umber, Manderly, Stark, Wull, Mormont, Flint, Blackwood, Piper, Tully, Vance, Smallwood, Mallister; all those houses had family members, men at-arms that were killed or imprisoned during the Red Wedding, under guest rights protection. Theses houses surround the Twins. I don't think that they will say: "we are cool Walder, let's forget the RW" to the Freys. In AFFC, there was tension between Freys and the other Riverlords. In ADWD, there was tension between Freys and the northmen. The Freys are doomed. They are the only house we know which pissed all the other houses of their region and broke all the rules of hospitality. The Twins will be picked clean

[Arland]

Germany's reputation recovered a lot quicker than 50 years over far worse atrocities than the red wedding.

You do realize that there are still people who refuse to travel to Germany, to buy German goods or listen to Wagner? Germany went trough very deep denazification campaign, accepted the shame and guilt of it's crimes, but still victims relatives remember.

Almost all Freys took part in RW, and none of them has shown a slightest regret about it (at least for now). It would be very hard for them to claim later, that it was Walder's Frey doing. It just wont cut. The north does remember, and Manderly is a living proof of that. Almost every family in north and river lands has an open account with Freys, and they will have to pay with an interest in first moment of weakness.

[EdricBaratheon]

You do realize that there are still people who refuse to travel to Germany, to buy German goods or listen to Wagner? Germany went trough very deep denazification campaign, accepted the shame and guilt of it's crimes, but still victims relatives remember.

Almost all Freys took part in RW, and none of them has shown a slightest regret about it (at least for now). It would be very hard for them to claim later, that it was Walder's Frey doing. It just wont cut. The north does remember, and Manderly is a living proof of that. Almost every family in north and river lands has an open account with Freys, and they will have to pay with an interest in first moment of weakness.

Well I think Regret for the Frey's is starting to creep up on them, since many members of there household are starting to get picked off one by one! And at this point in time, they have no reason to show signs of regret, as they are now obtaining land and lordships, they have gained places like Darry, Rivverrun. Yet of course it could be argued that the Lannisters still remain in control of such places! its a 50/50 thought on this!

I think when the time comes, The Freys will relise that they are completely on their own and then, regret will take over!

Also, members of House Frey do constantly show signs of Paranoia since the events of the Red Wedding, I figure that will contribute to their downfall, especially with Manderly and other Northern Houses on their backs!

[cybroleach]

Manderly has been rallying Hornwood, Tallhart, Stark men that escaped from the sack of Winterfell. He's been recruiting for some time and building a northern fleet. He could easily field 10000 men and he stated so to Davos in ADWD

Really quote me these proofs.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Really quote me these proofs.

Dance p. 202: "Davos counted twenty-three" (war galleys)

Dance p. 392 "there are as many more hidden up the White Knife"

Clash Davos I: war galleys of one hundred oars are considered small.

That means far more than 5000 for his fleet alone.

[Lord Martin]

I'm surprised this is a debate. I love the Starks as much as anyone, but the RW was Lord Walder's best chance at getting back into the good graces of the Lannisters. At the time he was planning on turning his back, everything was going the Lannister way: 1) Renly died, 2) the Tyrells joined the Lannisters, 3) Stannis lost on the Blackwater, 4) the Iron born took Moat Cailin, the Stony Shore and Deepwood Motte and 5) Winterfell was sacked.

So here is Lord Walder, he backed a Boy King in exchange for great marraiges and other standard faire. The boy wins many victories but nothing decisive as Tywin, Stannis and Renly loom large. Then the boy king gets cut off from the North and his capital city and hometown get destroyed and his brothers murdered. It doesn't look like a good day to be a Stark Loyalist.

Where can things go from here? The best case scenario is Robb returns to the North, reclaims Winterfell and marries his daughter. Great, now we have god knows how many more years fighting the Lannister/Tyrell alliance. And Gods forgive us if they ally with Dorne or the Iron Born. It will be the North and the Riverlands vs. everyone else. No one wants to be on the wrong side of that set up.

Then to make matters worse, Robb goes and marries someone else. So all the risk Lord Walder took and now he has no reward. Sure there is a revenge motive here, but the landscape has changed. The Lannisters are clearly in control of Westeros, so what is there to do but try to get back in their good graces.

What I'd love to know is who wrote the first letter in the Frey, Bolton, Lannister triumvirate? Did Bolton tell Frey that he wanted to be Warden of the North? Did Tywin contact Lord Walder to offer peace terms in exchange for Robb Stark's head? Did Roose Bolton offer Tywin the loyalty of the North in exchange for being appointed Warden? That information would go a long way toward telling us whether the deal was wisely thought through.

But by the time Robb took the Crag, his war was lost. A win for him would be to get back to Winterfell alive and re-take it and rebuild the north during the long winter.

[Wouter]

Well Genna's not painted as the fool Catlyn is so we'll see what happens. Theon had to kill a dosen guard not an entire garrison.

Catelyn is not only not a fool, she had nothing to do with the fall of Winterfell - it was Rodrik, the castellan, who let himself be played by the ironborn (and then by Ramsay as well, which cost him his life).

Theon only had to kill a few guards, but he also himself had much less ironborn than Lady Stoneheart has "knights" of the BwB, and no one on the inside of the castle.

Genna is not a fool, but in spite of all the talk about ruling her marriage, Emmon could give his ridiculous speech to the servants and he is also running the military side of things. Genna also would have preferred castle Darry over Riverrun, but Riverrun is what she ended up with. She wanted Edmure dead, but he is still alive. What Genna wants, Genna not always gets.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I'm surprised this is a debate. I love the Starks as much as anyone, but the RW was Lord Walder's best chance at getting back into the good graces of the Lannisters. At the time he was planning on turning his back, everything was going the Lannister way: 1) Renly died, 2) the Tyrells joined the Lannisters, 3) Stannis lost on the Blackwater, 4) the Iron born took Moat Cailin, the Stony Shore and Deepwood Motte and 5) Winterfell was sacked.

So here is Lord Walder, he backed a Boy King in exchange for great marraiges and other standard faire. The boy wins many victories but nothing decisive as Tywin, Stannis and Renly loom large. Then the boy king gets cut off from the North and his capital city and hometown get destroyed and his brothers murdered. It doesn't look like a good day to be a Stark Loyalist.

Where can things go from here? The best case scenario is Robb returns to the North, reclaims Winterfell and marries his daughter. Great, now we have god knows how many more years fighting the Lannister/Tyrell alliance. And Gods forgive us if they ally with Dorne or the Iron Born. It will be the North and the Riverlands vs. everyone else. No one wants to be on the wrong side of that set up.

Then to make matters worse, Robb goes and marries someone else. So all the risk Lord Walder took and now he has no reward. Sure there is a revenge motive here, but the landscape has changed. The Lannisters are clearly in control of Westeros, so what is there to do but try to get back in their good graces.

What I'd love to know is who wrote the first letter in the Frey, Bolton, Lannister triumvirate? Did Bolton tell Frey that he wanted to be Warden of the North? Did Tywin contact Lord Walder to offer peace terms in exchange for Robb Stark's head? Did Roose Bolton offer Tywin the loyalty of the North in exchange for being appointed Warden? That information would go a long way toward telling us whether the deal was wisely thought through.

But by the time Robb took the Crag, his war was lost. A win for him would be to get back to Winterfell alive and re-take it and rebuild the north during the long winter.

But I'm asking, in the end, what did the Freys get out of it? I'd say there's a big difference between what they expected to get and what they actually got.

[Fire Eater]

But I'm asking, in the end, what did the Freys get out of it? I'd say there's a big difference between what they expected to get and what they actually got.

I agree, especially since things in the War of the Five Kings turn out to be unpredictable, first it was the Lannisters against Stannis and Renly, then Renly dies, Stannis manages to get a force of 30,000 to attack King's Landing in what seems like certain victory, but the Tyrells join the Lannisters and defeat Stannis. The ironmen take Moat Cailin, and raise a new king. King Robb is slain at the Red Wedding along with much of his forces. It would seem the Lannisters were victorious, but Joffrey is poisoned, Tywin is slain, and the Ironmen are raiding the Reach have taken the Arbor. And now, the Golden Company has landed in the Stormlands led by Jon Connington with the supposed Prince Aegon, and if Dorne joins forces along with an increasing number of Tyrell bannermen, the Lannisters will be S.O.L. Even more so the Freys, since the Tyrells will have their hands full dealing simultaneously with Euron Greyjoy and Jon Connington along with the Lannisters, making it difficult to spare any men for the Freys. To the north of the Twins lie the Northern lords, and everywhere else around the Twins lie the river lords, both having lost men and kin at the Red Wedding. The Freys have found themselves surrounded by enemies, who are unlikely to be merciful after the Red Wedding.

[Hear Us Roar]

The frey's got much out if it. Firstly they got revenge on Rob for going back on his word and took the Stark's out of the game, second they removed the Tully's from power and took their seat. They are in a great position, if Stannis wins they will declare for him and he will forgive them as he forgave the stormlands bannermen, if Aegon or whoever wins they will declare for them too. They can just sit back. They are in a good position for now and will probably take a wait and see approach. The north may scream for blood but in the game of thrones once the pieces have been taken out of play most nobles will not care. The starks are out. Arya is far away, i don't see sansa commanding armies in the near future, Cat has a few bandits, Bran is on his vison quest and rickon is a child and won't be more than a puppet if anyone gets their hands on him

[The King in the South]

But I'm asking, in the end, what did the Freys get out of it? I'd say there's a big difference between what they expected to get and what they actually got.

They get to stay alive, first of all. Had they fought for Robb they probably would have been wiped out.

2nd of all, they gain a new lordship in Riverrun, several new marriage alliances.

They also got their revenge.

I don't Lord Walder expected him/his sons to be appointed Lord Paramount of the Riverlands or anything, Emmon is just an idiot.

[Hear Us Roar]

Emmon may be but his wife is not, as long as she runs things from behind the scenes things will be fine

[The King in the South]

Emmon may be but his wife is not, as long as she runs things from behind the scenes things will be fine

I know, I was just pointing out that Emmon was an idiot to think he was going to be a Highlord.

[the Scorpion Knight]

The frey's got much out if it. Firstly they got revenge on Rob for going back on his word and took the Stark's out of the game, second they removed the Tully's from power and took their seat. They are in a great position, if Stannis wins they will declare for him and he will forgive them as he forgave the stormlands bannermen, if Aegon or whoever wins they will declare for them too. They can just sit back. They are in a good position for now and will probably take a wait and see approach. The north may scream for blood but in the game of thrones once the pieces have been taken out of play most nobles will not care. The starks are out. Arya is far away, i don't see sansa commanding armies in the near future, Cat has a few bandits, Bran is on his vison quest and rickon is a child and won't be more than a puppet if anyone gets their hands on him

the best way a future rebel got to win the north and the rivelands: I'll declare the freys to be outlaws and godless and beyond the Law

they basicly put a target on themselves on the long sight.

It was shortsighted and stupid IMHO (ok robb was to stubborn to admit he lost, and put the wrong people into position of power)

[4rcane]

Not tactically smart imho. Only if they were able to wipe out ALL their opposition, which they didn't, which allow for revenge. All they did was trade short term gain for long term pain. The Freys did not just betrayed the Starks. They betrayed everyone in the North

[LordBloodraven]

Really quote me these proofs.

I've checked the chapter right now but I don't see the 10000 men reference even though Manderly states that he has more heavy cavalry in the north and has his "vaults full of silver" to maintain his troops. Things got mixed in my head with this thread http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/59037-why-didnt-wyman-manderly-act-sooner/ or this one http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/57708-military-roundup-after-adwd/. Sorry for the amalgam

[Winterfell is Burning]

Exactly. People seem to forget they didn't betrayed only the Starks, and not in normal circunstances that people would just pretend they didn't see latter. They made PERSONAL ENEMIES out of every lord in the North and Riverlands, and made the Frey name synonimous with treachery.

[Wightman]

In the short term they gained a lot. As time passed it became clear that they have lost a good deal more than they gained.

[Ser Lepus]

You know, the Freys could have waited to switch sides until Robb had gone back to the North to fight the ironborn and Tywin had defeated Edmure in the Riverlands; since the Freys control one of the two bottlenecks in the way to the North, I bet they could have bargained reasonable terms of surrender with Tywin (like Red Ronnet, Estermont, Manderly, Bracken, Piper and others have done) and their honor would have remained untainted.

I know they were in dire straits and trying to leave a sinking ship and all that, but honestly, I don´t think their meager gains can compensate the fact that half Westeros wants to kill them all and the other half despises them...

[cybroleach]

Dance p. 202: "Davos counted twenty-three" (war galleys)

Dance p. 392 "there are as many more hidden up the White Knife"

Clash Davos I: war galleys of one hundred oars are considered small.

That means far more than 5000 for his fleet alone.

IMO your extrapolating too much from those: Davos works for the Royal fleet some of the largest ships most powerful ships in the world saying 100 oars is small by comparison makes sence Fury was 400 for example. Yet Stannis only has 5,000-6,000 fighting men at the start of ACOK dispite having 100 large ships. While the north noteabley without a powerful fleet can have alot smaller war galleys. Furthermore, Manderly only started building these ships in ACOK so while he has the physical boats I'd imagine it's harder to find the 3,000 new recriuts to place in charge of them. In any case sailors can't be mobalised into a standing army very easily nor would we expect Manderly to.

My main reason to suspect this is Robb mobalized 20,000 men, Manderly only had 1,500 to spare at that time. GRRM has sated the north can only raise 2x what Robb had. The north has taken alot of losses since then, Boltons fought Maderly in the Hornwoods, Theon slaughtered the Young Hares of Tallhart, Deepwood Motte & Moat Callin were taken, Rodrick fought Cleftjaw at Torhen's Square, later Torhen's Square fell. While Rodrick was only able to raised 3,000 men with leaves from around Winterfell, Tallhart men, Cerwyn men & Manderly men who were bleed pretty bad in a one sided battle. Survivors of that last battle we hear of many being with Bolton and Stannis. Stannis has close to 6,000 men with him and Bolton is supposed to have comparatively more at Winterfell which IMO is probably around 8,000 with about 5,000 of that comming from the RW. So for Manderly to be able to raise nearly 10,000 men he's got pretty much every fighting man in the north not accounted for in his hidden army.

I've checked the chapter right now but I don't see the 10000 men reference even though Manderly states that he has more heavy cavalry in the north and has his "vaults full of silver" to maintain his troops. Things got mixed in my head with this thread http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/59037-why-didnt-wyman-manderly-act-sooner/ or this one http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/57708-military-roundup-after-adwd/. Sorry for the amalgam

Well him having more heavy horse than anyone else in the noth is a given Robb only marshaled a little over 4,000 horse out of the eleite noble troops, and given White Harbour is the only one with a knightly culture. Even with as few as 1,000 horse he's likely 500+ on 2nd place.