What if Renly hadn't died?

[TheMysteriousOne]

I think it's pretty much been established that Stannis likes power. His whole 'I wonder why my brothers wanted the throne so much?' is a load of bull.

[ab aeterno]

I think it's pretty much been established that Stannis likes power. His whole 'I wonder why my brothers wanted the throne so much?' is a load of bull.

Well, of course. To some extent, everyone wants power. Name a single character who doesn't want power? But Stannis has always been more concerned with what he views as right than about power. I ask you honestly, do you think Stannis would seek the throne if a) he though Joffrey et al were legitimately Robert's children or b ) if Renly was the elder brother?

[TheMysteriousOne]

Well, of course. To some extent, everyone wants power. Name a single character who doesn't want power? But Stannis has always been more concerned with what he views as right than about power. I ask you honestly, do you think Stannis would seek the throne if a) he though Joffrey et al were legitimately Robert's children or b ) if Renly was the elder brother?

Obviously not, he would have no legitimate reason to seek the throne. That doesn't mean anything.

[ab aeterno]

Obviously not, he would have no legitimate reason to seek the throne. That doesn't mean anything.

Of course it does. Everyone seeks power, but Stannis only seeks power that he believes is rightfully his by law. That's a pretty important qualifier in my books.

[littleRickon]

I don't know if this has come up already, but let's say that Stannis was actually at Storm's end and that just for whatever reason the shadowbaby failed to kill Renly. So Stannis is forced to battle Renly and probably loses due to extremely big number difference.

There is still no battle of the blackwater! Renly doesn't have ships, I think it's fair to assume that the Redwyne fleet wasn't with them, otherwise he could have used it against Stannis. We also see in later books that it takes a very long time to bring that fleet to the east coast.

So Renly cannot hope to get his army across the blackwater with the royal fleet intact. Here the projection becomes pure speculation, because we have to guess what his strategy would be. Does he cross the blackwater at an upstream bridge and lay siege on KL? Does he seek to engage Tywin in battle before he moves onto the city? I think from this point on we are thoroughly in fan-fiction territory, as it isn't possible to predict such choices. Same goes for Tywin. Does he even leave Harrenhal in that situation? And who can say that people who thought up the RW can't think of some other, new way of dealing with this threat than just plain warfare? The whole Margery-Renly affair seems to invite a political play...

So my feeling is that we cannot know what would happen, because it changes the game too much.

[ab aeterno]

I don't know if this has come up already, but let's say that Stannis was actually at Storm's end and that just for whatever reason the shadowbaby failed to kill Renly. So Stannis is forced to battle Renly and probably loses due to extremely big number difference.

There is still no battle of the blackwater! Renly doesn't have ships, I think it's fair to assume that the Redwyne fleet wasn't with them, otherwise he could have used it against Stannis. We also see in later books that it takes a very long time to bring that fleet to the east coast.

So Renly cannot hope to get his army across the blackwater with the royal fleet intact. Here the projection becomes pure speculation, because we have to guess what his strategy would be. Does he cross the blackwater at an upstream bridge and lay siege on KL? Does he seek to engage Tywin in battle before he moves onto the city? I think from this point on we are thoroughly in fan-fiction territory, as it isn't possible to predict such choices. Same goes for Tywin. Does he even leave Harrenhal in that situation? And who can say that people who thought up the RW can't think of some other, new way of dealing with this threat than just plain warfare? The whole Margery-Renly affair seems to invite a political play...

So my feeling is that we cannot know what would happen, because it changes the game too much.

This is actually an interesting issue. Would Stannis' ships have gone over to Renly? I can't see Davos or the Queen's Men doing so...

[AdXRoss]

I don't know if this has come up already, but let's say that Stannis was actually at Storm's end and that just for whatever reason the shadowbaby failed to kill Renly. So Stannis is forced to battle Renly and probably loses due to extremely big number difference.

There is still no battle of the blackwater! Renly doesn't have ships, I think it's fair to assume that the Redwyne fleet wasn't with them, otherwise he could have used it against Stannis. We also see in later books that it takes a very long time to bring that fleet to the east coast.

So Renly cannot hope to get his army across the blackwater with the royal fleet intact. Here the projection becomes pure speculation, because we have to guess what his strategy would be. Does he cross the blackwater at an upstream bridge and lay siege on KL? Does he seek to engage Tywin in battle before he moves onto the city? I think from this point on we are thoroughly in fan-fiction territory, as it isn't possible to predict such choices. Same goes for Tywin. Does he even leave Harrenhal in that situation? And who can say that people who thought up the RW can't think of some other, new way of dealing with this threat than just plain warfare? The whole Margery-Renly affair seems to invite a political play...

So my feeling is that we cannot know what would happen, because it changes the game too much.

Indeed, the game only becomes clearcut if both Baratheon brothers are together. Although Renly would have kept the Tyrrels, ensuring no last minute cavalry coming to Joffry's rescue, Renly's pace would have remained sluggish at best and he may not have pressed the advantage quick enough to keep the Red Wedding from occurring. A lot would have depended upon how deeply Walder Frey felt slighted by Robb's betrothal and whether the gain of marrying his daughter into the Tully outline outweighed the risk of joining Tywin and Roose Bolton's scheme.

[TheMysteriousOne]

Of course it does. Everyone seeks power, but Stannis only seeks power that he believes is rightfully his by law. That's a pretty important qualifier in my books.

Many people wouldn't have reason to take the throne if they didn't believe it was their's. Stannis isn't a special case.

[E-Ro]

Nope, Aerion's son was fine, nothing was said about him being mentally unstable and yet he was passed over.

We dont know why he was passed over, I assume it was because his father was exiled. It matters not the elder comes first, why bother arguing a point you know is incorrect? Renly admits it himself saying its a stupid law.

[ab aeterno]

Many people wouldn't have reason to take the throne if they didn't believe it was their's. Stannis isn't a special case.

It is compared to Renly especially, so it's relevant to this thread.

[E-Ro]

I think it's pretty much been established that Stannis likes power. His whole 'I wonder why my brothers wanted the throne so much?' is a load of bull.

No it isnt. He does not desire power any were near the way others do. He says wants dont facter into it, its his by rights. And I beleive him when he says this as he has no reason to lie.

[Nudu]

He would be a great king!! <3<3

Until others came.

[Stannis Eats No Peaches]

Renly kills or takes Staninis prisoner. Renly takes Kings Landing. Cersei and Joffrey are beheaded, Tommen and Myrcella kept as wards. Tywin either bends the knee or gets crushed. Robb bends the knee, maybe with the title of King in the North but probably not. No RW. The North is ready to meet the wildling threat and prepares to fight the Others

[Frey Pie]

I don't know if this has come up already, but let's say that Stannis was actually at Storm's end and that just for whatever reason the shadowbaby failed to kill Renly. So Stannis is forced to battle Renly and probably loses due to extremely big number difference.

There is still no battle of the blackwater! Renly doesn't have ships, I think it's fair to assume that the Redwyne fleet wasn't with them, otherwise he could have used it against Stannis. We also see in later books that it takes a very long time to bring that fleet to the east coast.

So Renly cannot hope to get his army across the blackwater with the royal fleet intact. Here the projection becomes pure speculation, because we have to guess what his strategy would be. Does he cross the blackwater at an upstream bridge and lay siege on KL? Does he seek to engage Tywin in battle before he moves onto the city? I think from this point on we are thoroughly in fan-fiction territory, as it isn't possible to predict such choices. Same goes for Tywin. Does he even leave Harrenhal in that situation? And who can say that people who thought up the RW can't think of some other, new way of dealing with this threat than just plain warfare? The whole Margery-Renly affair seems to invite a political play...

So my feeling is that we cannot know what would happen, because it changes the game too much.

Well i think its still supremely simple for Renly to take KL. The Royal Fleet patrols the BW Bay and i imagine a small way up the river. Renly can easily go west a bit, accross the Blackwater Rush and invest the city from Land. Im pretty sure he could take it with his first assault. There are six gates assaultable by land. 10000 at each gate and i dont think 7000 defenders can do anything about it. Alternatively he can just kick back and the city will win itself. They can be resupplied by sea but where will they get the food? And enough for over 400000 people? The city would implode in weeks if not days. Its more likely for Stannis to defeat Renly at SE then Renly not taking KL.

Redwyne fleet was at home as Cersei had both Paxters sons as guests

[Lord Bronn Stokeworth]

1 Not unlike Stannis...

2 Not unlike Stannis...

3 And replacing Cersei and her merry company is a value in itself. That's the point: Baratheon Bros. Entertainment was disastrous for House Baratheon itself, and the Lannisters reaped the benefits. "I begin to think that Robert was the smart one", Cersei commented, and at that point Cersei was right.

1. Not at all. Joffery was not family, and Stannis knew it. Renly was the aggressor. By any law in the land, Stannis was Robert's heir before Renly.

He was not taking what was Renly's. It was Renly trying to take what was his (or Joffery's).

He was willing to kill Renly to prevent Renly from killing him and/or taking his crown. But that is *different.

2. Fully agreed. Both would have given Robb a chance to surrender before attacking him. I was not suggesting Stannis do otherwise. Merely pointing out a man so filled with greed that he would happily kill his own family for power would not just let another walk away with a good chunk of it.

3. I disagree. Replacing corruption with other corruption rarely helps.

*In short, using my statement as the basis for a statement, Stannis is not guilty. You can disagree with my assumption of course. But that is a different discussion entirely and requires more than simply equating Stannis with Renly without rejecting the underlining principle of my statement (there is a difference between a robber willing to kill a person to get their stuff and a person willing to kill the robber to protect their own life and stuff).

If you wish to argue this point, I may or may not join in. This is a VERY personal issue and easy for me to get worked up about.

[Castel]

Yes but dragonstone was given to stann, the seat of the kings heir. Dragonstone was given to renly, why is that an example of an elder brother not coming first?

Wasnt arion brightflames son mentally unstable? And targ succesion is different from andal succesion. For example a lords daughter comes before his brother but for targs daughters come last of all.

Nope. Targ succession is basically the same as Westerosi succession, which they were forced to adopt.

[ckal]

Renly would have won, thus uniting and making peace with the vast majority of Westeros and the story would basically be over.

So I think Renly's death was pretty integral to this whole series continuing.

[Rolex Baratheon]

I think that's true, however how do we know the Lannisters wouldn't assassinate him in a way they did Robb Stark. What if while Renly is sieging Kings Landing, the Freys invite him to the wedding of Edmure and Roslin and then the Red Wedding has one more casualty! :o

Because that's physically and chronologically impossible?

[James Arryn]

how did he become inevitable?

By being the person everyone involved assumed was on hi way to being king. Even the disconnected Northmen cite him before Stannis when talking about which King to support. I think the plot mae it fairly evident. Hence shadow baby. Otherwise, why shadow baby?

And what exact logistics did he show that bared such a capable hand?

The logistics involved in running a hundred thousand man army. Feeding, arming, keeping cohesion, etc. Pretty much the definition of military logistics.

He merely married and made queen the daughter of the second most powerful and wealthiest man within the realm. That doesn't take tact.

I don't agree that's all he did, and I don't agree that doing that wouldn't take tact.

[Guardian of the Lhazareen]

If Stannis died at SE I am very sure his fleet will have defected to Renly !