Was the Red Wedding REALLY tactically smart?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

GRRM seems to take his ships from late medieval/early rennaissance. So, the Battle of Blackwater Bay against the Battle of Lepanto:

Fury: 400 oars - La Real: 290 oars

Small Westerosi galleys: ? oars - Venetian galleys: 90 oars

Westerosi longships: ? oars - Viking longships: 16-32 oars.

And Manderley had a bunch of refugees arriving for close to two years, "every man five feet tall can find a place in his Lordships barracks". He has enough recruits.

Has GRRM stated that the North can rise twice what Robb had oder twice again? There is an old post from spring (from Ran irrc) based on a SSM where the Norths power before Game was estimated at 50,000-55,000. That fits.

Manderley had only 2,000 for Robb because he was ordered to defend the White Knife and build a fleet. He had to keep his main strength back, just like Howland Reed. So he has his main strength still intact, one of the five biggest cities in Westeros, all the new recruits out of the refugees and the silver to equip and train them.

[Ser Lepus]

GRRM seems to take his ships from late medieval/early rennaissance. So, the Battle of Blackwater Bay against the Battle of Lepanto:

Fury: 400 oars - La Real: 290 oars

Small Westerosi galleys: ? oars - Venetian galleys: 90 oars

Westerosi longships: ? oars - Viking longships: 16-32 oars.

And Manderley had a bunch of refugees arriving for close to two years, "every man five feet tall can find a place in his Lordships barracks". He has enough recruits.

Has GRRM stated that the North can rise twice what Robb had oder twice again? There is an old post from spring (from Ran irrc) based on a SSM where the Norths power before Game was estimated at 50,000-55,000. That fits.

Manderley had only 2,000 for Robb because he was ordered to defend the White Knife and build a fleet. He had to keep his main strength back, just like Howland Reed. So he has his main strength still intact, one of the five biggest cities in Westeros, all the new recruits out of the refugees and the silver to equip and train them.

The galleys and galleasses that fought in Lepanto had all from two to five men per oar, while the galleys and galleasses of ASOIAF are more like roman and greek warships, and have only one man per oar (or at least, they have several rows of oars at each side)...

The thing is, having more men per oar is less efficient (you need longer, thicker, stronger oars, which are heavier, so a percentage of the energy is lost) but, on the other hand, you can make your ships more seaworthy (with more oars, you have to adapt the entire structure of the ship so all the oars touch the water, which reduces its efficiency in other ways and makes it less secure during rough weather) and, above all, with more oars, you have to train your oarsmen better, so they don´t hinder each other...the greek and romans used free proffesional oarsmen, while the renaissence galleys had captives and prisioners as oarsmen.

[Mark Antony]

So in light of all of this, can someone please explain to me what the Freys got out of the Red Wedding and why it was "worth it"? 'Cause I don't see it.

Yeah, they got petty revenge, Definitely not worth it for them but for Tywin it was a great move.

[Daniel Dario]

I'm fairly certain that there will be more and worse repercussions for the Freys.

It is repeatedly said that the violation of guest right is an injury to all laws of gods and men. In the world of ASOIAF such an affront to the gods should usually be punished. Considering both that the North remembers and Northerners often pray to the Old Gods, I can't see past many Freys dying gruesome deaths, especially Walder Frey. I expect his death to be the most gruesome.

On the other hand it could also suit GRRM to have Walder die peacefully in his sleep, in contrast to everyone's belief. Oh, how the books would fly!

Anyway, there's no way to look at this and see the Freys coming out on top in the long term, considering that it's highly unlikely that House Lannister will not lose the game to the Targs/South/North and the Freys completely depend on their strength.

[Larry of the Lawn]

I'm fairly certain that there will be more and worse repercussions for the Freys.

It is repeatedly said that the violation of guest right is an injury to all laws of gods and men. In the world of ASOIAF such an affront to the gods should usually be punished. Considering both that the North remembers and Northerners often pray to the Old Gods, I can't see past many Freys dying gruesome deaths, especially Walder Frey. I expect his death to be the most gruesome.

On the other hand it could also suit GRRM to have Walder die peacefully in his sleep, in contrast to everyone's belief. Oh, how the books would fly!

Anyway, there's no way to look at this and see the Freys coming out on top in the long term, considering that it's highly unlikely that House Lannister will not lose the game to the Targs/South/North and the Freys completely depend on their strength.

Welcome to the board

[James Arryn]

I maintain the play was the invite Robb et al to discuss the turn of events, meanwhile broker a deal with Tywin so that he arrives shortly after the Northerners, while you menahwhile close up shop and pull up a chair to watch them be massacred in a manner that would not only not invite censure, but would probably be see as apt by most of the rest of Westeros.

Paid in kind, exactly, in keeping with how you had been wronged.

[MCBC]

For the Lannisters it was. This is all provided it never becomes common knowledge that they helped put the scheme together. For the Freys you get more land but in other ways you have less power. Every time a Frey steps outside a castle, he/she is at risk. They have so many people gunning for them & because they broke the guest right, those people will feel they have no need to follow the rules to achieve their vengeance. Which makes the guest right so huge & why GRRM has stressed its importance. Once the rules get thrown out the window, look out...

Walder Frey is such a gigantic hypocrite. The guy breaks marriage contracts all the time by making sure his wives don`t live past a certain age. He has no business criticizing anyone.

[the Scorpion Knight]

For the Lannisters it was. This is all provided it never becomes common knowledge that they helped put the scheme together. For the Freys you get more land but in other ways you have less power. Every time a Frey steps outside a castle, he/she is at risk. They have so many people gunning for them & because they broke the guest right, those people will feel they have no need to follow the rules to achieve their vengeance. Which makes the guest right so huge & why GRRM has stressed its importance. Once the rules get thrown out the window, look out...

the lannisters would have kept their hands clean if there wasn't the matter with the westerlings and the many frey marriages they made

[Lion of Judah]

Tactically it was pulled off pretty well. Was it a smart idea? No. If the idea is the secure the future of your house by taking your over lords place, then that makes sense. Walder Frey however did the dirty work and got the bad reputation to turn Winterfell over to the Boltons.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

What I think is ironic, is that Walder Frey was so pissed off because many of his marriage proposals were refused, and now this one was broken. But after the RW, except those few Lannister marriages as a reward, nobody is ever willingly going to marry a Frey again..

If the BWB is indeed going to do a RW2, I hope they kill everyone, but keep a few Freys alive, so the Freys will look guilty. I also hope they will get into the wedding the same way the Hound was planning, by delivering food (Frey pie, from lost Freys), that would please me very much.

[Larry of the Lawn]

It's Walder Frey's shot at population control: having too many heirs is just as dangerous as having too few. From the ASOS epilogue Merrett Frey rambles on in his alcoholic, concussed, inner monologue about how when Walder dies there is going to be a fustercluck of Frey's fighting to remain connected to the family without getting the boot. Walder lost his heir Stevron, whom he'd been grooming to take over for sixty years; after that he probably realized that he could get revenge AND solve his overabundance of heirs problem in one fell swoop.

So he gets to be immortalized in history for violating guestright, and at the same time insures the complete and utter destruction of most of his house, save those that already have strategic marriage alliances.

Okay I'm reaching here; the Frey's got nothing out of it but a bad rep and a lot of angry, vengeful enemies.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

It's Walder Frey's shot at population control: having too many heirs is just as dangerous as having too few. From the ASOS epilogue Merrett Frey rambles on in his alcoholic, concussed, inner monologue about how when Walder dies there is going to be a fustercluck of Frey's fighting to remain connected to the family without getting the boot. Walder lost his heir Stevron, whom he'd been grooming to take over for sixty years; after that he probably realized that he could get revenge AND solve his overabundance of heirs problem in one fell swoop.

So he gets to be immortalized in history for violating guestright, and at the same time insures the complete and utter destruction of most of his house, save those that already have strategic marriage alliances.

Okay I'm reaching here; the Frey's got nothing out of it but a bad rep and a lot of angry, vengeful enemies.

It seems to me that Walder Frey is pretty proud of being able to raise an army out of his breeches. Merrett also says that Walder wanted to keep the whole family safe, and together.

[Scipio Africanus]

the lannisters would have kept their hands clean if there wasn't the matter with the westerlings and the many frey marriages they made

Everyone who looks under the hood knows it was Tywin, because the crown disinherited the Tullys and awarded Riverrun to (surprise) the Freys.

Always follow the money to find out who's behind stuff.

[Commander Jon Snow]

It wasn't smart at all by the Freys. That entire family is pretty much screwed now. I'm a huge Stark fan and have to say the RW was a brilliant tactic, not by the Freys but by Tywin Lannister. Tywin pretty much killed legions of his enemies with one stroke and was able to move the blame on to the Freys (who were so anxious for revenge, they didn't realize they got played).

[Daemon Dagoghlor]

Walder Frey wanted the Red Wedding to be his house's "Rains of Castamere." He thought everyone would fear and respect him for what he did, instead they just hate him and now everyone in Westeros is gunning for the Freys.

[the Scorpion Knight]

It wasn't smart at all by the Freys. That entire family is pretty much screwed now. I'm a huge Stark fan and have to say the RW was a brilliant tactic, not by the Freys but by Tywin Lannister. Tywin pretty much killed legions of his enemies with one stroke and was able to move the blame on to the Freys (who were so anxious for revenge, they didn't realize they got played).

the smartest thing tywin could have was saying yes to robbs terms and add the arya -tommen as a cherry on the cake

[Myrcella]

I thought it was brilliantly orchestrated, but I agree Frey was short-sighted in the consequences of this. No one would want House Frey as a trusted ally for centuries afterwards, and the worst thing that could have happened to them if he stayed to serve Robb was get branded a traitor, and have a few of his offspring taken as hostage, of which he has enough already.

But I understand it could be seen as smart, because they would have thought they'd gain huge favour from the Lannisters. I myself expected them to. They could not have foreseen what would happen to them in the future regarding the Frey pies, Cat, and some other things. In the end, however, it just wasn't worth ruining their reputation forever.

[Lady Wylla Manderly]

For Tywin and the Lannister's, yes it was.

For Frey's and Bolton's, no.

But remember, they did this thing under the impression that Sansa was now a Lannister, and all the other Stark's were dead. And the dead don't come seek vengeance. Too bad (for them) that there are still five wolves (including Jon) running around, and the north remembers.

I just NEED to see more deaths from these three House's, more pies and more Stonehearting. Then I'll be happy xD

[Lummel]

The key to the red wedding, or at least to understanding why Walder frey agreed to it, is to be found in The Mystery knight. You are all reading the Dunk and Egg stories aren't you? :)

[AvengerofWinterfell]

for the Lannisters it was great, maybe even for Bolton as well seeing as how their involvement seems to either be unknown or overlooked by most of Westeros & they still managed to get rid of Rob and many of those who would seek vengeance for his murder.

I agree with you about the Frey's though. They basically did all the dirty work and got nothing but scorn and revulsion in return. Westeros despises them pretty much universally, they're dying off at an alarming rate due to war, Manderly, and UnCat, & they havent advanced much if at all in prestige. Just a bad deal all the way around.